社区
首页
集团介绍
社区
资讯
行情
学堂
TigerAI
登录
注册
Grit100
IP属地：未知
+关注
帖子 · 223
帖子 · 223
关注 · 0
关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0
粉丝 · 0
Grit100
Grit100
·
2022-01-06
Ok
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
4,286
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Grit100
Grit100
·
2022-01-05
Ok
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
4,074
回复
评论
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Grit100
Grit100
·
2022-01-04
Ok
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
3,943
回复
评论
点赞
3
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Grit100
Grit100
·
2022-01-03
Ok
71 years of stock market data reveals investors may be happy in the New Year<blockquote>71年的股市数据显示投资者可能会在新的一年里感到高兴</blockquote>
After a nearly 29% total return for the S&P 500 this year, history suggests 2022 may see more gains
71 years of stock market data reveals investors may be happy in the New Year<blockquote>71年的股市数据显示投资者可能会在新的一年里感到高兴</blockquote>
看
2,779
回复
评论
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Grit100
Grit100
·
2022-01-02
Ok
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
3,325
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Grit100
Grit100
·
2022-01-01
Ok
EV Stocks Climbed in Morning Trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘交易中上涨</blockquote>
EV stocks climbed in morning trading. Lucid, Nio, Rivian, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Fisker, Nikola, Canoo, and Tusimple climbed between 1% and 3%.
EV Stocks Climbed in Morning Trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘交易中上涨</blockquote>
看
3,440
回复
评论
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Grit100
Grit100
·
2021-12-30
Ok
AMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我 2022 年及未来十年的首选股票</blockquote>
SummaryAMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.The company has c
AMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我 2022 年及未来十年的首选股票</blockquote>
看
3,100
回复
评论
点赞
3
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Grit100
Grit100
·
2021-12-29
Ok
Here’s What Apple Stock Needs To Hit To Be Worth $3 Trillion<blockquote>以下是苹果股票要达到 3 万亿美元的价值需要达到的水平</blockquote>
Apple (AAPL) stock is again back in the spotlight on Tuesday. Not that it’s hard for the tech giant
Here’s What Apple Stock Needs To Hit To Be Worth $3 Trillion<blockquote>以下是苹果股票要达到 3 万亿美元的价值需要达到的水平</blockquote>
看
3,527
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Grit100
Grit100
·
2021-12-28
Ok
Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff<blockquote>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</blockquote>
Summary Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest
Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff<blockquote>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</blockquote>
看
3,491
回复
评论
点赞
3
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Grit100
Grit100
·
2021-12-27
Ok
Moderna faces shareholder pressure over cost of vaccine<blockquote>Moderna 因疫苗成本面临股东压力</blockquote>
Moderna explains why the price is so high given the amount of government-supported pharmaceutical gr
Moderna faces shareholder pressure over cost of vaccine<blockquote>Moderna 因疫苗成本面临股东压力</blockquote>
看
3,977
回复
1
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
加载更多
热议股票
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3581502897038686","uuid":"3581502897038686","gmtCreate":1618422681183,"gmtModify":1618452628421,"name":"Grit100","pinyin":"grit100","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":23,"headSize":2,"tweetSize":223,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.74%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.24","exceedPercentage":"80.19%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":695609535,"gmtCreate":1641434174661,"gmtModify":1641434174934,"author":{"id":"3581502897038686","authorId":"3581502897038686","name":"Grit100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581502897038686","authorIdStr":"3581502897038686"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695609535","repostId":"1127622369","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695139073,"gmtCreate":1641361742990,"gmtModify":1641361743310,"author":{"id":"3581502897038686","authorId":"3581502897038686","name":"Grit100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581502897038686","authorIdStr":"3581502897038686"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695139073","repostId":"2201283498","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695010209,"gmtCreate":1641264802126,"gmtModify":1641264802432,"author":{"id":"3581502897038686","authorId":"3581502897038686","name":"Grit100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581502897038686","authorIdStr":"3581502897038686"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695010209","repostId":"2200886475","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692466322,"gmtCreate":1641176278391,"gmtModify":1641176278728,"author":{"id":"3581502897038686","authorId":"3581502897038686","name":"Grit100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581502897038686","authorIdStr":"3581502897038686"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692466322","repostId":"2200443162","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200443162","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641175843,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2200443162?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-03 10:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"71 years of stock market data reveals investors may be happy in the New Year<blockquote>71年的股市数据显示投资者可能会在新的一年里感到高兴</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200443162","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"After a nearly 29% total return for the S&P 500 this year, history suggests 2022 may see more gains ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After a nearly 29% total return for the S&P 500 this year, history suggests 2022 may see more gains for investors.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>继今年标普500的总回报率接近 29% 之后，历史表明 2022 年投资者可能会获得更多收益。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Truist Advisory Services co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner found that going back to 1950, when the S&P 500 had a total return of at least 25% in a year, stocks usually rose in the following year. The outcome during that 71 year stretch: stocks advanced 82% of the time, or 14 out of 17 instances.</p><p><blockquote>Truist Advisory Services 联席首席投资官 Keith Lerner 发现，追溯到 1950 年，当标普500一年的总回报率至少为 25% 时，股票通常会在第二年上涨。这 71 年的结果是：股市有 82% 的时间上涨，即 17 例中有 14 例上涨。</blockquote></p><p>As the data shows, however, it's not always sunshine and rainbows after a big year for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，数据显示，股市经历了重要的一年后，并不总是阳光和彩虹。</blockquote></p><p>Two of the three years where stocks failed to rise after 25%+ annual gains were 1981 and 1990. Lerner points out both of those periods commenced with recessions. The other down year was 1962, which Lerner says was challenged by a "flash crash" and "deteriorating investor confidence."</p><p><blockquote>1981 年和 1990 年是股市在年涨幅超过 25% 后未能上涨的三年中的两年。勒纳指出，这两个时期都始于衰退。另一个下滑的年份是 1962 年，勒纳表示，这一年受到了“闪电崩盘”和“投资者信心恶化”的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>Lerner doesn't see a recession in the cards for 2022, but acknowledges that it's likely stocks have more modest gains after a banner 2021.</p><p><blockquote>勒纳认为 2022 年不会出现经济衰退，但承认在 2021 年表现强劲之后，股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>"History is only a guide and should be used alongside other factors, such as the business cycle and fundamentals. Still, the studies reviewed on performance following years with robust market gains, strong price momentum, and shallow pullbacks lend further support to our base case outlook for 2022. That is, we still favor stocks and expect the bull market to extend, though at a much more modest pace relative to 2021. The data also suggest investors should anticipate more normal and deeper corrections relative to the unusually shallow pullbacks seen over the past year. Thus, we remain positive yet realistic entering the new year," Lerner explains.</p><p><blockquote>“历史只是一个指南，应与商业周期和基本面等其他因素一起使用。尽管如此，对多年来市场强劲上涨、价格强劲势头和浅层回调后的表现进行的研究，为我们的基本案例展望提供了进一步的支持2022 年。也就是说，我们仍然看好股票，并预计牛市将会延长，尽管相对于 2021 年，牛市的速度要温和得多。这些数据还表明，相对于过去一年异常轻微的回调，投资者应该预计会出现更正常、更深层次的调整。因此，我们在新的一年里保持积极而现实的态度，”勒纳解释道。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2a393125c83e9e71035b9c23133616c\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Another up year for stocks on tap?Truist</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>现货股票又是上涨的一年？特鲁伊斯特</span></p></blockquote></p><p>To be sure, the market enters 2022 with considerable momentum that go a long way to nailing down a positive year ahead.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，市场进入 2022 年时势头强劲，这对于未来一年的积极发展大有帮助。</blockquote></p><p>The S&P 500 notched its 70th record close of the year on Wednesday. As Yahoo Finance's Alexandra Semenova points out, the S&P 500 recorded a new all-time high every month this year. That makes 2021 among the best years ever for investors.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500创下了今年第70个创纪录的收盘纪录。正如雅虎财经的 Alexandra Semenova 指出的那样，今年每个月的标普500都创下历史新高。这使得2021年成为投资者有史以来最好的年份之一。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, well-known companies such as Apple, Home Depot, McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble continue to hover around record highs.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，苹果、家得宝、麦当劳、可口可乐和宝洁等知名公司继续徘徊在历史高位附近。</blockquote></p><p>"We encourage our clients not to get out, to stay in the market. When the recoveries hit, when the sentiment changes, it happens so quickly that often by the time you're able to get back into the market, you have already missed out," said Erin Gibbs, Main Street Asset Management chief investment officer, on Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“我们鼓励客户不要退出，而是留在市场上。当经济复苏来袭时，当市场情绪发生变化时，这种情况发生得如此之快，以至于当你能够重返市场时，你已经错过了，”艾琳·吉布斯 (Erin Gibbs) 说道，Main Street Asset Management 首席投资官在雅虎财经直播上。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>71 years of stock market data reveals investors may be happy in the New Year<blockquote>71年的股市数据显示投资者可能会在新的一年里感到高兴</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n71 years of stock market data reveals investors may be happy in the New Year<blockquote>71年的股市数据显示投资者可能会在新的一年里感到高兴</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-03 10:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After a nearly 29% total return for the S&P 500 this year, history suggests 2022 may see more gains for investors.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>继今年标普500的总回报率接近 29% 之后，历史表明 2022 年投资者可能会获得更多收益。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Truist Advisory Services co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner found that going back to 1950, when the S&P 500 had a total return of at least 25% in a year, stocks usually rose in the following year. The outcome during that 71 year stretch: stocks advanced 82% of the time, or 14 out of 17 instances.</p><p><blockquote>Truist Advisory Services 联席首席投资官 Keith Lerner 发现，追溯到 1950 年，当标普500一年的总回报率至少为 25% 时，股票通常会在第二年上涨。这 71 年的结果是：股市有 82% 的时间上涨，即 17 例中有 14 例上涨。</blockquote></p><p>As the data shows, however, it's not always sunshine and rainbows after a big year for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，数据显示，股市经历了重要的一年后，并不总是阳光和彩虹。</blockquote></p><p>Two of the three years where stocks failed to rise after 25%+ annual gains were 1981 and 1990. Lerner points out both of those periods commenced with recessions. The other down year was 1962, which Lerner says was challenged by a "flash crash" and "deteriorating investor confidence."</p><p><blockquote>1981 年和 1990 年是股市在年涨幅超过 25% 后未能上涨的三年中的两年。勒纳指出，这两个时期都始于衰退。另一个下滑的年份是 1962 年，勒纳表示，这一年受到了“闪电崩盘”和“投资者信心恶化”的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>Lerner doesn't see a recession in the cards for 2022, but acknowledges that it's likely stocks have more modest gains after a banner 2021.</p><p><blockquote>勒纳认为 2022 年不会出现经济衰退，但承认在 2021 年表现强劲之后，股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>"History is only a guide and should be used alongside other factors, such as the business cycle and fundamentals. Still, the studies reviewed on performance following years with robust market gains, strong price momentum, and shallow pullbacks lend further support to our base case outlook for 2022. That is, we still favor stocks and expect the bull market to extend, though at a much more modest pace relative to 2021. The data also suggest investors should anticipate more normal and deeper corrections relative to the unusually shallow pullbacks seen over the past year. Thus, we remain positive yet realistic entering the new year," Lerner explains.