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AaronHy
斯坦福商学院本硕,美股期权十年交易者,超级披露实盘赛3月份冠军
IP属地:上海
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-18
粉丝们都赚钱了么 [害羞] 美光 闪迪 的多单 谷歌的空单 今晚差不多就要平多了 部份留到明天平 周五收盘前做坚定的空
$美光科技(MU)$
$谷歌(GOOG)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
粉丝有问必答。静待今晚cpi公布。
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-17
博通已到抄底时机 美光财报前可以买波涨 闪迪也能买涨
$博通(AVGO)$
$美光科技(MU)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-13
说一下下周思路 周一择机平空看多,周三开始陆续建仓位做空 主要做谷歌空单 和纳指100空单 下周纳指估计是要失守23000点了 周一大a摩尔估计是要爆炸了 半导体死一片[晕]
$谷歌(GOOG)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
$中芯国际(00981)$
$博通(AVGO)$
点点关注 欢迎交流 有问必回 股票没亏过 期货没赚过 问白银黄金的真给不了什么好的意见~
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
11-28
百万美金!携手同行 互相成就!
在感恩节收到老虎证卷的里程碑礼物,感谢老虎证劵,感谢粉丝! 希望明年粉丝们也能够收获里程碑 首先预告一下,12月3号我会同另外一位嘉宾在老虎直播上和大家交流收获和想法。我主要会交流一些大家比较关心半导体的看法,如tpu和gpu未来的发展,未来对机会的一些看法
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
$英特尔(INTC)$
$高通(QCOM)$
,还有苹果、闪迪、figma、sigma(锂业)、直觉外科(达芬奇手术机器人)等也可以一同交流看法。 在这里先简单聊聊最近的半导体行情,是去追asic还是gpu,我认为英伟达的地位还是无法撼动的,现在的抛售其实不用担心,首先英伟达的业绩确定性已经非常强了,burry做空英伟达只是选在了一个好时间,五万亿这个市值数字和股价200的突破都是一个很好的做空回调的机会。没有一个股票会无止境的涨下去,英伟达的成长性,今年半导体疯涨带来的未来预期收益和风险已经不成比例了。 未来我可能会把主要的仓位布局在一些ai软件公司还有特斯拉上,关注一些类似直觉外科类的公司。Robotaxi和Optimus我也很看好。 今天如果纳指能涨2.15个点,下个月继续回调的可能性会大幅度降低。如果没有,12月大概率还是会回调。 12月美联储降息,
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百万美金!携手同行 互相成就!
AaronHy
AaronHy
·
02-27
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
下月必到220立帖为证[笑哭]
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-22 17:27
说一下现在的看法 周五回吐了点利润 周一谷歌和纳指的空单 在坚持一下 现在看多看空都有点不确定 看这两天的走盘 今年圣诞行情其实不太看好 保住收益小仓位做做[回头]
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-19
Replying to
@effortless
:互相学习[比心]//
@effortless
:一直很佩服的大神♥️希望能多多学习
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-19
Replying to
@Madagascar P
:哈哈 2月底 那时候有基本面呀//
@Madagascar P
:敢全仓做空特斯拉,是个狠人
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-19
Replying to
@人生舵手__小琳
:[比心]//
@人生舵手__小琳
:打call[财迷][财迷]
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-19
Replying to
@vision
:[比心]谢谢美女//
@vision
:给 Aaron 打call
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-19
Replying to
@Yangsirisme
:buy put也是买方//
@Yangsirisme
:做空看跌特斯拉期权那是sell put是卖方吧?买入看涨期权才是买方这样吧
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-19
现在所有科技股都在压力位边
$英伟达(NVDA)$
170
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
200
$高通(QCOM)$
320
$苹果(AAPL)$
270
$英特尔(INTC)$
36,大家都在悬崖边,我认为还有10个点左右的回调空间,美股才在健康状态。2025决战就在这几天。
就在今天!史上最大规模期权到期,美股将迎来“疯狂一日”?
本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”,期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出,约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩,另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。
就在今天!史上最大规模期权到期,美股将迎来“疯狂一日”?
