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- adam888888adam888888
  ·2021-10-05
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$本钱27拉到现在，晕😵
  1,100 评论
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- adam888888adam888888
  ·2021-08-22
  厉害👍🏻
  中概股的未来
  中概股近期的大幅偏离纳指，说明是其他宏观因子主导了价格运动。图四中概股指数与纳指的偏离达到历史极值。中概股的公司相当部分是中国最具成长性的公司。一句话，中概股的未来就是港股化和边缘化，这个过程可能要持续到中美地缘政治关系出现新阶段为止。比尔黄见证了中概股最辉煌的时期和亲历了辉煌开始结束。
  中概股的未来
  1,786 评论
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- adam888888adam888888
  ·2021-08-21
  厉害👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,419 1
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- adam888888adam888888
  ·2021-08-20
  对
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,556 5
  8
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- adam888888adam888888
  ·2021-08-19
  厉害👍🏻
  投资者现金持有量达一年最高，在害怕什么？
  美银调查显示，投资者纷纷增持现金，经济增长预期下降。
  投资者现金持有量达一年最高，在害怕什么？
  1,379 评论
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- adam888888adam888888
  ·2021-08-13
  $富途控股(FUTU)$吐血
  1,666 评论
  点赞
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- adam888888adam888888
  ·2021-07-30
  $快手-W(01024)$趁快手股价那么低，快进场了
  3,840 3
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- adam888888adam888888
  ·2021-07-23
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$快点进老虎🐯，老虎要涨了，只要他不跌破16就会飞飞飞
  1,348 评论
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- adam888888adam888888
  ·2021-07-23
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$昨天涨8%今天跌10% 真强
  2,608 1
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- adam888888adam888888
  ·2021-07-20
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$简直是烂股，大盘都往上，投资板块也是往上，就是你和futu还有狮子往下，真的是烂股烂股烂股
  1,514 评论
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09:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中概股的未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182861188","media":"全球宏观投机","summary":"中概股近期的大幅偏离纳指，说明是其他宏观因子主导了价格运动。图四中概股指数与纳指的偏离达到历史极值。中概股的公司相当部分是中国最具成长性的公司。一句话，中概股的未来就是港股化和边缘化，这个过程可能要持续到中美地缘政治关系出现新阶段为止。比尔黄见证了中概股最辉煌的时期和亲历了辉煌开始结束。","content":"<p><b>什么是全球宏观视角</b></p>\n<p>全球宏观作为一种富有特色的投资和交易类别，侧重从全球以及各国经济周期、金融条件和地缘政治的视角寻求中期的大型资产价格运动机会，这个价格变动方向，可以向上，也可以向下。全球宏观思路用于资产配置，最典型的是斯文森时代的耶鲁捐赠基金；而用于更加灵活多变的交易，最典型的是德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯共同管理时代的量子基金。</p>\n<p>金融危机以后，全球宏观交易方式受到很大的质疑，原因在于这种风格的基金近些年的表现不如人意。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56d17afac58a03d34f987776cb9caeb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>图一&nbsp; &nbsp;宏观对冲基金表现不佳</b></p>\n<p><b>中概股的独特宏观因子</b></p>\n<p>我们把实际影响资产价格的投资者大脑中的偏见称之为宏观因子，或者价格驱动因素。