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- Jaem_jamJaem_jam
  ·2021-07-01
  Nice
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- Jaem_jamJaem_jam
  ·2021-06-26
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  FedEx Reports Earnings on Thursday. Why the Stock Can Still Deliver.
  FedEx can charge higher fees when demand strengthens, thanks to the duopoly it shares with United Pa
  FedEx Reports Earnings on Thursday. Why the Stock Can Still Deliver.
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- Jaem_jamJaem_jam
  ·2021-06-25
  Like n comment pls
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- Jaem_jamJaem_jam
  ·2021-06-24
  Like n comment pls
  The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer
  5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over. One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan
  The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer
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- Jaem_jamJaem_jam
  ·2021-06-24
  Like and comment please
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- Jaem_jamJaem_jam
  ·2021-06-24
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- Jaem_jamJaem_jam
  ·2021-06-23
  👍🏻
  Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong
  Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy. Might there be hope, after al
  Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong
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- Jaem_jamJaem_jam
  ·2021-06-18
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- Jaem_jamJaem_jam
  ·2021-06-18
  Interesting...
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Why the Stock Can Still Deliver.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186693886","media":"Barrons","summary":"FedEx can charge higher fees when demand strengthens, thanks to the duopoly it shares with United Pa","content":"<p>FedEx can charge higher fees when demand strengthens, thanks to the duopoly it shares with United Parcel Service. That should add up to a strong earnings report this week.</p>\n<p>Massive demand for shipping—even as companies charge more for their products due to supply constraints—has allowed FedEx (ticker: FDX) to hike its prices without added expenses, explains Rick Patterson, an analyst at Loop Capital Markets. That helps drive profit margins, which are expected to expand to 8.3% in 2022 from 7.7% in 2021, according to&nbsp;FactSet data.</p>\n<p>Investors will get a chance to put all that to the test on June 24, whenFedEx reports earnings. The stock has fallen about 6% in the past eight trading sessions, following UPS’s (UPS)&nbsp;disappointing investor day&nbsp;on June 9. Yet Big Brown said pricing is strong and its operating profit margins should rise&nbsp;for the coming two years. That’s essentially what Patterson expects for FedEx.</p>\n<p>The overall health of the parcel shipping business is seen in analyst estimates. For its fiscal fourth quarter, FedEx is expected to report a profit of $4.98 a share, up from $2.53 a year ago, on sales of $21.5 billion, up from $17.4 billion.</p>\n<p>Its guidance for fiscal 2022 will be more important, explains Citigroup analyst&nbsp;Christian Wetherbee. He sees FedEx forecasting earnings of as much as $22 a share, above the consensus for $20.39. “We expect FedEx to be more vocal about the pricing opportunity in parcel and see a path toward $25 in EPS, which supports our long-term bull case of $550,” he writes.</p>\n<p>A big beat and strong guidance will probably be needed to move the stock higher. Shares, which closed at $285.32 on Friday, have gone nowhere since December. Yet they trade at under 14 times calendar-year 2022 estimated earnings, below UPS’s 17 times.</p>\n<p>With the stock trading like that, perhaps investors are worried about nothing. If FedEx tops estimates, don’t be surprised if its stock delivers too.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FedEx Reports Earnings on Thursday. 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Why the Stock Can Still Deliver.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 18:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/fedex-earnings-51624063524?mod=hp_LEAD_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>FedEx can charge higher fees when demand strengthens, thanks to the duopoly it shares with United Parcel Service. That should add up to a strong earnings report this week.\nMassive demand for shipping—...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/fedex-earnings-51624063524?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FDX":"联邦快递"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/fedex-earnings-51624063524?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186693886","content_text":"FedEx can charge higher fees when demand strengthens, thanks to the duopoly it shares with United Parcel Service. That should add up to a strong earnings report this week.\nMassive demand for shipping—even as companies charge more for their products due to supply constraints—has allowed FedEx (ticker: FDX) to hike its prices without added expenses, explains Rick Patterson, an analyst at Loop Capital Markets. That helps drive profit margins, which are expected to expand to 8.3% in 2022 from 7.7% in 2021, according to FactSet data.\nInvestors will get a chance to put all that to the test on June 24, whenFedEx reports earnings. The stock has fallen about 6% in the past eight trading sessions, following UPS’s (UPS) disappointing investor day on June 9. Yet Big Brown said pricing is strong and its operating profit margins should rise for the coming two years. That’s essentially what Patterson expects for FedEx.\nThe overall health of the parcel shipping business is seen in analyst estimates. For its fiscal fourth quarter, FedEx is expected to report a profit of $4.98 a share, up from $2.53 a year ago, on sales of $21.5 billion, up from $17.4 billion.\nIts guidance for fiscal 2022 will be more important, explains Citigroup analyst Christian Wetherbee. He sees FedEx forecasting earnings of as much as $22 a share, above the consensus for $20.39. “We expect FedEx to be more vocal about the pricing opportunity in parcel and see a path toward $25 in EPS, which supports our long-term bull case of $550,” he writes.\nA big beat and strong guidance will probably be needed to move the stock higher. Shares, which closed at $285.32 on Friday, have gone nowhere since December. Yet they trade at under 14 times calendar-year 2022 estimated earnings, below UPS’s 17 times.\nWith the stock trading like that, perhaps investors are worried about nothing. If FedEx tops estimates, don’t be surprised if its stock delivers too.