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- PekkyPekky
  ·2022-01-07
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- PekkyPekky
  ·2022-01-04
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- PekkyPekky
  ·2021-12-30
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  Hot Chinese ADRs Dipped in Morning Trading
  Hot Chinese ADRs dipped in morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com,Pinduoduo,Baidu,NetEase,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,DiDi Global,Bilibili and iQIYI fell between 1% and 6%.
  Hot Chinese ADRs Dipped in Morning Trading
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- PekkyPekky
  ·2021-12-28
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  Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff
  Summary Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest
  Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff
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- PekkyPekky
  ·2021-11-16
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- PekkyPekky
  ·2021-11-16
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- PekkyPekky
  ·2021-11-10
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- PekkyPekky
  ·2021-11-04
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- PekkyPekky
  ·2021-11-01
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  Federal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week
  The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set th
  Federal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week
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- PekkyPekky
  ·2021-10-31
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  Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming
  A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors a
  Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming
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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot Chinese ADRs Dipped in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-29 23:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Hot Chinese ADRs dipped in morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com,Pinduoduo,Baidu,NetEase,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,DiDi Global,Bilibili and iQIYI fell between 1% and 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65ee7e3f4252f8b3afbb692fb871ca4\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53189e33d2ae719ac2b191271c2534ef\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NTES":"网易","BABA":"阿里巴巴","TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方","JD":"京东","PDD":"拼多多","NIO":"蔚来","RLX":"雾芯科技","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","IQ":"爱奇艺","GOTU":"高途","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BIDU":"百度","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BEKE":"贝壳"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136328785","content_text":"Hot Chinese ADRs dipped in morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com,Pinduoduo,Baidu,NetEase,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,DiDi Global,Bilibili and iQIYI fell between 1% and 6%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"BEKE":0.9,"BIDU":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"EDU":0.9,"GOTU":0.9,"IQ":0.9,"JD":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NTES":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"RLX":0.9,"TAL":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696603325,"gmtCreate":1640673890397,"gmtModify":1640673897428,"author":{"id":"4098336843399230","authorId":"4098336843399230","name":"Pekky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd28a8db13bf4a54062dc236f54e6cf4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098336843399230","authorIdStr":"4098336843399230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696603325","repostId":"1102262158","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102262158","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640670598,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102262158?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-28 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102262158","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li>\n <li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Thesis</b></p>\n<p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an&nbsp;article&nbsp;highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p>\n<p>It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p>\n<p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p>\n<p><b>Gaming</b></p>\n<p>Sea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p>\n<p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p>\n<p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p>\n<p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p>\n<p>Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p>\n<p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p>\n<p>While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p>\n<p>Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.</p>\n<p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.</p>\n<p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li>\n <li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li>\n <li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li>\n <li>Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>E-Commerce</b></p>\n<p>Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p>\n<p>There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p>\n<p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p>\n<p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p>\n<p>On the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p>\n<p>Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p>\n<p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p>\n<p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p>\n<p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p>\n<p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.</p>\n<p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p>\n<p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p>\n<p>To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p>\n<p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p>\n<p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p>\n<p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p>\n<p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.</p>\n<p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p>\n<p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p>\n<p>Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p>\n<p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p>\n<p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's,&nbsp;Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p>\n<p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p>\n<p>Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Looking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p>\n<p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p>\n<p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-28 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476940-sea-limited-understand-the-recent-selloff><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nSea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.