</p><p><blockquote>“历史只是一个指南，应与商业周期和基本面等其他因素一起使用。尽管如此，对多年来市场强劲上涨、价格强劲势头和浅层回调后的表现进行的研究，为我们的基本案例展望提供了进一步的支持2022 年。也就是说，我们仍然看好股票，并预计牛市将会延长，尽管相对于 2021 年，牛市的速度要温和得多。这些数据还表明，相对于过去一年异常轻微的回调，投资者应该预计会出现更正常、更深层次的调整。因此，我们在新的一年里保持积极而现实的态度，”勒纳解释道。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2a393125c83e9e71035b9c23133616c\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Another up year for stocks on tap?Truist</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>现货股票又是上涨的一年？特鲁伊斯特</span></p></blockquote></p><p>To be sure, the market enters 2022 with considerable momentum that go a long way to nailing down a positive year ahead.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，市场进入 2022 年时势头强劲，这对于未来一年的积极发展大有帮助。</blockquote></p><p>The S&P 500 notched its 70th record close of the year on Wednesday. As Yahoo Finance's Alexandra Semenova points out, the S&P 500 recorded a new all-time high every month this year. That makes 2021 among the best years ever for investors.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500创下了今年第70个创纪录的收盘纪录。正如雅虎财经的 Alexandra Semenova 指出的那样，今年每个月的标普500都创下历史新高。这使得2021年成为投资者有史以来最好的年份之一。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, well-known companies such as Apple, Home Depot, McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble continue to hover around record highs.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，苹果、家得宝、麦当劳、可口可乐和宝洁等知名公司继续徘徊在历史高位附近。</blockquote></p><p>"We encourage our clients not to get out, to stay in the market. When the recoveries hit, when the sentiment changes, it happens so quickly that often by the time you're able to get back into the market, you have already missed out," said Erin Gibbs, Main Street Asset Management chief investment officer, on Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“我们鼓励客户不要退出，而是留在市场上。当经济复苏来袭时，当市场情绪发生变化时，这种情况发生得如此之快，以至于当你能够重返市场时，你已经错过了，”艾琳·吉布斯 (Erin Gibbs) 说道，Main Street Asset Management 首席投资官在雅虎财经直播上。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/71-years-of-stock-market-data-reveals-investors-may-be-happy-in-the-new-year-173229105.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRCC":"Monroe Capital Corporation",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AAPL":"苹果","MCD":"麦当劳","KO":"可口可乐","NGD":"New Gold",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4017":"黄金",".DJI":"道琼斯","PG":"宝洁","HD":"家得宝"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/71-years-of-stock-market-data-reveals-investors-may-be-happy-in-the-new-year-173229105.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200443162","content_text":"After a nearly 29% total return for the S&P 500 this year, history suggests 2022 may see more gains for investors.Truist Advisory Services co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner found that going back to 1950, when the S&P 500 had a total return of at least 25% in a year, stocks usually rose in the following year. The outcome during that 71 year stretch: stocks advanced 82% of the time, or 14 out of 17 instances.As the data shows, however, it's not always sunshine and rainbows after a big year for stocks.Two of the three years where stocks failed to rise after 25%+ annual gains were 1981 and 1990. Lerner points out both of those periods commenced with recessions. The other down year was 1962, which Lerner says was challenged by a \"flash crash\" and \"deteriorating investor confidence.\"Lerner doesn't see a recession in the cards for 2022, but acknowledges that it's likely stocks have more modest gains after a banner 2021.\"History is only a guide and should be used alongside other factors, such as the business cycle and fundamentals. Still, the studies reviewed on performance following years with robust market gains, strong price momentum, and shallow pullbacks lend further support to our base case outlook for 2022. That is, we still favor stocks and expect the bull market to extend, though at a much more modest pace relative to 2021. The data also suggest investors should anticipate more normal and deeper corrections relative to the unusually shallow pullbacks seen over the past year. Thus, we remain positive yet realistic entering the new year,\" Lerner explains.Another up year for stocks on tap?TruistTo be sure, the market enters 2022 with considerable momentum that go a long way to nailing down a positive year ahead.The S&P 500 notched its 70th record close of the year on Wednesday. As Yahoo Finance's Alexandra Semenova points out, the S&P 500 recorded a new all-time high every month this year. That makes 2021 among the best years ever for investors.Meanwhile, well-known companies such as Apple, Home Depot, McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble continue to hover around record highs.\"We encourage our clients not to get out, to stay in the market. When the recoveries hit, when the sentiment changes, it happens so quickly that often by the time you're able to get back into the market, you have already missed out,\" said Erin Gibbs, Main Street Asset Management chief investment officer, on Yahoo Finance Live.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HD":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"KO":0.6,"MCD":0.6,"MRCC":0.9,"NGD":1,"AAPL":0.6,"PG":0.6,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692555842,"gmtCreate":1641093026709,"gmtModify":1641093027033,"author":{"id":"3581502897038686","authorId":"3581502897038686","name":"Grit100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581502897038686","authorIdStr":"3581502897038686"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692555842","repostId":"2200412074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692507978,"gmtCreate":1641021630851,"gmtModify":1641021631219,"author":{"id":"3581502897038686","authorId":"3581502897038686","name":"Grit100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581502897038686","authorIdStr":"3581502897038686"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692507978","repostId":"1139922858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139922858","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640963323,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1139922858?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-31 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Stocks Climbed in Morning Trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘交易中上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139922858","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks climbed in morning trading. Lucid, Nio, Rivian, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Fisker, Nikola, Canoo, and Tusimple climbed between 1% and 3%.","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>EV stocks climbed in morning trading. Lucid, Nio, Rivian, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Fisker, Nikola, Canoo, and Tusimple climbed between 1% and 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a8a5b51cea78b126f429bba375c881\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中上涨。Lucid、蔚来、Rivian、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、Fisker、Nikola、Canoo 和图森未来的股价上涨了 1% 至 3%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Stocks Climbed in Morning Trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘交易中上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Stocks Climbed in Morning Trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘交易中上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-31 23:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>EV stocks climbed in morning trading. Lucid, Nio, Rivian, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Fisker, Nikola, Canoo, and Tusimple climbed between 1% and 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a8a5b51cea78b126f429bba375c881\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中上涨。Lucid、蔚来、Rivian、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、Fisker、Nikola、Canoo 和图森未来的股价上涨了 1% 至 3%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139922858","content_text":"EV stocks climbed in morning trading. Lucid, Nio, Rivian, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Fisker, Nikola, Canoo, and Tusimple climbed between 1% and 3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692328272,"gmtCreate":1640855304434,"gmtModify":1640855304812,"author":{"id":"3581502897038686","authorId":"3581502897038686","name":"Grit100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581502897038686","authorIdStr":"3581502897038686"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692328272","repostId":"1187913769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187913769","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640853199,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187913769?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 16:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我 2022 年及未来十年的首选股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187913769","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.The company has c","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>AMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.</li><li>The company has captured substantial market share in the CPU segment, and it's not likely to give up gains.</li><li>AMD should continue to deliver significant revenue growth in future years, and the company is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale.</li><li>While AMD's stock could consolidate in the near term, shares are likely to appreciate considerably in the long run.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad09afc88b98d84d101279ec2e71adec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"896\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>vchal/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD在2021年表现出色，2022年应该是又一个伟大的一年。</li><li>该公司在 CPU 领域占据了可观的市场份额，并且不太可能放弃收益。</li><li>AMD 应该会在未来几年继续实现显着的收入增长，并且随着规模的扩大，该公司的盈利能力也越来越强。</li><li>虽然 AMD 的股票可能会在短期内盘整，但从长远来看，其股价可能会大幅升值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vchal/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With a 70% gain over the last year, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has been a top performer in the All-Weather Portfolio. The company has tremendous momentum, and it should continue to increase its market share in the CPU segment moving forward. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing substantial revenue growth from the chipmaker in future quarters. Moreover, AMD is growing more profitable and should continue expanding EPS in the coming years. The company's stock price should have another solid year in 2022. Moreover, AMD's perpetual growth and increasing profitability should enable the company's stock to advance notably higher in future years.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 股票在去年上涨了 70%，是全天候投资组合中表现最好的股票。该公司拥有巨大的发展势头，未来应该会继续增加其在 CPU 领域的市场份额。因此，我们可能会在未来几个季度继续看到这家芯片制造商的收入大幅增长。此外，AMD 的盈利能力正在增长，并且应该在未来几年继续扩大每股收益。该公司的股价在 2022 年应该会再次表现强劲。此外，AMD 的持续增长和不断增长的盈利能力应该会使该公司的股价在未来几年大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p><b>AMD 3-Year Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD 3 年图表</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd855019964cf634f5c9c7817fb458b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：StockCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that AMD has been on a steady march higher for several years now. The stock has made about a 750% move in just the last three years, making it one of the top-performing large-cap tech stocks on Wall Street in recent years. While shares became technically overbought during the recent run-up, we should see more upside from AMD after a consolidation phase early next year. I also believe that any substantial pullbacks in AMD should be regarded as buying opportunities if they occur in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>我们看到 AMD 几年来一直在稳步走高。该股在过去三年中上涨了约 750%，成为近年来华尔街表现最好的大型科技股之一。虽然股票在技术上在最近的上涨中变得超买，但在明年初的盘整阶段之后，我们应该会看到 AMD 的更多上涨空间。我还认为，如果 AMD 在未来几个月内出现任何大幅回调，都应被视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Why AMD Continues To Surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 AMD 持续飙升</b></blockquote></p><p>AMD's CPU market share hit a 15-year high recently, as the company's market share continues to climb in the ultra-competitive x86 market. Now, every AMD gain is essentially an Intel (INTC) loss here, and it has been all about AMD lately.