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85fadd7
85fadd7
·
2021-11-10
O
Blackstone Turns Sluggish Credit Business Into a Winner<blockquote>黑石将低迷的信贷业务转变为赢家</blockquote>
Blackstone Inc.towers over most of its private-equity peers with $731 billion in assets, but the fir
Blackstone Turns Sluggish Credit Business Into a Winner<blockquote>黑石将低迷的信贷业务转变为赢家</blockquote>
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85fadd7
85fadd7
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2021-11-06
Good
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85fadd7
85fadd7
·
2021-10-25
Wow
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85fadd7
85fadd7
·
2021-10-24
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
The PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓应该不会损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>
Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain iss
The PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓应该不会损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>
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85fadd7
85fadd7
·
2021-10-21
Wow
Tesla’s earnings show is more cautious — and yes, boring — without Elon around<blockquote>特斯拉的财报在没有埃隆的情况下更加谨慎--是的，也更加无聊</blockquote>
Tesla Inc. was more cautious Wednesday in both its shareholder letter and its conference call, its f
Tesla’s earnings show is more cautious — and yes, boring — without Elon around<blockquote>特斯拉的财报在没有埃隆的情况下更加谨慎--是的，也更加无聊</blockquote>
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85fadd7
85fadd7
·
2021-10-17
Wow
JPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通谈亚马逊股票：29% 的上涨潜力</blockquote>
Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&
JPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通谈亚马逊股票：29% 的上涨潜力</blockquote>
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85fadd7
85fadd7
·
2021-10-11
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3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得购买的 3 只必备股票</blockquote>
Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might
3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得购买的 3 只必备股票</blockquote>
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85fadd7
85fadd7
·
2021-10-09
Oh
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85fadd7
85fadd7
·
2021-10-08
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U.S. economy adds 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecast<blockquote>美国经济9月份新增就业岗位19.4万个，远低于预期</blockquote>
(Oct 8) The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower pace than expected pace in September, a pessi
U.S. economy adds 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecast<blockquote>美国经济9月份新增就业岗位19.4万个，远低于预期</blockquote>
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85fadd7
85fadd7
·
2021-10-02
Nice
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18:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Blackstone Turns Sluggish Credit Business Into a Winner<blockquote>黑石将低迷的信贷业务转变为赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151092697","media":"Wall Street Journal","summary":"Blackstone Inc.towers over most of its private-equity peers with $731 billion in assets, but the fir","content":"<p>Blackstone Inc.towers over most of its private-equity peers with $731 billion in assets, but the firm has had a soft underbelly for years: its sluggish lending business. Now, credit has become one of the firm’s fastest-growing segments, part of a broad shift under the leadership of President Jonathan Gray.</p><p><blockquote>黑石公司 (Blackstone Inc.) 拥有 7,310 亿美元的资产，超过了大多数私募股权同行，但该公司多年来一直有一个软肋：其贷款业务低迷。现在，信贷已成为公司发展最快的部门之一，这是乔纳森-格雷（Jonathan Gray）总裁领导下广泛转型的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Assets under management in the unit, which makes corporate loans backing leveraged buyouts for other private-equity firms, jumped 22% to $188 billion this year through Sept. 30. Private-equity assets under management rose 17% to $231.5 billion over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>截至 9 月 30 日，该部门管理的资产今年增长了 22%，达到 1,880 亿美元，该部门为其他私募股权公司的杠杆收购提供企业贷款支持。同期管理的私募股权资产增长 17%，达到 2315 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone is expanding in the space by launching low-fee funds and selling them to wealthy individuals who might not qualify for products tailored to institutions like pension plans. The strategy replicated a move that Mr. Grayused to turbocharge the growthof the firm’s real-estate investment trust, called BREIT.</p><p><blockquote>黑石正在通过推出低费用基金并将其出售给可能没有资格获得养老金计划等机构定制产品的富裕个人来扩张该领域。这一战略复制了格雷先生用来推动公司名为 BREIT 的房地产投资信托基金增长的举措。</blockquote></p><p> It also marks a culture shift, as the hedge-fund operations that once lent Blackstone its Wall Street cachet fall out of favor. And large money managers that traditionally focused on private equity see a bigger opportunity in debt, where the addressable market could be as large as $40 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>这也标志着文化的转变，因为曾经让黑石在华尔街声望显赫的对冲基金业务正在失宠。传统上专注于私募股权的大型基金管理公司看到了债务方面的更大机会，其潜在市场可能高达 40 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The resurgent credit business should help Blackstone in the race for investor dollars against its principal competitors, includingApollo Global ManagementInc.,Ares ManagementCorp.and KKR & Co.</p><p><blockquote>复苏的信贷业务应该有助于黑石集团与其主要竞争对手（包括 Apollo Global ManagementInc.、Ares ManagementCorp. 和 KKR & Co.）争夺投资者资金。</blockquote></p><p> Debt specialists Apollo and Ares have pledged to boost assets to $1 trillion and $500 billion, respectively, in coming years, while KKR more than doubled its credit business this year, primarily by purchasing insurer Global Atlantic Financial Group Ltd. Only Ares grew its own credit business as fast as Blackstone this year.</p><p><blockquote>债务专家 Apollo 和 Ares 已承诺在未来几年将资产分别增加到 1 万亿美元和 5000 亿美元，而 KKR 今年的信贷业务增长了一倍多，主要是通过收购保险公司 Global Atlantic Financial Group Ltd. 只有 Ares 今年的信贷业务增长速度与黑石一样快。</blockquote></p><p> Several large credit firms vied to win the lead role providing $2.6 billion of loans this year for private-equity firm Thoma Bravo LP’s leveraged buyout of Stamps.com Inc. Blackstone walked away with the top spot by offering to backstop the entire amount, Dwight Scott, head of Blackstone Credit, said.</p><p><blockquote>几家大型信贷公司争夺主导地位，今年为私募股权公司 Thoma Bravo LP 杠杆收购 Stamps.com Inc. Blackstone Credit 负责人德怀特-斯科特（Dwight Scott）说，Blackstone 提出为全部贷款提供支持，从而夺得了头把交椅。</blockquote></p><p> The firm historically operated in debt markets through GSO Capital Partners, a hedge-fund manager it acquired in 2008 that was known for large, aggressive and lucrative trades. GSO’s founders— Bennett Goodman, Tripp Smith and Doug Ostrover —all left Blackstone in recent years. The credit business jettisoned the GSO name last year and has shut its hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>该公司历史上通过 GSO Capital Partners 在债务市场开展业务，GSO Capital Partners 是一家对冲基金管理公司，于 2008 年收购，以大型、激进和利润丰厚的交易而闻名。GSO 的创始人贝内特-古德曼（Bennett Goodman）、特里普-史密斯（Tripp Smith）和道格-奥斯特罗弗（Doug Ostrover）近年来都离开了黑石集团。信贷业务去年放弃了 GSO 名称，并关闭了其对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone’s separate hedge-fund solutions business has shrunk in importance to 11% of total assets, down from 19.4% five years ago, according to earnings reports. John McCormick, co-head of Blackstone’s funds-of-hedge-funds business, told colleagues last month thathe plans to resign.</p><p><blockquote>根据财报，黑石独立的对冲基金解决方案业务占总资产的比例已从五年前的 19.4% 降至 11%。黑石对冲基金业务联席主管约翰-麦考密克（John McCormick）上个月告诉同事，他计划辞职。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund solutions unit’s “revenues and earnings have doubled in the last three years and the business will continue to expand through new offerings and senior hires,” a Blackstone spokeswoman said.</p><p><blockquote>黑石集团发言人表示，对冲基金解决方案部门的 “收入和盈利在过去三年中翻了一番，业务将通过新产品和高级员工招聘继续扩张”。</blockquote></p><p> The rebranded Blackstone Credit is aggressively marketing less-risky, cheaper funds to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>更名后的 Blackstone Credit 正在积极向个人投资者营销风险较低、成本较低的基金。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s all about de-risking the portfolio,” said Mr. Scott. Blackstone believes the lower-fee products allow it to deliver attractive returns to investors without reaching for yield by purchasing debt with a higher chance of default, he said.</p><p><blockquote>“斯科特先生说：”这一切都是为了降低投资组合的风险。他表示，黑石认为，费用较低的产品使其能够为投资者提供有吸引力的回报，而无需通过购买违约概率较高的债务来获得收益率。</blockquote></p><p> The credit revamp is part of Blackstone’s aim to achieve $1 trillion in assets by 2026. To get there, Mr. Gray has encouraged Blackstone’s business headsto embrace a thematic investing approachfocused on fast-growing industries. In credit, this translates into more loans to sectors such as technology and life sciences.</p><p><blockquote>此次信贷重组是黑石集团到 2026 年实现 1 万亿美元资产目标的一部分。为了实现这一目标，格雷先生鼓励黑石集团的业务主管采用专注于快速增长行业的主题投资方法。在信贷方面，这转化为对技术和生命科学等行业的更多贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone earlier this year launched BCRED, a business development company, or BDC, which makes direct loans to medium-size companies. BCRED raised $9.4 billion through share sales this year, primarily to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>黑石今年早些时候推出了业务发展公司 BCRED（简称 BDC），向中型企业提供直接贷款。BCRED 今年通过股票销售筹集了 94 亿美元，主要面向个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone made its first big foray into credit whenit bought GSOfor about $1 billion. GSO hedge funds excelled at big risky bets on distressed debt thatreturned as much as $100 million each.</p><p><blockquote>黑石集团以约 10 亿美元收购了 GSOfor，首次涉足信贷领域。GSO 对冲基金擅长对不良债务进行高风险押注，每笔回报高达 1 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The firm also joined with Franklin Square Holdings LP, which launched a BDC in 2009. GSO made the loans and split management fees with Franklin Square, which raised money from individual investors. Upfront broker and management fees averaged 9.4% in the BDC’s early days, high enough toattract scrutiny from regulators.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还加入了富兰克林广场控股有限公司，后者于2009年推出了BDC。GSO提供了贷款，并与富兰克林广场分摊了管理费，富兰克林广场从个人投资者那里筹集资金。在 BDC 成立初期，前期经纪人和管理费平均为 9.4%，高到足以引起监管机构的审查。</blockquote></p><p> Credit assets jumped about fivefold to $128 billion in the decade after the GSO acquisition as the business built a mixture of BDCs, hedge funds and securitized bundles of low-rated debt known as collateralized loan obligations.</p><p><blockquote>收购 GSO 后的十年间，信贷资产增长了约五倍，达到 1280 亿美元，因为该公司建立了 BDC、对冲基金和被称为抵押贷款义务的低评级债务证券化捆绑包的组合。</blockquote></p><p> The growth stalled out in mid-2018 when the venture with Franklin Square dissolved over the profit-sharing split and differing growth strategies. Blackstoneexited from the businessin exchange for a $640 million breakup fee. The last of the GSO founders resigned shortly afterward.