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PYBG
PYBG
·
2021-10-21
Awesome
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PYBG
PYBG
·
2021-10-21
Fiverr worth investing
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PYBG
PYBG
·
2021-10-16
Alibaba is worth more than Sea
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PYBG
PYBG
·
2021-10-16
Agree
Apple: International Opportunity Is Huge<blockquote>苹果:国际机遇巨大</blockquote>
Summary Apple is trading at lower multiples than its peers and the Nasdaq. Apple is making huge str
Apple: International Opportunity Is Huge<blockquote>苹果:国际机遇巨大</blockquote>
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PYBG
PYBG
·
2021-10-16
Zynga.. interesting
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PYBG
PYBG
·
2021-10-15
Apple is an awesome company..
Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>
Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales
Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>
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PYBG
PYBG
·
2021-10-12
Thot China govt clamped down on pte education?
Chinese education stocks rose in morning trading<blockquote>中国教育股早盘上涨</blockquote>
Chinese education stocks rose in morning trading.Gaotu Techdu,TAL Education and New Oriental Educati
Chinese education stocks rose in morning trading<blockquote>中国教育股早盘上涨</blockquote>
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PYBG
PYBG
·
2021-10-12
Volatility = opportunity
The Stock Market Survived a Scary Week. Why This Week Could Be Scarier.<blockquote>股市度过了可怕的一周。为什么这周会更可怕。</blockquote>
The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survi
The Stock Market Survived a Scary Week. Why This Week Could Be Scarier.<blockquote>股市度过了可怕的一周。为什么这周会更可怕。</blockquote>
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PYBG
PYBG
·
2021-09-11
Noted
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PYBG
PYBG
·
2021-09-11
Wow, scary
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worth investing","listText":"Fiverr worth investing","text":"Fiverr worth investing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853077971","repostId":"2176516480","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824521895,"gmtCreate":1634340730235,"gmtModify":1634340730358,"author":{"id":"4091333355237140","authorId":"4091333355237140","name":"PYBG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffceefb16436db08633bced1bf654393","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091333355237140","authorIdStr":"4091333355237140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba is worth more than Sea","listText":"Alibaba is worth more than Sea","text":"Alibaba is worth more than Sea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824521895","repostId":"2175112192","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824214951,"gmtCreate":1634314772912,"gmtModify":1634314773038,"author":{"id":"4091333355237140","authorId":"4091333355237140","name":"PYBG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffceefb16436db08633bced1bf654393","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091333355237140","authorIdStr":"4091333355237140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824214951","repostId":"1163053361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163053361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634310263,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163053361?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: International Opportunity Is Huge<blockquote>苹果:国际机遇巨大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163053361","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is trading at lower multiples than its peers and the Nasdaq.\nApple is making huge str","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple is trading at lower multiples than its peers and the Nasdaq.</li> <li>Apple is making huge strides in the European as well as international markets.</li> <li>As iPhones sell, so will AirPods, Apple Watches, and Apple services such as Music and Arcade.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果的市盈率低于同行和纳斯达克。</li><li>苹果在欧洲和国际市场上都取得了巨大的进步。</li><li>随着iPhone的销售,AirPods、苹果手表以及音乐和街机等苹果服务也将随之销售。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) is the largest company in the world by market cap. While large-cap stocks like Apple are usually close to fair value, Apple makes a compelling case. Arguably the best investor of all time, Warren Buffet has invested over 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A)(BRK.B) portfolio in Apple stock. So I decided that there must be some value proposition here. After a throughout look, I came to the same conclusion as Warren Buffet. Apple stock is an excellent buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)是全球市值最大的公司。虽然像苹果这样的大盘股通常接近公允价值,但苹果提出了令人信服的理由。沃伦·巴菲特可以说是有史以来最好的投资者,他将伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(BRK.A)(BRK.B)投资组合的40%以上投资于苹果股票。所以我决定这里一定有一些价值主张。看了一遍之后,我得出了和沃伦·巴菲特一样的结论。苹果股票非常值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> Apple's potential on a global scale has not been adequately factored into the share price.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在全球范围内的潜力尚未充分纳入股价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Current Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当前估值</b></blockquote></p><p> To understand if something is undervalued, we first need to understand its current valuation. To do so, I will briefly compare it to some similar stocks in both PE and P/FCF.</p><p><blockquote>要了解某样东西是否被低估,我们首先需要了解它当前的估值。为此,我将将其与PE和P/FCF方面的一些类似股票进行简要比较。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ac38cd59cd1890bbbab0bc6c0dee9d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, Apple is valued at lower PE and P/FCF multiples than similar companies Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL). It is also trading at a lower PE ratio than the Nasdaq index (29.25).</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的,苹果的市盈率和市盈率/自由现金流倍数低于类似公司微软(MSFT)和Alphabet(GOOGL)。它的市盈率也低于纳斯达克指数(29.25)。</blockquote></p><p> This establishes that Apple is not being valued at a premium to reflect the massive opportunity they have with international expansion.</p><p><blockquote>这表明苹果的估值并没有反映出他们在国际扩张中拥有的巨大机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple In The US</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国的苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are like me and from America, it may seem like everyone that wants an iPhone has one. There is a good chance you are even reading this article on Apple's signature OLED screen.</p><p><blockquote>如果你像我一样来自美国,似乎每个想要iPhone的人都有一部。很有可能你正在苹果标志性的有机发光二极管屏幕上阅读这篇文章。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e50a9091d291ea4b8efb3d37d00ad68\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's market share in the US has been growing by low single-digit percentages since 2015 and currently has a US market share of just under 50% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>自2015年以来,苹果在美国的市场份额一直以低个位数百分比增长,目前2021年美国市场份额略低于50%。