\nI dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476940-sea-limited-understand-the-recent-selloff\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476940-sea-limited-understand-the-recent-selloff","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102262158","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.\nI dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.\nI consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.\n\nkokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThesis\nA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.\nFurthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.\nIt's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.\nBecause Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.\nGaming\nSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.\nThe game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.\nWith the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.\nRegardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.\nThus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.\nSource: Earnings Call Presentation\nIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.\nWhile 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).\nGarena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.\nThis means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.\nI believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:\n\nNext year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.\nThe peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.\nGarena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.\nAlthough I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.\n\nE-Commerce\nSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.\nThere's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.\nOne neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.\nSource: The Author, compiled from Alexa\nShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.\nSource: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie\nOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.\nOf course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.\nSo why would a company with so much potential sell off?\nAfter the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.\nAnother complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.\nThe company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.\nDespite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.\nFor unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).\nTo understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.\nIf Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.\nGiven this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.\nSo I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.\nThus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.\nFinTech & Investments\nThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.\nThen there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.\nDespite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.\nIf one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.\nOne way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.\nFinally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.\nConclusion\nLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.\nThis optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.\nOnly fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871367050,"gmtCreate":1637027499454,"gmtModify":1637027499454,"author":{"id":"4098336843399230","authorId":"4098336843399230","name":"Pekky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd28a8db13bf4a54062dc236f54e6cf4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098336843399230","authorIdStr":"4098336843399230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871367050","repostId":"2183749100","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871364108,"gmtCreate":1637027462057,"gmtModify":1637027462057,"author":{"id":"4098336843399230","authorId":"4098336843399230","name":"Pekky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd28a8db13bf4a54062dc236f54e6cf4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098336843399230","authorIdStr":"4098336843399230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871364108","repostId":"1140879609","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847620692,"gmtCreate":1636514963503,"gmtModify":1636514963623,"author":{"id":"4098336843399230","authorId":"4098336843399230","name":"Pekky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd28a8db13bf4a54062dc236f54e6cf4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098336843399230","authorIdStr":"4098336843399230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847620692","repostId":"2182708688","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848795672,"gmtCreate":1636027127510,"gmtModify":1636027274900,"author":{"id":"4098336843399230","authorId":"4098336843399230","name":"Pekky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd28a8db13bf4a54062dc236f54e6cf4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098336843399230","authorIdStr":"4098336843399230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848795672","repostId":"2180760173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849226097,"gmtCreate":1635760023916,"gmtModify":1635760023916,"author":{"id":"4098336843399230","authorId":"4098336843399230","name":"Pekky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd28a8db13bf4a54062dc236f54e6cf4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098336843399230","authorIdStr":"4098336843399230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849226097","repostId":"2179250221","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179250221","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635721559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2179250221?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 07:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Federal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179250221","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set th","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790c3fdfdc38fa2b5b3a13d89fb1959a\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2940\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set the stage for a long-awaited announcement of asset-purchase tapering. Meanwhile, traders will also await more data on the U.S. economic recovery with the Labor Department's monthly jobs report later this week.