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- 章占锋章占锋
  ·2022-06-04
  中国比亚迪
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 章占锋章占锋
  ·2022-01-24
  中国医药下跌百分之45
  如果标普再现超10%下跌，联储还会服软吗？
  近期美股大跌将对美联储政策产生怎样的影响？
  如果标普再现超10%下跌，联储还会服软吗？
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- 章占锋章占锋
  ·2021-07-09
  暴击啊
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10:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"如果标普再现超10%下跌，联储还会服软吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2205073536","media":"格隆汇","summary":"近期美股大跌将对美联储政策产生怎样的影响？","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要: </b><b>兴业证券表示，2022年以来，标普回撤幅度已接近8%。如若出现超10%回撤，美国需求会随之转弱，联储“向市场低头”。</b></blockquote><p><b>2022年以来，美国股债双杀：标普500指数跌幅近8%，纳斯达克跌幅超12%，10年期美债利率较年初一度上行超过35bp。对此我们的看法：</b></p><p><b>2009年后，联储收紧引发美股的大幅回撤，幅度分别为15%、17%、13%。</b>金融危机后，标普500多次因为联储转鹰出现大幅、快速的下跌。</p><p>2010年4月联储结束QE1，标普在约两个半月内下跌15%；</p><p>2011年6月联储结束QE2，标普在约两周内下跌17%；</p><p>2018年12月联储加息指引超预期鹰派，标普在约20天内下跌13%.</p><p><b>美股超10%的回撤后，美国需求也随之转弱，联储“向市场低头”。</b></p><p>2010年4月，联储退出叠加财政对地产的支持政策退出，股价和房价二次下跌并拖累消费，联储于2010年6月转鸽、8月开启QE2;</p><p>2011年6月，联储退出后，欧债危机再次发酵、市场担忧美国财政悬崖、美债降级，联储于2011年8月调整对经济的判断、9月宣布OT；</p><p>2018年底美股波动拖累居民消费，联储于2019年1月删除了加息的前瞻指引、3月宣布结束缩表、8月启动降息周期。</p><p><b>2022年以来，美国市场担忧联储超预期收紧，标普回撤幅度已接近8%。</b>2021年12月以来，出于高通胀压力，联储连续释放鹰派信号。近期，地缘政治因素推升油价加剧通胀担忧，市场一度押注3月FOMC会议加息50bp。虽然美国12月零售数据、1月纽约制造业数据显著低于预期，但随着联储将重心转向通胀，美债近期似乎对需求走弱不太敏感。美债利率的快速上行也使得纳斯达克在内的成长股明显回调。</p><p><b>考虑到市场调整或给经济带来负反馈，本次联储“认怂”的概率也在上升。</b>我们此前持续提示（详参《缝缝补补又一年》），危机后（尤其是疫情以来）美国居民消费和政府支出对股债市场的依赖快速加深。这意味着，美股大幅回调将直接影响居民收入和消费倾向，进而可能拖累消费；美债利率的冲杀也将进一步推升美国政府当前巨大的付息能力；考虑到疫后联储持有美债占比快速升至20%，联储缩表也会给美国财政部融资带来压力。这使得联储此前的操作一直 “覆水难收”。从这个角度而言，近期美国股债双杀，已开始挤压联储鹰派的空间，这意味着联储“认怂”的压力也在上升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fac922a9b491d74edf136b6af8b14a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期收紧，全球市场超预期波动。</b></p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34770bfaae765f1d5a18d891aa56909\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406a58576b735efb2f1addf53fa2239a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b77299a7d8f8921c3e21fd15981b2b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10c7f779e1309373055f877835135cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ce2ab6dff8a0f2b72c3034573b1e88\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5243c0f6fe584892de27ffba77bef27a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457b35504bac351c0161a982a8ebfbce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/527c0879454a64858c985e2150c4904a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27375bd833f15c2d087903be9120f8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e528d15e19caf3071286942d371a7a23\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4d0b7ab3442f0bbf8ea8e84965094d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期收紧，全球市场超预期波动。</b></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>如果标普再现超10%下跌，联储还会服软吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如果标普再现超10%下跌，联储还会服软吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-24 10:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/507250><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要: 兴业证券表示，2022年以来，标普回撤幅度已接近8%。如若出现超10%回撤，美国需求会随之转弱，联储“向市场低头”。2022年以来，美国股债双杀：标普500指数跌幅近8%，纳斯达克跌幅超12%，10年期美债利率较年初一度上行超过35bp。对此我们的看法：2009年后，联储收紧引发美股的大幅回撤，幅度分别为15%、17%、13%。金融危机后，标普500多次因为联储转鹰出现大幅、快速的下跌。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/507250\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/507250","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2205073536","content_text":"摘要: 兴业证券表示，2022年以来，标普回撤幅度已接近8%。如若出现超10%回撤，美国需求会随之转弱，联储“向市场低头”。2022年以来，美国股债双杀：标普500指数跌幅近8%，纳斯达克跌幅超12%，10年期美债利率较年初一度上行超过35bp。对此我们的看法：2009年后，联储收紧引发美股的大幅回撤，幅度分别为15%、17%、13%。金融危机后，标普500多次因为联储转鹰出现大幅、快速的下跌。2010年4月联储结束QE1，标普在约两个半月内下跌15%；2011年6月联储结束QE2，标普在约两周内下跌17%；2018年12月联储加息指引超预期鹰派，标普在约20天内下跌13%.美股超10%的回撤后，美国需求也随之转弱，联储“向市场低头”。2010年4月，联储退出叠加财政对地产的支持政策退出，股价和房价二次下跌并拖累消费，联储于2010年6月转鸽、8月开启QE2;2011年6月，联储退出后，欧债危机再次发酵、市场担忧美国财政悬崖、美债降级，联储于2011年8月调整对经济的判断、9月宣布OT；2018年底美股波动拖累居民消费，联储于2019年1月删除了加息的前瞻指引、3月宣布结束缩表、8月启动降息周期。2022年以来，美国市场担忧联储超预期收紧，标普回撤幅度已接近8%。2021年12月以来，出于高通胀压力，联储连续释放鹰派信号。近期，地缘政治因素推升油价加剧通胀担忧，市场一度押注3月FOMC会议加息50bp。虽然美国12月零售数据、1月纽约制造业数据显著低于预期，但随着联储将重心转向通胀，美债近期似乎对需求走弱不太敏感。美债利率的快速上行也使得纳斯达克在内的成长股明显回调。考虑到市场调整或给经济带来负反馈，本次联储“认怂”的概率也在上升。我们此前持续提示（详参《缝缝补补又一年》），危机后（尤其是疫情以来）美国居民消费和政府支出对股债市场的依赖快速加深。这意味着，美股大幅回调将直接影响居民收入和消费倾向，进而可能拖累消费；美债利率的冲杀也将进一步推升美国政府当前巨大的付息能力；考虑到疫后联储持有美债占比快速升至20%，联储缩表也会给美国财政部融资带来压力。这使得联储此前的操作一直 “覆水难收”。从这个角度而言，近期美国股债双杀，已开始挤压联储鹰派的空间，这意味着联储“认怂”的压力也在上升。风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期收紧，全球市场超预期波动。正文风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期收紧，全球市场超预期波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":141340282,"gmtCreate":1625840119246,"gmtModify":1625843240692,"author":{"id":"3584049520547849","authorId":"3584049520547849","name":"章占锋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cac70253b49d842c9ce0628234bd2b1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584049520547849","idStr":"3584049520547849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"暴击啊","listText":"暴击啊","text":"暴击啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141340282","repostId":"1199935751","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}