个人中心 - 老虎社区

khloo1688

IP属地：未知

帖子 · 8帖子 · 8
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- khloo1688khloo1688
  ·2021-10-24
  [财迷]
  激烈的一周！全球股市大分化，后市该如何面对？
  过去的一周，全球主要国家股市表现天壤之别，大宗商品也在经历大波动。从国外到国内，市场分化都在激烈地上演着，后期投资该如何面对？ //全球股市差异大 // 股市方面，本周（10月18日至22日），全球
  激烈的一周！全球股市大分化，后市该如何面对？
  1,762 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- khloo1688khloo1688
  ·2021-05-27
  go go go
  【异动】福特汽车涨超7%，创逾5年以来高位
  5月27日，福特汽车盘中涨超7%，创逾5年以来高位。据悉，福特汽车周三召开了资本市场日活动，其中，该公司宣布计划将电动汽车投资提升至300亿美元，并在2030年实现电动汽车销售占比40%的目标。活动过
  【异动】福特汽车涨超7%，创逾5年以来高位
  2,045 评论
  1
  分享
  举报
- khloo1688khloo1688
  ·2021-05-22
  $嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$please change directionto up😜
  1,851 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- khloo1688khloo1688
  ·2021-05-19
  学习学习
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,565 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- khloo1688khloo1688
  ·2021-05-13
  omg😰
  Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>
  I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of i
  Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>
  1,091 评论
  2
  分享
  举报
- khloo1688khloo1688
  ·2021-05-11
  $Aluminum Corporation of China(ACH)$up please
  1,675 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- khloo1688khloo1688
  ·2021-05-09
  new opportunity
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,448 评论
  1
  分享
  举报
- khloo1688khloo1688
  ·2021-05-09
  new opportunity
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,279 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3583453123593025","uuid":"3583453123593025","gmtCreate":1620359099455,"gmtModify":1620612246448,"name":"khloo1688","pinyin":"khloo1688","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ade0062ccc18f42882a5c6a5241ed6","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":3,"tweetSize":8,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":8,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.12.27","exceedPercentage":"80.42%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":858642548,"gmtCreate":1635049128685,"gmtModify":1635049128801,"author":{"id":"3583453123593025","authorId":"3583453123593025","name":"khloo1688","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ade0062ccc18f42882a5c6a5241ed6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583453123593025","idStr":"3583453123593025"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858642548","repostId":"1130212448","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130212448","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1635034868,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130212448?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-24 08:21","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"激烈的一周！全球股市大分化，后市该如何面对？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130212448","media":"Wind万得","summary":"过去的一周，全球主要国家股市表现天壤之别，大宗商品也在经历大波动。从国外到国内，市场分化都在激烈地上演着，后期投资该如何面对？\n//全球股市差异大  //\n股市方面，本周（10月18日至22日），全球","content":"<p>过去的一周，全球主要国家股市表现天壤之别，大宗商品也在经历大波动。从国外到国内，市场分化都在激烈地上演着，后期投资该如何面对？</p>\n<p><b>//全球股市差异大&nbsp; //</b></p>\n<p>股市方面，本周（10月18日至22日），全球主要国家或地区股市分化较大。Wind数据显示，<b>中国香港的恒生指数最强，一周大幅上涨3.14%遥遥领先。</b>紧随其后美股标普500、多伦多300指数、纳斯达克指数、芬兰OMX全指和道琼斯工业指周涨幅均超过1%。值得一提的是标普500、多伦多300指数以及道指都创出历史新高，表现异常的强劲。</p>\n<p>与美股等强势不同，巴西、墨西哥、俄罗斯、西班牙、英国、韩国和德国等主要股指却纷纷走低。尤其是<b>巴西IBOVESPA指数大幅下挫了7.28%，而且创出11个多月的新低。</b></p>\n<p>另外国内A股三大股指表现适中，上证指数、深成指和创业板指均以小幅上涨报收，整体涨幅在0.5%上下，虽没有美股那么强势，但也比欧洲、日韩等国家要强。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5b12d3058b63ffa654ce48112b0c18\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"1081\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>除了不同国家和地区间的差异，同一国家内部多个股指也有较大差异。如美股虽然整体较强势，但三大股指也分化加大。其中<b>标普500指数和道指已创出历史新高，而纳指离前期新高还有不小的距离，随着周五的下跌，短期创新高的可能性有望再次破灭。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f7a7c4065efc409d9ae11e19e5e979\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>而A股中外资对沪深股市追捧的差异也较大。周五北向资金再度大幅净买入131.82亿元，刷新6月25日以来新高。其中<b>净买入沪市个股达72.12亿，大幅高于深市个股59.7亿。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb8c738450032f6d354d5f132f373b5\" tg-width=\"671\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>//能源大宗商品经历大波动&nbsp; //</b></p>\n<p>本周全球大宗商品最吸人眼球的一幕莫过于<b>国内动力煤期货主力合约连续三个跌停，一周大幅下跌19.09%。</b>10月22日夜盘交易虽没有再度跌停，但依然再度大幅下跌5.35%，盘中一度跌破1300元/吨。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d9571c31b3dd887cd6f489a92eb8212\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>国内除了动力煤，能源化工方面还有焦煤、橡胶、纸浆、尿素、纯碱、玻璃等大宗期货品种也连续走低，而且部分品种已经创出近1年新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a7b1e20fcdddf7bdd2e65c07eccd07e\" tg-width=\"373\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>虽然国内不少大宗商品在纷纷下跌，但<b>全球主要能源石油、天然气等仍在不断走高。周五国际油价全线走高，美油12月合约涨1.79%报83.98美元/桶，创出7年来新高。</b>布油12月合约涨1.37%报85.77美元/桶，离2018年10月份高点86.74美元/桶仅一步之遥。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b66cfa694256c2892e3f2987f92778\" tg-width=\"374\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>//后市展望&nbsp; //</b></p>\n<p>进入四季度，疫情演变或会影响经济复苏进程，欧美央行货币政策面临调整，全球金融市场流动性面临收紧。相关市场波动和金融风险值得关注。</p>\n<p><b>股市方面：</b></p>\n<p>对冲基金经理大卫•泰珀(David Tepper)以利率和通货膨胀的不确定性为理由，开始对股市持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>“我不认为这是一个很好的投资，”泰珀说。“我只是不知道明年的利率走势会如何，我不认为现在有什么好的资产类别。”</p>\n<p>自疫情爆发以来，美联储一直将基准短期利率维持在接近零的水平。最近几周，官员们表示，他们准备开始缩减月度资产购买规模，可能从11月开始。</p>\n<p>纽约梅隆银行投资者解决方案公司的首席投资官斯蒂芬•科拉诺谈到今年标准普尔500指数上涨了20%。因此，投资者开始看到一些获利回吐。投资者首先关注的是那些跑得最快的公司，其中有很多是科技公司。”</p>\n<p>而A股方面，本周北向资金累计净买入233亿元，从历史数据来看，自2014年11月沪港通开启以来，北向资金单周流入金额超过200亿共出现过28次，本周233亿元排在历史第17位。今年5月底，北向资金单周净流入468亿元，位居历史首位。</p>\n<p>而在北向资金大幅涌入后，A股市场后市继续上涨的概率较大。Wind数据统计显示，<b>在北向资金涌入后一周，上证指数有15次上涨，12次下跌，上涨概率为56%。