社区
首页
集团介绍
社区
资讯
行情
学堂
TigerAI
登录
注册
逍遥谷古月轩
IP属地:未知
+关注
帖子 · 34
帖子 · 34
关注 · 0
关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0
粉丝 · 0
逍遥谷古月轩
逍遥谷古月轩
·
2021-12-30
$MU 20211231 93.0 CALL$
好
看
1,461
回复
评论
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
逍遥谷古月轩
逍遥谷古月轩
·
2021-12-29
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
未来能达到多少呢?
看
1,548
回复
评论
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
逍遥谷古月轩
逍遥谷古月轩
·
2021-12-23
$MU 20211231 93.0 CALL$
不知今天股价能否破94
看
1,844
回复
2
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
逍遥谷古月轩
逍遥谷古月轩
·
2021-12-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
那些看空500的酸葡萄不知哪里去了
看
1,377
回复
1
点赞
6
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
逍遥谷古月轩
逍遥谷古月轩
·
2021-12-17
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
900强力支撑
看
1,574
回复
2
点赞
5
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
逍遥谷古月轩
逍遥谷古月轩
·
2021-12-14
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
以史为鉴:当美联储开始加息,会发生什么?
如果市场预期正确,明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。 当美联储加息时,通常会发生什么? 德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现,从首次加息算起,通常加息第一年经济增长
以史为鉴:当美联储开始加息,会发生什么?
看
1,531
回复
评论
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
逍遥谷古月轩
逍遥谷古月轩
·
2021-12-07
$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$
这种股况还是稳稳的
看
1,976
回复
1
点赞
7
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
逍遥谷古月轩
逍遥谷古月轩
·
2021-12-01
$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$
超出预期 继续看涨 中期缺芯都是利好芯片股
$AMD(AMD)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
看
1,836
回复
评论
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
逍遥谷古月轩
逍遥谷古月轩
·
2021-11-29
$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$
能走得多远呢
看
1,452
回复
评论
点赞
3
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
逍遥谷古月轩
逍遥谷古月轩
·
2021-11-26
继续看多到12月
美股 GFS 有解决全球芯片短缺的方案
@美股投资网:
$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$ 提供代工服务并制造半导体。它提供全球班车、面具、后制造和交钥匙服务。该公司于今年 10 月底通过首次公开募股 (IPO) 上市,目前已经宣布与$福特汽车(F)$ 合作,GFS 股价有望走高。由于大流行和消费者对个人电脑、平板电脑和手机等科技产品的偏好,全球芯片短缺,在封锁期间在家工作等新趋势的兴起加剧了这种短缺。并使租车、购买 PlayStation 5或做几乎任何涉及计算机的其他事情变得更加困难。你可能会认为电子和汽车等行业所用芯片的供需失衡为GFS创造了竞争优势。但是并非这样,答案是双重的。全球芯片短缺将持续到 2022 年年中研究和咨询公司Gartner(代号:IT)在一份新闻稿中提到,“全球半导体短缺将持续到 2021 年,预计到 2022 年第二季度将恢复到正常水平。”造成这种全球芯片短缺的原因可能是各类企业的计划不周。国际数据公司 (IDC) 半导体集团项目副总裁Mario Morales表示:“当你对大流行感到震惊时,如果没有业务连续性计划,就很难运营。”美国对其他国家实施的贸易制裁以及手机的 5G 推出是加剧全球芯片短缺的其他原因。在这种环境下,GFS正在大力投资以结束全球芯片短缺——通过提高生产力以及与福特战略联盟。福特、格芯宣布异业结盟GFS于 2021 年 11 月 18 日宣布,已与福特建立重要合作伙伴关系。它提到,该合作伙伴关系是“推动美国境内半导体制造和技术发展的战略合作,旨在促进福特和美国汽车行业的芯片供应。”它还表示,“两家公司签署了一项不具约束力的协议,
美股 GFS 有解决全球芯片短缺的方案
看
1,066
回复
评论
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
加载更多
暂无粉丝
热议股票
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3575448027714632","uuid":"3575448027714632","gmtCreate":1612355658391,"gmtModify":1612362088329,"name":"逍遥谷古月轩","pinyin":"xyggyxxiaoyaoguguyuexuan","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":8,"headSize":25,"tweetSize":34,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":3,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.01.15","exceedPercentage":"93.68%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.50%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.06.19","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":692029218,"gmtCreate":1640794593045,"gmtModify":1640794593229,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575448027714632","authorIdStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20211231 93.0 CALL\">$MU 20211231 93.0 CALL$ </a>好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20211231 93.0 CALL\">$MU 20211231 93.0 CALL$ </a>好","text":"$MU 20211231 93.0 CALL$ 好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd01d68aaba950ef7fd7102e636b4a59","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692029218","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696776582,"gmtCreate":1640784194860,"gmtModify":1640784195089,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575448027714632","authorIdStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>未来能达到多少呢?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>未来能达到多少呢?","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$未来能达到多少呢?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9983457d1fd7fa4c1f0d7c6c69177ab9","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696776582","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698997150,"gmtCreate":1640272539580,"gmtModify":1640272539704,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575448027714632","authorIdStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20211231 93.0 CALL\">$MU 20211231 93.0 CALL$ </a>不知今天股价能否破94","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20211231 93.0 CALL\">$MU 20211231 93.0 CALL$ </a>不知今天股价能否破94","text":"$MU 20211231 93.0 CALL$ 不知今天股价能否破94","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59ee9a766af7908aa2f7dbbe1a681ddc","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698997150","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691208356,"gmtCreate":1640189677394,"gmtModify":1640189677525,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575448027714632","authorIdStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>那些看空500的酸葡萄不知哪里去了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>那些看空500的酸葡萄不知哪里去了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$那些看空500的酸葡萄不知哪里去了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/882697e5147428d82382e2c7dd10d688","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691208356","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699045648,"gmtCreate":1639729102121,"gmtModify":1639729102252,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575448027714632","authorIdStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>900强力支撑","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>900强力支撑","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$900强力支撑","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39a6dd12a245d1d6ba218785eddea41","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699045648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607313163,"gmtCreate":1639488218469,"gmtModify":1639488218578,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575448027714632","authorIdStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607313163","repostId":"2191931329","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2191931329","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639474969,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2191931329?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 17:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴:当美联储开始加息,会发生什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191931329","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"如果市场预期正确,明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。\n当美联储加息时,通常会发生什么?\n德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现,从首次加息算起,通常加息第一年经济增长","content":"<p>如果市场预期正确,明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。