</p>\n<p>The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) November meeting will take place from Tuesday to Wednesday, with the policy statement and press conference from the meeting serving as the central bank's penultimate opportunity this year to announce formal plans to begin rolling back its crisis-era quantitative easing program. For the past year-and-a-half, the central bank has been purchasing $120 billion per month in agency mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> major tool to support the economy during the pandemic.</p>\n<p>In late September, the FOMC's latest monetary policy statement and press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> suggested the central bank was apt to announce the start of tapering before year-end, and continue the tapering process until \"around the middle of next year.\"</p>\n<p>\"The upcoming FOMC meeting will be important for three reasons: 1) the announcement of tapering; 2) guidance around what tapering means for the path of hikes; and 3) nuanced changes in views around inflation risks given recent data,\" wrote <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> economist Michelle Meyer in a note.</p>\n<p>\"The statement that announces the new pace of asset purchases will be followed by a note regarding flexibility stating that asset purchases are not on a pre-set course and will depend on the outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as an assessment of the efficacy of asset purchases,\" she predicted.</p>\n<p>She noted that Powell may also use the press conference to reiterate that the end of tapering would not necessarily indicate the start of rate hikes, and that both policy actions are distinct. In previous public remarks, Powell has already made a similar point in previous public remarks, saying, \"the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff.\"</p>\n<p>Given the market has been anticipating the start to tapering for months now, speculation around when the Fed will make a move on interest rates has become a point of particular interest to investors. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> and economists have mulled whether the Fed may need to act more quickly than previously telegraphed on adjusting interest rates to stave off inflation, which has proven more long-lasting than some had suggested.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0f0ae63a784eef5578397df02340483\" tg-width=\"4932\" tg-height=\"3288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 24: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill on September 24, 2020 in Washington, DC. Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are testifying about the CARES Act and the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)Drew Angerer via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>In September, core personal consumption expenditures — the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation — rose 3.6% over last year for a fourth consecutive month, coming in at the fastest clip since 1991. And earlier this month, Powell acknowledged in public remarks that the supply chain constraints and shortages that spurred the latest rise in prices are \"likely to last longer than previously expected, likely well into next year.\"</p>\n<p>While the central bank will not release an updated Summary of Economic Projections with their policy statement on Wednesday, the latest projections from the September meeting suggested the committee was split on rate hikes for 2022, with nine members seeing no rate hikes by the end of next year while the other nine members saw at least <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> hike.</p>\n<p>\"I think the Fed has pretty well determined to start the taper pretty quickly. We expect them to announce it next week and then start it soon thereafter, so that's pretty well carved in stone,\" Kathy Jones, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a> chief fixed income strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live last week. \"I think the big debate now is how quickly the Fed moves toward actually raising rates. The expectation in the market has really shifted to expecting as many as two rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 ... that’s a pretty aggressive pace of tightening.\"</p>\n<h2>October jobs report</h2>\n<p>One of this week's most closely watched pieces of economic data will be the October jobs report, which is due for release on Friday from the Labor Department.</p>\n<p>Economists are looking to see a pick-up in the pace of hiring for October after a disappointing print in September, when just 194,000 non-farm payrolls returned versus the half million expected. Over the past two months, payroll gains averaged at just 280,000. The unemployment rate is expected to take another small step toward pre-pandemic levels in October as well, with the jobless rate anticipated to dip to 4.7% from 4.8% the prior month.</p>\n<p>Still, the labor market has still fallen short its pre-pandemic conditions on a number of fronts. The unemployment rate has yet to return to its 50-year low of 3.5% from February 2020. And as of September, the civilian labor force was still down by about 3.1 million individuals from pre-virus levels.</p>\n<p>One factor weighing on the labor market in August and September was the Delta variant, which may have deterred some workers from seeking employment in person for risk of infection. And an ongoing element dragging on the labor market's recovery has been a mismatch of supply and demand, with employers struggling to fill a near-record number of job openings while voluntary quits jumped to a historically high level.</p>\n<p>\"Next week’s October payrolls report will shed light on whether supply eased on diminishing constraints or if the labor market continues to face headwinds for now,\" wrote Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, in a note last week.</p>\n<p>But some data from the past couple weeks has reflected favorably on conditions in the labor market in October. Weekly new unemployment claims broke below 300,000 for the first time since the start of the pandemic during the survey week for the October jobs report, or the week that includes the 12th of the month. And in the Conference Board's October Consumer Confidence Index, just 10.6% of consumers said jobs were \"hard to get,\" down from 13.0% in September. That brought the Conference Board's closely watched labor market differential, or percentage of consumers saying jobs are \"hard to get\" subtracted from the percentage saying jobs \"are plentiful,\" to 45, or its highest level since 2000.