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- LHHZLHHZ
  ·2021-11-16
  $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$the earlier you buy, the more profit you get
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- LHHZLHHZ
  ·2021-11-15
  $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$If this break through 135. Expect 140 tonight?
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- LHHZLHHZ
  ·2021-10-05
  [喷血]
  Stock market’s volatile October history means it’s time to steady yourself for a ‘black swan’ event<blockquote>10 月份股市的动荡历史意味着是时候为 “黑天鹅 ”事件稳定下来了</blockquote>
  U.S. stocks already are having a rough October — two trading days in. October is the most volatile m
  Stock market’s volatile October history means it’s time to steady yourself for a ‘black swan’ event<blockquote>10 月份股市的动荡历史意味着是时候为 “黑天鹅 ”事件稳定下来了</blockquote>
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- LHHZLHHZ
  ·2021-09-01
  Thanks
  September Is the Stock Market’s Worst Month. History Says This Time Could Be Different.<blockquote>九月是股市最糟糕的月份。历史表明这一次可能会有所不同。</blockquote>
  The stock market usually performs poorly in September. This year could be different, precisely becau
  September Is the Stock Market’s Worst Month. History Says This Time Could Be Different.<blockquote>九月是股市最糟糕的月份。历史表明这一次可能会有所不同。</blockquote>
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- LHHZLHHZ
  ·2021-08-26
  $Alibaba(BABA)$ I believe it will still be a dip tonight? Any pro able to give advise?
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Expect 140 tonight?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>If this break through 135. Expect 140 tonight?","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$If this break through 135. Expect 140 tonight?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873781967","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820718561,"gmtCreate":1633432249655,"gmtModify":1633432249806,"author":{"id":"4090903292078160","authorId":"4090903292078160","name":"LHHZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f049bd7d3dbb30cc720a7131ea0d0b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090903292078160","idStr":"4090903292078160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[喷血]","listText":"[喷血]","text":"[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820718561","repostId":"1121989111","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121989111","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633417444,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121989111?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-05 15:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock market’s volatile October history means it’s time to steady yourself for a ‘black swan’ event<blockquote>10 月份股市的动荡历史意味着是时候为 “黑天鹅 ”事件稳定下来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121989111","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"U.S. stocks already are having a rough October — two trading days in. October is the most volatile m","content":"<p>U.S. stocks already are having a rough October — two trading days in. October is the most volatile month for stocks — and when stocks suffered their two worst crashes in U.S. market history.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市十月份已经经历了两个交易日的艰难时期。十月是股市最波动的月份，也是美国市场历史上两次最严重的股市崩盘的月份。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there’s a 0.06% chance that the stock market this month will experience a one-day crash as bad as 1987’s Black Monday.</p><p><blockquote>此外，本月股市有 0.06% 的概率会出现像 1987 年黑色星期一那样严重的单日崩盘。</blockquote></p><p> Those odds don’t seem like much — but they are not zero. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.94% tumbled 22.6% on Oct. 19, 1987, Black Monday. An equivalent percentage drop from its current level would take more than 7,700 points off the Dow in a single trading day.</p><p><blockquote>这些几率看起来并不多，但并非零。1987年10月19日，黑色星期一，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯，-0.94%，暴跌22.6%。从当前水平下跌同等百分比将使道琼斯指数在一个交易日内下跌超过 7,700 点。</blockquote></p><p> Few investors in the market nowadays remember the trauma of Black Monday. Those who do may reassure themselves that a similar crash couldn’t happen today, given market reforms that were instituted in the wake of the selloff.