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- HBGHBG
  ·2021-12-18
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- HBGHBG
  ·2021-12-17
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  Economic Data Scheduled For Friday
  The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:0
  Economic Data Scheduled For Friday
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- HBGHBG
  ·2021-12-16
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  SEC Proposes Tighter Rules on Insider Trading, Stock Buybacks
  WASHINGTON—Wall Street’s regulator is putting forward tighter rules on how and when corporate inside
  SEC Proposes Tighter Rules on Insider Trading, Stock Buybacks
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- HBGHBG
  ·2021-12-15
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- HBGHBG
  ·2021-12-14
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- HBGHBG
  ·2021-12-13
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  Bull Run Enters Late Cycle
  Summary The short-term correction has probably not ended yet. Macroeconomic indicators signal furth
  Bull Run Enters Late Cycle
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- HBGHBG
  ·2021-12-12
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- HBGHBG
  ·2021-12-11
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- HBGHBG
  ·2021-12-10
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- HBGHBG
  ·2021-12-09
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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEconomic Data Scheduled For Friday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-17 17:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/12/24664201/economic-data-scheduled-for-friday><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.\nSan Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly is set to speak at 1:00 p.m. ET.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/12/24664201/economic-data-scheduled-for-friday\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/12/24664201/economic-data-scheduled-for-friday","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133747489","content_text":"The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.\nSan Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly is set to speak at 1:00 p.m. ET.\nFederal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will speak at 1:00 p.m. ET.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690315904,"gmtCreate":1639633703515,"gmtModify":1639633703715,"author":{"id":"3586502447028517","authorId":"3586502447028517","name":"HBG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586502447028517","authorIdStr":"3586502447028517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690315904","repostId":"1162912899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162912899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639633236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162912899?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 13:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SEC Proposes Tighter Rules on Insider Trading, Stock Buybacks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162912899","media":"WSJ","summary":"WASHINGTON—Wall Street’s regulator is putting forward tighter rules on how and when corporate inside","content":"<p>WASHINGTON—Wall Street’s regulator is putting forward tighter rules on how and when corporate insiders can sell their companies’ stocks, just as executives&nbsp;are cashing in at historic levels.</p>\n<p>The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed new restrictions on executive stock trading and greater disclosure requirements around company share buybacks at a meeting Wednesday. If most of the SEC’s five commissioners support these proposals, along with two others, the agency will put the changes out for public comment before voting to complete them, potentially next year.</p>\n<p>“The core issue is that these insiders regularly have material information that the public doesn’t have,” SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said in a statement. Wednesday’s proposal seeks to ensure their stock trading is done “in a way that’s fair to the marketplace,” he added.</p>\n<p>Under current rules, corporate officers and directors establish 10b5-1 plans, which schedule future share purchases or sales, to avoid running afoul of insider-trading claims.</p>\n<p>The plans&nbsp;have been controversial for years&nbsp;because there is no required public disclosure at the time a company insider sets up a plan. Some investors say the arrangements can be abused because executives can modify or cancel them, or establish a plan to sell shares the same day.</p>\n<p>The proposed rule would require corporate directors or officers to wait 120 days before trading after either adopting or modifying a 10b5-1 plan. Executives would also have to certify that they are not aware of any important information not available to the public about the company or stock when creating or modifying a plan.</p>\n<p>Companies would also have to disclose more information about their insider-trading policies and their practices around option grants that are timed within 14 days of a significant news release.</p>\n<p>Recent academic research has shown that trades occurring within 60 days of a plan’s establishment were more likely to avoid significant losses and to have come ahead of stock-price declines. The advantages disappeared after 60 days.</p>\n<p>All five SEC commissioners voted to support the 10b5-1 rule, though Republicans Hester Peirce and Elad Roisman voiced concerns that some of the proposed changes would go too far.</p>\n<p>In addition to the executive-trading proposal, commissioners will vote on proposed changes to disclosures around stock buybacks by public companies, which are also hitting records this year.