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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-07-13
  A good reminder of lessons to be learnt from dotcom bubble.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  917 评论
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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-07-07
  Which stock is better- xpeng or byd?
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-07-05
  Would like to know what kind of event will trigger the bitcoin price to drop to $20K level.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-07-03
  Can believe the jobs data?
  The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.
  On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat
  The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.
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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-07-02
  Does anyone here think Fed will raise rates sooner than late 2022?
  Fed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says
  (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 o
  Fed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says
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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-06-29
  Hope the various govts have learnt not to repeat the same mistakes in dealing with delta variant.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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good reminder of lessons to be learnt from dotcom bubble.&nbsp;","listText":"A good reminder of lessons to be learnt from dotcom bubble.&nbsp;","text":"A good reminder of lessons to be learnt from dotcom bubble.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142739396","repostId":"1156380405","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140314504,"gmtCreate":1625629187308,"gmtModify":1631885239657,"author":{"id":"3584225860430865","authorId":"3584225860430865","name":"Jwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584225860430865","authorIdStr":"3584225860430865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Which stock is better- xpeng or byd?&nbsp;","listText":"Which stock is better- xpeng or byd?&nbsp;","text":"Which stock is better- xpeng or byd?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140314504","repostId":"2149360674","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154376951,"gmtCreate":1625485061273,"gmtModify":1631885239690,"author":{"id":"3584225860430865","authorId":"3584225860430865","name":"Jwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584225860430865","authorIdStr":"3584225860430865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Would like to know&nbsp;what kind of event will trigger&nbsp;the bitcoin price to drop to $20K level.&nbsp;","listText":"Would like to know&nbsp;what kind of event will trigger&nbsp;the bitcoin price to drop to $20K level.&nbsp;","text":"Would like to know what kind of event will trigger the bitcoin price to drop to $20K level.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154376951","repostId":"1139574200","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152520791,"gmtCreate":1625315275613,"gmtModify":1631885239696,"author":{"id":"3584225860430865","authorId":"3584225860430865","name":"Jwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584225860430865","authorIdStr":"3584225860430865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can believe the jobs data?&nbsp;","listText":"Can believe the jobs data?&nbsp;","text":"Can believe the jobs data?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152520791","repostId":"1197906560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197906560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625285328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197906560?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197906560","media":"Barron's","summary":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat ","content":"<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p>\n<p>One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p>\n<p>First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p>\n<p>What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p>\n<p>Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p>\n<p>Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p>\n<p>“If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p>\n<p>Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p>\n<p>So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p>\n<p>The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p>\n<p>While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p>\n<p>At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p>\n<p>All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p>\n<p>Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p>\n<p>If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p>\n<p>Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p>\n<p>Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-03 12:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197906560","content_text":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.\nOne might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.\nFirst, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.\nWhat’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.\nSecond, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.\nThird, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.\n“If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.\nFurther highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.\nSo, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.\nThe degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.\nWhile about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.\nAt least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.\nAll of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.\nNot so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.\nIf that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.\nTherein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.\nInvestors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156159897,"gmtCreate":1625204446619,"gmtModify":1631885239710,"author":{"id":"3584225860430865","authorId":"3584225860430865","name":"Jwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584225860430865","authorIdStr":"3584225860430865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Does anyone here think Fed will raise rates sooner&nbsp;than late 2022?","listText":"Does anyone here think Fed will raise rates sooner&nbsp;than late 2022?","text":"Does anyone here think Fed will raise rates sooner than late 2022?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156159897","repostId":"1161499488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161499488","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625203730,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161499488?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 13:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161499488","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 o","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 or early 2023 as increased government spending keeps inflation above its long-run average target, according to the International Monetary Fund.