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- SlimswSlimsw
  ·2021-07-11
  Well written insights 👍🏻
  The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why
  The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n
  The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why
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- SlimswSlimsw
  ·2021-06-29
  Good potential
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- SlimswSlimsw
  ·2021-06-29
  Tell me your opinion about this news...
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- SlimswSlimsw
  ·2021-06-16
  Thank you. Very useful insights.
  Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting
  The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put
  Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting
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- SlimswSlimsw
  ·2021-05-04
  Good insights and fruit for thoughts.
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- SlimswSlimsw
  ·2021-04-02
  Well dine
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When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p>\n<p>It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p>\n<p>Here’s why.</p>\n<p>We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p>\n<p><b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p>\n<p>Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p>\n<p>First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p>\n<p>Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p>\n<p>Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p>\n<p>Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p>\n<p>Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p>\n<p>You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p>\n<p>Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p>\n<p><b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p>\n<p>Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p>\n<p>“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p>\n<p>Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p>\n<p>For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p>\n<p>Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p>\n<p><b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p>\n<p>Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p>\n<p><b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p>\n<p>We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p>\n<p>This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p>\n<p>True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p>\n<p><b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p>\n<p>As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p>\n<p><b>Three themes to follow</b></p>\n<p>If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p>\n<p><b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p>\n<p><b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p>\n<p><b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150435540,"gmtCreate":1624924235080,"gmtModify":1631891551204,"author":{"id":"3578178513281804","authorId":"3578178513281804","name":"Slimsw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42679fd8f0442de19a20e0233fd4623","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578178513281804","authorIdStr":"3578178513281804"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good potential&nbsp;","listText":"Good potential&nbsp;","text":"Good potential","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150435540","repostId":"2146002845","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150435039,"gmtCreate":1624924215721,"gmtModify":1631891551205,"author":{"id":"3578178513281804","authorId":"3578178513281804","name":"Slimsw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42679fd8f0442de19a20e0233fd4623","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578178513281804","authorIdStr":"3578178513281804"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150435039","repostId":"2146002845","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169304109,"gmtCreate":1623815929501,"gmtModify":1631891551209,"author":{"id":"3578178513281804","authorId":"3578178513281804","name":"Slimsw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42679fd8f0442de19a20e0233fd4623","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578178513281804","authorIdStr":"3578178513281804"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you.&nbsp;Very useful insights.&nbsp;","listText":"Thank you.&nbsp;Very useful insights.&nbsp;","text":"Thank you. Very useful insights.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169304109","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150591447","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623769391,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150591447?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150591447","media":"CNBC","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put ","content":"<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1150591447","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day meeting Wednesday, could start preliminary discussions about scaling back the unprecedented bond-buying programs that aided the economy during the pandemic. Some market participants believe it’s still too soon for the central bank to signal such a tapering action, while others think the Fed will be able to find a happy medium that won’t upset the markets.\nEach scenario has different investing implications as they are expected to make big moves across asset classes.\nHere’s a playbook for traders on every scenario from the central bank’s key meeting.\nIf the Fed signals it’s staying with easy policies\nThe Fed could reiterate its transitory stance on inflation, ignoring the pick-up in price pressures reflected in recent economic data. If the central bank says its not time to remove accommodative policies and it’s not concerned about inflation, investors should stick with hedges against rising prices like commodities and stocks with high pricing power, investment banks found.\nBank of America screened S&P 500 companies that its analysts believe have the most pricing power and ability to expand margins at times of rising prices. The stocks include a few chipmakers —Nvidia,Texas InstrumentsandBroadcom— as well as consumer plays likeHome Depot,NikeandPepsiCo.Energy dividend payerExxon Mobilis also on the list.\nUBS also developed a framework for scoring corporate pricing agility, which considers pricing power, margin momentum and input cost exposure. For pricing power, UBS quantified the extent to which a company can raise prices over and above costs. For margin momentum, UBS tracked corporate pricing trends using its proprietary pricing mapping.\nFor input cost exposure, UBS searched for companies with negative sentiment around commodity and transport costs on earnings calls.\n\nBillionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said earlier this week that investors should “go all in on the inflation trades” if the Fed keeps ignoring higher prices.