</p>\n<p>Repurchases support stock prices by reducing the number of shares outstanding in a company, lifting the firm’s earnings per share. Like dividends, they enable companies to return cash to investors. But critics say buybacks allow executives who are partly paid in equity or options a roundabout way of boosting their own compensation at the expense of workers’ wages or productive investments.</p>\n<p>The SEC’s proposal would require disclosures of stock buybacks to be more detailed and more frequent. Firms would have to describe the rationale for buybacks and the criteria used to determine the amount of shares to be repurchased.</p>\n<p>Rather than disclosing monthly share repurchases once per quarter, companies would have to report buybacks on the next business day. The proposal would also require firms to indicate whether any executives bought or sold shares within 10 business days of the announcement of a buyback program.</p>\n<p>SEC officials said one goal of the proposal is to help investors determine whether there is any connection between a company’s stock-buyback program and executive compensation.</p>\n<p>Ms. Peirce and Mr. Roisman said they wouldn’t support the proposed changes around buybacks, while the commission’s three Democrats said they would.</p>\n<p>“Say ‘dividend,’ and nobody gets angry, but say ‘share buyback,’ and the rage boils over,” Ms. Peirce said. “Today’s proposal channels some of that rage against repurchases in a way that only a regulator can: through painfully granular, unnecessarily frequent disclosure obligations.”</p>\n<p>Also on Wednesday, the SEC advanced proposed changes to rules governing money-market mutual funds and to the regulation of opaque swap trades that fueled billions of dollars of losses at global investment banks earlier this year when Archegos Capital Management imploded.</p>\n<p>Under the SEC’s swap proposal, companies that place large bets using contracts that track the performance of a company’s stock—but don’t involve holding actual shares—would need to report those bets publicly. Archegos used such swaps to quietly amass big, concentrated positions in companies such as ViacomCBS Inc. and Chinese internet giant Baidu Inc.</p>\n<p>Wall Street banks typically broker such swaps. They can allow sophisticated investors to sidestep SEC rules requiring any person or firm that acquires more than 5% of a company’s shares to publicly disclose the stake. Wednesday’s proposal could bring similar disclosure requirements to swap-based trades.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SEC Proposes Tighter Rules on Insider Trading, Stock Buybacks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSEC Proposes Tighter Rules on Insider Trading, Stock Buybacks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-16 13:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-proposes-tighter-rules-on-insider-trading-stock-buybacks-11639580403?mod=markets_major_pos11><strong>WSJ</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>WASHINGTON—Wall Street’s regulator is putting forward tighter rules on how and when corporate insiders can sell their companies’ stocks, just as executives are cashing in at historic levels.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-proposes-tighter-rules-on-insider-trading-stock-buybacks-11639580403?mod=markets_major_pos11\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-proposes-tighter-rules-on-insider-trading-stock-buybacks-11639580403?mod=markets_major_pos11","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162912899","content_text":"WASHINGTON—Wall Street’s regulator is putting forward tighter rules on how and when corporate insiders can sell their companies’ stocks, just as executives are cashing in at historic levels.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission proposed new restrictions on executive stock trading and greater disclosure requirements around company share buybacks at a meeting Wednesday. If most of the SEC’s five commissioners support these proposals, along with two others, the agency will put the changes out for public comment before voting to complete them, potentially next year.\n“The core issue is that these insiders regularly have material information that the public doesn’t have,” SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said in a statement. Wednesday’s proposal seeks to ensure their stock trading is done “in a way that’s fair to the marketplace,” he added.\nUnder current rules, corporate officers and directors establish 10b5-1 plans, which schedule future share purchases or sales, to avoid running afoul of insider-trading claims.\nThe plans have been controversial for years because there is no required public disclosure at the time a company insider sets up a plan. Some investors say the arrangements can be abused because executives can modify or cancel them, or establish a plan to sell shares the same day.\nThe proposed rule would require corporate directors or officers to wait 120 days before trading after either adopting or modifying a 10b5-1 plan. Executives would also have to certify that they are not aware of any important information not available to the public about the company or stock when creating or modifying a plan.\nCompanies would also have to disclose more information about their insider-trading policies and their practices around option grants that are timed within 14 days of a significant news release.\nRecent academic research has shown that trades occurring within 60 days of a plan’s establishment were more likely to avoid significant losses and to have come ahead of stock-price declines. The advantages disappeared after 60 days.\nAll five SEC commissioners voted to support the 10b5-1 rule, though Republicans Hester Peirce and Elad Roisman voiced concerns that some of the proposed changes would go too far.