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- idkwhatimdoiidkwhatimdoi
  ·2021-12-16
  yes let’s go
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- idkwhatimdoiidkwhatimdoi
  ·2021-12-10
  dumb article
  The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次经济衰退： “万物泡沫 ”何时破裂</blockquote>
  In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will be
  The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次经济衰退： “万物泡沫 ”何时破裂</blockquote>
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- idkwhatimdoiidkwhatimdoi
  ·2021-09-07
  ok buy all
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- idkwhatimdoiidkwhatimdoi
  ·2021-06-30
  like and comment please!
  Buffett and Munger Talk Zoom, Robinhood, and Lessons From the Pandemic<blockquote>巴菲特和芒格谈论 Zoom、Robinhood 和大流行的教训</blockquote>
  Unlike his longtime friend and business partner Charlie Munger,Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett
  Buffett and Munger Talk Zoom, Robinhood, and Lessons From the Pandemic<blockquote>巴菲特和芒格谈论 Zoom、Robinhood 和大流行的教训</blockquote>
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- idkwhatimdoiidkwhatimdoi
  ·2021-06-29
  like and comment please!
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- idkwhatimdoiidkwhatimdoi
  ·2021-06-28
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- idkwhatimdoiidkwhatimdoi
  ·2021-06-27
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- idkwhatimdoiidkwhatimdoi
  ·2021-06-26
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- idkwhatimdoiidkwhatimdoi
  ·2021-06-25
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- idkwhatimdoiidkwhatimdoi
  ·2021-06-24
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let’s go","listText":"yes let’s go","text":"yes let’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84f3eec22de2b78c22a8c3e40fc9ec1e","width":"1125","height":"3266"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690604992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605337966,"gmtCreate":1639111554229,"gmtModify":1639112148168,"author":{"id":"3582094048004898","authorId":"3582094048004898","name":"idkwhatimdoi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582094048004898","idStr":"3582094048004898"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"dumb article","listText":"dumb article","text":"dumb article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605337966","repostId":"1173696854","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173696854","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639100666,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1173696854?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 09:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次经济衰退： “万物泡沫 ”何时破裂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173696854","media":"Fortune","summary":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will be","content":"<p>In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>20XX年10月。这不是错别字。为了对下一次衰退何时开始做出最佳猜测，我们需要了解美联储如何制造不可持续的繁荣，以及为什么下一次衰退可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> A caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.</p><p><blockquote>需要一个警告。正如物理学家尼尔斯-玻尔（Niels Bohr）所说：“预测是非常困难的，尤其是在预测未来的时候。”尽管如此，我会无所畏惧地用我的10美分称重。美联储的通货膨胀政策让我的两美分增加了五倍。也许下一个加密货币就在地平线上：我的10美分。</blockquote></p><p> If a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who&nbsp;warned the public&nbsp;that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?</p><p><blockquote>如果狗可以拥有加密货币，为什么一位退休的金融学教授不能拥有加密货币呢？他曾在 1976 年春天警告公众，由于美联储的通胀政策，物价即将加速上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Consumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!</p><p><blockquote>1976年消费价格上涨5.7%，1977年6.5%，1978年7.6%，1979年11.3%，1980年13.5%。谈论金钱上的正确!</blockquote></p><p> As inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.