略有经验的投资者都知道，影响资产价格的因素非常多，很多都是微观或者产业因素。我们命名为宏观，并不是说一定是宏观经济数据或者事件才会影响价格，而是泛指各种持续长期对价格产生真实影响的变量。比如，有人研究了北京雾霾对投资者情绪的影响，雾霾天投资者情绪总体偏低，更容易卖出而不是买进。但是这并不是我们所讲的宏观因子，因为它对资产价格的影响不是持续有效的。但是，公司盈利增速预期就是影响股票价格的宏观因子，因为几乎在任何时候，这个变量都会影响投资者对股票和市场的感知，从而促使投资者做出买卖行为。</p>\n<p>那么，影响中概股的宏观因子有哪些呢？</p>\n<p>首先考察中国经济周期、金融条件与中概股的关系。我们发现，中概股与中国经济周期关联之紧密，完全不亚于A50股票指数，而在市场表现方面，中概股与A50的相关性也略强。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/300a12ca677a0fd4785103236eb19cfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>图二 中国经济基本面与中概股指数</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e3524abfeebfafd9bb4c4c966d6998\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>图三 中概股、A50与创业板</b></p>\n<p>我中概股与大股票相关性更强，说明这些公司与经济周期的关联度更高，同时，投资者对股票的评估很大程度上面依赖于经济前景的判断。</p>\n<p>其二、我们考察中概股与纳斯达克指数的关系。平均看，过去五年，中概股与纳指的线性相关系数达到了0.7，而最近的相关系数下降到0.44。中概股近期的大幅偏离纳指，说明是其他宏观因子主导了价格运动。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efa4c73e5ae6b81ddfa0938211f2231\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>图四中概股指数与纳指的偏离达到历史极值</b></p>\n<p>其三、中概股目前大跌的原因是什么？</p>\n<p>显然是中国最近出台的一系列监管政策，使得市场的不确定性大增。中概股这个特征跟A股完全类似，对经济政策、监管政策的变化非常敏感。但是，中概股这次大跌多了一层额外的不确定性：中美关系严重影响中概股的表现，从而成为一个真正长期影响价格的宏观因子。</p>\n<p>从这个角度讲，中概股未来充满颠簸，因为地缘政治的不确定性是最坏的不确定性，很难事先规划，一旦发生，市场波动的速度极快，同时，不确定性发展过程也非常曲折，比如今晚中国证监会表达对金融市场以及稳定资本市场预期的善意，这个时候市场就会猛烈的反弹。通常很难评估不确定性发展的阶段以及何时确认结束。</p>\n<p>那么当下的不确定性消失了吗？短期市场的紧张情绪应该得到了缓和，可能支持中概股有一波反弹，但是就中长期来看，中美两国的监管政策、地缘政治的变化，已经成为了中概股投资的一个基本影响变量。</p>\n<p>中概股的未来</p>\n<p>中概股的公司相当部分是中国最具成长性的公司。这是比尔黄押注这些股票的主要理由，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>，中国的音乐付费市场才刚刚启动，还有无数消费场景可以引入付费音乐。但这的确是一个长期充满曲折的过程。从这个角度讲，中概股依然有一些非常优秀的上市公司，其中必然有一些在未来成为伟大的公司，其股票也会创造极大的增值。</p>\n<p>然而，中概股面临两个巨大的挑战：一是中国经济政策的冲击，这种冲击在最近开始变得频繁，二是地缘政治的冲击。资本市场会成为中美角逐的一个战场，而中概股会成为其中的受害者，从专业的术语讲：中概股未来的不确定性已经放大，带来的结果就是估值偏低。而与其类似的是港股，港股是世界上估值最低的市场，因为港股面临独特的不确定性环境：中美两国的经济、金融、政策和地缘政治都可以随时和大幅影响港股。</p>\n<p>一句话，中概股的未来就是港股化和边缘化，这个过程可能要持续到中美地缘政治关系出现新阶段为止。</p>\n<p>比尔黄见证了中概股最辉煌的时期和亲历了辉煌开始结束。对资本市场而言，长期我们都已经死了，所以不需要去讨论长期的问题。</p>","source":"qqggdh","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中概股的未来</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中概股的未来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-22 09:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0zufFWNGXYzP0f-XCuVHMg><strong>全球宏观投机</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>什么是全球宏观视角\n全球宏观作为一种富有特色的投资和交易类别，侧重从全球以及各国经济周期、金融条件和地缘政治的视角寻求中期的大型资产价格运动机会，这个价格变动方向，可以向上，也可以向下。全球宏观思路用于资产配置，最典型的是斯文森时代的耶鲁捐赠基金；而用于更加灵活多变的交易，最典型的是德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯共同管理时代的量子基金。