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  Apple Earnings Preview: This Could Move The Stock<blockquote>苹果盈利预览：这可能会影响股价</blockquote>
  SummaryApple will likely deliver record-breaking results in fiscal second quarter. But investors' an
  Apple Earnings Preview: This Could Move The Stock<blockquote>苹果盈利预览：这可能会影响股价</blockquote>
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10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Preview: This Could Move The Stock<blockquote>苹果盈利预览：这可能会影响股价</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115575814","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryApple will likely deliver record-breaking results in fiscal second quarter. But investors' an","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Apple will likely deliver record-breaking results in fiscal second quarter. But investors' and analysts' expectations also are set very high.</li><li>I see three paths to share price appreciation following earnings day. The least likely trigger of bullishness, in my view, is past results.</li><li>I remain an AAPL bull due to the quality of the product and service portfolio and strong balance sheet, despite rich valuations.</li><li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Storm-Resistant Growth get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »</li></ul>Big tech earnings week begins on April 26, and Apple (AAPL) will deliver its fiscal second quarter results on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果可能会在第二财季取得破纪录的业绩。但投资者和分析师的期望也很高。</li><li>我认为财报日后有三种分享股价升值的途径。在我看来，最不可能引发看涨情绪的是过去的结果。</li><li>尽管估值很高，但由于产品和服务组合的质量以及强劲的资产负债表，我仍然看好 AAPL。</li><li>在市场上寻找帮助？抗风暴增长的成员获得独家想法和指导，以适应任何气候。了解更多 »</li></ul>大型科技财报周将于 4 月 26 日开始，苹果 (AAPL) 将于周三公布第二财季业绩。</blockquote></p><p>There's little doubt, if any, that the Cupertino-based tech company will drop the mic against soft, pandemic-disrupted 2020 comps. In fact, Wall Street's consensus 32% top-line growth would bea five-year recordat least. Projected EPS of about $1 would be nearly twice as large as the \"normal\" fiscal second quarter earnings of $0.50 to $0.60 per share.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，如果有的话，这家总部位于库比蒂诺的科技公司将放弃麦克风，以应对疫情扰乱的2020年竞争。事实上，华尔街一致认为 32% 的营收增长将是五年来最低的记录。预计每股收益约为 1 美元，几乎是“正常”第二财季每股收益 0.50 美元至 0.60 美元的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>The problem then becomes: With valuations as rich as they have been recently (see chart below) and the bar for financial results set very high, what could possibly move Apple stock north, following earnings day?</p><p><blockquote>那么问题就变成了：鉴于最近的估值如此之高（见下图），并且财务业绩门槛设定得非常高，在财报日之后，什么可能会推动苹果股票向北移动？</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530fd76869f1ef0da6edde56fef14b14\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Data by YChartsCan results still impress?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>YChartsCan的数据结果仍然令人印象深刻？</b></blockquote></p><p>Of course, the first path to share price gains is financial results that are even higher than what analysts and investors currently expect. Due to the size of the segment (about half of total revenues in fiscal 2020), the iPhone could single-handedly do the trick.</p><p><blockquote>当然，分享价格上涨的第一个途径是财务业绩甚至高于分析师和投资者目前的预期。由于该细分市场的规模（约占2020财年总收入的一半），iPhone可以单枪匹马地做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p>One research companyexpects total global smartphone shipments to grow a whopping 50% YOY in the first three months of 2021. Not only that, but Apple is expected to defend an unlikely and rare September-to-March number one position in the market, outshining perma-leader Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)and perma-disrupter Huawei. Lastly, the mix of iPhone sales will probably skew to the higher end, followingreports of softnessin 12 mini demand. This should bode well for ASP (average selling price) and margins.</p><p><blockquote>一家研究公司预计，2021 年前三个月全球智能手机总出货量将同比增长 50%。不仅如此，苹果预计将在 9 月至 3 月期间捍卫不太可能且罕见的市场第一位置，超过永久领导者三星 (OTC: SSNLF) 和永久颠覆者华为。最后，在有报道称 12 mini 需求疲软后，iPhone 的销售组合可能会向高端倾斜。这对平均售价（平均售价）和利润率来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p>At least one more segment could wow investors on earnings day. The Mac accounts for only about 10% of Apple's revenues. Butat least one market research firmsees PC shipments increasing by an astounding 55% in the first calendar quarter of 2021. Believe it or not, Apple could perform about twice as strong, according to the same company.</p><p><blockquote>至少还有一个细分市场可能会在财报日让投资者惊叹不已。Mac仅占苹果收入的10%左右。但至少有一家市场研究公司预计，2021 年第一季度个人电脑出货量将惊人地增长 55%。