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Monkey D luffy
IP属地：四川
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Monkey D luffy
Monkey D luffy
·
10-27
看控英伟达，人才
给出100美元目标价！英伟达“唯一的空头”：这不是我第一次看到泡沫
Seaport Global分析师Jay Goldberg认为，当前英伟达的惊人增长，主要依赖于少数几家科技巨头的巨额资本支出。但巨额投入迄今为止所产生的实际回报非常有限。他认为，这种模式与科网泡沫时期的电信基础设施建设非常相似，当时思科等公司的股价因预期中的互联网流量而飙升，但当预期未能立即兑现时，股价便遭受重创。二十多年后，思科的股价仍未回到2000年的高点。
给出100美元目标价！英伟达“唯一的空头”：这不是我第一次看到泡沫
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Monkey D luffy
Monkey D luffy
·
10-17
那为什么今天跌成屎了
甲骨文披露订单已超5000亿美元，预期AI基建毛利率可达35%
甲骨文在拉斯维加斯年度投资者大会上举例说明，一个为期六年、总收入600亿美元的AI基础设施项目，毛利率可达35%。甲骨文公司首次披露大型AI基础设施项目的利润率预期，缓解了投资者对这项关键新业务盈利能力的担忧。此外甲骨文指出现在剩余履约义务超过5000亿美元，并预计到2030财年营收将达到2250亿美元。在截至今年8月末的2026财年第一财季，甲骨文云业务总收入72亿美元，同比增长28%。
甲骨文披露订单已超5000亿美元，预期AI基建毛利率可达35%
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Monkey D luffy
Monkey D luffy
·
10-17
$甲骨文(ORCL)$
你怎么了，兄弟
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Monkey D luffy
Monkey D luffy
·
10-17
瞎报道
甲骨文公司债务现已超过5000亿美元
甲骨文 公司债务现已超过5000亿美元。
甲骨文公司债务现已超过5000亿美元
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Monkey D luffy
Monkey D luffy
·
10-08
$紫金黄金国际(02259)$
涨啊，我不想接盘！！
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Monkey D luffy
Monkey D luffy
·
10-07
老子刚买就遇到黑天鹅？
甲骨文租赁英伟达芯片服务器的毛利率在过去一年平均约为16%
甲骨文租赁英伟达芯片服务器的毛利率在过去一年平均约为16%。
甲骨文租赁英伟达芯片服务器的毛利率在过去一年平均约为16%
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Monkey D luffy
Monkey D luffy
·
10-07
低走了
异动解读 | 人工智能基础设施需求旺盛，CoreWeave盘中大涨5.05%
周一盘中，人工智能基础设施提供商CoreWeave, Inc.股价大幅上涨5.05%，引发市场关注。这一大规模合作凸显了CoreWeave在快速增长的AI市场中的关键地位。值得注意的是，CoreWeave不仅与Meta建立了合作关系，还与其他科技巨头保持密切联系。此外，CoreWeave还与支持者英伟达签署了价值63亿美元的初始订单，这些交易进一步巩固了公司在AI基础设施市场的地位。
异动解读 | 人工智能基础设施需求旺盛，CoreWeave盘中大涨5.05%
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Monkey D luffy
Monkey D luffy
·
10-02
Replying to
@和硕怡亲王
:做空美股，这辈子有了😁😁😁//
@和硕怡亲王
:我和你差不多，我空的指数和特斯拉。每天都睡不好。
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Monkey D luffy
Monkey D luffy
·
09-30
$甲骨文(ORCL)$
等你再跌跌，企稳了我再买[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
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Monkey D luffy
Monkey D luffy
·
09-30
分析师都喜欢瞎放屁，上次我准备买甲骨文，分析师说甲骨文太依赖 openAi，不看好，我就没买，后来甲骨文涨了 30%，分析师当笑话听听得了
美股“泡沫警报”响起！三大趋势预示1999年狂欢前夜重现
一场堪比互联网泡沫的危机正在悄然酝酿。
美股“泡沫警报”响起！三大趋势预示1999年狂欢前夜重现
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justify;\">这一立场与市场的普遍乐观情绪形成鲜明对比，目前华尔街分析师的平均目标价约为220美元，预示着还有18%的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"72ae193f\">历史重演？剑指科网泡沫</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在Goldberg看来，当前英伟达的惊人增长，主要依赖于少数几家科技巨头的巨额资本支出。微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta、甲骨文以及OpenAI这六家公司正在争相建设AI基础设施，它们的采购需求造就了英伟达高达4.5万亿美元的市值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年，这五家上市公司预计资本开支将接近4000亿美元，OpenAI也承诺投入逾1万亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，Goldberg提醒投资者关注这些巨额投入迄今为止所产生的实际回报有多么有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他认为，<strong>这种模式与科网泡沫时期的电信基础设施建设非常相似，当时思科等公司的股价因预期中的互联网流量而飙升，但当预期未能立即兑现时，股价便遭受重创。二十多年后，思科的股价仍未回到2000年的高点。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23e999d84c827d5663b03bb140b93dff\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldberg警告：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们现在看到的模式与当时的感觉非常相似。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>出于很大程度上的心理原因，我们将建起所有这些AI设施。