</blockquote></p><p> I see no real reason that this will change significantly. Like I mentioned above, most people that want an iPhone already own one. When dealing with such a high market share, it is hard to grow, at least substantially.</p><p><blockquote>我看不出这种情况会发生重大变化的真正原因。就像我上面提到的,大多数想要iPhone的人已经拥有了一部。在处理如此高的市场份额时,很难增长,至少很难大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> While I will not discuss this point in-depth, it is worth noting that in 2020, only about 50% of their revenue came from iPhone, and there is considerable room to grow in their accessories and wearables, even in the US.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我不会深入讨论这一点,但值得注意的是,在2020年,他们只有约50%的收入来自iPhone,即使在美国,他们的配件和可穿戴设备也有相当大的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The International Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国际市场</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where I see a massive opportunity for Apple. They are already on their way to growing their global market share.</p><p><blockquote>这是我看到苹果巨大机会的地方。他们已经在扩大全球市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/458c0f8e1a5cec6bdd874c1d7f9de7df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statcounter</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Statcounter</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the last 5 years, AAPL's global market share has gone from the high teens/low twenties to over 25%. Apple is also close to overtaking Samsung as the worldwide market share leader, and at current rates, it appears the overtake will happen sometime in the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的5年里,AAPL的全球市场份额已经从十几岁/二十多岁上升到25%以上。苹果也接近超越三星成为全球市场份额的领导者,按照目前的速度,这种超越似乎将在未来12个月的某个时候发生。</blockquote></p><p> The upward trend is seen again in Europe. Here is AAPL's European market share over the past 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲再次出现上升趋势。以下是AAPL过去5年的欧洲市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581ba5b6950f54cb812ad7a9d0e4960e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statcounter</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Statcounter</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In this case, Apple just recently took over Samsung as the leading European smartphone vendor. With a population of around 741 million people, nearly 2x the population of the United States, taking the majority share of the smartphone market in Europe is huge.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下,苹果最近刚刚取代三星成为欧洲领先的智能手机供应商。欧洲拥有约7.41亿人口,几乎是美国人口的2倍,占据欧洲智能手机市场的大部分份额是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does that mean?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那是什么意思?</b></blockquote></p><p> This is just the beginning, at least from a sales standpoint. Despite controlling the majority share in one of the largest continents, Apple only generated about 1/4 of its total revenue from Europe.</p><p><blockquote>这只是一个开始,至少从销售的角度来看是这样。尽管控制着最大大陆之一的大部分份额,但苹果仅从欧洲获得了约1/4的总收入。</blockquote></p><p> One of the things that makes Apple such a strong company is that their iPhones are essentially a \"gateway product.\" Once you have an iPhone, you are compelled to purchase AirPods and an Apple Watch as physical accessories. Apple also offers iCloud photo storage, Apple Music, Apple TV, and Apple Arcade, to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>苹果成为一家如此强大的公司的原因之一是,他们的iPhone本质上是一种“门户产品”。一旦你有了iPhone,你就被迫购买AirPods和苹果手表作为物理配件。苹果还提供iCloud照片存储、苹果音乐、苹果电视和苹果街机等等。</blockquote></p><p> The proliferation of the iPhone on a global scale opens the door for Apple with its massive product line. Investors should look behind the numbers and realize the true scope of the opportunity that lies within growing iPhone sales.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone在全球范围内的普及为苹果庞大的产品线打开了大门。投资者应该关注数字背后,认识到iPhone销量增长中蕴藏的真正机会范围。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple's relative undervaluation compared to competitors, as well as massive strides in international markets, makes it an appealing investment. As iPhone sales continue to grow, accessories will be quick to follow. Apple is past the stages where you will see 100% growth in a relatively short timeline. This is a stock that you buy and hold for years, and if you are smart, sell covered calls along the way.</p><p><blockquote>与竞争对手相比,苹果的估值相对被低估,以及在国际市场上的巨大进步,使其成为一项有吸引力的投资。随着iPhone销量的持续增长,配件也会迅速跟进。苹果已经过了在相对较短的时间内看到100%增长的阶段。这是一只您购买并持有多年的股票,如果您聪明的话,可以在此过程中出售担保评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: International Opportunity Is Huge<blockquote>苹果:国际机遇巨大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: International Opportunity Is Huge<blockquote>苹果:国际机遇巨大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-15 23:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple is trading at lower multiples than its peers and the Nasdaq.</li> <li>Apple is making huge strides in the European as well as international markets.</li> <li>As iPhones sell, so will AirPods, Apple Watches, and Apple services such as Music and Arcade.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果的市盈率低于同行和纳斯达克。</li><li>苹果在欧洲和国际市场上都取得了巨大的进步。</li><li>随着iPhone的销售,AirPods、苹果手表以及音乐和街机等苹果服务也将随之销售。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) is the largest company in the world by market cap. While large-cap stocks like Apple are usually close to fair value, Apple makes a compelling case. Arguably the best investor of all time, Warren Buffet has invested over 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A)(BRK.B) portfolio in Apple stock. So I decided that there must be some value proposition here. After a throughout look, I came to the same conclusion as Warren Buffet. Apple stock is an excellent buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)是全球市值最大的公司。虽然像苹果这样的大盘股通常接近公允价值,但苹果提出了令人信服的理由。沃伦·巴菲特可以说是有史以来最好的投资者,他将伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(BRK.A)(BRK.B)投资组合的40%以上投资于苹果股票。所以我决定这里一定有一些价值主张。看了一遍之后,我得出了和沃伦·巴菲特一样的结论。苹果股票非常值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> Apple's potential on a global scale has not been adequately factored into the share price.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在全球范围内的潜力尚未充分纳入股价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Current Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当前估值</b></blockquote></p><p> To understand if something is undervalued, we first need to understand its current valuation. To do so, I will briefly compare it to some similar stocks in both PE and P/FCF.</p><p><blockquote>要了解某样东西是否被低估,我们首先需要了解它当前的估值。为此,我将将其与PE和P/FCF方面的一些类似股票进行简要比较。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ac38cd59cd1890bbbab0bc6c0dee9d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, Apple is valued at lower PE and P/FCF multiples than similar companies Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL). It is also trading at a lower PE ratio than the Nasdaq index (29.25).</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的,苹果的市盈率和市盈率/自由现金流倍数低于类似公司微软(MSFT)和Alphabet(GOOGL)。它的市盈率也低于纳斯达克指数(29.25)。