</b></p>\n<p>时间拉长来看，<b>涌入后一月，上证指数有18次获得正收益，上涨概率提升至67%，涨幅均值为3.62%，涨幅中位数为2.46%。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b85b888dda85f9366d9e948e53ac512\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"1409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>大宗商品方面：</b></p>\n<p>分析师仍预期能源在今年冬天有进一步上涨的空间，至少短期市场基本面是这样的。</p>\n<p>全球库存已降至疫情前的五年平均水平以下，库存正在枯竭，而在生产商对供应的反应减弱之际，需求出现反弹。<b>欧洲和亚洲的能源危机，以及创纪录的天然气和煤炭价格，为未来几个月看涨石油提供了更多理由，因为从天然气到燃料油和柴油等石油产品的转变已经开始，尤其是在亚洲。</b></p>\n<p>在需求方面，经济复苏和流动性推动了近几个月的全球石油需求上升，导致库存下降，使全球库存降至近期平均水平以下。</p>\n<p>截至本周最新报告，美国商业原油库存为4.27亿桶，较今年同期的五年平均水平低约6%。国际能源署(IEA)最新数据显示，汽油库存较五年平均水平低约2%，馏分油库存低9%，丙烷/丙烯库存较今年同期的五年平均水平低21%。</p>\n<p>IEA上周在其最新月度报告中表示，经合组织8月份的商业库存比疫情前的五年平均水平低1.62亿桶。美国、欧洲和日本的初步数据显示，9月份陆上石油库存进一步减少2,300万桶。</p>\n<p>IEA表示，<b>从全球来看，第三季度成品油余额“显示出八年来最大的缺口，</b>这解释了尽管原油价格大幅上涨，但9月份炼油利润率仍强劲增长的原因。”</p>\n<p>IEA指出，与没有天然气和煤炭紧缺的“正常”市场相比，欧洲和亚洲的能源危机可能使全球石油需求增加50万桶/天，并提高了2021年和2022年的全球石油需求预测。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>激烈的一周！全球股市大分化，后市该如何面对？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n激烈的一周！全球股市大分化，后市该如何面对？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-24 08:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>过去的一周，全球主要国家股市表现天壤之别，大宗商品也在经历大波动。从国外到国内，市场分化都在激烈地上演着，后期投资该如何面对？</p>\n<p><b>//全球股市差异大&nbsp; //</b></p>\n<p>股市方面，本周（10月18日至22日），全球主要国家或地区股市分化较大。Wind数据显示，<b>中国香港的恒生指数最强，一周大幅上涨3.14%遥遥领先。</b>紧随其后美股标普500、多伦多300指数、纳斯达克指数、芬兰OMX全指和道琼斯工业指周涨幅均超过1%。值得一提的是标普500、多伦多300指数以及道指都创出历史新高，表现异常的强劲。</p>\n<p>与美股等强势不同，巴西、墨西哥、俄罗斯、西班牙、英国、韩国和德国等主要股指却纷纷走低。尤其是<b>巴西IBOVESPA指数大幅下挫了7.28%，而且创出11个多月的新低。</b></p>\n<p>另外国内A股三大股指表现适中，上证指数、深成指和创业板指均以小幅上涨报收，整体涨幅在0.5%上下，虽没有美股那么强势，但也比欧洲、日韩等国家要强。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5b12d3058b63ffa654ce48112b0c18\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"1081\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>除了不同国家和地区间的差异，同一国家内部多个股指也有较大差异。如美股虽然整体较强势，但三大股指也分化加大。其中<b>标普500指数和道指已创出历史新高，而纳指离前期新高还有不小的距离，随着周五的下跌，短期创新高的可能性有望再次破灭。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f7a7c4065efc409d9ae11e19e5e979\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>而A股中外资对沪深股市追捧的差异也较大。周五北向资金再度大幅净买入131.82亿元，刷新6月25日以来新高。其中<b>净买入沪市个股达72.12亿，大幅高于深市个股59.7亿。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb8c738450032f6d354d5f132f373b5\" tg-width=\"671\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>//能源大宗商品经历大波动&nbsp; //</b></p>\n<p>本周全球大宗商品最吸人眼球的一幕莫过于<b>国内动力煤期货主力合约连续三个跌停，一周大幅下跌19.09%。</b>10月22日夜盘交易虽没有再度跌停，但依然再度大幅下跌5.35%，盘中一度跌破1300元/吨。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d9571c31b3dd887cd6f489a92eb8212\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>国内除了动力煤，能源化工方面还有焦煤、橡胶、纸浆、尿素、纯碱、玻璃等大宗期货品种也连续走低，而且部分品种已经创出近1年新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a7b1e20fcdddf7bdd2e65c07eccd07e\" tg-width=\"373\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>虽然国内不少大宗商品在纷纷下跌，但<b>全球主要能源石油、天然气等仍在不断走高。周五国际油价全线走高，美油12月合约涨1.79%报83.98美元/桶，创出7年来新高。</b>布油12月合约涨1.37%报85.77美元/桶，离2018年10月份高点86.74美元/桶仅一步之遥。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b66cfa694256c2892e3f2987f92778\" tg-width=\"374\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>//后市展望&nbsp; //</b></p>\n<p>进入四季度，疫情演变或会影响经济复苏进程，欧美央行货币政策面临调整，全球金融市场流动性面临收紧。相关市场波动和金融风险值得关注。</p>\n<p><b>股市方面：</b></p>\n<p>对冲基金经理大卫•泰珀(David Tepper)以利率和通货膨胀的不确定性为理由，开始对股市持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>“我不认为这是一个很好的投资，”泰珀说。“我只是不知道明年的利率走势会如何，我不认为现在有什么好的资产类别。”</p>\n<p>自疫情爆发以来，美联储一直将基准短期利率维持在接近零的水平。最近几周，官员们表示，他们准备开始缩减月度资产购买规模，可能从11月开始。</p>\n<p>纽约梅隆银行投资者解决方案公司的首席投资官斯蒂芬•科拉诺谈到今年标准普尔500指数上涨了20%。因此，投资者开始看到一些获利回吐。投资者首先关注的是那些跑得最快的公司，其中有很多是科技公司。”</p>\n<p>而A股方面，本周北向资金累计净买入233亿元，从历史数据来看，自2014年11月沪港通开启以来，北向资金单周流入金额超过200亿共出现过28次，本周233亿元排在历史第17位。今年5月底，北向资金单周净流入468亿元，位居历史首位。</p>\n<p>而在北向资金大幅涌入后，A股市场后市继续上涨的概率较大。Wind数据统计显示，<b>在北向资金涌入后一周，上证指数有15次上涨，12次下跌，上涨概率为56%。</b></p>\n<p>时间拉长来看，<b>涌入后一月，上证指数有18次获得正收益，上涨概率提升至67%，涨幅均值为3.62%，涨幅中位数为2.46%。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b85b888dda85f9366d9e948e53ac512\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"1409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>大宗商品方面：</b></p>\n<p>分析师仍预期能源在今年冬天有进一步上涨的空间，至少短期市场基本面是这样的。</p>\n<p>全球库存已降至疫情前的五年平均水平以下，库存正在枯竭，而在生产商对供应的反应减弱之际，需求出现反弹。<b>欧洲和亚洲的能源危机，以及创纪录的天然气和煤炭价格，为未来几个月看涨石油提供了更多理由，因为从天然气到燃料油和柴油等石油产品的转变已经开始，尤其是在亚洲。</b></p>\n<p>在需求方面，经济复苏和流动性推动了近几个月的全球石油需求上升，导致库存下降，使全球库存降至近期平均水平以下。</p>\n<p>截至本周最新报告，美国商业原油库存为4.27亿桶，较今年同期的五年平均水平低约6%。国际能源署(IEA)最新数据显示，汽油库存较五年平均水平低约2%，馏分油库存低9%，丙烷/丙烯库存较今年同期的五年平均水平低21%。</p>\n<p>IEA上周在其最新月度报告中表示，经合组织8月份的商业库存比疫情前的五年平均水平低1.62亿桶。美国、欧洲和日本的初步数据显示，9月份陆上石油库存进一步减少2,300万桶。</p>\n<p>IEA表示，<b>从全球来看，第三季度成品油余额“显示出八年来最大的缺口，</b>这解释了尽管原油价格大幅上涨，但9月份炼油利润率仍强劲增长的原因。”</p>\n<p>IEA指出，与没有天然气和煤炭紧缺的“正常”市场相比，欧洲和亚洲的能源危机可能使全球石油需求增加50万桶/天，并提高了2021年和2022年的全球石油需求预测。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130212448","content_text":"过去的一周，全球主要国家股市表现天壤之别，大宗商品也在经历大波动。从国外到国内，市场分化都在激烈地上演着，后期投资该如何面对？\n//全球股市差异大  //\n股市方面，本周（10月18日至22日），全球主要国家或地区股市分化较大。Wind数据显示，中国香港的恒生指数最强，一周大幅上涨3.14%遥遥领先。紧随其后美股标普500、多伦多300指数、纳斯达克指数、芬兰OMX全指和道琼斯工业指周涨幅均超过1%。值得一提的是标普500、多伦多300指数以及道指都创出历史新高，表现异常的强劲。\n与美股等强势不同，巴西、墨西哥、俄罗斯、西班牙、英国、韩国和德国等主要股指却纷纷走低。尤其是巴西IBOVESPA指数大幅下挫了7.28%，而且创出11个多月的新低。\n另外国内A股三大股指表现适中，上证指数、深成指和创业板指均以小幅上涨报收，整体涨幅在0.5%上下，虽没有美股那么强势，但也比欧洲、日韩等国家要强。\n\n除了不同国家和地区间的差异，同一国家内部多个股指也有较大差异。如美股虽然整体较强势，但三大股指也分化加大。其中标普500指数和道指已创出历史新高，而纳指离前期新高还有不小的距离，随着周五的下跌，短期创新高的可能性有望再次破灭。\n\n而A股中外资对沪深股市追捧的差异也较大。周五北向资金再度大幅净买入131.82亿元，刷新6月25日以来新高。其中净买入沪市个股达72.12亿，大幅高于深市个股59.7亿。\n\n//能源大宗商品经历大波动  //\n本周全球大宗商品最吸人眼球的一幕莫过于国内动力煤期货主力合约连续三个跌停，一周大幅下跌19.09%。10月22日夜盘交易虽没有再度跌停，但依然再度大幅下跌5.35%，盘中一度跌破1300元/吨。\n\n国内除了动力煤，能源化工方面还有焦煤、橡胶、纸浆、尿素、纯碱、玻璃等大宗期货品种也连续走低，而且部分品种已经创出近1年新低。\n\n虽然国内不少大宗商品在纷纷下跌，但全球主要能源石油、天然气等仍在不断走高。周五国际油价全线走高，美油12月合约涨1.79%报83.98美元/桶，创出7年来新高。布油12月合约涨1.37%报85.77美元/桶，离2018年10月份高点86.74美元/桶仅一步之遥。