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- JoeyC37JoeyC37
  ·2021-08-16
  Nio definitely still has room for growth
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- JoeyC37JoeyC37
  ·2021-08-04
  Good time to get in!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- JoeyC37JoeyC37
  ·2021-08-04
  Here we go!
  August spooks many stock investors but it’s actually one of the Dow’s best months<blockquote>八月让许多股票投资者感到害怕，但实际上是道琼斯指数表现最好的月份之一</blockquote>
  August has delivered investors above-average gains over much of the U.S. market’s history So many in
  August spooks many stock investors but it’s actually one of the Dow’s best months<blockquote>八月让许多股票投资者感到害怕，但实际上是道琼斯指数表现最好的月份之一</blockquote>
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definitely still has room for growth&nbsp;","listText":"Nio definitely still has room for growth&nbsp;","text":"Nio definitely still has room for growth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830489100","repostId":"1100841503","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807416548,"gmtCreate":1628049485684,"gmtModify":1633754034433,"author":{"id":"3586820504520255","authorId":"3586820504520255","name":"JoeyC37","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae07d4fe9e4c852c92777347ca1ead6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586820504520255","idStr":"3586820504520255"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good time to get in!","listText":"Good time to get in!","text":"Good time to get in!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807416548","repostId":"1124524228","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807501250,"gmtCreate":1628041756070,"gmtModify":1633754127372,"author":{"id":"3586820504520255","authorId":"3586820504520255","name":"JoeyC37","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae07d4fe9e4c852c92777347ca1ead6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586820504520255","idStr":"3586820504520255"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Here we go!","listText":"Here we go!","text":"Here we go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807501250","repostId":"1152790915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152790915","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628039400,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152790915?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"August spooks many stock investors but it’s actually one of the Dow’s best months<blockquote>八月让许多股票投资者感到害怕，但实际上是道琼斯指数表现最好的月份之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152790915","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"August has delivered investors above-average gains over much of the U.S. market’s history\nSo many in","content":"<p>August has delivered investors above-average gains over much of the U.S. market’s history</p><p><blockquote>8 月份为投资者带来了美国市场历史上大部分时间高于平均水平的收益</blockquote></p><p> So many investors believe that stocks perform poorly in August that a shrewd contrarian bet would be that the market will be up this month. Moreover, August is typically a positive month for U.S. stocks. In fact, August has been the best month for stocks over much of the U.S. market’s history.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者认为股市在 8 月份表现不佳，因此精明的逆向押注是市场本月将上涨。此外，八月对于美国股市来说通常是一个积极的月份。事实上，在美国市场历史上的大部分时间里，8 月份都是股市表现最好的月份。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the monthly average returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;back to its creation in 1896. Over the 90 years until 1986, August was the best-performing month with an average gain of 1.8%, compared to 0.4% for the other months of the calendar.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下道琼斯工业平均指数自 1896 年创建以来的月平均回报率。在 1986 年之前的 90 年里，8 月份是表现最好的月份，平均涨幅为 1.8%，而其他月份的涨幅为 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet since 1986 the reverse has been true, with August being the worst month — posting an average loss of 0.7%, versus an average gain of 0.9% for the other months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，自1986年以来，情况正好相反，8月份是最糟糕的月份——平均亏损0.7%，而其他月份的平均涨幅为0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors who are wary of August’s terrible seasonal tendencies are focusing on this more recent history and ignoring the long-ago record.</p><p><blockquote>对八月份可怕的季节性趋势保持警惕的投资者正把注意力集中在最近的历史上，而忽略了很久以前的记录。</blockquote></p><p> There’s nothing magical about 1986, by the way. I chose that as the year to divide the historical sample because that was the end date of an early academic analysis of the Dow’s seasonal tendencies. That study, by Josef Lakonishok of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Seymour Smidt of Cornell University, was entitled “Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective.” It appeared in<i>The Review of Financial Studies</i>in 1988 and reported that August was indeed the best month for U.S. stocks, on average.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，1986 年并没有什么神奇之处。我选择这一年作为划分历史样本的年份，因为那是对道琼斯指数季节性趋势进行早期学术分析的结束日期。这项研究由伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校的约瑟夫-拉科尼肖克（Josef Lakonishok）和康奈尔大学的西摩-斯密特（Seymour Smidt）共同完成，题为《季节性异常是真实的吗？九十年的视角》。它出现在<i>金融研究综述</i>1988 年报告称，平均而言，8 月确实是美国股市表现最好的月份。