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2021-11-28
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2021-11-27
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WTI crude tumbled 9.02% to $71.28 a barrel, Brent fell 8.16%.<blockquote>WTI原油下跌9.02%至每桶71.28美元,布伦特原油下跌8.16%。</blockquote>
WTI crude tumbled 9.02% to $71.28 a barrel, Brent fell 8.16%.
WTI crude tumbled 9.02% to $71.28 a barrel, Brent fell 8.16%.<blockquote>WTI原油下跌9.02%至每桶71.28美元,布伦特原油下跌8.16%。</blockquote>
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2021-11-24
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2021-11-06
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2021-10-20
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Exxon Debates Abandoning Some of Its Biggest Oil and Gas Projects<blockquote>埃克森美孚就放弃一些最大的石油和天然气项目进行辩论</blockquote>
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s remade board of directors is debating whether to continue with several major oil
Exxon Debates Abandoning Some of Its Biggest Oil and Gas Projects<blockquote>埃克森美孚就放弃一些最大的石油和天然气项目进行辩论</blockquote>
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2021-10-14
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Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>
Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales
Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>
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2021-10-08
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2021-10-07
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Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>
October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But
Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>
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23:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WTI crude tumbled 9.02% to $71.28 a barrel, Brent fell 8.16%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e118e6a5e909412e48ca104b2c37b30\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"611\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ac1680f3b9d8085d5fd9b6a868ce9c3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>WTI原油下跌9.02%至每桶71.28美元,布伦特原油下跌8.16%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158420182","content_text":"WTI crude tumbled 9.02% to $71.28 a barrel, Brent fell 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pls ","listText":"Like pls ","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853087920","repostId":"1172683327","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172683327","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634742017,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172683327?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-20 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Exxon Debates Abandoning Some of Its Biggest Oil and Gas Projects<blockquote>埃克森美孚就放弃一些最大的石油和天然气项目进行辩论</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172683327","media":"Wall Street Journal","summary":"Exxon Mobil Corp.’s remade board of directors is debating whether to continue with several major oil","content":"<p>Exxon Mobil Corp.’s remade board of directors is debating whether to continue with several major oil and gas projects as the company reconsiders its investment strategy in a fast-changing energy landscape, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据知情人士透露,随着埃克森美孚公司在快速变化的能源格局中重新考虑其投资战略,埃克森美孚公司改组后的董事会正在讨论是否继续进行几个大型石油和天然气项目。</blockquote></p><p> Members of the board—which includes three directors successfully nominated by an activist investor in May and two other new members—have expressed concerns about certain projects, including a $30 billion liquefied natural gas development in Mozambique and another multibillion-dollar gas project in Vietnam, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称,董事会成员——包括5月份由一名激进投资者成功提名的三名董事和另外两名新成员——对某些项目表示担忧,包括莫桑比克300亿美元的液化天然气开发项目和越南另一个数十亿美元的天然气项目。</blockquote></p><p> Oil and gasprices are at multiyear highs, and the world is experiencing a shortage of fossil fuels as economies emerge from the pandemic. But it takes years for such energy megaprojects to produce additional supplies, and more years after that for the investments to pay off.</p><p><blockquote>石油和天然气价格处于多年高位,随着各经济体摆脱疫情,世界正在经历化石燃料短缺。但此类大型能源项目需要数年时间才能产生额外的供应,而投资需要数年时间才能获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon board members are weighing the fate of future projects as the company is facing pressure from investors to restrain fossil-fuel investment to limit carbon emissions and return more cash to shareholders. Environmentalists and some government officials are also pressuring the company to produce less oil and gas.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚董事会成员正在权衡未来项目的命运,因为该公司面临投资者的压力,要求其限制化石燃料投资,以限制碳排放并向股东返还更多现金。环保人士和一些政府官员也在向该公司施压,要求其减少石油和天然气的生产。</blockquote></p><p> The discussions are taking place as part of a review of the oil company's five-year spending plan, on which the board is set to vote at the end of this month, the people said. It isn’t clear whether the board will make a final call on the Mozambique or Vietnam projects during the current review, according to the people.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称,这些讨论是对该石油公司五年支出计划审查的一部分,董事会将于本月底对该计划进行投票。