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SuzyParkerin

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- SuzyParkerinSuzyParkerin
  ·2021-08-03
  $Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$My whole market is red today so I hope xela can be diff 😂🤦🏻‍♀️
  3,985 评论
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- SuzyParkerinSuzyParkerin
  ·2021-07-30
  $Erytech Pharma S.A.(ERYP)$trust me, faster sell alr.
  4,429 7
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- SuzyParkerinSuzyParkerin
  ·2021-07-30
  $TAL Education Group(TAL)$i feel that it will go down again at the end of market.
  2,241 评论
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- SuzyParkerinSuzyParkerin
  ·2021-07-30
  $TAL Education Group(TAL)$hmm
  2,268 评论
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- SuzyParkerinSuzyParkerin
  ·2021-07-27
  $Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$LETS GOOOO
  2,487 评论
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- SuzyParkerinSuzyParkerin
  ·2021-07-26
  Like pls
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,101 1
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- SuzyParkerinSuzyParkerin
  ·2021-07-26
  Hmmmm
  Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>
  Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report. The
  Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>
  1,996 评论
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- SuzyParkerinSuzyParkerin
  ·2021-07-24
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,505 评论
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- SuzyParkerinSuzyParkerin
  ·2021-07-22
  $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$so close yet so far...
  2,054 评论
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- SuzyParkerinSuzyParkerin
  ·2021-07-20
  Hmmm
  Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation<blockquote>收益率暴跌背后：这是一个增长故事，而不是对通胀的反思</blockquote>
  In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th
  Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation<blockquote>收益率暴跌背后：这是一个增长故事，而不是对通胀的反思</blockquote>
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>My whole market is red today so I hope xela can be diff 😂🤦🏻‍♀️","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>My whole market is red today so I hope xela can be diff 😂🤦🏻‍♀️","text":"$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$My whole market is red today so I hope xela can be diff 😂🤦🏻‍♀️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807311220","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806654689,"gmtCreate":1627654862341,"gmtModify":1631888535170,"author":{"id":"4087437689901010","authorId":"4087437689901010","name":"SuzyParkerin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087437689901010","authorIdStr":"4087437689901010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERYP\">$Erytech Pharma S.A.(ERYP)$</a>trust me, faster sell alr.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERYP\">$Erytech Pharma S.A.(ERYP)$</a>trust me, faster sell alr.","text":"$Erytech Pharma S.A.(ERYP)$trust me, faster sell alr.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806654689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3516249167540168","authorId":"3516249167540168","name":"马库斯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3516249167540168","authorIdStr":"3516249167540168"},"content":"虽然我没买但是我相信这已经是高位了😂","text":"虽然我没买但是我相信这已经是高位了😂","html":"虽然我没买但是我相信这已经是高位了😂"},{"author":{"id":"3516249167540168","authorId":"3516249167540168","name":"马库斯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3516249167540168","authorIdStr":"3516249167540168"},"content":"哈哈还有人不信","text":"哈哈还有人不信","html":"哈哈还有人不信"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806681613,"gmtCreate":1627653590832,"gmtModify":1631884082071,"author":{"id":"4087437689901010","authorId":"4087437689901010","name":"SuzyParkerin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087437689901010","authorIdStr":"4087437689901010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$TAL Education Group(TAL)$</a>i feel that it&nbsp;will go down again at the end of market.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$TAL Education Group(TAL)$</a>i feel that it&nbsp;will go down again at the end of market.