</blockquote></p><p> This establishes that Apple is not being valued at a premium to reflect the massive opportunity they have with international expansion.</p><p><blockquote>这表明苹果的估值并没有反映出他们在国际扩张中拥有的巨大机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple In The US</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国的苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are like me and from America, it may seem like everyone that wants an iPhone has one. There is a good chance you are even reading this article on Apple's signature OLED screen.</p><p><blockquote>如果你像我一样来自美国,似乎每个想要iPhone的人都有一部。很有可能你正在苹果标志性的有机发光二极管屏幕上阅读这篇文章。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e50a9091d291ea4b8efb3d37d00ad68\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's market share in the US has been growing by low single-digit percentages since 2015 and currently has a US market share of just under 50% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>自2015年以来,苹果在美国的市场份额一直以低个位数百分比增长,目前2021年美国市场份额略低于50%。</blockquote></p><p> I see no real reason that this will change significantly. Like I mentioned above, most people that want an iPhone already own one. When dealing with such a high market share, it is hard to grow, at least substantially.</p><p><blockquote>我看不出这种情况会发生重大变化的真正原因。就像我上面提到的,大多数想要iPhone的人已经拥有了一部。在处理如此高的市场份额时,很难增长,至少很难大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> While I will not discuss this point in-depth, it is worth noting that in 2020, only about 50% of their revenue came from iPhone, and there is considerable room to grow in their accessories and wearables, even in the US.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我不会深入讨论这一点,但值得注意的是,在2020年,他们只有约50%的收入来自iPhone,即使在美国,他们的配件和可穿戴设备也有相当大的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The International Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国际市场</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where I see a massive opportunity for Apple. They are already on their way to growing their global market share.</p><p><blockquote>这是我看到苹果巨大机会的地方。他们已经在扩大全球市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/458c0f8e1a5cec6bdd874c1d7f9de7df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statcounter</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Statcounter</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the last 5 years, AAPL's global market share has gone from the high teens/low twenties to over 25%. Apple is also close to overtaking Samsung as the worldwide market share leader, and at current rates, it appears the overtake will happen sometime in the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的5年里,AAPL的全球市场份额已经从十几岁/二十多岁上升到25%以上。苹果也接近超越三星成为全球市场份额的领导者,按照目前的速度,这种超越似乎将在未来12个月的某个时候发生。</blockquote></p><p> The upward trend is seen again in Europe. Here is AAPL's European market share over the past 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲再次出现上升趋势。以下是AAPL过去5年的欧洲市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581ba5b6950f54cb812ad7a9d0e4960e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statcounter</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Statcounter</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In this case, Apple just recently took over Samsung as the leading European smartphone vendor. With a population of around 741 million people, nearly 2x the population of the United States, taking the majority share of the smartphone market in Europe is huge.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下,苹果最近刚刚取代三星成为欧洲领先的智能手机供应商。欧洲拥有约7.41亿人口,几乎是美国人口的2倍,占据欧洲智能手机市场的大部分份额是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does that mean?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那是什么意思?</b></blockquote></p><p> This is just the beginning, at least from a sales standpoint. Despite controlling the majority share in one of the largest continents, Apple only generated about 1/4 of its total revenue from Europe.</p><p><blockquote>这只是一个开始,至少从销售的角度来看是这样。尽管控制着最大大陆之一的大部分份额,但苹果仅从欧洲获得了约1/4的总收入。</blockquote></p><p> One of the things that makes Apple such a strong company is that their iPhones are essentially a \"gateway product.\" Once you have an iPhone, you are compelled to purchase AirPods and an Apple Watch as physical accessories. Apple also offers iCloud photo storage, Apple Music, Apple TV, and Apple Arcade, to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>苹果成为一家如此强大的公司的原因之一是,他们的iPhone本质上是一种“门户产品”。一旦你有了iPhone,你就被迫购买AirPods和苹果手表作为物理配件。苹果还提供iCloud照片存储、苹果音乐、苹果电视和苹果街机等等。</blockquote></p><p> The proliferation of the iPhone on a global scale opens the door for Apple with its massive product line. Investors should look behind the numbers and realize the true scope of the opportunity that lies within growing iPhone sales.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone在全球范围内的普及为苹果庞大的产品线打开了大门。投资者应该关注数字背后,认识到iPhone销量增长中蕴藏的真正机会范围。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple's relative undervaluation compared to competitors, as well as massive strides in international markets, makes it an appealing investment. As iPhone sales continue to grow, accessories will be quick to follow. Apple is past the stages where you will see 100% growth in a relatively short timeline. This is a stock that you buy and hold for years, and if you are smart, sell covered calls along the way.</p><p><blockquote>与竞争对手相比,苹果的估值相对被低估,以及在国际市场上的巨大进步,使其成为一项有吸引力的投资。随着iPhone销量的持续增长,配件也会迅速跟进。苹果已经过了在相对较短的时间内看到100%增长的阶段。这是一只您购买并持有多年的股票,如果您聪明的话,可以在此过程中出售担保评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459836-apple-international-opportunity-is-huge\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459836-apple-international-opportunity-is-huge","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163053361","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is trading at lower multiples than its peers and the Nasdaq.\nApple is making huge strides in the European as well as international markets.\nAs iPhones sell, so will AirPods, Apple Watches, and Apple services such as Music and Arcade.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThesis\nApple (AAPL) is the largest company in the world by market cap. While large-cap stocks like Apple are usually close to fair value, Apple makes a compelling case. Arguably the best investor of all time, Warren Buffet has invested over 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A)(BRK.B) portfolio in Apple stock. So I decided that there must be some value proposition here. After a throughout look, I came to the same conclusion as Warren Buffet. Apple stock is an excellent buy.\nApple's potential on a global scale has not been adequately factored into the share price.\nCurrent Valuation\nTo understand if something is undervalued, we first need to understand its current valuation. To do so, I will briefly compare it to some similar stocks in both PE and P/FCF.\nData by YCharts\nAs you can see, Apple is valued at lower PE and P/FCF multiples than similar companies Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL). It is also trading at a lower PE ratio than the Nasdaq index (29.25).