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- GooYvonneGooYvonne
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- GooYvonneGooYvonne
  ·2021-06-25
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  全球风向标新高不断，下半年大类资产谁更胜一筹？
  周四，美国初请失业金人数超预期并未吓倒投资者，美股三大指数高开高走全线收涨，风向标纳指再度创下收盘纪录新高。美国总统拜登当地时间6月24日宣布，他已经与两党参议员达成了基础设施协议。拜登称，双方都做
  全球风向标新高不断，下半年大类资产谁更胜一筹？
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10:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"全球风向标新高不断，下半年大类资产谁更胜一筹？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146026823","media":"Wind万得","summary":"周四，美国初请失业金人数超预期并未吓倒投资者，美股三大指数高开高走全线收涨，风向标纳指再度创下收盘纪录新高。\n美国总统拜登当地时间6月24日宣布，他已经与两党参议员达成了基础设施协议。拜登称，双方都做","content":"<p>周四，美国初请失业金人数超预期并未吓倒投资者，美股三大指数高开高走全线收涨，风向标纳指再度创下收盘纪录新高。</p>\n<p>美国总统拜登当地时间6月24日宣布，他已经与两党参议员达成了基础设施协议。拜登称，双方都做出了妥协，希望达成一项罕见的协议。</p>\n<p><b>截至收盘，欧美股市集体收涨，纳指和标普500指数刷新历史新高。道指涨0.95%，标普500指数涨0.58%，纳指涨0.69%。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>涨近3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>涨2.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>涨2.1%，纷纷领涨道指。钢铁、基建板块走强。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">美国钢铁</a>涨超3%。欧股集体收涨，德国DAX指数涨0.86%。</p>\n<p><b>今年以来全球风险资产齐涨</b></p>\n<p>今年以来，全球宽松周期下，超高储蓄率向消费与投资转化，带来经济复苏和通胀压力。风险资产估值提升，全球主要股指、大宗商品价格均出现上涨。<b>上半年主要资产表现排序为：商品&gt;股票&gt;债券。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c03b7a51e449079415a4e448e46219\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"1278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">&nbsp;</p>\n<p><b>下半年哪些大类资产可配置？</b></p>\n<p>展望今年下半年，投资者无疑更为关注大类资产中谁能表现更胜一筹。</p>\n<p>对此，银河证券分析认为，从泰勒规则看美联储“缩表+加息”，缩表条件已经满足，加息或早于市场预期。<b>下半年大概率进入缩减QE引导期和加息预期上行期</b>。</p>\n<p>银河证券表示，金融体系流动性过剩，货币供需极度失衡，流动性边际收紧预期难以真正撼动市场，存量仍将主导资产表现。</p>\n<p><b>美债：</b>长债利率虽然有上行压力，但短端利率维持低位，抑制上行空间，期限利差窄幅震荡。</p>\n<p><b>美元指数：</b>货币延续宽松，美元延续弱势。</p>\n<p><b>权益市场：</b>边际收紧预期扰动市场情绪，但美长债利率上行空间受限，股市风险偏好不会受根本影响，基本面决定股市表现。</p>\n<p><b>中国长债利率：</b>延续窄幅震荡格局。全球流动性宽松外溢+新经济结构，利率上有顶。基本面保持韧性，弱美元&amp;通胀亦构成国内长债一定上行压力，利率下有底。</p>\n<p><b>中国股市：</b>在货币环境和经济基本面环境都相对稳定的环境下，亦难出现趋势性机会，但中国新经济结构背景下，不乏结构性机会。</p>\n<p><b>经济复苏逻辑：</b>下半年属于美通胀高位并叠加欧、美经济延续修复，制造业补库存，本次通胀周期仍未结束，拐点尚需等待。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97325e54e7024624a72ae734d21790e0\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>建议下半年配置以“周期错位”为主线：维持超配海外资产，分享经济复苏成果；<b>提前布局中国资产，抓住疫后成长新机会。</b></p>\n<p>从中国市场的角度，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>对下半年大类资产的排序为海外&gt;债券&gt;商品&gt;股票&gt;黄金。</b>具体配置建议如下：</p>\n<p>1、标配中国股票资产，短期谨慎，长期乐观，轻指数、重结构、偏成长；<b>中国股票资产中相对看多港股；</b></p>\n<p>2、超配海外风险资产，待政策退出预期更明确，<b>美股下半年波动可能加大，择机减配，维持超配欧洲；</b></p>\n<p>3、相机增配利率债，维持低配信用债；</p>\n<p>4、<b>标配商品</b>，商品之中相对看好石油与工业金属，<b>看空黄金</b>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球风向标新高不断，下半年大类资产谁更胜一筹？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球风向标新高不断，下半年大类资产谁更胜一筹？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-25 10:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四，美国初请失业金人数超预期并未吓倒投资者，美股三大指数高开高走全线收涨，风向标纳指再度创下收盘纪录新高。</p>\n<p>美国总统拜登当地时间6月24日宣布，他已经与两党参议员达成了基础设施协议。拜登称，双方都做出了妥协，希望达成一项罕见的协议。