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Canokira

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- CanokiraCanokira
  ·2021-07-13
  njce
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,897 评论
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- CanokiraCanokira
  ·2021-07-09
  like and share
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,937 评论
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- CanokiraCanokira
  ·2021-07-09
  nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,695 评论
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- CanokiraCanokira
  ·2021-07-03
  this is a very strong one
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  4,101 1
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- CanokiraCanokira
  ·2021-07-01
  like
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- CanokiraCanokira
  ·2021-06-29
  it will continue to fly
  Palantir: The Mass Exodus<blockquote>Palantir：大规模出走</blockquote>
  Summary Short interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle. Even though Palantir conti
  Palantir: The Mass Exodus<blockquote>Palantir：大规模出走</blockquote>
  1,974 评论
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- CanokiraCanokira
  ·2021-06-28
  Nice
  The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>
  The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has
  The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>
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- CanokiraCanokira
  ·2021-06-26
  nice!!!!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- CanokiraCanokira
  ·2021-06-24
  nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,779 评论
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- CanokiraCanokira
  ·2021-06-21
  nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,096 1
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and share","listText":"like and share","text":"like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141906600","repostId":"2150716443","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141901554,"gmtCreate":1625829726878,"gmtModify":1633936927324,"author":{"id":"3580863560680452","authorId":"3580863560680452","name":"Canokira","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0562a6b7ded0dcc81f834c3e023b803a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580863560680452","authorIdStr":"3580863560680452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141901554","repostId":"1161133836","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152941123,"gmtCreate":1625266740762,"gmtModify":1631883984710,"author":{"id":"3580863560680452","authorId":"3580863560680452","name":"Canokira","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0562a6b7ded0dcc81f834c3e023b803a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580863560680452","authorIdStr":"3580863560680452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"this is a very strong one","listText":"this is a very strong one","text":"this is a very strong one","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152941123","repostId":"1133195819","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158811018,"gmtCreate":1625143153834,"gmtModify":1633944339768,"author":{"id":"3580863560680452","authorId":"3580863560680452","name":"Canokira","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0562a6b7ded0dcc81f834c3e023b803a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580863560680452","authorIdStr":"3580863560680452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like&nbsp;","listText":"like&nbsp;","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158811018","repostId":"1175262828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150597344,"gmtCreate":1624920542888,"gmtModify":1633947143929,"author":{"id":"3580863560680452","authorId":"3580863560680452","name":"Canokira","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0562a6b7ded0dcc81f834c3e023b803a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580863560680452","authorIdStr":"3580863560680452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"it will continue to fly","listText":"it will continue to fly","text":"it will continue to fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150597344","repostId":"1105982179","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105982179","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624889210,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105982179?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Mass Exodus<blockquote>Palantir：大规模出走</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105982179","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir conti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Short interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.