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CHanzhong

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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2022-01-20
  K
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  981 评论
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2022-01-17
  Interesting
  Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.
  Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide c
  Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-10-15
  K
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-08-22
  Ok
  Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul
  The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs. ISTOCKPHOTO In the rolling correcti
  Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-07-26
  Cool
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-07-08
  Agreed
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-07-08
  Fear of slowdown in recovery
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  625 评论
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-07-08
  Fear of recovery slowdown
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-06-29
  Wow
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-06-25
  Cool.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108296248","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide c","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.</p><p>One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.</p><p>It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.</p><p>The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.</p><p>The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.</p><p>Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.</p><p>The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.</p><p>But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?</p><p>As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.</p><p>In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&amp;P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&amp;P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.</p><p>Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.</p><p>To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&amp;P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.</p><p><b>What’s working?</b></p><p>So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&amp;P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&amp;P 500 are either flat or lower.</p><p>Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&amp;P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.</p><p><b>What’s not working?</b></p><p>Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.</p><p><b>What’s really not working?</b></p><p>Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.</p><p>And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.</p><p>And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.</p><p>And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.</p><p><b>Week ahead</b></p><p>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.</p><p><b>Notable U.S. corporate earnings</b></p><p><b>TUESDAY:</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR</p><p><b>WEDNESDAY:</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST</p><p><b>THURSDAY:</b></p><p>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY</p><p><b>FRIDAY:</b></p><p>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN</p><p>U.S. economic reports</p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET</p><p>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.</p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.</p><p>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.</p><p>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p>Leading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGet Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-17 13:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108296248","content_text":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.What’s working?So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&P 500 are either flat or lower.Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.What’s not working?Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.What’s really not working?Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.Week aheadU.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.Notable U.S. corporate earningsTUESDAY:Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKRWEDNESDAY:Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter & Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FASTTHURSDAY:Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEYFRIDAY:Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBANU.S. economic reportsTuesdayEmpire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ETNAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.WednesdayBuilding permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.ThursdayInitial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.FridayLeading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825704713,"gmtCreate":1634256837351,"gmtModify":1634274408989,"author":{"id":"3581983907375620","authorId":"3581983907375620","name":"CHanzhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d4de2fa337d285889b33cba3bb8ea1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983907375620","authorIdStr":"3581983907375620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825704713","repostId":"2175118595","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832128504,"gmtCreate":1629599605208,"gmtModify":1631889958535,"author":{"id":"3581983907375620","authorId":"3581983907375620","name":"CHanzhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d4de2fa337d285889b33cba3bb8ea1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983907375620","authorIdStr":"3581983907375620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832128504","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p>\n<p>In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p>\n<p>The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p>\n<p>Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p>\n<p>A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p>\n<p>Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p>\n<p>You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p>\n<p><b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p>\n<p>“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p>\n<p>“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p>\n<p>He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p>\n<p>All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p>\n<p><b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p>\n<p>All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p>\n<p>In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p>\n<p>These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p>\n<p><b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p>\n<p>This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p>\n<p>This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p>\n<p><b>The stocks to buy</b></p>\n<p>Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p>\n<p><b>New management plays</b></p>\n<p>Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p>\n<p>Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p>\n<p><b>A data center and gaming play</b></p>\n<p>Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p>\n<p><b>Design tool companies</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p>\n<p>Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p>\n<p><b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p>\n<p>To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p>\n<p>In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p>\n<p><b>Oversupply</b></p>\n<p>Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p>\n<p>The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p>\n<p>Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p>\n<p>Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p>\n<p><b>A disturbing signal</b></p>\n<p>A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p>\n<p>Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p>\n<p>But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p>\n<p>Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p>\n<p>Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-23 22:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SSNLF":"三星电子","TSM":"台积电","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","ON":"安森美半导体","GOOG":"谷歌","CDNS":"铿腾电子","ASML":"阿斯麦","SNPS":"新思科技","AAPL":"苹果","QCOM":"高通","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. 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