</blockquote></p><p> It perhaps is not surprising that the market’s August’s fortunes turned south almost immediately after that study appeared. Stock market patterns often stop working once too many investors become aware of them.</p><p><blockquote>该研究报告发布后，市场 8 月份的命运几乎立即转向南方，这也许并不奇怪。一旦太多的投资者意识到股票市场模式，它们往往会停止工作。</blockquote></p><p> Investors who bet on August because of that study didn’t read it very carefully, however. The authors wrote that, even though August came out on top in a ranking of average monthly returns up until then, “there is no consistent monthly pattern in the stock market.” Their conclusion is even truer today, of course.</p><p><blockquote>不过，因为这项研究而押注 8 月份的投资者并没有仔细阅读该研究。作者写道，尽管 8 月份在此之前的月平均回报率排名中名列前茅，但 “股市并没有一致的月度模式”。当然，他们的结论在今天更加正确。</blockquote></p><p> Still, it’s worth noting that, when focusing on all years since 1896, August remains an above-average month. Its average gain is 1.1%, nearly double the 0.6% average for all other months. So if you had to bet on history repeating itself, you’d expect August to be an above-average month for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，值得注意的是，从 1896 年以来的所有年份来看，8 月仍然是一个高于平均水平的月份。其平均涨幅为 1.1%，几乎是其他所有月份 0.6% 平均水平的两倍。因此，如果你不得不打赌历史会重演，你会认为 8 月份的股市将高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> The investment lesson from this discussion is the importance of focusing on more than the recent past. It’s human nature to violate this rule, of course; this violation has even been given a name by behavioral economists — “recency bias.” But the long-ago history is no less important.</p><p><blockquote>从这次讨论中得到的投资教训是，关注不仅仅是最近的过去的重要性。当然，违反这条规则是人之常情；行为经济学家甚至给这种违规行为起了一个名字--“新近偏差”。但是很久以前的历史同样重要。</blockquote></p><p> Always focus on as much data as are available when trying to read historical tea leaves. Upon doing that, you discover that the stock market in August is not, from a strict statistical perspective, destined to be better or worse than average. That doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rise a lot this month — or plunge. But if it does, it won’t be because it’s August.</p><p><blockquote>当试图阅读历史茶叶时，总是关注尽可能多的数据。这样做之后，你会发现，从严格的统计角度来看，8月份的股市注定不会比平均水平好或差。这并不意味着本月股市不会大幅上涨，也不会暴跌。但如果是这样，那也不是因为现在是八月。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>August spooks many stock investors but it’s actually one of the Dow’s best months<blockquote>八月让许多股票投资者感到害怕，但实际上是道琼斯指数表现最好的月份之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAugust spooks many stock investors but it’s actually one of the Dow’s best months<blockquote>八月让许多股票投资者感到害怕，但实际上是道琼斯指数表现最好的月份之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 09:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>August has delivered investors above-average gains over much of the U.S. market’s history</p><p><blockquote>8 月份为投资者带来了美国市场历史上大部分时间高于平均水平的收益</blockquote></p><p> So many investors believe that stocks perform poorly in August that a shrewd contrarian bet would be that the market will be up this month. Moreover, August is typically a positive month for U.S. stocks. In fact, August has been the best month for stocks over much of the U.S. market’s history.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者认为股市在 8 月份表现不佳，因此精明的逆向押注是市场本月将上涨。此外，八月对于美国股市来说通常是一个积极的月份。事实上，在美国市场历史上的大部分时间里，8 月份都是股市表现最好的月份。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the monthly average returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;back to its creation in 1896. Over the 90 years until 1986, August was the best-performing month with an average gain of 1.8%, compared to 0.4% for the other months of the calendar.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下道琼斯工业平均指数自 1896 年创建以来的月平均回报率。在 1986 年之前的 90 年里，8 月份是表现最好的月份，平均涨幅为 1.8%，而其他月份的涨幅为 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet since 1986 the reverse has been true, with August being the worst month — posting an average loss of 0.7%, versus an average gain of 0.9% for the other months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，自1986年以来，情况正好相反，8月份是最糟糕的月份——平均亏损0.7%，而其他月份的平均涨幅为0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors who are wary of August’s terrible seasonal tendencies are focusing on this more recent history and ignoring the long-ago record.</p><p><blockquote>对八月份可怕的季节性趋势保持警惕的投资者正把注意力集中在最近的历史上，而忽略了很久以前的记录。</blockquote></p><p> There’s nothing magical about 1986, by the way. I chose that as the year to divide the historical sample because that was the end date of an early academic analysis of the Dow’s seasonal tendencies. That study, by Josef Lakonishok of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Seymour Smidt of Cornell University, was entitled “Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective.” It appeared in<i>The Review of Financial Studies</i>in 1988 and reported that August was indeed the best month for U.S. stocks, on average.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，1986 年并没有什么神奇之处。我选择这一年作为划分历史样本的年份，因为那是对道琼斯指数季节性趋势进行早期学术分析的结束日期。这项研究由伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校的约瑟夫-拉科尼肖克（Josef Lakonishok）和康奈尔大学的西摩-斯密特（Seymour Smidt）共同完成，题为《季节性异常是真实的吗？九十年的视角》。它出现在<i>金融研究综述</i>1988 年报告称，平均而言，8 月确实是美国股市表现最好的月份。</blockquote></p><p> It perhaps is not surprising that the market’s August’s fortunes turned south almost immediately after that study appeared. Stock market patterns often stop working once too many investors become aware of them.