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的CPU市场份额最近创下了15年来的新高，因为该公司在竞争异常激烈的x86市场的市场份额继续攀升。现在，AMD的每一个收益本质上都是英特尔（INTC）的损失，最近都是关于AMD的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6026105f7bf4779407e601f570ccedd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We've seen AMD's total CPU market share increase substantially in recent years. The company's market share has surged from a low of about 20% in 2015-2018 to roughly 40% recently. While we saw a higher market share in the mid-2000s, I don't believe that AMD's recent rise will be transitory like 15 years ago. AMD is much more established and far better capitalized now. Moreover, the company's execution, performance, and chip technology have topped Intel's in recent years. Therefore, it's not surprising to see market share gains and extreme stock outperformance over Intel lately.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们看到 AMD 的总 CPU 市场份额大幅增长。该公司的市场份额已从2015-2018年约20%的低点飙升至近期的约40%。虽然我们在2000年代中期看到了更高的市场份额，但我不认为AMD最近的崛起会像15年前那样是暂时的。AMD 现在更加成熟，资本也更加雄厚。此外，该公司的执行、性能和芯片技术近年来都超过了英特尔。因此，最近市场份额上涨和股票表现优于英特尔也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76d30db882342612fa2b942da319232d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>If we look at the desktop market where a lot of the gaming occurs, AMD briefly overtook Intel this year, crossing the 50% market share line for the first time since 2006. AMD has seen a rapid rise in this segment from the company's 20%-25% share about five years ago. Due to AMD's strong momentum and solid product line, the chipmaker could continue to capture more share in the desktop market in future years. Given the company's trajectory, AMD has a substantial probability of becoming the leader in the desktop CPU segment, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看大量游戏发生的台式机市场，AMD今年短暂超过了英特尔，自2006年以来首次突破50%的市场份额线。AMD 在这一领域的份额从大约五年前的 20%-25% 迅速上升。由于AMD强劲的势头和坚实的产品线，这家芯片制造商可能会在未来几年继续在台式机市场占据更多份额。在我看来，鉴于该公司的发展轨迹，AMD 很有可能成为台式机 CPU 领域的领导者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82437416408bf193bb7e638a750c90f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The critical battleground remains the laptop market, where AMD's market share was down to only around 8% in recent years. However, the company has recently made significant advances capturing nearly 25% of this lucrative market. The move away from cheaper, low-performance devices has helped AMD in this segment. Moreover, the trend toward higher-end performance laptops should enable AMD to retain a larger share of the laptop market in future years. Furthermore, AMD's robust momentum should allow the company to continue innovating, allowing it to grow its market share from here.</p><p><blockquote>关键的战场仍然是笔记本电脑市场，近年来AMD在该市场的市场份额已降至仅8%左右。然而，该公司最近取得了重大进展，占领了这个利润丰厚的市场近 25% 的份额。放弃更便宜、低性能设备有助于 AMD 在这一领域的发展。此外，高端性能笔记本电脑的趋势应该会让AMD在未来几年保持更大的笔记本电脑市场份额。此外，AMD 的强劲势头应该会让该公司继续创新，从而扩大市场份额。</blockquote></p><p><b>AMD vs. Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD 与英特尔</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc483b40eae241e17cc4061f03271595\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In recent years, we see AMD's dramatic outperformance over Intel, and the stock's trajectory correlates closely with AMD's continued market share gains in the CPU market. However, even if the company's market share gain slows down or stagnates in the future, I don't believe that AMD's stock will crash. AMD has an established place in the market now. The company's growth should continue, and even if the stock moves sideways or slightly lower in the near-term, intermediate and longer-term gains should follow.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们看到 AMD 的表现明显优于英特尔，该股的走势与 AMD 在 CPU 市场的市场份额持续增长密切相关。不过，即便未来该公司的市场份额增长放缓或停滞，我也不相信AMD的股票会暴跌。AMD现在在市场上已经占有一席之地。该公司的增长应该会继续下去，即使股票在短期内横盘或小幅走低，中期和长期的收益也应该会随之而来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation May Seem High But The Growth Is Worth It</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值可能看起来很高，但增长是值得的</b></blockquote></p><p>AMD's consensus EPS forecasts are $3.13 in its next four quarters. This figure puts AMD's forward P/E ratio at approximately 49. While 49 times forward EPS estimates may seem high, AMD has the growth to support such a multiple.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 对未来四个季度每股收益的普遍预测为 3.13 美元。这一数字使 AMD 的远期市盈率约为 49。虽然 49 倍的预期每股收益可能看起来很高，但 AMD 的增长足以支持这样的倍数。</blockquote></p><p><b>EPS Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每股收益估计</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ecee7246de09d54f8431a28932f5ca7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Most analysts anticipate AMD will deliver robust double-digit EPS growth for at least several more years moving forward. Consensus EPS estimates are $3.99 in 2023, roughly a 50% rise over this year's anticipated $2.64 result. Moreover, AMD has illustrated a tenacity for surpassing analysts' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>大多数分析师预计，AMD 将在未来至少几年内实现强劲的两位数每股收益增长。普遍预期 2023 年每股收益为 3.99 美元，比今年预期的 2.64 美元增长约 50%。此外，AMD 还表现出了超越分析师预期的韧性。</blockquote></p><p><b>EPS Surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EPS惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfbefd1757816f8103ba2609c1148c8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>AMD has surpassed consensus estimates in seven of its last eight quarters. The company has beat forecasts by an average of 14% in its previous four quarters. Therefore, I anticipate that we will see more outperformance moving forward. Even if AMD beats consensus EPS estimates by an average of only 10% in 2023, the company will deliver about $4.40. This EPS figure implies that AMD is trading at around 35 times 2023 EPS estimates right now. However, due to the company's powerful momentum, robust growth should continue well beyond 2023.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 在过去八个季度中有七个季度超过了市场普遍预期。该公司前四个季度的业绩平均超出预期 14%。因此，我预计未来我们将看到更多优异的表现。即使 AMD 2023 年的每股收益平均仅比普遍预期高出 10%，该公司的收益也将约为 4.40 美元。该每股收益数据意味着 AMD 目前的交易价格约为 2023 年每股收益预期的 35 倍。然而，由于该公司的强劲势头，强劲增长应该会持续到 2023 年之后。</blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入估计</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94249d68f94c71b809df65a4d17238cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that double-digit revenue growth should continue at AMD, and this trend of solid revenue growth is likely to persist well beyond 2023. While consensus estimates are $22 billion in 2023, higher-end forecasts imply that the company can deliver north of $24 billion. These are explosive figures provided that AMD reported Q3 2020 revenues of $2.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 AMD 的两位数收入增长应该会继续，而且这种稳健的收入增长趋势可能会持续到 2023 年之后。虽然普遍估计 2023 年的销售额为 220 亿美元，但高端预测意味着该公司的销售额将超过 240 亿美元。考虑到 AMD 报告 2020 年第三季度收入为 28 亿美元，这些都是爆炸性的数字。</blockquote></p><p><b>Q3 2021 Financial Information</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021 年第三季度财务信息</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b112287e77c3985b0453387ea223cc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: AMD.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that AMD's revenues surged by a whopping 54% YoY in the company's latest earnings report. While next year's Q3 consensus estimates are for an 18% YoY increase, I suspect that AMD can surprise higher, delivering revenue growth north of 20%. In addition to the company's substantial sales growth, AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable. Last quarter we saw gross profit explode to more than $2 billion, a 70% YoY increase. Moreover, gross profit margin increased substantially from 44% in Q3 2020 to 48% last quarter. Net income skyrocketed by 137% from $390 million to $923 million for the same time frame. We can see that AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale, and we will likely continue to see high profitability growth from AMD as the company advances.</p><p><blockquote>我们在该公司最新的收益报告中看到，AMD 的收入同比增长了 54%。虽然明年第三季度的普遍预期是同比增长18%，但我怀疑AMD可能会出人意料地更高，实现20%以上的收入增长。除了公司销售额的大幅增长外，AMD 的盈利能力也越来越强。上季度毛利润飙升至 20 亿美元以上，同比增长 70%。此外，毛利率从2020年第三季度的44%大幅增长至上一季度的48%。同期净利润从 3.9 亿美元飙升至 9.23 亿美元，增长了 137%。我们可以看到，随着规模的扩大，AMD 的盈利能力越来越强，随着公司的发展，我们可能会继续看到 AMD 的高盈利能力增长。</blockquote></p><p><b>Here is what AMD's financials could look like in future years:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是 AMD 未来几年的财务状况：</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd1ed829c5e52bdad466de22b5e8969\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"407\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者资料</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p>I expect AMD will continue to expand sales at 15%-20% annually through 2025, after which the company's revenue growth should slow into the 8%-10% range toward the end of the decade. However, AMD's EPS should be considerably higher by this time, roughly $15-$20. Therefore, even a substantially lower P/E multiple should provide us with a stock price much higher than we see today. If AMD continues to execute well in the coming years, I expect the company's share price to appreciate to about $500 by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>我预计到 2025 年，AMD 将继续以每年 15%-20% 的速度扩张销售额，之后该公司的收入增长应该会在本十年末放缓至 8%-10% 的范围。然而，此时 AMD 的每股收益应该会高得多，大约 15-20 美元。因此，即使市盈率大幅降低，我们的股价也应该比今天高得多。如果 AMD 在未来几年继续表现良好，我预计到 2030 年该公司的股价将升值至 500 美元左右。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks To AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite my bullish outlook for the company, investors must remain aware that risks exist. AMD has a relatively high multiple, and some consider the stock overvalued right now. Therefore, market volatility and further deflation of high multiple stocks could impact AMD's stock price. Moreover, Intel could bounce back, and the company could begin taking back some of its lost market share. In such a scenario, we could see AMD's share of the CPU market decline along with the company's share price. AMD remains an elevated risk/reward investment and may not be suitable for conservative investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我对公司的前景持乐观态度，但投资者必须意识到风险的存在。AMD 的市盈率相对较高，一些人认为该股目前被高估。因此，市场波动和高倍数股票的进一步通货紧缩可能会影响AMD的股价。此外，英特尔可能会反弹，该公司可能会开始夺回部分失去的市场份额。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到 AMD 在 CPU 市场的份额随着公司股价的下降而下降。AMD 仍然是一项高风险/回报投资，可能不适合保守的投资者。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我 2022 年及未来十年的首选股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我 2022 年及未来十年的首选股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 16:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>AMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.</li><li>The company has captured substantial market share in the CPU segment, and it's not likely to give up gains.</li><li>AMD should continue to deliver significant revenue growth in future years, and the company is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale.</li><li>While AMD's stock could consolidate in the near term, shares are likely to appreciate considerably in the long run.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad09afc88b98d84d101279ec2e71adec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"896\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>vchal/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD在2021年表现出色，2022年应该是又一个伟大的一年。</li><li>该公司在 CPU 领域占据了可观的市场份额，并且不太可能放弃收益。</li><li>AMD 应该会在未来几年继续实现显着的收入增长，并且随着规模的扩大，该公司的盈利能力也越来越强。</li><li>虽然 AMD 的股票可能会在短期内盘整，但从长远来看，其股价可能会大幅升值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vchal/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With a 70% gain over the last year, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has been a top performer in the All-Weather Portfolio. The company has tremendous momentum, and it should continue to increase its market share in the CPU segment moving forward. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing substantial revenue growth from the chipmaker in future quarters. Moreover, AMD is growing more profitable and should continue expanding EPS in the coming years. The company's stock price should have another solid year in 2022. Moreover, AMD's perpetual growth and increasing profitability should enable the company's stock to advance notably higher in future years.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 股票在去年上涨了 70%，是全天候投资组合中表现最好的股票。该公司拥有巨大的发展势头，未来应该会继续增加其在 CPU 领域的市场份额。因此，我们可能会在未来几个季度继续看到这家芯片制造商的收入大幅增长。此外，AMD 的盈利能力正在增长，并且应该在未来几年继续扩大每股收益。该公司的股价在 2022 年应该会再次表现强劲。