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2021-08-01
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2021-07-25
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2021-07-18
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2021-07-15
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JPMorgan Strategist Warns of Dot-Com Era ‘Bull Trap’ in Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通策略师警告方舟基金存在互联网时代的“牛市陷阱”</blockquote>
(Bloomberg) -- Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF is showing many of the bubble-like traits seen in growth-b
JPMorgan Strategist Warns of Dot-Com Era ‘Bull Trap’ in Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通策略师警告方舟基金存在互联网时代的“牛市陷阱”</blockquote>
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2021-07-11
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The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>
It seemed to be only a matter of time. When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de
The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>
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2021-07-01
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3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘中值得购买的 3 只昂贵科技股</blockquote>
Get ready to buy Snowflake and two other hot tech stocks if this frothy market collapses.
3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘中值得购买的 3 只昂贵科技股</blockquote>
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2021-06-24
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The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>
5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over. One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan
The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>
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2021-06-17
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2021-06-17
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2021-06-13
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like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147290839","repostId":"1165217903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165217903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626357982,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1165217903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Strategist Warns of Dot-Com Era ‘Bull Trap’ in Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通策略师警告方舟基金存在互联网时代的“牛市陷阱”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165217903","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF is showing many of the bubble-like traits seen in growth-b","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF is showing many of the bubble-like traits seen in growth-based funds in 2000 and investors should consider betting against it with options, according to ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--据报道，凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）的旗舰ETF显示出2000年成长型基金中出现的许多类似泡沫的特征，投资者应考虑用期权做空它。</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-strategist-warns-dot-com-130235186.html\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-strategist-warns-dot-com-130235186.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Strategist Warns of Dot-Com Era ‘Bull Trap’ in Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通策略师警告方舟基金存在互联网时代的“牛市陷阱”</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Strategist Warns of Dot-Com Era ‘Bull Trap’ in Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通策略师警告方舟基金存在互联网时代的“牛市陷阱”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 22:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF is showing many of the bubble-like traits seen in growth-based funds in 2000 and investors should consider betting against it with options, according to ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--据报道，凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）的旗舰ETF显示出2000年成长型基金中出现的许多类似泡沫的特征，投资者应考虑用期权做空它。</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-strategist-warns-dot-com-130235186.html\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-strategist-warns-dot-com-130235186.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-strategist-warns-dot-com-130235186.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-strategist-warns-dot-com-130235186.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165217903","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF is showing many of the bubble-like traits seen in growth-based funds in 2000 and investors should consider betting against it with options, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Shawn Quigg.\nThe derivatives strategist reckons a second-half increase in Treasury yields could trigger declines for the ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund (ticker ARKK), which is up about 19% since mid-May.\n“Enter the bull trap reversal,” Quigg wrote in a Thursday note to clients. “A looming rise in yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK shares lower, in addition to the continued outperformance of large staple-tech stocks over disruptive-tech stocks, and pressing ARKK into the capitulation phase.”