\n\n//后市展望  //\n进入四季度，疫情演变或会影响经济复苏进程，欧美央行货币政策面临调整，全球金融市场流动性面临收紧。相关市场波动和金融风险值得关注。\n股市方面：\n对冲基金经理大卫•泰珀(David Tepper)以利率和通货膨胀的不确定性为理由，开始对股市持谨慎态度。\n“我不认为这是一个很好的投资，”泰珀说。“我只是不知道明年的利率走势会如何，我不认为现在有什么好的资产类别。”\n自疫情爆发以来，美联储一直将基准短期利率维持在接近零的水平。最近几周，官员们表示，他们准备开始缩减月度资产购买规模，可能从11月开始。\n纽约梅隆银行投资者解决方案公司的首席投资官斯蒂芬•科拉诺谈到今年标准普尔500指数上涨了20%。因此，投资者开始看到一些获利回吐。投资者首先关注的是那些跑得最快的公司，其中有很多是科技公司。”\n而A股方面，本周北向资金累计净买入233亿元，从历史数据来看，自2014年11月沪港通开启以来，北向资金单周流入金额超过200亿共出现过28次，本周233亿元排在历史第17位。今年5月底，北向资金单周净流入468亿元，位居历史首位。\n而在北向资金大幅涌入后，A股市场后市继续上涨的概率较大。Wind数据统计显示，在北向资金涌入后一周，上证指数有15次上涨，12次下跌，上涨概率为56%。\n时间拉长来看，涌入后一月，上证指数有18次获得正收益，上涨概率提升至67%，涨幅均值为3.62%，涨幅中位数为2.46%。\n\n大宗商品方面：\n分析师仍预期能源在今年冬天有进一步上涨的空间，至少短期市场基本面是这样的。\n全球库存已降至疫情前的五年平均水平以下，库存正在枯竭，而在生产商对供应的反应减弱之际，需求出现反弹。欧洲和亚洲的能源危机，以及创纪录的天然气和煤炭价格，为未来几个月看涨石油提供了更多理由，因为从天然气到燃料油和柴油等石油产品的转变已经开始，尤其是在亚洲。\n在需求方面，经济复苏和流动性推动了近几个月的全球石油需求上升，导致库存下降，使全球库存降至近期平均水平以下。\n截至本周最新报告，美国商业原油库存为4.27亿桶，较今年同期的五年平均水平低约6%。国际能源署(IEA)最新数据显示，汽油库存较五年平均水平低约2%，馏分油库存低9%，丙烷/丙烯库存较今年同期的五年平均水平低21%。\nIEA上周在其最新月度报告中表示，经合组织8月份的商业库存比疫情前的五年平均水平低1.62亿桶。美国、欧洲和日本的初步数据显示，9月份陆上石油库存进一步减少2,300万桶。\nIEA表示，从全球来看，第三季度成品油余额“显示出八年来最大的缺口，这解释了尽管原油价格大幅上涨，但9月份炼油利润率仍强劲增长的原因。”\nIEA指出，与没有天然气和煤炭紧缺的“正常”市场相比，欧洲和亚洲的能源危机可能使全球石油需求增加50万桶/天，并提高了2021年和2022年的全球石油需求预测。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135944258,"gmtCreate":1622128376874,"gmtModify":1634183586568,"author":{"id":"3583453123593025","authorId":"3583453123593025","name":"khloo1688","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ade0062ccc18f42882a5c6a5241ed6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583453123593025","idStr":"3583453123593025"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"go go go","listText":"go go go","text":"go go go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135944258","repostId":"1175245667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175245667","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622126665,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175245667?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-27 22:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【异动】福特汽车涨超7%，创逾5年以来高位","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175245667","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日，福特汽车盘中涨超7%，创逾5年以来高位。据悉，福特汽车周三召开了资本市场日活动，其中，该公司宣布计划将电动汽车投资提升至300亿美元，并在2030年实现电动汽车销售占比40%的目标。活动过","content":"<p>5月27日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>盘中涨超7%，创逾5年以来高位。据悉，福特汽车周三召开了资本市场日活动，其中，该公司宣布计划将电动汽车投资提升至300亿美元，并在2030年实现电动汽车销售占比40%的目标。</p><p>活动过后，多家投行表示看好福特汽车，其中，Jefferies维持该股“买入”评级，目标价16美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18319ad0601996473ce89be723512b28\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【异动】福特汽车涨超7%，创逾5年以来高位</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【异动】福特汽车涨超7%，创逾5年以来高位\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-27 22:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>5月27日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>盘中涨超7%，创逾5年以来高位。据悉，福特汽车周三召开了资本市场日活动，其中，该公司宣布计划将电动汽车投资提升至300亿美元，并在2030年实现电动汽车销售占比40%的目标。</p><p>活动过后，多家投行表示看好福特汽车，其中，Jefferies维持该股“买入”评级，目标价16美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18319ad0601996473ce89be723512b28\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f27c1c8aa54c63bbf415c36a2121f812","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175245667","content_text":"5月27日，福特汽车盘中涨超7%，创逾5年以来高位。据悉，福特汽车周三召开了资本市场日活动，其中，该公司宣布计划将电动汽车投资提升至300亿美元，并在2030年实现电动汽车销售占比40%的目标。活动过后，多家投行表示看好福特汽车，其中，Jefferies维持该股“买入”评级，目标价16美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139267617,"gmtCreate":1621639395139,"gmtModify":1631886914611,"author":{"id":"3583453123593025","authorId":"3583453123593025","name":"khloo1688","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ade0062ccc18f42882a5c6a5241ed6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583453123593025","idStr":"3583453123593025"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$</a>please change directionto up😜","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$</a>please change directionto up😜","text":"$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$please change directionto up😜","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5145948d958303ecde2ad001d92fc58","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139267617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197367861,"gmtCreate":1621429956253,"gmtModify":1634189237241,"author":{"id":"3583453123593025","authorId":"3583453123593025","name":"khloo1688","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ade0062ccc18f42882a5c6a5241ed6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583453123593025","idStr":"3583453123593025"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"学习学习","listText":"学习学习","text":"学习学习","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197367861","repostId":"1169088093","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191549224,"gmtCreate":1620893600668,"gmtModify":1634195501512,"author":{"id":"3583453123593025","authorId":"3583453123593025","name":"khloo1688","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ade0062ccc18f42882a5c6a5241ed6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583453123593025","idStr":"3583453123593025"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"omg😰","listText":"omg😰","text":"omg😰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191549224","repostId":"1134419676","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134419676","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620892887,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134419676?