信不信由你，据同一家公司称，苹果的表现可能是它的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>The back-of-the-envelope math here is simple: Assuming no change in average prices, 110% growth in Mac revenues times 10% total company revenue share adds up to 11% in top-line increase YOY. Apple, as a whole (i.e. with the help of all its segments), has not produced such revenue growth rates since 2018.</p><p><blockquote>这里的信封背面的数学很简单：假设平均价格没有变化，Mac 收入增长 110% 乘以公司总收入份额的 10%，营收同比增长高达 11%。苹果作为一个整体（即在其所有分部的帮助下），自2018年以来没有产生这样的收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reinstatement of guidance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恢复指导</b></blockquote></p><p>Even if Apple blows past fiscal second quarter estimates that already are aggressive, I'm skeptical that share price will react positively. It's plausible that investors will see the results as one-off, pandemic recovery performance that is already in the rear-view mirror.</p><p><blockquote>即使苹果超出了已经激进的第二财季预期，我也怀疑股价是否会做出积极反应。投资者很可能会将结果视为一次性的、已经成为后视镜的大流行复苏表现。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, what would most likely nudge the stock higher, if anything, is reinstatement of guidance – and a great one, of course. Starting precisely withfiscal second quarter earnings season last year, Apple's management team decided to stop offering its outlook due to COVID-19 uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果有的话，最有可能推动该股走高的是恢复指引——当然，这是一个很好的指引。从去年第二季度财报季开始，由于 COVID-19 的不确定性，苹果管理团队决定停止提供其前景。</blockquote></p><p>In a way, delivering above-consensus results and providing above-consensus guidance would be akin to two earnings beats in a single day. Also, it would offer investors something to focus on and look forward to beyond easy early pandemic comps. The tables below highlight the revenue and EPS metrics that Apple would be looking to beat with its outlook.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，交付高于共识的业绩并提供高于共识的指导类似于一天内两次盈利。此外，它还将为投资者提供一些值得关注和期待的东西，而不仅仅是简单的早期大流行比较。下表强调了苹果希望在其前景中超越的收入和每股收益指标。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11702c88c1a0c27ddf69ec817c794a5\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: tables bySeeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha 表格</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Cutting corners: Cash to shareholders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>偷工减料：为股东提供现金</b></blockquote></p><p>Lastly, Apple could bypass the P&amp;L altogether and spark bullishness by announcing an increase in cash payments to shareholders. The chart below shows that, since Tim Cook took over as CEO of the company, Apple has been a consistent (1) payer of dividends and (2) net buyer of its own stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后，苹果可以完全绕过损益表，通过宣布增加向股东支付现金来激发看涨情绪。下图显示，自蒂姆·库克接任公司首席执行官以来，苹果一直是 (1) 股息支付者和 (2) 自身股票的净买家。</blockquote></p><p>Despite all the past disbursements, Apple still holds nearly $200 billion in cash, equivalents and investments (or just short of $80 billion, in net-of-debt terms). In addition, Apple seems to have easy access to cheap money as the company proved to be the casewhen it issued $14 billionin debt in February 2021 at rates of only 115 to 120 basis points above Treasuries.</p><p><blockquote>尽管过去进行了所有支出，苹果仍持有近 2000 亿美元的现金、等价物和投资（按债务净额计算，略低于 800 亿美元）。此外，苹果似乎可以轻松获得廉价资金，事实证明，该公司在 2021 年 2 月发行了 140 亿美元的债务，利率仅比国债高出 115 至 120 个基点。</blockquote></p><p><b>Data by YCharts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据由YCharts提供</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Take share buybacks, for instance. Apple's net cash position is large enough to repurchase nearly 5% of the company's equity at current market prices, which represents just as much of a boost to EPS (think of the earnings divided by outstanding shares equation). If executed quickly enough, buying back stock would have the added benefit of increasing demand for Apple's shares, probably lifting their price.</p><p><blockquote>以股票回购为例。苹果的净现金头寸足够大，可以以当前市场价格回购该公司近 5% 的股权，这代表着每股收益的提升（想想收益除以流通股方程）。如果执行得足够快，回购股票将带来增加对苹果股票需求的额外好处，可能会推高其价格。</blockquote></p><p>It would be out of character for Apple to accelerate dividend payments or share retirement. But again, should the \"hidden agenda\" be to grow the market value of the company's equity, putting Apple's pile of cash to more productive use would not be a bad idea at all.</p><p><blockquote>苹果加快股息支付或股票退休将不符合其性格。但同样，如果“隐藏的议程”是增加公司股票的市值，那么将苹果的大量现金用于更有成效的用途根本不是一个坏主意。