</p><p><blockquote>2018 年年中，由于利润分享和不同的增长战略，与富兰克林广场的合资企业解散，增长陷入停滞。百仕通以 6.4 亿美元的分手费退出该业务。GSO的最后一位创始人不久后辞职。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Credit assets under management rose by 3.1% to $144.3 billion from April 2018 to the end of 2019 even as Blackstone’s overall assets swelled by 27%, according to company earnings reports. Apollo’s credit assets grew 30.4% over the same period to $215.5 billion and Ares’s surged 43% to $110.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>根据公司财报，从2018年4月到2019年底，管理的信贷资产增长了3.1%，达到1443亿美元，尽管黑石的总资产增长了27%。同期，阿波罗的信贷资产增长了 30.4%，达到 2155 亿美元；阿瑞斯的信贷资产激增了 43%，达到 1105 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone spent that time designing the terms and sales engine for its new BDC, from which it earns all of the management fees, said Brad Marshall, co-head of performing credit at the firm. BCRED uses the same brokers that sell BREIT for marketing and charges a 1.25% management fee and a 12.5% performance fee. Most big competitors charge 1.5% and 17.5%-20%, respectively, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.</p><p><blockquote>黑石集团履行信贷联席主管布拉德·马歇尔 (Brad Marshall) 表示，黑石集团花时间为其新 BDC 设计条款和销售引擎，并从中赚取所有管理费。BCRED 使用销售 BREIT 的相同经纪商进行营销，并收取 1.25% 的管理费和 12.5% 的绩效费。根据美国证券交易委员会的文件，大多数大型竞争对手分别收取 1.5% 和 17.5%-20% 的费用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Blackstone Turns Sluggish Credit Business Into a Winner<blockquote>黑石将低迷的信贷业务转变为赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackstone Turns Sluggish Credit Business Into a Winner<blockquote>黑石将低迷的信贷业务转变为赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-10 18:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Blackstone Inc.towers over most of its private-equity peers with $731 billion in assets, but the firm has had a soft underbelly for years: its sluggish lending business. Now, credit has become one of the firm’s fastest-growing segments, part of a broad shift under the leadership of President Jonathan Gray.</p><p><blockquote>黑石公司 (Blackstone Inc.) 拥有 7,310 亿美元的资产，超过了大多数私募股权同行，但该公司多年来一直有一个软肋：其贷款业务低迷。现在，信贷已成为公司发展最快的部门之一，这是乔纳森-格雷（Jonathan Gray）总裁领导下广泛转型的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Assets under management in the unit, which makes corporate loans backing leveraged buyouts for other private-equity firms, jumped 22% to $188 billion this year through Sept. 30. Private-equity assets under management rose 17% to $231.5 billion over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>截至 9 月 30 日，该部门管理的资产今年增长了 22%，达到 1,880 亿美元，该部门为其他私募股权公司的杠杆收购提供企业贷款支持。同期管理的私募股权资产增长 17%，达到 2315 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone is expanding in the space by launching low-fee funds and selling them to wealthy individuals who might not qualify for products tailored to institutions like pension plans. The strategy replicated a move that Mr. Grayused to turbocharge the growthof the firm’s real-estate investment trust, called BREIT.</p><p><blockquote>黑石正在通过推出低费用基金并将其出售给可能没有资格获得养老金计划等机构定制产品的富裕个人来扩张该领域。这一战略复制了格雷先生用来推动公司名为 BREIT 的房地产投资信托基金增长的举措。</blockquote></p><p> It also marks a culture shift, as the hedge-fund operations that once lent Blackstone its Wall Street cachet fall out of favor. And large money managers that traditionally focused on private equity see a bigger opportunity in debt, where the addressable market could be as large as $40 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>这也标志着文化的转变，因为曾经让黑石在华尔街声望显赫的对冲基金业务正在失宠。传统上专注于私募股权的大型基金管理公司看到了债务方面的更大机会，其潜在市场可能高达 40 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The resurgent credit business should help Blackstone in the race for investor dollars against its principal competitors, includingApollo Global ManagementInc.,Ares ManagementCorp.and KKR & Co.</p><p><blockquote>复苏的信贷业务应该有助于黑石集团与其主要竞争对手（包括 Apollo Global ManagementInc.、Ares ManagementCorp. 和 KKR & Co.）争夺投资者资金。</blockquote></p><p> Debt specialists Apollo and Ares have pledged to boost assets to $1 trillion and $500 billion, respectively, in coming years, while KKR more than doubled its credit business this year, primarily by purchasing insurer Global Atlantic Financial Group Ltd. Only Ares grew its own credit business as fast as Blackstone this year.</p><p><blockquote>债务专家 Apollo 和 Ares 已承诺在未来几年将资产分别增加到 1 万亿美元和 5000 亿美元，而 KKR 今年的信贷业务增长了一倍多，主要是通过收购保险公司 Global Atlantic Financial Group Ltd. 只有 Ares 今年的信贷业务增长速度与黑石一样快。</blockquote></p><p> Several large credit firms vied to win the lead role providing $2.6 billion of loans this year for private-equity firm Thoma Bravo LP’s leveraged buyout of Stamps.com Inc. Blackstone walked away with the top spot by offering to backstop the entire amount, Dwight Scott, head of Blackstone Credit, said.</p><p><blockquote>几家大型信贷公司争夺主导地位，今年为私募股权公司 Thoma Bravo LP 杠杆收购 Stamps.com Inc. Blackstone Credit 负责人德怀特-斯科特（Dwight Scott）说，Blackstone 提出为全部贷款提供支持，从而夺得了头把交椅。</blockquote></p><p> The firm historically operated in debt markets through GSO Capital Partners, a hedge-fund manager it acquired in 2008 that was known for large, aggressive and lucrative trades. GSO’s founders— Bennett Goodman, Tripp Smith and Doug Ostrover —all left Blackstone in recent years. The credit business jettisoned the GSO name last year and has shut its hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>该公司历史上通过 GSO Capital Partners 在债务市场开展业务，GSO Capital Partners 是一家对冲基金管理公司，于 2008 年收购，以大型、激进和利润丰厚的交易而闻名。GSO 的创始人贝内特-古德曼（Bennett Goodman）、特里普-史密斯（Tripp Smith）和道格-奥斯特罗弗（Doug Ostrover）近年来都离开了黑石集团。信贷业务去年放弃了 GSO 名称，并关闭了其对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone’s separate hedge-fund solutions business has shrunk in importance to 11% of total assets, down from 19.4% five years ago, according to earnings reports. John McCormick, co-head of Blackstone’s funds-of-hedge-funds business, told colleagues last month thathe plans to resign.</p><p><blockquote>根据财报，黑石独立的对冲基金解决方案业务占总资产的比例已从五年前的 19.4% 降至 11%。黑石对冲基金业务联席主管约翰-麦考密克（John McCormick）上个月告诉同事，他计划辞职。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund solutions unit’s “revenues and earnings have doubled in the last three years and the business will continue to expand through new offerings and senior hires,” a Blackstone spokeswoman said.</p><p><blockquote>黑石集团发言人表示，对冲基金解决方案部门的 “收入和盈利在过去三年中翻了一番，业务将通过新产品和高级员工招聘继续扩张”。</blockquote></p><p> The rebranded Blackstone Credit is aggressively marketing less-risky, cheaper funds to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>更名后的 Blackstone Credit 正在积极向个人投资者营销风险较低、成本较低的基金。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s all about de-risking the portfolio,” said Mr. Scott. Blackstone believes the lower-fee products allow it to deliver attractive returns to investors without reaching for yield by purchasing debt with a higher chance of default, he said.</p><p><blockquote>“斯科特先生说：”这一切都是为了降低投资组合的风险。他表示，黑石认为，费用较低的产品使其能够为投资者提供有吸引力的回报，而无需通过购买违约概率较高的债务来获得收益率。</blockquote></p><p> The credit revamp is part of Blackstone’s aim to achieve $1 trillion in assets by 2026. To get there, Mr. Gray has encouraged Blackstone’s business headsto embrace a thematic investing approachfocused on fast-growing industries. In credit, this translates into more loans to sectors such as technology and life sciences.</p><p><blockquote>此次信贷重组是黑石集团到 2026 年实现 1 万亿美元资产目标的一部分。为了实现这一目标，格雷先生鼓励黑石集团的业务主管采用专注于快速增长行业的主题投资方法。在信贷方面，这转化为对技术和生命科学等行业的更多贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone earlier this year launched BCRED, a business development company, or BDC, which makes direct loans to medium-size companies. BCRED raised $9.4 billion through share sales this year, primarily to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>黑石今年早些时候推出了业务发展公司 BCRED（简称 BDC），向中型企业提供直接贷款。BCRED 今年通过股票销售筹集了 94 亿美元，主要面向个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone made its first big foray into credit whenit bought GSOfor about $1 billion. GSO hedge funds excelled at big risky bets on distressed debt thatreturned as much as $100 million each.</p><p><blockquote>黑石集团以约 10 亿美元收购了 GSOfor，首次涉足信贷领域。GSO 对冲基金擅长对不良债务进行高风险押注，每笔回报高达 1 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The firm also joined with Franklin Square Holdings LP, which launched a BDC in 2009. GSO made the loans and split management fees with Franklin Square, which raised money from individual investors. Upfront broker and management fees averaged 9.4% in the BDC’s early days, high enough toattract scrutiny from regulators.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还加入了富兰克林广场控股有限公司，后者于2009年推出了BDC。GSO提供了贷款，并与富兰克林广场分摊了管理费，富兰克林广场从个人投资者那里筹集资金。在 BDC 成立初期，前期经纪人和管理费平均为 9.4%，高到足以引起监管机构的审查。</blockquote></p><p> Credit assets jumped about fivefold to $128 billion in the decade after the GSO acquisition as the business built a mixture of BDCs, hedge funds and securitized bundles of low-rated debt known as collateralized loan obligations.</p><p><blockquote>收购 GSO 后的十年间，信贷资产增长了约五倍，达到 1280 亿美元，因为该公司建立了 BDC、对冲基金和被称为抵押贷款义务的低评级债务证券化捆绑包的组合。</blockquote></p><p> The growth stalled out in mid-2018 when the venture with Franklin Square dissolved over the profit-sharing split and differing growth strategies. Blackstoneexited from the businessin exchange for a $640 million breakup fee. The last of the GSO founders resigned shortly afterward.</p><p><blockquote>2018 年年中，由于利润分享和不同的增长战略，与富兰克林广场的合资企业解散，增长陷入停滞。百仕通以 6.4 亿美元的分手费退出该业务。GSO的最后一位创始人不久后辞职。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Credit assets under management rose by 3.1% to $144.3 billion from April 2018 to the end of 2019 even as Blackstone’s overall assets swelled by 27%, according to company earnings reports. Apollo’s credit assets grew 30.4% over the same period to $215.5 billion and Ares’s surged 43% to $110.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>根据公司财报，从2018年4月到2019年底，管理的信贷资产增长了3.1%，达到1443亿美元，尽管黑石的总资产增长了27%。同期，阿波罗的信贷资产增长了 30.4%，达到 2155 亿美元；阿瑞斯的信贷资产激增了 43%，达到 1105 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone spent that time designing the terms and sales engine for its new BDC, from which it earns all of the management fees, said Brad Marshall, co-head of performing credit at the firm. BCRED uses the same brokers that sell BREIT for marketing and charges a 1.25% management fee and a 12.5% performance fee. Most big competitors charge 1.5% and 17.5%-20%, respectively, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.</p><p><blockquote>黑石集团履行信贷联席主管布拉德·马歇尔 (Brad Marshall) 表示，黑石集团花时间为其新 BDC 设计条款和销售引擎，并从中赚取所有管理费。BCRED 使用销售 BREIT 的相同经纪商进行营销，并收取 1.25% 的管理费和 12.5% 的绩效费。根据美国证券交易委员会的文件，大多数大型竞争对手分别收取 1.5% 和 17.5%-20% 的费用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-turns-sluggish-credit-business-into-a-winner-11636540201?siteid=yhoof2\">Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BX":"黑石"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-turns-sluggish-credit-business-into-a-winner-11636540201?