\nThe 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen more than 40 basis points to about 1.32% from a recent peak at the end of March, helping spur the rebound for ARKK. Quigg argues that’s a technical move, set to be undone as the reopening trade reasserts itself in the rest of the year.\nWood’s Ark Investment Management enjoyed a stellar start to 2021 propelled by gains in sectors such as electric vehicles, biotech and cryptocurrencies, as well as advances in stocks that benefited from the stay-at-home trade. But many of those themes faltered, and the firm’s main ETF fell more than 35% from mid-February through mid-May.\nJPMorgan expects cyclical and value assets to outperform amid the ongoing recovery and reopening from the pandemic. Value stocks just had their worst month versus growth counterparts in two decades, but the firm’s strategists see that as a pause in a rally that’s set to resume.\nQuigg recommends investors buy ARKK October $105 puts -- the strike price about 11% below the ETF’s closing level on Wednesday -- to take advantage of implied volatility that remains low even amid “the potential for shares to enter a broader capitulation phase,” he wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148469167,"gmtCreate":1626006164759,"gmtModify":1631890294463,"author":{"id":"3584863878578239","authorId":"3584863878578239","name":"Chatcha","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584863878578239","idStr":"3584863878578239"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"please comment and like","listText":"please comment and like","text":"please comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148469167","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，它们何时会再次坠毁的时间已经在流逝。会是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经过去半年了，核心 “备忘录股票 ”的交易价格仍然处于研究这些股票多年的人认为离谱的水平。Clover Health Investments (CLOV) 和 Newegg Commerce (NEGG) 等新名称最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易员--长期以来被嘲笑为 “哑巴钱 ”--的集体努力成功地让股市飙升，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型的迹象，也没有表现出足以证明其估值的利润，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告称其关键的网络安全部门将达到收入指导的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大型经纪商的交易量较 2 月份的峰值略有下降，但仍高于疫情爆发前的两到三倍。数量惊人的这种活动发生在散户交易者青睐的股票中。例如，AMC院线控股公司（AMC）6 月份的日均交易额达到 131 亿美元，超过了苹果（AAPL）的 95 亿美元和亚马逊（AMZN）的 103 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍然致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多的交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉捏酸面团面包；交易者只会变得越来越饥饿。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种食欲，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。目前，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“美国海军电子技术员布兰登-卢切克（Brandon Luczek）在给《巴伦周刊》的一封电子邮件中写道：”我看到'逢低买入'的情绪一刻也没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票飙升是由散户投资者交易的增加推动的。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，超过1000万人开设了新账户。这一记录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，在今年不到一半的时间里，经纪商已经增加了超过 1000 万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这种现象的推车，也是马。他们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这一行动推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在 1 月底和 2 月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财（SCHW）最近的一项调查发现，15%的现有交易者在2020年后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>激增中最突出的参与者是 Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了 550 万个资金账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布，第一季度吸引了 160 万 35 岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了 223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在 Robinhood 零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在 2019 年将佣金降至零。这为新客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲置现金进行交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在套现。富达希望在投资者获得驾照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅 13 岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood 正在乘势而上进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的 10 倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与他们的老同行不同。E*Trade 交易主管克里斯-拉金（Chris Larkin）说，多年来，“ETF 一直备受青睐”，E*Trade 现归摩根士丹利（MS）所有。但挑选个股显然是 “2021 年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，随着世界各地的投资者押注疫情复苏并避免疲软的债券收益率，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但 ETF 不像股票那样点亮留言板。这并不是说顶级公司的单行道。游戏驿站二月份确实下跌，华尔街享受了幸灾乐祸的时刻。它并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>“盈透证券（Interactive Brokers）首席策略师史蒂夫-索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）写道：”就像蝉一样，备忘录交易者在表面上隐匿了几个月后又重新活跃起来。索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种货币转向另一种货币。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”我不认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅回调后，备忘录股票卷土重来完全是巧合。</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为备忘录股票是一个 “独立的板块”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对备忘录股票革命的反应一直是孤立专业人士认为不理性的市场部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也在放弃报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样把零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来 17 年内消失。股票交易已经发生了永久性的变化。今年，零售活动占股本量的 24%，高于 2019 年的 15%。新信条的追随者不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚法学院（Columbia Law School）专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚-米茨（Joshua Mitts）说：”这实际上反映了我们所看到的趋势的逆转，即与个别公司的接触越来越少。“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她所投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>— Matt Kohrs，26 岁，每天在 YouTube 上直播股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早早加入的人的生活，并且仍然在更高的名字上。