</p><p><blockquote>由于通货膨胀在他的总统任期内飙升，时任总统吉米·卡特于 1979 年任命前银行家兼美国财政部官员保罗·沃尔克 (Paul Volcker) 来阻止多年来的物价螺旋上升。沃尔克取得了惊人的成功。1981 年消费者价格上涨了 10.3%，这表明在美联储的紧缩货币政策杀死通胀巨龙之前，通胀势头可能会持续一段时间。1982 年，物价上涨了 6.1%，1983 年上涨了 3.2%，而（奇迹中的奇迹）1986 年（沃尔克卸任美联储主席并由艾伦·格林斯潘接任的前一年）仅上涨了 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> To accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed&nbsp;raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现由于高通胀预期而当时被认为不可能实现的目标，沃尔克领导的美联储在1980年12月之前将联邦基金利率（银行相互借入隔夜贷款的利率）提高到了22%。沃尔克为阻止美元下滑而采取的紧缩货币政策的代价是接二连三的衰退： 1980 年是短暂的衰退，1981-1982 年又是短暂的衰退。一个例子是，从1980年1月到1982年11月，发生了一次实际上持续了三年的长期衰退。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinpointing the moment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>精确定位时刻</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.</p><p><blockquote>失业率是周期性衰退的最佳先行指标之一，失业率在 1979 年 5 月达到周期性底部（5.6%），比 1980 年经济衰退早几个月，直到 1982 年 11 月（10.8%）才达到顶峰。失业率一直下降，直到1990年下一次裁员开始加速。</blockquote></p><p> Currently,<b>the unemployment rate</b>&nbsp;has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the&nbsp;historical pattern&nbsp;reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.</p><p><blockquote>目前，<b>失业率</b>已从 2020 年初的封锁峰值开始下降，并已达到历史上预示着周期性繁荣结束的水平。封锁无疑扭曲了失业率，但历史模式表明，当失业率接近3%然后上升时，衰退将很快开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746377b702eacfdfaa019222f8161b85\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The yield curve</b>&nbsp;is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益率曲线</b>是最广泛遵循的财务指标之一，通常预示着一年内的经济衰退。收益率曲线揭示了短期利率和长期利率之间的关系。通常情况下，收益率曲线是向上倾斜的，就像今天一样，当短期利率低于长期利率时，反映了金融市场中大量的流动性。</blockquote></p><p> When the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was&nbsp;virtually inverted&nbsp;at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储担心经济 “过热 ”时，它往往会提高联邦基金利率，以冷却物价通胀，而物价通胀发生在 2000 年互联网泡沫和 2007 年房地产泡沫破裂之前。收益率曲线在2019年底几乎倒挂，这表明衰退将在2020年的某个时候开始。然而，应对新冠肺炎的封锁导致了2020年初的经济衰退，而不是典型的周期性衰退。</blockquote></p><p> Now the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein&nbsp;jected $4 trillion&nbsp;of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.</p><p><blockquote>现在，由于美联储注入了 4 万亿美元的流动性来 “模拟 ”经济，经济又处于周期性上升期。在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）最近一次会议上，决定将每月购买量从1200亿美元减少到1050亿美元。换句话说，即使通胀率最近同比突破6%，美联储仍将继续踩下货币踏板。过去，通胀加速会敲响美联储加息以抑制通胀压力和预期的警钟。目前，美联储的想法是，物价通胀是 “暂时的”，因此不必收紧货币政策。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> My fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我无畏的预测是：2022 年通胀将加速。然后，公众对物价飞涨的强烈抗议和媒体报道强调物价如何削弱普通家庭的购买力，这可能会导致拜登政府像尼克松总统在 1971 年那样，在 1972 年竞选连任之前实施工资价格控制，以消除通货膨胀的困扰。如果国会不授予拜登实施价格控制的法定权力，拜登可以使用行政命令。</blockquote></p><p> Without price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有价格控制，我预计美联储将在 2022 年的某个时候提高联邦基金利率，并在 2023 年继续收紧。因此，下一次衰退可能会在 2023 年秋季开始，但不会晚于一年。如果衰退没有如期开始，那只意味着它被推迟了，而不是被消除了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次经济衰退： “万物泡沫 ”何时破裂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次经济衰退： “万物泡沫 ”何时破裂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Fortune</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-10 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>20XX年10月。这不是错别字。为了对下一次衰退何时开始做出最佳猜测，我们需要了解美联储如何制造不可持续的繁荣，以及为什么下一次衰退可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> A caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.</p><p><blockquote>需要一个警告。正如物理学家尼尔斯-玻尔（Niels Bohr）所说：“预测是非常困难的，尤其是在预测未来的时候。”尽管如此，我会无所畏惧地用我的10美分称重。美联储的通货膨胀政策让我的两美分增加了五倍。也许下一个加密货币就在地平线上：我的10美分。</blockquote></p><p> If a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who&nbsp;warned the public&nbsp;that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?</p><p><blockquote>如果狗可以拥有加密货币，为什么一位退休的金融学教授不能拥有加密货币呢？他曾在 1976 年春天警告公众，由于美联储的通胀政策，物价即将加速上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Consumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!