\nThis establishes that Apple is not being valued at a premium to reflect the massive opportunity they have with international expansion.\nApple In The US\nIf you are like me and from America, it may seem like everyone that wants an iPhone has one. There is a good chance you are even reading this article on Apple's signature OLED screen.\nSource: Statista\nApple's market share in the US has been growing by low single-digit percentages since 2015 and currently has a US market share of just under 50% in 2021.\nI see no real reason that this will change significantly. Like I mentioned above, most people that want an iPhone already own one. When dealing with such a high market share, it is hard to grow, at least substantially.\nWhile I will not discuss this point in-depth, it is worth noting that in 2020, only about 50% of their revenue came from iPhone, and there is considerable room to grow in their accessories and wearables, even in the US.\nThe International Market\nThis is where I see a massive opportunity for Apple. They are already on their way to growing their global market share.\nSource: Statcounter\nOver the last 5 years, AAPL's global market share has gone from the high teens/low twenties to over 25%. Apple is also close to overtaking Samsung as the worldwide market share leader, and at current rates, it appears the overtake will happen sometime in the next twelve months.\nThe upward trend is seen again in Europe. Here is AAPL's European market share over the past 5 years.\nSource: Statcounter\nIn this case, Apple just recently took over Samsung as the leading European smartphone vendor. With a population of around 741 million people, nearly 2x the population of the United States, taking the majority share of the smartphone market in Europe is huge.\nWhat does that mean?\nThis is just the beginning, at least from a sales standpoint. Despite controlling the majority share in one of the largest continents, Apple only generated about 1/4 of its total revenue from Europe.\nOne of the things that makes Apple such a strong company is that their iPhones are essentially a \"gateway product.\" Once you have an iPhone, you are compelled to purchase AirPods and an Apple Watch as physical accessories. Apple also offers iCloud photo storage, Apple Music, Apple TV, and Apple Arcade, to name a few.\nThe proliferation of the iPhone on a global scale opens the door for Apple with its massive product line. Investors should look behind the numbers and realize the true scope of the opportunity that lies within growing iPhone sales.\nConclusion\nApple's relative undervaluation compared to competitors, as well as massive strides in international markets, makes it an appealing investment. As iPhone sales continue to grow, accessories will be quick to follow. Apple is past the stages where you will see 100% growth in a relatively short timeline. This is a stock that you buy and hold for years, and if you are smart, sell covered calls along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824212226,"gmtCreate":1634314656228,"gmtModify":1634314656336,"author":{"id":"4091333355237140","authorId":"4091333355237140","name":"PYBG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffceefb16436db08633bced1bf654393","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091333355237140","authorIdStr":"4091333355237140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zynga.. interesting","listText":"Zynga.. interesting","text":"Zynga.. interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824212226","repostId":"2175117376","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825289479,"gmtCreate":1634227743007,"gmtModify":1634227743102,"author":{"id":"4091333355237140","authorId":"4091333355237140","name":"PYBG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffceefb16436db08633bced1bf654393","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091333355237140","authorIdStr":"4091333355237140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple is an awesome company..","listText":"Apple is an awesome company..","text":"Apple is an awesome company..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825289479","repostId":"1176037392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176037392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634217624,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176037392?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 21:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176037392","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales","content":"<p>Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.</p><p><blockquote>由于有报道称零部件短缺可能影响iPhone 13的销售,苹果股价遭受重创。这位苹果专家认为,长期投资者不必太担心。</blockquote></p><p> The recent news has not been very favorable for Apple and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.</p><p><blockquote>最近的消息对苹果及其股票来说并不是很有利。据彭博社报道,iPhone 13正面临供应链问题。零部件短缺可能导致今年苹果设备产量下降1000万台。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布后,苹果股价并未暴跌,但再次跌破每股140美元——这是自2021年7月上旬以来从未见过的水平。然而,这位苹果专家认为,长期投资者不应该担心最近涉及iPhone的事态发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c2295e5c2fd9f6f41f8a86c0a4c8ce\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone 13 new model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1:iPhone 13新款。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>This seems familiar…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这似乎很熟悉……</b></blockquote></p><p> First, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?</p><p><blockquote>首先,读者必须了解苹果股票投资者和交易者有不同类型。许多人购买股票是希望获得短期收益,而另一些人则长期押注股票。事实上,短线交易者可能有充分的理由感到担忧。如果苹果下个季度的iPhone销量未达到预期,并且该股因此做出负面反应怎么办?</blockquote></p><p> But long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>但长期持有者可能会进一步关注苹果未来的业务基本面。有足够多的报道表明,对iPhone 13的需求一直很高,可能甚至比对已经成功的iPhone 12的需求还要好。</blockquote></p><p> If enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>如果对一种产品有足够的需求,有理由认为暂时的供应链问题只会导致销售从一个时期转移到下一个时期。这正是2020年发生的情况,当时COVID-19危机导致iPhone 12在假期晚些时候亮相并推出。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了2019财年和2020财年以及今年上半年的iPhone销量增长情况。请注意,由于生产延迟,2019年痛苦的收入下降似乎创造了去年第四财季未得到满足的被压抑需求。当这些问题最终得到解决时,2021财年的收入猛增。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f351ccb2a56f417bb16d8f0246fcc4\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2:2019-2021年iPhone增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Average iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.</p><p><blockquote>从2020财年开始到现在,iPhone的平均销量增长了14%,尽管每个季度的收入都非常不稳定。同期,尽管去年存在供应链问题,苹果股价仍上涨了90%。</blockquote></p><p> Could the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.</p><p><blockquote>当前的零部件短缺会导致收入再次在日历上发生变化吗?我认为这是合理的,如果不太可能的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple is a good place to hide</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果是个藏身的好地方</b></blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是,所谓的生产延误并不是苹果特有的问题。今年从大流行中复苏的零部件短缺已被充分记录,并且似乎正在全面影响消费技术供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.</p><p><blockquote>当然,投资者可以选择根本不投资科技行业,因为担心随着全球经济继续反弹,整个行业的表现将不佳。但如果要在该领域投入资金,我认为苹果是一个比平均水平更安全的选择,因为它拥有一流的供应链管理。