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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2022-01-20
  K
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2022-01-17
  Interesting
  Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>为攀登做好准备。以下是历史对美联储加息周期中股市回报的评价。</blockquote>
  Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide c
  Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>为攀登做好准备。以下是历史对美联储加息周期中股市回报的评价。</blockquote>
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-10-15
  K
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-08-22
  Ok
  Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>
  The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs. ISTOCKPHOTO In the rolling correcti
  Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-07-26
  Cool
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-07-08
  Agreed
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-07-08
  Fear of slowdown in recovery
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-07-08
  Fear of recovery slowdown
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-06-29
  Wow
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- CHanzhongCHanzhong
  ·2021-06-25
  Cool.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>为攀登做好准备。以下是历史对美联储加息周期中股市回报的评价。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108296248","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide c","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>2022年迄今为止，债券收益率再次上升。美国股市似乎容易受到真正的调整。但是新年才两周，你到底能看出什么呢？不多，相当多。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的：在疫情时代，轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了。基准利率走高，债券收益率一直处于历史低位，注定会同步上升。</blockquote></p><p>It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储1月25日至26日召开今年首次政策会议之前，美联储成员似乎无法在过去的一周里更清楚地表明这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的美国消费者价格和生产者价格指数只是巩固了市场对美联储采取更激进或更鹰派货币政策的预期。</blockquote></p><p>The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>唯一真正的问题是联邦公开市场委员会在 2022 年将加息多少。摩根大通公司 (JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.) 首席执行官杰米·戴蒙 (Jamie Dimon) 暗示，7 可能是需要击败的数字，市场预测表明未来几个月联邦基金利率可能会上调三次。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，周五下午 10 年期国债收益率为 1.771%，这意味着收益率在新年开始的前 10 个交易日攀升了约 26 个基点，这将是自 1992 年以来最快的涨幅。道琼斯市场数据。回到 30 年前，10 年期国债年初上涨 32 个基点，达到 7% 左右。</blockquote></p><p>The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，对美联储利率变动更为敏感的 2 年期国债 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 正在敲响 1% 的大门，今年迄今已上涨 24 个基点。</blockquote></p><p>But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?</p><p><blockquote>但加息会导致股市走弱吗？</blockquote></p><p>As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，在所谓的加息周期（我们似乎最早将于 3 月份进入）期间，市场往往表现强劲，而不是糟糕。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&amp;P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&amp;P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，在美联储加息期间，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯的平均回报率接近 55%，标普500 SPX 的平均回报率为 62.9%，纳斯达克综合指数的平均正回报率为 102.7%。道琼斯使用 1989 年的数据（见附表）。美联储降息，或许并不奇怪，也带来了强劲的涨幅，道琼斯指数平均上涨 23%，标普500指数上涨 21%，纳斯达克指数上涨 32%，在美联储降息期间平均上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.</p><p><blockquote>降息往往发生在经济疲软时期，而加息往往发生在经济被某些衡量标准视为过热时，这可能解释了降息时期股市表现的差异。</blockquote></p><p>To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&amp;P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，在经济经历 20 世纪 70 年代式通胀的时期，很难看到市场表现出色。目前，根据 2022 年迄今为止股市的走势，看涨投资者似乎不太可能获得两位数的回报。1月份迄今为止，道琼斯指数下跌1.2%，标普500指数下跌2.2%，而纳斯达克综合指数下跌4.8%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么在起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&amp;P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&amp;P 500 are either flat or lower.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，股市交易的赢家是能源板块，标普500能源板块 XX:SP500 XLE 在 2022 年迄今为止上涨了 16.4%，而金融板块 XX:SP500 XLF 则遥遥领先，上涨了 4.4%。标普500的其他九个板块要么持平，要么走低。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&amp;P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，价值主题正在更加明显地卷土重来，根据 iShares 标普500价值 ETF IVE 的衡量，上周每周上涨 0.1%，但本月迄今为止的回报率为 1.2%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么不起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，随着债券收益率上升，增长因素正在受到打击，因为收益率的快速上升会降低其未来现金流的价值。较高的利率也阻碍了科技公司为股票回购提供资金的能力。广受欢迎的 iShares 标普500增长 ETF IVW 本周下跌 0.6%，1 月份迄今下跌 5.1%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s really not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到底出了什么问题？</b></blockquote></p><p>Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.</p><p><blockquote>生物技术股遭受重创，iShares 生物技术 ETF IBB 本周下跌 1.1%，本月迄今已下跌 9%。</blockquote></p><p>And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT 是一只受欢迎的零售导向 ETF，上周下跌 4.1%，导致本月迄今下跌 7.4%。</blockquote></p><p>And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.</p><p><blockquote>凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）的旗舰方舟创新 ETF ARKK 本周下跌近 5%，1 月份前两周下跌了 15.2%。该综合体中的其他基金，包括 ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG 和 ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF，也同样陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p>And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>流行的模因名称也受到打击，游戏驿站公司 GME 上周下跌 17%，1 月份下跌超过 21%，而AMC院线控股 AMC 本周下跌近 11%，本月迄今下跌超过 24%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Week ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来一周</b></blockquote></p><p>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国市场周一休市，以纪念马丁·路德·金纪念日。