</p><p><blockquote>1976年消费价格上涨5.7%，1977年6.5%，1978年7.6%，1979年11.3%，1980年13.5%。谈论金钱上的正确!</blockquote></p><p> As inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.</p><p><blockquote>由于通货膨胀在他的总统任期内飙升，时任总统吉米·卡特于 1979 年任命前银行家兼美国财政部官员保罗·沃尔克 (Paul Volcker) 来阻止多年来的物价螺旋上升。沃尔克取得了惊人的成功。1981 年消费者价格上涨了 10.3%，这表明在美联储的紧缩货币政策杀死通胀巨龙之前，通胀势头可能会持续一段时间。1982 年，物价上涨了 6.1%，1983 年上涨了 3.2%，而（奇迹中的奇迹）1986 年（沃尔克卸任美联储主席并由艾伦·格林斯潘接任的前一年）仅上涨了 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> To accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed&nbsp;raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现由于高通胀预期而当时被认为不可能实现的目标，沃尔克领导的美联储在1980年12月之前将联邦基金利率（银行相互借入隔夜贷款的利率）提高到了22%。沃尔克为阻止美元下滑而采取的紧缩货币政策的代价是接二连三的衰退： 1980 年是短暂的衰退，1981-1982 年又是短暂的衰退。一个例子是，从1980年1月到1982年11月，发生了一次实际上持续了三年的长期衰退。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinpointing the moment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>精确定位时刻</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.</p><p><blockquote>失业率是周期性衰退的最佳先行指标之一，失业率在 1979 年 5 月达到周期性底部（5.6%），比 1980 年经济衰退早几个月，直到 1982 年 11 月（10.8%）才达到顶峰。失业率一直下降，直到1990年下一次裁员开始加速。</blockquote></p><p> Currently,<b>the unemployment rate</b>&nbsp;has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the&nbsp;historical pattern&nbsp;reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.</p><p><blockquote>目前，<b>失业率</b>已从 2020 年初的封锁峰值开始下降，并已达到历史上预示着周期性繁荣结束的水平。封锁无疑扭曲了失业率，但历史模式表明，当失业率接近3%然后上升时，衰退将很快开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746377b702eacfdfaa019222f8161b85\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The yield curve</b>&nbsp;is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益率曲线</b>是最广泛遵循的财务指标之一，通常预示着一年内的经济衰退。收益率曲线揭示了短期利率和长期利率之间的关系。通常情况下，收益率曲线是向上倾斜的，就像今天一样，当短期利率低于长期利率时，反映了金融市场中大量的流动性。</blockquote></p><p> When the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was&nbsp;virtually inverted&nbsp;at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储担心经济 “过热 ”时，它往往会提高联邦基金利率，以冷却物价通胀，而物价通胀发生在 2000 年互联网泡沫和 2007 年房地产泡沫破裂之前。收益率曲线在2019年底几乎倒挂，这表明衰退将在2020年的某个时候开始。然而，应对新冠肺炎的封锁导致了2020年初的经济衰退，而不是典型的周期性衰退。</blockquote></p><p> Now the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein&nbsp;jected $4 trillion&nbsp;of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.</p><p><blockquote>现在，由于美联储注入了 4 万亿美元的流动性来 “模拟 ”经济，经济又处于周期性上升期。在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）最近一次会议上，决定将每月购买量从1200亿美元减少到1050亿美元。换句话说，即使通胀率最近同比突破6%，美联储仍将继续踩下货币踏板。过去，通胀加速会敲响美联储加息以抑制通胀压力和预期的警钟。目前，美联储的想法是，物价通胀是 “暂时的”，因此不必收紧货币政策。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> My fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我无畏的预测是：2022 年通胀将加速。然后，公众对物价飞涨的强烈抗议和媒体报道强调物价如何削弱普通家庭的购买力，这可能会导致拜登政府像尼克松总统在 1971 年那样，在 1972 年竞选连任之前实施工资价格控制，以消除通货膨胀的困扰。如果国会不授予拜登实施价格控制的法定权力，拜登可以使用行政命令。</blockquote></p><p> Without price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有价格控制，我预计美联储将在 2022 年的某个时候提高联邦基金利率，并在 2023 年继续收紧。因此，下一次衰退可能会在 2023 年秋季开始，但不会晚于一年。如果衰退没有如期开始，那只意味着它被推迟了，而不是被消除了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html\">Fortune</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173696854","content_text":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.\nA caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.\nIf a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who warned the public that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?\nConsumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!\nAs inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.\nTo accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.\nPinpointing the moment\nOne of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.\nCurrently,the unemployment rate has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the historical pattern reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.