据知情人士透露,目前尚不清楚董事会是否会在本次审查期间就莫项目或越项目举行最终看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> Both projects face potential political obstacles, and some Exxon board members have expressed concerns about whether they would return the billions in upfront investment they would require, some of the people said. The board meetings have been cordial, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>一些知情人士表示,这两个项目都面临潜在的政治障碍,一些埃克森董事会成员对他们是否会返还所需的数十亿美元前期投资表示担忧。知情人士说,董事会会议很友好。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon said it doesn’t discuss internal board deliberations. “Any depiction of the board’s discussions as being less than constructive in tone or substance is wrong,” said Exxon spokesman Casey Norton.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚表示,它不讨论董事会内部审议。埃克森美孚发言人凯西·诺顿表示:“任何将董事会讨论描述为在语气或实质上缺乏建设性的说法都是错误的。”</blockquote></p><p> As part of the review, Exxon is analyzing the expected carbon emissions from each project and how they would affect the company’s ability to meet pledges to reduce emissions, people familiar with the matter said. The annual projected emissions from the Mozambique and Vietnam projects were among the highest in Exxon’s planned pipeline of oil and gas projects, according to a pre-pandemic internal analysis by Exxon, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称,作为审查的一部分,埃克森美孚正在分析每个项目的预期碳排放量,以及它们将如何影响公司履行减排承诺的能力。根据《华尔街日报》查阅的埃克森美孚大流行前的内部分析,莫桑比克和越南项目的年度预计排放量是埃克森美孚计划中石油和天然气项目管道中最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Norton said the analysis of projected carbon emissions the Journal reviewed was several years old and didn’t include the impact of Exxon’s most recent emission reduction plans and other post-Covid-19 changes.</p><p><blockquote>诺顿先生表示,《华尔街日报》审查的预计碳排放量分析已有几年历史,不包括埃克森美孚最新减排计划和Covid-19后其他变化的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The discussions over the projects represent a new dynamic for Exxon’s board, said people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示,有关这些项目的讨论代表了埃克森美孚董事会的新动态。</blockquote></p><p> Engine No. 1, the hedge fund that led a campaign that replaced three Exxon board members earlier this year, argued Exxon was investing in low-return projects and lacked a coherent strategy to chart a transition to lower-carbon fuels amid growing concerns about climate change.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候,对冲基金Engine No.1领导了一场更换埃克森美孚三名董事会成员的运动,该基金辩称,埃克森美孚正在投资低回报项目,并且缺乏连贯的战略来规划向低碳燃料的过渡,因为人们对气候变化的担忧日益加剧。</blockquote></p><p> The activist was successful in part because it was able to win support from some of the company’s largest investors, including BlackRock Inc.and Vanguard Group. The asset managers said one of the reasons they supported the Engine candidates was that Exxon’s board lacked energy expertise and independence.</p><p><blockquote>这位活动家之所以成功,部分原因是它能够赢得该公司一些最大投资者的支持,包括贝莱德公司和先锋集团。资产管理公司表示,他们支持发动机候选人的原因之一是埃克森美孚董事会缺乏能源专业知识和独立性。</blockquote></p><p> Gregory Goff, one of the Engine No. 1 nominees, is among the directors to raise doubts about the Mozambique project, people familiar with the matter said. Mr. Goff, the former chief executive of Andeavor, which was one the largest U.S. refiners before being purchased by Marathon Petroleum Corp., has said that Exxon should consider more closely the risks presented by the project to assess whether it justifies investing, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称,一号发动机提名人之一格雷戈里·戈夫(Gregory Goff)是对莫桑比克项目提出质疑的董事之一。知情人士称,Andeavor公司前首席执行官戈夫表示,埃克森美孚应该更仔细地考虑该项目带来的风险,以评估其是否值得投资。Andeavor公司在被马拉松石油公司(Marathon Petroleum Corp.)收购之前是美国最大的炼油商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The Mozambique project, called Rovuma, would tap vast reserves of natural gas off the coast of the southern African country, then chill them to a liquid state at an onshore plant to be exported around the world. It is one of the largest projects in Exxon’s portfolio, and its proximity to India could give Exxon an opportunity to export gas to a fast-growing market.</p><p><blockquote>莫桑比克的项目名为鲁伍马,将开采这个南部非洲国家海岸的大量天然气储量,然后在陆上工厂将其冷却至液态,出口到世界各地。这是埃克森美孚投资组合中最大的项目之一,它靠近印度可能会给埃克森美孚一个向快速增长的市场出口天然气的机会。</blockquote></p><p> But Mozambique lacks infrastructure and is fighting an Islamic State-linked insurgency that has claimed more than 3,000 lives.Total EnergiesSE halted construction of a $20 billion gas project there in March after violence erupted near its construction site. Exxon spent $2.8 billion to acquire a stake in the Rovuma project but has delayed a final investment decision for several years. Exxon hasn’t disclosed an exact estimate of the project’s cost; Mozambique has estimated it at $27 billion to $33 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是莫桑比克缺乏基础设施,而且正在与一个与伊斯兰国有关的叛乱分子作战,该叛乱分子已经夺去了3000多人的生命。今年3月,Total Energiesse在其建筑工地附近爆发暴力事件后,停止了该国一个200亿美元的天然气项目的建设。埃克森美孚斥资28亿美元收购了鲁伍马项目的股份,但将最终投资决定推迟了数年。埃克森美孚尚未透露该项目成本的确切估计;莫桑比克估计为270亿至330亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Abandoning the projects would represent another setback to plans by Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods to boost spending to increase production. Less than four years ago, Mr. Woods said the company would invest $230 billion to pump an additional one million barrels of oil and gas a day by 2025. Rovuma, in particular, was central to that strategy.The company has already pulled backparts of that strategy after the pandemic decimated demand for oil and gas last year, prompting it to undergo a belt tightening.</p><p><blockquote>放弃这些项目将是埃克森美孚首席执行官达伦·伍兹增加支出以增加产量的计划的又一次挫折。不到四年前,伍兹表示,该公司将投资2300亿美元,到2025年每天额外开采100万桶石油和天然气。鲁伍马尤其是这一战略的核心。去年疫情导致石油和天然气需求大幅下降后,该公司已经取消了这一战略,促使其勒紧裤腰带。