</p>\n<p>当美联储加息时,通常会发生什么?</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现,从首次加息算起,<b>通常加息第一年经济增长保持强劲,通胀继续上升,股市继续上涨,信贷紧缩,债券收益率曲线趋平;到了第二年,经济增长开始放缓,股市趋于平稳,信贷开始扩大,债券收益率下降。</b></p>\n<p><b>自1955年以来,一共有13个独立的加息周期,平均时间不到2年。</b>如果从宣布加息当天开始计算,<b>历史上的衰退则平均会在3-3.5年后出现。</b>不过,1980年的加息到1981年的衰退只隔了11个月,但1983年的加息到1990年的衰退则隔了86个月。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31efda7cdde544625b45a04a91847f0\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>常见的一个模式是,<b>增长放缓通常发生在加息的一年后</b>。这与货币政策的滞后性有关,一般货币政策的全面效应可能需要几个季度才能显现。</p>\n<p>考虑到加息后最早出现衰退的时间是11个月,那么<b>从统计上看,2022年出现负增长的可能性很低</b>。如果历史可信的话,这种可能性将从2023年起不断增加。</p>\n<h2>加息周期中的宏观经济</h2>\n<p>在加息开启之后,<b>名义和实际GDP都会在第二年开始出现增速放缓,但通胀并没有这个趋势。</b></p>\n<p>平均而言,在加息周期的第一年,实际GDP增长为+4.8%,但在第二年放缓至+2.7%,第三年为+2.1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8993e9e70f1a67a81fcd4c8aefc2ab7c\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在紧缩周期开始后,名义GDP中也出现同样的现象。第一年平均增长8.5%,但第二年放缓至6.5%,第三年增长5.8%,这是一个主要的趋势。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06d1d87d68cf5570c03d53192fab33a\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>然而在通胀方面并没有类似的现象。通胀可能是加息周期开始的主要原因,但历史表明,抑制通胀需要一段时间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5108efa691e5735afce776a9feefe7\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>平均而言,通货膨胀率已经从第一次加息后一年的+3.8%上升到第二年的+4.5%。也就是说,这在很大程度上是一种相关性而非因果关系,因为加息周期开始的首要原因往往是通胀压力,而通胀具有惯性。</p>\n<h2>加息周期中的资本市场</h2>\n<p>加息周期开启后,<b>股指与债券收益率变化相似,通常在首次加息的9个月到一年后开始走低</b>。</p>\n<p>标准500普尔指数的平均价格在加息周期的第一年往往有坚实的增长,一年后的平均回报率为7.7%。<b>在紧缩周期开始后的253天后回报率开始走低,直到第452天后才突破这个最高值。</b></p>\n<p>平均而言,在13个加息周期中,标普500指数在周期开始后的9-10个月里平均回报均不为正,<b>但紧缩两年后,指数开始上涨。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3661883cf2b94b5451fc8dbc75d7b9d3\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>10年期美国国债收益率也是类似的变化。在加息第一年,平均收益率上升超过111个基点,但不久之后收益率又开始下降。实际上加息周期的第二和第三年都在下降。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是,<b>在首次加息前的12个月里,收益率往往会下降,但在首次加息结束后又开始上升。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cd7733f4ae7e7deaeaf508f82c8ef5c\" tg-width=\"1180\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>而通常用作衰退指标的美国国债2s10s利差曲线斜率,<b>在加息的第一年有一个明显的趋平趋势,在之后转为稳定。</b></p>\n<p>在加息开始时,2s10s曲线以平均100个基点的绝对水平开始,在周期开始一年后,曲线趋于平缓。在13个加息周期的样本的6个案例中,该曲线在一年后发生反转。因为从反转到衰退通常只需要不到18个月,而从首次加息到衰退通常需要3-3.5年。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddd3823d782476c112c09fcae4588ff\" tg-width=\"782\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>信贷方面,从历史上看,<b>BBB信用利差在加息第一年会收窄,大约收窄47个基点。之后利差趋于扩大,在加息周期开始三年后几乎回到原本水平。</b>在首次加息开始时,又会出现显著变化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faf41f9cb4fded40d7d067946114d89\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>因此,如果历史是可信的,当美联储在2022年上半年首次加息时,它将在随后的两到三年内对经济和金融市场产生影响。</p>\n<p>当然,这一次可能会有所不同,这是一个不寻常的周期,不过历史分析中已经出现了不容忽视的明显趋势。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴:当美联储开始加息,会发生什么?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴:当美联储开始加息,会发生什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 17:42 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647246><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>如果市场预期正确,明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。\n当美联储加息时,通常会发生什么?\n德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现,从首次加息算起,通常加息第一年经济增长保持强劲,通胀继续上升,股市继续上涨,信贷紧缩,债券收益率曲线趋平;到了第二年,经济增长开始放缓,股市趋于平稳,信贷开始扩大,债券收益率下降。\n自1955年以来,一共有13个独立的加息周期,平均时间...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647246\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647246","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191931329","content_text":"如果市场预期正确,明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。