</li>  <li>Even though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.</li>  <li>The stock could rally further.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16279727ada0c46eb4d43744da02d1cc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在最近一个周期中，Palantir 的空头兴趣下降了 23.8%。</li><li>尽管 Palantir 继续被看跌言论所包围，但市场参与者似乎并不愿意做空该股。</li><li>该股可能会进一步上涨。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 的股价仅上个月就上涨了 20%，但涨势仍可能持续。最新数据显示，仅在最近一个周期，对 Palantir 的空头兴趣就下降了 23.8%。这表明广大市场参与者并不相信围绕该公司的看跌说法，认为其股票估值合理，甚至可能预计其未来会上涨。这一进展对于该公司的多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象。让我们仔细看看这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Data</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据</b></blockquote></p><p> I'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>我想首先为门外汉解释一下“空头利息”这个术语。它本质上是针对任何给定股票的空头头寸总数。该指标的急剧上升表明交易员对相关公司变得看跌，并积极针对该公司建立空头头寸。相反，该指标的急剧下降表明交易者积极平仓空头头寸，可能是因为他们预计股票将触底和/或未来反弹。因此，空头利息是衡量华尔街不断变化的市场情绪的有用工具。</blockquote></p><p> In Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>以 Palantir 为例，在最新数据周期结束时，其空头权益为 5230 万，环比大幅下降 23.8%。尽管 Palantir 的空头利息数字尚未处于历史最低点，但其最近的下降速度无疑是该公司自去年直接上市以来短暂历史上最快的下降速度之一。根据记录，Palantir 拥有超过 18 亿股流通股，这意味着其全部股票总数的约 2.8% 已被做空。此外，空头利息数据涵盖 6 月初至 6 月中旬的周期，该数据于周四发布。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95e4623fda1d9079a2699b57d4ee0f42\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Next, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我想确认其他软件应用公司的空头利息数字是否也大幅下降，或者 Palantir 是否是同行中的一个异常现象。因此，为了更广泛地了解其行业，我绘制了大约 100 只在美国上市的软件应用股票的空头利息数据。有趣的是，这些股票中有 55% 的空头利息数字出现净下降，当然幅度各不相同，这表明整个行业的空头平仓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091feec9aa17f821d01f34a7b46bb2bb\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"506\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：BusinessQuant.com、Wsj.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>此外，空头利息下降幅度中位数为 1.9%，而 Palantir 的空头利息在同一数据周期内下降幅度更大，达到 23.8%。事实上，我们的研究组中只有其他6只股票，其空头利息下降超过23.8%。这最终表明市场参与者在平仓 Palantir 空头头寸方面过于积极。</blockquote></p><p> But this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?</p><p><blockquote>但这给我们带来了一个重要的问题——为什么市场参与者首先对做空 Palantir 如此谨慎？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cautious for Good Reason</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有充分理由谨慎</b></blockquote></p><p> As I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中解释的那样，Palantir有几项举措可以共同推动其在2021-22年的增长。这些举措包括向客户友好的支付模式过渡以促进商业销售，向大公司提供免费试用以扩大其销售渠道，以及扩大其销售团队以改进其对外营销功能。为了避免重复，我们不会再次讨论相同的观点，但这里的要点是，由于 Palantir 正在采取多项增长计划，因此至少目前这是一个有风险的空头押注。</blockquote></p><p> But don't take my word for it.</p><p><blockquote>但不要相信我的话。</blockquote></p><p> The community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.</p><p><blockquote>专业分析师社区正在意识到 Palantir 的增长潜力，并提高了其当前财年的收入预期。自 1 月中旬以来，他们已将 21 财年收入预期上调了约 5%，目前尚不清楚 Palantir 21 财年剩余时间内仍有多少此类收入上调。这种看涨的不确定性给空头市场参与者带来了不利的风险回报率，并解释了为什么对 Palantir 的空头兴趣持续下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74bccdf90ceb880c1a3edddad8743a1e\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> There's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一点需要考虑，似乎没有人谈论。在过去的12-15个月里，随着全球政府机构努力控制病毒传播并试图更好地管理其资源，Palantir赢得了几份与新冠肺炎跟踪相关的合同（如ashere、here、here和here）。据说 COVID-19 将凭借 Delta 变体强势卷土重来，我认为 Palantir 今年可能会经历来自积极主动的政府机构的类似订单意外之财，这可能会在此过程中促进该公司的政府销售。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>最后，一些评论者认为 Palantir 的股价正在溢价，并且应该会出现大幅调整。其股价在过去 12 个月销售额中的交易价格约为 34 倍，因此许多人认为该股被高估是可以理解的。但我认为这种方法的问题在于，与同行相比，我们没有考虑全行业的交易倍数或 Palantir 的收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> So, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>因此，为了客观地看待事情，我编制了目前在美国交易所上市的320多只软件基础设施和软件应用股票的收入增长率和市销率（或P/S）倍数。接下来，我根据 Palantir 的收入增长率及其市盈率对这些行业集团进行了基准测试。事实证明，超过 90% 的 Palantir 同行收入增长较慢和/或交易倍数较高。这表明 Palantir 较高的增长率证明了其价格溢价的合理性，并且对其估值的悲观担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefb171f61438817b747d6a50fff8133\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: Business Quant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Business Quant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.</p><p><blockquote>我想向读者指出，空头利息数据的波动并不总是影响标的股票价格。该数据基于在先前截止日期开立的空头头寸，具有长期期限的投资者充其量应该使用它来证实他们的牛市或熊市论点。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，如果围绕 Palantir 的看跌说法有任何价值，或者对其股价构成合法风险，那么广大市场参与者就会积极做空该股，以从这种几乎确定的可能性中获利。但这并没有发生，其空头利息反而下降了，而且下降幅度也很大。</blockquote></p><p> This active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>这种积极的空头平仓表明市场参与者对在当前水平做空该股感到不安。对于公司的长期股东来说，这应该是一个令人放心的迹象。该股似乎估值合理，并有进一步上涨的潜力。祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Mass Exodus<blockquote>Palantir：大规模出走</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Mass Exodus<blockquote>Palantir：大规模出走</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 22:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Short interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.</li>  <li>Even though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.