&nbsp;","text":"$TAL Education Group(TAL)$i feel that it will go down again at the end of market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806681613","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808648234,"gmtCreate":1627577513028,"gmtModify":1631884082182,"author":{"id":"4087437689901010","authorId":"4087437689901010","name":"SuzyParkerin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087437689901010","authorIdStr":"4087437689901010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$TAL Education Group(TAL)$</a>hmm","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$TAL Education Group(TAL)$</a>hmm","text":"$TAL Education Group(TAL)$hmm","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbf503b84986467bdebbf9340d12d585","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808648234","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809514437,"gmtCreate":1627378800629,"gmtModify":1631884020203,"author":{"id":"4087437689901010","authorId":"4087437689901010","name":"SuzyParkerin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087437689901010","authorIdStr":"4087437689901010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>LETS GOOOO","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>LETS GOOOO","text":"$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$LETS GOOOO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809514437","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800459576,"gmtCreate":1627313644595,"gmtModify":1631893645021,"author":{"id":"4087437689901010","authorId":"4087437689901010","name":"SuzyParkerin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087437689901010","authorIdStr":"4087437689901010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800459576","repostId":"2154957883","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800419909,"gmtCreate":1627311688801,"gmtModify":1631893645023,"author":{"id":"4087437689901010","authorId":"4087437689901010","name":"SuzyParkerin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087437689901010","authorIdStr":"4087437689901010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmmm","listText":"Hmmmm","text":"Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800419909","repostId":"1151724613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151724613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627292512,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151724613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151724613","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe ","content":"<p>Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将于周一公布第二季度收益。准备好一份非常复杂的报告。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车先驱将于 7 月 26 日星期一收盘后发布报告。据 FactSet 称，华尔街希望特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在 115 亿美元的销售额中报告每股收益约 94 美分。超出分析师预期对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说都很重要，几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable&nbsp;car company&nbsp;and its iconoclast CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破常规的首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）来说，将会有很多移动部件，甚至比平时还要多。</blockquote></p><p> Factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>影响利润的因素包括全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而，最终，投资者会希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论如何发生。这可能会打破股价近期的区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d908f359ce3333ed256684e007ff74d0\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布 2020 年第三季度营业利润超过 8 亿美元，在接下来的三个月内，该股股价翻了一番多，达到 860 美元左右。但由于营业利润增长在随后几个季度基本暂停，股价已从约 860 美元跌至最近的 640 美元左右。利润停滞也意味着库存停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered&nbsp;more than 200,000&nbsp;vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说，好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录：在强劲交付的推动下，第二季度营业利润预计将达到 8.35 亿美元。2021年第二季度标志着特斯拉首次在单季度交付超过20万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla&nbsp;beat earnings&nbsp;estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>财报消化完毕后，多头和空头之间关于财报质量的争论应该会层出不穷。例如，特斯拉创造销售额的一种方式是出售监管积分——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来获得这些积分。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为 5.18 亿美元，帮助特斯拉超出盈利预期。关于信用销售额的 “正常 ”数量以及这些销售额何时会枯竭，一直存在争议。最终，多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将出售自己的电动汽车，从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue&nbsp;of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉承认其持有的比特币在第一季度略有增加，但这种加密货币的价格自 4 月份的峰值以来已经下跌了大约一半。这意味着有可能出现小幅亏损。