此外，AMD 的持续增长和不断增长的盈利能力应该会使该公司的股价在未来几年大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p><b>AMD 3-Year Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD 3 年图表</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd855019964cf634f5c9c7817fb458b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：StockCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that AMD has been on a steady march higher for several years now. The stock has made about a 750% move in just the last three years, making it one of the top-performing large-cap tech stocks on Wall Street in recent years. While shares became technically overbought during the recent run-up, we should see more upside from AMD after a consolidation phase early next year. I also believe that any substantial pullbacks in AMD should be regarded as buying opportunities if they occur in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>我们看到 AMD 几年来一直在稳步走高。该股在过去三年中上涨了约 750%，成为近年来华尔街表现最好的大型科技股之一。虽然股票在技术上在最近的上涨中变得超买，但在明年初的盘整阶段之后，我们应该会看到 AMD 的更多上涨空间。我还认为，如果 AMD 在未来几个月内出现任何大幅回调，都应被视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Why AMD Continues To Surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 AMD 持续飙升</b></blockquote></p><p>AMD's CPU market share hit a 15-year high recently, as the company's market share continues to climb in the ultra-competitive x86 market. Now, every AMD gain is essentially an Intel (INTC) loss here, and it has been all about AMD lately.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的CPU市场份额最近创下了15年来的新高，因为该公司在竞争异常激烈的x86市场的市场份额继续攀升。现在，AMD的每一个收益本质上都是英特尔（INTC）的损失，最近都是关于AMD的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6026105f7bf4779407e601f570ccedd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We've seen AMD's total CPU market share increase substantially in recent years. The company's market share has surged from a low of about 20% in 2015-2018 to roughly 40% recently. While we saw a higher market share in the mid-2000s, I don't believe that AMD's recent rise will be transitory like 15 years ago. AMD is much more established and far better capitalized now. Moreover, the company's execution, performance, and chip technology have topped Intel's in recent years. Therefore, it's not surprising to see market share gains and extreme stock outperformance over Intel lately.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们看到 AMD 的总 CPU 市场份额大幅增长。该公司的市场份额已从2015-2018年约20%的低点飙升至近期的约40%。虽然我们在2000年代中期看到了更高的市场份额，但我不认为AMD最近的崛起会像15年前那样是暂时的。AMD 现在更加成熟，资本也更加雄厚。此外，该公司的执行、性能和芯片技术近年来都超过了英特尔。因此，最近市场份额上涨和股票表现优于英特尔也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76d30db882342612fa2b942da319232d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>If we look at the desktop market where a lot of the gaming occurs, AMD briefly overtook Intel this year, crossing the 50% market share line for the first time since 2006. AMD has seen a rapid rise in this segment from the company's 20%-25% share about five years ago. Due to AMD's strong momentum and solid product line, the chipmaker could continue to capture more share in the desktop market in future years. Given the company's trajectory, AMD has a substantial probability of becoming the leader in the desktop CPU segment, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看大量游戏发生的台式机市场，AMD今年短暂超过了英特尔，自2006年以来首次突破50%的市场份额线。AMD 在这一领域的份额从大约五年前的 20%-25% 迅速上升。由于AMD强劲的势头和坚实的产品线，这家芯片制造商可能会在未来几年继续在台式机市场占据更多份额。在我看来，鉴于该公司的发展轨迹，AMD 很有可能成为台式机 CPU 领域的领导者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82437416408bf193bb7e638a750c90f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The critical battleground remains the laptop market, where AMD's market share was down to only around 8% in recent years. However, the company has recently made significant advances capturing nearly 25% of this lucrative market. The move away from cheaper, low-performance devices has helped AMD in this segment. Moreover, the trend toward higher-end performance laptops should enable AMD to retain a larger share of the laptop market in future years. Furthermore, AMD's robust momentum should allow the company to continue innovating, allowing it to grow its market share from here.</p><p><blockquote>关键的战场仍然是笔记本电脑市场，近年来AMD在该市场的市场份额已降至仅8%左右。然而，该公司最近取得了重大进展，占领了这个利润丰厚的市场近 25% 的份额。放弃更便宜、低性能设备有助于 AMD 在这一领域的发展。此外，高端性能笔记本电脑的趋势应该会让AMD在未来几年保持更大的笔记本电脑市场份额。此外，AMD 的强劲势头应该会让该公司继续创新，从而扩大市场份额。</blockquote></p><p><b>AMD vs. Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD 与英特尔</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc483b40eae241e17cc4061f03271595\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In recent years, we see AMD's dramatic outperformance over Intel, and the stock's trajectory correlates closely with AMD's continued market share gains in the CPU market. However, even if the company's market share gain slows down or stagnates in the future, I don't believe that AMD's stock will crash. AMD has an established place in the market now. The company's growth should continue, and even if the stock moves sideways or slightly lower in the near-term, intermediate and longer-term gains should follow.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们看到 AMD 的表现明显优于英特尔，该股的走势与 AMD 在 CPU 市场的市场份额持续增长密切相关。不过，即便未来该公司的市场份额增长放缓或停滞，我也不相信AMD的股票会暴跌。AMD现在在市场上已经占有一席之地。该公司的增长应该会继续下去，即使股票在短期内横盘或小幅走低，中期和长期的收益也应该会随之而来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation May Seem High But The Growth Is Worth It</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值可能看起来很高，但增长是值得的</b></blockquote></p><p>AMD's consensus EPS forecasts are $3.13 in its next four quarters. This figure puts AMD's forward P/E ratio at approximately 49. While 49 times forward EPS estimates may seem high, AMD has the growth to support such a multiple.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 对未来四个季度每股收益的普遍预测为 3.13 美元。这一数字使 AMD 的远期市盈率约为 49。虽然 49 倍的预期每股收益可能看起来很高，但 AMD 的增长足以支持这样的倍数。</blockquote></p><p><b>EPS Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每股收益估计</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ecee7246de09d54f8431a28932f5ca7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Most analysts anticipate AMD will deliver robust double-digit EPS growth for at least several more years moving forward. Consensus EPS estimates are $3.99 in 2023, roughly a 50% rise over this year's anticipated $2.64 result. Moreover, AMD has illustrated a tenacity for surpassing analysts' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>大多数分析师预计，AMD 将在未来至少几年内实现强劲的两位数每股收益增长。普遍预期 2023 年每股收益为 3.99 美元，比今年预期的 2.64 美元增长约 50%。此外，AMD 还表现出了超越分析师预期的韧性。</blockquote></p><p><b>EPS Surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EPS惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfbefd1757816f8103ba2609c1148c8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>AMD has surpassed consensus estimates in seven of its last eight quarters. The company has beat forecasts by an average of 14% in its previous four quarters. Therefore, I anticipate that we will see more outperformance moving forward. Even if AMD beats consensus EPS estimates by an average of only 10% in 2023, the company will deliver about $4.40. This EPS figure implies that AMD is trading at around 35 times 2023 EPS estimates right now. However, due to the company's powerful momentum, robust growth should continue well beyond 2023.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 在过去八个季度中有七个季度超过了市场普遍预期。该公司前四个季度的业绩平均超出预期 14%。因此，我预计未来我们将看到更多优异的表现。即使 AMD 2023 年的每股收益平均仅比普遍预期高出 10%，该公司的收益也将约为 4.40 美元。该每股收益数据意味着 AMD 目前的交易价格约为 2023 年每股收益预期的 35 倍。然而，由于该公司的强劲势头，强劲增长应该会持续到 2023 年之后。</blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入估计</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94249d68f94c71b809df65a4d17238cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that double-digit revenue growth should continue at AMD, and this trend of solid revenue growth is likely to persist well beyond 2023. While consensus estimates are $22 billion in 2023, higher-end forecasts imply that the company can deliver north of $24 billion. These are explosive figures provided that AMD reported Q3 2020 revenues of $2.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 AMD 的两位数收入增长应该会继续，而且这种稳健的收入增长趋势可能会持续到 2023 年之后。虽然普遍估计 2023 年的销售额为 220 亿美元，但高端预测意味着该公司的销售额将超过 240 亿美元。考虑到 AMD 报告 2020 年第三季度收入为 28 亿美元，这些都是爆炸性的数字。</blockquote></p><p><b>Q3 2021 Financial Information</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021 年第三季度财务信息</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b112287e77c3985b0453387ea223cc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: AMD.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that AMD's revenues surged by a whopping 54% YoY in the company's latest earnings report. While next year's Q3 consensus estimates are for an 18% YoY increase, I suspect that AMD can surprise higher, delivering revenue growth north of 20%. In addition to the company's substantial sales growth, AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable. Last quarter we saw gross profit explode to more than $2 billion, a 70% YoY increase. Moreover, gross profit margin increased substantially from 44% in Q3 2020 to 48% last quarter. Net income skyrocketed by 137% from $390 million to $923 million for the same time frame. We can see that AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale, and we will likely continue to see high profitability growth from AMD as the company advances.</p><p><blockquote>我们在该公司最新的收益报告中看到，AMD 的收入同比增长了 54%。虽然明年第三季度的普遍预期是同比增长18%，但我怀疑AMD可能会出人意料地更高，实现20%以上的收入增长。除了公司销售额的大幅增长外，AMD 的盈利能力也越来越强。上季度毛利润飙升至 20 亿美元以上，同比增长 70%。此外，毛利率从2020年第三季度的44%大幅增长至上一季度的48%。同期净利润从 3.9 亿美元飙升至 9.23 亿美元，增长了 137%。我们可以看到，随着规模的扩大，AMD 的盈利能力越来越强，随着公司的发展，我们可能会继续看到 AMD 的高盈利能力增长。</blockquote></p><p><b>Here is what AMD's financials could look like in future years:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是 AMD 未来几年的财务状况：</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd1ed829c5e52bdad466de22b5e8969\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"407\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者资料</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p>I expect AMD will continue to expand sales at 15%-20% annually through 2025, after which the company's revenue growth should slow into the 8%-10% range toward the end of the decade. However, AMD's EPS should be considerably higher by this time, roughly $15-$20. Therefore, even a substantially lower P/E multiple should provide us with a stock price much higher than we see today. If AMD continues to execute well in the coming years, I expect the company's share price to appreciate to about $500 by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>我预计到 2025 年，AMD 将继续以每年 15%-20% 的速度扩张销售额，之后该公司的收入增长应该会在本十年末放缓至 8%-10% 的范围。然而，此时 AMD 的每股收益应该会高得多，大约 15-20 美元。因此，即使市盈率大幅降低，我们的股价也应该比今天高得多。如果 AMD 在未来几年继续表现良好，我预计到 2030 年该公司的股价将升值至 500 美元左右。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks To AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite my bullish outlook for the company, investors must remain aware that risks exist. AMD has a relatively high multiple, and some consider the stock overvalued right now. Therefore, market volatility and further deflation of high multiple stocks could impact AMD's stock price. Moreover, Intel could bounce back, and the company could begin taking back some of its lost market share. In such a scenario, we could see AMD's share of the CPU market decline along with the company's share price. AMD remains an elevated risk/reward investment and may not be suitable for conservative investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我对公司的前景持乐观态度，但投资者必须意识到风险的存在。AMD 的市盈率相对较高，一些人认为该股目前被高估。因此，市场波动和高倍数股票的进一步通货紧缩可能会影响AMD的股价。此外，英特尔可能会反弹，该公司可能会开始夺回部分失去的市场份额。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到 AMD 在 CPU 市场的份额随着公司股价的下降而下降。AMD 仍然是一项高风险/回报投资，可能不适合保守的投资者。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477197-amd-my-top-pick-for-2022-and-the-next-decade\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477197-amd-my-top-pick-for-2022-and-the-next-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187913769","content_text":"SummaryAMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.The company has captured substantial market share in the CPU segment, and it's not likely to give up gains.AMD should continue to deliver significant revenue growth in future years, and the company is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale.While AMD's stock could consolidate in the near term, shares are likely to appreciate considerably in the long run.vchal/iStock via Getty ImagesWith a 70% gain over the last year, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has been a top performer in the All-Weather Portfolio. The company has tremendous momentum, and it should continue to increase its market share in the CPU segment moving forward. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing substantial revenue growth from the chipmaker in future quarters. Moreover, AMD is growing more profitable and should continue expanding EPS in the coming years. The company's stock price should have another solid year in 2022. Moreover, AMD's perpetual growth and increasing profitability should enable the company's stock to advance notably higher in future years.AMD 3-Year ChartSource: StockCharts.comWe see that AMD has been on a steady march higher for several years now. The stock has made about a 750% move in just the last three years, making it one of the top-performing large-cap tech stocks on Wall Street in recent years. While shares became technically overbought during the recent run-up, we should see more upside from AMD after a consolidation phase early next year. I also believe that any substantial pullbacks in AMD should be regarded as buying opportunities if they occur in the next few months.Why AMD Continues To SurgeAMD's CPU market share hit a 15-year high recently, as the company's market share continues to climb in the ultra-competitive x86 market. Now, every AMD gain is essentially an Intel (INTC) loss here, and it has been all about AMD lately.Source: cpubenchmark.netWe've seen AMD's total CPU market share increase substantially in recent years. The company's market share has surged from a low of about 20% in 2015-2018 to roughly 40% recently. While we saw a higher market share in the mid-2000s, I don't believe that AMD's recent rise will be transitory like 15 years ago. AMD is much more established and far better capitalized now. Moreover, the company's execution, performance, and chip technology have topped Intel's in recent years. Therefore, it's not surprising to see market share gains and extreme stock outperformance over Intel lately.Source: cpubenchmark.netIf we look at the desktop market where a lot of the gaming occurs, AMD briefly overtook Intel this year, crossing the 50% market share line for the first time since 2006. AMD has seen a rapid rise in this segment from the company's 20%-25% share about five years ago. Due to AMD's strong momentum and solid product line, the chipmaker could continue to capture more share in the desktop market in future years. Given the company's trajectory, AMD has a substantial probability of becoming the leader in the desktop CPU segment, in my view.Source: cpubenchmark.netThe critical battleground remains the laptop market, where AMD's market share was down to only around 8% in recent years. However, the company has recently made significant advances capturing nearly 25% of this lucrative market. The move away from cheaper, low-performance devices has helped AMD in this segment. Moreover, the trend toward higher-end performance laptops should enable AMD to retain a larger share of the laptop market in future years. Furthermore, AMD's robust momentum should allow the company to continue innovating, allowing it to grow its market share from here.AMD vs. IntelData by YChartsIn recent years, we see AMD's dramatic outperformance over Intel, and the stock's trajectory correlates closely with AMD's continued market share gains in the CPU market. However, even if the company's market share gain slows down or stagnates in the future, I don't believe that AMD's stock will crash. AMD has an established place in the market now. The company's growth should continue, and even if the stock moves sideways or slightly lower in the near-term, intermediate and longer-term gains should follow.Valuation May Seem High But The Growth Is Worth ItAMD's consensus EPS forecasts are $3.13 in its next four quarters. This figure puts AMD's forward P/E ratio at approximately 49. While 49 times forward EPS estimates may seem high, AMD has the growth to support such a multiple.EPS EstimatesSource: SeekingAlpha.comMost analysts anticipate AMD will deliver robust double-digit EPS growth for at least several more years moving forward. Consensus EPS estimates are $3.99 in 2023, roughly a 50% rise over this year's anticipated $2.64 result. Moreover, AMD has illustrated a tenacity for surpassing analysts' expectations.EPS SurprisesSource: SeekingAlpha.comAMD has surpassed consensus estimates in seven of its last eight quarters. The company has beat forecasts by an average of 14% in its previous four quarters. Therefore, I anticipate that we will see more outperformance moving forward. Even if AMD beats consensus EPS estimates by an average of only 10% in 2023, the company will deliver about $4.40. This EPS figure implies that AMD is trading at around 35 times 2023 EPS estimates right now. However, due to the company's powerful momentum, robust growth should continue well beyond 2023.Revenue EstimatesSource: SeekingAlpha.comWe see that double-digit revenue growth should continue at AMD, and this trend of solid revenue growth is likely to persist well beyond 2023. While consensus estimates are $22 billion in 2023, higher-end forecasts imply that the company can deliver north of $24 billion. These are explosive figures provided that AMD reported Q3 2020 revenues of $2.8 billion.Q3 2021 Financial InformationSource: AMD.comWe see that AMD's revenues surged by a whopping 54% YoY in the company's latest earnings report. While next year's Q3 consensus estimates are for an 18% YoY increase, I suspect that AMD can surprise higher, delivering revenue growth north of 20%. In addition to the company's substantial sales growth, AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable. Last quarter we saw gross profit explode to more than $2 billion, a 70% YoY increase. Moreover, gross profit margin increased substantially from 44% in Q3 2020 to 48% last quarter. Net income skyrocketed by 137% from $390 million to $923 million for the same time frame. We can see that AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale, and we will likely continue to see high profitability growth from AMD as the company advances.Here is what AMD's financials could look like in future years:Source: Author's MaterialThe Bottom LineI expect AMD will continue to expand sales at 15%-20% annually through 2025, after which the company's revenue growth should slow into the 8%-10% range toward the end of the decade. However, AMD's EPS should be considerably higher by this time, roughly $15-$20. Therefore, even a substantially lower P/E multiple should provide us with a stock price much higher than we see today. If AMD continues to execute well in the coming years, I expect the company's share price to appreciate to about $500 by 2030.Risks To AMDDespite my bullish outlook for the company, investors must remain aware that risks exist. AMD has a relatively high multiple, and some consider the stock overvalued right now. Therefore, market volatility and further deflation of high multiple stocks could impact AMD's stock price. Moreover, Intel could bounce back, and the company could begin taking back some of its lost market share. In such a scenario, we could see AMD's share of the CPU market decline along with the company's share price. AMD remains an elevated risk/reward investment and may not be suitable for conservative investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696443164,"gmtCreate":1640755506156,"gmtModify":1640755539346,"author":{"id":"3581502897038686","authorId":"3581502897038686","name":"Grit100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581502897038686","authorIdStr":"3581502897038686"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696443164","repostId":"1169856412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169856412","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640748590,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169856412?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-29 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What Apple Stock Needs To Hit To Be Worth $3 Trillion<blockquote>以下是苹果股票要达到 3 万亿美元的价值需要达到的水平</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169856412","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple (AAPL) stock is again back in the spotlight on Tuesday.\nNot that it’s hard for the tech giant ","content":"<p>Apple (<b>AAPL</b>) stock is again back in the spotlight on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（<b>苹果</b>) 周二，股票再次成为焦点。</blockquote></p><p> Not that it’s hard for the tech giant to find itself there, but it comes as the stock makes another push back to the $3 trillion market cap level.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说这家科技巨头很难跻身这一行列，但正值该股再次回到 3 万亿美元市值水平之际。</blockquote></p><p> To get there, Apple stock needs to climb to roughly $182.85 — let’s just call it $183.</p><p><blockquote>要实现这一目标，苹果股价需要攀升至 182.85 美元左右，看涨期权为 183 美元。</blockquote></p><p> What’s been difficult is that the $180 area has become an area of resistance.</p><p><blockquote>困难的是，180 美元区域已成为阻力区域。</blockquote></p><p> We have actually been pretty fortunate when it comes to trading Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>在交易苹果股票方面，我们实际上相当幸运。</blockquote></p><p> On its first push to the $3 trillion level, we were selling the news and looking for a bearish reversal.</p><p><blockquote>在首次突破 3 万亿美元水平时，我们正在抛售消息并寻找看跌反转。</blockquote></p><p> That worked out as Apple corrected lower. However, that set up a pretty sweet bounce play that has been paying traders pretty well over the past few days.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果修正走低，这种情况得到了解决。然而，这创造了一个相当甜蜜的反弹游戏，在过去几天里给交易者带来了相当高的回报。</blockquote></p><p> At the risk of over-saturating our Apple discussion, how do the charts look now as it makes another push back up toward this key zone?</p><p><blockquote>冒着让我们的苹果讨论过度饱和的风险，当它再次向这个关键区域推进时，图表现在看起来如何？</blockquote></p><p> Trading Apple Stock</p><p><blockquote>交易苹果股票</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29cb7696d6e38eacaddae770a857ff3d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"741\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Daily chart of Apple stock.Chart courtesy of TrendSpider.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果股票日线图。图表由 TrendSpider.com 提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple’s powerful bounce off the 21-day moving average and rotation up through the 10-day has given the stock new life.</p><p><blockquote>苹果从 21 日移动平均线强劲反弹，并在 10 日移动平均线中向上轮动，赋予了该股新的生命。</blockquote></p><p> However, this $180 zone has been tricky thus far. One will notice how the stock tested up into this area on Tuesday and then struggled.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到目前为止，180 美元区域一直很棘手。人们会注意到该股周二如何测试这一区域，然后陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not unlike what we’re seeing with Meta (<b>MVRS</b>), although admittedly, the stock is not trading at all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们在 Meta 上看到的情况并无二致（<b>MVRS</b>），尽管不可否认的是，该股的交易价格并没有达到历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> From here, bulls want to see a push up through the all-time high, at $182.13. That opens the door directly to the $3 trillion market cap level — at $182.85-ish — and more new highs.</p><p><blockquote>从这里开始，多头希望看到突破182.13美元的历史高点。这直接打开了通往 3 万亿美元市值水平（约 182.85 美元）和更多新高的大门。</blockquote></p><p> The flip side of that scenario is that the $180 area holds as resistance.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况的另一面是 180 美元区域仍然是阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> In that case, I want to see the 10-day moving average hold as support on the pullback. A break of this level puts the 21-day moving average back in play again, but it would be much healthier for the former to hold as support and for the latter to not be tested.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我希望看到 10 日移动平均线作为回调的支撑。突破这一水平将使 21 日移动平均线再次发挥作用，但前者作为支撑而后者不接受测试会更健康。</blockquote></p><p> In either scenario — the breakout or the pullback — investors will ultimately be looking for $3 trillion and new all-time highs eventually.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种情况——突破还是回调——投资者最终都将寻求 3 万亿美元和历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <i>When</i> Apple gets there — not if — it will have longer-term bulls sniffing for the $188 to $194 area, where the stock finds multiple upside extension levels.</p><p><blockquote><i>何时</i>苹果到达那里——如果——它将有长期多头嗅探 188 美元至 194 美元区域，该股在该区域找到多个上行延伸水平。</blockquote></p><p> Above $195 and the obvious is in play: $200.