</p><p><blockquote>该研究报告发布后，市场 8 月份的命运几乎立即转向南方，这也许并不奇怪。一旦太多的投资者意识到股票市场模式，它们往往会停止工作。</blockquote></p><p> Investors who bet on August because of that study didn’t read it very carefully, however. The authors wrote that, even though August came out on top in a ranking of average monthly returns up until then, “there is no consistent monthly pattern in the stock market.” Their conclusion is even truer today, of course.</p><p><blockquote>不过，因为这项研究而押注 8 月份的投资者并没有仔细阅读该研究。作者写道，尽管 8 月份在此之前的月平均回报率排名中名列前茅，但 “股市并没有一致的月度模式”。当然，他们的结论在今天更加正确。</blockquote></p><p> Still, it’s worth noting that, when focusing on all years since 1896, August remains an above-average month. Its average gain is 1.1%, nearly double the 0.6% average for all other months. So if you had to bet on history repeating itself, you’d expect August to be an above-average month for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，值得注意的是，从 1896 年以来的所有年份来看，8 月仍然是一个高于平均水平的月份。其平均涨幅为 1.1%，几乎是其他所有月份 0.6% 平均水平的两倍。因此，如果你不得不打赌历史会重演，你会认为 8 月份的股市将高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> The investment lesson from this discussion is the importance of focusing on more than the recent past. It’s human nature to violate this rule, of course; this violation has even been given a name by behavioral economists — “recency bias.” But the long-ago history is no less important.</p><p><blockquote>从这次讨论中得到的投资教训是，关注不仅仅是最近的过去的重要性。当然，违反这条规则是人之常情；行为经济学家甚至给这种违规行为起了一个名字--“新近偏差”。但是很久以前的历史同样重要。</blockquote></p><p> Always focus on as much data as are available when trying to read historical tea leaves. Upon doing that, you discover that the stock market in August is not, from a strict statistical perspective, destined to be better or worse than average. That doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rise a lot this month — or plunge. But if it does, it won’t be because it’s August.</p><p><blockquote>当试图阅读历史茶叶时，总是关注尽可能多的数据。这样做之后，你会发现，从严格的统计角度来看，8月份的股市注定不会比平均水平好或差。这并不意味着本月股市不会大幅上涨，也不会暴跌。但如果是这样，那也不是因为现在是八月。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-may-not-believe-it-but-august-actually-is-a-great-time-to-be-in-stocks-11627980066?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-may-not-believe-it-but-august-actually-is-a-great-time-to-be-in-stocks-11627980066?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152790915","content_text":"August has delivered investors above-average gains over much of the U.S. market’s history\nSo many investors believe that stocks perform poorly in August that a shrewd contrarian bet would be that the market will be up this month. Moreover, August is typically a positive month for U.S. stocks. In fact, August has been the best month for stocks over much of the U.S. market’s history.\nConsider the monthly average returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in 1896. Over the 90 years until 1986, August was the best-performing month with an average gain of 1.8%, compared to 0.4% for the other months of the calendar.\nYet since 1986 the reverse has been true, with August being the worst month — posting an average loss of 0.7%, versus an average gain of 0.9% for the other months.\nInvestors who are wary of August’s terrible seasonal tendencies are focusing on this more recent history and ignoring the long-ago record.\nThere’s nothing magical about 1986, by the way. I chose that as the year to divide the historical sample because that was the end date of an early academic analysis of the Dow’s seasonal tendencies. That study, by Josef Lakonishok of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Seymour Smidt of Cornell University, was entitled “Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective.” It appeared inThe Review of Financial Studiesin 1988 and reported that August was indeed the best month for U.S. stocks, on average.\nIt perhaps is not surprising that the market’s August’s fortunes turned south almost immediately after that study appeared. Stock market patterns often stop working once too many investors become aware of them.\nInvestors who bet on August because of that study didn’t read it very carefully, however. The authors wrote that, even though August came out on top in a ranking of average monthly returns up until then, “there is no consistent monthly pattern in the stock market.” Their conclusion is even truer today, of course.\nStill, it’s worth noting that, when focusing on all years since 1896, August remains an above-average month. Its average gain is 1.1%, nearly double the 0.6% average for all other months. So if you had to bet on history repeating itself, you’d expect August to be an above-average month for stocks.\nThe investment lesson from this discussion is the importance of focusing on more than the recent past. It’s human nature to violate this rule, of course; this violation has even been given a name by behavioral economists — “recency bias.” But the long-ago history is no less important.\nAlways focus on as much data as are available when trying to read historical tea leaves. Upon doing that, you discover that the stock market in August is not, from a strict statistical perspective, destined to be better or worse than average. That doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rise a lot this month — or plunge. But if it does, it won’t be because it’s August.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}