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了纽约程序员的工作，搬到了费城，并开始在YouTube上每天7个小时直播股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube 拥有 35 万粉丝，它正在支付账单。科尔斯说，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以拿到与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给迷因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以阻止他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 甚至在上周取消了一项拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢 Reddit 人群的反响。过去一年，AMC 的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官亚当-阿伦（Adam Aron）在推特上表示，他看到了 “许多人赞成，许多人反对 ”对他增发 2500 万股股票的提议的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的 AMC 年会上进行表决。该公司没有回答有关如何调查股东的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室里决定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者正在花费更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕零售行动进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在 “阿尔法”，但要实现这一目标可能需要一些紧张的数字运算。当然，并不是所有的留言板聊天都会导致价格持续上涨，如果没有大量的数据分析，零售订单流很难与机构流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在购买哪些股票和正在出售哪些股票的投资者来说，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的 20% 的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的 20% 的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他说：”他们认为这几乎就像一份保险，以限制他们的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于零售商来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动是由社区精神支撑的。其背后的力量既是情感上的，也是道德上的，也是经济上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是希望证明自己，并像利润一样惩罚保守派。他们互相学习市场，有时会放大或揭穿关于华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票运动与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“26 岁的科尔斯说：”华尔街让我们的经济陷入困境，但没有人因此惹上麻烦。“所以，我认为他们认为我们不仅可以赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格 (Claire Hirschberg) 是一名 28 岁的工会组织者，她在 1 月份从朋友那里听说 Robinhood 上购买了价值约 50 美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他是一名长期的资金经理。“她笑着说：”他很生气我买了游戏驿站，还不肯卖。“这让我想永远拿着它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像老华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，在你成为合伙人之前，你不会打菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你从不离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而且不是按顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万散户交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认财务损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对本集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不规范语言。你是 “猿类 ”或 “弱智 ”大军的一员。你坚持住，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>集体行动不仅仅是为了精神支持。交易策略取决于人们保持买入压力，迫使做空，或买入看涨期权，从而引发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔 (Keith Gill) 在二月份众议院金融服务委员会听证会上虚拟露面，成为 Reddit 散户交易员大军推高游戏驿站股价的代言人。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来给备忘录运动注入氧气。6 月中旬，AMC 的空头权益占该股流通量的 17%，低于 1 月份的 28%，但降幅不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格上涨，空头们也控制不住自己。多年来一直关注游戏驿站的韦德布什证券分析师迈克尔-帕切特（Michael Pachter）说，他们开始 “流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”。“他说：”让我感到震惊的是精神错乱的定义，就是一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头却不断出现。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思-吉尔（Keith Gill）和他的 Reddit raiders 一直在挤压他们，而且一直在起作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit 人群需要团结起来，但该社区有时会出现裂缝。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和 AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经崩溃。 Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 在 1 月底和 6 月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于 1 月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心 wallstreetbets——激发游戏驿站狂热的最初 Reddit 留言板——发展如此之快，以至于它已经失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。有些人搬到了其他留言板，如 r/superstonk，希望能重现老社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司 Hype Equity 的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔 (Travis Rehl) 表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣。现在，他看到了一种不断增长的趋势，即股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的聊天，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这让人怀疑什么是真正的讨论，什么是某人只想炒作的东西。wallstreetbets 的版主禁止在该平台上操纵市场，Rehl 表示，他们似乎正在努力遏制错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>“索斯尼克说：”如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让一只股票在短时间内上涨 10%、20%，甚至 50%，那么你就有巨大的动力去做这件事。</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>美国证券交易委员会正在关注留言板上的有趣交易。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler）和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则，目的是增加保护散户交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减缓交易速度或使交易成本更高，也可能激怒零售人群。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一能遏制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment 行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根 (Dan Egan) 认为，这种势头可能会在 9 月份耗尽。即使是 “猿猴 ”也有责任。“他说：”孩子们开始重返校园；家长们也可以自由地再次上班了。“那是下一次从房间里抽出氧气的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金引发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪和游戏驿站乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，那么只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注，这几乎肯定是一件好事。许多新零售商表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授亨德里克-贝森宾德（Hendrik Bessembinder）在2018年发表了一项开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票，亏损的可能性大于赚钱的可能性”。简而言之，挑选单只股票并持有集中投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是对新一波交易感到鼓舞。“贝森宾德说：”我欢迎零售交易的增加，欢迎股票市场成为一个广泛参与的地方。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，它们何时会再次坠毁的时间已经在流逝。