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Preview: This Could Move The Stock<blockquote>苹果盈利预览：这可能会影响股价</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Preview: This Could Move The Stock<blockquote>苹果盈利预览：这可能会影响股价</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-27 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Apple will likely deliver record-breaking results in fiscal second quarter. But investors' and analysts' expectations also are set very high.</li><li>I see three paths to share price appreciation following earnings day. The least likely trigger of bullishness, in my view, is past results.</li><li>I remain an AAPL bull due to the quality of the product and service portfolio and strong balance sheet, despite rich valuations.</li><li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Storm-Resistant Growth get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »</li></ul>Big tech earnings week begins on April 26, and Apple (AAPL) will deliver its fiscal second quarter results on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果可能会在第二财季取得破纪录的业绩。但投资者和分析师的期望也很高。</li><li>我认为财报日后有三种分享股价升值的途径。在我看来，最不可能引发看涨情绪的是过去的结果。</li><li>尽管估值很高，但由于产品和服务组合的质量以及强劲的资产负债表，我仍然看好 AAPL。</li><li>在市场上寻找帮助？抗风暴增长的成员获得独家想法和指导，以适应任何气候。了解更多 »</li></ul>大型科技财报周将于 4 月 26 日开始，苹果 (AAPL) 将于周三公布第二财季业绩。</blockquote></p><p>There's little doubt, if any, that the Cupertino-based tech company will drop the mic against soft, pandemic-disrupted 2020 comps. In fact, Wall Street's consensus 32% top-line growth would bea five-year recordat least. Projected EPS of about $1 would be nearly twice as large as the \"normal\" fiscal second quarter earnings of $0.50 to $0.60 per share.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，如果有的话，这家总部位于库比蒂诺的科技公司将放弃麦克风，以应对疫情扰乱的2020年竞争。事实上，华尔街一致认为 32% 的营收增长将是五年来最低的记录。预计每股收益约为 1 美元，几乎是“正常”第二财季每股收益 0.50 美元至 0.60 美元的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>The problem then becomes: With valuations as rich as they have been recently (see chart below) and the bar for financial results set very high, what could possibly move Apple stock north, following earnings day?</p><p><blockquote>那么问题就变成了：鉴于最近的估值如此之高（见下图），并且财务业绩门槛设定得非常高，在财报日之后，什么可能会推动苹果股票向北移动？</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530fd76869f1ef0da6edde56fef14b14\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Data by YChartsCan results still impress?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>YChartsCan的数据结果仍然令人印象深刻？</b></blockquote></p><p>Of course, the first path to share price gains is financial results that are even higher than what analysts and investors currently expect. Due to the size of the segment (about half of total revenues in fiscal 2020), the iPhone could single-handedly do the trick.</p><p><blockquote>当然，分享价格上涨的第一个途径是财务业绩甚至高于分析师和投资者目前的预期。由于该细分市场的规模（约占2020财年总收入的一半），iPhone可以单枪匹马地做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p>One research companyexpects total global smartphone shipments to grow a whopping 50% YOY in the first three months of 2021. Not only that, but Apple is expected to defend an unlikely and rare September-to-March number one position in the market, outshining perma-leader Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)and perma-disrupter Huawei. Lastly, the mix of iPhone sales will probably skew to the higher end, followingreports of softnessin 12 mini demand. This should bode well for ASP (average selling price) and margins.</p><p><blockquote>一家研究公司预计，2021 年前三个月全球智能手机总出货量将同比增长 50%。不仅如此，苹果预计将在 9 月至 3 月期间捍卫不太可能且罕见的市场第一位置，超过永久领导者三星 (OTC: SSNLF) 和永久颠覆者华为。最后，在有报道称 12 mini 需求疲软后，iPhone 的销售组合可能会向高端倾斜。这对平均售价（平均售价）和利润率来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p>At least one more segment could wow investors on earnings day. The Mac accounts for only about 10% of Apple's revenues. Butat least one market research firmsees PC shipments increasing by an astounding 55% in the first calendar quarter of 2021. Believe it or not, Apple could perform about twice as strong, according to the same company.</p><p><blockquote>至少还有一个细分市场可能会在财报日让投资者惊叹不已。Mac仅占苹果收入的10%左右。但至少有一家市场研究公司预计，2021 年第一季度个人电脑出货量将惊人地增长 55%。信不信由你，据同一家公司称，苹果的表现可能是它的两倍。</blockquote></p><p>The back-of-the-envelope math here is simple: Assuming no change in average prices, 110% growth in Mac revenues times 10% total company revenue share adds up to 11% in top-line increase YOY. Apple, as a whole (i.e. with the help of all its segments), has not produced such revenue growth rates since 2018.</p><p><blockquote>这里的信封背面的数学很简单：假设平均价格没有变化，Mac 收入增长 110% 乘以公司总收入份额的 10%，营收同比增长高达 11%。