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151092697","content_text":"Blackstone Inc.towers over most of its private-equity peers with $731 billion in assets, but the firm has had a soft underbelly for years: its sluggish lending business. Now, credit has become one of the firm’s fastest-growing segments, part of a broad shift under the leadership of President Jonathan Gray.\nAssets under management in the unit, which makes corporate loans backing leveraged buyouts for other private-equity firms, jumped 22% to $188 billion this year through Sept. 30. Private-equity assets under management rose 17% to $231.5 billion over the same period.\nBlackstone is expanding in the space by launching low-fee funds and selling them to wealthy individuals who might not qualify for products tailored to institutions like pension plans. The strategy replicated a move that Mr. Grayused to turbocharge the growthof the firm’s real-estate investment trust, called BREIT.\nIt also marks a culture shift, as the hedge-fund operations that once lent Blackstone its Wall Street cachet fall out of favor. And large money managers that traditionally focused on private equity see a bigger opportunity in debt, where the addressable market could be as large as $40 trillion.\nThe resurgent credit business should help Blackstone in the race for investor dollars against its principal competitors, includingApollo Global ManagementInc.,Ares ManagementCorp.and KKR & Co.\nDebt specialists Apollo and Ares have pledged to boost assets to $1 trillion and $500 billion, respectively, in coming years, while KKR more than doubled its credit business this year, primarily by purchasing insurer Global Atlantic Financial Group Ltd. Only Ares grew its own credit business as fast as Blackstone this year.\nSeveral large credit firms vied to win the lead role providing $2.6 billion of loans this year for private-equity firm Thoma Bravo LP’s leveraged buyout of Stamps.com Inc. Blackstone walked away with the top spot by offering to backstop the entire amount, Dwight Scott, head of Blackstone Credit, said.\nThe firm historically operated in debt markets through GSO Capital Partners, a hedge-fund manager it acquired in 2008 that was known for large, aggressive and lucrative trades. GSO’s founders— Bennett Goodman, Tripp Smith and Doug Ostrover —all left Blackstone in recent years. The credit business jettisoned the GSO name last year and has shut its hedge funds.\nBlackstone’s separate hedge-fund solutions business has shrunk in importance to 11% of total assets, down from 19.4% five years ago, according to earnings reports. John McCormick, co-head of Blackstone’s funds-of-hedge-funds business, told colleagues last month thathe plans to resign.\nThe hedge-fund solutions unit’s “revenues and earnings have doubled in the last three years and the business will continue to expand through new offerings and senior hires,” a Blackstone spokeswoman said.\nThe rebranded Blackstone Credit is aggressively marketing less-risky, cheaper funds to individual investors.\n“It’s all about de-risking the portfolio,” said Mr. Scott. Blackstone believes the lower-fee products allow it to deliver attractive returns to investors without reaching for yield by purchasing debt with a higher chance of default, he said.\nThe credit revamp is part of Blackstone’s aim to achieve $1 trillion in assets by 2026. To get there, Mr. Gray has encouraged Blackstone’s business headsto embrace a thematic investing approachfocused on fast-growing industries. In credit, this translates into more loans to sectors such as technology and life sciences.\nBlackstone earlier this year launched BCRED, a business development company, or BDC, which makes direct loans to medium-size companies. BCRED raised $9.4 billion through share sales this year, primarily to individual investors.\nBlackstone made its first big foray into credit whenit bought GSOfor about $1 billion. GSO hedge funds excelled at big risky bets on distressed debt thatreturned as much as $100 million each.\nThe firm also joined with Franklin Square Holdings LP, which launched a BDC in 2009. GSO made the loans and split management fees with Franklin Square, which raised money from individual investors. Upfront broker and management fees averaged 9.4% in the BDC’s early days, high enough toattract scrutiny from regulators.\nCredit assets jumped about fivefold to $128 billion in the decade after the GSO acquisition as the business built a mixture of BDCs, hedge funds and securitized bundles of low-rated debt known as collateralized loan obligations.\nThe growth stalled out in mid-2018 when the venture with Franklin Square dissolved over the profit-sharing split and differing growth strategies. Blackstoneexited from the businessin exchange for a $640 million breakup fee. The last of the GSO founders resigned shortly afterward.\nCredit assets under management rose by 3.1% to $144.3 billion from April 2018 to the end of 2019 even as Blackstone’s overall assets swelled by 27%, according to company earnings reports. Apollo’s credit assets grew 30.4% over the same period to $215.5 billion and Ares’s surged 43% to $110.5 billion.\nBlackstone spent that time designing the terms and sales engine for its new BDC, from which it earns all of the management fees, said Brad Marshall, co-head of performing credit at the firm. BCRED uses the same brokers that sell BREIT for marketing and charges a 1.25% management fee and a 12.5% performance fee. Most big competitors charge 1.5% and 17.5%-20%, respectively, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842619241,"gmtCreate":1636168955907,"gmtModify":1636168956127,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842619241","repostId":"1173813098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856142608,"gmtCreate":1635164547846,"gmtModify":1635164548042,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856142608","repostId":"2178292924","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858657951,"gmtCreate":1635048340087,"gmtModify":1635048340286,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858657951","repostId":"2177489964","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2177489964","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635042148,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2177489964?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-24 10:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓应该不会损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2177489964","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain iss","content":"<p>Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales</p><p><blockquote>Azure 和其他云产品的增长应该会掩盖影响 PC 销售的供应链问题带来的任何失望</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958e56d50bc03c5ef2195a2a879bec71\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软定于周二盘后发布第一财季收益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，由于供应链问题导致个人电脑销售放缓，这可能会对微软公司造成损害，但该公司转向云计算和云软件应该会使其免受任何盈利影响。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.</p><p><blockquote>微软定于周二下午公布第一财季收益，因为该公司将推出新的 Windows 11 操作系统，而个人电脑制造商正在努力交付新机器。如果个人电脑出货量中断，新的操作系统没有迅速采用，比尔盖茨和史蒂夫鲍尔默的微软将会面临华尔街的很多悲观情绪，但萨蒂亚纳德拉的微软应该没问题。</blockquote></p><p> That is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为分析师和投资者大多关注 Azure（微软对亚马逊公司 Amazon Web Services 的云计算解决方案）以及云软件产品，从而降低了微软 PC 业务的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> \"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"</p><p><blockquote>“持续的数字化转型势头应该会抵消 IDC 和 Gartner 混合 PC 单位出货量估计的影响，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师在报告预览中写道，后来补充道：“虽然我们对 Windows OEM 的负增长前景给我们对微软的长期盈利预期带来了压力，但我们也注意到 Windows OEM 整体微软收入和毛利润的组合正在下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Azure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google (GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).</p><p><blockquote>Azure 确保 Windows 对微软的重要性有所下降。快速增长的云业务是所有关于微软的分析师笔记的首要内容，分析师预计收入将增长 40% 左右。（尽管 AWS 和谷歌（GOOGL）云为其竞争服务提供了全部收入和运营利润，但微软除了百分比收益外，没有披露 Azure 的表现）。</blockquote></p><p> \"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“从根本上说，之前签署的长期 Azure 交易、新冠疫情后持续的云迁移、微软对云垂直化的日益关注以及微软 365 席位的强劲增长可以维持 Azure 的持久长期增长。”</blockquote></p><p> There are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.</p><p><blockquote>也有一些因素可能会促进微软的增长，尤其是在预测方面。以 197 亿美元收购专注于医疗保健的公司 Nuance 的交易预计将在今年年底前完成，微软最近透露，其基于云的收入将与 Azure 归入同一收入桶。</blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软没有透露这到底意味着什么，但瑞银分析师在9月份表示，Nuance之前的披露以及他们与该公司投资者关系团队的看涨期权使他们估计Nuance约46%的收入将基于云。他们估计，如果包括整个季度，这将意味着微软云部门在第二财季的额外销售额约为 9100 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Another bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.</p><p><blockquote>微软最受欢迎的云软件产品Office 365的价格上涨可能会在未来带来另一个上涨。微软将该产品的价格全面提高了10%以上，该公司将其描述为“自十年前推出Office 365以来的首次实质性定价更新”，这也让分析师相信微软能够承受PC市场的任何供应链压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to expect</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期待什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>分析师平均预计微软每股收益为 2.08 美元，高于一年前的每股 1.82 美元。Estimize 是一个众包平台，收集华尔街分析师以及买方分析师、基金经理、公司高管、学者和其他人的估计，其贡献者预测每股收益为 2.22 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue:</b> Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>分析师平均预测销售额为 439.3 亿美元，比一年前的 371.5 亿美元有所改善，此前微软预测收入为 433 亿美元至 442 亿美元。Estimize 贡献者预计销售额为 448.8 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计“智能云”部门的销售额为 165.2 亿美元，此前微软的预期为 164 亿美元至 166.5 亿美元；专注于云软件的“生产力和业务解决方案”部门的销售额为 146.7 亿美元，此前预测为 145 亿至 147.5 亿美元；在指导销售额为 124 亿美元至 128 亿美元之后，“更多个人计算”的收入为 127.2 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>在过去五个季度中的四个季度公布财报后，微软股价在盘中下跌，尽管上次下跌仅 0.1%。该股在过去三个月上涨了 8.1%，在过去一年上涨了 45.2%，而标普500指数在此期间分别上涨了 4.1% 和 31.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What analysts are saying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.</p><p><blockquote>分析师们对微软目前的立场基本达成一致。根据 FactSet 跟踪，36 名分析师中有 33 名将该股评级为相当于买入，而另外三名分析师将其评级为持有。</blockquote></p><p> \"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“微软目前的交易价格是我们 2023 财年 GAAP 每股收益预期的 27 倍，代表了软件领域强大的长期定位和合理估值的罕见结合。”他们将该股跑赢大盘评级为 331 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.</p><p><blockquote>曾经令人担忧的似乎是当前增长轨迹的持久性，这就是为什么 Nuance 收购和 Office 365 定价上涨被视为该股持续上涨的关键。</blockquote></p><p> \"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"</p><p><blockquote>杰弗里斯分析师写道：“整个 2022 财年，竞争将变得越来越艰难，微软 Azure/Security/Teams 的可持续增长产品组合应该会满足这一要求。”他们的评级为跑赢大盘，最近将目标价从 345 美元上调至 375 美元。“需要关注的关键项目是提高期望（据报道 Azure 高达 40 年代）、与 Nuance 的集成以及增加安全投资。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.</p><p><blockquote>微软从疫情中受益，因为公司依靠云计算能力和软件在远程工作时保持团队联系。