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-13 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134419676","media":"zerohedge","summary":"I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of i","content":"<p>I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说在通货膨胀完全到来之前，没有其他方法可以做到这一点，只是说，如果其他方法都做不到，我一直在写的那种通货膨胀肯定会做到这一点。这就是让市场感到恐惧的原因，这可能不是一些投资者首先想到的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.</p><p><blockquote>许多人都在谈论投资股票的 “风险溢价”。随着通货膨胀上升，债券收益率上升以抵消通货膨胀造成的损失。随着债券收益率上升，股票的竞争力下降。</blockquote></p><p>That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.</p><p><blockquote>这是个问题，但不是大问题。这次不行。</blockquote></p><p>The big&nbsp;problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是，我们都知道股票的资金来源——美联储和美国政府通过借入和分配美联储印制的货币。所以，最大的问题是美联储。</blockquote></p><p><b>Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储陷入了自己造成的混乱</b></blockquote></p><p>Having made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.</p><p><blockquote>美联储已经证明高通胀已成定局，用不了多久，美联储就会陷入一个陷阱：它需要继续创造货币，以保持市场上涨并继续刺激经济，但它将无法做到这一点。这就是为什么我们现在不断听到美联储在谈论通货膨胀是 “短暂的”。美联储需要让所有投资者相信通货膨胀迅速出现的时期将是短暂的，因此可以忽略不计。美联储需要市场相信它能够并且将会继续印钞。</blockquote></p><p>However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储只是在自欺欺人。它声称通货膨胀是暂时的，以便可以忽略快速增长的数字，通货膨胀就会越失控，因为美联储和联邦政府继续印钞和运输货币的装甲车昼夜不停地行驶。（当然，这是比喻。）</blockquote></p><p>The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会欺骗自己（和我们）的长期伤害，但它不太可能欺骗市场太久，因为这些数字将变得太高，市场无法忽视。周三，我们从市场对多年来最高通胀率消息的反应中看到了这一点--4 月份的年化通胀率为 4.2%，远低于我们今年夏天即将看到的通胀率水平。这只是球场的收尾。</blockquote></p><p><b>How inflation will fight the Fed and win</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀将如何对抗美联储并取得胜利</b></blockquote></p><p>The danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀带来的危险是，如果它上升到我确信它会上涨的高度（两位数），那么美联储将被迫提高利率目标，因为市场无论如何都会推高利率，使美联储看起来很愚蠢，因为它声称利率目标是它无法持有的。美联储将无法在不通过创造新货币造成更大通胀的情况下不惜一切代价压低利率。</blockquote></p><p>However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不仅仅是债券义务警员将从美联储手中夺走利率控制权，股市还将迫使美联储应对通货膨胀，因为无论美联储是否表示应该这样做。消费者还将向国会施压，要求美联储应对通货膨胀。拖延的时间越长，美联储就必须大幅提高利率，就像保罗-沃尔克（Paul Volker）在 80 年代为控制通胀所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p>This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.</p><p><blockquote>在股市处于荒谬危险的高度之际，这个难题现在开始成为现实。对通货膨胀的模糊认识不再那么模糊，这就是为什么市场正在耗尽动力。投资者开始相信美联储将失去对利率的控制。投资者开始怀疑美联储的信心。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>当然，要崩盘，势头必须向下，而在市场确信美联储将失去控制之前，这种情况不太可能发生；但这种情况一开始可能会缓慢发生，然后像 2018 年那样迅速发生。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀是美联储背上的一颗定时炸弹。我的论点是，现在每个月，美联储都会发现越来越难维持一种幻觉，即它可以继续创造货币，通过政府刺激计划（应政府要求）将货币注入夫妻俩投资者（散户投资者、罗宾汉人群等）手中，并继续试图保持低利率，通过贷款资助的公司股票回购将资金注入股市。通货膨胀将压垮宽松货币。它统治。美联储可以控制它，但只能通过拿走资金并摧毁完全依赖资金的市场。</blockquote></p><p>The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The&nbsp;<i>real</i>&nbsp;fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.</p><p><blockquote>盘子旋转器开始失去对所有盘子的控制，它必须在小棒的末端保持旋转。今天的市场走势表明，随着通胀比投资者担心的更糟糕，市场开始关注板块下跌的声音。这个<i>真的</i>恐惧——直到现在才被预示的深度瘫痪恐惧——不是来自债券收益率上升的竞争（这肯定会到来），而是通胀将变得足够热，以至于美联储将被迫关闭所有的动力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀有能力突然改变市场情绪，因为，嗯，跟随资金回到它的来源。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. <i>MarketWatch</i>Inflation jitters will become inflation&nbsp;<i>panic</i>&nbsp;when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.</p><p><blockquote>一份报告显示，随着新冠疫情的复苏，截至 4 月份的一年中，美国通胀率以约 13 年来最快的速度上升，通胀担忧再次蔓延，股市大幅走低。<i>市场观察</i>通货膨胀恐慌将变成通货膨胀<i>恐慌</i>当人们清楚地认识到，升至 4.2 不仅仅是昙花一现，而是未来许多步骤中消费者方面的第一步时。希望我的读者都没有太关注那些预测只有3.6%的经济学家。</blockquote></p><p>“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.&nbsp; <b><i>But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.</i></b>”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀摧毁财富。Incapital 交易主管帕特里克-利里（Patrick Leary）在接受 MarketWatch 采访时说：”通货膨胀摧毁财富。“我们看到通货膨胀出现在市场上。如果通货膨胀确实是暂时的，市场就能忍受通货膨胀。<b><i>但如果不是暂时的，那就会成为股市的麻烦。</i></b>“财富的毁灭是一个问题，但我认为，更大的问题是亚马逊规模的轻松资金流入市场的流失。这就是为什么当就业报告真的很糟糕时，市场上涨了。就业放缓的报告缓解了对通胀的担忧，导致美联储关闭了这一流动。这就是为什么市场今天因与许多人预期相反的可靠消息而暴跌。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten,<i>&nbsp;regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.</i></p><p><blockquote>美联储的手可能很快就会被现实所迫；如果你一直在阅读这里--尤其是《赞助人》中那些重点关注通货膨胀的帖子，你就会对即将发生的事情有一个很好的了解。然而，人们不必等到美联储收紧货币政策才能阻止通货膨胀；人们只需等到股票投资者确信美联储将不得不收紧货币政策，<i>无论美联储声称向投资者保证什么，它都不会。</i></blockquote></p><p>As&nbsp;<i>MarketWatch</i>&nbsp;noted yesterday,</p><p><blockquote>作为<i>市场观察</i>昨天指出，</blockquote></p><p>Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,&nbsp; <b><i>as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.</i></b>&nbsp;After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear&nbsp; <b><i>Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.</i></b>The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.</p><p><blockquote>周二股市看起来很危险，尤其是科技领域，<b><i>随着通胀紧张情绪继续波及整个市场。由于担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束因 COVID-19 大流行病而采取的宽松立场，该行业一直首当其冲。</i></b>继上周就业意外之后，一些人感到担忧<b><i>周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重冲击。</i></b>市场在自己的负担下不堪重负和紧张，以至于如果它仅仅相信美联储将被迫收紧货币政策，它就会崩溃。这就是为什么它今天会像预震一样震动，但如果你一直在阅读这里的内容，那就一点也不震动了。这是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Inflation is the “</i></b> <b>worst-case</b> <b><i>&nbsp;scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors,</i></b>&nbsp;warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the&nbsp;<i>key</i>:</p><p><blockquote><b><i>通货膨胀是“</i></b><b>最坏情况</b><b><i>对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场，</i></b>Stock Traders Daily 总裁兼首席执行官兼 Equity Logic 投资组合经理 Thomas H. Kee Jr. 警告我们今天的看涨期权。这是<i>钥匙</i>:</blockquote></p><p>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.&nbsp; <b><i>If inflation comes back,</i></b> <b>all</b> <b><i>&nbsp;of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be</i></b> <b>able</b> <b><i>&nbsp;to come back to save the day</i></b>,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and <b><i>&nbsp;if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen</i></b>&nbsp;either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ <b><i>When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!