</p><p><blockquote>超过195美元，显而易见的是：200美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What Apple Stock Needs To Hit To Be Worth $3 Trillion<blockquote>以下是苹果股票要达到 3 万亿美元的价值需要达到的水平</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What Apple Stock Needs To Hit To Be Worth $3 Trillion<blockquote>以下是苹果股票要达到 3 万亿美元的价值需要达到的水平</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-29 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple (<b>AAPL</b>) stock is again back in the spotlight on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（<b>苹果</b>) 周二，股票再次成为焦点。</blockquote></p><p> Not that it’s hard for the tech giant to find itself there, but it comes as the stock makes another push back to the $3 trillion market cap level.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说这家科技巨头很难跻身这一行列，但正值该股再次回到 3 万亿美元市值水平之际。</blockquote></p><p> To get there, Apple stock needs to climb to roughly $182.85 — let’s just call it $183.</p><p><blockquote>要实现这一目标，苹果股价需要攀升至 182.85 美元左右，看涨期权为 183 美元。</blockquote></p><p> What’s been difficult is that the $180 area has become an area of resistance.</p><p><blockquote>困难的是，180 美元区域已成为阻力区域。</blockquote></p><p> We have actually been pretty fortunate when it comes to trading Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>在交易苹果股票方面，我们实际上相当幸运。</blockquote></p><p> On its first push to the $3 trillion level, we were selling the news and looking for a bearish reversal.</p><p><blockquote>在首次突破 3 万亿美元水平时，我们正在抛售消息并寻找看跌反转。</blockquote></p><p> That worked out as Apple corrected lower. However, that set up a pretty sweet bounce play that has been paying traders pretty well over the past few days.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果修正走低，这种情况得到了解决。然而，这创造了一个相当甜蜜的反弹游戏，在过去几天里给交易者带来了相当高的回报。</blockquote></p><p> At the risk of over-saturating our Apple discussion, how do the charts look now as it makes another push back up toward this key zone?</p><p><blockquote>冒着让我们的苹果讨论过度饱和的风险，当它再次向这个关键区域推进时，图表现在看起来如何？</blockquote></p><p> Trading Apple Stock</p><p><blockquote>交易苹果股票</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29cb7696d6e38eacaddae770a857ff3d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"741\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Daily chart of Apple stock.Chart courtesy of TrendSpider.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果股票日线图。图表由 TrendSpider.com 提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple’s powerful bounce off the 21-day moving average and rotation up through the 10-day has given the stock new life.</p><p><blockquote>苹果从 21 日移动平均线强劲反弹，并在 10 日移动平均线中向上轮动，赋予了该股新的生命。</blockquote></p><p> However, this $180 zone has been tricky thus far. One will notice how the stock tested up into this area on Tuesday and then struggled.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到目前为止，180 美元区域一直很棘手。人们会注意到该股周二如何测试这一区域，然后陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not unlike what we’re seeing with Meta (<b>MVRS</b>), although admittedly, the stock is not trading at all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们在 Meta 上看到的情况并无二致（<b>MVRS</b>），尽管不可否认的是，该股的交易价格并没有达到历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> From here, bulls want to see a push up through the all-time high, at $182.13. That opens the door directly to the $3 trillion market cap level — at $182.85-ish — and more new highs.</p><p><blockquote>从这里开始，多头希望看到突破182.13美元的历史高点。这直接打开了通往 3 万亿美元市值水平（约 182.85 美元）和更多新高的大门。</blockquote></p><p> The flip side of that scenario is that the $180 area holds as resistance.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况的另一面是 180 美元区域仍然是阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> In that case, I want to see the 10-day moving average hold as support on the pullback. A break of this level puts the 21-day moving average back in play again, but it would be much healthier for the former to hold as support and for the latter to not be tested.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我希望看到 10 日移动平均线作为回调的支撑。突破这一水平将使 21 日移动平均线再次发挥作用，但前者作为支撑而后者不接受测试会更健康。</blockquote></p><p> In either scenario — the breakout or the pullback — investors will ultimately be looking for $3 trillion and new all-time highs eventually.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种情况——突破还是回调——投资者最终都将寻求 3 万亿美元和历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <i>When</i> Apple gets there — not if — it will have longer-term bulls sniffing for the $188 to $194 area, where the stock finds multiple upside extension levels.</p><p><blockquote><i>何时</i>苹果到达那里——如果——它将有长期多头嗅探 188 美元至 194 美元区域，该股在该区域找到多个上行延伸水平。</blockquote></p><p> Above $195 and the obvious is in play: $200.</p><p><blockquote>超过195美元，显而易见的是：200美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-apple-aapl-stock-3-trillion-market-cap-end-of-year\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-apple-aapl-stock-3-trillion-market-cap-end-of-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169856412","content_text":"Apple (AAPL) stock is again back in the spotlight on Tuesday.\nNot that it’s hard for the tech giant to find itself there, but it comes as the stock makes another push back to the $3 trillion market cap level.\nTo get there, Apple stock needs to climb to roughly $182.85 — let’s just call it $183.\nWhat’s been difficult is that the $180 area has become an area of resistance.\nWe have actually been pretty fortunate when it comes to trading Apple stock.\nOn its first push to the $3 trillion level, we were selling the news and looking for a bearish reversal.\nThat worked out as Apple corrected lower. However, that set up a pretty sweet bounce play that has been paying traders pretty well over the past few days.\nAt the risk of over-saturating our Apple discussion, how do the charts look now as it makes another push back up toward this key zone?\nTrading Apple Stock\nDaily chart of Apple stock.Chart courtesy of TrendSpider.com\nApple’s powerful bounce off the 21-day moving average and rotation up through the 10-day has given the stock new life.\nHowever, this $180 zone has been tricky thus far. One will notice how the stock tested up into this area on Tuesday and then struggled.\nIt’s not unlike what we’re seeing with Meta (MVRS), although admittedly, the stock is not trading at all-time highs.\nFrom here, bulls want to see a push up through the all-time high, at $182.13. That opens the door directly to the $3 trillion market cap level — at $182.85-ish — and more new highs.\nThe flip side of that scenario is that the $180 area holds as resistance.\nIn that case, I want to see the 10-day moving average hold as support on the pullback. A break of this level puts the 21-day moving average back in play again, but it would be much healthier for the former to hold as support and for the latter to not be tested.\nIn either scenario — the breakout or the pullback — investors will ultimately be looking for $3 trillion and new all-time highs eventually.\nWhen Apple gets there — not if — it will have longer-term bulls sniffing for the $188 to $194 area, where the stock finds multiple upside extension levels.\nAbove $195 and the obvious is in play: $200.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696874085,"gmtCreate":1640673096652,"gmtModify":1640673100311,"author":{"id":"3581502897038686","authorId":"3581502897038686","name":"Grit100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581502897038686","authorIdStr":"3581502897038686"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696874085","repostId":"1102262158","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102262158","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640670598,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1102262158?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-28 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff<blockquote>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102262158","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li> <li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li> <li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited 是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售情况并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为 Sea 是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p> A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对 Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）各部门的部分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长驱动力可能会带来惊喜，并在未来几年带来非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我 2022 年的十大精选股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为以一篇关于海洋的文章来结束这一年会很好。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不猜测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了我的Sea股票。这是我为数不多的亏损头寸之一，我没有为了税收损失而暂时卖出，在这篇文章中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此高的信念。</blockquote></p><p> It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea 是全球第 121 大公司，但在对冲基金中却是第 16 大最受欢迎的持股。这意味着，大钱是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份由机构持有。</blockquote></p><p> Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Sea 在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在未来几年内推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 的游戏部门 Garena 以内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有Android游戏中拥有第二多的月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内发售，但在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p> With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些比Free Fire更古老的手机游戏仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、部落冲突和Pokemon Go——但还有更多的游戏被遗忘了。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也能成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个一鸣惊人的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p> Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena 是 Sea 的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是一个为 Sea 非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea 最近抛售的原因之一可能是 Garena 暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：盈利看涨期权演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena 将 2021 年预订指引上调至 $4.5B-$4.7B（从 $4.3B-$4.5B）。前三个季度的预订总额已经达到$3.5B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0B-$1.2B，同比增长0%至20%，并可能随后下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为 29%，全年的预计增长率为 44%。</blockquote></p><p> While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然 20% 并不是可怕的减速，但 0% 肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是 20% 的增长也并不引人注目。在 10% 的中点，Garena 的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或 Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是 Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena 的隐含估值应该——而且确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena 的利润比他们略高，上行风险可能更大，因此我将使用 5 倍的市盈率作为我的隐含估值。这意味着对于一个以10%左右的速度增长的企业来说，市盈率约为10，这在当今的市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层的高端指导，Garena 的价值为 $23.5B。</blockquote></p><p> I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li> <li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li> <li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li> <li>Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.</li> </ul> <b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，未来几年甚至明年的增长可能会再次加速，特别是如果Garena发布了一款新的热门游戏。下一季度的增长率并非基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自过去一年也处于估值范围低端的公司。</li><li>Garena有着良好的业绩记录，并继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至增加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着 Garena 认为 Free Fire 仍处于生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了 Free Fire 之外，Garena 还分发腾讯控股 (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY) 等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命召唤看涨期权》这样的热门游戏，有意义地分散了Garena的收入。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 的电子商务平台 Shopee 目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），最近它扩展到了包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p> There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁才是一个地区的真正亚马逊，总有一些争论。Shopee 当然面临着竞争对手，包括阿里巴巴 (NYSE:BABA) 的 Lazada、印度尼西亚的 Tokopedia、巴西的 MercadoLibre (MELI)，甚至亚马逊本身。由于大多数竞争都是私营的或隐藏在一家更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。即使是Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p> One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常注重移动端，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store App排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动方面，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个列出的国家排名第一的购物应用程序。在移动优先的世界里，这是一个非常好的兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee 也获胜，除了在拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，它是一个不错的代理。第三方估计，Shopee 占东南亚所有电子商务的 57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额上的主导地位，让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家拥有如此巨大潜力的公司会被抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p> After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师表示担心，Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前，正在向波兰和墨西哥等其他国家拓展业务。