\n“If they treat these numbers — which were material events, they were very material —if they treat them with nonchalance, I think it’s just a green light to bet heavily on every inflation trade,” Tudor Jones said on “Squawk Box”on Monday.\n“If they say, ‘We’re on path, things are good,’ then I would just go all in on the inflation trades. I’d probably buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold,” added Tudor Jones, who called the stock market crash in 1987.\nThe legendary investor believe cryptocurrencies and other commodities are favorable inflation hedges. Other than buying the commodities outright, investors could also bet on related exchange-traded funds, like gold miner ETFs.\nThe VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX),the biggest gold miner ETF with more than $14 billion in assets under management, has outperformed the populargold ETF GLDso far this year.\nIf the Fed signals it’s time to start removing easy policies\nAnother widely speculated scenario is for the Fed to signal that it’s nearing the time to dial back easy policy saying it will start tapering soon and move up its forecast for a rate increase. Under such a case where the central bank isn’t sufficiently dovish, many expect bond yields to shoot higher.\n“It could easily move longer yields higher,” said Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist. “A revised dot plot could be one way to do that if it shows the anticipation of earlier or more aggressive rate hikes. And Fed Chair Jay Powell could easily push rates up if he shares that the Fed has started discussing tapering or suggests tapering could start in the next several months.”\nTudor Jones warned that this scenario could lead to another taper tantrum that could cause a correction in stocks.\n“If they course correct, if they say, ‘We’ve got incoming data, we’ve accomplished our mission or we’re on the way very rapidly to accomplishing our mission on employment,’ then you’re going to get a taper tantrum,”Tudor Jones said on Monday. “You’re going to get a sell-off in fixed income. You’re going to get a correction in stocks.”\nCNBC Pro combed through the returns of all S&P 500 stocks during the last five significant spikes in the 10-year Treasury yield. These five periods of a sharp move in rates occurred between 2003 and 2006, 2008 and 2009, 2012 and 2013, 2016 and 2018, and 2020 through now.\nAfter we found the stocks that beat the market every time, we looked for the names that are well-loved by analysts on Wall Street today. The stocks’ average gains during those rising interest rate periods are listed below, along with the percentage of analysts with buy ratings right now.\n\nBank of America’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian is advising clients to buy high-quality stocks when tapering nears. High-quality stocks have a “B+” or better S&P quality rating.\nSubramanian said during the 2013 taper tantrum, high-quality names outperformed their low-quality counterparts by 1.3 percentage points from peak to trough in May and June.\nA hint at removing stimulus could also hurt stocks that are most sensitive to the economic recovery, including cyclicals like financials, energy and materials.\n“More hawkish = lower growth. Cyclicals should underperform,” Dennis DeBusschere, macro research analyst at Evercore ISI, said in a note. “The fact that hawkish concerns are being brought up at the same time people believe the reflation trade is in trouble and you have a poor Cyclical backdrop.”\nSo far in 2021, the energy sector has been the biggest winner among the 11 S&P 500 groupings, up 46%. Financials and real estate both gained more than 20% this year.\nIf the Fed makes both camps happy\nA third scenario could occur in which the Fed signals that it is concerned about inflation, but the central bank is not yet ready to taper.\nIf Fed chair Jerome Powell admits the discussion of tapering but nothing has been decided, then the market will likely see a modest rally, led by tech stocks, according to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.\n“This is essentially the outcome that Powell and the Fed have been telegraphing for the past several weeks,” Essaye said. “This would be a continuation of the past two weeks’ Goldilocks market outlook. This outcome would help the S&P 500 extend last week’s breakout.”\nInvestors have been rotating back to tech as of late with bond yields coming down. The tech-heavyNasdaq Compositehas rallied about 2.5% this month, hitting a record close on Monday, its first all-time high since April 26. In comparison, the S&P 500 has risen just under 1% in June.\n“This is what the Fed has been doing for the last several months — warning that an inflation surge was coming but that it is transitory so no need to taper,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC. “Moreover, this is probably the most expected outcome from the Fed meeting.”\n“Yes, there may be comments by members that the time to start talking about tapering is here, but I think Powell will continue to suggest that inflation is up as expected but is not yet acting any differently than anticipated,” added Paulsen.\nThis year’s pullback in tech stocks has opened some opportunities in high-quality names that are now trading at a discount, according to top-rated technology analyst Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein.\nThe Wall Street firm found several technology stocks that have inexpensive valuations and are high in quality. Bernstein screened for the cheapest tech names based on their forward price-to-earnings ratio. The firm also assigned each stock with a quality score.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106255336,"gmtCreate":1620127575525,"gmtModify":1631891551211,"author":{"id":"3578178513281804","authorId":"3578178513281804","name":"Slimsw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42679fd8f0442de19a20e0233fd4623","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578178513281804","authorIdStr":"3578178513281804"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good insights and fruit&nbsp;for thoughts.&nbsp;","listText":"Good insights and fruit&nbsp;for thoughts.&nbsp;","text":"Good insights and fruit for thoughts.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106255336","repostId":"1119027537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340857596,"gmtCreate":1617377107015,"gmtModify":1631891551222,"author":{"id":"3578178513281804","authorId":"3578178513281804","name":"Slimsw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42679fd8f0442de19a20e0233fd4623","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578178513281804","authorIdStr":"3578178513281804"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well dine","listText":"Well dine","text":"Well dine","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340857596","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}