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon’s fortunes have improved this year along with rising oil and gas prices. Analysts expect Exxon to report more than $6 billion in quarterly profit later this month, after a loss of $680 million during the same period last year. The company has said it would give priority to using cash to pay down debt and fund dividends.</p><p><blockquote>随着石油和天然气价格的上涨,埃克森美孚的命运今年有所改善。分析师预计,埃克森美孚本月晚些时候将公布超过60亿美元的季度利润,去年同期亏损6.8亿美元。该公司表示,将优先使用现金偿还债务和为股息提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon is planning to declare in coming weeks that it will increase its investment in a low-carbon unit it announced in February by billions of dollars, according to people familiar with the matter. It initially said it would invest $3 billion in the unit through 2025 to commercialize carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, biofuels and other technologies. Most of those businesses aren’t profitable, say analysts, and need significant public-policy support and technological advances to become so.</p><p><blockquote>据知情人士透露,埃克森美孚计划在未来几周宣布,将在2月份宣布的低碳部门增加数十亿美元的投资。该公司最初表示,到2025年将向该部门投资30亿美元,以实现碳捕获和储存、氢气、生物燃料和其他技术的商业化。分析师表示,这些企业中的大多数都没有盈利,需要大量的公共政策支持和技术进步才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon is also considering a pledgeto reduce and offset the carbon emissions from its operations to zero by 2050, the Journal has reported. Mr. Woods previously called such net zero commitments a “beauty competition.”</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道,埃克森美孚还在考虑承诺到2050年将其运营中的碳排放量减少并抵消至零。伍兹先生此前将这种净零承诺称为“选美比赛”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Exxon Debates Abandoning Some of Its Biggest Oil and Gas Projects<blockquote>埃克森美孚就放弃一些最大的石油和天然气项目进行辩论</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExxon Debates Abandoning Some of Its Biggest Oil and Gas Projects<blockquote>埃克森美孚就放弃一些最大的石油和天然气项目进行辩论</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-20 23:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Exxon Mobil Corp.’s remade board of directors is debating whether to continue with several major oil and gas projects as the company reconsiders its investment strategy in a fast-changing energy landscape, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据知情人士透露,随着埃克森美孚公司在快速变化的能源格局中重新考虑其投资战略,埃克森美孚公司改组后的董事会正在讨论是否继续进行几个大型石油和天然气项目。</blockquote></p><p> Members of the board—which includes three directors successfully nominated by an activist investor in May and two other new members—have expressed concerns about certain projects, including a $30 billion liquefied natural gas development in Mozambique and another multibillion-dollar gas project in Vietnam, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称,董事会成员——包括5月份由一名激进投资者成功提名的三名董事和另外两名新成员——对某些项目表示担忧,包括莫桑比克300亿美元的液化天然气开发项目和越南另一个数十亿美元的天然气项目。</blockquote></p><p> Oil and gasprices are at multiyear highs, and the world is experiencing a shortage of fossil fuels as economies emerge from the pandemic. But it takes years for such energy megaprojects to produce additional supplies, and more years after that for the investments to pay off.</p><p><blockquote>石油和天然气价格处于多年高位,随着各经济体摆脱疫情,世界正在经历化石燃料短缺。但此类大型能源项目需要数年时间才能产生额外的供应,而投资需要数年时间才能获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon board members are weighing the fate of future projects as the company is facing pressure from investors to restrain fossil-fuel investment to limit carbon emissions and return more cash to shareholders. Environmentalists and some government officials are also pressuring the company to produce less oil and gas.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚董事会成员正在权衡未来项目的命运,因为该公司面临投资者的压力,要求其限制化石燃料投资,以限制碳排放并向股东返还更多现金。环保人士和一些政府官员也在向该公司施压,要求其减少石油和天然气的生产。</blockquote></p><p> The discussions are taking place as part of a review of the oil company's five-year spending plan, on which the board is set to vote at the end of this month, the people said. It isn’t clear whether the board will make a final call on the Mozambique or Vietnam projects during the current review, according to the people.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称,这些讨论是对该石油公司五年支出计划审查的一部分,董事会将于本月底对该计划进行投票。据知情人士透露,目前尚不清楚董事会是否会在本次审查期间就莫项目或越项目举行最终看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> Both projects face potential political obstacles, and some Exxon board members have expressed concerns about whether they would return the billions in upfront investment they would require, some of the people said. The board meetings have been cordial, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>一些知情人士表示,这两个项目都面临潜在的政治障碍,一些埃克森董事会成员对他们是否会返还所需的数十亿美元前期投资表示担忧。知情人士说,董事会会议很友好。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon said it doesn’t discuss internal board deliberations. “Any depiction of the board’s discussions as being less than constructive in tone or substance is wrong,” said Exxon spokesman Casey Norton.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚表示,它不讨论董事会内部审议。埃克森美孚发言人凯西·诺顿表示:“任何将董事会讨论描述为在语气或实质上缺乏建设性的说法都是错误的。”</blockquote></p><p> As part of the review, Exxon is analyzing the expected carbon emissions from each project and how they would affect the company’s ability to meet pledges to reduce emissions, people familiar with the matter said. The annual projected emissions from the Mozambique and Vietnam projects were among the highest in Exxon’s planned pipeline of oil and gas projects, according to a pre-pandemic internal analysis by Exxon, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称,作为审查的一部分,埃克森美孚正在分析每个项目的预期碳排放量,以及它们将如何影响公司履行减排承诺的能力。