</i></b>”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed&nbsp;<i>wants</i>&nbsp;higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.</p><p><blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施之所以成为可能，唯一的原因就是没有通货膨胀。<b><i>如果通货膨胀再次出现，</i></b><b>全部</b><b><i>投资者获得的保障措施（刺激措施带来的免费资金）将被取消，并且不会……</i></b><b>能</b><b><i>回来拯救世界</i></b>Kee告诉MarketWatch……他说，最近的就业数据确实表明，物价上涨将“比之前想象的更严重……”。“降幅可能比25%严重得多，<b><i>如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因通货膨胀而被束缚，投资者习以为常的快速反弹将不会发生</i></b>基说。“SPX SPX (^GSPC) 的公允价值倍数不是 30 倍，而是 35 倍。更像是 15 倍.”投资者对自然风险意识的回归--而目前这种意识严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划正在全面发挥作用，投资者根本感觉不到任何风险。这才是最危险的!”基说……”<b><i>当大买家不在的时候…那就是对风险的自然感知回来的时候，如果发生这种情况…小心下面!!</i></b>“你看，不断上升的通货膨胀有能力让美联储屈服。我一直在写的那种通货膨胀会让美联储失去魔力，这就是为什么鲍威尔已经在竭尽全力让金融市场相信美联储<i>想要</i>更高的通胀，并让他们相信它想要的更高通胀在开始之前是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Market susceptibility</p><p><blockquote>市场敏感性</blockquote></p><p>Notes Lance Roberts,</p><p><blockquote>兰斯·罗伯茨指出，</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b><i>There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market,</i></b>&nbsp;but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” <i>Seeking Alpha</i>How much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?</p><p><blockquote><b><i>这轮牛市不可能不会以非常糟糕的方式结束。我们都知道这是这个流动性驱动的市场的现实，</i></b>但我们继续投资是为了 “害怕错过 ”。<i>寻求阿尔法</i>美联储和联储涌入市场的所有刺激资金究竟创造了多少现金流，使去年的疯狂成为可能？</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.</p><p><blockquote>过去5个月，流入股市的资金比过去12年的总和还要多。算一算，问问自己，如果因为通货膨胀迫使美联储在商品太少的环境下停止创造太多的新货币，而不得不关闭货币，会发生什么，因为之前的 COVID 关闭短缺以及它们造成的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p>And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):</p><p><blockquote>而且，如果你不认为市场在轻松货币的推动下岌岌可危，那就看看保证金债务（欠经纪人的钱）上涨了多少：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca87d635f36dfaa1c989d7e459550d1\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>When the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储面临加息和停止印钞的巨大压力时，经纪人在放贷时就不会那么自由了。目前，几乎免费的利率很容易赚钱。不过，更重要的是，当市场因担心美联储切断宽松货币而开始下跌时，随着人们被迫出售资产并减少保证金债务，所有保证金债务都开始匆忙解除。</blockquote></p><p>As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，像这样的市场债务的巨大、快速飙升往往发生在严重崩溃之前：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff13864e0443e2a448952529cdf6e2c\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>In the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.</p><p><blockquote>短期来看，基本面并不重要。然而，从长远来看，它们非常重要。情绪可能会导致投资者在很长一段时间内忽视经济基本面，但在高利润率债务环境下，对长期被忽视的基本面看法的突然改变会导致人们的参照系迅速修正。</blockquote></p><p>Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.</p><p><blockquote>目前，投资者忽视了基本面，预期经济和盈利将改善，以证明市场高估是合理的。这不太可能发生。即使确实如此，从今天的冲击来看，大多数圈子里对金融格局（货币的核心价值）的看法也过于乐观；但你可以在一年后看到这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的言论就好像它仍然看不到未来会发生什么，但这正是美联储谈论紧缩政策将有多容易。它似乎并不知道自己没有一个不会导致市场情绪急剧下跌并导致市场崩溃的退出计划。然而，这一点，也可以被那些没有在美德神父脚下敬拜的人看到。</blockquote></p><p>When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&amp;P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>当或如果复苏预期落空，市场将开始重新定价其内在价值。鉴于市场目前的交易价格是潜在经济增长水平的两倍多，而潜在经济增长是企业利润的来源，这表明存在重大风险。这就是为什么道琼斯指数今天下跌 682 点（2%），标准普尔指数下跌 2.14%，纳斯达克指数下跌 368 点（2.67%）。股票中没有太多的安全空间。</blockquote></p><p>Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.</p><p><blockquote>别告诉我通货膨胀对这个市场无关紧要。六个月来最糟糕的一天。更多详情请见另一篇赞助人帖子。</blockquote></p><p>Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我再一次做我所说的此时必不可少的纠正性报告。首先，假新闻：</blockquote></p><p>One big reason for the acceleration was&nbsp; <i>base effects</i>&nbsp;– at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,</p><p><blockquote>加速的一个重要原因是<i>基底效应</i>- 一年前的这个时候，经济受到了科维德大流行病最严重的打击，通货膨胀率异常低。正如我在上一篇赞助人帖子中所说，我还列出了支持我声明的统计数据和来源，</blockquote></p><p>Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:</p><p><blockquote>尽管有疫情，食品价格和许多其他价格像去年3月一样上涨。事实上，在 3 月份之后，它们的涨幅比正常水平更差，2020 年剩余时间里，每个月的年化涨幅都在 3.5% 到 4% 之间。“通胀海啸警报正在尖叫!”我特别注意到一位经济学家说，食品杂货和燃料现在刚刚弥补了上一次的涨幅：</blockquote></p><p>So,&nbsp; <i>like groceries,</i>&nbsp;gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that&nbsp;<i>fuel</i>&nbsp;prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but&nbsp;<i>groceries</i>? Come on!</p><p><blockquote>所以，<i>比如杂货，</i>天然气正在赶上，回到我们实际期望的地方…去年主要发生的事情是<i>燃料</i>由于没有运输任何东西，缺乏假期和通勤，价格暴跌，但是<i>杂货</i>?快点!</blockquote></p><p></p><p>“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.<b><i>So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of facts</i></b><b>if</b><b><i>&nbsp;the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>如果你回顾一下 2018 年的汽油价格，“迎头赶上 ”可能是真的，但当你在评论中拥抱杂货时，这完全是马粪。杂货店什么都赶不上。2020年全年食品的平均通货膨胀率为3.4%，而2011年之前每年的平均通货膨胀率为0.3%-2.5%。3.6%。虽然去年4月至6月的总体通胀率低于正常水平，但这与今年有什么关系？【总体】去年价格仍在上涨；因此，这并不是说你在与一个异常的年份进行比较，因为在那几个月里，整体价格都在下跌，这意味着今年的部分涨幅只是弥补了去年不寻常的损失。然后你可以如实地说有一个基数效应。<b><i>因此，通胀的到来比美联储让人们相信的要快得多；而且，正如我最近的赞助人帖子所说，生产者方面已经酝酿了更多的通货膨胀，这些通货膨胀肯定会被传递出去。我注意到你可以期待看到这一点现在开始出现在消费者方面，而你确实做到了。这将是一个通胀高涨的夏天，这可能会影响市场情绪，因此股市不会对此感到满意。可以肯定的是，无论如何，仍有大量的睾丸激素决心推高股票，但炎热潮湿的夏天将削弱这种情绪，就像今天一样；无论图表读者根据当前的情绪趋势做出什么预测，它都将继续改变它。面对事实，趋势可能会迅速改变</i></b><b>如果</b><b><i>事实以足够的活力撞击。我认为，高通胀是一个令人担忧的事实，它可能会阻止美联储的计划向前推进。</i></b></blockquote></p><p>If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储确实继续以同样的盲目无知和顽固决心证明自己是正确的，这导致它继续推行经济紧缩制度（正如我在2018年声称的那样，它会这样做太久，与良好的判断相反），它真的会让事情变得更糟，更难驯服。我认为这并非不可能。</blockquote></p><p>“ <b><i>There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,</i></b>” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,</p><p><blockquote>“<b><i>有些人认为美联储不仅落后于曲线，他们可能没有抓住要点，当他们开始追赶时，已经太晚了、</i></b>华尔街资深人士阿特·卡申周三在接受CNBC采访时表示，</blockquote></p><p>“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.