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我要实现财富自由
我要实现财富自由
·
06-04 12:46
港股科技：基本面已现拐点，全面反转拐点尚未确认，处在底部修复区间（结构性拐点落地、整体拐点待流动性验证） 数据：恒生科技当前点位约4984点，PE 20.1倍、处在近5年9.3%历史分位，大幅折价纳指35%+，估值深度低位 一、已经落地的三大确定性拐点（基本面+政策） 1. 盈利拐点（最实锤） 互联网平台告别恶性补贴内卷，美团、腾讯、阿里2025Q4-2026Q1财报普遍超预期、经营性利润持续抬升；大厂AI降本增效落地，广告、云业务回暖，板块整体ROE自2022年底部持续修复。 硬科技（中芯、比亚迪、半导体设备）受益国产替代+AI算力需求，营收增速领先，板块内部分化：硬科技拐点先兑现，互联网平台缓步修复 。 2. 政策拐点（悲观预期出清） 平台经济监管常态化、不再强反垄断；十五五明确AI、数字经济、先进制造为战略主线，AI专项信贷落地；港股市场改革（T+1研讨、ETF通扩容）持续推进，政策底明确。 3. 估值拐点（下行空间封死） 恒科PE、PB全部处在历史10%分位以内，横向对比纳指、A股科技大幅折价，悲观定价充分消化，深度下跌拐点已经结束，向下空间有限 。 二、迟迟没落地的整体行情拐点：卡在美元流动性 港股是离岸外资主导市场，全面牛市拐点=美联储降息落地+外资持续回流+AI商业化大规模兑现三大条件共振 ： 1. 美元利率：当前美联储全年仅预期降息1次，美元偏强、外资阶段性观望，是压制指数最大变量；只要降息落地，全球资金再配置港股科技的逻辑打开 。 2. 资金现状：南向资金持续净流入（2026年内超2700亿港元）、科技ETF持续申购，但长线外资仅小幅回流、短线美元资金反复进出，缺少增量大资
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