在这些国家，Shopee的存在较少；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5名之间，在波兰的1-3名之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官评论说他们没有衡量这些早期国家成功的具体措施也无济于事——但 Shopee 有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试扩张更多。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子大小（平均购买大小）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子大小缩小，但整体销售额却大幅增长，这很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前指引 2021 年电子商务收入为 $5.0B-$5.2B。第四季度增长了 75%-100%，全年增长了约 135%。这些数字比游戏方面令人兴奋得多，尽管指导仍然暗示第四季度会略有放缓。但与亚马逊 2020 年 3400 亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee 看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济的增长速度普遍快于美国。</blockquote></p><p> Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但电子商务部门更难估值，因为它亏损运营（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee 的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低的周期性更强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管无利可图，Sea的40法则104分优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行亚马逊（21）、MercadoLibre（73）和阿里巴巴-SW（43）。</blockquote></p><p> To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为 4 倍。AWS 推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高曝光率抵消了这一数字。其他电子商务市场同行的估值也类似：阿里巴巴-SW市盈率为 3 倍，MercadoLibre 市盈率为 9 倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史最低点。</blockquote></p><p> If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Shopee 在未来几年内保持收入翻番（自 2016 年以来，它每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率，那么今天的市盈率为 16 倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等更长的时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整体行业倍数扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为 16 倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或从未盈利，那么投资者会对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p> Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于如此广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到 Shopee 在移动领域的主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自 Garena 的资金，以及亚马逊、阿里巴巴-SW和 MercadoLibre 为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功开创的先例时，我对这一细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到目前这是一个无利可图且风险较高的领域，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很乐意支付 16 倍的市盈率，这意味着电子商务部门的估值为 83.2B 美元。有些人会把看涨期权定得太高，这些人可能永远不会有机会投资这家公司，不管是好是坏。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅 Garena 和 Shopee，我的 Sea 价值为 106.7B 美元。其目前的市值为 123.1B 美元。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FinTech & Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p> The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对我计算的估值来说，最简单的补充是 Sea 的 120 亿美元现金堆，部分被 40 亿美元债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管在Shopee上亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B的现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7B，仅比实际估值少$8.4B。</blockquote></p><p> Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是 Sea 的金融科技部门 SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，它在上一季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年内约20亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为 1.32 亿美元，同比增长 818%。这意味着2.9%的“接受率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于如此高的接受率，我并不担心 SeaMoney 在扩展过程中会亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 SeaMoney 是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以计入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这仅仅是个开始。五年前，没有人会想到一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天会比游戏部门更有价值。但 Sea 的管理——加上 Garena 资助新细分市场并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然不能保证Sea会在金融科技方面取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值是 Sea 的三分之一或更多（2020 年，金融科技占 MercadoLibre 收入的 36%），那么今天仅以 7% 的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率有点高 16 倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于 Visa、万事达卡（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和 Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，一个同比增长 818% 的细分市场可能会获得比这些增长较慢的公司更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测公平的市盈率是多少，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用 16 倍市盈率来达到 Sea 目前的估值。</blockquote></p><p> One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一种方式是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea 在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务领域采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea 正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是 Sea 投资者）和 Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这有着良好的先例。目前Sea的投资部门还处于非常早期的阶段，所以我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但这并不一定要被考虑在内来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是有一天可能值得一大片海洋的又一个区域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>查看 Sea 的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明 Sea 目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到较新细分市场的显著可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的很大一部分。随着金融科技领域目前的年增长率为818%，不需要太多的想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，金融科技领域就会让投资者无法忽视。</blockquote></p><p> This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择结合了每项业务的整体实力，使得 Sea 在过去一年的平均收入增长了 7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将是我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数不盈利的公司一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但是，即使你把电子商务一路降到5倍市盈率（这是今天增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司看到的倍数），这也意味着比今天的价格下降了54%。这肯定是一个急剧下降，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会面临这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像 Sea 这样的快速增长的公司才能通过收入增长快速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业几乎不会以最保守的估值进行交易。海洋当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我可以看到这些公司在本十年内市值达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff<blockquote>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff<blockquote>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-28 13:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li> <li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li> <li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited 是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售情况并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为 Sea 是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p> A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对 Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）各部门的部分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长驱动力可能会带来惊喜，并在未来几年带来非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我 2022 年的十大精选股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为以一篇关于海洋的文章来结束这一年会很好。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不猜测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了我的Sea股票。这是我为数不多的亏损头寸之一，我没有为了税收损失而暂时卖出，在这篇文章中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此高的信念。</blockquote></p><p> It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea 是全球第 121 大公司，但在对冲基金中却是第 16 大最受欢迎的持股。这意味着，大钱是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份由机构持有。</blockquote></p><p> Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Sea 在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在未来几年内推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 的游戏部门 Garena 以内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有Android游戏中拥有第二多的月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内发售，但在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p> With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些比Free Fire更古老的手机游戏仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、部落冲突和Pokemon Go——但还有更多的游戏被遗忘了。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也能成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个一鸣惊人的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p> Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena 是 Sea 的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是一个为 Sea 非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea 最近抛售的原因之一可能是 Garena 暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：盈利看涨期权演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena 将 2021 年预订指引上调至 $4.5B-$4.7B（从 $4.3B-$4.5B）。前三个季度的预订总额已经达到$3.5B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0B-$1.2B，同比增长0%至20%，并可能随后下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为 29%，全年的预计增长率为 44%。</blockquote></p><p> While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然 20% 并不是可怕的减速，但 0% 肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是 20% 的增长也并不引人注目。在 10% 的中点，Garena 的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或 Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是 Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena 的隐含估值应该——而且确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena 的利润比他们略高，上行风险可能更大，因此我将使用 5 倍的市盈率作为我的隐含估值。这意味着对于一个以10%左右的速度增长的企业来说，市盈率约为10，这在当今的市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层的高端指导，Garena 的价值为 $23.5B。</blockquote></p><p> I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li> <li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li> <li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li> <li>Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.</li> </ul> <b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，未来几年甚至明年的增长可能会再次加速，特别是如果Garena发布了一款新的热门游戏。下一季度的增长率并非基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自过去一年也处于估值范围低端的公司。</li><li>Garena有着良好的业绩记录，并继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至增加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着 Garena 认为 Free Fire 仍处于生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了 Free Fire 之外，Garena 还分发腾讯控股 (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY) 等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命召唤看涨期权》这样的热门游戏，有意义地分散了Garena的收入。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 的电子商务平台 Shopee 目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），最近它扩展到了包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p> There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁才是一个地区的真正亚马逊，总有一些争论。Shopee 当然面临着竞争对手，包括阿里巴巴 (NYSE:BABA) 的 Lazada、印度尼西亚的 Tokopedia、巴西的 MercadoLibre (MELI)，甚至亚马逊本身。由于大多数竞争都是私营的或隐藏在一家更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。即使是Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p> One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常注重移动端，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store App排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动方面，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个列出的国家排名第一的购物应用程序。在移动优先的世界里，这是一个非常好的兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee 也获胜，除了在拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，它是一个不错的代理。第三方估计，Shopee 占东南亚所有电子商务的 57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额上的主导地位，让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家拥有如此巨大潜力的公司会被抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p> After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师表示担心，Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前，正在向波兰和墨西哥等其他国家拓展业务。在这些国家，Shopee的存在较少；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5名之间，在波兰的1-3名之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官评论说他们没有衡量这些早期国家成功的具体措施也无济于事——但 Shopee 有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试扩张更多。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子大小（平均购买大小）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子大小缩小，但整体销售额却大幅增长，这很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前指引 2021 年电子商务收入为 $5.0B-$5.2B。第四季度增长了 75%-100%，全年增长了约 135%。这些数字比游戏方面令人兴奋得多，尽管指导仍然暗示第四季度会略有放缓。但与亚马逊 2020 年 3400 亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee 看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济的增长速度普遍快于美国。</blockquote></p><p> Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但电子商务部门更难估值，因为它亏损运营（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee 的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低的周期性更强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管无利可图，Sea的40法则104分优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行亚马逊（21）、MercadoLibre（73）和阿里巴巴-SW（43）。</blockquote></p><p> To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为 4 倍。AWS 推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高曝光率抵消了这一数字。其他电子商务市场同行的估值也类似：阿里巴巴-SW市盈率为 3 倍，MercadoLibre 市盈率为 9 倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史最低点。</blockquote></p><p> If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Shopee 在未来几年内保持收入翻番（自 2016 年以来，它每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率，那么今天的市盈率为 16 倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等更长的时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整体行业倍数扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为 16 倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或从未盈利，那么投资者会对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p> Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于如此广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到 Shopee 在移动领域的主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自 Garena 的资金，以及亚马逊、阿里巴巴-SW和 MercadoLibre 为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功开创的先例时，我对这一细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到目前这是一个无利可图且风险较高的领域，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很乐意支付 16 倍的市盈率，这意味着电子商务部门的估值为 83.2B 美元。