但微软·布尔和韦德布什分析师 Daniel Ives 并不认为重返办公室是繁荣即将结束的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯在报告的预览中写道：“我们认为，华尔街关于在这个居家办公周期的另一边放缓云增长的观点与微软在该领域看到的交易活动相反。”他的评级为跑赢大盘，目标价为 375 美元。“虽然我们在过去几年中看到了这一背景的势头，但我们相信，进入 2022 财年，交易流看起来会逐渐强劲（特别是 Office 365/Azure 组合交易），因为我们估计微软仍只有 35% 通过渗透其无与伦比的安装基础云过渡。”</blockquote></p><p> Stifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel 分析师给予买入评级，目标价为 325 美元，对此表示同意。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们仍然相信，大流行正在迫使组织加快云迁移的步伐，而微软仍然是这种现代化支出的主要受益者，特别是在大型新交易势头方面，因为其广泛的堆栈使其能够捕获以前遥不可及的一级工作负载，”他们写道。</blockquote></p><p> The average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.</p><p><blockquote>截至周五下午，微软股票的平均目标价为 335.47 美元，比现行价格高出约 8.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓应该不会损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-24 10:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales</p><p><blockquote>Azure 和其他云产品的增长应该会掩盖影响 PC 销售的供应链问题带来的任何失望</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958e56d50bc03c5ef2195a2a879bec71\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软定于周二盘后发布第一财季收益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，由于供应链问题导致个人电脑销售放缓，这可能会对微软公司造成损害，但该公司转向云计算和云软件应该会使其免受任何盈利影响。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.</p><p><blockquote>微软定于周二下午公布第一财季收益，因为该公司将推出新的 Windows 11 操作系统，而个人电脑制造商正在努力交付新机器。如果个人电脑出货量中断，新的操作系统没有迅速采用，比尔盖茨和史蒂夫鲍尔默的微软将会面临华尔街的很多悲观情绪，但萨蒂亚纳德拉的微软应该没问题。</blockquote></p><p> That is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为分析师和投资者大多关注 Azure（微软对亚马逊公司 Amazon Web Services 的云计算解决方案）以及云软件产品，从而降低了微软 PC 业务的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> \"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"</p><p><blockquote>“持续的数字化转型势头应该会抵消 IDC 和 Gartner 混合 PC 单位出货量估计的影响，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师在报告预览中写道，后来补充道：“虽然我们对 Windows OEM 的负增长前景给我们对微软的长期盈利预期带来了压力，但我们也注意到 Windows OEM 整体微软收入和毛利润的组合正在下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Azure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google (GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).</p><p><blockquote>Azure 确保 Windows 对微软的重要性有所下降。快速增长的云业务是所有关于微软的分析师笔记的首要内容，分析师预计收入将增长 40% 左右。（尽管 AWS 和谷歌（GOOGL）云为其竞争服务提供了全部收入和运营利润，但微软除了百分比收益外，没有披露 Azure 的表现）。</blockquote></p><p> \"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“从根本上说，之前签署的长期 Azure 交易、新冠疫情后持续的云迁移、微软对云垂直化的日益关注以及微软 365 席位的强劲增长可以维持 Azure 的持久长期增长。”</blockquote></p><p> There are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.</p><p><blockquote>也有一些因素可能会促进微软的增长，尤其是在预测方面。以 197 亿美元收购专注于医疗保健的公司 Nuance 的交易预计将在今年年底前完成，微软最近透露，其基于云的收入将与 Azure 归入同一收入桶。</blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软没有透露这到底意味着什么，但瑞银分析师在9月份表示，Nuance之前的披露以及他们与该公司投资者关系团队的看涨期权使他们估计Nuance约46%的收入将基于云。他们估计，如果包括整个季度，这将意味着微软云部门在第二财季的额外销售额约为 9100 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Another bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.</p><p><blockquote>微软最受欢迎的云软件产品Office 365的价格上涨可能会在未来带来另一个上涨。微软将该产品的价格全面提高了10%以上，该公司将其描述为“自十年前推出Office 365以来的首次实质性定价更新”，这也让分析师相信微软能够承受PC市场的任何供应链压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to expect</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期待什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>分析师平均预计微软每股收益为 2.08 美元，高于一年前的每股 1.82 美元。Estimize 是一个众包平台，收集华尔街分析师以及买方分析师、基金经理、公司高管、学者和其他人的估计，其贡献者预测每股收益为 2.22 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue:</b> Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>分析师平均预测销售额为 439.3 亿美元，比一年前的 371.5 亿美元有所改善，此前微软预测收入为 433 亿美元至 442 亿美元。Estimize 贡献者预计销售额为 448.8 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计“智能云”部门的销售额为 165.2 亿美元，此前微软的预期为 164 亿美元至 166.5 亿美元；专注于云软件的“生产力和业务解决方案”部门的销售额为 146.7 亿美元，此前预测为 145 亿至 147.5 亿美元；在指导销售额为 124 亿美元至 128 亿美元之后，“更多个人计算”的收入为 127.2 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>在过去五个季度中的四个季度公布财报后，微软股价在盘中下跌，尽管上次下跌仅 0.1%。该股在过去三个月上涨了 8.1%，在过去一年上涨了 45.2%，而标普500指数在此期间分别上涨了 4.1% 和 31.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What analysts are saying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.</p><p><blockquote>分析师们对微软目前的立场基本达成一致。根据 FactSet 跟踪，36 名分析师中有 33 名将该股评级为相当于买入，而另外三名分析师将其评级为持有。</blockquote></p><p> \"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“微软目前的交易价格是我们 2023 财年 GAAP 每股收益预期的 27 倍，代表了软件领域强大的长期定位和合理估值的罕见结合。”他们将该股跑赢大盘评级为 331 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.</p><p><blockquote>曾经令人担忧的似乎是当前增长轨迹的持久性，这就是为什么 Nuance 收购和 Office 365 定价上涨被视为该股持续上涨的关键。</blockquote></p><p> \"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"</p><p><blockquote>杰弗里斯分析师写道：“整个 2022 财年，竞争将变得越来越艰难，微软 Azure/Security/Teams 的可持续增长产品组合应该会满足这一要求。”他们的评级为跑赢大盘，最近将目标价从 345 美元上调至 375 美元。“需要关注的关键项目是提高期望（据报道 Azure 高达 40 年代）、与 Nuance 的集成以及增加安全投资。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.</p><p><blockquote>微软从疫情中受益，因为公司依靠云计算能力和软件在远程工作时保持团队联系。但微软·布尔和韦德布什分析师 Daniel Ives 并不认为重返办公室是繁荣即将结束的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯在报告的预览中写道：“我们认为，华尔街关于在这个居家办公周期的另一边放缓云增长的观点与微软在该领域看到的交易活动相反。”他的评级为跑赢大盘，目标价为 375 美元。“虽然我们在过去几年中看到了这一背景的势头，但我们相信，进入 2022 财年，交易流看起来会逐渐强劲（特别是 Office 365/Azure 组合交易），因为我们估计微软仍只有 35% 通过渗透其无与伦比的安装基础云过渡。”</blockquote></p><p> Stifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel 分析师给予买入评级，目标价为 325 美元，对此表示同意。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们仍然相信，大流行正在迫使组织加快云迁移的步伐，而微软仍然是这种现代化支出的主要受益者，特别是在大型新交易势头方面，因为其广泛的堆栈使其能够捕获以前遥不可及的一级工作负载，”他们写道。</blockquote></p><p> The average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.</p><p><blockquote>截至周五下午，微软股票的平均目标价为 335.47 美元，比现行价格高出约 8.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pc-slowdown-shouldnt-hurt-microsoft-earnings-and-heres-why-11635003215?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pc-slowdown-shouldnt-hurt-microsoft-earnings-and-heres-why-11635003215?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2177489964","content_text":"Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales\nMicrosoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.\nThe slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.\nMicrosoft is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.\nThat is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.\n\"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"\nAzure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google (GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).\n\"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.\nThere are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.\nWhile Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.\nAnother bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.\nWhat to expect\nEarnings: Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.\nRevenue: Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.\nAnalyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.\nStock movement: Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.\nWhat analysts are saying\nAnalysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.\n\"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.\nThe once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.\n\"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"\nMicrosoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.\n\"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"\nStifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.\n\"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.\nThe average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853859056,"gmtCreate":1634791249012,"gmtModify":1634791249244,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853859056","repostId":"1132338087","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132338087","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634787362,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1132338087?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 11:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s earnings show is more cautious — and yes, boring — without Elon around<blockquote>特斯拉的财报在没有埃隆的情况下更加谨慎--是的，也更加无聊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132338087","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Tesla Inc. was more cautious Wednesday in both its shareholder letter and its conference call, its f","content":"<p>Tesla Inc. was more cautious Wednesday in both its shareholder letter and its conference call, its first since Chief Executive Elon Musk bowed out of the quarterly earnings show, and it may have cost the stock.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周三在其股东信和电话会议中都更加谨慎，这是自首席执行官埃隆·马斯克退出季度财报电话会议以来的首次，这可能会导致该股下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The electric-vehicle maker reported record third-quarter earnings and revenue Wednesday, but shares still declined 1.6% in after-hours trading. Tesla disclosed that chip shortages, port congestion and other supply-chain issues were hurting its ability to make as many cars as it could sell, and toned down its forecasts language. Tesla’s revenue of $13.8 billion came in a bit shy of analysts’ estimates of $14 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车制造商周三公布了创纪录的第三季度盈利和收入，但股价在盘后交易中仍下跌 1.6%。特斯拉透露，芯片短缺、港口拥堵和其他供应链问题正在损害其生产尽可能多的汽车的能力，并淡化了其预测语言。特斯拉的营收为 138 亿美元，略低于分析师预期的 140 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also removed a clause that had led investors to believe 2021 would be an outlier growth year, when it stated previously: “In some years it may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还删除了一项条款，该条款曾导致投资者认为 2021 年将是一个异常增长的年份： “在某些年份，它可能会增长得更快，我们预计 2021 年将是这种情况”。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s important to note while we have roughly doubled deliveries year to date, this has been exceptionally difficult to achieve,” said Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn, who took over as the main executive in Tesla’s earnings call after Musk bowed out last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉首席财务官扎卡里-柯克霍恩（Zachary Kirkhorn）说：”值得注意的是，虽然今年迄今为止我们的交付量大约翻了一番，但要实现这一目标却异常困难。</blockquote></p><p> When asked by investors what the company’s goal was for production capacity, Kirkhorn said Tesla seeks to increase growth by 50%, but wisely couched that goal in a way that Musk rarely does.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者问及公司的产能目标是什么时，柯克霍恩说，特斯拉寻求将增长率提高 50%，但明智地以马斯克很少这样做的方式表达了这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> “There may be some periods of time which we’re ahead of that. There could be some periods of time despite our best efforts where we’re slightly lower than that,” he said. “But that remains the long-term goal of the company.”</p><p><blockquote>“在某些时期，我们可能会领先。尽管我们尽了最大努力，但在某些时期，我们可能会略低于这个水平，”他说。“但这仍然是公司的长期目标”。