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AaronHy
AaronHy
·
12-16
最近节奏很好[爱你]
百万美金之路第十期|“日内就是止损”——@Aaron_Hy 的期权哲学与反人性的套利逻辑
@小虎访谈:
在2025年,有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列,走近已经实现年度百万美金收益的投资者,和正向着百万美金目标奔跑、年度收益超过 10 万美金 的用户,听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长对老虎来说,投资不只是盈亏的数字,而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事,激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标,让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想,变成看得见、够得着的里程碑。在港美股市场里,有人凭直觉交易,有人靠情绪冲浪,而 @AaronHy则属于那种让同行都会肃然起敬的类型——白天创业、晚上盯盘,用扎实调研与超强执行力在高波动的期权与科技板块中一次次穿越市场噪音。他不是投机者,而是把“短线快节奏”做到了极致专业化;也不是典型价值派,却每一次入场都藏着他系统性的推演与数据支持。这一次,他把自己的实战方法、最亮眼的战绩,以及那些真正改变他投资思维的瞬间,都坦诚分享出来。点击查看本期投阅笔记的完整内容。创业者的另一面:投资强化了他的抗压与纪律感Aaron_Hy 创业多年,他说创业和投资不是同一件事,但创业让他变得更加谨慎,也更能扛住压力。他真正系统进入市场,是在 2017 年赚到第一桶金之后。此后,他深度参与港美股和期权市场,几乎尝试过所有流动性高的品种,如今依然偏爱美股与期权的高效率。风格:高执行力短线选手,但心里始终有长期逻辑描述自己的
百万美金之路第十期|“日内就是止损”——@Aaron_Hy 的期权哲学与反人性的套利逻辑
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不做期货\n不授课 不卖课 只在老虎社区发一些交易看法 有问必答\n欢迎关注","starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":512119374483864,"gmtCreate":1766056178795,"gmtModify":1766057401823,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"粉丝们都赚钱了么 [害羞] 美光 闪迪 的多单 谷歌的空单 今晚差不多就要平多了 部份留到明天平 周五收盘前做坚定的空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 粉丝有问必答。静待今晚cpi公布。","listText":"粉丝们都赚钱了么 [害羞] 美光 闪迪 的多单 谷歌的空单 今晚差不多就要平多了 部份留到明天平 周五收盘前做坚定的空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a><v-v 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[喷血]末日期权要人命 [喷血]","text":"跟随你坚定的做空美光看法,一周盈利一晚上被美光吃干净了 [喷血]末日期权要人命 [喷血]","html":"跟随你坚定的做空美光看法,一周盈利一晚上被美光吃干净了 [喷血]末日期权要人命 [喷血]"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511817925809048,"gmtCreate":1765982587723,"gmtModify":1765985401952,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"博通已到抄底时机 美光财报前可以买波涨 闪迪也能买涨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> ","listText":"博通已到抄底时机 美光财报前可以买波涨 闪迪也能买涨<a 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真的牛,帮助我工作,我每天都想夸一遍,为啥最近看跌呢","html":"谷歌挺看好的,gemini 真的牛,帮助我工作,我每天都想夸一遍,为啥最近看跌呢"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":510202456421032,"gmtCreate":1765574006638,"gmtModify":1765777587761,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说一下下周思路 周一择机平空看多,周三开始陆续建仓位做空 主要做谷歌空单 和纳指100空单 下周纳指估计是要失守23000点了 周一大a摩尔估计是要爆炸了 半导体死一片[晕] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$ </a><v-v 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问白银黄金的真给不了什么好的意见~","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425609f420154de32e71f9fc9d16dc72","width":"5712","height":"4284"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2eaa078e0dd46fb2ac6bfb2cff55822","width":"5712","height":"4284"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b661401d845ca85ab2f2e8f0a1babfad","width":"5712","height":"4284"}],"top":2,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":56,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/510202456421032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560559550295680","authorId":"3560559550295680","name":"虹口老朱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/203b9ac92e98e48cd6173f2e0611993f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560559550295680","idStr":"3560559550295680"},"content":"请问老师,下周怎么看博通,谷歌,美光,还会继续跌吗?礼拜五误判了提前半山腰加了仓,损失很大,不知道是否应该耐心持有下周反弹。同时对美光财报也害怕了,财报优于预期也大涨,心里没底。谢谢。","text":"请问老师,下周怎么看博通,谷歌,美光,还会继续跌吗?礼拜五误判了提前半山腰加了仓,损失很大,不知道是否应该耐心持有下周反弹。同时对美光财报也害怕了,财报优于预期也大涨,心里没底。谢谢。","html":"请问老师,下周怎么看博通,谷歌,美光,还会继续跌吗?礼拜五误判了提前半山腰加了仓,损失很大,不知道是否应该耐心持有下周反弹。同时对美光财报也害怕了,财报优于预期也大涨,心里没底。谢谢。"