\n金融危机以后，全球宏观交易方式受到很大的质疑，原因在于这种风格的基金...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0zufFWNGXYzP0f-XCuVHMg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc9de4d397ebba7835e00e3691884586","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0zufFWNGXYzP0f-XCuVHMg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182861188","content_text":"什么是全球宏观视角\n全球宏观作为一种富有特色的投资和交易类别，侧重从全球以及各国经济周期、金融条件和地缘政治的视角寻求中期的大型资产价格运动机会，这个价格变动方向，可以向上，也可以向下。全球宏观思路用于资产配置，最典型的是斯文森时代的耶鲁捐赠基金；而用于更加灵活多变的交易，最典型的是德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯共同管理时代的量子基金。\n金融危机以后，全球宏观交易方式受到很大的质疑，原因在于这种风格的基金近些年的表现不如人意。图一   宏观对冲基金表现不佳\n中概股的独特宏观因子\n我们把实际影响资产价格的投资者大脑中的偏见称之为宏观因子，或者价格驱动因素。略有经验的投资者都知道，影响资产价格的因素非常多，很多都是微观或者产业因素。我们命名为宏观，并不是说一定是宏观经济数据或者事件才会影响价格，而是泛指各种持续长期对价格产生真实影响的变量。比如，有人研究了北京雾霾对投资者情绪的影响，雾霾天投资者情绪总体偏低，更容易卖出而不是买进。但是这并不是我们所讲的宏观因子，因为它对资产价格的影响不是持续有效的。但是，公司盈利增速预期就是影响股票价格的宏观因子，因为几乎在任何时候，这个变量都会影响投资者对股票和市场的感知，从而促使投资者做出买卖行为。\n那么，影响中概股的宏观因子有哪些呢？\n首先考察中国经济周期、金融条件与中概股的关系。我们发现，中概股与中国经济周期关联之紧密，完全不亚于A50股票指数，而在市场表现方面，中概股与A50的相关性也略强。图二 中国经济基本面与中概股指数图三 中概股、A50与创业板\n我中概股与大股票相关性更强，说明这些公司与经济周期的关联度更高，同时，投资者对股票的评估很大程度上面依赖于经济前景的判断。\n其二、我们考察中概股与纳斯达克指数的关系。平均看，过去五年，中概股与纳指的线性相关系数达到了0.7，而最近的相关系数下降到0.44。中概股近期的大幅偏离纳指，说明是其他宏观因子主导了价格运动。图四中概股指数与纳指的偏离达到历史极值\n其三、中概股目前大跌的原因是什么？\n显然是中国最近出台的一系列监管政策，使得市场的不确定性大增。中概股这个特征跟A股完全类似，对经济政策、监管政策的变化非常敏感。但是，中概股这次大跌多了一层额外的不确定性：中美关系严重影响中概股的表现，从而成为一个真正长期影响价格的宏观因子。\n从这个角度讲，中概股未来充满颠簸，因为地缘政治的不确定性是最坏的不确定性，很难事先规划，一旦发生，市场波动的速度极快，同时，不确定性发展过程也非常曲折，比如今晚中国证监会表达对金融市场以及稳定资本市场预期的善意，这个时候市场就会猛烈的反弹。通常很难评估不确定性发展的阶段以及何时确认结束。\n那么当下的不确定性消失了吗？短期市场的紧张情绪应该得到了缓和，可能支持中概股有一波反弹，但是就中长期来看，中美两国的监管政策、地缘政治的变化，已经成为了中概股投资的一个基本影响变量。\n中概股的未来\n中概股的公司相当部分是中国最具成长性的公司。这是比尔黄押注这些股票的主要理由，比如腾讯音乐，中国的音乐付费市场才刚刚启动，还有无数消费场景可以引入付费音乐。但这的确是一个长期充满曲折的过程。从这个角度讲，中概股依然有一些非常优秀的上市公司，其中必然有一些在未来成为伟大的公司，其股票也会创造极大的增值。\n然而，中概股面临两个巨大的挑战：一是中国经济政策的冲击，这种冲击在最近开始变得频繁，二是地缘政治的冲击。资本市场会成为中美角逐的一个战场，而中概股会成为其中的受害者，从专业的术语讲：中概股未来的不确定性已经放大，带来的结果就是估值偏低。而与其类似的是港股，港股是世界上估值最低的市场，因为港股面临独特的不确定性环境：中美两国的经济、金融、政策和地缘政治都可以随时和大幅影响港股。\n一句话，中概股的未来就是港股化和边缘化，这个过程可能要持续到中美地缘政治关系出现新阶段为止。\n比尔黄见证了中概股最辉煌的时期和亲历了辉煌开始结束。对资本市场而言，长期我们都已经死了，所以不需要去讨论长期的问题。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":836595203,"gmtCreate":1629505748002,"gmtModify":1633684420994,"author":{"id":"3576715327990513","authorId":"3576715327990513","name":"adam888888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1908f9d0e6086ddc6d187a22f914f31","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576715327990513","idStr":"3576715327990513"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"厉害👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻","listText":"厉害👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻","text":"厉害👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836595203","repostId":"1169407618","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":836119131,"gmtCreate":1629464010523,"gmtModify":1633684673892,"author":{"id":"3576715327990513","authorId":"3576715327990513","name":"adam888888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1908f9d0e6086ddc6d187a22f914f31","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576715327990513","idStr":"3576715327990513"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对","listText":"对","text":"对","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836119131","repostId":"1183587301","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831636302,"gmtCreate":1629311279406,"gmtModify":1633685794817,"author":{"id":"3576715327990513","authorId":"3576715327990513","name":"adam888888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1908f9d0e6086ddc6d187a22f914f31","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576715327990513","idStr":"3576715327990513"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"厉害👍🏻","listText":"厉害👍🏻","text":"厉害👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831636302","repostId":"1103112059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103112059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629300620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103112059?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 23:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"投资者现金持有量达一年最高，在害怕什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103112059","media":"金十数据","summary":"美银调查显示，投资者纷纷增持现金，经济增长预期下降。","content":"<p>作者：黄琨</p>\n<p>美国银行周二公布的一项调查显示，欧洲投资者的现金持有量增至一年来最高水平，<b>绝大多数投资者预计，随着欧洲经济前景降温，股市涨幅将会削减。</b></p>\n<p>美国银行对基金经理的月度调查（FMS）于8月6日至12日期间进行，超过250名小组成员参与，所管理的资产规模达7490亿美元。</p>\n<p>在FMS中，仅有不到一半的受访者预计欧洲经济在未来12个月会进一步改善。增长预期降温主要源于对新冠病毒的担忧，19%的投资者认为德尔塔病毒是欧洲经济面临的最大尾部风险，仅次于通胀风险和央行逐步取消紧急刺激措施带来的“缩减恐慌”。</p>\n<p>而在5月份的一项类似调查中，担忧新冠病毒的受访者仅为9%。</p>\n<p>美银称，23%的投资者持有超配现金，这一比例为一年来最高，88%的受访者预计欧洲股市表现平淡，涨幅只会为个位数。</p>\n<p>本月，全球36%的投资者表示自己增持欧洲股票，而上个月这一比例为45%。此外，全球约2%的投资者减持英国股票。银行和保险等对利率敏感的周期性类股和科技股跻身欧洲三大增持股之列。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，受访者对全球经济增长的预期也大幅下降。8月份预计全球经济会增长的受访者比例只有27%，为2020年4月以来的最低值，也远低于今年3月91%的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5b53d6262538b1dfd087d8eba51d85\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>另外，美银2021年8月的FMS还显示，受调查的基金经理中有84%认为，<b>美联储将在年底前发出缩减量化宽松的信号。