\n\nThe yield curve is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.\nWhen the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was virtually inverted at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.\nNow the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein jected $4 trillion of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.\nMy fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.\nWithout price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817764862,"gmtCreate":1630989953756,"gmtModify":1631890899801,"author":{"id":"3582094048004898","authorId":"3582094048004898","name":"idkwhatimdoi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582094048004898","idStr":"3582094048004898"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok buy all","listText":"ok buy all","text":"ok buy all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817764862","repostId":"2165138067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153450327,"gmtCreate":1625044496469,"gmtModify":1631890899804,"author":{"id":"3582094048004898","authorId":"3582094048004898","name":"idkwhatimdoi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582094048004898","idStr":"3582094048004898"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like and comment please!","listText":"like and comment please!","text":"like and comment please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":37,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153450327","repostId":"1145186822","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145186822","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625043845,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145186822?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 17:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buffett and Munger Talk Zoom, Robinhood, and Lessons From the Pandemic<blockquote>巴菲特和芒格谈论 Zoom、Robinhood 和大流行的教训</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145186822","media":"Barrons","summary":"Unlike his longtime friend and business partner Charlie Munger,Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett","content":"<p>Unlike his longtime friend and business partner Charlie Munger,Berkshire Hathaway&nbsp;CEO Warren Buffett isn’t a huge fan of&nbsp;Zoom&nbsp;meetings.</p><p><blockquote>与他的老朋友兼商业伙伴查理-芒格不同，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦-巴菲特并不喜欢 Zoom 会议。</blockquote></p><p> “I did it once or twice, and they had a whole screen of people. I just didn’t figure it was adding to the experience,” Buffett, 90, said&nbsp;in an interview with CNBC&nbsp;that aired Tuesday. “I find the telephone a very satisfactory instrument.”</p><p><blockquote>“我做过一两次，他们有一整个屏幕上的人。90 岁的巴菲特在周二播出的 CNBC 采访中说：”我只是觉得这并没有增加体验。“我觉得电话是一种非常令人满意的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> Munger, on the other hand, uses the service three times a day. “I think Zoom is here to stay,” Munger said. “It just adds so much convenience.”</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，芒格每天使用这项服务三次。“芒格说：”我认为 Zoom 会继续存在。“这增加了很多便利。”</blockquote></p><p> “Well, particularly, if you’re 97,” Buffett quipped, referring to Munger’s age.</p><p><blockquote>“巴菲特在谈到芒格的年龄时打趣道：”尤其是如果你已经 97 岁了。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview with CNBC filmed from Munger’s backyard in Los Angeles after&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting&nbsp;in May, the pair also discussed the uneven impact of the pandemic on small businesses, their negative views of trading platform Robinhood, and the dangers of excessive margin.</p><p><blockquote>今年 5 月伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司年会结束后，在芒格位于洛杉矶的后院接受 CNBC 采访时，两人还讨论了大流行病对小企业的不均衡影响、他们对交易平台 Robinhood 的负面看法以及过高利润的危险。