苹果作为一个整体（即在其所有分部的帮助下），自2018年以来没有产生这样的收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reinstatement of guidance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恢复指导</b></blockquote></p><p>Even if Apple blows past fiscal second quarter estimates that already are aggressive, I'm skeptical that share price will react positively. It's plausible that investors will see the results as one-off, pandemic recovery performance that is already in the rear-view mirror.</p><p><blockquote>即使苹果超出了已经激进的第二财季预期，我也怀疑股价是否会做出积极反应。投资者很可能会将结果视为一次性的、已经成为后视镜的大流行复苏表现。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, what would most likely nudge the stock higher, if anything, is reinstatement of guidance – and a great one, of course. Starting precisely withfiscal second quarter earnings season last year, Apple's management team decided to stop offering its outlook due to COVID-19 uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果有的话，最有可能推动该股走高的是恢复指引——当然，这是一个很好的指引。从去年第二季度财报季开始，由于 COVID-19 的不确定性，苹果管理团队决定停止提供其前景。</blockquote></p><p>In a way, delivering above-consensus results and providing above-consensus guidance would be akin to two earnings beats in a single day. Also, it would offer investors something to focus on and look forward to beyond easy early pandemic comps. The tables below highlight the revenue and EPS metrics that Apple would be looking to beat with its outlook.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，交付高于共识的业绩并提供高于共识的指导类似于一天内两次盈利。此外，它还将为投资者提供一些值得关注和期待的东西，而不仅仅是简单的早期大流行比较。下表强调了苹果希望在其前景中超越的收入和每股收益指标。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11702c88c1a0c27ddf69ec817c794a5\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: tables bySeeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha 表格</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Cutting corners: Cash to shareholders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>偷工减料：为股东提供现金</b></blockquote></p><p>Lastly, Apple could bypass the P&amp;L altogether and spark bullishness by announcing an increase in cash payments to shareholders. The chart below shows that, since Tim Cook took over as CEO of the company, Apple has been a consistent (1) payer of dividends and (2) net buyer of its own stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后，苹果可以完全绕过损益表，通过宣布增加向股东支付现金来激发看涨情绪。下图显示，自蒂姆·库克接任公司首席执行官以来，苹果一直是 (1) 股息支付者和 (2) 自身股票的净买家。</blockquote></p><p>Despite all the past disbursements, Apple still holds nearly $200 billion in cash, equivalents and investments (or just short of $80 billion, in net-of-debt terms). In addition, Apple seems to have easy access to cheap money as the company proved to be the casewhen it issued $14 billionin debt in February 2021 at rates of only 115 to 120 basis points above Treasuries.</p><p><blockquote>尽管过去进行了所有支出，苹果仍持有近 2000 亿美元的现金、等价物和投资（按债务净额计算，略低于 800 亿美元）。此外，苹果似乎可以轻松获得廉价资金，事实证明，该公司在 2021 年 2 月发行了 140 亿美元的债务，利率仅比国债高出 115 至 120 个基点。</blockquote></p><p><b>Data by YCharts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据由YCharts提供</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Take share buybacks, for instance. Apple's net cash position is large enough to repurchase nearly 5% of the company's equity at current market prices, which represents just as much of a boost to EPS (think of the earnings divided by outstanding shares equation). If executed quickly enough, buying back stock would have the added benefit of increasing demand for Apple's shares, probably lifting their price.</p><p><blockquote>以股票回购为例。苹果的净现金头寸足够大，可以以当前市场价格回购该公司近 5% 的股权，这代表着每股收益的提升（想想收益除以流通股方程）。如果执行得足够快，回购股票将带来增加对苹果股票需求的额外好处，可能会推高其价格。</blockquote></p><p>It would be out of character for Apple to accelerate dividend payments or share retirement. But again, should the \"hidden agenda\" be to grow the market value of the company's equity, putting Apple's pile of cash to more productive use would not be a bad idea at all.</p><p><blockquote>苹果加快股息支付或股票退休将不符合其性格。但同样，如果“隐藏的议程”是增加公司股票的市值，那么将苹果的大量现金用于更有成效的用途根本不是一个坏主意。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421003-apple-earnings-preview-this-move-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421003-apple-earnings-preview-this-move-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115575814","content_text":"SummaryApple will likely deliver record-breaking results in fiscal second quarter. But investors' and analysts' expectations also are set very high.I see three paths to share price appreciation following earnings day. The least likely trigger of bullishness, in my view, is past results.I remain an AAPL bull due to the quality of the product and service portfolio and strong balance sheet, despite rich valuations.