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, I explained in more detail that Apple has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.</p><p><blockquote>去年,我更详细地解释了苹果在首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)的领导下已成为“库存管理之王”,蒂姆·库克也是库比蒂诺公司的前首席运营官。因此,如果我押注一家公司能很好地处理供应链问题,它可能是最具购买力且在管理库存方面拥有良好记录的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 21:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.</p><p><blockquote>由于有报道称零部件短缺可能影响iPhone 13的销售,苹果股价遭受重创。这位苹果专家认为,长期投资者不必太担心。</blockquote></p><p> The recent news has not been very favorable for Apple and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.</p><p><blockquote>最近的消息对苹果及其股票来说并不是很有利。据彭博社报道,iPhone 13正面临供应链问题。零部件短缺可能导致今年苹果设备产量下降1000万台。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布后,苹果股价并未暴跌,但再次跌破每股140美元——这是自2021年7月上旬以来从未见过的水平。然而,这位苹果专家认为,长期投资者不应该担心最近涉及iPhone的事态发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c2295e5c2fd9f6f41f8a86c0a4c8ce\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone 13 new model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1:iPhone 13新款。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>This seems familiar…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这似乎很熟悉……</b></blockquote></p><p> First, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?</p><p><blockquote>首先,读者必须了解苹果股票投资者和交易者有不同类型。许多人购买股票是希望获得短期收益,而另一些人则长期押注股票。事实上,短线交易者可能有充分的理由感到担忧。如果苹果下个季度的iPhone销量未达到预期,并且该股因此做出负面反应怎么办?</blockquote></p><p> But long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>但长期持有者可能会进一步关注苹果未来的业务基本面。有足够多的报道表明,对iPhone 13的需求一直很高,可能甚至比对已经成功的iPhone 12的需求还要好。</blockquote></p><p> If enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>如果对一种产品有足够的需求,有理由认为暂时的供应链问题只会导致销售从一个时期转移到下一个时期。这正是2020年发生的情况,当时COVID-19危机导致iPhone 12在假期晚些时候亮相并推出。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了2019财年和2020财年以及今年上半年的iPhone销量增长情况。请注意,由于生产延迟,2019年痛苦的收入下降似乎创造了去年第四财季未得到满足的被压抑需求。当这些问题最终得到解决时,2021财年的收入猛增。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f351ccb2a56f417bb16d8f0246fcc4\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2:2019-2021年iPhone增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Average iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.</p><p><blockquote>从2020财年开始到现在,iPhone的平均销量增长了14%,尽管每个季度的收入都非常不稳定。同期,尽管去年存在供应链问题,苹果股价仍上涨了90%。</blockquote></p><p> Could the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.</p><p><blockquote>当前的零部件短缺会导致收入再次在日历上发生变化吗?我认为这是合理的,如果不太可能的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple is a good place to hide</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果是个藏身的好地方</b></blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是,所谓的生产延误并不是苹果特有的问题。今年从大流行中复苏的零部件短缺已被充分记录,并且似乎正在全面影响消费技术供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.</p><p><blockquote>当然,投资者可以选择根本不投资科技行业,因为担心随着全球经济继续反弹,整个行业的表现将不佳。但如果要在该领域投入资金,我认为苹果是一个比平均水平更安全的选择,因为它拥有一流的供应链管理。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, I explained in more detail that Apple has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.</p><p><blockquote>去年,我更详细地解释了苹果在首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)的领导下已成为“库存管理之王”,蒂姆·库克也是库比蒂诺公司的前首席运营官。因此,如果我押注一家公司能很好地处理供应链问题,它可能是最具购买力且在管理库存方面拥有良好记录的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/why-iphone-supply-hiccup-is-not-a-problem-for-apple-stock\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/why-iphone-supply-hiccup-is-not-a-problem-for-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176037392","content_text":"Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.\nThe recent news has not been very favorable for Apple and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.\nApple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.\nFigure 1: iPhone 13 new model.\nThis seems familiar…\nFirst, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?\nBut long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.\nIf enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.\nThe chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.\nFigure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.\nAverage iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.\nCould the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.\nApple is a good place to hide\nTo be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.\nOf course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.\nLast year, I explained in more detail that Apple has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826301143,"gmtCreate":1633971481013,"gmtModify":1634003520778,"author":{"id":"4091333355237140","authorId":"4091333355237140","name":"PYBG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffceefb16436db08633bced1bf654393","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091333355237140","authorIdStr":"4091333355237140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thot China govt clamped down on pte education?","listText":"Thot China govt clamped down on pte education?","text":"Thot China govt clamped down on pte education?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826301143","repostId":"1158715786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158715786","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633964041,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158715786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese education stocks rose in morning trading<blockquote>中国教育股早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158715786","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Chinese education stocks rose in morning trading.Gaotu Techdu,TAL Education and New Oriental Educati","content":"<p>Chinese education stocks rose in morning trading.Gaotu Techdu,TAL Education and New Oriental Education & Technology climbed between 4% and 10%.</p><p><blockquote>中国教育股早盘上涨。高途科技、好未来教育和新东方教育科技涨幅在4%至10%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc282b12ceea2b54246496c92b0a8f\" tg-width=\"403\" tg-height=\"176\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese education stocks rose in morning trading<blockquote>中国教育股早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese education stocks rose in morning trading<blockquote>中国教育股早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-11 22:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chinese education stocks rose in morning trading.Gaotu Techdu,TAL Education and New Oriental Education & Technology climbed between 4% and 10%.</p><p><blockquote>中国教育股早盘上涨。