投资者的反应谁也说不准，但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示，当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时，他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s&nbsp;Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software&nbsp;as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its&nbsp;charging network&nbsp;to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉在德国的新工厂和德克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯汀工厂将生产特斯拉的 Cybertruck。特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步--该公司最近开始以订阅的形式销售其驾驶辅助软件--以及该公司能从其充电网络中赚多少钱，也可能会有人质疑。马斯克本周在推特上表示，特斯拉将向未来的其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> Those topics and more should be discussed on the earnings&nbsp;conference call&nbsp;scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>这些话题以及更多话题应该在定于下午 5:30 举行的财报电话会议上讨论。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约 9%，落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别 17% 和 15% 的可比涨幅。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍表现强劲，过去 12 个月上涨了约 112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.<blockquote>特斯拉今天公布收益。这是最重要的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 17:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将于周一公布第二季度收益。准备好一份非常复杂的报告。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车先驱将于 7 月 26 日星期一收盘后发布报告。据 FactSet 称，华尔街希望特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在 115 亿美元的销售额中报告每股收益约 94 美分。超出分析师预期对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说都很重要，几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable&nbsp;car company&nbsp;and its iconoclast CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破常规的首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）来说，将会有很多移动部件，甚至比平时还要多。</blockquote></p><p> Factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>影响利润的因素包括全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而，最终，投资者会希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论如何发生。这可能会打破股价近期的区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d908f359ce3333ed256684e007ff74d0\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布 2020 年第三季度营业利润超过 8 亿美元，在接下来的三个月内，该股股价翻了一番多，达到 860 美元左右。但由于营业利润增长在随后几个季度基本暂停，股价已从约 860 美元跌至最近的 640 美元左右。利润停滞也意味着库存停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered&nbsp;more than 200,000&nbsp;vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说，好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录：在强劲交付的推动下，第二季度营业利润预计将达到 8.35 亿美元。2021年第二季度标志着特斯拉首次在单季度交付超过20万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla&nbsp;beat earnings&nbsp;estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>财报消化完毕后，多头和空头之间关于财报质量的争论应该会层出不穷。例如，特斯拉创造销售额的一种方式是出售监管积分——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来获得这些积分。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为 5.18 亿美元，帮助特斯拉超出盈利预期。关于信用销售额的 “正常 ”数量以及这些销售额何时会枯竭，一直存在争议。最终，多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将出售自己的电动汽车，从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue&nbsp;of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉承认其持有的比特币在第一季度略有增加，但这种加密货币的价格自 4 月份的峰值以来已经下跌了大约一半。这意味着有可能出现小幅亏损。投资者的反应谁也说不准，但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示，当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时，他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s&nbsp;Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software&nbsp;as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its&nbsp;charging network&nbsp;to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉在德国的新工厂和德克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯汀工厂将生产特斯拉的 Cybertruck。特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步--该公司最近开始以订阅的形式销售其驾驶辅助软件--以及该公司能从其充电网络中赚多少钱，也可能会有人质疑。马斯克本周在推特上表示，特斯拉将向未来的其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> Those topics and more should be discussed on the earnings&nbsp;conference call&nbsp;scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>这些话题以及更多话题应该在定于下午 5:30 举行的财报电话会议上讨论。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约 9%，落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别 17% 和 15% 的可比涨幅。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍表现强劲，过去 12 个月上涨了约 112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151724613","content_text":"Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.\nThere will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk.\nFactors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.