},{"author":{"id":"3453969031139320","authorId":"3453969031139320","name":"核桃园","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25fedf9b900eb319d6ac642e872d7651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3453969031139320","idStr":"3453969031139320"},"content":"你从空单转为多单的时候发个帖子提醒一下我们这些虎友嘛。谢谢","text":"你从空单转为多单的时候发个帖子提醒一下我们这些虎友嘛。谢谢","html":"你从空单转为多单的时候发个帖子提醒一下我们这些虎友嘛。谢谢"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":505043531154128,"gmtCreate":1764320942834,"gmtModify":1764336002005,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"title":"百万美金!携手同行 互相成就!","htmlText":"在感恩节收到老虎证卷的里程碑礼物,感谢老虎证劵,感谢粉丝! 希望明年粉丝们也能够收获里程碑 首先预告一下,12月3号我会同另外一位嘉宾在老虎直播上和大家交流收获和想法。我主要会交流一些大家比较关心半导体的看法,如tpu和gpu未来的发展,未来对机会的一些看法<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$高通(QCOM)$ </a> ,还有苹果、闪迪、figma、sigma(锂业)、直觉外科(达芬奇手术机器人)等也可以一同交流看法。 在这里先简单聊聊最近的半导体行情,是去追asic还是gpu,我认为英伟达的地位还是无法撼动的,现在的抛售其实不用担心,首先英伟达的业绩确定性已经非常强了,burry做空英伟达只是选在了一个好时间,五万亿这个市值数字和股价200的突破都是一个很好的做空回调的机会。没有一个股票会无止境的涨下去,英伟达的成长性,今年半导体疯涨带来的未来预期收益和风险已经不成比例了。 未来我可能会把主要的仓位布局在一些ai软件公司还有特斯拉上,关注一些类似直觉外科类的公司。Robotaxi和Optimus我也很看好。 今天如果纳指能涨2.15个点,下个月继续回调的可能性会大幅度降低。如果没有,12月大概率还是会回调。 12月美联储降息,","listText":"在感恩节收到老虎证卷的里程碑礼物,感谢老虎证劵,感谢粉丝! 希望明年粉丝们也能够收获里程碑 首先预告一下,12月3号我会同另外一位嘉宾在老虎直播上和大家交流收获和想法。我主要会交流一些大家比较关心半导体的看法,如tpu和gpu未来的发展,未来对机会的一些看法<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$高通(QCOM)$ </a> ,还有苹果、闪迪、figma、sigma(锂业)、直觉外科(达芬奇手术机器人)等也可以一同交流看法。 在这里先简单聊聊最近的半导体行情,是去追asic还是gpu,我认为英伟达的地位还是无法撼动的,现在的抛售其实不用担心,首先英伟达的业绩确定性已经非常强了,burry做空英伟达只是选在了一个好时间,五万亿这个市值数字和股价200的突破都是一个很好的做空回调的机会。没有一个股票会无止境的涨下去,英伟达的成长性,今年半导体疯涨带来的未来预期收益和风险已经不成比例了。 未来我可能会把主要的仓位布局在一些ai软件公司还有特斯拉上,关注一些类似直觉外科类的公司。Robotaxi和Optimus我也很看好。 今天如果纳指能涨2.15个点,下个月继续回调的可能性会大幅度降低。如果没有,12月大概率还是会回调。 12月美联储降息,","text":"在感恩节收到老虎证卷的里程碑礼物,感谢老虎证劵,感谢粉丝! 希望明年粉丝们也能够收获里程碑 首先预告一下,12月3号我会同另外一位嘉宾在老虎直播上和大家交流收获和想法。我主要会交流一些大家比较关心半导体的看法,如tpu和gpu未来的发展,未来对机会的一些看法$特斯拉(TSLA)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $美国超微公司(AMD)$ $英特尔(INTC)$ $高通(QCOM)$ ,还有苹果、闪迪、figma、sigma(锂业)、直觉外科(达芬奇手术机器人)等也可以一同交流看法。 在这里先简单聊聊最近的半导体行情,是去追asic还是gpu,我认为英伟达的地位还是无法撼动的,现在的抛售其实不用担心,首先英伟达的业绩确定性已经非常强了,burry做空英伟达只是选在了一个好时间,五万亿这个市值数字和股价200的突破都是一个很好的做空回调的机会。没有一个股票会无止境的涨下去,英伟达的成长性,今年半导体疯涨带来的未来预期收益和风险已经不成比例了。 未来我可能会把主要的仓位布局在一些ai软件公司还有特斯拉上,关注一些类似直觉外科类的公司。Robotaxi和Optimus我也很看好。 今天如果纳指能涨2.15个点,下个月继续回调的可能性会大幅度降低。如果没有,12月大概率还是会回调。 12月美联储降息,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cacf2fbf1dc1b060240edcd0af77bdd0","width":"3024","height":"4032"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742b2d45ffd2b62ae7eb922520cf7bdc","width":"5712","height":"4284"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce35e9f8769300aba970e5e7b877297","width":"3024","height":"4032"}],"top":2,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":27,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505043531154128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575780757420388","authorId":"3575780757420388","name":"effortless","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee344b91f3bfa737b20268d506570b71","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575780757420388","idStr":"3575780757420388"},"content":"关注兄弟很久啦 希望能多多分享阿♥️ 希望明年自己也能拿到老虎的百万里程碑","text":"关注兄弟很久啦 希望能多多分享阿♥️ 希望明年自己也能拿到老虎的百万里程碑","html":"关注兄弟很久啦 希望能多多分享阿♥️ 希望明年自己也能拿到老虎的百万里程碑"},{"author":{"id":"3576417503236145","authorId":"3576417503236145","name":"hafa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576417503236145","idStr":"3576417503236145"},"content":"那就不叫大佬了[得意] ,回到正题,兄弟可以简单解惑一下。今天纳指的修复2.15个点是技术上的支撑吗","text":"那就不叫大佬了[得意] ,回到正题,兄弟可以简单解惑一下。今天纳指的修复2.15个点是技术上的支撑吗","html":"那就不叫大佬了[得意] ,回到正题,兄弟可以简单解惑一下。