</p>\n<p><b>截至收盘，欧美股市集体收涨，纳指和标普500指数刷新历史新高。道指涨0.95%，标普500指数涨0.58%，纳指涨0.69%。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>涨近3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>涨2.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>涨2.1%，纷纷领涨道指。钢铁、基建板块走强。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">美国钢铁</a>涨超3%。欧股集体收涨，德国DAX指数涨0.86%。</p>\n<p><b>今年以来全球风险资产齐涨</b></p>\n<p>今年以来，全球宽松周期下，超高储蓄率向消费与投资转化，带来经济复苏和通胀压力。风险资产估值提升，全球主要股指、大宗商品价格均出现上涨。<b>上半年主要资产表现排序为：商品&gt;股票&gt;债券。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c03b7a51e449079415a4e448e46219\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"1278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">&nbsp;</p>\n<p><b>下半年哪些大类资产可配置？</b></p>\n<p>展望今年下半年，投资者无疑更为关注大类资产中谁能表现更胜一筹。</p>\n<p>对此，银河证券分析认为，从泰勒规则看美联储“缩表+加息”，缩表条件已经满足，加息或早于市场预期。<b>下半年大概率进入缩减QE引导期和加息预期上行期</b>。</p>\n<p>银河证券表示，金融体系流动性过剩，货币供需极度失衡，流动性边际收紧预期难以真正撼动市场，存量仍将主导资产表现。</p>\n<p><b>美债：</b>长债利率虽然有上行压力，但短端利率维持低位，抑制上行空间，期限利差窄幅震荡。</p>\n<p><b>美元指数：</b>货币延续宽松，美元延续弱势。</p>\n<p><b>权益市场：</b>边际收紧预期扰动市场情绪，但美长债利率上行空间受限，股市风险偏好不会受根本影响，基本面决定股市表现。</p>\n<p><b>中国长债利率：</b>延续窄幅震荡格局。全球流动性宽松外溢+新经济结构，利率上有顶。基本面保持韧性，弱美元&amp;通胀亦构成国内长债一定上行压力，利率下有底。</p>\n<p><b>中国股市：</b>在货币环境和经济基本面环境都相对稳定的环境下，亦难出现趋势性机会，但中国新经济结构背景下，不乏结构性机会。</p>\n<p><b>经济复苏逻辑：</b>下半年属于美通胀高位并叠加欧、美经济延续修复，制造业补库存，本次通胀周期仍未结束，拐点尚需等待。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97325e54e7024624a72ae734d21790e0\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>建议下半年配置以“周期错位”为主线：维持超配海外资产，分享经济复苏成果；<b>提前布局中国资产，抓住疫后成长新机会。</b></p>\n<p>从中国市场的角度，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>对下半年大类资产的排序为海外&gt;债券&gt;商品&gt;股票&gt;黄金。</b>具体配置建议如下：</p>\n<p>1、标配中国股票资产，短期谨慎，长期乐观，轻指数、重结构、偏成长；<b>中国股票资产中相对看多港股；</b></p>\n<p>2、超配海外风险资产，待政策退出预期更明确，<b>美股下半年波动可能加大，择机减配，维持超配欧洲；</b></p>\n<p>3、相机增配利率债，维持低配信用债；</p>\n<p>4、<b>标配商品</b>，商品之中相对看好石油与工业金属，<b>看空黄金</b>。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146026823","content_text":"周四，美国初请失业金人数超预期并未吓倒投资者，美股三大指数高开高走全线收涨，风向标纳指再度创下收盘纪录新高。\n美国总统拜登当地时间6月24日宣布，他已经与两党参议员达成了基础设施协议。拜登称，双方都做出了妥协，希望达成一项罕见的协议。\n截至收盘，欧美股市集体收涨，纳指和标普500指数刷新历史新高。道指涨0.95%，标普500指数涨0.58%，纳指涨0.69%。波音涨近3%，卡特彼勒涨2.6%，高盛涨2.1%，纷纷领涨道指。钢铁、基建板块走强。美国钢铁涨超3%。欧股集体收涨，德国DAX指数涨0.86%。\n今年以来全球风险资产齐涨\n今年以来，全球宽松周期下，超高储蓄率向消费与投资转化，带来经济复苏和通胀压力。风险资产估值提升，全球主要股指、大宗商品价格均出现上涨。上半年主要资产表现排序为：商品>股票>债券。\n \n下半年哪些大类资产可配置？\n展望今年下半年，投资者无疑更为关注大类资产中谁能表现更胜一筹。\n对此，银河证券分析认为，从泰勒规则看美联储“缩表+加息”，缩表条件已经满足，加息或早于市场预期。下半年大概率进入缩减QE引导期和加息预期上行期。\n银河证券表示，金融体系流动性过剩，货币供需极度失衡，流动性边际收紧预期难以真正撼动市场，存量仍将主导资产表现。\n美债：长债利率虽然有上行压力，但短端利率维持低位，抑制上行空间，期限利差窄幅震荡。\n美元指数：货币延续宽松，美元延续弱势。\n权益市场：边际收紧预期扰动市场情绪，但美长债利率上行空间受限，股市风险偏好不会受根本影响，基本面决定股市表现。\n中国长债利率：延续窄幅震荡格局。全球流动性宽松外溢+新经济结构，利率上有顶。基本面保持韧性，弱美元&通胀亦构成国内长债一定上行压力，利率下有底。\n中国股市：在货币环境和经济基本面环境都相对稳定的环境下，亦难出现趋势性机会，但中国新经济结构背景下，不乏结构性机会。\n经济复苏逻辑：下半年属于美通胀高位并叠加欧、美经济延续修复，制造业补库存，本次通胀周期仍未结束，拐点尚需等待。\n\n中金公司建议下半年配置以“周期错位”为主线：维持超配海外资产，分享经济复苏成果；提前布局中国资产，抓住疫后成长新机会。\n从中国市场的角度，中金公司对下半年大类资产的排序为海外>债券>商品>股票>黄金。具体配置建议如下：\n1、标配中国股票资产，短期谨慎，长期乐观，轻指数、重结构、偏成长；中国股票资产中相对看多港股；\n2、超配海外风险资产，待政策退出预期更明确，美股下半年波动可能加大，择机减配，维持超配欧洲；\n3、相机增配利率债，维持低配信用债；\n4、标配商品，商品之中相对看好石油与工业金属，看空黄金。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}