会是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经过去半年了，核心 “备忘录股票 ”的交易价格仍然处于研究这些股票多年的人认为离谱的水平。Clover Health Investments (CLOV) 和 Newegg Commerce (NEGG) 等新名称最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易员--长期以来被嘲笑为 “哑巴钱 ”--的集体努力成功地让股市飙升，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型的迹象，也没有表现出足以证明其估值的利润，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告称其关键的网络安全部门将达到收入指导的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大型经纪商的交易量较 2 月份的峰值略有下降，但仍高于疫情爆发前的两到三倍。数量惊人的这种活动发生在散户交易者青睐的股票中。例如，AMC院线控股公司（AMC）6 月份的日均交易额达到 131 亿美元，超过了苹果（AAPL）的 95 亿美元和亚马逊（AMZN）的 103 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍然致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多的交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉捏酸面团面包；交易者只会变得越来越饥饿。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种食欲，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。目前，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“美国海军电子技术员布兰登-卢切克（Brandon Luczek）在给《巴伦周刊》的一封电子邮件中写道：”我看到'逢低买入'的情绪一刻也没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票飙升是由散户投资者交易的增加推动的。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，超过1000万人开设了新账户。这一记录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，在今年不到一半的时间里，经纪商已经增加了超过 1000 万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这种现象的推车，也是马。他们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这一行动推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在 1 月底和 2 月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财（SCHW）最近的一项调查发现，15%的现有交易者在2020年后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>激增中最突出的参与者是 Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了 550 万个资金账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布，第一季度吸引了 160 万 35 岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了 223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在 Robinhood 零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在 2019 年将佣金降至零。这为新客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲置现金进行交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在套现。富达希望在投资者获得驾照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅 13 岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood 正在乘势而上进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的 10 倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与他们的老同行不同。E*Trade 交易主管克里斯-拉金（Chris Larkin）说，多年来，“ETF 一直备受青睐”，E*Trade 现归摩根士丹利（MS）所有。但挑选个股显然是 “2021 年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，随着世界各地的投资者押注疫情复苏并避免疲软的债券收益率，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但 ETF 不像股票那样点亮留言板。这并不是说顶级公司的单行道。游戏驿站二月份确实下跌，华尔街享受了幸灾乐祸的时刻。它并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>“盈透证券（Interactive Brokers）首席策略师史蒂夫-索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）写道：”就像蝉一样，备忘录交易者在表面上隐匿了几个月后又重新活跃起来。索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种货币转向另一种货币。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”我不认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅回调后，备忘录股票卷土重来完全是巧合。</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为备忘录股票是一个 “独立的板块”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对备忘录股票革命的反应一直是孤立专业人士认为不理性的市场部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也在放弃报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样把零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来 17 年内消失。股票交易已经发生了永久性的变化。今年，零售活动占股本量的 24%，高于 2019 年的 15%。新信条的追随者不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚法学院（Columbia Law School）专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚-米茨（Joshua Mitts）说：”这实际上反映了我们所看到的趋势的逆转，即与个别公司的接触越来越少。“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她所投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>— Matt Kohrs，26 岁，每天在 YouTube 上直播股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早早加入的人的生活，并且仍然在更高的名字上。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了纽约程序员的工作，搬到了费城，并开始在YouTube上每天7个小时直播股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube 拥有 35 万粉丝，它正在支付账单。科尔斯说，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以拿到与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给迷因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以阻止他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 甚至在上周取消了一项拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢 Reddit 人群的反响。过去一年，AMC 的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官亚当-阿伦（Adam Aron）在推特上表示，他看到了 “许多人赞成，许多人反对 ”对他增发 2500 万股股票的提议的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的 AMC 年会上进行表决。该公司没有回答有关如何调查股东的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室里决定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者正在花费更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕零售行动进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在 “阿尔法”，但要实现这一目标可能需要一些紧张的数字运算。当然，并不是所有的留言板聊天都会导致价格持续上涨，如果没有大量的数据分析，零售订单流很难与机构流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在购买哪些股票和正在出售哪些股票的投资者来说，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的 20% 的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的 20% 的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他说：”他们认为这几乎就像一份保险，以限制他们的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于零售商来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动是由社区精神支撑的。其背后的力量既是情感上的，也是道德上的，也是经济上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是希望证明自己，并像利润一样惩罚保守派。他们互相学习市场，有时会放大或揭穿关于华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票运动与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“26 岁的科尔斯说：”华尔街让我们的经济陷入困境，但没有人因此惹上麻烦。