根据《华尔街日报》查阅的埃克森美孚大流行前的内部分析,莫桑比克和越南项目的年度预计排放量是埃克森美孚计划中石油和天然气项目管道中最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Norton said the analysis of projected carbon emissions the Journal reviewed was several years old and didn’t include the impact of Exxon’s most recent emission reduction plans and other post-Covid-19 changes.</p><p><blockquote>诺顿先生表示,《华尔街日报》审查的预计碳排放量分析已有几年历史,不包括埃克森美孚最新减排计划和Covid-19后其他变化的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The discussions over the projects represent a new dynamic for Exxon’s board, said people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示,有关这些项目的讨论代表了埃克森美孚董事会的新动态。</blockquote></p><p> Engine No. 1, the hedge fund that led a campaign that replaced three Exxon board members earlier this year, argued Exxon was investing in low-return projects and lacked a coherent strategy to chart a transition to lower-carbon fuels amid growing concerns about climate change.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候,对冲基金Engine No.1领导了一场更换埃克森美孚三名董事会成员的运动,该基金辩称,埃克森美孚正在投资低回报项目,并且缺乏连贯的战略来规划向低碳燃料的过渡,因为人们对气候变化的担忧日益加剧。</blockquote></p><p> The activist was successful in part because it was able to win support from some of the company’s largest investors, including BlackRock Inc.and Vanguard Group. The asset managers said one of the reasons they supported the Engine candidates was that Exxon’s board lacked energy expertise and independence.</p><p><blockquote>这位活动家之所以成功,部分原因是它能够赢得该公司一些最大投资者的支持,包括贝莱德公司和先锋集团。资产管理公司表示,他们支持发动机候选人的原因之一是埃克森美孚董事会缺乏能源专业知识和独立性。</blockquote></p><p> Gregory Goff, one of the Engine No. 1 nominees, is among the directors to raise doubts about the Mozambique project, people familiar with the matter said. Mr. Goff, the former chief executive of Andeavor, which was one the largest U.S. refiners before being purchased by Marathon Petroleum Corp., has said that Exxon should consider more closely the risks presented by the project to assess whether it justifies investing, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称,一号发动机提名人之一格雷戈里·戈夫(Gregory Goff)是对莫桑比克项目提出质疑的董事之一。知情人士称,Andeavor公司前首席执行官戈夫表示,埃克森美孚应该更仔细地考虑该项目带来的风险,以评估其是否值得投资。Andeavor公司在被马拉松石油公司(Marathon Petroleum Corp.)收购之前是美国最大的炼油商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The Mozambique project, called Rovuma, would tap vast reserves of natural gas off the coast of the southern African country, then chill them to a liquid state at an onshore plant to be exported around the world. It is one of the largest projects in Exxon’s portfolio, and its proximity to India could give Exxon an opportunity to export gas to a fast-growing market.</p><p><blockquote>莫桑比克的项目名为鲁伍马,将开采这个南部非洲国家海岸的大量天然气储量,然后在陆上工厂将其冷却至液态,出口到世界各地。这是埃克森美孚投资组合中最大的项目之一,它靠近印度可能会给埃克森美孚一个向快速增长的市场出口天然气的机会。</blockquote></p><p> But Mozambique lacks infrastructure and is fighting an Islamic State-linked insurgency that has claimed more than 3,000 lives.Total EnergiesSE halted construction of a $20 billion gas project there in March after violence erupted near its construction site. Exxon spent $2.8 billion to acquire a stake in the Rovuma project but has delayed a final investment decision for several years. Exxon hasn’t disclosed an exact estimate of the project’s cost; Mozambique has estimated it at $27 billion to $33 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是莫桑比克缺乏基础设施,而且正在与一个与伊斯兰国有关的叛乱分子作战,该叛乱分子已经夺去了3000多人的生命。今年3月,Total Energiesse在其建筑工地附近爆发暴力事件后,停止了该国一个200亿美元的天然气项目的建设。埃克森美孚斥资28亿美元收购了鲁伍马项目的股份,但将最终投资决定推迟了数年。埃克森美孚尚未透露该项目成本的确切估计;莫桑比克估计为270亿至330亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Abandoning the projects would represent another setback to plans by Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods to boost spending to increase production. Less than four years ago, Mr. Woods said the company would invest $230 billion to pump an additional one million barrels of oil and gas a day by 2025. Rovuma, in particular, was central to that strategy.The company has already pulled backparts of that strategy after the pandemic decimated demand for oil and gas last year, prompting it to undergo a belt tightening.</p><p><blockquote>放弃这些项目将是埃克森美孚首席执行官达伦·伍兹增加支出以增加产量的计划的又一次挫折。不到四年前,伍兹表示,该公司将投资2300亿美元,到2025年每天额外开采100万桶石油和天然气。鲁伍马尤其是这一战略的核心。去年疫情导致石油和天然气需求大幅下降后,该公司已经取消了这一战略,促使其勒紧裤腰带。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon’s fortunes have improved this year along with rising oil and gas prices. Analysts expect Exxon to report more than $6 billion in quarterly profit later this month, after a loss of $680 million during the same period last year. The company has said it would give priority to using cash to pay down debt and fund dividends.</p><p><blockquote>随着石油和天然气价格的上涨,埃克森美孚的命运今年有所改善。分析师预计,埃克森美孚本月晚些时候将公布超过60亿美元的季度利润,去年同期亏损6.8亿美元。该公司表示,将优先使用现金偿还债务和为股息提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon is planning to declare in coming weeks that it will increase its investment in a low-carbon unit it announced in February by billions of dollars, according to people familiar with the matter. It initially said it would invest $3 billion in the unit through 2025 to commercialize carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, biofuels and other technologies. Most of those businesses aren’t profitable, say analysts, and need significant public-policy support and technological advances to become so.</p><p><blockquote>据知情人士透露,埃克森美孚计划在未来几周宣布,将在2月份宣布的低碳部门增加数十亿美元的投资。该公司最初表示,到2025年将向该部门投资30亿美元,以实现碳捕获和储存、氢气、生物燃料和其他技术的商业化。