\n当美联储加息时,通常会发生什么?\n德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现,从首次加息算起,通常加息第一年经济增长保持强劲,通胀继续上升,股市继续上涨,信贷紧缩,债券收益率曲线趋平;到了第二年,经济增长开始放缓,股市趋于平稳,信贷开始扩大,债券收益率下降。\n自1955年以来,一共有13个独立的加息周期,平均时间不到2年。如果从宣布加息当天开始计算,历史上的衰退则平均会在3-3.5年后出现。不过,1980年的加息到1981年的衰退只隔了11个月,但1983年的加息到1990年的衰退则隔了86个月。\n\n常见的一个模式是,增长放缓通常发生在加息的一年后。这与货币政策的滞后性有关,一般货币政策的全面效应可能需要几个季度才能显现。\n考虑到加息后最早出现衰退的时间是11个月,那么从统计上看,2022年出现负增长的可能性很低。如果历史可信的话,这种可能性将从2023年起不断增加。\n加息周期中的宏观经济\n在加息开启之后,名义和实际GDP都会在第二年开始出现增速放缓,但通胀并没有这个趋势。\n平均而言,在加息周期的第一年,实际GDP增长为+4.8%,但在第二年放缓至+2.7%,第三年为+2.1%。\n\n在紧缩周期开始后,名义GDP中也出现同样的现象。第一年平均增长8.5%,但第二年放缓至6.5%,第三年增长5.8%,这是一个主要的趋势。\n\n然而在通胀方面并没有类似的现象。通胀可能是加息周期开始的主要原因,但历史表明,抑制通胀需要一段时间。\n\n平均而言,通货膨胀率已经从第一次加息后一年的+3.8%上升到第二年的+4.5%。也就是说,这在很大程度上是一种相关性而非因果关系,因为加息周期开始的首要原因往往是通胀压力,而通胀具有惯性。\n加息周期中的资本市场\n加息周期开启后,股指与债券收益率变化相似,通常在首次加息的9个月到一年后开始走低。\n标准500普尔指数的平均价格在加息周期的第一年往往有坚实的增长,一年后的平均回报率为7.7%。在紧缩周期开始后的253天后回报率开始走低,直到第452天后才突破这个最高值。\n平均而言,在13个加息周期中,标普500指数在周期开始后的9-10个月里平均回报均不为正,但紧缩两年后,指数开始上涨。\n\n10年期美国国债收益率也是类似的变化。在加息第一年,平均收益率上升超过111个基点,但不久之后收益率又开始下降。实际上加息周期的第二和第三年都在下降。\n值得注意的是,在首次加息前的12个月里,收益率往往会下降,但在首次加息结束后又开始上升。\n\n而通常用作衰退指标的美国国债2s10s利差曲线斜率,在加息的第一年有一个明显的趋平趋势,在之后转为稳定。\n在加息开始时,2s10s曲线以平均100个基点的绝对水平开始,在周期开始一年后,曲线趋于平缓。在13个加息周期的样本的6个案例中,该曲线在一年后发生反转。因为从反转到衰退通常只需要不到18个月,而从首次加息到衰退通常需要3-3.5年。\n\n信贷方面,从历史上看,BBB信用利差在加息第一年会收窄,大约收窄47个基点。之后利差趋于扩大,在加息周期开始三年后几乎回到原本水平。在首次加息开始时,又会出现显著变化。\n\n因此,如果历史是可信的,当美联储在2022年上半年首次加息时,它将在随后的两到三年内对经济和金融市场产生影响。\n当然,这一次可能会有所不同,这是一个不寻常的周期,不过历史分析中已经出现了不容忽视的明显趋势。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606212807,"gmtCreate":1638884503057,"gmtModify":1638884503200,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575448027714632","authorIdStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a> 这种股况还是稳稳的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a> 这种股况还是稳稳的","text":"$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$ 这种股况还是稳稳的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca84dd98b7ede4b61177a34bc6efc795","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606212807","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603084171,"gmtCreate":1638339865223,"gmtModify":1638339871366,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575448027714632","authorIdStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a>超出预期 继续看涨 中期缺芯都是利好芯片股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a>超出预期 继续看涨 中期缺芯都是利好芯片股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>","text":"$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$超出预期 继续看涨 中期缺芯都是利好芯片股$AMD(AMD)$$英伟达(NVDA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294ac3812a3f32e34702d056b2583418","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603084171","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600730503,"gmtCreate":1638196831919,"gmtModify":1638196832107,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575448027714632","authorIdStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a>能走得多远呢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a>能走得多远呢","text":"$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$能走得多远呢","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6aa674cb6b0180bf74a9a07a4f58608","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600730503","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877245716,"gmtCreate":1637938807003,"gmtModify":1637938807138,"author":{"id":"3575448027714632","authorId":"3575448027714632","name":"逍遥谷古月轩