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Notable U.S. corporate earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得注意的美国企业盈利</b></blockquote></p><p><b>TUESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b></blockquote></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR</p><p><blockquote>高盛集团 GS、Truist Financial Corp. TFC、Signature Bank SBNY、PNC Financial PNC、J.B。亨特运输服务公司 JBHT、盈透证券集团公司 IBKR</blockquote></p><p><b>WEDNESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b></blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利 MS、美国银行 BAC、美国合众银行。USB、道富银行 STT、UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH、宝洁 PG、金德摩根 KMI、Fastenal Co. FAST</blockquote></p><p><b>THURSDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b></blockquote></p><p>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY</p><p><blockquote>Netflix NFLX、联合航空控股公司 UAL、美国航空 AAL、贝克休斯 BKR、Discover Financial Services DFS、CSX Corp. CSX、联合太平洋公司 UNP、旅行者公司。Inc. TRV、直觉外科公司 ISRG、KeyCorp。钥匙</blockquote></p><p><b>FRIDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五：</b></blockquote></p><p>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN</p><p><blockquote>斯伦贝谢 SLB、亨廷顿银行股份公司 HBAN</blockquote></p><p>U.S. economic reports</p><p><blockquote>美国经济报告</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>周二</b></blockquote></p><p>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:30 公布 1 月份帝国州制造业指数</blockquote></p><p>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点NAHB住宅建筑商指数1月份</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三</b></blockquote></p><p>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>12月的建筑许可和开始时间为上午8:30</blockquote></p><p>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午 8:30 费城联储一月份指数</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四</b></blockquote></p><p>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>截至 1 月 15 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数（以及 1 月 8 日的持续申请失业救济人数）上午 8:30</blockquote></p><p>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月成屋销售</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五</b></blockquote></p><p>Leading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月领先经济指标</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>为攀登做好准备。以下是历史对美联储加息周期中股市回报的评价。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGet Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>为攀登做好准备。以下是历史对美联储加息周期中股市回报的评价。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-17 13:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>2022年迄今为止，债券收益率再次上升。美国股市似乎容易受到真正的调整。但是新年才两周，你到底能看出什么呢？不多，相当多。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的：在疫情时代，轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了。基准利率走高，债券收益率一直处于历史低位，注定会同步上升。</blockquote></p><p>It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储1月25日至26日召开今年首次政策会议之前，美联储成员似乎无法在过去的一周里更清楚地表明这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的美国消费者价格和生产者价格指数只是巩固了市场对美联储采取更激进或更鹰派货币政策的预期。</blockquote></p><p>The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>唯一真正的问题是联邦公开市场委员会在 2022 年将加息多少。摩根大通公司 (JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.) 首席执行官杰米·戴蒙 (Jamie Dimon) 暗示，7 可能是需要击败的数字，市场预测表明未来几个月联邦基金利率可能会上调三次。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，周五下午 10 年期国债收益率为 1.771%，这意味着收益率在新年开始的前 10 个交易日攀升了约 26 个基点，这将是自 1992 年以来最快的涨幅。道琼斯市场数据。回到 30 年前，10 年期国债年初上涨 32 个基点，达到 7% 左右。</blockquote></p><p>The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，对美联储利率变动更为敏感的 2 年期国债 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 正在敲响 1% 的大门，今年迄今已上涨 24 个基点。</blockquote></p><p>But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?</p><p><blockquote>但加息会导致股市走弱吗？</blockquote></p><p>As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，在所谓的加息周期（我们似乎最早将于 3 月份进入）期间，市场往往表现强劲，而不是糟糕。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&amp;P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&amp;P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，在美联储加息期间，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯的平均回报率接近 55%，标普500 SPX 的平均回报率为 62.9%，纳斯达克综合指数的平均正回报率为 102.7%。道琼斯使用 1989 年的数据（见附表）。美联储降息，或许并不奇怪，也带来了强劲的涨幅，道琼斯指数平均上涨 23%，标普500指数上涨 21%，纳斯达克指数上涨 32%，在美联储降息期间平均上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.</p><p><blockquote>降息往往发生在经济疲软时期，而加息往往发生在经济被某些衡量标准视为过热时，这可能解释了降息时期股市表现的差异。</blockquote></p><p>To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&amp;P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，在经济经历 20 世纪 70 年代式通胀的时期，很难看到市场表现出色。目前，根据 2022 年迄今为止股市的走势，看涨投资者似乎不太可能获得两位数的回报。1月份迄今为止，道琼斯指数下跌1.2%，标普500指数下跌2.2%，而纳斯达克综合指数下跌4.8%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么在起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&amp;P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&amp;P 500 are either flat or lower.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，股市交易的赢家是能源板块，标普500能源板块 XX:SP500 XLE 在 2022 年迄今为止上涨了 16.4%，而金融板块 XX:SP500 XLF 则遥遥领先，上涨了 4.4%。标普500的其他九个板块要么持平，要么走低。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&amp;P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，价值主题正在更加明显地卷土重来，根据 iShares 标普500价值 ETF IVE 的衡量，上周每周上涨 0.1%，但本月迄今为止的回报率为 1.2%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么不起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，随着债券收益率上升，增长因素正在受到打击，因为收益率的快速上升会降低其未来现金流的价值。较高的利率也阻碍了科技公司为股票回购提供资金的能力。广受欢迎的 iShares 标普500增长 ETF IVW 本周下跌 0.6%，1 月份迄今下跌 5.1%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s really not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到底出了什么问题？</b></blockquote></p><p>Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.