</p><p><blockquote>如今市场上很少有投资者记得黑色星期一的创伤。那些这样做的人可能会向自己保证，鉴于抛售后进行的市场改革，今天不会发生类似的崩盘。</blockquote></p><p> They are kidding themselves, according to a study conducted by Xavier Gabaix, a professor of economics and finance at Harvard. He and his-coauthors derived a formula that predicts the frequency, over long periods of time, of large daily swings in the market. Upon testing the formula against hundreds of years of stock market returns in both the U.S. and around the world, they found the formula to be impressively accurate.</p><p><blockquote>根据哈佛大学经济学和金融学教授泽维尔·加贝克斯进行的一项研究，他们是在自欺欺人。他和他的合著者推导出了一个公式，可以预测市场在很长一段时间内每日大幅波动的频率。在对美国和世界各地数百年的股市回报进行测试后，他们发现该公式非常准确。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Gabaix’s formula predicts that a 22.6% drop in the market will occur every 150 years, on average, over long periods of time. That doesn’t mean such a crash will occur every 150 years, since this predicted frequency is an average over extremely long periods. So the market could experience no such crash over a 150-year period, or experience two of them (or more).</p><p><blockquote>例如，Gabaix 的公式预测，在很长一段时间内，平均每 150 年市场就会下跌 22.6%。这并不意味着这样的坠机每 150 年就会发生一次，因为这一预测频率是极长时期内的平均值。因此，市场在 150 年内可能不会经历这样的崩盘，或者经历两次（或更多次）。</blockquote></p><p> What you can’t conclude, however, is that the odds of a crash are zero.</p><p><blockquote>然而，你不能得出的结论是，坠机的几率为零。</blockquote></p><p> Why market reforms can’t prevent a crash</p><p><blockquote>为什么市场改革无法阻止崩盘</blockquote></p><p> You might object to this conclusion on the grounds that market reforms instituted since 1987 will prevent another crash from occurring — circuit breakers, trading halts and other safeguards. But, as Gabaix has explained to me many times in interviews over the years, such reforms are powerless to prevent a crash. That’s because all markets are dominated by their largest investors, and when many of them want to get out of the market simultaneously, for whatever reason, the market will crash.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会反对这一结论，理由是自1987年以来实施的市场改革将防止另一次崩盘发生——熔断、交易暂停和其他保障措施。但是，正如Gabaix多年来在采访中多次向我解释的那样，这样的改革无力阻止崩溃。这是因为所有市场都由最大的投资者主导，当他们中的许多人出于某种原因想要同时退出市场时，市场就会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> For example, even if trading halts and other restrictions succeed in preventing these large investors from selling on U.S. exchanges, they can still sell on foreign exchanges where many U.S. stocks also trade. They can also sell short with stock index futures contracts or via the purchase of put options. You’re kidding yourself if you think these large investors will be prevented from getting out if they want to.</p><p><blockquote>例如，即使交易暂停和其他限制成功阻止了这些大型投资者在美国交易所卖出，他们仍然可以在许多美国股票也交易的外汇交易所卖出。他们还可以通过股指期货合约或购买看跌期权来卖空。如果你认为这些大投资者想退出就会被阻止，那你是在自欺欺人。</blockquote></p><p> Black swans</p><p><blockquote>黑天鹅</blockquote></p><p> Gabaix’s research underlines why it’s so important to prepare for so-called black swan events like market crashes that are sudden, awful, unpredictable and rare. Notice that, by this definition, they are unpredictable, so it’s false comfort to believe you can anticipate future black swans in time to reduce your portfolio risk and thereby sidestep a market crash. Did you foresee the COVID-induced bear market in time to avoid big losses?</p><p><blockquote>Gabaix 的研究强调了为什么为所谓的黑天鹅事件（如突发、可怕、不可预测和罕见的市场崩盘）做好准备如此重要。请注意，根据这个定义，黑天鹅是不可预测的，因此认为你可以及时预测未来的黑天鹅，从而降低投资组合风险，从而避免市场崩盘，这是一种虚假的安慰。您是否及时预见到了COVID引发的熊市以避免巨大损失？</blockquote></p><p> The investment implication is to make changes to your portfolio that will protect you from a crash, if and when it occurs. It’s like buying fire insurance on your house. Most of you will not ever have your houses burn down, but that’s not a reason forego fire insurance. I doubt any of you complain about having to purchase such insurance, since the downside risk of losing everything is sufficiently awful.</p><p><blockquote>投资的含义是对你的投资组合做出改变，这将保护你免受崩盘的影响，如果崩盘发生的话。这就像给房子买火灾保险一样。大多数人都不会让自己的房子被烧毁，但这并不是放弃火灾保险的理由。我怀疑你们中没有人会抱怨不得不购买这样的保险，因为失去一切的下行风险已经足够可怕了。