有些人会把看涨期权定得太高，这些人可能永远不会有机会投资这家公司，不管是好是坏。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅 Garena 和 Shopee，我的 Sea 价值为 106.7B 美元。其目前的市值为 123.1B 美元。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FinTech & Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p> The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对我计算的估值来说，最简单的补充是 Sea 的 120 亿美元现金堆，部分被 40 亿美元债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管在Shopee上亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B的现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7B，仅比实际估值少$8.4B。</blockquote></p><p> Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是 Sea 的金融科技部门 SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，它在上一季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年内约20亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为 1.32 亿美元，同比增长 818%。这意味着2.9%的“接受率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于如此高的接受率，我并不担心 SeaMoney 在扩展过程中会亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 SeaMoney 是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以计入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这仅仅是个开始。五年前，没有人会想到一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天会比游戏部门更有价值。但 Sea 的管理——加上 Garena 资助新细分市场并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然不能保证Sea会在金融科技方面取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值是 Sea 的三分之一或更多（2020 年，金融科技占 MercadoLibre 收入的 36%），那么今天仅以 7% 的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率有点高 16 倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于 Visa、万事达卡（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和 Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，一个同比增长 818% 的细分市场可能会获得比这些增长较慢的公司更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测公平的市盈率是多少，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用 16 倍市盈率来达到 Sea 目前的估值。</blockquote></p><p> One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一种方式是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea 在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务领域采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea 正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是 Sea 投资者）和 Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这有着良好的先例。目前Sea的投资部门还处于非常早期的阶段，所以我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但这并不一定要被考虑在内来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是有一天可能值得一大片海洋的又一个区域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>查看 Sea 的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明 Sea 目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到较新细分市场的显著可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的很大一部分。随着金融科技领域目前的年增长率为818%，不需要太多的想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，金融科技领域就会让投资者无法忽视。</blockquote></p><p> This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择结合了每项业务的整体实力，使得 Sea 在过去一年的平均收入增长了 7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将是我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数不盈利的公司一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但是，即使你把电子商务一路降到5倍市盈率（这是今天增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司看到的倍数），这也意味着比今天的价格下降了54%。这肯定是一个急剧下降，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会面临这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像 Sea 这样的快速增长的公司才能通过收入增长快速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业几乎不会以最保守的估值进行交易。海洋当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我可以看到这些公司在本十年内市值达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476940-sea-limited-understand-the-recent-selloff\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476940-sea-limited-understand-the-recent-selloff","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102262158","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.\nI dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.\nI consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.\n\nkokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThesis\nA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.\nFurthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.\nIt's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.\nBecause Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.\nGaming\nSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.\nThe game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.\nWith the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.\nRegardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.\nThus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.\nSource: Earnings Call Presentation\nIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.\nWhile 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).\nGarena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.\nThis means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.\nI believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:\n\nNext year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.\nThe peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.\nGarena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.\nAlthough I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.\n\nE-Commerce\nSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.\nThere's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.\nOne neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.\nSource: The Author, compiled from Alexa\nShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.\nSource: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie\nOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.\nOf course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.\nSo why would a company with so much potential sell off?\nAfter the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.\nAnother complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.\nThe company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.\nDespite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.\nFor unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).\nTo understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.\nIf Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.\nGiven this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.\nSo I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.\nThus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.\nFinTech & Investments\nThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.\nThen there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.\nDespite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.\nIf one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.\nOne way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.\nFinally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.\nConclusion\nLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.\nThis optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.\nOnly fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696935794,"gmtCreate":1640595282526,"gmtModify":1640595291819,"author":{"id":"3581502897038686","authorId":"3581502897038686","name":"Grit100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c65cb20cfcce91cc07fddb27bc3ccd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581502897038686","authorIdStr":"3581502897038686"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696935794","repostId":"1114341247","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114341247","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640594800,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114341247?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 16:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna faces shareholder pressure over cost of vaccine<blockquote>Moderna 因疫苗成本面临股东压力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114341247","media":"Financial Times","summary":"Moderna explains why the price is so high given the amount of government-supported pharmaceutical gr","content":"<p><div> Moderna explains why the price is so high given the amount of government-supported pharmaceutical groups fighting shareholder proposals calling for the release of Covid-19 vaccine technology to poor ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Moderna解释了为什么价格如此之高，因为有大量政府支持的制药集团反对股东要求向穷人发布新冠肺炎疫苗技术的提案……</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f3747fed-ce48-48f5-b564-7c0a21aa378e\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f3747fed-ce48-48f5-b564-7c0a21aa378e\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1580170736413","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna faces shareholder pressure over cost of vaccine<blockquote>Moderna 因疫苗成本面临股东压力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna faces shareholder pressure over cost of vaccine<blockquote>Moderna 因疫苗成本面临股东压力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Financial Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-27 16:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Moderna explains why the price is so high given the amount of government-supported pharmaceutical groups fighting shareholder proposals calling for the release of Covid-19 vaccine technology to poor ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Moderna解释了为什么价格如此之高，因为有大量政府支持的制药集团反对股东要求向穷人发布新冠肺炎疫苗技术的提案……</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f3747fed-ce48-48f5-b564-7c0a21aa378e\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f3747fed-ce48-48f5-b564-7c0a21aa378e\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f3747fed-ce48-48f5-b564-7c0a21aa378e\">Financial Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.ft.com/content/f3747fed-ce48-48f5-b564-7c0a21aa378e","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114341247","content_text":"Moderna explains why the price is so high given the amount of government-supported pharmaceutical groups fighting shareholder proposals calling for the release of Covid-19 vaccine technology to poor countries. ..\nLegal & General Investment Management, a London-based asset management company, states that Moderna shareholders will see how U.S. government funding for Covid vaccines affects “access to such products, such as pricing.” Said it was worth knowing.\nAccording to LGIM, Moderna, which received at least $ 2.5 billion from the US government, has shipped vaccines to most wealthy countries and has not transferred its technology to manufacturers in low- or middle-income countries.\nModerna is fighting suggestion At the Securities and Exchange Commission. Companies regularly challenge shareholder proposals at the SEC and often win.\nApart from this, Oxfam worked with other investors to petition Moderna and Pfizer, demanding more from companies to share vaccine technology. For Moderna, both shareholder proposals represent the first investor petitions the company has faced since it was published in 2018.\nMassachusetts-based Moderna did not immediately respond to requests for comment.\nModerna has been pressured to lower prices and increase production in poor countries.Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Democratic Senator told the Financial Times last month, both Moderna and Pfizer need to “further work to address unacceptable disparities in global access to the Covid-19 vaccine, including dramatically expanding vaccine production worldwide.” there was.\nThe two are projected to reach more than $ 93 billion in Covid vaccine sales next year alone.\nRecommended\nModerna is in a particularly unusual position because it developed the vaccine in collaboration with the National Institutes of Health.Bernie Graham, one of the NIH scientists involved in the development process, told FT earlier this year about the government’s role in vaccine production.Give it “leverage” when it comes to pricing, it’s better than Moderna.\nHowever, Moderna strongly opposed the proposal and recently issued an official statement rejecting the idea that Graham and two other government scientists co-invented the vaccine.\nModerna said in a SEC’s request to block LGIM’s shareholder proposal, it plans to release additional information on vaccine pricing by February 15. “The company is virtually [LGIM] Suggestions before submitting an agent [voting] Material “.\nLGIM has previously jointly submitted a shareholder proposal at Eli Lilly and Gilead Sciences to split the roles of chairman and chief executive officer of both companies. In 2019, LGIM co-submitted a proposal for carbon emissions to BP.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}