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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-15
  [财迷] [财迷]
  Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?
  New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it co
  Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-14
  [财迷] [财迷]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,267 评论
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-10
  [微笑] [微笑]
  3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession
  Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending dec
  3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-07
  [笑哭] [笑哭]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-06
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-04
  [流泪] [流泪]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-02
  好高
  美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？
  “美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔
  美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？
  1,488 1
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-01
  真行
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,419 1
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-05-29
  Test
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Should they?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145996523","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it co","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.</p>\n<p>The US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.</p>\n<p>Food prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).</p>\n<p>And the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave &amp; Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.</p>\n<p>Wages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.</p>\n<p>Labor shortages aren't helping.</p>\n<p>The CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.</p>\n<p>Yet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.</p>\n<p>And the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>\"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.</p>\n<p>The problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.</p>\n<p>\"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"</p>\n<p>If the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.</p>\n<p>Oh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.</p>\n<p>For that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.</p>\n<p>\"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"</p>\n<p>Even if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.</p>\n<p>\"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.</p>\n<p>\"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.</p>\n<p><b>What's getting more expensive</b></p>\n<p>Food and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.</p>\n<p>Lumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.</p>\n<p>Used cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.</p>\n<p>People are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.</p>\n<p><b>Up next</b></p>\n<p><b>Tuesday: </b>US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H &amp; R Block (HRB)</p>\n<p><b>Wednesday: </b>Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)</p>\n<p><b>Thursday: </b>US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 17:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html><strong>cnn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.\nThe US government reported last week that consumer prices...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145996523","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.\nThe US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.\nFood prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).\nAnd the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave & Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.\nWages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.\nLabor shortages aren't helping.\nThe CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.\nYet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.\nAnd the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.\n\"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.\nThe problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.\n\"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"\nIf the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.\nOh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.\nFor that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.\n\"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"\nEven if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.\n\"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.\n\"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.\nWhat's getting more expensive\nFood and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.\nLumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.\nUsed cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.\nPeople are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.\nUp next\nTuesday: US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H & R Block (HRB)\nWednesday: Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)\nThursday: US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185983922,"gmtCreate":1623630502366,"gmtModify":1634031039806,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185983922","repostId":"2143785622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183041520,"gmtCreate":1623296607860,"gmtModify":1634034840060,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183041520","repostId":"1143747111","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143747111","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623293378,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143747111?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 10:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143747111","media":"fool","summary":"Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending dec","content":"<p>Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending decreases, markets get volatile, and investors get nervous as they see a portion of their portfolios apparently begin to evaporate.</p>\n<p>Some investors panic and make the mistake of selling their stocks during a recession and lock in losses. But others know that recessions are a time to<i>buy</i>stock as they offer access to lower stock prices that can lay the foundation for tremendous returns once the economy recovers. The key to executing that last action successfully is to focus on buying stock in strong companies that can survive periods of soft demand and high unemployment.