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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-15
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  Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?
  New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it co
  Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-14
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-10
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-07
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-06
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-04
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-02
  好高
  美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？
  “美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔
  美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-06-01
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- d63a8e4d63a8e4
  ·2021-05-29
  Test
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So did Campbell Soup (CPB).</p>\n<p>And the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave &amp; Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.</p>\n<p>Wages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. 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Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>\"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.</p>\n<p>The problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.</p>\n<p>\"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"</p>\n<p>If the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.</p>\n<p>Oh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.</p>\n<p>For that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.</p>\n<p>\"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"</p>\n<p>Even if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.</p>\n<p>\"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.</p>\n<p>\"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.</p>\n<p><b>What's getting more expensive</b></p>\n<p>Food and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.</p>\n<p>Lumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.</p>\n<p>Used cars are a lot more expensive too. 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Should they?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 17:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html><strong>cnn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.\nThe US government reported last week that consumer prices...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145996523","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.\nThe US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.\nFood prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).\nAnd the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave & Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.\nWages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.\nLabor shortages aren't helping.\nThe CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.\nYet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.\nAnd the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.\n\"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.\nThe problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.\n\"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"\nIf the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.\nOh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.\nFor that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.\n\"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"\nEven if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.\n\"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.\n\"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.\nWhat's getting more expensive\nFood and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.\nLumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.\nUsed cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.\nPeople are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.\nUp next\nTuesday: US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H & R Block (HRB)\nWednesday: Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)\nThursday: US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe 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[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116228490","repostId":"1119332623","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":113452586,"gmtCreate":1622636096145,"gmtModify":1634099731006,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好高","listText":"好高","text":"好高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113452586","repostId":"2140416949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140416949","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622630403,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140416949?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 18:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140416949","media":"智通财经网","summary":"“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔","content":"<p>“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0991ce9046f207d4130716b72c2b2b02\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。</p>\n<p>事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0N4T.UK\">北欧联合银行</a>上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“震惊”的消息，因为当前汽车和货车使用量在以50%的年增长率增长，住房租金年增长率存在潜在的上涨空间。</p>\n<p>对于那些还没有了解二手车市场情况的人，这里有一张Mannheim二手车指数的图表可供参考：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9760ce507bb6caf12156a19fc79326ca\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"912\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>据Apartment List的数据显示，住房租金在经历了一段时间的下滑后，这个CPI和PCE篮子中的关键组成部分突然暴涨。美国全国租金中值刚刚创下有记录以来的最高涨幅。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d5ea7fbded6605c2bf42d32832ec86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张图表促使北欧<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASBC\">联合银行</a>作出一个预测：“不排除美国5月核心CPI通胀达到4%”，<b>若这一幕出现，恐将导致市场对美联储的“暂时性通胀”理论失去信任，甚至连民主党政客也要求美联储开始缩减购债规模。 </b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880ca75b3087a5e56e0a38dc72a8cc50\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然，有可能情况没那么糟糕，甚至会转向好的一面，一些人已经开始关注下一个阶段的价格下跌，例如近日大宗商品价格有下行趋势。分析师指出需求增长存在放缓的初步迹象，供给也将开始增加，价格可能最终会温和上涨，随之而来的是良性通胀。</p>\n<p>以木材和住房供给为例：此前木材新订单高于产量、库存下降，一度引发价格飙升；但是现在，木材产量已经追上了订单，木材库存趋于稳定。许多经济学家，其中包括美联储，预计这种模式将在经济的其他领域重演。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1af1f2f95edcf3700e6feda7edddd67b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 18:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。\n事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，北欧联合银行上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d404e53536bd5bd25337ed01def7224","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2140416949","content_text":"“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。\n事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，北欧联合银行上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“震惊”的消息，因为当前汽车和货车使用量在以50%的年增长率增长，住房租金年增长率存在潜在的上涨空间。\n对于那些还没有了解二手车市场情况的人，这里有一张Mannheim二手车指数的图表可供参考：\n\n据Apartment List的数据显示，住房租金在经历了一段时间的下滑后，这个CPI和PCE篮子中的关键组成部分突然暴涨。美国全国租金中值刚刚创下有记录以来的最高涨幅。\n\n这张图表促使北欧联合银行作出一个预测：“不排除美国5月核心CPI通胀达到4%”，若这一幕出现，恐将导致市场对美联储的“暂时性通胀”理论失去信任，甚至连民主党政客也要求美联储开始缩减购债规模。 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