</blockquote></p><p> On the impact of the pandemic, Buffett said: “I don’t know how many but many hundreds of thousands or millions of small businesses have been hurt in a terrible way. But most of the big, big companies have overwhelmingly done fine unless they happen to be in cruise lines or hotels or something.”</p><p><blockquote>关于大流行病的影响，巴菲特说： “我不知道有多少，而是数十万或数百万家小企业受到了可怕的伤害。但大多数大公司都做得很好，除非它们碰巧是邮轮公司、酒店或其他行业。”</blockquote></p><p> Munger said he believes a lot of business travel, among other things, won’t come back following the pandemic. “A lot of people have found they don’t need to be [in an office]. I think all kinds of things are going to happen that we don’t go back to what we did before.”</p><p><blockquote>芒格说，他相信，除其他外，许多商务旅行不会在大流行病之后卷土重来。“很多人发现他们不需要[在办公室里]。我认为各种各样的事情都会发生，我们不会回到以前的样子。”</blockquote></p><p> “Some people did better than [the U.S.],” Munger added, referring to China’s aggressive response to the virus and subsequent recovery. “They didn’t allow any contact. You picked up your groceries in a box in the apartment and that’s all the contact you had with anybody for six weeks. And, when it was all over, they kind of went back to work. It happened they did it exactly right.”</p><p><blockquote>“芒格补充说：”有些人比（美国）做得更好，他指的是中国对病毒的积极应对以及随后的复苏。“他们不允许任何接触。你在公寓的一个盒子里拿了你的杂货，这就是你六周来与任何人的全部接触。当一切结束后，他们又回去工作了。碰巧他们做得完全正确。”</blockquote></p><p> Much of the special was biographical, with Buffett and Munger reflecting on their first meeting and how their friendship-at-first-sight evolved into a decadeslong venture&nbsp;transforming the Berkshire Hathaway textile company into one of the world’s largest conglomerates.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特和芒格回顾了他们的初次见面，以及他们一见钟情如何发展成为长达数十年的合资企业，将伯克希尔-哈撒韦纺织公司转变为世界上最大的企业集团之一。</blockquote></p><p> Asked about Robinhood, Munger called the stock trading app “a gambling parlor masquerading as a respectable business.”</p><p><blockquote>当被问及 Robinhood 时，芒格称这款股票交易应用是 “伪装成体面企业的赌场”。</blockquote></p><p> “[Robinhood] is not encouraging people to buy a very, very, very low-cost index fund and hold it for 50 years,” Buffett said. “I will guarantee you that you will not walk in there, get that advice. Instead, you’ll get advice on how you can trade options.”</p><p><blockquote>“巴菲特说：”[Robinhood]并不鼓励人们购买非常、非常、非常低的指数基金并持有50年。“我保证你不会走进去，得到建议。相反，你会得到如何交易期权的建议”。</blockquote></p><p> Munger also suggested apps like Robinhood aren’t commission-free because the real costs—namely the process of&nbsp;payment for order flow—are hidden.</p><p><blockquote>芒格还表示，像 Robinhood 这样的应用程序不是免佣金的，因为真实的成本--即订单流的支付过程--是隐藏的。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s basically a sleazy, disreputable operation,” Munger said. “And the interesting thing about it is that some good people you would be glad to have marry into your family have backed it.”</p><p><blockquote>“芒格说：”这基本上是一次肮脏、声名狼藉的行动。“有趣的是，一些你很乐意嫁入你的家庭的好人支持它”。</blockquote></p><p> Reached for comment, a Robinhood spokesperson referred<i>Barron’s</i>to a May 3 statement from when Munger and Buffett previously criticized the app. “Robinhood has made investing simpler and more accessible to more people — and the public has responded. We are proud of that fact,” Jacqueline Ortiz Ramsay, head of public policy communications at Robinhood,wrote at the time.</p><p><blockquote>记者联系 Robinhood 发言人置评<i>巴伦</i>到 5 月 3 日芒格和巴菲特此前批评该应用程序时的声明。“Robinhood 让更多人更容易投资--公众也做出了回应。我们为此感到自豪，”Robinhood 公共政策传播主管杰奎琳-奥尔蒂斯-拉姆齐（Jacqueline Ortiz Ramsay）当时写道。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding the&nbsp;blow-up of&nbsp;hedge fund Archegos Capital that resulted in market volatility and major losses at several banks earlier this year, Munger called for more strict margin requirements.</p><p><blockquote>对于今年早些时候对冲基金Archegos Capital爆炸事件导致市场波动和几家银行重大损失，芒格呼吁更严格的保证金要求。