</blockquote></p><p> What might be the functional equivalent of fire insurance for your stock portfolio? I discussed several different possibilities in acolumn this summer, and I direct your attention to it.</p><p><blockquote>对于您的股票投资组合来说，火灾保险的功能等价物是什么？今年夏天，我在专栏中讨论了几种不同的可能性，我请你注意。</blockquote></p><p> One possibility is to regularly allocate a small percentage of your portfolio to long-dated, out of the money put options on the S&amp;P 500SPX,-1.30%.In my previous column on this subject, I reported on one such strategy that each year allocated 3.33% to an S&amp;P 500 put option that was 60% out of the money and with two years left before expiration.</p><p><blockquote>一种可能性是定期将投资组合的一小部分分配给标准普尔 500SPX 的长期现金看跌期权，-1.30%。在我之前关于这个主题的专栏中，我报道了一种这样的策略，每年将 3.33% 分配给标普500看跌期权，该期权占资金的 60%，距离到期还有两年时间。</blockquote></p><p> In this particular case, your portfolio’s “fire insurance” carries a premium of 3.33% per year. That doesn’t seem prohibitive, especially since in backtesting back to 2006 this strategy beat the S&amp;P 500 itself. So over this particular period there was no net cost to your insurance. Not bad.</p><p><blockquote>在这种特殊情况下，您投资组合的 “火灾保险 ”的年保费为 3.33%。这似乎并不令人望而却步，尤其是在 2006 年的回溯测试中，这一策略击败了标普500本身。所以在这个特定的时期，你的保险没有净成本。不错。</blockquote></p><p> It won’t always work out this well, of course, and this is not the only black swan strategy. But it gives you an idea. The anniversary of the two worst crashes in U.S. market history is an excellent time in which to consider insuring your portfolio against black swans.</p><p><blockquote>当然，效果并不总是这么好，而且这也不是唯一的黑天鹅策略。但它给了你一个想法。美国市场历史上两次最严重崩盘的周年纪念日是考虑为您的投资组合投保黑天鹅保险的绝佳时机。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market’s volatile October history means it’s time to steady yourself for a ‘black swan’ event<blockquote>10 月份股市的动荡历史意味着是时候为 “黑天鹅 ”事件稳定下来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market’s volatile October history means it’s time to steady yourself for a ‘black swan’ event<blockquote>10 月份股市的动荡历史意味着是时候为 “黑天鹅 ”事件稳定下来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-05 15:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks already are having a rough October — two trading days in. October is the most volatile month for stocks — and when stocks suffered their two worst crashes in U.S. market history.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市十月份已经经历了两个交易日的艰难时期。十月是股市最波动的月份，也是美国市场历史上两次最严重的股市崩盘的月份。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there’s a 0.06% chance that the stock market this month will experience a one-day crash as bad as 1987’s Black Monday.</p><p><blockquote>此外，本月股市有 0.06% 的概率会出现像 1987 年黑色星期一那样严重的单日崩盘。</blockquote></p><p> Those odds don’t seem like much — but they are not zero. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.94% tumbled 22.6% on Oct. 19, 1987, Black Monday. An equivalent percentage drop from its current level would take more than 7,700 points off the Dow in a single trading day.</p><p><blockquote>这些几率看起来并不多，但并非零。1987年10月19日，黑色星期一，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯，-0.94%，暴跌22.6%。从当前水平下跌同等百分比将使道琼斯指数在一个交易日内下跌超过 7,700 点。</blockquote></p><p> Few investors in the market nowadays remember the trauma of Black Monday. Those who do may reassure themselves that a similar crash couldn’t happen today, given market reforms that were instituted in the wake of the selloff.</p><p><blockquote>如今市场上很少有投资者记得黑色星期一的创伤。那些这样做的人可能会向自己保证，鉴于抛售后进行的市场改革，今天不会发生类似的崩盘。</blockquote></p><p> They are kidding themselves, according to a study conducted by Xavier Gabaix, a professor of economics and finance at Harvard. He and his-coauthors derived a formula that predicts the frequency, over long periods of time, of large daily swings in the market. Upon testing the formula against hundreds of years of stock market returns in both the U.S. and around the world, they found the formula to be impressively accurate.</p><p><blockquote>根据哈佛大学经济学和金融学教授泽维尔·加贝克斯进行的一项研究，他们是在自欺欺人。他和他的合著者推导出了一个公式，可以预测市场在很长一段时间内每日大幅波动的频率。在对美国和世界各地数百年的股市回报进行测试后，他们发现该公式非常准确。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Gabaix’s formula predicts that a 22.6% drop in the market will occur every 150 years, on average, over long periods of time. That doesn’t mean such a crash will occur every 150 years, since this predicted frequency is an average over extremely long periods. So the market could experience no such crash over a 150-year period, or experience two of them (or more).