今天纳指的修复2.15个点是技术上的支撑吗"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":408163158213224,"gmtCreate":1740670442348,"gmtModify":1740670443676,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 下月必到220立帖为证[笑哭] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 下月必到220立帖为证[笑哭] ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 下月必到220立帖为证[笑哭]","images":[],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":24,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/408163158213224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541905104725892","authorId":"3541905104725892","name":"似的的","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3541905104725892","idStr":"3541905104725892"},"content":"请问大佬看空220但现在开了call单是短期博反弹嘛","text":"请问大佬看空220但现在开了call单是短期博反弹嘛","html":"请问大佬看空220但现在开了call单是短期博反弹嘛"},{"author":{"id":"3573208751041700","authorId":"3573208751041700","name":"无敌站神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737f57a205317ab48ac795bffc3a0c19","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573208751041700","idStr":"3573208751041700"},"content":"大佬中概股今天都暴涨了,有什么可以买的吗?","text":"大佬中概股今天都暴涨了,有什么可以买的吗?","html":"大佬中概股今天都暴涨了,有什么可以买的吗?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":513509533307336,"gmtCreate":1766395628025,"gmtModify":1766401801626,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说一下现在的看法 周五回吐了点利润 周一谷歌和纳指的空单 在坚持一下 现在看多看空都有点不确定 看这两天的走盘 今年圣诞行情其实不太看好 保住收益小仓位做做[回头] ","listText":"说一下现在的看法 周五回吐了点利润 周一谷歌和纳指的空单 在坚持一下 现在看多看空都有点不确定 看这两天的走盘 今年圣诞行情其实不太看好 保住收益小仓位做做[回头] ","text":"说一下现在的看法 周五回吐了点利润 周一谷歌和纳指的空单 在坚持一下 现在看多看空都有点不确定 看这两天的走盘 今年圣诞行情其实不太看好 保住收益小仓位做做[回头]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/513509533307336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3577426346350085","authorId":"3577426346350085","name":"听蓝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9649898e6171c7c55a5ed2cd4741c13d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577426346350085","idStr":"3577426346350085"},"content":"大佬,那今天到期的纳指put要移到多两天吗?还是止损然后开新的","text":"大佬,那今天到期的纳指put要移到多两天吗?还是止损然后开新的","html":"大佬,那今天到期的纳指put要移到多两天吗?还是止损然后开新的"},{"author":{"id":"4198919219876832","authorId":"4198919219876832","name":"啵啵啵vv","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4198919219876832","idStr":"4198919219876832"},"content":"大佬,3成仓位买八马这种小票,感觉风险很大","text":"大佬,3成仓位买八马这种小票,感觉风险很大","html":"大佬,3成仓位买八马这种小票,感觉风险很大"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512483255767272,"gmtCreate":1766144940633,"gmtModify":1766144943708,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3575780757420388\">@effortless</a>:互相学习[比心]//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3575780757420388\">@effortless</a>:一直很佩服的大神♥️希望能多多学习","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3575780757420388\">@effortless</a>:互相学习[比心]//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3575780757420388\">@effortless</a>:一直很佩服的大神♥️希望能多多学习","text":"Replying to @effortless:互相学习[比心]//@effortless:一直很佩服的大神♥️希望能多多学习","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512483255767272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4191582650727082","authorId":"4191582650727082","name":"爱鼠比","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4191582650727082","idStr":"4191582650727082"},"content":"今天还要开空单吗","text":"今天还要开空单吗","html":"今天还要开空单吗"},{"author":{"id":"3453969031139320","authorId":"3453969031139320","name":"核桃园","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25fedf9b900eb319d6ac642e872d7651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3453969031139320","idStr":"3453969031139320"},"content":"大盘昨天就涨那么猛,怎么今天还这么猛?会不会下周接着再再猛涨?还是昨天今天猛涨,然后周一下或者下周他就回调了。下周回调的话今晚收盘前布局put就正合适。","text":"大盘昨天就涨那么猛,怎么今天还这么猛?会不会下周接着再再猛涨?还是昨天今天猛涨,然后周一下或者下周他就回调了。