&nbsp; <b><i>“It’s just that there’s a</i></b> <b>lot more</b> <b><i>&nbsp;‘transitory’ than they were expecting.</i></b>”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?</p><p><blockquote>“凯投宏观（Capital Economics）美国高级经济学家迈克尔-皮尔斯（Michael Pearce）写道：”我们怀疑这份报告是否会改变官员们的观点，即通胀压力'在很大程度上是暂时的'。<b><i>“只是有一个</i></b><b>更多</b><b><i>比他们预期的要'短暂'。</i></b>“CNBC确实。更多。当他们用完了一个假的基地效应来指责它时，他们会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p>Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!</p><p><blockquote>喜欢吗？花点时间在Patreon上支持大卫·哈吉斯!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 16:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说在通货膨胀完全到来之前，没有其他方法可以做到这一点，只是说，如果其他方法都做不到，我一直在写的那种通货膨胀肯定会做到这一点。这就是让市场感到恐惧的原因，这可能不是一些投资者首先想到的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.</p><p><blockquote>许多人都在谈论投资股票的 “风险溢价”。随着通货膨胀上升，债券收益率上升以抵消通货膨胀造成的损失。随着债券收益率上升，股票的竞争力下降。</blockquote></p><p>That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.</p><p><blockquote>这是个问题，但不是大问题。这次不行。</blockquote></p><p>The big&nbsp;problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是，我们都知道股票的资金来源——美联储和美国政府通过借入和分配美联储印制的货币。所以，最大的问题是美联储。</blockquote></p><p><b>Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储陷入了自己造成的混乱</b></blockquote></p><p>Having made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.</p><p><blockquote>美联储已经证明高通胀已成定局，用不了多久，美联储就会陷入一个陷阱：它需要继续创造货币，以保持市场上涨并继续刺激经济，但它将无法做到这一点。这就是为什么我们现在不断听到美联储在谈论通货膨胀是 “短暂的”。美联储需要让所有投资者相信通货膨胀迅速出现的时期将是短暂的，因此可以忽略不计。美联储需要市场相信它能够并且将会继续印钞。</blockquote></p><p>However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储只是在自欺欺人。它声称通货膨胀是暂时的，以便可以忽略快速增长的数字，通货膨胀就会越失控，因为美联储和联邦政府继续印钞和运输货币的装甲车昼夜不停地行驶。（当然，这是比喻。）</blockquote></p><p>The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会欺骗自己（和我们）的长期伤害，但它不太可能欺骗市场太久，因为这些数字将变得太高，市场无法忽视。周三，我们从市场对多年来最高通胀率消息的反应中看到了这一点--4 月份的年化通胀率为 4.2%，远低于我们今年夏天即将看到的通胀率水平。这只是球场的收尾。</blockquote></p><p><b>How inflation will fight the Fed and win</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀将如何对抗美联储并取得胜利</b></blockquote></p><p>The danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀带来的危险是，如果它上升到我确信它会上涨的高度（两位数），那么美联储将被迫提高利率目标，因为市场无论如何都会推高利率，使美联储看起来很愚蠢，因为它声称利率目标是它无法持有的。美联储将无法在不通过创造新货币造成更大通胀的情况下不惜一切代价压低利率。</blockquote></p><p>However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不仅仅是债券义务警员将从美联储手中夺走利率控制权，股市还将迫使美联储应对通货膨胀，因为无论美联储是否表示应该这样做。消费者还将向国会施压，要求美联储应对通货膨胀。拖延的时间越长，美联储就必须大幅提高利率，就像保罗-沃尔克（Paul Volker）在 80 年代为控制通胀所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p>This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.</p><p><blockquote>在股市处于荒谬危险的高度之际，这个难题现在开始成为现实。对通货膨胀的模糊认识不再那么模糊，这就是为什么市场正在耗尽动力。投资者开始相信美联储将失去对利率的控制。投资者开始怀疑美联储的信心。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>当然，要崩盘，势头必须向下，而在市场确信美联储将失去控制之前，这种情况不太可能发生；但这种情况一开始可能会缓慢发生，然后像 2018 年那样迅速发生。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀是美联储背上的一颗定时炸弹。我的论点是，现在每个月，美联储都会发现越来越难维持一种幻觉，即它可以继续创造货币，通过政府刺激计划（应政府要求）将货币注入夫妻俩投资者（散户投资者、罗宾汉人群等）手中，并继续试图保持低利率，通过贷款资助的公司股票回购将资金注入股市。通货膨胀将压垮宽松货币。它统治。美联储可以控制它，但只能通过拿走资金并摧毁完全依赖资金的市场。</blockquote></p><p>The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The&nbsp;<i>real</i>&nbsp;fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.</p><p><blockquote>盘子旋转器开始失去对所有盘子的控制，它必须在小棒的末端保持旋转。今天的市场走势表明，随着通胀比投资者担心的更糟糕，市场开始关注板块下跌的声音。这个<i>真的</i>恐惧——直到现在才被预示的深度瘫痪恐惧——不是来自债券收益率上升的竞争（这肯定会到来），而是通胀将变得足够热，以至于美联储将被迫关闭所有的动力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀有能力突然改变市场情绪，因为，嗯，跟随资金回到它的来源。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. <i>MarketWatch</i>Inflation jitters will become inflation&nbsp;<i>panic</i>&nbsp;when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.</p><p><blockquote>一份报告显示，随着新冠疫情的复苏，截至 4 月份的一年中，美国通胀率以约 13 年来最快的速度上升，通胀担忧再次蔓延，股市大幅走低。<i>市场观察</i>通货膨胀恐慌将变成通货膨胀<i>恐慌</i>当人们清楚地认识到，升至 4.2 不仅仅是昙花一现，而是未来许多步骤中消费者方面的第一步时。希望我的读者都没有太关注那些预测只有3.6%的经济学家。</blockquote></p><p>“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.&nbsp; <b><i>But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.</i></b>”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀摧毁财富。Incapital 交易主管帕特里克-利里（Patrick Leary）在接受 MarketWatch 采访时说：”通货膨胀摧毁财富。“我们看到通货膨胀出现在市场上。如果通货膨胀确实是暂时的，市场就能忍受通货膨胀。<b><i>但如果不是暂时的，那就会成为股市的麻烦。</i></b>“财富的毁灭是一个问题，但我认为，更大的问题是亚马逊规模的轻松资金流入市场的流失。这就是为什么当就业报告真的很糟糕时，市场上涨了。就业放缓的报告缓解了对通胀的担忧，导致美联储关闭了这一流动。这就是为什么市场今天因与许多人预期相反的可靠消息而暴跌。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten,<i>&nbsp;regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.</i></p><p><blockquote>美联储的手可能很快就会被现实所迫；如果你一直在阅读这里--尤其是《赞助人》中那些重点关注通货膨胀的帖子，你就会对即将发生的事情有一个很好的了解。然而，人们不必等到美联储收紧货币政策才能阻止通货膨胀；人们只需等到股票投资者确信美联储将不得不收紧货币政策，<i>无论美联储声称向投资者保证什么，它都不会。</i></blockquote></p><p>As&nbsp;<i>MarketWatch</i>&nbsp;noted yesterday,</p><p><blockquote>作为<i>市场观察</i>昨天指出，</blockquote></p><p>Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,&nbsp; <b><i>as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.</i></b>&nbsp;After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear&nbsp; <b><i>Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.</i></b>The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.</p><p><blockquote>周二股市看起来很危险，尤其是科技领域，<b><i>随着通胀紧张情绪继续波及整个市场。由于担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束因 COVID-19 大流行病而采取的宽松立场，该行业一直首当其冲。</i></b>继上周就业意外之后，一些人感到担忧<b><i>周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重冲击。</i></b>市场在自己的负担下不堪重负和紧张，以至于如果它仅仅相信美联储将被迫收紧货币政策，它就会崩溃。这就是为什么它今天会像预震一样震动，但如果你一直在阅读这里的内容，那就一点也不震动了。这是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Inflation is the “</i></b> <b>worst-case</b> <b><i>&nbsp;scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors,</i></b>&nbsp;warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the&nbsp;<i>key</i>:</p><p><blockquote><b><i>通货膨胀是“</i></b><b>最坏情况</b><b><i>对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场，</i></b>Stock Traders Daily 总裁兼首席执行官兼 Equity Logic 投资组合经理 Thomas H. Kee Jr. 