</p>\n<p>The U.S. central bank likely will begin to scale back asset purchases in the first half of 2022, staff from the Washington-based fund said in a statement Thursday following the conclusion of so-called article IV consultations, the IMF’s assessment of countries’ economic and financial developments following meetings with lawmakers and public officials.</p>\n<p>“Managing this transition -- from providing reassurance that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy to preparing for an eventual scaling back of asset purchases and a withdrawal of monetary accommodation -- will require deft communications under a potentially tight timeline,” IMF staff said in the concluding statement.</p>\n<p>The Fed held interest rates near zero at its June 15-16 meeting and signaled it would probably keep them there through next year to help the U.S. economy recover from Covid-19. Officials penciled in two rate hikes for 2023 and seven of the 18 policy makers want to raise rates in 2022, up from four in March.</p>\n<p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that recent steep increases in inflation will prove to be largely transitory due to bottlenecks and that expectations on the whole are where the Fed wants them.</p>\n<p>Inflation Forecasts</p>\n<p>The personal consumption expenditures price gauge that the Fed uses for its inflation target rose 3.9% in May from a year earlier, the most since 2008. The IMF forecasts the increase to be transitory, with the index peaking at 4.3% and dropping to around 2.5% by the end of 2022. That’s still above the Fed’s long-run average target of 2%.</p>\n<p>At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee marked up all its inflation forecasts through the end of 2023, with officials seeing personal consumption expenditures -- their preferred measure of price pressures -- rising 3.4% in 2021 compared with a March projection of 2.4%. They increased the 2022 forecast to 2.1%, and 2.2% for the following year.</p>\n<p>Fund staff estimates that the higher U.S. spending proposed by President Joe Biden in the infrastructure-focused American Jobs Plan and the social-spending-based American Families Plan -- which have yet to pass -- would increase growth in gross domestic product by a cumulative value of about 5.25% from 2022 to 2024.</p>\n<p>The IMF raised its estimate for U.S. economic expansion this year to 7% -- the fastest pace since 1984 -- from a 6.4% forecast in April.</p>\n<p>Lawmakers have release a wave of pandemic-relief funds over the past 15 months to buoy the economy with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed in March, a $900 billion package approved in December and the $2 trillion Cares Act of March 2020.</p>\n<p>“The unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, combined with the receding Covid-19 case numbers, should provide a substantial boost to activity in the coming months,” the IMF said. “Savings will be drawn down, demand will return for in-person services, and depleted inventories will be rebuilt.”</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 13:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-likely-needs-raise-rates-200035658.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 or early 2023 as increased government spending keeps inflation above its long-run average target, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-likely-needs-raise-rates-200035658.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-likely-needs-raise-rates-200035658.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161499488","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 or early 2023 as increased government spending keeps inflation above its long-run average target, according to the International Monetary Fund.\nThe U.S. central bank likely will begin to scale back asset purchases in the first half of 2022, staff from the Washington-based fund said in a statement Thursday following the conclusion of so-called article IV consultations, the IMF’s assessment of countries’ economic and financial developments following meetings with lawmakers and public officials.\n“Managing this transition -- from providing reassurance that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy to preparing for an eventual scaling back of asset purchases and a withdrawal of monetary accommodation -- will require deft communications under a potentially tight timeline,” IMF staff said in the concluding statement.\nThe Fed held interest rates near zero at its June 15-16 meeting and signaled it would probably keep them there through next year to help the U.S. economy recover from Covid-19. Officials penciled in two rate hikes for 2023 and seven of the 18 policy makers want to raise rates in 2022, up from four in March.\nFed Chair Jerome Powell has said that recent steep increases in inflation will prove to be largely transitory due to bottlenecks and that expectations on the whole are where the Fed wants them.\nInflation Forecasts\nThe personal consumption expenditures price gauge that the Fed uses for its inflation target rose 3.9% in May from a year earlier, the most since 2008. The IMF forecasts the increase to be transitory, with the index peaking at 4.3% and dropping to around 2.5% by the end of 2022. That’s still above the Fed’s long-run average target of 2%.\nAt its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee marked up all its inflation forecasts through the end of 2023, with officials seeing personal consumption expenditures -- their preferred measure of price pressures -- rising 3.4% in 2021 compared with a March projection of 2.4%. They increased the 2022 forecast to 2.1%, and 2.2% for the following year.\nFund staff estimates that the higher U.S. spending proposed by President Joe Biden in the infrastructure-focused American Jobs Plan and the social-spending-based American Families Plan -- which have yet to pass -- would increase growth in gross domestic product by a cumulative value of about 5.25% from 2022 to 2024.\nThe IMF raised its estimate for U.S. economic expansion this year to 7% -- the fastest pace since 1984 -- from a 6.4% forecast in April.\nLawmakers have release a wave of pandemic-relief funds over the past 15 months to buoy the economy with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed in March, a $900 billion package approved in December and the $2 trillion Cares Act of March 2020.\n“The unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, combined with the receding Covid-19 case numbers, should provide a substantial boost to activity in the coming months,” the IMF said. “Savings will be drawn down, demand will return for in-person services, and depleted inventories will be rebuilt.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159819825,"gmtCreate":1624954997567,"gmtModify":1631884322932,"author":{"id":"3584225860430865","authorId":"3584225860430865","name":"Jwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584225860430865","authorIdStr":"3584225860430865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope the various govts have learnt not to repeat the same mistakes in dealing with delta variant.&nbsp;","listText":"Hope the various govts have learnt not to repeat the same mistakes in dealing with delta variant.&nbsp;","text":"Hope the various govts have learnt not to repeat the same mistakes in dealing with delta variant.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159819825","repostId":"2147854949","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}