下周回调的话今晚收盘前布局put就正合适。","html":"大盘昨天就涨那么猛,怎么今天还这么猛?会不会下周接着再再猛涨?还是昨天今天猛涨,然后周一下或者下周他就回调了。下周回调的话今晚收盘前布局put就正合适。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512483200328160,"gmtCreate":1766144931536,"gmtModify":1766144934178,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3522050789531005\">@Madagascar P</a>:哈哈 2月底 那时候有基本面呀//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3522050789531005\">@Madagascar P</a>:敢全仓做空特斯拉,是个狠人","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3522050789531005\">@Madagascar P</a>:哈哈 2月底 那时候有基本面呀//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3522050789531005\">@Madagascar P</a>:敢全仓做空特斯拉,是个狠人","text":"Replying to @Madagascar P:哈哈 2月底 那时候有基本面呀//@Madagascar P:敢全仓做空特斯拉,是个狠人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512483200328160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512482846970664,"gmtCreate":1766144909504,"gmtModify":1766144912349,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4193377325563260\">@人生舵手__小琳</a>:[比心]//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4193377325563260\">@人生舵手__小琳</a>:打call[财迷][财迷]","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4193377325563260\">@人生舵手__小琳</a>:[比心]//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4193377325563260\">@人生舵手__小琳</a>:打call[财迷][财迷]","text":"Replying to @人生舵手__小琳:[比心]//@人生舵手__小琳:打call[财迷][财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512482846970664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512482712371664,"gmtCreate":1766144896658,"gmtModify":1766144900032,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/5400656025182\">@vision</a>:[比心]谢谢美女//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/5400656025182\">@vision</a>:给 Aaron 打call","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/5400656025182\">@vision</a>:[比心]谢谢美女//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/5400656025182\">@vision</a>:给 Aaron 打call","text":"Replying to @vision:[比心]谢谢美女//@vision:给 Aaron 打call","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512482712371664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512482978070920,"gmtCreate":1766144876495,"gmtModify":1766144879758,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3560818482432945\">@Yangsirisme</a>:buy put也是买方//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3560818482432945\">@Yangsirisme</a>:做空看跌特斯拉期权那是sell put是卖方吧?买入看涨期权才是买方这样吧","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3560818482432945\">@Yangsirisme</a>:buy put也是买方//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3560818482432945\">@Yangsirisme</a>:做空看跌特斯拉期权那是sell put是卖方吧?买入看涨期权才是买方这样吧","text":"Replying to @Yangsirisme:buy put也是买方//@Yangsirisme:做空看跌特斯拉期权那是sell put是卖方吧?买入看涨期权才是买方这样吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512482978070920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512458724704456,"gmtCreate":1766138951155,"gmtModify":1766143201523,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"现在所有科技股都在压力位边<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 170<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a> 200<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$高通(QCOM)$ </a> 320<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 270 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a>36,大家都在悬崖边,我认为还有10个点左右的回调空间,美股才在健康状态。2025决战就在这几天。","listText":"现在所有科技股都在压力位边<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 170<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a> 200<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$高通(QCOM)$ </a> 320<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 270 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a>36,大家都在悬崖边,我认为还有10个点左右的回调空间,美股才在健康状态。