</p>\n<h2>Economic calendar</h2>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Monday: </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Oct. final (59.3 expected, 59.2 in September); Constructing spending, month-over-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.0% in August); ISM Manufacturing Index, Oct. (60.5 expected, 61.1 in September)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Tuesday: </b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b>Wednesday: </b>MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Oct. 29 (0.3% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, Oct. (400,000 expected, 568,000 in September); ISM Services Index, October (62.0 expected, 61.9 in September); Factory Orders, September (-0.1% expected, 1.2% in August); Durable goods orders, September final (-0.4% in prior print; Durable goods orders excluding transportation, September final (0.4% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, September final (0.8% in prior print); Markit U.S. Services PMI, October final (58.2 expected, 58.2 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, October final (57.3 in prior print); Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy decision</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Thursday: </b>Challenger job cuts, year-over-year, October (-84.9% in September); Initial jobless claims, week ended Oct. 30 (275,000 expected, 281,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Oct. 23 (2.147 million expected, 2.243 million during prior week); Non-farm productivity, Q3 preliminary (-3.2% expected, 2.1% in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>); <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNT\">Unit</a> Labor Costs, Q3 preliminary (6.9% expected, 1.3% in Q2); Trade balance, September (-$80.1 billion expected, -$73.3 billion in August)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Friday: </b>Change in non-farm payrolls, October (450,000 expected, 194,000 in September); Unemployment rate, October (4.7% expected, 4.8% in September); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, October (4.7% expected, 4.8% in September); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, October (4.9% expected, 4.6% in September); Labor Force Participation Rate, October (61.8% expected, 61.6% in September); Consumer Credit, September ($16.200 billion expected, $14.379 million in August)</p></li>\n</ul>\n<h2>Earnings calendar</h2>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Monday: </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLX\">Clorox</a> (CLX), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAR\">Avis Budget</a> Group (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00699\">CAR</a>), ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHGG\">Chegg Inc</a>. (CHGG), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANG\">Diamondback Energy</a> (FANG), The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPG\">Simon Property</a> Group (SPG) after market close</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Tuesday: </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UA.C\">Under Armour</a> (UAA), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EL\">Estee Lauder</a> (EL), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RL\">Ralph Lauren</a> (RL), Apollo Global Management (APO), Corsair Gaming (CRSR), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLMN\">Bloomin' Brands</a> (BLMN), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">ConocoPhillips</a> (COP), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a> (PFE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRPN\">Groupon</a> (GPN), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon</a> Petroleum (MPC) before market open; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDLZ\">Mondelez</a> (MDLZ), T-Mobile (TMUS), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AKAM\">Akamai</a> (AKAM), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a> (ATVI), Lyft (LYFT), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTCH\">Match</a> Group (MTCH), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVN\">Devon</a> Energy (DVN), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHK\">Chesapeake</a> Energy (CHK), Coursera (COUR), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a> Group (ZG), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a> (AMGN) after market close</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Wednesday: </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUM\">Humana</a> (HUM), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DISCA\">Discovery</a> Inc. (DISCA), The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">New York Times</a> (NYT), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian Cruise Line</a> Holdings (NCLH), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAR\">Marriott</a> International (MAR), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a> Corp. (CVS), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBGI\">Sinclair Broadcast Group</a> (SBGI) before market open; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> (BKNG), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QRVO\">Qorvo</a> (QRVO), The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALL\">Allstate</a> Corp. (ALL), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MGM\">MGM Resorts International</a> (MGM), $Take-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> Interactive Software(TTWO)$ (TTWO), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EA\">Electronic Arts</a> (EA), Vimeo (VMEO), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a> (ETSY), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDDY\">GoDaddy</a> (GDDY), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRO\">Marathon</a> Oil Corp. (MRO), Roku (ROKU), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a> (QCOM) after market close</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Thursday: </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CI\">Cigna</a> (CI), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a> (W), ViacomCBS (VIAC), Nikola (NKLA), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DEX.AU\">Duke</a> Energy (DUK), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTXS\">Citrix</a> Systems (CTXS), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">Regeneron Pharmaceuticals</a> (REGN), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBI\">Hanesbrands</a> (HBI), Moderna (MRNA), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLNT\">Planet Fitness</a> (PLNT), Vulcan Material (VMC), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/K\">Kellogg</a> (K), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> (SQ), Cloudflare (NET), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> Petroleum (OXY), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a> Technologies (UBER), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> International Group (AIG), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHAK\">Shake Shack</a> (SHAK), iHeartMedia (IHRT), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a> (NVAX), IAC Interactive Corp. (IAC), Peloton (PTON), Dropbox (DBX), DataDog (DDOG), Pinterest (PINS), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">Skyworks Solutions</a> (SWKS), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPE\">Expedia</a> (EXPE), Rocket Cos. (RKT), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation Entertainment</a> (LYV), Airbnb (ABNB)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Friday: </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn</a> Resorts (WYNN), Dish Networks (DISH), Dominion Energy (D), DraftKings (DKNG), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GT\">Goodyear</a> Tire and Rubber (GT), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNK\">Cinemark</a> Holdings (CNK) before market open</p></li>\n</ul>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve decision, October jobs report: What to know this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-01 07:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set the stage for a long-awaited announcement of asset-purchase tapering. Meanwhile, traders will also ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EL":"雅诗兰黛","ATVI":"动视暴雪",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PFE":"辉瑞","RL":"拉夫劳伦",".DJI":"道琼斯","CLX":"高乐氏","BLMN":"Bloomin' Brands","UBER":"优步","APO":"阿波罗全球管理","CRSR":"Corsair Gaming, Inc.","COP":"康菲石油",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-october-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-151259921.