警告我们今天的看涨期权。这是<i>钥匙</i>:</blockquote></p><p>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.&nbsp; <b><i>If inflation comes back,</i></b> <b>all</b> <b><i>&nbsp;of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be</i></b> <b>able</b> <b><i>&nbsp;to come back to save the day</i></b>,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and <b><i>&nbsp;if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen</i></b>&nbsp;either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ <b><i>When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!</i></b>”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed&nbsp;<i>wants</i>&nbsp;higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.</p><p><blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施之所以成为可能，唯一的原因就是没有通货膨胀。<b><i>如果通货膨胀再次出现，</i></b><b>全部</b><b><i>投资者获得的保障措施（刺激措施带来的免费资金）将被取消，并且不会……</i></b><b>能</b><b><i>回来拯救世界</i></b>Kee告诉MarketWatch……他说，最近的就业数据确实表明，物价上涨将“比之前想象的更严重……”。“降幅可能比25%严重得多，<b><i>如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因通货膨胀而被束缚，投资者习以为常的快速反弹将不会发生</i></b>基说。“SPX SPX (^GSPC) 的公允价值倍数不是 30 倍，而是 35 倍。更像是 15 倍.”投资者对自然风险意识的回归--而目前这种意识严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划正在全面发挥作用，投资者根本感觉不到任何风险。这才是最危险的!”基说……”<b><i>当大买家不在的时候…那就是对风险的自然感知回来的时候，如果发生这种情况…小心下面!!</i></b>“你看，不断上升的通货膨胀有能力让美联储屈服。我一直在写的那种通货膨胀会让美联储失去魔力，这就是为什么鲍威尔已经在竭尽全力让金融市场相信美联储<i>想要</i>更高的通胀，并让他们相信它想要的更高通胀在开始之前是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Market susceptibility</p><p><blockquote>市场敏感性</blockquote></p><p>Notes Lance Roberts,</p><p><blockquote>兰斯·罗伯茨指出，</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b><i>There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market,</i></b>&nbsp;but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” <i>Seeking Alpha</i>How much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?</p><p><blockquote><b><i>这轮牛市不可能不会以非常糟糕的方式结束。我们都知道这是这个流动性驱动的市场的现实，</i></b>但我们继续投资是为了 “害怕错过 ”。<i>寻求阿尔法</i>美联储和联储涌入市场的所有刺激资金究竟创造了多少现金流，使去年的疯狂成为可能？</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.</p><p><blockquote>过去5个月，流入股市的资金比过去12年的总和还要多。算一算，问问自己，如果因为通货膨胀迫使美联储在商品太少的环境下停止创造太多的新货币，而不得不关闭货币，会发生什么，因为之前的 COVID 关闭短缺以及它们造成的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p>And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):</p><p><blockquote>而且，如果你不认为市场在轻松货币的推动下岌岌可危，那就看看保证金债务（欠经纪人的钱）上涨了多少：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca87d635f36dfaa1c989d7e459550d1\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>When the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储面临加息和停止印钞的巨大压力时，经纪人在放贷时就不会那么自由了。目前，几乎免费的利率很容易赚钱。不过，更重要的是，当市场因担心美联储切断宽松货币而开始下跌时，随着人们被迫出售资产并减少保证金债务，所有保证金债务都开始匆忙解除。</blockquote></p><p>As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，像这样的市场债务的巨大、快速飙升往往发生在严重崩溃之前：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff13864e0443e2a448952529cdf6e2c\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>In the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.</p><p><blockquote>短期来看，基本面并不重要。然而，从长远来看，它们非常重要。情绪可能会导致投资者在很长一段时间内忽视经济基本面，但在高利润率债务环境下，对长期被忽视的基本面看法的突然改变会导致人们的参照系迅速修正。</blockquote></p><p>Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.</p><p><blockquote>目前，投资者忽视了基本面，预期经济和盈利将改善，以证明市场高估是合理的。这不太可能发生。即使确实如此，从今天的冲击来看，大多数圈子里对金融格局（货币的核心价值）的看法也过于乐观；但你可以在一年后看到这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的言论就好像它仍然看不到未来会发生什么，但这正是美联储谈论紧缩政策将有多容易。它似乎并不知道自己没有一个不会导致市场情绪急剧下跌并导致市场崩溃的退出计划。然而，这一点，也可以被那些没有在美德神父脚下敬拜的人看到。</blockquote></p><p>When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&amp;P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>当或如果复苏预期落空，市场将开始重新定价其内在价值。鉴于市场目前的交易价格是潜在经济增长水平的两倍多，而潜在经济增长是企业利润的来源，这表明存在重大风险。这就是为什么道琼斯指数今天下跌 682 点（2%），标准普尔指数下跌 2.14%，纳斯达克指数下跌 368 点（2.67%）。股票中没有太多的安全空间。</blockquote></p><p>Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.</p><p><blockquote>别告诉我通货膨胀对这个市场无关紧要。六个月来最糟糕的一天。更多详情请见另一篇赞助人帖子。</blockquote></p><p>Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我再一次做我所说的此时必不可少的纠正性报告。首先，假新闻：</blockquote></p><p>One big reason for the acceleration was&nbsp; <i>base effects</i>&nbsp;– at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,</p><p><blockquote>加速的一个重要原因是<i>基底效应</i>- 一年前的这个时候，经济受到了科维德大流行病最严重的打击，通货膨胀率异常低。正如我在上一篇赞助人帖子中所说，我还列出了支持我声明的统计数据和来源，</blockquote></p><p>Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:</p><p><blockquote>尽管有疫情，食品价格和许多其他价格像去年3月一样上涨。事实上，在 3 月份之后，它们的涨幅比正常水平更差，2020 年剩余时间里，每个月的年化涨幅都在 3.5% 到 4% 之间。“通胀海啸警报正在尖叫!”我特别注意到一位经济学家说，食品杂货和燃料现在刚刚弥补了上一次的涨幅：</blockquote></p><p>So,&nbsp; <i>like groceries,</i>&nbsp;gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that&nbsp;<i>fuel</i>&nbsp;prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but&nbsp;<i>groceries</i>? Come on!</p><p><blockquote>所以，<i>比如杂货，</i>天然气正在赶上，回到我们实际期望的地方…去年主要发生的事情是<i>燃料</i>由于没有运输任何东西，缺乏假期和通勤，价格暴跌，但是<i>杂货</i>?快点!</blockquote></p><p></p><p>“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.<b><i>So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of facts</i></b><b>if</b><b><i>&nbsp;the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>如果你回顾一下 2018 年的汽油价格，“迎头赶上 ”可能是真的，但当你在评论中拥抱杂货时，这完全是马粪。杂货店什么都赶不上。2020年全年食品的平均通货膨胀率为3.4%，而2011年之前每年的平均通货膨胀率为0.3%-2.5%。3.6%。虽然去年4月至6月的总体通胀率低于正常水平，但这与今年有什么关系？【总体】去年价格仍在上涨；因此，这并不是说你在与一个异常的年份进行比较，因为在那几个月里，整体价格都在下跌，这意味着今年的部分涨幅只是弥补了去年不寻常的损失。然后你可以如实地说有一个基数效应。<b><i>因此，通胀的到来比美联储让人们相信的要快得多；而且，正如我最近的赞助人帖子所说，生产者方面已经酝酿了更多的通货膨胀，这些通货膨胀肯定会被传递出去。我注意到你可以期待看到这一点现在开始出现在消费者方面，而你确实做到了。这将是一个通胀高涨的夏天，这可能会影响市场情绪，因此股市不会对此感到满意。可以肯定的是，无论如何，仍有大量的睾丸激素决心推高股票，但炎热潮湿的夏天将削弱这种情绪，就像今天一样；无论图表读者根据当前的情绪趋势做出什么预测，它都将继续改变它。