</blockquote></p><p> Gone from the quarterly call were the often outlandish predictions by Musk, such as his infamous prediction for 1 million Teslas as self-driving robotaxis in 2020 and his forecasts for production targets that were frequently missed.</p><p><blockquote>季度看涨期权中消失的是马斯克经常古怪的预测，例如他臭名昭著的 2020 年自动驾驶机器人出租车将有 100 万辆特斯拉，以及他对生产目标的预测经常被错过。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, the more staid call, with what seemed like a few more questions from Wall Street analysts, included more discussion of operating margins, but it also included comments on some small changes to the CyberTruck, and a statement that Tesla is looking to launch it late next year. When asked about the increased regulatory scrutiny of “Full Self-Driving” mode, Kirkhorn said there are regulatory inquiries all the time, and followed up with some bland corporate speak: “We expect and embrace the scrutiny of the products and know the truth about their performance and innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters.”</p><p><blockquote>相反，更加沉稳的看涨期权似乎提出了更多华尔街分析师的问题，其中包括更多关于营业利润率的讨论，但也包括对 CyberTruck 一些小改动的评论，以及特斯拉正在寻求推出的声明明年年底。当被问及监管机构对 “全自动驾驶 ”模式的审查力度加大时，柯克霍恩说，监管机构的询问一直在进行，随后又说了一些平淡无奇的企业讲话： “我们期待并接受对产品的审查，并知道产品性能和创新的真相，最终才是最重要的”。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also did not give specific revenue guidance for this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也没有给出今年的具体营收指引。</blockquote></p><p> Investors seemed to be disappointed with the company’s manufacturing constraints or the more staid nature of the comments. In after-hours trading, shares of Tesla slipped about $14, or nearly 2%, as the call continued on. While they are likely better off without the often fantastic pronouncements and over-promising comments by the controversial Musk, investors definitely felt his absence today.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎对该公司的制造限制或评论中较为沉稳的性质感到失望。在盘后交易中，随着看涨期权的继续，特斯拉股价下跌约 14 美元，跌幅近 2%。虽然如果没有备受争议的马斯克经常发表精彩的声明和过于乐观的评论，他们可能会过得更好，但投资者今天肯定感受到了他的缺席。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s earnings show is more cautious — and yes, boring — without Elon around<blockquote>特斯拉的财报在没有埃隆的情况下更加谨慎--是的，也更加无聊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s earnings show is more cautious — and yes, boring — without Elon around<blockquote>特斯拉的财报在没有埃隆的情况下更加谨慎--是的，也更加无聊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 11:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla Inc. was more cautious Wednesday in both its shareholder letter and its conference call, its first since Chief Executive Elon Musk bowed out of the quarterly earnings show, and it may have cost the stock.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周三在其股东信和电话会议中都更加谨慎，这是自首席执行官埃隆·马斯克退出季度财报电话会议以来的首次，这可能会导致该股下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The electric-vehicle maker reported record third-quarter earnings and revenue Wednesday, but shares still declined 1.6% in after-hours trading. Tesla disclosed that chip shortages, port congestion and other supply-chain issues were hurting its ability to make as many cars as it could sell, and toned down its forecasts language. Tesla’s revenue of $13.8 billion came in a bit shy of analysts’ estimates of $14 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车制造商周三公布了创纪录的第三季度盈利和收入，但股价在盘后交易中仍下跌 1.6%。特斯拉透露，芯片短缺、港口拥堵和其他供应链问题正在损害其生产尽可能多的汽车的能力，并淡化了其预测语言。特斯拉的营收为 138 亿美元，略低于分析师预期的 140 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also removed a clause that had led investors to believe 2021 would be an outlier growth year, when it stated previously: “In some years it may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还删除了一项条款，该条款曾导致投资者认为 2021 年将是一个异常增长的年份： “在某些年份，它可能会增长得更快，我们预计 2021 年将是这种情况”。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s important to note while we have roughly doubled deliveries year to date, this has been exceptionally difficult to achieve,” said Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn, who took over as the main executive in Tesla’s earnings call after Musk bowed out last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉首席财务官扎卡里-柯克霍恩（Zachary Kirkhorn）说：”值得注意的是，虽然今年迄今为止我们的交付量大约翻了一番，但要实现这一目标却异常困难。</blockquote></p><p> When asked by investors what the company’s goal was for production capacity, Kirkhorn said Tesla seeks to increase growth by 50%, but wisely couched that goal in a way that Musk rarely does.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者问及公司的产能目标是什么时，柯克霍恩说，特斯拉寻求将增长率提高 50%，但明智地以马斯克很少这样做的方式表达了这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> “There may be some periods of time which we’re ahead of that. There could be some periods of time despite our best efforts where we’re slightly lower than that,” he said. “But that remains the long-term goal of the company.”</p><p><blockquote>“在某些时期，我们可能会领先。尽管我们尽了最大努力，但在某些时期，我们可能会略低于这个水平，”他说。“但这仍然是公司的长期目标”。</blockquote></p><p> Gone from the quarterly call were the often outlandish predictions by Musk, such as his infamous prediction for 1 million Teslas as self-driving robotaxis in 2020 and his forecasts for production targets that were frequently missed.</p><p><blockquote>季度看涨期权中消失的是马斯克经常古怪的预测，例如他臭名昭著的 2020 年自动驾驶机器人出租车将有 100 万辆特斯拉，以及他对生产目标的预测经常被错过。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, the more staid call, with what seemed like a few more questions from Wall Street analysts, included more discussion of operating margins, but it also included comments on some small changes to the CyberTruck, and a statement that Tesla is looking to launch it late next year. When asked about the increased regulatory scrutiny of “Full Self-Driving” mode, Kirkhorn said there are regulatory inquiries all the time, and followed up with some bland corporate speak: “We expect and embrace the scrutiny of the products and know the truth about their performance and innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters.”</p><p><blockquote>相反，更加沉稳的看涨期权似乎提出了更多华尔街分析师的问题，其中包括更多关于营业利润率的讨论，但也包括对 CyberTruck 一些小改动的评论，以及特斯拉正在寻求推出的声明明年年底。当被问及监管机构对 “全自动驾驶 ”模式的审查力度加大时，柯克霍恩说，监管机构的询问一直在进行，随后又说了一些平淡无奇的企业讲话： “我们期待并接受对产品的审查，并知道产品性能和创新的真相，最终才是最重要的”。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also did not give specific revenue guidance for this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也没有给出今年的具体营收指引。</blockquote></p><p> Investors seemed to be disappointed with the company’s manufacturing constraints or the more staid nature of the comments. In after-hours trading, shares of Tesla slipped about $14, or nearly 2%, as the call continued on. While they are likely better off without the often fantastic pronouncements and over-promising comments by the controversial Musk, investors definitely felt his absence today.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎对该公司的制造限制或评论中较为沉稳的性质感到失望。在盘后交易中，随着看涨期权的继续，特斯拉股价下跌约 14 美元，跌幅近 2%。虽然如果没有备受争议的马斯克经常发表精彩的声明和过于乐观的评论，他们可能会过得更好，但投资者今天肯定感受到了他的缺席。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-earnings-show-is-more-cautious-and-yes-boring-without-elon-around-11634779650?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-earnings-show-is-more-cautious-and-yes-boring-without-elon-around-11634779650?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132338087","content_text":"Tesla Inc. was more cautious Wednesday in both its shareholder letter and its conference call, its first since Chief Executive Elon Musk bowed out of the quarterly earnings show, and it may have cost the stock.\nThe electric-vehicle maker reported record third-quarter earnings and revenue Wednesday, but shares still declined 1.6% in after-hours trading. Tesla disclosed that chip shortages, port congestion and other supply-chain issues were hurting its ability to make as many cars as it could sell, and toned down its forecasts language. Tesla’s revenue of $13.8 billion came in a bit shy of analysts’ estimates of $14 billion.\nTesla also removed a clause that had led investors to believe 2021 would be an outlier growth year, when it stated previously: “In some years it may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021.”\n“It’s important to note while we have roughly doubled deliveries year to date, this has been exceptionally difficult to achieve,” said Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn, who took over as the main executive in Tesla’s earnings call after Musk bowed out last quarter.\nWhen asked by investors what the company’s goal was for production capacity, Kirkhorn said Tesla seeks to increase growth by 50%, but wisely couched that goal in a way that Musk rarely does.\n“There may be some periods of time which we’re ahead of that. There could be some periods of time despite our best efforts where we’re slightly lower than that,” he said. “But that remains the long-term goal of the company.”\nGone from the quarterly call were the often outlandish predictions by Musk, such as his infamous prediction for 1 million Teslas as self-driving robotaxis in 2020 and his forecasts for production targets that were frequently missed.\nInstead, the more staid call, with what seemed like a few more questions from Wall Street analysts, included more discussion of operating margins, but it also included comments on some small changes to the CyberTruck, and a statement that Tesla is looking to launch it late next year. When asked about the increased regulatory scrutiny of “Full Self-Driving” mode, Kirkhorn said there are regulatory inquiries all the time, and followed up with some bland corporate speak: “We expect and embrace the scrutiny of the products and know the truth about their performance and innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters.”\nTesla also did not give specific revenue guidance for this year.\nInvestors seemed to be disappointed with the company’s manufacturing constraints or the more staid nature of the comments. In after-hours trading, shares of Tesla slipped about $14, or nearly 2%, as the call continued on. While they are likely better off without the often fantastic pronouncements and over-promising comments by the controversial Musk, investors definitely felt his absence today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827258382,"gmtCreate":1634483961170,"gmtModify":1634483961404,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827258382","repostId":"1132582737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132582737","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634311475,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1132582737?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通谈亚马逊股票：29% 的上涨潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132582737","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&","content":"<p>Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&P 500 since its disappointing Q2 earnings day. But JPMorgan is optimistic and sees upside ahead.