</blockquote></p><p> “The people who are making money out of this unreasonable extension of credit argue for it, and nobody’s speaking against it,” Munger said. “And last time around, we got the correct regulation that came and stayed for a long time on margin debt only because we had the worst depression in the history of the English-speaking world. That’s what it took to get a little sense into the politicians.”</p><p><blockquote>“芒格说：”那些从这种不合理的信贷延期中赚钱的人都在为它辩护，没有人反对它。“上次，我们得到了正确的监管，因为我们经历了英语世界历史上最严重的萧条，所以对保证金债务进行了很长时间的监管。这就是政治家们获得一点理智的原因”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett and Munger Talk Zoom, Robinhood, and Lessons From the Pandemic<blockquote>巴菲特和芒格谈论 Zoom、Robinhood 和大流行的教训</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett and Munger Talk Zoom, Robinhood, and Lessons From the Pandemic<blockquote>巴菲特和芒格谈论 Zoom、Robinhood 和大流行的教训</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 17:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Unlike his longtime friend and business partner Charlie Munger,Berkshire Hathaway&nbsp;CEO Warren Buffett isn’t a huge fan of&nbsp;Zoom&nbsp;meetings.</p><p><blockquote>与他的老朋友兼商业伙伴查理-芒格不同，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦-巴菲特并不喜欢 Zoom 会议。</blockquote></p><p> “I did it once or twice, and they had a whole screen of people. I just didn’t figure it was adding to the experience,” Buffett, 90, said&nbsp;in an interview with CNBC&nbsp;that aired Tuesday. “I find the telephone a very satisfactory instrument.”</p><p><blockquote>“我做过一两次，他们有一整个屏幕上的人。90 岁的巴菲特在周二播出的 CNBC 采访中说：”我只是觉得这并没有增加体验。“我觉得电话是一种非常令人满意的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> Munger, on the other hand, uses the service three times a day. “I think Zoom is here to stay,” Munger said. “It just adds so much convenience.”</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，芒格每天使用这项服务三次。“芒格说：”我认为 Zoom 会继续存在。“这增加了很多便利。”</blockquote></p><p> “Well, particularly, if you’re 97,” Buffett quipped, referring to Munger’s age.</p><p><blockquote>“巴菲特在谈到芒格的年龄时打趣道：”尤其是如果你已经 97 岁了。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview with CNBC filmed from Munger’s backyard in Los Angeles after&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting&nbsp;in May, the pair also discussed the uneven impact of the pandemic on small businesses, their negative views of trading platform Robinhood, and the dangers of excessive margin.</p><p><blockquote>今年 5 月伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司年会结束后，在芒格位于洛杉矶的后院接受 CNBC 采访时，两人还讨论了大流行病对小企业的不均衡影响、他们对交易平台 Robinhood 的负面看法以及过高利润的危险。</blockquote></p><p> On the impact of the pandemic, Buffett said: “I don’t know how many but many hundreds of thousands or millions of small businesses have been hurt in a terrible way. But most of the big, big companies have overwhelmingly done fine unless they happen to be in cruise lines or hotels or something.”</p><p><blockquote>关于大流行病的影响，巴菲特说： “我不知道有多少，而是数十万或数百万家小企业受到了可怕的伤害。但大多数大公司都做得很好，除非它们碰巧是邮轮公司、酒店或其他行业。”</blockquote></p><p> Munger said he believes a lot of business travel, among other things, won’t come back following the pandemic. “A lot of people have found they don’t need to be [in an office]. I think all kinds of things are going to happen that we don’t go back to what we did before.”</p><p><blockquote>芒格说，他相信，除其他外，许多商务旅行不会在大流行病之后卷土重来。“很多人发现他们不需要[在办公室里]。我认为各种各样的事情都会发生，我们不会回到以前的样子。”</blockquote></p><p> “Some people did better than [the U.S.],” Munger added, referring to China’s aggressive response to the virus and subsequent recovery. “They didn’t allow any contact. You picked up your groceries in a box in the apartment and that’s all the contact you had with anybody for six weeks. And, when it was all over, they kind of went back to work. It happened they did it exactly right.”</p><p><blockquote>“芒格补充说：”有些人比（美国）做得更好，他指的是中国对病毒的积极应对以及随后的复苏。“他们不允许任何接触。你在公寓的一个盒子里拿了你的杂货，这就是你六周来与任何人的全部接触。当一切结束后，他们又回去工作了。碰巧他们做得完全正确。”