分析师表示,这些企业中的大多数都没有盈利,需要大量的公共政策支持和技术进步才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon is also considering a pledgeto reduce and offset the carbon emissions from its operations to zero by 2050, the Journal has reported. Mr. Woods previously called such net zero commitments a “beauty competition.”</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道,埃克森美孚还在考虑承诺到2050年将其运营中的碳排放量减少并抵消至零。伍兹先生此前将这种净零承诺称为“选美比赛”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-debates-abandoning-some-of-its-biggest-oil-and-gas-projects-11634739779?mod=hp_lead_pos2\">Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-debates-abandoning-some-of-its-biggest-oil-and-gas-projects-11634739779?mod=hp_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172683327","content_text":"Exxon Mobil Corp.’s remade board of directors is debating whether to continue with several major oil and gas projects as the company reconsiders its investment strategy in a fast-changing energy landscape, according to people familiar with the matter.\nMembers of the board—which includes three directors successfully nominated by an activist investor in May and two other new members—have expressed concerns about certain projects, including a $30 billion liquefied natural gas development in Mozambique and another multibillion-dollar gas project in Vietnam, the people said.\nOil and gasprices are at multiyear highs, and the world is experiencing a shortage of fossil fuels as economies emerge from the pandemic. But it takes years for such energy megaprojects to produce additional supplies, and more years after that for the investments to pay off.\nExxon board members are weighing the fate of future projects as the company is facing pressure from investors to restrain fossil-fuel investment to limit carbon emissions and return more cash to shareholders. Environmentalists and some government officials are also pressuring the company to produce less oil and gas.\nThe discussions are taking place as part of a review of the oil company's five-year spending plan, on which the board is set to vote at the end of this month, the people said. It isn’t clear whether the board will make a final call on the Mozambique or Vietnam projects during the current review, according to the people.\nBoth projects face potential political obstacles, and some Exxon board members have expressed concerns about whether they would return the billions in upfront investment they would require, some of the people said. The board meetings have been cordial, the people said.\nExxon said it doesn’t discuss internal board deliberations. “Any depiction of the board’s discussions as being less than constructive in tone or substance is wrong,” said Exxon spokesman Casey Norton.\nAs part of the review, Exxon is analyzing the expected carbon emissions from each project and how they would affect the company’s ability to meet pledges to reduce emissions, people familiar with the matter said. The annual projected emissions from the Mozambique and Vietnam projects were among the highest in Exxon’s planned pipeline of oil and gas projects, according to a pre-pandemic internal analysis by Exxon, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.\nMr. Norton said the analysis of projected carbon emissions the Journal reviewed was several years old and didn’t include the impact of Exxon’s most recent emission reduction plans and other post-Covid-19 changes.\nThe discussions over the projects represent a new dynamic for Exxon’s board, said people familiar with the matter.\nEngine No. 1, the hedge fund that led a campaign that replaced three Exxon board members earlier this year, argued Exxon was investing in low-return projects and lacked a coherent strategy to chart a transition to lower-carbon fuels amid growing concerns about climate change.\nThe activist was successful in part because it was able to win support from some of the company’s largest investors, including BlackRock Inc.and Vanguard Group. The asset managers said one of the reasons they supported the Engine candidates was that Exxon’s board lacked energy expertise and independence.\nGregory Goff, one of the Engine No. 1 nominees, is among the directors to raise doubts about the Mozambique project, people familiar with the matter said. Mr. Goff, the former chief executive of Andeavor, which was one the largest U.S. refiners before being purchased by Marathon Petroleum Corp., has said that Exxon should consider more closely the risks presented by the project to assess whether it justifies investing, the people said.\nThe Mozambique project, called Rovuma, would tap vast reserves of natural gas off the coast of the southern African country, then chill them to a liquid state at an onshore plant to be exported around the world. It is one of the largest projects in Exxon’s portfolio, and its proximity to India could give Exxon an opportunity to export gas to a fast-growing market.\nBut Mozambique lacks infrastructure and is fighting an Islamic State-linked insurgency that has claimed more than 3,000 lives.Total EnergiesSE halted construction of a $20 billion gas project there in March after violence erupted near its construction site. Exxon spent $2.8 billion to acquire a stake in the Rovuma project but has delayed a final investment decision for several years. Exxon hasn’t disclosed an exact estimate of the project’s cost; Mozambique has estimated it at $27 billion to $33 billion.