</p>\n<p>No one knows when a recession will hit, but we do know there have been 18 recessions over the last century, so it's likely to happen again. The wise investor will do what it takes to be prepared for this eventuality.</p>\n<p>Here are three relatively safe tech stocks that represent strong companies and I would buy them during the next recession.</p>\n<p>1. Microsoft</p>\n<p><b>Microsoft</b>'s(NASDAQ:MSFT)software is widely used by both consumers and businesses. There are more than 1 billion active devices that run on Windows 10, and the company reported that Office 365 usage was higher than ever last year. Microsoft is also a leader in helping organizations shift to digital technologies, whereMicrosoft Azureis emerging as a strong second-place competitor to<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)in the cloud services market.</p>\n<p>Even with Microsoft's established brand and customer base, the company is not immune to dips in demand caused by recessions. For example, spending on technology could decline during a weak economy, pressuring Microsoft's revenue growth. But it's worth noting that spending on cloud services and infrastructure continued to increase during the pandemic as Microsoft benefited from the remote work trend, and CEO Satya Nadella believes the growing demand for digital services is just getting started.</p>\n<p>\"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down. They're accelerating, and it's just the beginning,\" Nadella stated in the fiscal Q3 2021 earnings report.</p>\n<p>Microsoft estimates that 50 billion new devices will come online by 2030, and that could translate to tremendous growth in revenue for Azure -- not to mention demand for Microsoft's popular software tools like Word and Excel, which the company bundles as a subscription service with Microsoft 365.</p>\n<p>Microsoft is a financial fortress. It ended the most recent quarter with a net cash position of $73 billion, and it generated $54 billion infree cash flowover the last four quarters.&nbsp;With that much cash sitting on the balance sheet and more coming in every year, Microsoft would likely be able to continue increasing its dividend payout even during challenging business conditions. The stock currently pays adividend yieldof 0.87%, representing a cash payout ratio of 30% relative to free cash flow.</p>\n<p>The secular demand trend for digital enterprise software services should keep Microsoft growing over the long term, and its rock-solid financial position should provide a cushion to the stock price in the event of anothermarket correction.</p>\n<p>2. Amazon</p>\n<p>Amazon provides essential services through its grocery businesses (Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods). It's also the leader in cloud services with its Amazon Web Services business. But serving the consumer is still its bread and butter. The annualPrime Day(usually held in the summer months) has become just as big as Black Friday, and the event provides Amazon an opportunity to reach new customers with its Prime membership program.</p>\n<p>Amazon generated $419 billion in revenue over the last year, and it continues to grow very fast for a large business. Revenue has doubled over the last three years, with growth accelerating during the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Still, not all recessions may turn out as well for the e-commerce giant. Amazon sells a lot of consumer electronics and other nonessential items that people may not purchase during a prolonged recession.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, many customers would likely stick with their Prime memberships to enjoy movies, music, and free grocery delivery. Amazon now has more than 200 million loyal patrons through Prime, and the company is seeing Prime engagement continue to rise, providing a stickier ecosystem of services for consumers.</p>\n<p>Like Microsoft, Amazon generates a substantial amount of free cash flow to continue investing in the future no matter what the economy is doing. Over the last four quarters, Amazon generated $26.4 billion in free cash flow.&nbsp;Most of its operating profit comes from cloud services, where Amazon Web Services made up 11.6% of total revenue on a trailing-12-month basis.</p>\n<p>While Amazon doesn't pay a dividend, that's sort of a good thing at this juncture, because it means management is still seeing tremendous opportunities to invest in building more fulfillment warehouses and its own transportation fleet to meet growing demand. This is a top growth stock to consider buying when the next market correction strikes.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc76a43a51b8c48de3337ad1dea22962\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AAPLDATA BY YCHARTS</span></p>\n<p>3. Apple</p>\n<p><b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)is one of the most iconic consumer brands in the world. Sure, sales of its pricey aluminum-clad devices would likely suffer if people didn't have money to spend, but the company also has a growing revenue stream from subscription services, and it generates plenty of cash to continue paying a regular dividend to shareholders.</p>\n<p>While iPhone revenue dropped 3.3% in fiscal 2020 (which ended in September), Apple saw sales of its Macs, iPads, and wearables grow at healthy rates during the pandemic. And since the iPhone 12 launched in the fall, Apple's revenue growth has accelerated to 53% year over year in the quarter that ended in March.</p>\n<p>Most importantly, Apple's installed base of active devices continues to hit new records. The new Macs and iPad Pros featuringApple's new M1 chip have rejuvenated salesof these products&nbsp;-- a great sign of Apple's brand strength in the marketplace.</p>\n<p>The stock currently pays a dividend yield of 0.67%, with a current cash payout ratio of 15.7% of trailing free cash flow. While shares are up 50% over the last year, the forwardprice-to-earnings ratiois roughly in line with that of the broader market at 24 times expected earnings. At this valuation level, there might be more room for upside in the near term, especially if the iPhone upgrade cycle remains stronger than investors expect.</p>\n<p>During the earnings call in late April, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that 5G penetration is \"still low at this point,\" with a lot of upgrades still in front of the company.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e5874f0d32193fcda101a46ff8ad430\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AAPL PE RATIO (FORWARD)DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p>\n<p>In the event of another recession, investors can feel confident that Apple's business won't be starving for funds to keep cranking out new products -- and most importantly, keeping its employees happily on the payroll.