2025决战就在这几天。","text":"现在所有科技股都在压力位边$英伟达(NVDA)$ 170$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 200$高通(QCOM)$ 320$苹果(AAPL)$ 270 $英特尔(INTC)$ 36,大家都在悬崖边,我认为还有10个点左右的回调空间,美股才在健康状态。2025决战就在这几天。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":38,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512458724704456","repostId":"2592138624","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2592138624","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1766104454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2592138624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-19 08:34","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"就在今天!史上最大规模期权到期,美股将迎来“疯狂一日”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592138624","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”,期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出,约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩,另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”,期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出,约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩,另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。</p></blockquote><p>本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡,交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。</p><p>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>数据,本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义价值的期权合约到期,创下历史最高纪录。这一天被称为所谓的“四巫日”,即股指期货、股指期权、个股期货和个股期权同时到期的日子,这种集中到期通常会放大市场交易量和波动性。</p><p><strong>在这次创纪录的到期事件中,约5万亿美元的风险敞口与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数挂钩,另有8800亿美元与个股相关。</strong>高盛指出,虽然12月的期权到期通常是全年规模最大的,但本次的规模超过了以往所有记录,其名义风险敞口相当于罗素3000指数总市值的约10.2%。</p><p>这一事件发生在美股年内已录得显著涨幅的背景下。标普500指数今年已上涨约15%,周四<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002200\">交投</a>于6770点附近。创纪录的期权到期,可能成为年底行情中的一个关键变量,为市场增添了显著的不确定性。</p><h2 id=\"id_3508771893\">史上最大规模的到期事件</h2><p>此次期权到期之所以备受关注,核心在于其前所未有的规模。根据高盛分析师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMSB\">John Marshall</a>的估算,超过7.1万亿美元的名义风险敞口将在今天集中到期。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12258f389f33008bc3ba75500181a02b\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"339\"/></p><p><strong>这一天在华尔街被称为“四巫日”(quadruple witching),每年仅发生四次,分别在3月、6月、9月和12月的第三个星期五。</strong></p><p>在这一天,四类衍生品合约同时结算,迫使交易员和做市商进行大量的平仓、展期或对冲操作,从而导致交易活动异常活跃。高盛的数据显示,仅与标普500指数相关的零日到期期权(0DTE)的交易量就已达到历史高位,占期权总交易量的62%以上,这进一步加剧了当日的复杂性。</p><h2 id=\"id_1711239824\">波动性加剧还是“钉住”效应?</h2><p>如此巨量的期权到期,可能给市场带来两种截然不同的影响。</p><p>一方面是可能加剧市场波动。KKM Financial的创始人兼首席执行官Jeff Kilburg表示:“我预计交易量将远超正常水平,因为期权交易员们需要了结2025年的盈亏。”他特别指出,标普500指数的6800点是一个重要的行权价位,市场将观察多头能否在该水平附近成功防守。</p><p>另一方面,巨量期权也可能产生“钉住”(pin)效应,反而抑制价格波动。高盛在其报告中解释,如果大量期权合约的行权价恰好等于或非常接近标的资产的当前市价(即“平价期权”),做市商为了对冲自身风险敞口而进行的操作,可能会将股价“拉”向这个被大量交易的行权价,导致股价在收盘时稳定在该水平附近。</p><p>高盛发现,包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WGS\">GeneDx Holdings</a>、BILL Holdings、Avis Budget Group和GameStop在内的个股,其即将到期的期权占其日均交易量的比例很高,因此可能更容易出现“钉住”现象。</p><h2 id=\"id_2740955182\">关键技术位与市场情绪</h2><p>从技术层面看,市场正处在一个微妙的平衡点。根据期权分析机构SpotGamma的报告,标普500指数目前处于从6700点到6900点的“负伽马”(negative gamma)区间,这意味着市场本身倾向于放大波动,即上涨时加速上涨,下跌时加速下跌。</p><p>SpotGamma将6800点视为关键的“风险枢轴”(Risk Pivot)。报告指出,如果指数能够收复并站稳在6800点之上,可能被视为开启“圣诞老人行情”的信号。然而,如果指数维持在6800点以下,下行压力将占据主导,且下方缺乏有力的技术支撑区域。该机构警告称,即使市场反弹至6800点,也可能轻易回落,只有当指数明确突破该水平后,卖出看跌期权的资金才会进场提供新的支撑。</p><p>对于寻求交易机会的投资者,SpotGamma建议,若看涨,可考虑12月31日到期的6900点附近的看涨期权价差策略;若看跌,则建议选择明年2月或3月到期的看跌期权,以规避假期期间过快的时间价值损耗。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>就在今天!史上最大规模期权到期,美股将迎来“疯狂一日”?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n就在今天!史上最大规模期权到期,美股将迎来“疯狂一日”?