</li>  <li>The stock could rally further.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16279727ada0c46eb4d43744da02d1cc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在最近一个周期中，Palantir 的空头兴趣下降了 23.8%。</li><li>尽管 Palantir 继续被看跌言论所包围，但市场参与者似乎并不愿意做空该股。</li><li>该股可能会进一步上涨。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 的股价仅上个月就上涨了 20%，但涨势仍可能持续。最新数据显示，仅在最近一个周期，对 Palantir 的空头兴趣就下降了 23.8%。这表明广大市场参与者并不相信围绕该公司的看跌说法，认为其股票估值合理，甚至可能预计其未来会上涨。这一进展对于该公司的多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象。让我们仔细看看这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Data</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据</b></blockquote></p><p> I'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>我想首先为门外汉解释一下“空头利息”这个术语。它本质上是针对任何给定股票的空头头寸总数。该指标的急剧上升表明交易员对相关公司变得看跌，并积极针对该公司建立空头头寸。相反，该指标的急剧下降表明交易者积极平仓空头头寸，可能是因为他们预计股票将触底和/或未来反弹。因此，空头利息是衡量华尔街不断变化的市场情绪的有用工具。</blockquote></p><p> In Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>以 Palantir 为例，在最新数据周期结束时，其空头权益为 5230 万，环比大幅下降 23.8%。尽管 Palantir 的空头利息数字尚未处于历史最低点，但其最近的下降速度无疑是该公司自去年直接上市以来短暂历史上最快的下降速度之一。根据记录，Palantir 拥有超过 18 亿股流通股，这意味着其全部股票总数的约 2.8% 已被做空。此外，空头利息数据涵盖 6 月初至 6 月中旬的周期，该数据于周四发布。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95e4623fda1d9079a2699b57d4ee0f42\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Next, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我想确认其他软件应用公司的空头利息数字是否也大幅下降，或者 Palantir 是否是同行中的一个异常现象。因此，为了更广泛地了解其行业，我绘制了大约 100 只在美国上市的软件应用股票的空头利息数据。有趣的是，这些股票中有 55% 的空头利息数字出现净下降，当然幅度各不相同，这表明整个行业的空头平仓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091feec9aa17f821d01f34a7b46bb2bb\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"506\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：BusinessQuant.com、Wsj.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>此外，空头利息下降幅度中位数为 1.9%，而 Palantir 的空头利息在同一数据周期内下降幅度更大，达到 23.8%。事实上，我们的研究组中只有其他6只股票，其空头利息下降超过23.8%。这最终表明市场参与者在平仓 Palantir 空头头寸方面过于积极。</blockquote></p><p> But this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?</p><p><blockquote>但这给我们带来了一个重要的问题——为什么市场参与者首先对做空 Palantir 如此谨慎？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cautious for Good Reason</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有充分理由谨慎</b></blockquote></p><p> As I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中解释的那样，Palantir有几项举措可以共同推动其在2021-22年的增长。这些举措包括向客户友好的支付模式过渡以促进商业销售，向大公司提供免费试用以扩大其销售渠道，以及扩大其销售团队以改进其对外营销功能。为了避免重复，我们不会再次讨论相同的观点，但这里的要点是，由于 Palantir 正在采取多项增长计划，因此至少目前这是一个有风险的空头押注。</blockquote></p><p> But don't take my word for it.</p><p><blockquote>但不要相信我的话。</blockquote></p><p> The community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.</p><p><blockquote>专业分析师社区正在意识到 Palantir 的增长潜力，并提高了其当前财年的收入预期。自 1 月中旬以来，他们已将 21 财年收入预期上调了约 5%，目前尚不清楚 Palantir 21 财年剩余时间内仍有多少此类收入上调。这种看涨的不确定性给空头市场参与者带来了不利的风险回报率，并解释了为什么对 Palantir 的空头兴趣持续下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74bccdf90ceb880c1a3edddad8743a1e\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> There's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一点需要考虑，似乎没有人谈论。在过去的12-15个月里，随着全球政府机构努力控制病毒传播并试图更好地管理其资源，Palantir赢得了几份与新冠肺炎跟踪相关的合同（如ashere、here、here和here）。据说 COVID-19 将凭借 Delta 变体强势卷土重来，我认为 Palantir 今年可能会经历来自积极主动的政府机构的类似订单意外之财，这可能会在此过程中促进该公司的政府销售。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>最后，一些评论者认为 Palantir 的股价正在溢价，并且应该会出现大幅调整。其股价在过去 12 个月销售额中的交易价格约为 34 倍，因此许多人认为该股被高估是可以理解的。但我认为这种方法的问题在于，与同行相比，我们没有考虑全行业的交易倍数或 Palantir 的收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> So, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>因此，为了客观地看待事情，我编制了目前在美国交易所上市的320多只软件基础设施和软件应用股票的收入增长率和市销率（或P/S）倍数。接下来，我根据 Palantir 的收入增长率及其市盈率对这些行业集团进行了基准测试。事实证明，超过 90% 的 Palantir 同行收入增长较慢和/或交易倍数较高。这表明 Palantir 较高的增长率证明了其价格溢价的合理性，并且对其估值的悲观担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefb171f61438817b747d6a50fff8133\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: Business Quant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Business Quant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.</p><p><blockquote>我想向读者指出，空头利息数据的波动并不总是影响标的股票价格。该数据基于在先前截止日期开立的空头头寸，具有长期期限的投资者充其量应该使用它来证实他们的牛市或熊市论点。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，如果围绕 Palantir 的看跌说法有任何价值，或者对其股价构成合法风险，那么广大市场参与者就会积极做空该股，以从这种几乎确定的可能性中获利。但这并没有发生，其空头利息反而下降了，而且下降幅度也很大。</blockquote></p><p> This active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>这种积极的空头平仓表明市场参与者对在当前水平做空该股感到不安。对于公司的长期股东来说，这应该是一个令人放心的迹象。该股似乎估值合理，并有进一步上涨的潜力。祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105982179","content_text":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.\nThe stock could rally further.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPalantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nThe Data\nI'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.\nIn Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.\n\nNext, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)\nMoreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.