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193c93c39721e3cf4d8c84c21f1a9e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575448027714632","authorIdStr":"3575448027714632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"继续看多到12月","listText":"继续看多到12月","text":"继续看多到12月","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877245716","repostId":"874473898","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":874473898,"gmtCreate":1637817282682,"gmtModify":1637926749193,"author":{"id":"3478213283465426","authorId":"3478213283465426","name":"美股投资网","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1bfd2cf1aa240d7058795c83d419510","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3478213283465426","authorIdStr":"3478213283465426"},"themes":[],"title":"美股 GFS 有解决全球芯片短缺的方案","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a> 提供代工服务并制造半导体。它提供全球班车、面具、后制造和交钥匙服务。该公司于今年 10 月底通过首次公开募股 (IPO) 上市,目前已经宣布与<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$福特汽车(F)$</a> 合作,GFS 股价有望走高。由于大流行和消费者对个人电脑、平板电脑和手机等科技产品的偏好,全球芯片短缺,在封锁期间在家工作等新趋势的兴起加剧了这种短缺。并使租车、购买 PlayStation 5或做几乎任何涉及计算机的其他事情变得更加困难。你可能会认为电子和汽车等行业所用芯片的供需失衡为GFS创造了竞争优势。但是并非这样,答案是双重的。全球芯片短缺将持续到 2022 年年中研究和咨询公司Gartner(代号:IT)在一份新闻稿中提到,“全球半导体短缺将持续到 2021 年,预计到 2022 年第二季度将恢复到正常水平。”造成这种全球芯片短缺的原因可能是各类企业的计划不周。国际数据公司 (IDC) 半导体集团项目副总裁Mario Morales表示:“当你对大流行感到震惊时,如果没有业务连续性计划,就很难运营。”美国对其他国家实施的贸易制裁以及手机的 5G 推出是加剧全球芯片短缺的其他原因。在这种环境下,GFS正在大力投资以结束全球芯片短缺——通过提高生产力以及与福特战略联盟。福特、格芯宣布异业结盟GFS于 2021 年 11 月 18 日宣布,已与福特建立重要合作伙伴关系。它提到,该合作伙伴关系是“推动美国境内半导体制造和技术发展的战略合作,旨在促进福特和美国汽车行业的芯片供应。”它还表示,“两家公司签署了一项不具约束力的协议,","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a> 提供代工服务并制造半导体。它提供全球班车、面具、后制造和交钥匙服务。该公司于今年 10 月底通过首次公开募股 (IPO) 上市,目前已经宣布与<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$福特汽车(F)$</a> 合作,GFS 股价有望走高。由于大流行和消费者对个人电脑、平板电脑和手机等科技产品的偏好,全球芯片短缺,在封锁期间在家工作等新趋势的兴起加剧了这种短缺。并使租车、购买 PlayStation 5或做几乎任何涉及计算机的其他事情变得更加困难。你可能会认为电子和汽车等行业所用芯片的供需失衡为GFS创造了竞争优势。但是并非这样,答案是双重的。全球芯片短缺将持续到 2022 年年中研究和咨询公司Gartner(代号:IT)在一份新闻稿中提到,“全球半导体短缺将持续到 2021 年,预计到 2022 年第二季度将恢复到正常水平。”造成这种全球芯片短缺的原因可能是各类企业的计划不周。国际数据公司 (IDC) 半导体集团项目副总裁Mario Morales表示:“当你对大流行感到震惊时,如果没有业务连续性计划,就很难运营。”美国对其他国家实施的贸易制裁以及手机的 5G 推出是加剧全球芯片短缺的其他原因。在这种环境下,GFS正在大力投资以结束全球芯片短缺——通过提高生产力以及与福特战略联盟。福特、格芯宣布异业结盟GFS于 2021 年 11 月 18 日宣布,已与福特建立重要合作伙伴关系。它提到,该合作伙伴关系是“推动美国境内半导体制造和技术发展的战略合作,旨在促进福特和美国汽车行业的芯片供应。”它还表示,“两家公司签署了一项不具约束力的协议,","text":"$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$ 提供代工服务并制造半导体。它提供全球班车、面具、后制造和交钥匙服务。该公司于今年 10 月底通过首次公开募股 (IPO) 上市,目前已经宣布与$福特汽车(F)$ 合作,GFS 股价有望走高。由于大流行和消费者对个人电脑、平板电脑和手机等科技产品的偏好,全球芯片短缺,在封锁期间在家工作等新趋势的兴起加剧了这种短缺。并使租车、购买 PlayStation 5或做几乎任何涉及计算机的其他事情变得更加困难。你可能会认为电子和汽车等行业所用芯片的供需失衡为GFS创造了竞争优势。但是并非这样,答案是双重的。全球芯片短缺将持续到 2022 年年中研究和咨询公司Gartner(代号:IT)在一份新闻稿中提到,“全球半导体短缺将持续到 2021 年,预计到 2022 年第二季度将恢复到正常水平。”造成这种全球芯片短缺的原因可能是各类企业的计划不周。国际数据公司 (IDC) 半导体集团项目副总裁Mario Morales表示:“当你对大流行感到震惊时,如果没有业务连续性计划,就很难运营。”美国对其他国家实施的贸易制裁以及手机的 5G 推出是加剧全球芯片短缺的其他原因。在这种环境下,GFS正在大力投资以结束全球芯片短缺——通过提高生产力以及与福特战略联盟。福特、格芯宣布异业结盟GFS于 2021 年 11 月 18 日宣布,已与福特建立重要合作伙伴关系。它提到,该合作伙伴关系是“推动美国境内半导体制造和技术发展的战略合作,旨在促进福特和美国汽车行业的芯片供应。”它还表示,“两家公司签署了一项不具约束力的协议,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ae5fd2ae29aacff71a1c661c4db8536","width":"552","height":"610"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/662ff7aeaebfba8862a68a330c609a94","width":"688","height":"481"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0d707697cec38fc6f36d6b1e6c6e06e","width":"688","height":"397"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874473898","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}