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allycat
allycat
·
2021-07-27
Breaking out
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allycat
allycat
·
2021-07-26
New week and marching towards the green patches
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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allycat
allycat
·
2021-07-26
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$
depressed 😰
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allycat
allycat
·
2021-07-10
Power of imagination
5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次载人太空飞行需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote>
Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling s
5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次载人太空飞行需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote>
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allycat
allycat
·
2021-06-24
Follow the lead
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allycat
allycat
·
2021-06-24
Wow
The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>
5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over. One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan
The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>
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allycat
allycat
·
2021-06-23
Wow
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allycat
allycat
·
2021-06-16
This has been the case 10 years ago and under scrutiny only now. Nothing will change.
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allycat
allycat
·
2021-06-11
Time to buy
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allycat
allycat
·
2021-06-11
Potential?
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out","listText":"Breaking out","text":"Breaking out","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09cc9d35f5e649c2c3ce4770c97b817a","width":"1080","height":"2449"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803912279","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800055852,"gmtCreate":1627267637876,"gmtModify":1631884081674,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"New week and marching towards the green patches","listText":"New week and marching towards the green patches","text":"New week and marching towards the green patches","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800055852","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800056396,"gmtCreate":1627267521015,"gmtModify":1633766689481,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>depressed 😰","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>depressed 😰","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$depressed 😰","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e5c9bcee8149e32807dbe4ba87197ca","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800056396","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148938102,"gmtCreate":1625912304306,"gmtModify":1631888657826,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Power of imagination ","listText":"Power of imagination ","text":"Power of imagination","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148938102","repostId":"1159307278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159307278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625873648,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1159307278?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 07:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次载人太空飞行需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159307278","media":"Barrons","summary":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling s","content":"<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德-布兰森（Richard Branson）计划于周日飞往太空，这可能是羽翼未丰的太空旅游业的一个里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着 70 岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次载人太空之旅，比杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运飞行早一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些近期历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河 Unity 22 太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午 9 点左右从维珍位于新墨西哥州的航天港发射升空。发布会可在公司网站和《巴伦周刊》下方进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会在太空中飞多高？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河公司的 VSS Unity 飞船的速度将达到约 3 马赫，即音速的三倍，上升到约 30 万英尺，即 57 英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的 10 倍，但仍被认为是太空边缘。亚轨道飞行不会经过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来界定外层空间边界的。这条线大约有62英里长。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划在航班上带乘客经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。将有两名飞行员加入公司创始人的行列；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教官；科林·贝内特，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁 Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord 分析师肯-赫伯特（Ken Herbert）认为，银河影城有可能通过让一位付费客户加入布兰森来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将于本月晚些时候搭载第一位付费乘客进入太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>此次飞行对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使银河距离全面商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面运行，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的成本约为 5400 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计 Galactic 2021 年销售额约为 300 万美元，2022 年增长至 5100 万美元，2025 年增长至 5.55 亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在 2024 年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>这次飞行和相关的新闻报道也代表了该公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说是一个明显的积极因素，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经计入了维珍银河的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约 120%，过去 12 个月上涨超过 200%，这家初创公司的市值约为 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功逃亡后周一没有上涨，投资者也不应失望。公司的最终价值将在未来确定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师在该股便宜时喜欢它。早在 9 月份，所有研究 Galactic 评级股票的分析师都买入。标普500股票的平均买入评级比率约为 55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9 月份股价为 25 美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股 50 美元以上，只有 30% 的分析师给予股票买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次载人太空飞行需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次载人太空飞行需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 07:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德-布兰森（Richard Branson）计划于周日飞往太空，这可能是羽翼未丰的太空旅游业的一个里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着 70 岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次载人太空之旅，比杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运飞行早一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些近期历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河 Unity 22 太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午 9 点左右从维珍位于新墨西哥州的航天港发射升空。发布会可在公司网站和《巴伦周刊》下方进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会在太空中飞多高？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河公司的 VSS Unity 飞船的速度将达到约 3 马赫，即音速的三倍，上升到约 30 万英尺，即 57 英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的 10 倍，但仍被认为是太空边缘。亚轨道飞行不会经过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来界定外层空间边界的。这条线大约有62英里长。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划在航班上带乘客经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。将有两名飞行员加入公司创始人的行列；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教官；科林·贝内特，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁 Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord 分析师肯-赫伯特（Ken Herbert）认为，银河影城有可能通过让一位付费客户加入布兰森来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将于本月晚些时候搭载第一位付费乘客进入太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>此次飞行对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使银河距离全面商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面运行，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的成本约为 5400 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计 Galactic 2021 年销售额约为 300 万美元，2022 年增长至 5100 万美元，2025 年增长至 5.55 亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在 2024 年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>这次飞行和相关的新闻报道也代表了该公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说是一个明显的积极因素，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经计入了维珍银河的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约 120%，过去 12 个月上涨超过 200%，这家初创公司的市值约为 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功逃亡后周一没有上涨，投资者也不应失望。公司的最终价值将在未来确定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师在该股便宜时喜欢它。早在 9 月份，所有研究 Galactic 评级股票的分析师都买入。标普500股票的平均买入评级比率约为 55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9 月份股价为 25 美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股 50 美元以上，只有 30% 的分析师给予股票买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159307278","content_text":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.\nHere’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.\nWhen Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?\nThe Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.\nHow High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?\nGalactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.\nBlue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.\nHow Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?\nNothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.\nStill, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.\nA move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.\nA ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.\nWhat Does the Flight Mean for Investors?\nThe continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.\nOnce fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.\nAnalysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.\nThe flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.\nHow Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?\nA successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.\n\nThe stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.\nInvestors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.\nAnalysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.\nShares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126105753,"gmtCreate":1624546503772,"gmtModify":1634004544710,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Follow the lead","listText":"Follow the lead","text":"Follow the lead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126105753","repostId":"1162964404","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126102430,"gmtCreate":1624546457920,"gmtModify":1634004546001,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126102430","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p> <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b> One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b> <b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b> One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b> <b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123603736,"gmtCreate":1624418803125,"gmtModify":1634006381027,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123603736","repostId":"2145066828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169022342,"gmtCreate":1623809786886,"gmtModify":1634027775430,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This has been the case 10 years ago and under scrutiny only now. Nothing will change.","listText":"This has been the case 10 years ago and under scrutiny only now. Nothing will change.","text":"This has been the case 10 years ago and under scrutiny only now. Nothing will change.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169022342","repostId":"1195581477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181508707,"gmtCreate":1623399705009,"gmtModify":1631885484940,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181508707","repostId":"2142274958","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181500872,"gmtCreate":1623399554396,"gmtModify":1634033749608,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Potential?","listText":"Potential?","text":"Potential?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5106b728cefdfedf08f2d7fb626bd842","width":"1080","height":"2189"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181500872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}