</p><p><blockquote>例如，Gabaix 的公式预测，在很长一段时间内，平均每 150 年市场就会下跌 22.6%。这并不意味着这样的坠机每 150 年就会发生一次，因为这一预测频率是极长时期内的平均值。因此，市场在 150 年内可能不会经历这样的崩盘，或者经历两次（或更多次）。</blockquote></p><p> What you can’t conclude, however, is that the odds of a crash are zero.</p><p><blockquote>然而，你不能得出的结论是，坠机的几率为零。</blockquote></p><p> Why market reforms can’t prevent a crash</p><p><blockquote>为什么市场改革无法阻止崩盘</blockquote></p><p> You might object to this conclusion on the grounds that market reforms instituted since 1987 will prevent another crash from occurring — circuit breakers, trading halts and other safeguards. But, as Gabaix has explained to me many times in interviews over the years, such reforms are powerless to prevent a crash. That’s because all markets are dominated by their largest investors, and when many of them want to get out of the market simultaneously, for whatever reason, the market will crash.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会反对这一结论，理由是自1987年以来实施的市场改革将防止另一次崩盘发生——熔断、交易暂停和其他保障措施。但是，正如Gabaix多年来在采访中多次向我解释的那样，这样的改革无力阻止崩溃。这是因为所有市场都由最大的投资者主导，当他们中的许多人出于某种原因想要同时退出市场时，市场就会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> For example, even if trading halts and other restrictions succeed in preventing these large investors from selling on U.S. exchanges, they can still sell on foreign exchanges where many U.S. stocks also trade. They can also sell short with stock index futures contracts or via the purchase of put options. You’re kidding yourself if you think these large investors will be prevented from getting out if they want to.</p><p><blockquote>例如，即使交易暂停和其他限制成功阻止了这些大型投资者在美国交易所卖出，他们仍然可以在许多美国股票也交易的外汇交易所卖出。他们还可以通过股指期货合约或购买看跌期权来卖空。如果你认为这些大投资者想退出就会被阻止，那你是在自欺欺人。</blockquote></p><p> Black swans</p><p><blockquote>黑天鹅</blockquote></p><p> Gabaix’s research underlines why it’s so important to prepare for so-called black swan events like market crashes that are sudden, awful, unpredictable and rare. Notice that, by this definition, they are unpredictable, so it’s false comfort to believe you can anticipate future black swans in time to reduce your portfolio risk and thereby sidestep a market crash. Did you foresee the COVID-induced bear market in time to avoid big losses?</p><p><blockquote>Gabaix 的研究强调了为什么为所谓的黑天鹅事件（如突发、可怕、不可预测和罕见的市场崩盘）做好准备如此重要。请注意，根据这个定义，黑天鹅是不可预测的，因此认为你可以及时预测未来的黑天鹅，从而降低投资组合风险，从而避免市场崩盘，这是一种虚假的安慰。您是否及时预见到了COVID引发的熊市以避免巨大损失？</blockquote></p><p> The investment implication is to make changes to your portfolio that will protect you from a crash, if and when it occurs. It’s like buying fire insurance on your house. Most of you will not ever have your houses burn down, but that’s not a reason forego fire insurance. I doubt any of you complain about having to purchase such insurance, since the downside risk of losing everything is sufficiently awful.</p><p><blockquote>投资的含义是对你的投资组合做出改变，这将保护你免受崩盘的影响，如果崩盘发生的话。这就像给房子买火灾保险一样。大多数人都不会让自己的房子被烧毁，但这并不是放弃火灾保险的理由。我怀疑你们中没有人会抱怨不得不购买这样的保险，因为失去一切的下行风险已经足够可怕了。</blockquote></p><p> What might be the functional equivalent of fire insurance for your stock portfolio? I discussed several different possibilities in acolumn this summer, and I direct your attention to it.</p><p><blockquote>对于您的股票投资组合来说，火灾保险的功能等价物是什么？今年夏天，我在专栏中讨论了几种不同的可能性，我请你注意。</blockquote></p><p> One possibility is to regularly allocate a small percentage of your portfolio to long-dated, out of the money put options on the S&amp;P 500SPX,-1.30%.In my previous column on this subject, I reported on one such strategy that each year allocated 3.33% to an S&amp;P 500 put option that was 60% out of the money and with two years left before expiration.</p><p><blockquote>一种可能性是定期将投资组合的一小部分分配给标准普尔 500SPX 的长期现金看跌期权，-1.30%。在我之前关于这个主题的专栏中，我报道了一种这样的策略，每年将 3.33% 分配给标普500看跌期权，该期权占资金的 60%，距离到期还有两年时间。</blockquote></p><p> In this particular case, your portfolio’s “fire insurance” carries a premium of 3.33% per year. That doesn’t seem prohibitive, especially since in backtesting back to 2006 this strategy beat the S&amp;P 500 itself. So over this particular period there was no net cost to your insurance. Not bad.