</p>\n<p>Apple ended the fiscal second quarter with net cash of $87 billion on the books. While management is working toward a cash-neutral position on its balance sheet,&nbsp;Apple continues to gush more every year, with trailing free cash flow topping $90 billion.</p>\n<p>The key takeaway</p>\n<p>Shares ofleading tech stocksthat generate substantial amounts of free cash flow will be relatively safe bets during a recession. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple possess these traits in spades. These companies are dominant sector leaders that should reward investors for years to come.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 10:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/3-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-during-a-recession/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending decreases, markets get volatile, and investors get nervous as they see a portion of their portfolios ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/3-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-during-a-recession/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/3-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-during-a-recession/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143747111","content_text":"Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending decreases, markets get volatile, and investors get nervous as they see a portion of their portfolios apparently begin to evaporate.\nSome investors panic and make the mistake of selling their stocks during a recession and lock in losses. But others know that recessions are a time tobuystock as they offer access to lower stock prices that can lay the foundation for tremendous returns once the economy recovers. The key to executing that last action successfully is to focus on buying stock in strong companies that can survive periods of soft demand and high unemployment.\nNo one knows when a recession will hit, but we do know there have been 18 recessions over the last century, so it's likely to happen again. The wise investor will do what it takes to be prepared for this eventuality.\nHere are three relatively safe tech stocks that represent strong companies and I would buy them during the next recession.\n1. Microsoft\nMicrosoft's(NASDAQ:MSFT)software is widely used by both consumers and businesses. There are more than 1 billion active devices that run on Windows 10, and the company reported that Office 365 usage was higher than ever last year. Microsoft is also a leader in helping organizations shift to digital technologies, whereMicrosoft Azureis emerging as a strong second-place competitor toAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)in the cloud services market.\nEven with Microsoft's established brand and customer base, the company is not immune to dips in demand caused by recessions. For example, spending on technology could decline during a weak economy, pressuring Microsoft's revenue growth. But it's worth noting that spending on cloud services and infrastructure continued to increase during the pandemic as Microsoft benefited from the remote work trend, and CEO Satya Nadella believes the growing demand for digital services is just getting started.\n\"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down. They're accelerating, and it's just the beginning,\" Nadella stated in the fiscal Q3 2021 earnings report.\nMicrosoft estimates that 50 billion new devices will come online by 2030, and that could translate to tremendous growth in revenue for Azure -- not to mention demand for Microsoft's popular software tools like Word and Excel, which the company bundles as a subscription service with Microsoft 365.\nMicrosoft is a financial fortress. It ended the most recent quarter with a net cash position of $73 billion, and it generated $54 billion infree cash flowover the last four quarters. With that much cash sitting on the balance sheet and more coming in every year, Microsoft would likely be able to continue increasing its dividend payout even during challenging business conditions. The stock currently pays adividend yieldof 0.87%, representing a cash payout ratio of 30% relative to free cash flow.\nThe secular demand trend for digital enterprise software services should keep Microsoft growing over the long term, and its rock-solid financial position should provide a cushion to the stock price in the event of anothermarket correction.\n2. Amazon\nAmazon provides essential services through its grocery businesses (Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods). It's also the leader in cloud services with its Amazon Web Services business. But serving the consumer is still its bread and butter. The annualPrime Day(usually held in the summer months) has become just as big as Black Friday, and the event provides Amazon an opportunity to reach new customers with its Prime membership program.\nAmazon generated $419 billion in revenue over the last year, and it continues to grow very fast for a large business. Revenue has doubled over the last three years, with growth accelerating during the pandemic.\nStill, not all recessions may turn out as well for the e-commerce giant. Amazon sells a lot of consumer electronics and other nonessential items that people may not purchase during a prolonged recession.\nOn the other hand, many customers would likely stick with their Prime memberships to enjoy movies, music, and free grocery delivery. Amazon now has more than 200 million loyal patrons through Prime, and the company is seeing Prime engagement continue to rise, providing a stickier ecosystem of services for consumers.\nLike Microsoft, Amazon generates a substantial amount of free cash flow to continue investing in the future no matter what the economy is doing. Over the last four quarters, Amazon generated $26.4 billion in free cash flow. Most of its operating profit comes from cloud services, where Amazon Web Services made up 11.6% of total revenue on a trailing-12-month basis.\nWhile Amazon doesn't pay a dividend, that's sort of a good thing at this juncture, because it means management is still seeing tremendous opportunities to invest in building more fulfillment warehouses and its own transportation fleet to meet growing demand. This is a top growth stock to consider buying when the next market correction strikes.