\n\nTesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.\nThe good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.\nAfter earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.\nThere is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.\nInvestors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.\nThose topics and more should be discussed on the earnings conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174303585,"gmtCreate":1627068254247,"gmtModify":1631893645026,"author":{"id":"4087437689901010","authorId":"4087437689901010","name":"SuzyParkerin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087437689901010","authorIdStr":"4087437689901010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174303585","repostId":"2153984780","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176258789,"gmtCreate":1626897249741,"gmtModify":1631893645032,"author":{"id":"4087437689901010","authorId":"4087437689901010","name":"SuzyParkerin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087437689901010","authorIdStr":"4087437689901010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>so close yet so far...","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>so close yet so far...","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$so close yet so far...","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfc70a4698c18ba779520230973c6cb","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176258789","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178157998,"gmtCreate":1626793553814,"gmtModify":1631893645035,"author":{"id":"4087437689901010","authorId":"4087437689901010","name":"SuzyParkerin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087437689901010","authorIdStr":"4087437689901010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178157998","repostId":"1109861258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109861258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626793354,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1109861258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation<blockquote>收益率暴跌背后：这是一个增长故事，而不是对通胀的反思</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109861258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in th","content":"<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，隔夜交易中，最近的国债反弹最初试图小幅逆转，但遭到了进一步的购买兴趣。最终结果是 10 年期国债收益率略有下降，使基准利率达到 2 月中旬以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p><p><blockquote>距离下一个技术目标门槛还有 5 个基点，我们将关注风险资产与美国利率之间的相互作用，因为受 delta 启发的重新定价仍在继续。我们认识到，最近这一举措的严重性导致动量措施捉襟见肘，这意味着增量收益将更加难以实现。这并不是说目前利率下限很明显，而是说应该预计反弹的步伐将会放缓。<b>围绕 10 年期国债收益率可能跌破 1.0% 的可能性有很多讨论；这种可能性是短暂的，但不是不可能的。</b>然而，更直接的是衡量病例数上升在多大程度上会导致收益率进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果得出这一举措完全是恢复新冠肺炎限制所带来的经济风险的结论，那就过于简单化了。事实上，我们认为美联储最近减少鸽派的努力夸大了这次反弹。</b>政策制定者正处于会前无线电沉默时期；这就消除了对美联储应对新出现的大流行病风险发表任何官方评论的可能性。而且，<b>这使得投资者在以下假设下操作：1）缩减加息规模仍在按计划进行；2）最早明年可能加息；3）美联储在通胀问题上的“即使不是暂时性的，也会采取行动”立场仍然有效。</b>. 虽然这些肯定在某种程度上仍然成立，但鉴于投资者对最近 covid 事态发展的反应，隐含的承诺可能正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p><p><blockquote>今早的头条新闻得出结论：“市场不再担心通货膨胀”；一个表面上与美国利率价格走势一致的概念没有抓住要点。<b>10 年盈亏平衡点仍在 225 个基点，距离 6 月中旬的低点还有一段距离。</b>此外，供应驱动型通胀上升的作用是对消费征税，而不是健康实体经济的反映，这给经济复苏带来了下行风险。当结合对上半年将代表反弹顶峰的担忧时，直观地可以看出，市场已经进入了周期的下一阶段——即重新调整增长预期，以反映新常态；群体免疫将被证明是难以捉摸的，变异风险（delta和其他）成为一个持续的问题。<b>快速浏览一下接近 -100 个基点的实际收益率，就会强化这样的解读：这是一个增长故事，而不是对通货膨胀的集体反思。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p><p><blockquote>价格走势还有另一个值得强调的细微差别。具体来说，到目前为止，随着 10 年代和 30 年代跑赢大盘，这一举动值得怀疑。由于货币政策预期保持不变，曲线的前端受益程度较小。<b>然而，今天上午，我们开始看到 5 年期板块领涨。如果我们看到从长期增长故事向进一步抵消美联储紧缩政策的过渡，这最终可能会缓和 10 年代和 30 年代的涨幅。</b>这并不意味着联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）最终使政策利率正常化的空间变小，是在大流行病卷土重来的情况下抛售久期的令人信服的理由。相反，人们相信，鉴于全球经济复苏面临新的阻力，货币政策制定者不会急于应对小规模的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有其他原因、<b>这将有助于判断下周联邦公开市场委员会会议和鲍威尔新闻发布会的预期。</b>请注意，鉴于下周公布的第二季度实际国内生产总值（Q2）数据的一致预期为+8.1%，毫无疑问，上半年将出现强劲反弹，投资者已转向复苏的下一阶段，而复苏的下一阶段存在更大的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p><p><blockquote>如果实际收益率的变动表明人们对反弹的担忧与日俱增；10年期实际利率达到1月初以来的最低水平，距离周期低点-112.4个基点不远。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于周四价值 160 亿美元的新一期 10 年期 TIPS 拍卖临近，雷亚尔的下跌更加值得注意。目前的估值表明，人们不仅越来越担心德尔塔变异毒株在国内的蔓延，而且更重要的是，对海外的蔓延也越来越担心。尽管曾经有一段时间，美国的利率格局完全由国内基本面决定，但经济和市场的全球化现在使国债收益率成为全球背景的函数。这有助于解释令人印象深刻的一轮看涨情绪和对 USTs 竞购的持久性，尽管数据总体上继续表现良好。我们想起了一句久经考验的格言，即阻力很难在第三次尝试中站稳脚跟，并将在本周剩余时间内监测 10 年期实际收益率的 -112 个基点线。