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179250221","content_text":"The Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy meeting will be in focus this week, and may set the stage for a long-awaited announcement of asset-purchase tapering. Meanwhile, traders will also await more data on the U.S. economic recovery with the Labor Department's monthly jobs report later this week.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) November meeting will take place from Tuesday to Wednesday, with the policy statement and press conference from the meeting serving as the central bank's penultimate opportunity this year to announce formal plans to begin rolling back its crisis-era quantitative easing program. For the past year-and-a-half, the central bank has been purchasing $120 billion per month in agency mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries, as one major tool to support the economy during the pandemic.\nIn late September, the FOMC's latest monetary policy statement and press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank was apt to announce the start of tapering before year-end, and continue the tapering process until \"around the middle of next year.\"\n\"The upcoming FOMC meeting will be important for three reasons: 1) the announcement of tapering; 2) guidance around what tapering means for the path of hikes; and 3) nuanced changes in views around inflation risks given recent data,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note.\n\"The statement that announces the new pace of asset purchases will be followed by a note regarding flexibility stating that asset purchases are not on a pre-set course and will depend on the outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as an assessment of the efficacy of asset purchases,\" she predicted.\nShe noted that Powell may also use the press conference to reiterate that the end of tapering would not necessarily indicate the start of rate hikes, and that both policy actions are distinct. In previous public remarks, Powell has already made a similar point in previous public remarks, saying, \"the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff.\"\nGiven the market has been anticipating the start to tapering for months now, speculation around when the Fed will make a move on interest rates has become a point of particular interest to investors. Investors and economists have mulled whether the Fed may need to act more quickly than previously telegraphed on adjusting interest rates to stave off inflation, which has proven more long-lasting than some had suggested.\nWASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 24: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill on September 24, 2020 in Washington, DC. Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are testifying about the CARES Act and the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)Drew Angerer via Getty Images\nIn September, core personal consumption expenditures — the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation — rose 3.6% over last year for a fourth consecutive month, coming in at the fastest clip since 1991. And earlier this month, Powell acknowledged in public remarks that the supply chain constraints and shortages that spurred the latest rise in prices are \"likely to last longer than previously expected, likely well into next year.\"\nWhile the central bank will not release an updated Summary of Economic Projections with their policy statement on Wednesday, the latest projections from the September meeting suggested the committee was split on rate hikes for 2022, with nine members seeing no rate hikes by the end of next year while the other nine members saw at least one hike.\n\"I think the Fed has pretty well determined to start the taper pretty quickly. We expect them to announce it next week and then start it soon thereafter, so that's pretty well carved in stone,\" Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab chief fixed income strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live last week. \"I think the big debate now is how quickly the Fed moves toward actually raising rates. The expectation in the market has really shifted to expecting as many as two rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 ... that’s a pretty aggressive pace of tightening.\"\nOctober jobs report\nOne of this week's most closely watched pieces of economic data will be the October jobs report, which is due for release on Friday from the Labor Department.\nEconomists are looking to see a pick-up in the pace of hiring for October after a disappointing print in September, when just 194,000 non-farm payrolls returned versus the half million expected. Over the past two months, payroll gains averaged at just 280,000. The unemployment rate is expected to take another small step toward pre-pandemic levels in October as well, with the jobless rate anticipated to dip to 4.7% from 4.8% the prior month.\nStill, the labor market has still fallen short its pre-pandemic conditions on a number of fronts. The unemployment rate has yet to return to its 50-year low of 3.5% from February 2020. And as of September, the civilian labor force was still down by about 3.1 million individuals from pre-virus levels.\nOne factor weighing on the labor market in August and September was the Delta variant, which may have deterred some workers from seeking employment in person for risk of infection. And an ongoing element dragging on the labor market's recovery has been a mismatch of supply and demand, with employers struggling to fill a near-record number of job openings while voluntary quits jumped to a historically high level.\n\"Next week’s October payrolls report will shed light on whether supply eased on diminishing constraints or if the labor market continues to face headwinds for now,\" wrote Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, in a note last week.