\nAbandoning the projects would represent another setback to plans by Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods to boost spending to increase production. Less than four years ago, Mr. Woods said the company would invest $230 billion to pump an additional one million barrels of oil and gas a day by 2025. Rovuma, in particular, was central to that strategy.The company has already pulled backparts of that strategy after the pandemic decimated demand for oil and gas last year, prompting it to undergo a belt tightening.\nExxon’s fortunes have improved this year along with rising oil and gas prices. Analysts expect Exxon to report more than $6 billion in quarterly profit later this month, after a loss of $680 million during the same period last year. The company has said it would give priority to using cash to pay down debt and fund dividends.\nExxon is planning to declare in coming weeks that it will increase its investment in a low-carbon unit it announced in February by billions of dollars, according to people familiar with the matter. It initially said it would invest $3 billion in the unit through 2025 to commercialize carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, biofuels and other technologies. Most of those businesses aren’t profitable, say analysts, and need significant public-policy support and technological advances to become so.\nExxon is also considering a pledgeto reduce and offset the carbon emissions from its operations to zero by 2050, the Journal has reported. Mr. Woods previously called such net zero commitments a “beauty competition.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825607725,"gmtCreate":1634220460391,"gmtModify":1634220460518,"author":{"id":"3578371160956810","authorId":"3578371160956810","name":"NadNad","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b9cb8b114a799d8c15172b886370b7e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578371160956810","idStr":"3578371160956810"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825607725","repostId":"1176037392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176037392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634217624,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176037392?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 21:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176037392","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales","content":"<p>Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.</p><p><blockquote>由于有报道称零部件短缺可能影响iPhone 13的销售,苹果股价遭受重创。这位苹果专家认为,长期投资者不必太担心。</blockquote></p><p> The recent news has not been very favorable for Apple and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.</p><p><blockquote>最近的消息对苹果及其股票来说并不是很有利。据彭博社报道,iPhone 13正面临供应链问题。零部件短缺可能导致今年苹果设备产量下降1000万台。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布后,苹果股价并未暴跌,但再次跌破每股140美元——这是自2021年7月上旬以来从未见过的水平。然而,这位苹果专家认为,长期投资者不应该担心最近涉及iPhone的事态发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c2295e5c2fd9f6f41f8a86c0a4c8ce\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone 13 new model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1:iPhone 13新款。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>This seems familiar…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这似乎很熟悉……</b></blockquote></p><p> First, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?</p><p><blockquote>首先,读者必须了解苹果股票投资者和交易者有不同类型。许多人购买股票是希望获得短期收益,而另一些人则长期押注股票。事实上,短线交易者可能有充分的理由感到担忧。如果苹果下个季度的iPhone销量未达到预期,并且该股因此做出负面反应怎么办?</blockquote></p><p> But long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>但长期持有者可能会进一步关注苹果未来的业务基本面。有足够多的报道表明,对iPhone 13的需求一直很高,可能甚至比对已经成功的iPhone 12的需求还要好。</blockquote></p><p> If enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>如果对一种产品有足够的需求,有理由认为暂时的供应链问题只会导致销售从一个时期转移到下一个时期。这正是2020年发生的情况,当时COVID-19危机导致iPhone 12在假期晚些时候亮相并推出。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了2019财年和2020财年以及今年上半年的iPhone销量增长情况。请注意,由于生产延迟,2019年痛苦的收入下降似乎创造了去年第四财季未得到满足的被压抑需求。当这些问题最终得到解决时,2021财年的收入猛增。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f351ccb2a56f417bb16d8f0246fcc4\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2:2019-2021年iPhone增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Average iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.</p><p><blockquote>从2020财年开始到现在,iPhone的平均销量增长了14%,尽管每个季度的收入都非常不稳定。同期,尽管去年存在供应链问题,苹果股价仍上涨了90%。</blockquote></p><p> Could the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.</p><p><blockquote>当前的零部件短缺会导致收入再次在日历上发生变化吗?我认为这是合理的,如果不太可能的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple is a good place to hide</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果是个藏身的好地方</b></blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是,所谓的生产延误并不是苹果特有的问题。今年从大流行中复苏的零部件短缺已被充分记录,并且似乎正在全面影响消费技术供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.</p><p><blockquote>当然,投资者可以选择根本不投资科技行业,因为担心随着全球经济继续反弹,整个行业的表现将不佳。但如果要在该领域投入资金,我认为苹果是一个比平均水平更安全的选择,因为它拥有一流的供应链管理。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, I explained in more detail that Apple has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.</p><p><blockquote>去年,我更详细地解释了苹果在首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)的领导下已成为“库存管理之王”,蒂姆·库克也是库比蒂诺公司的前首席运营官。因此,如果我押注一家公司能很好地处理供应链问题,它可能是最具购买力且在管理库存方面拥有良好记录的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 21:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.</p><p><blockquote>由于有报道称零部件短缺可能影响iPhone 13的销售,苹果股价遭受重创。这位苹果专家认为,长期投资者不必太担心。</blockquote></p><p> The recent news has not been very favorable for Apple and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.