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation<blockquote>收益率暴跌背后：这是一个增长故事，而不是对通胀的反思</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Plunge In Yields: This Is A Growth Story, Not A Rethink Of Inflation<blockquote>收益率暴跌背后：这是一个增长故事，而不是对通胀的反思</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 23:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，隔夜交易中，最近的国债反弹最初试图小幅逆转，但遭到了进一步的购买兴趣。最终结果是 10 年期国债收益率略有下降，使基准利率达到 2 月中旬以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f958db8d2903a76ff6541648b287fc\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.<b>There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.</b>More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.</p><p><blockquote>距离下一个技术目标门槛还有 5 个基点，我们将关注风险资产与美国利率之间的相互作用，因为受 delta 启发的重新定价仍在继续。我们认识到，最近这一举措的严重性导致动量措施捉襟见肘，这意味着增量收益将更加难以实现。这并不是说目前利率下限很明显，而是说应该预计反弹的步伐将会放缓。<b>围绕 10 年期国债收益率可能跌破 1.0% 的可能性有很多讨论；这种可能性是短暂的，但不是不可能的。</b>然而，更直接的是衡量病例数上升在多大程度上会导致收益率进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.</b>Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,<b>it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value</b>. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果得出这一举措完全是恢复新冠肺炎限制所带来的经济风险的结论，那就过于简单化了。事实上，我们认为美联储最近减少鸽派的努力夸大了这次反弹。</b>政策制定者正处于会前无线电沉默时期；这就消除了对美联储应对新出现的大流行病风险发表任何官方评论的可能性。而且，<b>这使得投资者在以下假设下操作：1）缩减加息规模仍在按计划进行；2）最早明年可能加息；3）美联储在通胀问题上的“即使不是暂时性的，也会采取行动”立场仍然有效。</b>. 虽然这些肯定在某种程度上仍然成立，但鉴于投资者对最近 covid 事态发展的反应，隐含的承诺可能正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> Headlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.<b>10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.</b>In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.<b>A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.</b></p><p><blockquote>今早的头条新闻得出结论：“市场不再担心通货膨胀”；一个表面上与美国利率价格走势一致的概念没有抓住要点。<b>10 年盈亏平衡点仍在 225 个基点，距离 6 月中旬的低点还有一段距离。</b>此外，供应驱动型通胀上升的作用是对消费征税，而不是健康实体经济的反映，这给经济复苏带来了下行风险。当结合对上半年将代表反弹顶峰的担忧时，直观地可以看出，市场已经进入了周期的下一阶段——即重新调整增长预期，以反映新常态；群体免疫将被证明是难以捉摸的，变异风险（delta和其他）成为一个持续的问题。<b>快速浏览一下接近 -100 个基点的实际收益率，就会强化这样的解读：这是一个增长故事，而不是对通货膨胀的集体反思。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.<b>This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.</b>This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery</p><p><blockquote>价格走势还有另一个值得强调的细微差别。具体来说，到目前为止，随着 10 年代和 30 年代跑赢大盘，这一举动值得怀疑。由于货币政策预期保持不变，曲线的前端受益程度较小。<b>然而，今天上午，我们开始看到 5 年期板块领涨。如果我们看到从长期增长故事向进一步抵消美联储紧缩政策的过渡，这最终可能会缓和 10 年代和 30 年代的涨幅。</b>这并不意味着联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）最终使政策利率正常化的空间变小，是在大流行病卷土重来的情况下抛售久期的令人信服的理由。相反，人们相信，鉴于全球经济复苏面临新的阻力，货币政策制定者不会急于应对小规模的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,<b>it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.</b>Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有其他原因、<b>这将有助于判断下周联邦公开市场委员会会议和鲍威尔新闻发布会的预期。</b>请注意，鉴于下周公布的第二季度实际国内生产总值（Q2）数据的一致预期为+8.1%，毫无疑问，上半年将出现强劲反弹，投资者已转向复苏的下一阶段，而复苏的下一阶段存在更大的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> If the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.</p><p><blockquote>如果实际收益率的变动表明人们对反弹的担忧与日俱增；10年期实际利率达到1月初以来的最低水平，距离周期低点-112.4个基点不远。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add9a9864bc513a7f99d365620818f07\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于周四价值 160 亿美元的新一期 10 年期 TIPS 拍卖临近，雷亚尔的下跌更加值得注意。目前的估值表明，人们不仅越来越担心德尔塔变异毒株在国内的蔓延，而且更重要的是，对海外的蔓延也越来越担心。尽管曾经有一段时间，美国的利率格局完全由国内基本面决定，但经济和市场的全球化现在使国债收益率成为全球背景的函数。这有助于解释令人印象深刻的一轮看涨情绪和对 USTs 竞购的持久性，尽管数据总体上继续表现良好。我们想起了一句久经考验的格言，即阻力很难在第三次尝试中站稳脚跟，并将在本周剩余时间内监测 10 年期实际收益率的 -112 个基点线。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-plunge-yields-growth-story-not-rethink-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109861258","content_text":"In a notable turn of events, the overnight session saw an initial attempt at a modest reversal in the recent Treasury rally only to be met with further buying interest. The net result was a tick lower in 10-year yields that brought the benchmark to levels not seen since mid-February.\nWith the next technical target sill 5 bps away, we’ll be watching the interplay between risk assets and US rates as the delta-inspired repricing continues. We’re cognizant that the severity of the recent move has led to stretched momentum measures, implying incremental gains will be more difficult to achieve. This isn’t to suggest the floor for rates is evident at the moment, rather that it should be anticipated that the pace of the rally will slow.There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the possibility 10- year yields dip below 1.0%; an eventuality that would be a short-lived endeavor, but not one that’s off the table.More immediately however, will be gauging the extent to which rising case counts can carry yields even lower from here.