高途科技、好未来教育和新东方教育科技涨幅在4%至10%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc282b12ceea2b54246496c92b0a8f\" tg-width=\"403\" tg-height=\"176\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方","GOTU":"高途","TAL":"好未来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158715786","content_text":"Chinese education stocks rose in morning trading.Gaotu Techdu,TAL Education and New Oriental Education & Technology climbed between 4% and 10%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EDU":0.9,"TAL":0.9,"GOTU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826303533,"gmtCreate":1633971329493,"gmtModify":1633971329493,"author":{"id":"4091333355237140","authorId":"4091333355237140","name":"PYBG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffceefb16436db08633bced1bf654393","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091333355237140","authorIdStr":"4091333355237140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Volatility = opportunity","listText":"Volatility = opportunity","text":"Volatility = opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826303533","repostId":"1132567957","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132567957","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633937986,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132567957?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 15:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Survived a Scary Week. Why This Week Could Be Scarier.<blockquote>股市度过了可怕的一周。为什么这周会更可怕。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132567957","media":"Barrons","summary":"The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survi","content":"<p>The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survive earnings season?</p><p><blockquote>股市在过去一周的债务上限之争和油价飙升中幸存下来。它能挺过财报季吗?</blockquote></p><p> The week began with everything falling apart—energy prices were skyrocketing and the U.S. appeared on the verge of default. It ended with lower oil prices, thanks to Vladimir Putin, of all people, and the debt-ceiling being pushed off to December. It even brushed off what looked to be a surprisingly weak jobs report to—wait for it—finish higher.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始,一切都分崩离析——能源价格飙升,美国似乎濒临违约。多亏了弗拉基米尔·普京,油价下跌,债务上限被推迟到12月。它甚至无视了看似令人惊讶的疲软就业报告——等着瞧吧——收盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% this past week, while the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite squeaked out a 0.1% advance. For the Dow, it was just the second rise in the past six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上周上涨1.2%,标准普尔500指数上涨0.8%,纳斯达克综合指数小幅上涨0.1%。对于道琼斯指数来说,这只是过去六周内的第二次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But let’s admit something right here, right now. None of this is normal—not the politics, and certainly not the economic data. September’s jobs report was a disaster—but not because of the disappointing headline number. Yes, the U.S. added just 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 500,000, and that’s the kind of miss that would suggest a slowing economy. The number, though, was close to meaningless, given the seasonal adjustments—which may have skewed it lower—and by comparison to the household survey, which showed more than 500,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. Try making an investment decision off that.</p><p><blockquote>但是让我们现在就承认一些事情。这些都不正常——政治不正常,经济数据当然也不正常。九月份的就业报告是一场灾难——但并不是因为令人失望的头条数据。是的,美国9月份仅增加了194,000个就业岗位,远低于预期的500,000个,这种失误表明经济正在放缓。不过,考虑到季节性调整(这可能会使其偏低),并且与家庭调查相比,这个数字几乎毫无意义。家庭调查显示,随着失业率降至4.8%,新增就业岗位超过50万个。尝试以此为基础做出投资决定。</blockquote></p><p> “Investors should be careful to temper their reactions to the non-farm payroll report, which is quite volatile and typically undergoes material revisions in the months following the initial release,” writes Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>Glenmede私人财富首席投资官贾森·普莱德(Jason Pride)写道:“投资者应该小心缓和对非农就业报告的反应,该报告相当不稳定,通常会在首次发布后的几个月内进行重大修订。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market tried to make the best of it. While bonds initially saw a bit of buying, pushing yields down, the 10-year Treasury closed the week with a yield of 1.6%, its highest since June, defying what appeared to be bad news. The Dow finished Friday down 0.03%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq declined 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,市场还是试图充分利用它。虽然债券最初出现了一些买盘,压低了收益率,但10年期国债收益率本周收于1.6%,为6月份以来的最高水平,无视了看似坏消息的影响。道琼斯指数周五收盘下跌0.03%,标普500下跌0.2%,纳斯达克下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That the stock market would do virtually nothing makes sense given the complexity of the employment picture. Job openings remain high, but the number of people leaving the workforce only seems to increase. Even rising pay—average hourly wages rose 4.6%—hasn’t been able to bring workers back. And that means that the labor market, despite an unemployment rate well above prepandemic levels of 3.5%, might actually be much tighter than it looks.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到就业形势的复杂性,股市几乎无所作为是有道理的。职位空缺仍然很高,但离开劳动力市场的人数似乎只会增加。即使工资上涨——平均时薪上涨4.6%——也没能让工人回来。这意味着,尽管失业率远高于疫情前3.5%的水平,但劳动力市场实际上可能比看起来要紧张得多。</blockquote></p><p> The reality of rising costs, from labor and raw materials, has begun worrying investors. Just 25% of investors expect corporate profit margins to expand over the next six to 12 months, says an RBC Capital Markets survey, down from 39% in June. Some 36% now expect margins to contract, up from 19%. The respondents are also becoming more pessimistic about the market—28% now describe themselves as bearish, up from 14%.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力和原材料成本上升的现实已经开始让投资者感到担忧。加拿大皇家银行资本市场的一项调查显示,只有25%的投资者预计企业利润率将在未来6至12个月内扩大,低于6月份的39%。目前约36%的人预计利润率将收缩,高于19%。受访者对市场也变得更加悲观——28%的人现在表示自己看跌,高于14%。</blockquote></p><p> The worst may not be over yet, writes Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “The results of our own survey support our belief that the unwind in institutional investor sentiment that’s been underway hasn’t fully played out yet, which may contribute to further volatility in the broader U.S. equity market in the near term,” she explains.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)写道,最糟糕的时期可能还没有结束。她解释说:“我们自己的调查结果支持了我们的信念,即机构投资者情绪的缓和尚未完全显现,这可能会导致短期内美国股市进一步波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a first read on those fears when earnings season starts this coming week. The banks get all the attention, and for good reason. Reports from JPMorgan Chase (ticker: JPM),Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C) should help give the market a read on the strength of the U.S. economy, the demand for loans, and even consumer spending. (Financial-sector profits are expected to grow by 18%.) But other companies will give investors their own read on costs and margins.Fastenal (FAST), a distributor of industrial fasteners, is expected to report a profit of 42 cents a share on Monday, though it was downgraded by Wells Fargo on Friday over concerns about rising wages and freight costs.Delta Air Lines (DAL) should give a read on wage pressures, as well as the demand for travel.</p><p><blockquote>当下周财报季开始时,投资者将首次了解这些担忧。银行得到了所有的关注,这是有充分理由的。摩根大通(股票代码:JPM)、美国银行(BAC)和花旗集团(C)的报告应该有助于让市场了解美国经济的实力、贷款需求甚至消费者支出。(金融业利润预计将增长18%。)但其他公司将向投资者提供自己对成本和利润率的看法。工业紧固件分销商Fastenal(FAST)预计周一将公布每股42美分的利润,尽管由于担心工资和运费上涨,富国银行周五下调了该公司的评级。达美航空(DAL)应该对工资压力以及旅行需求进行解读。