</p><p><blockquote>最近的消息对苹果及其股票来说并不是很有利。据彭博社报道,iPhone 13正面临供应链问题。零部件短缺可能导致今年苹果设备产量下降1000万台。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布后,苹果股价并未暴跌,但再次跌破每股140美元——这是自2021年7月上旬以来从未见过的水平。然而,这位苹果专家认为,长期投资者不应该担心最近涉及iPhone的事态发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c2295e5c2fd9f6f41f8a86c0a4c8ce\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone 13 new model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1:iPhone 13新款。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>This seems familiar…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这似乎很熟悉……</b></blockquote></p><p> First, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?</p><p><blockquote>首先,读者必须了解苹果股票投资者和交易者有不同类型。许多人购买股票是希望获得短期收益,而另一些人则长期押注股票。事实上,短线交易者可能有充分的理由感到担忧。如果苹果下个季度的iPhone销量未达到预期,并且该股因此做出负面反应怎么办?</blockquote></p><p> But long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>但长期持有者可能会进一步关注苹果未来的业务基本面。有足够多的报道表明,对iPhone 13的需求一直很高,可能甚至比对已经成功的iPhone 12的需求还要好。</blockquote></p><p> If enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>如果对一种产品有足够的需求,有理由认为暂时的供应链问题只会导致销售从一个时期转移到下一个时期。这正是2020年发生的情况,当时COVID-19危机导致iPhone 12在假期晚些时候亮相并推出。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了2019财年和2020财年以及今年上半年的iPhone销量增长情况。请注意,由于生产延迟,2019年痛苦的收入下降似乎创造了去年第四财季未得到满足的被压抑需求。当这些问题最终得到解决时,2021财年的收入猛增。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f351ccb2a56f417bb16d8f0246fcc4\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2:2019-2021年iPhone增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Average iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.</p><p><blockquote>从2020财年开始到现在,iPhone的平均销量增长了14%,尽管每个季度的收入都非常不稳定。同期,尽管去年存在供应链问题,苹果股价仍上涨了90%。</blockquote></p><p> Could the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.</p><p><blockquote>当前的零部件短缺会导致收入再次在日历上发生变化吗?我认为这是合理的,如果不太可能的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple is a good place to hide</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果是个藏身的好地方</b></blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是,所谓的生产延误并不是苹果特有的问题。今年从大流行中复苏的零部件短缺已被充分记录,并且似乎正在全面影响消费技术供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.</p><p><blockquote>当然,投资者可以选择根本不投资科技行业,因为担心随着全球经济继续反弹,整个行业的表现将不佳。但如果要在该领域投入资金,我认为苹果是一个比平均水平更安全的选择,因为它拥有一流的供应链管理。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, I explained in more detail that Apple has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.</p><p><blockquote>去年,我更详细地解释了苹果在首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)的领导下已成为“库存管理之王”,蒂姆·库克也是库比蒂诺公司的前首席运营官。因此,如果我押注一家公司能很好地处理供应链问题,它可能是最具购买力且在管理库存方面拥有良好记录的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/why-iphone-supply-hiccup-is-not-a-problem-for-apple-stock\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/why-iphone-supply-hiccup-is-not-a-problem-for-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176037392","content_text":"Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.\nThe recent news has not been very favorable for Apple and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.\nApple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.\nFigure 1: iPhone 13 new model.\nThis seems familiar…\nFirst, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?\nBut long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.\nIf enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.\nThe chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.\nFigure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.\nAverage iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.\nCould the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.\nApple is a good place to hide\nTo be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.\nOf course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.\nLast year, I explained in more detail that Apple has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821157960,"gmtCreate":1633708545252,"gmtModify":1633708545618,"author":{"id":"3578371160956810","authorId":"3578371160956810","name":"NadNad","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b9cb8b114a799d8c15172b886370b7e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578371160956810","idStr":"3578371160956810"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821157960","repostId":"1133780035","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823629895,"gmtCreate":1633619106494,"gmtModify":1633619109059,"author":{"id":"3578371160956810","authorId":"3578371160956810","name":"NadNad","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b9cb8b114a799d8c15172b886370b7e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578371160956810","idStr":"3578371160956810"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻 ","listText":"👍🏻 ","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823629895","repostId":"2173944807","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829559270,"gmtCreate":1633528861691,"gmtModify":1633528862103,"author":{"id":"3578371160956810","authorId":"3578371160956810","name":"NadNad","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b9cb8b114a799d8c15172b886370b7e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578371160956810","idStr":"3578371160956810"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like ","listText":"Like ","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829559270","repostId":"1168850593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168850593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633526214,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168850593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 21:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168850593","media":"Barron's","summary":"October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But","content":"<p>October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.