</p><p><blockquote>在这种特殊情况下，您投资组合的 “火灾保险 ”的年保费为 3.33%。这似乎并不令人望而却步，尤其是在 2006 年的回溯测试中，这一策略击败了标普500本身。所以在这个特定的时期，你的保险没有净成本。不错。</blockquote></p><p> It won’t always work out this well, of course, and this is not the only black swan strategy. But it gives you an idea. The anniversary of the two worst crashes in U.S. market history is an excellent time in which to consider insuring your portfolio against black swans.</p><p><blockquote>当然，效果并不总是这么好，而且这也不是唯一的黑天鹅策略。但它给了你一个想法。美国市场历史上两次最严重崩盘的周年纪念日是考虑为您的投资组合投保黑天鹅保险的绝佳时机。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-markets-volatile-october-history-means-its-time-to-steady-yourself-for-a-black-swan-event-11633366226?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-markets-volatile-october-history-means-its-time-to-steady-yourself-for-a-black-swan-event-11633366226?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121989111","content_text":"U.S. stocks already are having a rough October — two trading days in. October is the most volatile month for stocks — and when stocks suffered their two worst crashes in U.S. market history.\nMoreover, there’s a 0.06% chance that the stock market this month will experience a one-day crash as bad as 1987’s Black Monday.\nThose odds don’t seem like much — but they are not zero. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.94% tumbled 22.6% on Oct. 19, 1987, Black Monday. An equivalent percentage drop from its current level would take more than 7,700 points off the Dow in a single trading day.\nFew investors in the market nowadays remember the trauma of Black Monday. Those who do may reassure themselves that a similar crash couldn’t happen today, given market reforms that were instituted in the wake of the selloff.\nThey are kidding themselves, according to a study conducted by Xavier Gabaix, a professor of economics and finance at Harvard. He and his-coauthors derived a formula that predicts the frequency, over long periods of time, of large daily swings in the market. Upon testing the formula against hundreds of years of stock market returns in both the U.S. and around the world, they found the formula to be impressively accurate.\nFor example, Gabaix’s formula predicts that a 22.6% drop in the market will occur every 150 years, on average, over long periods of time. That doesn’t mean such a crash will occur every 150 years, since this predicted frequency is an average over extremely long periods. So the market could experience no such crash over a 150-year period, or experience two of them (or more).\nWhat you can’t conclude, however, is that the odds of a crash are zero.\nWhy market reforms can’t prevent a crash\nYou might object to this conclusion on the grounds that market reforms instituted since 1987 will prevent another crash from occurring — circuit breakers, trading halts and other safeguards. But, as Gabaix has explained to me many times in interviews over the years, such reforms are powerless to prevent a crash. That’s because all markets are dominated by their largest investors, and when many of them want to get out of the market simultaneously, for whatever reason, the market will crash.\nFor example, even if trading halts and other restrictions succeed in preventing these large investors from selling on U.S. exchanges, they can still sell on foreign exchanges where many U.S. stocks also trade. They can also sell short with stock index futures contracts or via the purchase of put options. You’re kidding yourself if you think these large investors will be prevented from getting out if they want to.\nBlack swans\nGabaix’s research underlines why it’s so important to prepare for so-called black swan events like market crashes that are sudden, awful, unpredictable and rare. Notice that, by this definition, they are unpredictable, so it’s false comfort to believe you can anticipate future black swans in time to reduce your portfolio risk and thereby sidestep a market crash. Did you foresee the COVID-induced bear market in time to avoid big losses?