\nIt would be an oversimplification to conclude this move is entirely a function of the economic risks posed by the reinstatement of covid-19 restrictions. In fact, we’ll argue the rally has been exaggerated by the Fed’s most recent efforts to be less dovish.Policymakers are in the pre-meeting radio period of radio silence; which eliminates the potential for any official commentary on the Fed’s take on the renewed pandemic risks. Moreover,it leaves investors operating under the assumption that 1) tapering is still on track, 2) rate hikes as early as next year could come to fruition, and 3) the Fed’s ‘will act if not transitory’ stance on inflation remains value. While these surely still hold true to some extent, the implied commitment may be waning given investors’ response to the recent covid developments.\nHeadlines this morning conclude ‘markets no longer worried about inflation’; a notion, which is ostensibly consistent with the price action in US rates, misses the mark.10-year breakevens are still at 225 bp and a distance away from the mid-June lows.In addition, rising supply-driven inflation that functions as a tax on consumption as opposed to a reflection of a healthy real economy creates downside risks for the recovery. When combined with concerns that H1 will represent the peak of the rebound, it follows intuitively that the market has moved on to trading the next stage in the cycle – i.e. recalibrating growth expectations in reflecting the new norm; one in which herd immunity will prove elusive and variant risks (delta and others) become an ongoing concern.A quick glance at real yields near -100 bp reinforces the read that this is a growth story, not a collective rethink of reflation.\nThere is yet another nuance of the price action that merits highlighting. Specifically, the move thus far has questionably been a flattening event as 10s and 30s outperform. The front end of the curve has benefited to a lesser extent as monetary policy expectations have remained in place.This morning however, we’re starting to see the 5-year sector lead the rally. In the event we’re seeing the transition from a longer-term growth story to further pricing out Fed tightening, this could ultimately serve to moderate the gains in 10s and 30s.This isn’t to suggest that less room for the FOMC to eventually normalize policy rates is a compelling reason to sell duration in the face of a resurgence of the pandemic. Instead, confidence that monetary policymakers won’t be so eager to respond to pockets of reflation given the renewed headwinds facing the global recovery\nWe’ll be tracking this particular evolution in the nature of the bullish repricing if, for no other reason,it will be instrumental in gauging what to anticipate in response to next week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference.Note that in light of the +8.1% consensus estimate for next week’s release of Q2 real GDP, there is little question that a strong rebound in H1 is priced in and investors have shifted toward trading the next stage in the recovery that contains far greater uncertainties.\nIf the move in real yields is any indication there is growing angst on the rebound; 10-year real rates reached their lowest level since early January and within striking distance of the cycle low at -112.4 bp.\nThe decline in reals is made all the more noteworthy given the proximity to Thursday’s $16 bn new issue 10-year TIPS auction. Current valuations demonstrate not only increasing worry on the spread of the delta variant domestically, but perhaps more consequentially, overseas. Whereas there was once a time when the US rates landscape was solely dictated by the domestic fundamentals, the globalization of the economy and markets now leave Treasury yields a function of the global backdrop. This helps account for the impressive round of bullishness and durability of the bid for USTs even as the data has generally continued to perform well. We’re reminded of the time tested adage that resistance hardly holds on the third attempt, and will monitor the -112 bp line in the sand in 10-year real yields over the balance of the week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}