</blockquote></p><p> Just don’t expect the same kind of earnings season we’ve experienced since Covid. Since the lockdowns, U.S. corporations have, for the most part, reported massive earnings growth and sizable “beats,” but something has changed. Analysts have stopped revising their earnings expectations higher and have been lowering them instead. Earnings are still expected to rise more than 20% from the third quarter one year ago, although the rate of growth is slowing. And with stocks still pricey—the S&P 500 is trading at 20.6 times 12-month forward earnings—there is little room for error. “There are a lot of adjustments that need to go on,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US. “The market has more downside than upside in the short term.”</p><p><blockquote>只是不要指望我们会经历自新冠疫情以来经历的那种财报季。自封锁以来,美国企业在很大程度上报告了大幅的盈利增长和可观的“增长”,但有些事情已经发生了变化。分析师已不再上调盈利预期,而是下调盈利预期。尽管增长速度正在放缓,但预计盈利仍将比一年前的第三季度增长20%以上。由于股票仍然昂贵——标普500的交易价格是12个月预期市盈率的20.6倍——几乎没有犯错的余地。CIBC Private Wealth US首席投资官戴夫·多纳贝迪安(Dave Donabedian)表示:“需要进行很多调整。”“市场短期内下行空间大于上行空间。”</blockquote></p><p> The new normal? It might just be more volatility.</p><p><blockquote>新常态?可能只是波动性更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Survived a Scary Week. Why This Week Could Be Scarier.<blockquote>股市度过了可怕的一周。为什么这周会更可怕。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Survived a Scary Week. Why This Week Could Be Scarier.<blockquote>股市度过了可怕的一周。为什么这周会更可怕。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-11 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survive earnings season?</p><p><blockquote>股市在过去一周的债务上限之争和油价飙升中幸存下来。它能挺过财报季吗?</blockquote></p><p> The week began with everything falling apart—energy prices were skyrocketing and the U.S. appeared on the verge of default. It ended with lower oil prices, thanks to Vladimir Putin, of all people, and the debt-ceiling being pushed off to December. It even brushed off what looked to be a surprisingly weak jobs report to—wait for it—finish higher.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始,一切都分崩离析——能源价格飙升,美国似乎濒临违约。多亏了弗拉基米尔·普京,油价下跌,债务上限被推迟到12月。它甚至无视了看似令人惊讶的疲软就业报告——等着瞧吧——收盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% this past week, while the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite squeaked out a 0.1% advance. For the Dow, it was just the second rise in the past six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上周上涨1.2%,标准普尔500指数上涨0.8%,纳斯达克综合指数小幅上涨0.1%。对于道琼斯指数来说,这只是过去六周内的第二次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But let’s admit something right here, right now. None of this is normal—not the politics, and certainly not the economic data. September’s jobs report was a disaster—but not because of the disappointing headline number. Yes, the U.S. added just 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 500,000, and that’s the kind of miss that would suggest a slowing economy. The number, though, was close to meaningless, given the seasonal adjustments—which may have skewed it lower—and by comparison to the household survey, which showed more than 500,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. Try making an investment decision off that.</p><p><blockquote>但是让我们现在就承认一些事情。这些都不正常——政治不正常,经济数据当然也不正常。九月份的就业报告是一场灾难——但并不是因为令人失望的头条数据。是的,美国9月份仅增加了194,000个就业岗位,远低于预期的500,000个,这种失误表明经济正在放缓。不过,考虑到季节性调整(这可能会使其偏低),并且与家庭调查相比,这个数字几乎毫无意义。家庭调查显示,随着失业率降至4.8%,新增就业岗位超过50万个。尝试以此为基础做出投资决定。</blockquote></p><p> “Investors should be careful to temper their reactions to the non-farm payroll report, which is quite volatile and typically undergoes material revisions in the months following the initial release,” writes Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>Glenmede私人财富首席投资官贾森·普莱德(Jason Pride)写道:“投资者应该小心缓和对非农就业报告的反应,该报告相当不稳定,通常会在首次发布后的几个月内进行重大修订。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market tried to make the best of it. While bonds initially saw a bit of buying, pushing yields down, the 10-year Treasury closed the week with a yield of 1.6%, its highest since June, defying what appeared to be bad news. The Dow finished Friday down 0.03%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq declined 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,市场还是试图充分利用它。虽然债券最初出现了一些买盘,压低了收益率,但10年期国债收益率本周收于1.6%,为6月份以来的最高水平,无视了看似坏消息的影响。道琼斯指数周五收盘下跌0.03%,标普500下跌0.2%,纳斯达克下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That the stock market would do virtually nothing makes sense given the complexity of the employment picture. Job openings remain high, but the number of people leaving the workforce only seems to increase. Even rising pay—average hourly wages rose 4.6%—hasn’t been able to bring workers back. And that means that the labor market, despite an unemployment rate well above prepandemic levels of 3.5%, might actually be much tighter than it looks.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到就业形势的复杂性,股市几乎无所作为是有道理的。职位空缺仍然很高,但离开劳动力市场的人数似乎只会增加。即使工资上涨——平均时薪上涨4.6%——也没能让工人回来。这意味着,尽管失业率远高于疫情前3.5%的水平,但劳动力市场实际上可能比看起来要紧张得多。</blockquote></p><p> The reality of rising costs, from labor and raw materials, has begun worrying investors. Just 25% of investors expect corporate profit margins to expand over the next six to 12 months, says an RBC Capital Markets survey, down from 39% in June. Some 36% now expect margins to contract, up from 19%. The respondents are also becoming more pessimistic about the market—28% now describe themselves as bearish, up from 14%.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力和原材料成本上升的现实已经开始让投资者感到担忧。加拿大皇家银行资本市场的一项调查显示,只有25%的投资者预计企业利润率将在未来6至12个月内扩大,低于6月份的39%。目前约36%的人预计利润率将收缩,高于19%。受访者对市场也变得更加悲观——28%的人现在表示自己看跌,高于14%。</blockquote></p><p> The worst may not be over yet, writes Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “The results of our own survey support our belief that the unwind in institutional investor sentiment that’s been underway hasn’t fully played out yet, which may contribute to further volatility in the broader U.S. equity market in the near term,” she explains.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)写道,最糟糕的时期可能还没有结束。她解释说:“我们自己的调查结果支持了我们的信念,即机构投资者情绪的缓和尚未完全显现,这可能会导致短期内美国股市进一步波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a first read on those fears when earnings season starts this coming week. The banks get all the attention, and for good reason. Reports from JPMorgan Chase (ticker: JPM),Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C) should help give the market a read on the strength of the U.S. economy, the demand for loans, and even consumer spending. (Financial-sector profits are expected to grow by 18%.) But other companies will give investors their own read on costs and margins.Fastenal (FAST), a distributor of industrial fasteners, is expected to report a profit of 42 cents a share on Monday, though it was downgraded by Wells Fargo on Friday over concerns about rising wages and freight costs.Delta Air Lines (DAL) should give a read on wage pressures, as well as the demand for travel.</p><p><blockquote>当下周财报季开始时,投资者将首次了解这些担忧。银行得到了所有的关注,这是有充分理由的。摩根大通(股票代码:JPM)、美国银行(BAC)和花旗集团(C)的报告应该有助于让市场了解美国经济的实力、贷款需求甚至消费者支出。(金融业利润预计将增长18%。)但其他公司将向投资者提供自己对成本和利润率的看法。工业紧固件分销商Fastenal(FAST)预计周一将公布每股42美分的利润,尽管由于担心工资和运费上涨,富国银行周五下调了该公司的评级。达美航空(DAL)应该对工资压力以及旅行需求进行解读。