\nBut this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?\nCautious for Good Reason\nAs I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.\nBut don't take my word for it.\nThe community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.\n\nThere's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.\nLastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.\nSo, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.\n(Source: Business Quant.com)\nFinal Thoughts\nI'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.\nHaving said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.\nThis active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127287222,"gmtCreate":1624851193266,"gmtModify":1633947959680,"author":{"id":"3580863560680452","authorId":"3580863560680452","name":"Canokira","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0562a6b7ded0dcc81f834c3e023b803a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580863560680452","authorIdStr":"3580863560680452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127287222","repostId":"1177492181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177492181","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624849703,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1177492181?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177492181","media":"WSJ","summary":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has ","content":"<p>The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市表面上尽可能平静，但背后却比几十年来更加动荡。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自 10 月底以来，该指数从未根据收盘价进行过 5% 的调整；难怪开始锁定购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。标准普尔上一次如此平静是在 2017 年，那是一段平静时期，随着 2018 年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间甚至更长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.</p><p><blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时要大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外前所未有的速度在行业之间转换押注；3月份出现了自2002年以来表现最好和最差的行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote></p><p> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自 1995 年以来最弱的；投资者正在利用它们作为押注经济复苏或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，大盘股和小盘股上一次如此独立地走势是在 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这是蒂娜的另一个方面：除了股票没有其他选择。由于国债、公司债券和现金回报率微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的收益希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券，反之亦然的投资者现在只是从一种股票转向另一种股票——因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证它会继续这样下去。让足够的恐惧发挥作用，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会赶紧退出，就像他们去年 3 月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来很好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通货膨胀率的长期债券是合理的。时光看起来确实不错。</blockquote></p><p> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.</p><p><blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施助长了巨大的泡沫。自 2000 年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易则明显带有泡沫心态。一组深受散户交易员欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的榜单上，特别是 GameStoPandAMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等热门股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，股票比平时贵得多。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会有很大的波动性，而不是外表平静、内心动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被其他人放大，他们担心泡沫即将破裂。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月份的盘中峰值到10月份的低点，跌幅达13%。</blockquote></p><p> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.</p><p><blockquote>这一次，对股市最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，蒂娜购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote></p><p> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”</p><p><blockquote>“花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特-巴克兰（Robert Buckland）说：”市场内部波动很大，但市场波动却不大。“如果除了拥有指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会有所改变”。</blockquote></p><p> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.</p><p><blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当股票还有其他选择时，股票价格是多么敏感。美联储在吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）中提供 0.05% 而不是 0% 的利率，略低于底线，并立即额外吸收了 2350 亿美元。关于两年内加息而不是之前预测的三年的说法增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了 2% 多一点，然后恢复了向上攀升。</blockquote></p><p> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都没做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并使现金再次具有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这种情况不太可能很快发生，但可能将市场深处的动荡带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市表面上尽可能平静，但背后却比几十年来更加动荡。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自 10 月底以来，该指数从未根据收盘价进行过 5% 的调整；难怪开始锁定购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。标准普尔上一次如此平静是在 2017 年，那是一段平静时期，随着 2018 年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间甚至更长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.