“所以，我认为他们认为我们不仅可以赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格 (Claire Hirschberg) 是一名 28 岁的工会组织者，她在 1 月份从朋友那里听说 Robinhood 上购买了价值约 50 美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他是一名长期的资金经理。“她笑着说：”他很生气我买了游戏驿站，还不肯卖。“这让我想永远拿着它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像老华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，在你成为合伙人之前，你不会打菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你从不离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而且不是按顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万散户交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认财务损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对本集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不规范语言。你是 “猿类 ”或 “弱智 ”大军的一员。你坚持住，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>集体行动不仅仅是为了精神支持。交易策略取决于人们保持买入压力，迫使做空，或买入看涨期权，从而引发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔 (Keith Gill) 在二月份众议院金融服务委员会听证会上虚拟露面，成为 Reddit 散户交易员大军推高游戏驿站股价的代言人。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来给备忘录运动注入氧气。6 月中旬，AMC 的空头权益占该股流通量的 17%，低于 1 月份的 28%，但降幅不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格上涨，空头们也控制不住自己。多年来一直关注游戏驿站的韦德布什证券分析师迈克尔-帕切特（Michael Pachter）说，他们开始 “流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”。“他说：”让我感到震惊的是精神错乱的定义，就是一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头却不断出现。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思-吉尔（Keith Gill）和他的 Reddit raiders 一直在挤压他们，而且一直在起作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit 人群需要团结起来，但该社区有时会出现裂缝。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和 AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经崩溃。 Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 在 1 月底和 6 月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于 1 月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心 wallstreetbets——激发游戏驿站狂热的最初 Reddit 留言板——发展如此之快，以至于它已经失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。有些人搬到了其他留言板，如 r/superstonk，希望能重现老社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司 Hype Equity 的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔 (Travis Rehl) 表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣。现在，他看到了一种不断增长的趋势，即股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的聊天，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这让人怀疑什么是真正的讨论，什么是某人只想炒作的东西。wallstreetbets 的版主禁止在该平台上操纵市场，Rehl 表示，他们似乎正在努力遏制错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>“索斯尼克说：”如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让一只股票在短时间内上涨 10%、20%，甚至 50%，那么你就有巨大的动力去做这件事。</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>美国证券交易委员会正在关注留言板上的有趣交易。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler）和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则，目的是增加保护散户交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减缓交易速度或使交易成本更高，也可能激怒零售人群。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一能遏制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment 行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根 (Dan Egan) 认为，这种势头可能会在 9 月份耗尽。即使是 “猿猴 ”也有责任。“他说：”孩子们开始重返校园；家长们也可以自由地再次上班了。“那是下一次从房间里抽出氧气的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金引发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪和游戏驿站乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，那么只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注，这几乎肯定是一件好事。许多新零售商表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授亨德里克-贝森宾德（Hendrik Bessembinder）在2018年发表了一项开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票，亏损的可能性大于赚钱的可能性”。简而言之，挑选单只股票并持有集中投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是对新一波交易感到鼓舞。“贝森宾德说：”我欢迎零售交易的增加，欢迎股票市场成为一个广泛参与的地方。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","AMC":"AMC院线","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","BB":"黑莓","SCHW":"嘉信理财","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"BB":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"NEGG":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"SCHW":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"CARV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158250462,"gmtCreate":1625152227656,"gmtModify":1631890294470,"author":{"id":"3584863878578239","authorId":"3584863878578239","name":"Chatcha","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584863878578239","idStr":"3584863878578239"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please comment and like ","listText":"Please comment and like ","text":"Please comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158250462","repostId":"1199212665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199212665","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625146084,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199212665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 21:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘中值得购买的 3 只昂贵科技股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199212665","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Get ready to buy Snowflake and two other hot tech stocks if this frothy market collapses.","content":"<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于对债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓的担忧，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，守住了涨幅，甚至反弹。