\nThe investment implication is to make changes to your portfolio that will protect you from a crash, if and when it occurs. It’s like buying fire insurance on your house. Most of you will not ever have your houses burn down, but that’s not a reason forego fire insurance. I doubt any of you complain about having to purchase such insurance, since the downside risk of losing everything is sufficiently awful.\nWhat might be the functional equivalent of fire insurance for your stock portfolio? I discussed several different possibilities in acolumn this summer, and I direct your attention to it.\nOne possibility is to regularly allocate a small percentage of your portfolio to long-dated, out of the money put options on the S&P 500SPX,-1.30%.In my previous column on this subject, I reported on one such strategy that each year allocated 3.33% to an S&P 500 put option that was 60% out of the money and with two years left before expiration.\nIn this particular case, your portfolio’s “fire insurance” carries a premium of 3.33% per year. That doesn’t seem prohibitive, especially since in backtesting back to 2006 this strategy beat the S&P 500 itself. So over this particular period there was no net cost to your insurance. Not bad.\nIt won’t always work out this well, of course, and this is not the only black swan strategy. But it gives you an idea. The anniversary of the two worst crashes in U.S. market history is an excellent time in which to consider insuring your portfolio against black swans.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":816325706,"gmtCreate":1630469718505,"gmtModify":1633677820978,"author":{"id":"4090903292078160","authorId":"4090903292078160","name":"LHHZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f049bd7d3dbb30cc720a7131ea0d0b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090903292078160","idStr":"4090903292078160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816325706","repostId":"1121703403","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121703403","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630468161,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121703403?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Is the Stock Market’s Worst Month. History Says This Time Could Be Different.<blockquote>九月是股市最糟糕的月份。历史表明这一次可能会有所不同。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121703403","media":"Barron's","summary":"The stock market usually performs poorly in September. This year could be different, precisely becau","content":"<p>The stock market usually performs poorly in September. This year could be different, precisely because shares have already risen so much for the year.</p><p><blockquote>九月份股市通常表现不佳。今年可能会有所不同，正是因为今年股价已经上涨了这么多。</blockquote></p><p> September is usually one of the worst months of the year for the stock market, but shares do better at times when they have already done well. Over the years dating back to 1928, the average September return for the S&amp;P 500 has been a loss of 0.99%. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in providing gloom for investors with an average loss of 0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>九月通常是股市一年中最糟糕的月份之一，但当股票已经表现良好时，它们有时会表现得更好。自 1928 年以来，标普500 9 月份的平均回报率为 0.99%。这使得本月比 5 月份糟糕得多，5 月份的平均亏损为 0.11%，在给投资者带来悲观情绪方面排名第二。</blockquote></p><p> History indicates that September 2021 could be a good month for stocks. In the years since 1928 when the S&amp;P 500 rose by more than 13% for the first six months, the index’s median September gain was 1.4%, according to Fundstrat. Through June this year, the broad market benchmark rallied 14%.</p><p><blockquote>历史表明，2021 年 9 月可能是股市的好月份。根据 Fundstrat 的数据，自 1928 年以来，标普500指数在前六个月上涨了 13% 以上，9 月份该指数的涨幅中位数为 1.4%。截至今年 6 月，大盘基准指数上涨了 14%。</blockquote></p><p> The index rose in September in 63% of the years when the market charged ahead from January through June, while it fell during the month in 54% of the years during that overall span.</p><p><blockquote>在 1 月至 6 月市场领先的年份中，该指数有 63% 在 9 月份上涨，而在此期间，该指数有 54% 在当月下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s recent rise has bolstered hopes the index will do well for the rest of the year. Strategists at Wells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&amp;P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from the index’s current level. They say that in years in which the index sees double-digit gains in percentage terms for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to top off the year. The data goes back to 1990.