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股价已成为自身成功的受害者：自令人失望的第二季度财报日以来，这家电子商务巨头的股价一直落后于标普500。但摩根大通持乐观态度，认为未来还有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Since the release of Amazon’s most recent earnings report, investors have watched shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant tank by 11%. Amazon stock underperformed an already weak S&P 500 by three percentage points over the period, leaving some to question: is AMZN still a good investment?</p><p><blockquote>自亚马逊发布最新财报以来，投资者眼睁睁地看着这家云计算和电子商务巨头的股价下跌了 11%。在此期间，亚马逊股票的表现落后于本已疲软的标普500三个百分点，这让一些人质疑：AMZN 仍然是一项不错的投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> According to experts at JPMorgan (JPM), the answer is yes. Today, the Amazon Maven presents the main reasons why five-star rated analyst Doug Anmuth believes that Amazon stock is about to surge, producing an estimated 29% in gains through 2022.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通（JPM）的专家表示，答案是肯定的。今天，亚马逊专家介绍了五星级分析师 Doug Anmuth 认为亚马逊股价即将飙升的主要原因，预计到 2022 年将上涨 29%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8e5f4ca5aa3dba7bef61858521bd17\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: J.P. Morgan offices in Hong Kong.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：摩根大通在香港的办事处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Getting back on track</b></p><p><blockquote><b>重回正轨</b></blockquote></p><p> As the Amazon Maven mentioned recently, the impact of the pandemic on shopping habits led analysts to overestimate Amazon’s revenues for the current year. This is the very first reason why JPMorgan believes that AMZN will get a green light to climb again: “[the stock is heading] closer to the last quarter of difficult COVID-19 comps in the first quarter of 2022\", which should help to reset sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>正如亚马逊专家最近提到的那样，大流行病对购物习惯的影响导致分析师高估了亚马逊本年度的收入。这也是摩根大通认为亚马逊将获得再次攀升的绿灯的第一个原因： “[该股正在]接近2022年第一季度艰难的COVID-19竞争的最后一个季度”，这应该有助于重置市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Once 2020 results are left in the rearview mirror, the e-commerce company will face more realistic, non-pandemic-inflated projections. As mentioned by Mr. Anmuth himself, \"further downward revisions to 2022 profit estimates would help lower the bar and potentially create more of a clearing event”.</p><p><blockquote>一旦2020年的业绩成为过去，这家电子商务公司将面临更现实的、非疫情膨胀的预测。正如Anmuth先生本人所提到的，“进一步下调2022年盈利预测将有助于降低门槛，并有可能创造更多的清算事件”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Holiday upside</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假期好处</b></blockquote></p><p> Another reason why Mr. Anmuth believes Amazon stock will head higher is the beginning of the holiday season. Since the market has been so cautious towards AMZN lately, the stock has been trading at lower multiples than would otherwise be considered reasonable. The holidays, on the other hand, could be the bullish catalyst that investors need to own the stock again.</p><p><blockquote>安穆斯认为亚马逊股价会走高的另一个原因是假日季的开始。由于市场最近对 AMZN 非常谨慎，该股的交易倍数一直低于合理的倍数。另一方面，假期可能是投资者重新持有该股所需的看涨催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, there is the potential for an increase in Prime subscription price in 2022. Considering an estimated 150 million US Prime members in 2021, a $20 dollar hike in annual fee would lead to an extra $3 billion heading towards Amazon’s coffers.</p><p><blockquote>最后，2022 年 Prime 订阅价格有可能上涨。考虑到 2021 年美国约有 1.5 亿 Prime 会员，年费上涨 20 美元将为亚马逊带来额外的 30 亿美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> At first glance, the figure may not seem like much, given Amazon’s revenues of $380 billion in 2020. However, keep in mind that nearly all the price increase would flow cleanly into Amazon’s operating income. On a 2020 basis, this would represent growth of nearly 15% in pre-tax profits.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，考虑到亚马逊 2020 年 3800 亿美元的收入，这个数字似乎并不多。不过，请记住，几乎所有的涨价都将直接流入亚马逊的经营利润。在2020年的基础上，这将代表税前利润增长近15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What do other experts say?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他专家怎么说？</b></blockquote></p><p> Other reports published recently also support the bullish thesis. Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI talked to 15 industry experts, including former Amazon employees, during the research firm’s Amazon Day Symposium. The analyst liked what he saw and issued a hefty $4,700 target price.</p><p><blockquote>最近发表的其他报告也支持看涨论点。Evercore ISI 的马克-马哈尼（Mark Mahaney）在亚马逊日研讨会上与 15 位行业专家进行了交谈，其中包括亚马逊前员工。这位分析师喜欢他所看到的，并给出了 4,700 美元的高额目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Wolfe Research’s Deepak Mathivanan, on the other hand,lowered his price target on AMZN modestly to $3,850 from $3,900, despite maintaining an outperform rating. Sitting closer to the consensus price target is Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan, who is bullish and believes that AMZN shares are worth $4,250.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，沃尔夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）的迪帕克-马蒂瓦南（Deepak Mathivanan）将亚马逊的目标价从3900美元小幅下调至3850美元，尽管维持了跑赢大盘的评级。高盛（Goldman Sachs）的埃里克-谢里丹（Eric Sheridan）看好亚马逊的股价，认为亚马逊的股价值为 4250 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通谈亚马逊股票：29% 的上涨潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通谈亚马逊股票：29% 的上涨潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-15 23:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&P 500 since its disappointing Q2 earnings day. But JPMorgan is optimistic and sees upside ahead.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股价已成为自身成功的受害者：自令人失望的第二季度财报日以来，这家电子商务巨头的股价一直落后于标普500。但摩根大通持乐观态度，认为未来还有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Since the release of Amazon’s most recent earnings report, investors have watched shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant tank by 11%. Amazon stock underperformed an already weak S&P 500 by three percentage points over the period, leaving some to question: is AMZN still a good investment?</p><p><blockquote>自亚马逊发布最新财报以来，投资者眼睁睁地看着这家云计算和电子商务巨头的股价下跌了 11%。在此期间，亚马逊股票的表现落后于本已疲软的标普500三个百分点，这让一些人质疑：AMZN 仍然是一项不错的投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> According to experts at JPMorgan (JPM), the answer is yes. Today, the Amazon Maven presents the main reasons why five-star rated analyst Doug Anmuth believes that Amazon stock is about to surge, producing an estimated 29% in gains through 2022.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通（JPM）的专家表示，答案是肯定的。今天，亚马逊专家介绍了五星级分析师 Doug Anmuth 认为亚马逊股价即将飙升的主要原因，预计到 2022 年将上涨 29%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8e5f4ca5aa3dba7bef61858521bd17\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: J.P. Morgan offices in Hong Kong.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：摩根大通在香港的办事处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Getting back on track</b></p><p><blockquote><b>重回正轨</b></blockquote></p><p> As the Amazon Maven mentioned recently, the impact of the pandemic on shopping habits led analysts to overestimate Amazon’s revenues for the current year. This is the very first reason why JPMorgan believes that AMZN will get a green light to climb again: “[the stock is heading] closer to the last quarter of difficult COVID-19 comps in the first quarter of 2022\", which should help to reset sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>正如亚马逊专家最近提到的那样，大流行病对购物习惯的影响导致分析师高估了亚马逊本年度的收入。这也是摩根大通认为亚马逊将获得再次攀升的绿灯的第一个原因： “[该股正在]接近2022年第一季度艰难的COVID-19竞争的最后一个季度”，这应该有助于重置市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Once 2020 results are left in the rearview mirror, the e-commerce company will face more realistic, non-pandemic-inflated projections. As mentioned by Mr. Anmuth himself, \"further downward revisions to 2022 profit estimates would help lower the bar and potentially create more of a clearing event”.</p><p><blockquote>一旦2020年的业绩成为过去，这家电子商务公司将面临更现实的、非疫情膨胀的预测。正如Anmuth先生本人所提到的，“进一步下调2022年盈利预测将有助于降低门槛，并有可能创造更多的清算事件”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Holiday upside</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假期好处</b></blockquote></p><p> Another reason why Mr. Anmuth believes Amazon stock will head higher is the beginning of the holiday season. Since the market has been so cautious towards AMZN lately, the stock has been trading at lower multiples than would otherwise be considered reasonable. The holidays, on the other hand, could be the bullish catalyst that investors need to own the stock again.</p><p><blockquote>安穆斯认为亚马逊股价会走高的另一个原因是假日季的开始。由于市场最近对 AMZN 非常谨慎，该股的交易倍数一直低于合理的倍数。另一方面，假期可能是投资者重新持有该股所需的看涨催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, there is the potential for an increase in Prime subscription price in 2022. Considering an estimated 150 million US Prime members in 2021, a $20 dollar hike in annual fee would lead to an extra $3 billion heading towards Amazon’s coffers.</p><p><blockquote>最后，2022 年 Prime 订阅价格有可能上涨。考虑到 2021 年美国约有 1.5 亿 Prime 会员，年费上涨 20 美元将为亚马逊带来额外的 30 亿美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> At first glance, the figure may not seem like much, given Amazon’s revenues of $380 billion in 2020. However, keep in mind that nearly all the price increase would flow cleanly into Amazon’s operating income. On a 2020 basis, this would represent growth of nearly 15% in pre-tax profits.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，考虑到亚马逊 2020 年 3800 亿美元的收入，这个数字似乎并不多。不过，请记住，几乎所有的涨价都将直接流入亚马逊的经营利润。在2020年的基础上，这将代表税前利润增长近15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What do other experts say?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他专家怎么说？</b></blockquote></p><p> Other reports published recently also support the bullish thesis. Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI talked to 15 industry experts, including former Amazon employees, during the research firm’s Amazon Day Symposium. The analyst liked what he saw and issued a hefty $4,700 target price.</p><p><blockquote>最近发表的其他报告也支持看涨论点。Evercore ISI 的马克-马哈尼（Mark Mahaney）在亚马逊日研讨会上与 15 位行业专家进行了交谈，其中包括亚马逊前员工。这位分析师喜欢他所看到的，并给出了 4,700 美元的高额目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Wolfe Research’s Deepak Mathivanan, on the other hand,lowered his price target on AMZN modestly to $3,850 from $3,900, despite maintaining an outperform rating. Sitting closer to the consensus price target is Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan, who is bullish and believes that AMZN shares are worth $4,250.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，沃尔夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）的迪帕克-马蒂瓦南（Deepak Mathivanan）将亚马逊的目标价从3900美元小幅下调至3850美元，尽管维持了跑赢大盘的评级。