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于不想为合适的公司付出错误代价的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and <b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我正在列出一份昂贵的科技股购物清单，我会在下一次市场崩盘时急切地购买这些股票。让我们来看看其中的三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>特维利奥</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>人群罢工</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CRWD）</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> and <b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>雪花是 2020 年最热门的科技 IPO 之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b>和<b>销售力量网站</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入到第三方数据可视化应用程序中。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，这使得大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>2021 财年（截至今年 1 月），Snowflake 的客户数量增长了 73%，达到 4,139 家，其中包括 186 家财富 500 强公司。其收入飙升 124%，达到 5.92 亿美元，其净保留率（衡量其每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到 165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在 2022 年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长 110%，达到 2.289 亿美元，客户数量增长 67%，达到 4,532 家，净保留率达到 168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但雪花还没有盈利。ITSGAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大到2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻倍多</i>2022 年第一季度从 9360 万美元增至 2.032 亿美元。在非 GAAP 基础上，它也不盈利，这不包括基于股票的薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计 Snowflake 今年的收入将增长 88%，亏损幅度将收窄。然而，其股价仍为今年销售额的 65 倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长空间。但如果雪花在车祸中被切成两半，我会考虑开始一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 怀疑</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps <b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and <b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>乘客联系他们的司机，<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>在过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，Twilio 的收入增长了 55%，达到 17.6 亿美元。其净扩张率，与雪花的净保留率相当，达到了137%。2021 年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长 62%，达到 5.9 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按 GAAP 计算，Twilio 仍不盈利，但其 2020 年非 GAAP 净利润增长 62%，达到 3590 万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%，达到960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年的收入将增长 44%，但由于投资增加和 A2P（应用对个人）费用上涨，其非 GAAP 盈利将再次陷入亏损，现在运营商在应用程序访问短信网络时都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格接近今年销售额 30 倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持他们的服务，但随着组织的扩展，维护成本可能很高，而且难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过将其端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务提供来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike 的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性潜力。2021财年（截至今年1月），其收入增长82%，达到8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%，达到9,896家，净保留率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，保留率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike 在 2021 年也在非 GAAP 基础上实现盈利，净利润为 6260 万美元。2022 年第一季度，其非 GAAP 净利润同比增长五倍多，达到 2330 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但 CrowdStrike 的预期市盈率仍然约为 350 倍，是今年销售额的 40 多倍。因此，这是另一只除非市场崩盘，否则我不会购买的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘中值得购买的 3 只昂贵科技股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘中值得购买的 3 只昂贵科技股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 21:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于对债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓的担忧，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，守住了涨幅，甚至反弹。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于不想为合适的公司付出错误代价的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and <b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我正在列出一份昂贵的科技股购物清单，我会在下一次市场崩盘时急切地购买这些股票。让我们来看看其中的三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>特维利奥</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>人群罢工</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CRWD）</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> and <b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>雪花是 2020 年最热门的科技 IPO 之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b>和<b>销售力量网站</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入到第三方数据可视化应用程序中。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，这使得大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>2021 财年（截至今年 1 月），Snowflake 的客户数量增长了 73%，达到 4,139 家，其中包括 186 家财富 500 强公司。其收入飙升 124%，达到 5.92 亿美元，其净保留率（衡量其每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到 165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在 2022 年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长 110%，达到 2.289 亿美元，客户数量增长 67%，达到 4,532 家，净保留率达到 168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但雪花还没有盈利。ITSGAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大到2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻倍多</i>2022 年第一季度从 9360 万美元增至 2.032 亿美元。在非 GAAP 基础上，它也不盈利，这不包括基于股票的薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计 Snowflake 今年的收入将增长 88%，亏损幅度将收窄。然而，其股价仍为今年销售额的 65 倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长空间。但如果雪花在车祸中被切成两半，我会考虑开始一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 怀疑</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps <b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and <b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>乘客联系他们的司机，<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>在过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，Twilio 的收入增长了 55%，达到 17.6 亿美元。