</p><p><blockquote>最近股市的上涨增强了人们对该指数在今年剩余时间里表现良好的希望。富国银行（Wells Fargo）的策略师最近将标普500的目标上调至比该指数当前水平上涨 6% 以上的水平。他们表示，在该指数前八个月出现两位数百分比增长的年份，该指数还会再上涨 8%，以结束这一年。数据可以追溯到1990年。</blockquote></p><p> The index closed Thursday at 4522.68, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%.</p><p><blockquote>该指数周四收于4522.68点，8月份迄今上涨20.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Just be aware that the ride upward could be bumpy. The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With several risks on the horizon, including a corporate-tax increase that could reduce aggregate S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 5%, stocks could see a correction.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，向上的旅程可能会很颠簸。标普500今年的回调幅度没有超过 5%。由于一些风险即将到来，包括公司税增加可能导致标普500每股总收益减少 5%，股市可能会出现调整。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s head of research. Just don’t be surprised to see the market gain some more.</p><p><blockquote>“Fundstrat 研究主管汤姆-李（Tom Lee）写道：”市场'超买'，即将回调。看到市场进一步上涨，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Is the Stock Market’s Worst Month. History Says This Time Could Be Different.<blockquote>九月是股市最糟糕的月份。历史表明这一次可能会有所不同。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Is the Stock Market’s Worst Month. History Says This Time Could Be Different.<blockquote>九月是股市最糟糕的月份。历史表明这一次可能会有所不同。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-01 11:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market usually performs poorly in September. This year could be different, precisely because shares have already risen so much for the year.</p><p><blockquote>九月份股市通常表现不佳。今年可能会有所不同，正是因为今年股价已经上涨了这么多。</blockquote></p><p> September is usually one of the worst months of the year for the stock market, but shares do better at times when they have already done well. Over the years dating back to 1928, the average September return for the S&amp;P 500 has been a loss of 0.99%. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in providing gloom for investors with an average loss of 0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>九月通常是股市一年中最糟糕的月份之一，但当股票已经表现良好时，它们有时会表现得更好。自 1928 年以来，标普500 9 月份的平均回报率为 0.99%。这使得本月比 5 月份糟糕得多，5 月份的平均亏损为 0.11%，在给投资者带来悲观情绪方面排名第二。</blockquote></p><p> History indicates that September 2021 could be a good month for stocks. In the years since 1928 when the S&amp;P 500 rose by more than 13% for the first six months, the index’s median September gain was 1.4%, according to Fundstrat. Through June this year, the broad market benchmark rallied 14%.</p><p><blockquote>历史表明，2021 年 9 月可能是股市的好月份。根据 Fundstrat 的数据，自 1928 年以来，标普500指数在前六个月上涨了 13% 以上，9 月份该指数的涨幅中位数为 1.4%。截至今年 6 月，大盘基准指数上涨了 14%。</blockquote></p><p> The index rose in September in 63% of the years when the market charged ahead from January through June, while it fell during the month in 54% of the years during that overall span.</p><p><blockquote>在 1 月至 6 月市场领先的年份中，该指数有 63% 在 9 月份上涨，而在此期间，该指数有 54% 在当月下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s recent rise has bolstered hopes the index will do well for the rest of the year. Strategists at Wells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&amp;P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from the index’s current level. They say that in years in which the index sees double-digit gains in percentage terms for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to top off the year. The data goes back to 1990.</p><p><blockquote>最近股市的上涨增强了人们对该指数在今年剩余时间里表现良好的希望。富国银行（Wells Fargo）的策略师最近将标普500的目标上调至比该指数当前水平上涨 6% 以上的水平。他们表示，在该指数前八个月出现两位数百分比增长的年份，该指数还会再上涨 8%，以结束这一年。数据可以追溯到1990年。</blockquote></p><p> The index closed Thursday at 4522.68, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%.</p><p><blockquote>该指数周四收于4522.68点，8月份迄今上涨20.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Just be aware that the ride upward could be bumpy. The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With several risks on the horizon, including a corporate-tax increase that could reduce aggregate S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 5%, stocks could see a correction.