</blockquote></p><p> Much of the special was biographical, with Buffett and Munger reflecting on their first meeting and how their friendship-at-first-sight evolved into a decadeslong venture&nbsp;transforming the Berkshire Hathaway textile company into one of the world’s largest conglomerates.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特和芒格回顾了他们的初次见面，以及他们一见钟情如何发展成为长达数十年的合资企业，将伯克希尔-哈撒韦纺织公司转变为世界上最大的企业集团之一。</blockquote></p><p> Asked about Robinhood, Munger called the stock trading app “a gambling parlor masquerading as a respectable business.”</p><p><blockquote>当被问及 Robinhood 时，芒格称这款股票交易应用是 “伪装成体面企业的赌场”。</blockquote></p><p> “[Robinhood] is not encouraging people to buy a very, very, very low-cost index fund and hold it for 50 years,” Buffett said. “I will guarantee you that you will not walk in there, get that advice. Instead, you’ll get advice on how you can trade options.”</p><p><blockquote>“巴菲特说：”[Robinhood]并不鼓励人们购买非常、非常、非常低的指数基金并持有50年。“我保证你不会走进去，得到建议。相反，你会得到如何交易期权的建议”。</blockquote></p><p> Munger also suggested apps like Robinhood aren’t commission-free because the real costs—namely the process of&nbsp;payment for order flow—are hidden.</p><p><blockquote>芒格还表示，像 Robinhood 这样的应用程序不是免佣金的，因为真实的成本--即订单流的支付过程--是隐藏的。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s basically a sleazy, disreputable operation,” Munger said. “And the interesting thing about it is that some good people you would be glad to have marry into your family have backed it.”</p><p><blockquote>“芒格说：”这基本上是一次肮脏、声名狼藉的行动。“有趣的是，一些你很乐意嫁入你的家庭的好人支持它”。</blockquote></p><p> Reached for comment, a Robinhood spokesperson referred<i>Barron’s</i>to a May 3 statement from when Munger and Buffett previously criticized the app. “Robinhood has made investing simpler and more accessible to more people — and the public has responded. We are proud of that fact,” Jacqueline Ortiz Ramsay, head of public policy communications at Robinhood,wrote at the time.</p><p><blockquote>记者联系 Robinhood 发言人置评<i>巴伦</i>到 5 月 3 日芒格和巴菲特此前批评该应用程序时的声明。“Robinhood 让更多人更容易投资--公众也做出了回应。我们为此感到自豪，”Robinhood 公共政策传播主管杰奎琳-奥尔蒂斯-拉姆齐（Jacqueline Ortiz Ramsay）当时写道。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding the&nbsp;blow-up of&nbsp;hedge fund Archegos Capital that resulted in market volatility and major losses at several banks earlier this year, Munger called for more strict margin requirements.</p><p><blockquote>对于今年早些时候对冲基金Archegos Capital爆炸事件导致市场波动和几家银行重大损失，芒格呼吁更严格的保证金要求。</blockquote></p><p> “The people who are making money out of this unreasonable extension of credit argue for it, and nobody’s speaking against it,” Munger said. “And last time around, we got the correct regulation that came and stayed for a long time on margin debt only because we had the worst depression in the history of the English-speaking world. That’s what it took to get a little sense into the politicians.”</p><p><blockquote>“芒格说：”那些从这种不合理的信贷延期中赚钱的人都在为它辩护，没有人反对它。“上次，我们得到了正确的监管，因为我们经历了英语世界历史上最严重的萧条，所以对保证金债务进行了很长时间的监管。这就是政治家们获得一点理智的原因”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buffett-munger-zoom-robinhood-pandemic-51625020162?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buffett-munger-zoom-robinhood-pandemic-51625020162?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145186822","content_text":"Unlike his longtime friend and business partner Charlie Munger,Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett isn’t a huge fan of Zoom meetings.\n“I did it once or twice, and they had a whole screen of people. I just didn’t figure it was adding to the experience,” Buffett, 90, said in an interview with CNBC that aired Tuesday. “I find the telephone a very satisfactory instrument.”\nMunger, on the other hand, uses the service three times a day. “I think Zoom is here to stay,” Munger said. “It just adds so much convenience.”