\nAAPLDATA BY YCHARTS\n3. Apple\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL)is one of the most iconic consumer brands in the world. Sure, sales of its pricey aluminum-clad devices would likely suffer if people didn't have money to spend, but the company also has a growing revenue stream from subscription services, and it generates plenty of cash to continue paying a regular dividend to shareholders.\nWhile iPhone revenue dropped 3.3% in fiscal 2020 (which ended in September), Apple saw sales of its Macs, iPads, and wearables grow at healthy rates during the pandemic. And since the iPhone 12 launched in the fall, Apple's revenue growth has accelerated to 53% year over year in the quarter that ended in March.\nMost importantly, Apple's installed base of active devices continues to hit new records. The new Macs and iPad Pros featuringApple's new M1 chip have rejuvenated salesof these products -- a great sign of Apple's brand strength in the marketplace.\nThe stock currently pays a dividend yield of 0.67%, with a current cash payout ratio of 15.7% of trailing free cash flow. While shares are up 50% over the last year, the forwardprice-to-earnings ratiois roughly in line with that of the broader market at 24 times expected earnings. At this valuation level, there might be more room for upside in the near term, especially if the iPhone upgrade cycle remains stronger than investors expect.\nDuring the earnings call in late April, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that 5G penetration is \"still low at this point,\" with a lot of upgrades still in front of the company.\nAAPL PE RATIO (FORWARD)DATA BY YCHARTS\nIn the event of another recession, investors can feel confident that Apple's business won't be starving for funds to keep cranking out new products -- and most importantly, keeping its employees happily on the payroll.\nApple ended the fiscal second quarter with net cash of $87 billion on the books. While management is working toward a cash-neutral position on its balance sheet, Apple continues to gush more every year, with trailing free cash flow topping $90 billion.\nThe key takeaway\nShares ofleading tech stocksthat generate substantial amounts of free cash flow will be relatively safe bets during a recession. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple possess these traits in spades. These companies are dominant sector leaders that should reward investors for years to come.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114145366,"gmtCreate":1623060711355,"gmtModify":1634037390554,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114145366","repostId":"1130425727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115124409,"gmtCreate":1622961301001,"gmtModify":1634096541774,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115124409","repostId":"1156802172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116228490,"gmtCreate":1622805795010,"gmtModify":1634097850384,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪] [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116228490","repostId":"1119332623","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":113452586,"gmtCreate":1622636096145,"gmtModify":1634099731006,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好高","listText":"好高","text":"好高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113452586","repostId":"2140416949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140416949","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622630403,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140416949?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 18:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140416949","media":"智通财经网","summary":"“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔","content":"<p>“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0991ce9046f207d4130716b72c2b2b02\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。</p>\n<p>事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0N4T.UK\">北欧联合银行</a>上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“震惊”的消息，因为当前汽车和货车使用量在以50%的年增长率增长，住房租金年增长率存在潜在的上涨空间。</p>\n<p>对于那些还没有了解二手车市场情况的人，这里有一张Mannheim二手车指数的图表可供参考：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9760ce507bb6caf12156a19fc79326ca\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"912\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>据Apartment List的数据显示，住房租金在经历了一段时间的下滑后，这个CPI和PCE篮子中的关键组成部分突然暴涨。美国全国租金中值刚刚创下有记录以来的最高涨幅。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d5ea7fbded6605c2bf42d32832ec86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张图表促使北欧<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASBC\">联合银行</a>作出一个预测：“不排除美国5月核心CPI通胀达到4%”，<b>若这一幕出现，恐将导致市场对美联储的“暂时性通胀”理论失去信任，甚至连民主党政客也要求美联储开始缩减购债规模。 </b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880ca75b3087a5e56e0a38dc72a8cc50\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然，有可能情况没那么糟糕，甚至会转向好的一面，一些人已经开始关注下一个阶段的价格下跌，例如近日大宗商品价格有下行趋势。分析师指出需求增长存在放缓的初步迹象，供给也将开始增加，价格可能最终会温和上涨，随之而来的是良性通胀。</p>\n<p>以木材和住房供给为例：此前木材新订单高于产量、库存下降，一度引发价格飙升；但是现在，木材产量已经追上了订单，木材库存趋于稳定。许多经济学家，其中包括美联储，预计这种模式将在经济的其他领域重演。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1af1f2f95edcf3700e6feda7edddd67b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 18:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。\n事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，北欧联合银行上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d404e53536bd5bd25337ed01def7224","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2140416949","content_text":"“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。\n事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，北欧联合银行上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“震惊”的消息，因为当前汽车和货车使用量在以50%的年增长率增长，住房租金年增长率存在潜在的上涨空间。\n对于那些还没有了解二手车市场情况的人，这里有一张Mannheim二手车指数的图表可供参考：\n\n据Apartment List的数据显示，住房租金在经历了一段时间的下滑后，这个CPI和PCE篮子中的关键组成部分突然暴涨。美国全国租金中值刚刚创下有记录以来的最高涨幅。\n\n这张图表促使北欧联合银行作出一个预测：“不排除美国5月核心CPI通胀达到4%”，若这一幕出现，恐将导致市场对美联储的“暂时性通胀”理论失去信任，甚至连民主党政客也要求美联储开始缩减购债规模。 \n\n当然，有可能情况没那么糟糕，甚至会转向好的一面，一些人已经开始关注下一个阶段的价格下跌，例如近日大宗商品价格有下行趋势。分析师指出需求增长存在放缓的初步迹象，供给也将开始增加，价格可能最终会温和上涨，随之而来的是良性通胀。\n以木材和住房供给为例：此前木材新订单高于产量、库存下降，一度引发价格飙升；但是现在，木材产量已经追上了订单，木材库存趋于稳定。许多经济学家，其中包括美联储，预计这种模式将在经济的其他领域重演。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":119612315,"gmtCreate":1622541263137,"gmtModify":1634100672602,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真行","listText":"真行","text":"真行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119612315","repostId":"1109109753","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":134264986,"gmtCreate":1622243659745,"gmtModify":1634182592556,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Test","listText":"Test","text":"Test","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134264986","repostId":"1155283133","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}