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，向上的旅程可能会很颠簸。标普500今年的回调幅度没有超过 5%。由于一些风险即将到来，包括公司税增加可能导致标普500每股总收益减少 5%，股市可能会出现调整。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s head of research. Just don’t be surprised to see the market gain some more.</p><p><blockquote>“Fundstrat 研究主管汤姆-李（Tom Lee）写道：”市场'超买'，即将回调。看到市场进一步上涨，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-stocks-what-happens-next-51630442637?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-stocks-what-happens-next-51630442637?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121703403","content_text":"The stock market usually performs poorly in September. This year could be different, precisely because shares have already risen so much for the year.\nSeptember is usually one of the worst months of the year for the stock market, but shares do better at times when they have already done well. Over the years dating back to 1928, the average September return for the S&P 500 has been a loss of 0.99%. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in providing gloom for investors with an average loss of 0.11%.\nHistory indicates that September 2021 could be a good month for stocks. In the years since 1928 when the S&P 500 rose by more than 13% for the first six months, the index’s median September gain was 1.4%, according to Fundstrat. Through June this year, the broad market benchmark rallied 14%.\nThe index rose in September in 63% of the years when the market charged ahead from January through June, while it fell during the month in 54% of the years during that overall span.\nThe stock market’s recent rise has bolstered hopes the index will do well for the rest of the year. Strategists at Wells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from the index’s current level. They say that in years in which the index sees double-digit gains in percentage terms for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to top off the year. The data goes back to 1990.\nThe index closed Thursday at 4522.68, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%.\nJust be aware that the ride upward could be bumpy. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With several risks on the horizon, including a corporate-tax increase that could reduce aggregate S&P 500 earnings per share by 5%, stocks could see a correction.\n“Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s head of research. Just don’t be surprised to see the market gain some more.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810638833,"gmtCreate":1629969847522,"gmtModify":1631892434599,"author":{"id":"4090903292078160","authorId":"4090903292078160","name":"LHHZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f049bd7d3dbb30cc720a7131ea0d0b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090903292078160","idStr":"4090903292078160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> I believe it will still be a dip tonight? Any pro able to give advise?","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> I believe it will still be a dip tonight? Any pro able to give advise?","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ I believe it will still be a dip tonight? Any pro able to give advise?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810638833","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274702625278","authorId":"3479274702625278","name":"老夫追涨杀跌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d8be38e6bbbfa27d16721be9a4e59b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274702625278","idStr":"3479274702625278"},"content":"我前天买了一点点，难道现在又要还回去了吗？忧桑。","text":"我前天买了一点点，难道现在又要还回去了吗？忧桑。","html":"我前天买了一点点，难道现在又要还回去了吗？忧桑。"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000221","authorId":"9000000000000221","name":"搞钱树","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82edc4968feb7c0c481f5ad38d9a498b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000221","idStr":"9000000000000221"},"content":"我是阿里的重度用户呀，对他都有执念了，总觉得他会涨，这是不是不对？","text":"我是阿里的重度用户呀，对他都有执念了，总觉得他会涨，这是不是不对？","html":"我是阿里的重度用户呀，对他都有执念了，总觉得他会涨，这是不是不对？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}