\n“Well, particularly, if you’re 97,” Buffett quipped, referring to Munger’s age.\nIn an interview with CNBC filmed from Munger’s backyard in Los Angeles after Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting in May, the pair also discussed the uneven impact of the pandemic on small businesses, their negative views of trading platform Robinhood, and the dangers of excessive margin.\nOn the impact of the pandemic, Buffett said: “I don’t know how many but many hundreds of thousands or millions of small businesses have been hurt in a terrible way. But most of the big, big companies have overwhelmingly done fine unless they happen to be in cruise lines or hotels or something.”\nMunger said he believes a lot of business travel, among other things, won’t come back following the pandemic. “A lot of people have found they don’t need to be [in an office]. I think all kinds of things are going to happen that we don’t go back to what we did before.”\n“Some people did better than [the U.S.],” Munger added, referring to China’s aggressive response to the virus and subsequent recovery. “They didn’t allow any contact. You picked up your groceries in a box in the apartment and that’s all the contact you had with anybody for six weeks. And, when it was all over, they kind of went back to work. It happened they did it exactly right.”\nMuch of the special was biographical, with Buffett and Munger reflecting on their first meeting and how their friendship-at-first-sight evolved into a decadeslong venture transforming the Berkshire Hathaway textile company into one of the world’s largest conglomerates.\nAsked about Robinhood, Munger called the stock trading app “a gambling parlor masquerading as a respectable business.”\n“[Robinhood] is not encouraging people to buy a very, very, very low-cost index fund and hold it for 50 years,” Buffett said. “I will guarantee you that you will not walk in there, get that advice. Instead, you’ll get advice on how you can trade options.”\nMunger also suggested apps like Robinhood aren’t commission-free because the real costs—namely the process of payment for order flow—are hidden.\n“It’s basically a sleazy, disreputable operation,” Munger said. “And the interesting thing about it is that some good people you would be glad to have marry into your family have backed it.”\nReached for comment, a Robinhood spokesperson referredBarron’sto a May 3 statement from when Munger and Buffett previously criticized the app. “Robinhood has made investing simpler and more accessible to more people — and the public has responded. We are proud of that fact,” Jacqueline Ortiz Ramsay, head of public policy communications at Robinhood,wrote at the time.\nRegarding the blow-up of hedge fund Archegos Capital that resulted in market volatility and major losses at several banks earlier this year, Munger called for more strict margin requirements.\n“The people who are making money out of this unreasonable extension of credit argue for it, and nobody’s speaking against it,” Munger said. “And last time around, we got the correct regulation that came and stayed for a long time on margin debt only because we had the worst depression in the history of the English-speaking world. That’s what it took to get a little sense into the politicians.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"ZM":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150543476,"gmtCreate":1624922882895,"gmtModify":1631890899805,"author":{"id":"3582094048004898","authorId":"3582094048004898","name":"idkwhatimdoi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582094048004898","idStr":"3582094048004898"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like and comment please!","listText":"like and comment please!","text":"like and comment 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