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-19 08:34 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”,期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出,约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩,另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡,交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据,本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY 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FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2592138624","content_text":"本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”,期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出,约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩,另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡,交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据,本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义价值的期权合约到期,创下历史最高纪录。这一天被称为所谓的“四巫日”,即股指期货、股指期权、个股期货和个股期权同时到期的日子,这种集中到期通常会放大市场交易量和波动性。在这次创纪录的到期事件中,约5万亿美元的风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩,另有8800亿美元与个股相关。高盛指出,虽然12月的期权到期通常是全年规模最大的,但本次的规模超过了以往所有记录,其名义风险敞口相当于罗素3000指数总市值的约10.2%。这一事件发生在美股年内已录得显著涨幅的背景下。标普500指数今年已上涨约15%,周四交投于6770点附近。创纪录的期权到期,可能成为年底行情中的一个关键变量,为市场增添了显著的不确定性。史上最大规模的到期事件此次期权到期之所以备受关注,核心在于其前所未有的规模。根据高盛分析师John Marshall的估算,超过7.1万亿美元的名义风险敞口将在今天集中到期。这一天在华尔街被称为“四巫日”(quadruple witching),每年仅发生四次,分别在3月、6月、9月和12月的第三个星期五。在这一天,四类衍生品合约同时结算,迫使交易员和做市商进行大量的平仓、展期或对冲操作,从而导致交易活动异常活跃。高盛的数据显示,仅与标普500指数相关的零日到期期权(0DTE)的交易量就已达到历史高位,占期权总交易量的62%以上,这进一步加剧了当日的复杂性。波动性加剧还是“钉住”效应?如此巨量的期权到期,可能给市场带来两种截然不同的影响。一方面是可能加剧市场波动。KKM Financial的创始人兼首席执行官Jeff Kilburg表示:“我预计交易量将远超正常水平,因为期权交易员们需要了结2025年的盈亏。”他特别指出,标普500指数的6800点是一个重要的行权价位,市场将观察多头能否在该水平附近成功防守。另一方面,巨量期权也可能产生“钉住”(pin)效应,反而抑制价格波动。高盛在其报告中解释,如果大量期权合约的行权价恰好等于或非常接近标的资产的当前市价(即“平价期权”),做市商为了对冲自身风险敞口而进行的操作,可能会将股价“拉”向这个被大量交易的行权价,导致股价在收盘时稳定在该水平附近。高盛发现,包括GeneDx Holdings、BILL Holdings、Avis Budget Group和GameStop在内的个股,其即将到期的期权占其日均交易量的比例很高,因此可能更容易出现“钉住”现象。关键技术位与市场情绪从技术层面看,市场正处在一个微妙的平衡点。根据期权分析机构SpotGamma的报告,标普500指数目前处于从6700点到6900点的“负伽马”(negative gamma)区间,这意味着市场本身倾向于放大波动,即上涨时加速上涨,下跌时加速下跌。SpotGamma将6800点视为关键的“风险枢轴”(Risk Pivot)。报告指出,如果指数能够收复并站稳在6800点之上,可能被视为开启“圣诞老人行情”的信号。然而,如果指数维持在6800点以下,下行压力将占据主导,且下方缺乏有力的技术支撑区域。该机构警告称,即使市场反弹至6800点,也可能轻易回落,只有当指数明确突破该水平后,卖出看跌期权的资金才会进场提供新的支撑。对于寻求交易机会的投资者,SpotGamma建议,若看涨,可考虑12月31日到期的6900点附近的看涨期权价差策略;若看跌,则建议选择明年2月或3月到期的看跌期权,以规避假期期间过快的时间价值损耗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SH":0.6,"GS":1.91,"SPY":1.87,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,".SPX":1.87,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557459315149714","authorId":"3557459315149714","name":"兔司机不开车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3ff0e3fcc9ed29b70b06a572e6d97f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557459315149714","idStr":"3557459315149714"},"content":"感觉盘前都在往上慢慢挪,希望可以过个好点的圣诞节","text":"感觉盘前都在往上慢慢挪,希望可以过个好点的圣诞节","html":"感觉盘前都在往上慢慢挪,希望可以过个好点的圣诞节"},{"author":{"id":"3581131982941689","authorId":"3581131982941689","name":"石洞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b908e73d3bcff7c51ffa3051b2d8fbdf","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581131982941689","idStr":"3581131982941689"},"content":"哥,昨晚买了一点点谷歌put,现在盘前这情况,貌似今晚普涨,我要割了吗?","text":"哥,昨晚买了一点点谷歌put,现在盘前这情况,貌似今晚普涨,我要割了吗?","html":"哥,昨晚买了一点点谷歌put,现在盘前这情况,貌似今晚普涨,我要割了吗?