其净扩张率，与雪花的净保留率相当，达到了137%。2021 年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长 62%，达到 5.9 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按 GAAP 计算，Twilio 仍不盈利，但其 2020 年非 GAAP 净利润增长 62%，达到 3590 万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%，达到960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年的收入将增长 44%，但由于投资增加和 A2P（应用对个人）费用上涨，其非 GAAP 盈利将再次陷入亏损，现在运营商在应用程序访问短信网络时都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格接近今年销售额 30 倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持他们的服务，但随着组织的扩展，维护成本可能很高，而且难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过将其端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务提供来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike 的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性潜力。2021财年（截至今年1月），其收入增长82%，达到8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%，达到9,896家，净保留率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，保留率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike 在 2021 年也在非 GAAP 基础上实现盈利，净利润为 6260 万美元。2022 年第一季度，其非 GAAP 净利润同比增长五倍多，达到 2330 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但 CrowdStrike 的预期市盈率仍然约为 350 倍，是今年销售额的 40 多倍。因此，这是另一只除非市场崩盘，否则我不会购买的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWLO":"Twilio Inc","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199212665","content_text":"Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.\nThat sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.\nThat's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW),Twilio(NYSE:TWLO), and CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD).\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Snowflake\nSnowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from Berkshire Hathaway and salesforce.com.\nSnowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.\nSnowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.\nThat growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.\nBut Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, andmore than doubledfrom $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.\nAnalysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.\n2. Twilio\nTwilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps Lyft's passengers contact their drivers, and Airbnb's guests reach their hosts.\nIn the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.\nTwilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.\nTwilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.\nAnalysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.\nThat near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.\n3. CrowdStrike\nCrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.\nCrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.\nIn the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.\nCrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.\nThose numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWLO":0.9,"CRWD":0.9,"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126397988,"gmtCreate":1624543913044,"gmtModify":1631890294476,"author":{"id":"3584863878578239","authorId":"3584863878578239","name":"Chatcha","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584863878578239","idStr":"3584863878578239"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please comment and like","listText":"Please comment and like","text":"Please comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126397988","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p> <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b> One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b> <b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b> One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b> <b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161701793,"gmtCreate":1623939601412,"gmtModify":1631890294475,"author":{"id":"3584863878578239","authorId":"3584863878578239","name":"Chatcha","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584863878578239","idStr":"3584863878578239"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please comment and like","listText":"Please comment and like","text":"Please comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161701793","repostId":"2144411077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161709795,"gmtCreate":1623939549617,"gmtModify":1631890294478,"author":{"id":"3584863878578239","authorId":"3584863878578239","name":"Chatcha","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584863878578239","idStr":"3584863878578239"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please comment and like","listText":"Please comment and like","text":"Please comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161709795","repostId":"2144741992","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182545088,"gmtCreate":1623592771144,"gmtModify":1631890294482,"author":{"id":"3584863878578239","authorId":"3584863878578239","name":"Chatcha","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584863878578239","idStr":"3584863878578239"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please comment and like","listText":"Please comment and like","text":"Please comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182545088","repostId":"2143788705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}