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Storm-Resistant Growth get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »Big tech earnings week begins on April 26, and Apple (AAPL) will deliver its fiscal second quarter results on Wednesday.There's little doubt, if any, that the Cupertino-based tech company will drop the mic against soft, pandemic-disrupted 2020 comps. In fact, Wall Street's consensus 32% top-line growth would bea five-year recordat least. Projected EPS of about $1 would be nearly twice as large as the \"normal\" fiscal second quarter earnings of $0.50 to $0.60 per share.The problem then becomes: With valuations as rich as they have been recently (see chart below) and the bar for financial results set very high, what could possibly move Apple stock north, following earnings day?Data by YChartsCan results still impress?Of course, the first path to share price gains is financial results that are even higher than what analysts and investors currently expect. Due to the size of the segment (about half of total revenues in fiscal 2020), the iPhone could single-handedly do the trick.One research companyexpects total global smartphone shipments to grow a whopping 50% YOY in the first three months of 2021. Not only that, but Apple is expected to defend an unlikely and rare September-to-March number one position in the market, outshining perma-leader Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)and perma-disrupter Huawei. Lastly, the mix of iPhone sales will probably skew to the higher end, followingreports of softnessin 12 mini demand. This should bode well for ASP (average selling price) and margins.At least one more segment could wow investors on earnings day. The Mac accounts for only about 10% of Apple's revenues. Butat least one market research firmsees PC shipments increasing by an astounding 55% in the first calendar quarter of 2021. Believe it or not, Apple could perform about twice as strong, according to the same company.The back-of-the-envelope math here is simple: Assuming no change in average prices, 110% growth in Mac revenues times 10% total company revenue share adds up to 11% in top-line increase YOY. Apple, as a whole (i.e. with the help of all its segments), has not produced such revenue growth rates since 2018.Reinstatement of guidanceEven if Apple blows past fiscal second quarter estimates that already are aggressive, I'm skeptical that share price will react positively. It's plausible that investors will see the results as one-off, pandemic recovery performance that is already in the rear-view mirror.Therefore, what would most likely nudge the stock higher, if anything, is reinstatement of guidance – and a great one, of course. Starting precisely withfiscal second quarter earnings season last year, Apple's management team decided to stop offering its outlook due to COVID-19 uncertainties.In a way, delivering above-consensus results and providing above-consensus guidance would be akin to two earnings beats in a single day. Also, it would offer investors something to focus on and look forward to beyond easy early pandemic comps. The tables below highlight the revenue and EPS metrics that Apple would be looking to beat with its outlook.Source: tables bySeeking AlphaCutting corners: Cash to shareholdersLastly, Apple could bypass the P&L altogether and spark bullishness by announcing an increase in cash payments to shareholders. The chart below shows that, since Tim Cook took over as CEO of the company, Apple has been a consistent (1) payer of dividends and (2) net buyer of its own stock.Despite all the past disbursements, Apple still holds nearly $200 billion in cash, equivalents and investments (or just short of $80 billion, in net-of-debt terms). In addition, Apple seems to have easy access to cheap money as the company proved to be the casewhen it issued $14 billionin debt in February 2021 at rates of only 115 to 120 basis points above Treasuries.Data by YChartsTake share buybacks, for instance. Apple's net cash position is large enough to repurchase nearly 5% of the company's equity at current market prices, which represents just as much of a boost to EPS (think of the earnings divided by outstanding shares equation). If executed quickly enough, buying back stock would have the added benefit of increasing demand for Apple's shares, probably lifting their price.It would be out of character for Apple to accelerate dividend payments or share retirement. But again, should the \"hidden agenda\" be to grow the market value of the company's equity, putting Apple's pile of cash to more productive use would not be a bad idea at all.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}