</p><p><blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时要大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外前所未有的速度在行业之间转换押注；3月份出现了自2002年以来表现最好和最差的行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote></p><p> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自 1995 年以来最弱的；投资者正在利用它们作为押注经济复苏或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，大盘股和小盘股上一次如此独立地走势是在 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这是蒂娜的另一个方面：除了股票没有其他选择。由于国债、公司债券和现金回报率微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的收益希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券，反之亦然的投资者现在只是从一种股票转向另一种股票——因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证它会继续这样下去。让足够的恐惧发挥作用，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会赶紧退出，就像他们去年 3 月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来很好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通货膨胀率的长期债券是合理的。时光看起来确实不错。</blockquote></p><p> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.</p><p><blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施助长了巨大的泡沫。自 2000 年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易则明显带有泡沫心态。一组深受散户交易员欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的榜单上，特别是 GameStoPandAMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等热门股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，股票比平时贵得多。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会有很大的波动性，而不是外表平静、内心动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被其他人放大，他们担心泡沫即将破裂。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月份的盘中峰值到10月份的低点，跌幅达13%。</blockquote></p><p> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.</p><p><blockquote>这一次，对股市最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，蒂娜购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote></p><p> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”</p><p><blockquote>“花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特-巴克兰（Robert Buckland）说：”市场内部波动很大，但市场波动却不大。“如果除了拥有指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会有所改变”。</blockquote></p><p> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.</p><p><blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当股票还有其他选择时，股票价格是多么敏感。美联储在吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）中提供 0.05% 而不是 0% 的利率，略低于底线，并立即额外吸收了 2350 亿美元。关于两年内加息而不是之前预测的三年的说法增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了 2% 多一点，然后恢复了向上攀升。</blockquote></p><p> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都没做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并使现金再次具有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这种情况不太可能很快发生，但可能将市场深处的动荡带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177492181","content_text":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.\nThe S&P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.\nYet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.\nThe link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.\nMeanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.\nI think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.\nThere is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.\nA widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.\nIt is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.\nThis time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.\n“You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”\nThis month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.\nIf that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125918621,"gmtCreate":1624640740363,"gmtModify":1633950138720,"author":{"id":"3580863560680452","authorId":"3580863560680452","name":"Canokira","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0562a6b7ded0dcc81f834c3e023b803a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580863560680452","authorIdStr":"3580863560680452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice!!!!","listText":"nice!!!!","text":"nice!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125918621","repostId":"1198714523","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128566644,"gmtCreate":1624524168788,"gmtModify":1634004890748,"author":{"id":"3580863560680452","authorId":"3580863560680452","name":"Canokira","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0562a6b7ded0dcc81f834c3e023b803a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580863560680452","authorIdStr":"3580863560680452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128566644","repostId":"1166720474","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167876207,"gmtCreate":1624262600109,"gmtModify":1634008732611,"author":{"id":"3580863560680452","authorId":"3580863560680452","name":"Canokira","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0562a6b7ded0dcc81f834c3e023b803a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580863560680452","authorIdStr":"3580863560680452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167876207","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}