</blockquote></p><p> Just don’t expect the same kind of earnings season we’ve experienced since Covid. Since the lockdowns, U.S. corporations have, for the most part, reported massive earnings growth and sizable “beats,” but something has changed. Analysts have stopped revising their earnings expectations higher and have been lowering them instead. Earnings are still expected to rise more than 20% from the third quarter one year ago, although the rate of growth is slowing. And with stocks still pricey—the S&P 500 is trading at 20.6 times 12-month forward earnings—there is little room for error. “There are a lot of adjustments that need to go on,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US. “The market has more downside than upside in the short term.”</p><p><blockquote>只是不要指望我们会经历自新冠疫情以来经历的那种财报季。自封锁以来,美国企业在很大程度上报告了大幅的盈利增长和可观的“增长”,但有些事情已经发生了变化。分析师已不再上调盈利预期,而是下调盈利预期。尽管增长速度正在放缓,但预计盈利仍将比一年前的第三季度增长20%以上。由于股票仍然昂贵——标普500的交易价格是12个月预期市盈率的20.6倍——几乎没有犯错的余地。CIBC Private Wealth US首席投资官戴夫·多纳贝迪安(Dave Donabedian)表示:“需要进行很多调整。”“市场短期内下行空间大于上行空间。”</blockquote></p><p> The new normal? It might just be more volatility.</p><p><blockquote>新常态?可能只是波动性更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-earnings-season-51633738642?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-earnings-season-51633738642?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132567957","content_text":"The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survive earnings season?\nThe week began with everything falling apart—energy prices were skyrocketing and the U.S. appeared on the verge of default. It ended with lower oil prices, thanks to Vladimir Putin, of all people, and the debt-ceiling being pushed off to December. It even brushed off what looked to be a surprisingly weak jobs report to—wait for it—finish higher.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% this past week, while the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite squeaked out a 0.1% advance. For the Dow, it was just the second rise in the past six weeks.\nBut let’s admit something right here, right now. None of this is normal—not the politics, and certainly not the economic data. September’s jobs report was a disaster—but not because of the disappointing headline number. Yes, the U.S. added just 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 500,000, and that’s the kind of miss that would suggest a slowing economy. The number, though, was close to meaningless, given the seasonal adjustments—which may have skewed it lower—and by comparison to the household survey, which showed more than 500,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. Try making an investment decision off that.\n“Investors should be careful to temper their reactions to the non-farm payroll report, which is quite volatile and typically undergoes material revisions in the months following the initial release,” writes Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.\nStill, the market tried to make the best of it. While bonds initially saw a bit of buying, pushing yields down, the 10-year Treasury closed the week with a yield of 1.6%, its highest since June, defying what appeared to be bad news. The Dow finished Friday down 0.03%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq declined 0.5%.\nThat the stock market would do virtually nothing makes sense given the complexity of the employment picture. Job openings remain high, but the number of people leaving the workforce only seems to increase. Even rising pay—average hourly wages rose 4.6%—hasn’t been able to bring workers back. And that means that the labor market, despite an unemployment rate well above prepandemic levels of 3.5%, might actually be much tighter than it looks.\nThe reality of rising costs, from labor and raw materials, has begun worrying investors. Just 25% of investors expect corporate profit margins to expand over the next six to 12 months, says an RBC Capital Markets survey, down from 39% in June. Some 36% now expect margins to contract, up from 19%. The respondents are also becoming more pessimistic about the market—28% now describe themselves as bearish, up from 14%.\nThe worst may not be over yet, writes Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “The results of our own survey support our belief that the unwind in institutional investor sentiment that’s been underway hasn’t fully played out yet, which may contribute to further volatility in the broader U.S. equity market in the near term,” she explains.\nInvestors will get a first read on those fears when earnings season starts this coming week. The banks get all the attention, and for good reason. Reports from JPMorgan Chase (ticker: JPM),Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C) should help give the market a read on the strength of the U.S. economy, the demand for loans, and even consumer spending. (Financial-sector profits are expected to grow by 18%.) But other companies will give investors their own read on costs and margins.Fastenal (FAST), a distributor of industrial fasteners, is expected to report a profit of 42 cents a share on Monday, though it was downgraded by Wells Fargo on Friday over concerns about rising wages and freight costs.Delta Air Lines (DAL) should give a read on wage pressures, as well as the demand for travel.\nJust don’t expect the same kind of earnings season we’ve experienced since Covid. Since the lockdowns, U.S. corporations have, for the most part, reported massive earnings growth and sizable “beats,” but something has changed. Analysts have stopped revising their earnings expectations higher and have been lowering them instead. Earnings are still expected to rise more than 20% from the third quarter one year ago, although the rate of growth is slowing. And with stocks still pricey—the S&P 500 is trading at 20.6 times 12-month forward earnings—there is little room for error. “There are a lot of adjustments that need to go on,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US. “The market has more downside than upside in the short term.”\nThe new normal? It might just be more volatility.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881362568,"gmtCreate":1631295526254,"gmtModify":1632883319957,"author":{"id":"4091333355237140","authorId":"4091333355237140","name":"PYBG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffceefb16436db08633bced1bf654393","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091333355237140","authorIdStr":"4091333355237140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881362568","repostId":"2166511379","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881366762,"gmtCreate":1631295405256,"gmtModify":1632883320381,"author":{"id":"4091333355237140","authorId":"4091333355237140","name":"PYBG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffceefb16436db08633bced1bf654393","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091333355237140","authorIdStr":"4091333355237140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow, scary","listText":"Wow, scary","text":"Wow, scary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881366762","repostId":"1150874422","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}