</p><p><blockquote>十月标志着第四季度的开始,通常是股市强劲的三个月。但这一次的开局并不稳定——这是一个警告,投资者不应忽视今年剩余时间可能带来的情况。</blockquote></p><p> The red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.</p><p><blockquote>危险信号并不是转移视线:商业银行Truist的策略师表示,自1950年以来,标准普尔500指数第四季度上涨了79%。平均涨幅为4%。</blockquote></p><p> But on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>但周一,即10月份第一个完整交易周开始时,标普500出现抛售——就像9月份大部分时间一样。该指数当天收盘下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.</p><p><blockquote>原因有很多,但让我们从更多的历史开始。</blockquote></p><p> After a bad September—the S&P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers. On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了糟糕的9月份(标普500上个月下跌了5%)之后,通常会迎来糟糕的10月份。该指数在10月份仅上涨了54%。根据美国银行的数据,平均而言,9月份下跌意味着10月份下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Then, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.</p><p><blockquote>然后,还有一个残酷的现实,市场即将出现调整——下跌10%或更多。上周之前,标普500一年来收盘价从未低于历史收盘高点5%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”</p><p><blockquote>ZEGA Financial首席执行官杰伊·佩斯特里切利(Jay Pestrichelli)写道:“我认为我们还没有看到股市触底。”“虽然9月份股市下跌令人不安,但远未达到传统的10%市场回调。”</blockquote></p><p> Now consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.</p><p><blockquote>现在考虑潜伏在背景中的经济和企业基本面风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀不会消失。材料和劳动力成本上升(部分原因是供应短缺)正在削弱一些公司的利润率。对于大盘来说,物价上涨增加了美联储明年提高短期利率的可能性。如果美联储确实加息,经济增长可能会放缓,特别是因为通胀已经侵蚀了经济需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”</p><p><blockquote>Catalyst Capital Advisors联合创始人兼首席投资官戴维·米勒(David Miller)表示:“通胀确实在加剧,他们(美联储)不能让通胀猖獗。”“在明确美联储实际要做什么之前,市场普遍感到担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>最后,谨防长期债券收益率上升。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示,美联储可能会在年底前开始“缩减”,即减少每月的债券购买量。</blockquote></p><p> Less money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>进入债券市场的资金减少会降低债券价格并提高收益率。这使得未来的利润变得不那么有价值。标普500的平均预期一年市盈率已为20倍,低于今年早些时候的22倍。</blockquote></p><p> So the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.</p><p><blockquote>那么外卖呢?以史为鉴——让根本性风险尘埃落定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 21:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.</p><p><blockquote>十月标志着第四季度的开始,通常是股市强劲的三个月。但这一次的开局并不稳定——这是一个警告,投资者不应忽视今年剩余时间可能带来的情况。</blockquote></p><p> The red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.</p><p><blockquote>危险信号并不是转移视线:商业银行Truist的策略师表示,自1950年以来,标准普尔500指数第四季度上涨了79%。平均涨幅为4%。</blockquote></p><p> But on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>但周一,即10月份第一个完整交易周开始时,标普500出现抛售——就像9月份大部分时间一样。该指数当天收盘下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.</p><p><blockquote>原因有很多,但让我们从更多的历史开始。</blockquote></p><p> After a bad September—the S&P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers. On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了糟糕的9月份(标普500上个月下跌了5%)之后,通常会迎来糟糕的10月份。该指数在10月份仅上涨了54%。根据美国银行的数据,平均而言,9月份下跌意味着10月份下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Then, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.</p><p><blockquote>然后,还有一个残酷的现实,市场即将出现调整——下跌10%或更多。上周之前,标普500一年来收盘价从未低于历史收盘高点5%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”</p><p><blockquote>ZEGA Financial首席执行官杰伊·佩斯特里切利(Jay Pestrichelli)写道:“我认为我们还没有看到股市触底。”“虽然9月份股市下跌令人不安,但远未达到传统的10%市场回调。”</blockquote></p><p> Now consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.</p><p><blockquote>现在考虑潜伏在背景中的经济和企业基本面风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀不会消失。材料和劳动力成本上升(部分原因是供应短缺)正在削弱一些公司的利润率。对于大盘来说,物价上涨增加了美联储明年提高短期利率的可能性。如果美联储确实加息,经济增长可能会放缓,特别是因为通胀已经侵蚀了经济需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”</p><p><blockquote>Catalyst Capital Advisors联合创始人兼首席投资官戴维·米勒(David Miller)表示:“通胀确实在加剧,他们(美联储)不能让通胀猖獗。”“在明确美联储实际要做什么之前,市场普遍感到担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>最后,谨防长期债券收益率上升。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示,美联储可能会在年底前开始“缩减”,即减少每月的债券购买量。</blockquote></p><p> Less money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>进入债券市场的资金减少会降低债券价格并提高收益率。这使得未来的利润变得不那么有价值。标普500的平均预期一年市盈率已为20倍,低于今年早些时候的22倍。</blockquote></p><p> So the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.</p><p><blockquote>那么外卖呢?以史为鉴——让根本性风险尘埃落定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-51633380291?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-51633380291?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168850593","content_text":"October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.\nThe red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.\nBut on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.\nThe reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.\nAfter a bad September—the S&P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers. On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.\nThen, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.\n“I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”\nNow consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.\nInflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.\n“Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”\nLastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.\nLess money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.\nSo the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}