其中，28%的投资者预计美联储将在杰克逊霍尔会议上宣布，而33%的投资者认为将于9月在联邦公开市场委员会上宣布，还有23%的投资者认为会在今年第四季度宣布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4968607695a50409b8d4ba653300f7c\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在8月份之前，地缘政治风险并不是投资者们考虑的重心。但阿富汗事件发生之后，下个月的FMS考量地缘政治风险因素的占比可能会提升。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda3fba020da4fadf93e68fabc22f4dd\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美银表示，越来越多投资者担忧通胀以及缩减恐慌风险，约70%的基金经理预计通货再膨胀交易还有进一步发酵的可能，而7月份调查时仅有64%的基金经理这样认为。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>投资者现金持有量达一年最高，在害怕什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n投资者现金持有量达一年最高，在害怕什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 23:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/80261><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：黄琨\n美国银行周二公布的一项调查显示，欧洲投资者的现金持有量增至一年来最高水平，绝大多数投资者预计，随着欧洲经济前景降温，股市涨幅将会削减。\n美国银行对基金经理的月度调查（FMS）于8月6日至12日期间进行，超过250名小组成员参与，所管理的资产规模达7490亿美元。\n在FMS中，仅有不到一半的受访者预计欧洲经济在未来12个月会进一步改善。增长预期降温主要源于对新冠病毒的担忧，19%的投资者...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/80261\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ad35190f75132817724b1baf836f80","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/80261","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103112059","content_text":"作者：黄琨\n美国银行周二公布的一项调查显示，欧洲投资者的现金持有量增至一年来最高水平，绝大多数投资者预计，随着欧洲经济前景降温，股市涨幅将会削减。\n美国银行对基金经理的月度调查（FMS）于8月6日至12日期间进行，超过250名小组成员参与，所管理的资产规模达7490亿美元。\n在FMS中，仅有不到一半的受访者预计欧洲经济在未来12个月会进一步改善。增长预期降温主要源于对新冠病毒的担忧，19%的投资者认为德尔塔病毒是欧洲经济面临的最大尾部风险，仅次于通胀风险和央行逐步取消紧急刺激措施带来的“缩减恐慌”。\n而在5月份的一项类似调查中，担忧新冠病毒的受访者仅为9%。\n美银称，23%的投资者持有超配现金，这一比例为一年来最高，88%的受访者预计欧洲股市表现平淡，涨幅只会为个位数。\n本月，全球36%的投资者表示自己增持欧洲股票，而上个月这一比例为45%。此外，全球约2%的投资者减持英国股票。银行和保险等对利率敏感的周期性类股和科技股跻身欧洲三大增持股之列。\n值得注意的是，受访者对全球经济增长的预期也大幅下降。8月份预计全球经济会增长的受访者比例只有27%，为2020年4月以来的最低值，也远低于今年3月91%的水平。\n\n另外，美银2021年8月的FMS还显示，受调查的基金经理中有84%认为，美联储将在年底前发出缩减量化宽松的信号。其中，28%的投资者预计美联储将在杰克逊霍尔会议上宣布，而33%的投资者认为将于9月在联邦公开市场委员会上宣布，还有23%的投资者认为会在今年第四季度宣布。\n\n在8月份之前，地缘政治风险并不是投资者们考虑的重心。但阿富汗事件发生之后，下个月的FMS考量地缘政治风险因素的占比可能会提升。\n\n美银表示，越来越多投资者担忧通胀以及缩减恐慌风险，约70%的基金经理预计通货再膨胀交易还有进一步发酵的可能，而7月份调查时仅有64%的基金经理这样认为。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":894401104,"gmtCreate":1628844089408,"gmtModify":1631883752079,"author":{"id":"3576715327990513","authorId":"3576715327990513","name":"adam888888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1908f9d0e6086ddc6d187a22f914f31","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576715327990513","idStr":"3576715327990513"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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