\nIn addition to the executive-trading proposal, commissioners will vote on proposed changes to disclosures around stock buybacks by public companies, which are also hitting records this year.\nRepurchases support stock prices by reducing the number of shares outstanding in a company, lifting the firm’s earnings per share. Like dividends, they enable companies to return cash to investors. But critics say buybacks allow executives who are partly paid in equity or options a roundabout way of boosting their own compensation at the expense of workers’ wages or productive investments.\nThe SEC’s proposal would require disclosures of stock buybacks to be more detailed and more frequent. Firms would have to describe the rationale for buybacks and the criteria used to determine the amount of shares to be repurchased.\nRather than disclosing monthly share repurchases once per quarter, companies would have to report buybacks on the next business day. The proposal would also require firms to indicate whether any executives bought or sold shares within 10 business days of the announcement of a buyback program.\nSEC officials said one goal of the proposal is to help investors determine whether there is any connection between a company’s stock-buyback program and executive compensation.\nMs. Peirce and Mr. Roisman said they wouldn’t support the proposed changes around buybacks, while the commission’s three Democrats said they would.\n“Say ‘dividend,’ and nobody gets angry, but say ‘share buyback,’ and the rage boils over,” Ms. Peirce said. “Today’s proposal channels some of that rage against repurchases in a way that only a regulator can: through painfully granular, unnecessarily frequent disclosure obligations.”\nAlso on Wednesday, the SEC advanced proposed changes to rules governing money-market mutual funds and to the regulation of opaque swap trades that fueled billions of dollars of losses at global investment banks earlier this year when Archegos Capital Management imploded.\nUnder the SEC’s swap proposal, companies that place large bets using contracts that track the performance of a company’s stock—but don’t involve holding actual shares—would need to report those bets publicly. Archegos used such swaps to quietly amass big, concentrated positions in companies such as ViacomCBS Inc. and Chinese internet giant Baidu Inc.\nWall Street banks typically broker such swaps. They can allow sophisticated investors to sidestep SEC rules requiring any person or firm that acquires more than 5% of a company’s shares to publicly disclose the stake. Wednesday’s proposal could bring similar disclosure requirements to swap-based trades.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607685056,"gmtCreate":1639533144106,"gmtModify":1639533392139,"author":{"id":"3586502447028517","authorId":"3586502447028517","name":"HBG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586502447028517","authorIdStr":"3586502447028517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607685056","repostId":"1180785366","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607031508,"gmtCreate":1639454515697,"gmtModify":1639454515850,"author":{"id":"3586502447028517","authorId":"3586502447028517","name":"HBG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586502447028517","authorIdStr":"3586502447028517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607031508","repostId":"1174933722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2835,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604828302,"gmtCreate":1639372909750,"gmtModify":1639372911797,"author":{"id":"3586502447028517","authorId":"3586502447028517","name":"HBG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586502447028517","authorIdStr":"3586502447028517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604828302","repostId":"1169099899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>\n <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>\n <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p>\n<p>Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p>\n<p>However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p>\n<p>Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p>\n<p>Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p>\n<p>All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-13 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605770576,"gmtCreate":1639272787215,"gmtModify":1639272787403,"author":{"id":"3586502447028517","authorId":"3586502447028517","name":"HBG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586502447028517","authorIdStr":"3586502447028517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605770576","repostId":"2190674545","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605550647,"gmtCreate":1639195570519,"gmtModify":1639195570779,"author":{"id":"3586502447028517","authorId":"3586502447028517","name":"HBG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586502447028517","authorIdStr":"3586502447028517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605550647","repostId":"2190767366","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605993331,"gmtCreate":1639099012912,"gmtModify":1639099013074,"author":{"id":"3586502447028517","authorId":"3586502447028517","name":"HBG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586502447028517","authorIdStr":"3586502447028517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605993331","repostId":"2190643508","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602236528,"gmtCreate":1639024261456,"gmtModify":1639024261595,"author":{"id":"3586502447028517","authorId":"3586502447028517","name":"HBG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586502447028517","authorIdStr":"3586502447028517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602236528","repostId":"2190169579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}