面对事实，趋势可能会迅速改变</i></b><b>如果</b><b><i>事实以足够的活力撞击。我认为，高通胀是一个令人担忧的事实，它可能会阻止美联储的计划向前推进。</i></b></blockquote></p><p>If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储确实继续以同样的盲目无知和顽固决心证明自己是正确的，这导致它继续推行经济紧缩制度（正如我在2018年声称的那样，它会这样做太久，与良好的判断相反），它真的会让事情变得更糟，更难驯服。我认为这并非不可能。</blockquote></p><p>“ <b><i>There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,</i></b>” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,</p><p><blockquote>“<b><i>有些人认为美联储不仅落后于曲线，他们可能没有抓住要点，当他们开始追赶时，已经太晚了、</i></b>华尔街资深人士阿特·卡申周三在接受CNBC采访时表示，</blockquote></p><p>“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.&nbsp; <b><i>“It’s just that there’s a</i></b> <b>lot more</b> <b><i>&nbsp;‘transitory’ than they were expecting.</i></b>”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?</p><p><blockquote>“凯投宏观（Capital Economics）美国高级经济学家迈克尔-皮尔斯（Michael Pearce）写道：”我们怀疑这份报告是否会改变官员们的观点，即通胀压力'在很大程度上是暂时的'。<b><i>“只是有一个</i></b><b>更多</b><b><i>比他们预期的要'短暂'。</i></b>“CNBC确实。更多。当他们用完了一个假的基地效应来指责它时，他们会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p>Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!</p><p><blockquote>喜欢吗？花点时间在Patreon上支持大卫·哈吉斯!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-12/inflation-will-kill-stock-market\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-12/inflation-will-kill-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134419676","content_text":"I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.The big problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own makingHaving made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.How inflation will fight the Fed and winThe danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The real fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. MarketWatchInflation jitters will become inflation panic when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.  But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten, regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.As MarketWatch noted yesterday,Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,  as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance. After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear  Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.Inflation is the “ worst-case  scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors, warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the key:“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.  If inflation comes back, all  of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able  to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and  if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed wants higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.Market susceptibilityNotes Lance Roberts,There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market, but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” Seeking AlphaHow much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):Seeking AlphaWhen the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:Seeking AlphaIn the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:One big reason for the acceleration was  base effects – at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:So,  like groceries, gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that fuel prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but groceries? Come on!“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of factsif the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.“ There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.  “It’s just that there’s a lot more  ‘transitory’ than they were expecting.”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193935463,"gmtCreate":1620744162552,"gmtModify":1631889761842,"author":{"id":"3583453123593025","authorId":"3583453123593025","name":"khloo1688","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ade0062ccc18f42882a5c6a5241ed6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583453123593025","idStr":"3583453123593025"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACH\">$Aluminum Corporation of China(ACH)$</a>up please","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACH\">$Aluminum Corporation of China(ACH)$</a>up please","text":"$Aluminum Corporation of China(ACH)$up please","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23985065107fe761e5c2469ec4f7a00","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193935463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190926738,"gmtCreate":1620573150724,"gmtModify":1634197968669,"author":{"id":"3583453123593025","authorId":"3583453123593025","name":"khloo1688","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ade0062ccc18f42882a5c6a5241ed6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583453123593025","idStr":"3583453123593025"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"new opportunity","listText":"new opportunity","text":"new opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190926738","repostId":"1106882084","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190923394,"gmtCreate":1620572731818,"gmtModify":1634197972090,"author":{"id":"3583453123593025","authorId":"3583453123593025","name":"khloo1688","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ade0062ccc18f42882a5c6a5241ed6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583453123593025","idStr":"3583453123593025"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"new opportunity","listText":"new opportunity","text":"new opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190923394","repostId":"1106882084","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}