</p><p><blockquote>生物技术股遭受重创，iShares 生物技术 ETF IBB 本周下跌 1.1%，本月迄今已下跌 9%。</blockquote></p><p>And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT 是一只受欢迎的零售导向 ETF，上周下跌 4.1%，导致本月迄今下跌 7.4%。</blockquote></p><p>And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.</p><p><blockquote>凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）的旗舰方舟创新 ETF ARKK 本周下跌近 5%，1 月份前两周下跌了 15.2%。该综合体中的其他基金，包括 ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG 和 ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF，也同样陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p>And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>流行的模因名称也受到打击，游戏驿站公司 GME 上周下跌 17%，1 月份下跌超过 21%，而AMC院线控股 AMC 本周下跌近 11%，本月迄今下跌超过 24%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Week ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来一周</b></blockquote></p><p>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国市场周一休市，以纪念马丁·路德·金纪念日。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Notable U.S. corporate earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得注意的美国企业盈利</b></blockquote></p><p><b>TUESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b></blockquote></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR</p><p><blockquote>高盛集团 GS、Truist Financial Corp. TFC、Signature Bank SBNY、PNC Financial PNC、J.B。亨特运输服务公司 JBHT、盈透证券集团公司 IBKR</blockquote></p><p><b>WEDNESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b></blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利 MS、美国银行 BAC、美国合众银行。USB、道富银行 STT、UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH、宝洁 PG、金德摩根 KMI、Fastenal Co. FAST</blockquote></p><p><b>THURSDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b></blockquote></p><p>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY</p><p><blockquote>Netflix NFLX、联合航空控股公司 UAL、美国航空 AAL、贝克休斯 BKR、Discover Financial Services DFS、CSX Corp. CSX、联合太平洋公司 UNP、旅行者公司。Inc. TRV、直觉外科公司 ISRG、KeyCorp。钥匙</blockquote></p><p><b>FRIDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五：</b></blockquote></p><p>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN</p><p><blockquote>斯伦贝谢 SLB、亨廷顿银行股份公司 HBAN</blockquote></p><p>U.S. economic reports</p><p><blockquote>美国经济报告</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>周二</b></blockquote></p><p>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:30 公布 1 月份帝国州制造业指数</blockquote></p><p>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点NAHB住宅建筑商指数1月份</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三</b></blockquote></p><p>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>12月的建筑许可和开始时间为上午8:30</blockquote></p><p>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午 8:30 费城联储一月份指数</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四</b></blockquote></p><p>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>截至 1 月 15 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数（以及 1 月 8 日的持续申请失业救济人数）上午 8:30</blockquote></p><p>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月成屋销售</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五</b></blockquote></p><p>Leading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月领先经济指标</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108296248","content_text":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.What’s working?So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&P 500 are either flat or lower.Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.What’s not working?Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.What’s really not working?Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.Week aheadU.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.Notable U.S. corporate earningsTUESDAY:Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKRWEDNESDAY:Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter & Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FASTTHURSDAY:Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEYFRIDAY:Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBANU.S. economic reportsTuesdayEmpire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ETNAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.WednesdayBuilding permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.ThursdayInitial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.FridayLeading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825704713,"gmtCreate":1634256837351,"gmtModify":1634274408989,"author":{"id":"3581983907375620","authorId":"3581983907375620","name":"CHanzhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d4de2fa337d285889b33cba3bb8ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983907375620","authorIdStr":"3581983907375620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825704713","repostId":"2175118595","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832128504,"gmtCreate":1629599605208,"gmtModify":1631889958535,"author":{"id":"3581983907375620","authorId":"3581983907375620","name":"CHanzhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d4de2fa337d285889b33cba3bb8ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983907375620","authorIdStr":"3581983907375620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832128504","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌","QCOM":"高通","CDNS":"铿腾电子","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","TSM":"台积电","SSNLF":"三星电子","NVDA":"英伟达","ON":"安森美半导体","ASML":"阿斯麦","SNPS":"新思科技"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford 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