\nBut some data from the past couple weeks has reflected favorably on conditions in the labor market in October. Weekly new unemployment claims broke below 300,000 for the first time since the start of the pandemic during the survey week for the October jobs report, or the week that includes the 12th of the month. And in the Conference Board's October Consumer Confidence Index, just 10.6% of consumers said jobs were \"hard to get,\" down from 13.0% in September. That brought the Conference Board's closely watched labor market differential, or percentage of consumers saying jobs are \"hard to get\" subtracted from the percentage saying jobs \"are plentiful,\" to 45, or its highest level since 2000.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Oct. final (59.3 expected, 59.2 in September); Constructing spending, month-over-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.0% in August); ISM Manufacturing Index, Oct. (60.5 expected, 61.1 in September)\nTuesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Oct. 29 (0.3% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, Oct. (400,000 expected, 568,000 in September); ISM Services Index, October (62.0 expected, 61.9 in September); Factory Orders, September (-0.1% expected, 1.2% in August); Durable goods orders, September final (-0.4% in prior print; Durable goods orders excluding transportation, September final (0.4% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, September final (0.8% in prior print); Markit U.S. Services PMI, October final (58.2 expected, 58.2 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, October final (57.3 in prior print); Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy decision\nThursday: Challenger job cuts, year-over-year, October (-84.9% in September); Initial jobless claims, week ended Oct. 30 (275,000 expected, 281,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Oct. 23 (2.147 million expected, 2.243 million during prior week); Non-farm productivity, Q3 preliminary (-3.2% expected, 2.1% in Q2); Unit Labor Costs, Q3 preliminary (6.9% expected, 1.3% in Q2); Trade balance, September (-$80.1 billion expected, -$73.3 billion in August)\nFriday: Change in non-farm payrolls, October (450,000 expected, 194,000 in September); Unemployment rate, October (4.7% expected, 4.8% in September); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, October (4.7% expected, 4.8% in September); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, October (4.9% expected, 4.6% in September); Labor Force Participation Rate, October (61.8% expected, 61.6% in September); Consumer Credit, September ($16.200 billion expected, $14.379 million in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Clorox (CLX), Avis Budget Group (CAR), ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI), Chegg Inc. (CHGG), Diamondback Energy (FANG), The Simon Property Group (SPG) after market close\nTuesday: Under Armour (UAA), Estee Lauder (EL), Ralph Lauren (RL), Apollo Global Management (APO), Corsair Gaming (CRSR), Bloomin' Brands (BLMN), ConocoPhillips (COP), Pfizer (PFE), Groupon (GPN), Marathon Petroleum (MPC) before market open; Mondelez (MDLZ), T-Mobile (TMUS), Akamai (AKAM), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Lyft (LYFT), Match Group (MTCH), Devon Energy (DVN), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Coursera (COUR), Zillow Group (ZG), Amgen (AMGN) after market close\nWednesday: Humana (HUM), Discovery Inc. (DISCA), The New York Times (NYT), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Marriott International (MAR), CVS Health Corp. (CVS), Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) before market open; Booking Holdings (BKNG), Qorvo (QRVO), The Allstate Corp. (ALL), MGM Resorts International (MGM), $Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO)$ (TTWO), Electronic Arts (EA), Vimeo (VMEO), Etsy (ETSY), GoDaddy (GDDY), Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO), Roku (ROKU), Qualcomm (QCOM) after market close\nThursday: Cigna (CI), Wayfair (W), ViacomCBS (VIAC), Nikola (NKLA), Duke Energy (DUK), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Hanesbrands (HBI), Moderna (MRNA), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Vulcan Material (VMC), Kellogg (K), Square (SQ), Cloudflare (NET), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Uber Technologies (UBER), American International Group (AIG), Shake Shack (SHAK), iHeartMedia (IHRT), Novavax (NVAX), IAC Interactive Corp. (IAC), Peloton (PTON), Dropbox (DBX), DataDog (DDOG), Pinterest (PINS), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Expedia (EXPE), Rocket Cos. (RKT), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), Airbnb (ABNB)\nFriday: Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Dish Networks (DISH), Dominion Energy (D), DraftKings (DKNG), Goodyear Tire and Rubber (GT), Cinemark Holdings (CNK) before market open","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"APO":0.9,"ATVI":0.9,"BLMN":0.9,"CLX":0.9,"COP":0.9,"CRSR":0.9,"EL":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"RL":0.9,"UBER":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840688276,"gmtCreate":1635643121676,"gmtModify":1635643121676,"author":{"id":"4098336843399230","authorId":"4098336843399230","name":"Pekky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd28a8db13bf4a54062dc236f54e6cf4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098336843399230","authorIdStr":"4098336843399230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840688276","repostId":"1130019043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130019043","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635579123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130019043?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 15:32","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130019043","media":"24/7 wall street","summary":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors a","content":"<p>A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.</p>\n<p>One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.</p>\n<p>If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.</p>\n<p>On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.</p>\n<p>We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.</p>\n<p>Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024.\n</blockquote>","source":"lsy1620372341666","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-30 15:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/><strong>24/7 wall street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130019043","content_text":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, one of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.\nOne of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.\nIf any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.\nOn March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.\nWe covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.\nOnce again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:\n\n Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.\n\n\n Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.\n\n\n Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}