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FDX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126736730,"gmtCreate":1624584158520,"gmtModify":1631884799885,"author":{"id":"3587039974786511","authorId":"3587039974786511","name":"Jaem_jam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369396371ba0d433a572f5c5be5a7810","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587039974786511","authorIdStr":"3587039974786511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126736730","repostId":"2146202596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126324564,"gmtCreate":1624545285758,"gmtModify":1631884799898,"author":{"id":"3587039974786511","authorId":"3587039974786511","name":"Jaem_jam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369396371ba0d433a572f5c5be5a7810","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587039974786511","authorIdStr":"3587039974786511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126324564","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187819280?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p>\n<p>Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p>\n<p>Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p>\n<p>And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p>\n<p>While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p>\n<p><b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p>\n<p><b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p>\n<p>Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p>\n<p>Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p>\n<p>The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p>\n<p><b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p>\n<p>Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p>\n<p>What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p>\n<p><b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p>\n<p>Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p>\n<p>Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p>\n<p>Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p>\n<p><b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p>\n<p>For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p>\n<p>The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p>\n<p>Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p>\n<p><b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p>\n<p>Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p>\n<p>But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p>\n<p>Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 18:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128827466,"gmtCreate":1624511003955,"gmtModify":1631884799907,"author":{"id":"3587039974786511","authorId":"3587039974786511","name":"Jaem_jam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369396371ba0d433a572f5c5be5a7810","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587039974786511","authorIdStr":"3587039974786511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128827466","repostId":"1176854050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128825936,"gmtCreate":1624510917325,"gmtModify":1631884799920,"author":{"id":"3587039974786511","authorId":"3587039974786511","name":"Jaem_jam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369396371ba0d433a572f5c5be5a7810","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587039974786511","authorIdStr":"3587039974786511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128825936","repostId":"1176854050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121841796,"gmtCreate":1624459789815,"gmtModify":1631884799932,"author":{"id":"3587039974786511","authorId":"3587039974786511","name":"Jaem_jam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369396371ba0d433a572f5c5be5a7810","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587039974786511","authorIdStr":"3587039974786511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121841796","repostId":"1198462718","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198462718","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624448358,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198462718?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198462718","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after al","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Might there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.</p>\n<p>My argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).</p>\n<p>Some readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.</p>\n<p>This escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&amp;P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”</p>\n<p>If so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&amp;P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.</p>\n<p>This is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”</p>\n<p>How then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)</p>\n<p><b>Investment implication</b></p>\n<p>The implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).</p>\n<p>But even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.</p>\n<p>Consider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.</p>\n<p>The bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 19:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198462718","content_text":"Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.\nMy argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).\nSome readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.\nThis escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”\nIf so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.\nUnfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.\nThis is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”\nHow then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)\nInvestment implication\nThe implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).\nBut even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.\nConsider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.\nThe bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166789192,"gmtCreate":1624025139516,"gmtModify":1631884799943,"author":{"id":"3587039974786511","authorId":"3587039974786511","name":"Jaem_jam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369396371ba0d433a572f5c5be5a7810","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587039974786511","authorIdStr":"3587039974786511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166789192","repostId":"2144779308","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166714502,"gmtCreate":1624025096206,"gmtModify":1631884799955,"author":{"id":"3587039974786511","authorId":"3587039974786511","name":"Jaem_jam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369396371ba0d433a572f5c5be5a7810","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587039974786511","authorIdStr":"3587039974786511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting...","listText":"Interesting...","text":"Interesting...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166714502","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}