高盛（Goldman Sachs）的埃里克-谢里丹（Eric Sheridan）看好亚马逊的股价，认为亚马逊的股价值为 4250 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/jpmorgan-on-amazon-stock-29-upside-potential\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/jpmorgan-on-amazon-stock-29-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132582737","content_text":"Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&P 500 since its disappointing Q2 earnings day. But JPMorgan is optimistic and sees upside ahead.\nSince the release of Amazon’s most recent earnings report, investors have watched shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant tank by 11%. Amazon stock underperformed an already weak S&P 500 by three percentage points over the period, leaving some to question: is AMZN still a good investment?\nAccording to experts at JPMorgan (JPM), the answer is yes. Today, the Amazon Maven presents the main reasons why five-star rated analyst Doug Anmuth believes that Amazon stock is about to surge, producing an estimated 29% in gains through 2022.\nFigure 1: J.P. Morgan offices in Hong Kong.\nGetting back on track\nAs the Amazon Maven mentioned recently, the impact of the pandemic on shopping habits led analysts to overestimate Amazon’s revenues for the current year. This is the very first reason why JPMorgan believes that AMZN will get a green light to climb again: “[the stock is heading] closer to the last quarter of difficult COVID-19 comps in the first quarter of 2022\", which should help to reset sentiment.\nOnce 2020 results are left in the rearview mirror, the e-commerce company will face more realistic, non-pandemic-inflated projections. As mentioned by Mr. Anmuth himself, \"further downward revisions to 2022 profit estimates would help lower the bar and potentially create more of a clearing event”.\nHoliday upside\nAnother reason why Mr. Anmuth believes Amazon stock will head higher is the beginning of the holiday season. Since the market has been so cautious towards AMZN lately, the stock has been trading at lower multiples than would otherwise be considered reasonable. The holidays, on the other hand, could be the bullish catalyst that investors need to own the stock again.\nLastly, there is the potential for an increase in Prime subscription price in 2022. Considering an estimated 150 million US Prime members in 2021, a $20 dollar hike in annual fee would lead to an extra $3 billion heading towards Amazon’s coffers.\nAt first glance, the figure may not seem like much, given Amazon’s revenues of $380 billion in 2020. However, keep in mind that nearly all the price increase would flow cleanly into Amazon’s operating income. On a 2020 basis, this would represent growth of nearly 15% in pre-tax profits.\nWhat do other experts say?\nOther reports published recently also support the bullish thesis. Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI talked to 15 industry experts, including former Amazon employees, during the research firm’s Amazon Day Symposium. The analyst liked what he saw and issued a hefty $4,700 target price.\nWolfe Research’s Deepak Mathivanan, on the other hand,lowered his price target on AMZN modestly to $3,850 from $3,900, despite maintaining an outperform rating. Sitting closer to the consensus price target is Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan, who is bullish and believes that AMZN shares are worth $4,250.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828846644,"gmtCreate":1633905925330,"gmtModify":1633905925436,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828846644","repostId":"1115058296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115058296","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633787569,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115058296?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 21:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得购买的 3 只必备股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115058296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might","content":"<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌会有多严重、会持续多久，或者在许多情况下会导致大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常组成部分，也是加入地球上最伟大财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are no shortage of tail winds for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark <b>S&P 500</b> (SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘并不缺乏顺风。特别是，历史看起来并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，广受关注的标普500在自 1960 年以来的前八次熊市底部之后都表现得类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总是有一两次至少下跌10%。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到 17 个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“上涨”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢延长估值。截至 10 月 4 日星期一收盘，标准普尔 500 指数的席勒市盈率高于 37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去 10 年经通货膨胀调整后的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率，但历史非常清楚，当标准普尔500的席勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四个例子中，基础广泛的指数损失了至少20%的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's not normal for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>甚至保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义未偿保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务的使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自 1995 年以来，已有三次保证金债务的使用量在某一年跃升了至少 60%。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机爆发之前。第三次是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>这张桌子似乎是标普500大幅但健康回调的一套。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些稳健股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者焦虑，但它们也是抢购的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长远来看，它无疑是投资者最大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个滚动的 20 年期间不会为投资者产生正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价收购伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或回调，以下三只 surefire 股票可以放心地买入。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have generated more surefire returns for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票能比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自 1965 年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监督该公司 A 类股票 (BRK.A) 的平均年回报率为 20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今为止的回报，巴菲特在 56 年内创造了约 6000 亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约 3,300,000% 的回报率。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张期往往会持续更长的时间。因此，他将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合纳入了银行股、科技股和必需消费品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔不支付股息，但它有望在 2021 年获得超过 50 亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，收益率接近 5%。由于股息股票几乎总是有利可图且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，追随巴菲特的脚步往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>销售力量</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is <b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续为股东提供且非常适合在股市崩盘期间购买的 surefire 股票是<b>销售力量网站</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CRM），提供基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题，监督在线营销活动，以及对现有客户群进行预测销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share <b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and <b>Adobe</b> possessed last year on a <i>combined</i> basis. A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年，Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比市场份额高出整整一个百分点<b>甲骨文</b>,<b>树液</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年被附身在<i>联合的</i>基础。一点点股市动荡不会改变对 CRM 软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱 Salesforce 的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫一直是收购专家。对 MuleSoft、Tableau 以及最近的 Slack Technologies 的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，并将在未来五年内使年销售额翻一番以上，达到 500 亿美元。投资者在 Salesforce 股票上获得的任何折扣都应该被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises is <b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果发生股市崩盘或调整，值得购买的第三只肯定股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商 YouTube 的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a 91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎没有移动针头。根据GlobalStats的数据，谷歌在9月份占据了全球搜索引擎市场的92%。回顾两年，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%到93%的份额。作为广告商的明确选择，Alphabet 旗下的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet在互联网搜索领域名副其实的垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商 YouTube 第二季度广告收入激增 84%，年销售额达到 280 亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为这个星球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's absolutely no reason for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至 6 月份的季度销售额增长了 54%，目前年销售额超过 180 亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，应该会发展成为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩溃或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在你的购买清单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得购买的 3 只必备股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得购买的 3 只必备股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 21:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌会有多严重、会持续多久，或者在许多情况下会导致大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常组成部分，也是加入地球上最伟大财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are no shortage of tail winds for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark <b>S&P 500</b> (SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘并不缺乏顺风。特别是，历史看起来并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，广受关注的标普500在自 1960 年以来的前八次熊市底部之后都表现得类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总是有一两次至少下跌10%。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到 17 个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“上涨”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢延长估值。截至 10 月 4 日星期一收盘，标准普尔 500 指数的席勒市盈率高于 37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去 10 年经通货膨胀调整后的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率，但历史非常清楚，当标准普尔500的席勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四个例子中，基础广泛的指数损失了至少20%的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's not normal for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>甚至保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义未偿保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务的使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自 1995 年以来，已有三次保证金债务的使用量在某一年跃升了至少 60%。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机爆发之前。第三次是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>这张桌子似乎是标普500大幅但健康回调的一套。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些稳健股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者焦虑，但它们也是抢购的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长远来看，它无疑是投资者最大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个滚动的 20 年期间不会为投资者产生正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价收购伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或回调，以下三只 surefire 股票可以放心地买入。