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511312927744352,"gmtCreate":1765859236054,"gmtModify":1765859238191,"author":{"id":"3586347563730096","authorId":"3586347563730096","name":"AaronHy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45108470b279fe06f75566e2a9699141","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586347563730096","idStr":"3586347563730096"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"最近节奏很好[爱你] ","listText":"最近节奏很好[爱你] ","text":"最近节奏很好[爱你]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511312927744352","repostId":"511324945191016","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":511324945191016,"gmtCreate":1765857900172,"gmtModify":1766145001678,"author":{"id":"37002306153600","authorId":"37002306153600","name":"小虎访谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0f6fba0673df1de1c5c31bb2b4f6d4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"37002306153600","idStr":"37002306153600"},"themes":[],"title":"百万美金之路第十期|“日内就是止损”——@Aaron_Hy 的期权哲学与反人性的套利逻辑","htmlText":"在2025年,有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列,走近已经实现年度百万美金收益的投资者,和正向着百万美金目标奔跑、年度收益超过 10 万美金 的用户,听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长对老虎来说,投资不只是盈亏的数字,而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事,激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标,让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想,变成<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/J/redeemGift?type=delivery\">看得见、够得着的里程碑</a>。在港美股市场里,有人凭直觉交易,有人靠情绪冲浪,而 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3586347563730096\">@AaronHy</a>则属于那种让同行都会肃然起敬的类型——白天创业、晚上盯盘,用扎实调研与超强执行力在高波动的期权与科技板块中一次次穿越市场噪音。他不是投机者,而是把“短线快节奏”做到了极致专业化;也不是典型价值派,却每一次入场都藏着他系统性的推演与数据支持。这一次,他把自己的实战方法、最亮眼的战绩,以及那些真正改变他投资思维的瞬间,都坦诚分享出来。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/511402332475448\t\">点击查看本期投阅笔记的完整内容。</a>创业者的另一面:投资强化了他的抗压与纪律感Aaron_Hy 创业多年,他说创业和投资不是同一件事,但创业让他变得更加谨慎,也更能扛住压力。他真正系统进入市场,是在 2017 年赚到第一桶金之后。此后,他深度参与港美股和期权市场,几乎尝试过所有流动性高的品种,如今依然偏爱美股与期权的高效率。风格:高执行力短线选手,但心里始终有长期逻辑描述自己的","listText":"在2025年,有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列,走近已经实现年度百万美金收益的投资者,和正向着百万美金目标奔跑、年度收益超过 10 万美金 的用户,听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长对老虎来说,投资不只是盈亏的数字,而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事,激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标,让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想,变成<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/J/redeemGift?type=delivery\">看得见、够得着的里程碑</a>。在港美股市场里,有人凭直觉交易,有人靠情绪冲浪,而 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3586347563730096\">@AaronHy</a>则属于那种让同行都会肃然起敬的类型——白天创业、晚上盯盘,用扎实调研与超强执行力在高波动的期权与科技板块中一次次穿越市场噪音。他不是投机者,而是把“短线快节奏”做到了极致专业化;也不是典型价值派,却每一次入场都藏着他系统性的推演与数据支持。这一次,他把自己的实战方法、最亮眼的战绩,以及那些真正改变他投资思维的瞬间,都坦诚分享出来。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/511402332475448\t\">点击查看本期投阅笔记的完整内容。</a>创业者的另一面:投资强化了他的抗压与纪律感Aaron_Hy 创业多年,他说创业和投资不是同一件事,但创业让他变得更加谨慎,也更能扛住压力。他真正系统进入市场,是在 2017 年赚到第一桶金之后。此后,他深度参与港美股和期权市场,几乎尝试过所有流动性高的品种,如今依然偏爱美股与期权的高效率。风格:高执行力短线选手,但心里始终有长期逻辑描述自己的","text":"在2025年,有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列,走近已经实现年度百万美金收益的投资者,和正向着百万美金目标奔跑、年度收益超过 10 万美金 的用户,听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长对老虎来说,投资不只是盈亏的数字,而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事,激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标,让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想,变成看得见、够得着的里程碑。在港美股市场里,有人凭直觉交易,有人靠情绪冲浪,而 @AaronHy则属于那种让同行都会肃然起敬的类型——白天创业、晚上盯盘,用扎实调研与超强执行力在高波动的期权与科技板块中一次次穿越市场噪音。他不是投机者,而是把“短线快节奏”做到了极致专业化;也不是典型价值派,却每一次入场都藏着他系统性的推演与数据支持。这一次,他把自己的实战方法、最亮眼的战绩,以及那些真正改变他投资思维的瞬间,都坦诚分享出来。点击查看本期投阅笔记的完整内容。创业者的另一面:投资强化了他的抗压与纪律感Aaron_Hy 创业多年,他说创业和投资不是同一件事,但创业让他变得更加谨慎,也更能扛住压力。他真正系统进入市场,是在 2017 年赚到第一桶金之后。此后,他深度参与港美股和期权市场,几乎尝试过所有流动性高的品种,如今依然偏爱美股与期权的高效率。风格:高执行力短线选手,但心里始终有长期逻辑描述自己的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44846289a1c57c3e651d37d6175ea195"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511324945191016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}