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have generated more surefire returns for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票能比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自 1965 年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监督该公司 A 类股票 (BRK.A) 的平均年回报率为 20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今为止的回报，巴菲特在 56 年内创造了约 6000 亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约 3,300,000% 的回报率。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张期往往会持续更长的时间。因此，他将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合纳入了银行股、科技股和必需消费品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔不支付股息，但它有望在 2021 年获得超过 50 亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，收益率接近 5%。由于股息股票几乎总是有利可图且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，追随巴菲特的脚步往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>销售力量</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is <b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续为股东提供且非常适合在股市崩盘期间购买的 surefire 股票是<b>销售力量网站</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CRM），提供基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题，监督在线营销活动，以及对现有客户群进行预测销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share <b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and <b>Adobe</b> possessed last year on a <i>combined</i> basis. A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年，Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比市场份额高出整整一个百分点<b>甲骨文</b>,<b>树液</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年被附身在<i>联合的</i>基础。一点点股市动荡不会改变对 CRM 软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱 Salesforce 的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫一直是收购专家。对 MuleSoft、Tableau 以及最近的 Slack Technologies 的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，并将在未来五年内使年销售额翻一番以上，达到 500 亿美元。投资者在 Salesforce 股票上获得的任何折扣都应该被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises is <b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果发生股市崩盘或调整，值得购买的第三只肯定股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商 YouTube 的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a 91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎没有移动针头。根据GlobalStats的数据，谷歌在9月份占据了全球搜索引擎市场的92%。回顾两年，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%到93%的份额。作为广告商的明确选择，Alphabet 旗下的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet在互联网搜索领域名副其实的垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商 YouTube 第二季度广告收入激增 84%，年销售额达到 280 亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为这个星球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's absolutely no reason for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至 6 月份的季度销售额增长了 54%，目前年销售额超过 180 亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，应该会发展成为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩溃或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在你的购买清单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","CRM":"赛富时","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115058296","content_text":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.\nTo be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.\nHistory isn't the market's friend in the near term\nAt the moment, there are no shortage of tail winds for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.\nFor instance, the widely followed S&P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"\nHistory is no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.\nEven the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's not normal for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.\nThe table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&P 500.\nA crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks\nWhile big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.\nFor example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.\nShould this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nBerkshire Hathaway\nFew stocks have generated more surefire returns for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.\nThough there is a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.\nAnother reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.\nLong story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.\nSalesforce\nAnother surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).\nFor those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.\nCloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share Oracle,SAP,Microsoft, and Adobe possessed last year on a combined basis. A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.\nWhat's more, CEO Marc Benioff has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.\nAlphabet\nA third surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises is Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.\nWhen it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a 91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.\nWhat might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.\nMeanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's absolutely no reason for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"CRM":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821444715,"gmtCreate":1633780986197,"gmtModify":1633780986262,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821444715","repostId":"1167388174","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821334624,"gmtCreate":1633697370690,"gmtModify":1633697370873,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821334624","repostId":"1120277097","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120277097","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633696257,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120277097?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. economy adds 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecast<blockquote>美国经济9月份新增就业岗位19.4万个，远低于预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120277097","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Oct 8) The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower pace than expected pace in September, a pessi","content":"<p>(Oct 8) The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower pace than expected pace in September, a pessimistic sign at a time of concerns over the path of the pandemic, stubbornly high inflation and dysfunction in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>（10月8日）美国经济9月份创造就业岗位的速度远低于预期，这是一个悲观的迹象，因为人们对疫情的发展轨迹、顽固的高通胀和华盛顿的功能障碍感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 500,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, against the expectation for 5.1%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，本月非农就业人数仅增加 19.4 万人，而道琼斯指数估计为 50 万人。失业率降至4.8%，而预期为5.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The headline number was hurt by a 123,000 decline in government payrolls, while private payrolls increased by 317,000.</p><p><blockquote>总体数字受到政府就业人数减少12.3万人的影响，而私人就业人数增加了31.7万人。</blockquote></p><p> Dow trades virtually unchanged at 34,645,Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数几乎没有变化，报 34,645 点，纳斯达克 100 指数期货上涨 0.2%</blockquote></p><p> Gold prices pop after September jobs report, December gold up 0.4% at $1,769.20/oz.</p><p><blockquote>9月就业报告公布后，金价上涨，12月金价上涨0.4%，至1769.20美元/盎司。</blockquote></p><p> August job gains raised to 366,000 from 235,000; July job gains revised up to 1.09 from 1.05 million</p><p><blockquote>8 月份新增就业岗位从 235,000 个增加到 366,000 个；7 月份新增就业岗位从 105 万个修正至 109 个</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan Chase stock down 0.1% premarket after jobs data.</p><p><blockquote>就业数据公布后，摩根大通股价盘前下跌 0.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. economy adds 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecast<blockquote>美国经济9月份新增就业岗位19.4万个，远低于预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. economy adds 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecast<blockquote>美国经济9月份新增就业岗位19.4万个，远低于预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-08 20:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Oct 8) The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower pace than expected pace in September, a pessimistic sign at a time of concerns over the path of the pandemic, stubbornly high inflation and dysfunction in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>（10月8日）美国经济9月份创造就业岗位的速度远低于预期，这是一个悲观的迹象，因为人们对疫情的发展轨迹、顽固的高通胀和华盛顿的功能障碍感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 500,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, against the expectation for 5.1%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，本月非农就业人数仅增加 19.4 万人，而道琼斯指数估计为 50 万人。失业率降至4.8%，而预期为5.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The headline number was hurt by a 123,000 decline in government payrolls, while private payrolls increased by 317,000.</p><p><blockquote>总体数字受到政府就业人数减少12.3万人的影响，而私人就业人数增加了31.7万人。</blockquote></p><p> Dow trades virtually unchanged at 34,645,Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数几乎没有变化，报 34,645 点，纳斯达克 100 指数期货上涨 0.2%</blockquote></p><p> Gold prices pop after September jobs report, December gold up 0.4% at $1,769.20/oz.</p><p><blockquote>9月就业报告公布后，金价上涨，12月金价上涨0.4%，至1769.20美元/盎司。</blockquote></p><p> August job gains raised to 366,000 from 235,000; July job gains revised up to 1.09 from 1.05 million</p><p><blockquote>8 月份新增就业岗位从 235,000 个增加到 366,000 个；7 月份新增就业岗位从 105 万个修正至 109 个</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan Chase stock down 0.1% premarket after jobs data.</p><p><blockquote>就业数据公布后，摩根大通股价盘前下跌 0.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120277097","content_text":"(Oct 8) The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower pace than expected pace in September, a pessimistic sign at a time of concerns over the path of the pandemic, stubbornly high inflation and dysfunction in Washington.\nNonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 500,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, against the expectation for 5.1%.\nThe headline number was hurt by a 123,000 decline in government payrolls, while private payrolls increased by 317,000.\nDow trades virtually unchanged at 34,645,Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.2%\nGold prices pop after September jobs report, December gold up 0.4% at $1,769.20/oz.\nAugust job gains raised to 366,000 from 235,000; July job gains revised up to 1.09 from 1.05 million\nJ.P. Morgan Chase stock down 0.1% premarket after jobs data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864710726,"gmtCreate":1633147519584,"gmtModify":1633147519769,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864710726","repostId":"2172631966","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}