在某个时候，支出将会停止，然后整个体系都会崩溃，我们将迎来一次重置。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"1d136c37\">电力、杠杆与有限的上行空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了历史对比，Goldberg还表示，既然市场观点认为英伟达的AI芯片已基本售罄，那么股价进一步上涨的空间来自哪里，这是一个疑问。“上行的驱动因素并不多”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldberg同时质疑为所有新建数据中心提供增量电力的来源尚未明确。此外，围绕数据中心开发的杠杆正在不断累积：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当你追溯所有这些GPU的去向时，你会深入到“新云”（neoclouds）以及所有正在发生的电力和房地产交易的细节中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">很容易想见，某个不起眼的公司倒下，就可能引发整个供应链的连锁反应。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，Goldberg的“卖出”评级并非建议投资者做空该股。<strong>他明确表示自己钦佩英伟达及其首席执行官黄仁勋的领导力。在他看来，“卖出”意味着他预计该股的表现将逊于博通、高通和AMD等同行。</strong></p><h2 id=\"ai\">华尔街对AI泡沫的担忧渐增</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管Jay Goldberg是唯一给出“卖出”评级的分析师，但他对AI泡沫的担忧情绪在华尔街并非个例。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛首席执行官David Solomon最近就将当前的AI热潮与科网泡沫时期的狂热进行了比较。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据美国银行最新的全球基金经理调查显示，认为AI股票存在泡沫的受访者比例创下历史新高。甚至OpenAI的首席执行官Sam Altman在被问及是否存在AI泡沫时，也给出了肯定的回答。这些声音都为Goldberg的逆向思维提供了一定程度的佐证。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> Goldberg谈到他的看空评级时也表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>我没有收到任何一个人反驳我的论点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>有人说我太早了……但没有人说我是个疯子。</strong>我想我们都看到了，AI领域存在一些过度繁荣的迹象，虽然英伟达是一家好公司，但它并非不朽。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"b07d6e0a\">压倒性看涨：“现在仍是早期阶段”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管Goldberg发出了泡沫警告，但华尔街的主流观点仍然坚定看涨。在80名覆盖英伟达的分析师中，有73人给予了相当于“买入”的评级，另有6人持“持有”看法。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Clearstead Advisors的高级董事总经理Jim Awad表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI是一个持续多年的代际周期，我们还处于早期阶段，甚至还没到中期。英伟达是其中的重要参与者，它正在为经济和股市提供动力。”该公司持有英伟达股票。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Harding Loevner LP的投资组合经理Moon Surana也表达了类似看法，他认为现在仍处于投资阶段的早期，</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前还没有出现产能过剩的迹象，没有任何GPU处于闲置状态。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场上最乐观的分析师是汇丰银行的Frank Lee，他最近将英伟达的评级上调至“买入”，目标价高达320美元，理由是AI加速器的市场需求将超越目前最大的几家客户。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>给出100美元目标价！英伟达“唯一的空头”：这不是我第一次看到泡沫</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n给出100美元目标价！英伟达“唯一的空头”：这不是我第一次看到泡沫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-27 07:00 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757915><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Seaport Global分析师Jay Goldberg认为，当前英伟达的惊人增长，主要依赖于少数几家科技巨头的巨额资本支出。但巨额投入迄今为止所产生的实际回报非常有限。这种模式与科网泡沫时期的电信基础设施建设非常相似，“出于很大程度上的心理原因，我们将建起所有这些AI设施。在某个时候，支出将会停止，然后整个体系都会崩溃，我们将迎来一次重置。”在华尔街对英伟达的狂热追捧中，一位分析师正在逆流而行...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757915\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757915","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2578682591","content_text":"Seaport Global分析师Jay Goldberg认为，当前英伟达的惊人增长，主要依赖于少数几家科技巨头的巨额资本支出。但巨额投入迄今为止所产生的实际回报非常有限。这种模式与科网泡沫时期的电信基础设施建设非常相似，“出于很大程度上的心理原因，我们将建起所有这些AI设施。在某个时候，支出将会停止，然后整个体系都会崩溃，我们将迎来一次重置。”在华尔街对英伟达的狂热追捧中，一位分析师正在逆流而行。在覆盖英伟达的80名分析师中，Seaport Global Securities分析师Jay Goldberg给出了唯一的“卖出”评级，并将目标价定在100美元。“围绕AI的所有炒作，我都持怀疑态度，” Goldberg在接受彭博采访时表示，“这不是我第一次看到泡沫。”他将当前的局面类比为2000年前后的科网泡沫，并警告称，一旦支撑高估值的巨额支出放缓，市场格局可能会迅速逆转。这一立场与市场的普遍乐观情绪形成鲜明对比，目前华尔街分析师的平均目标价约为220美元，预示着还有18%的上涨空间。历史重演？剑指科网泡沫在Goldberg看来，当前英伟达的惊人增长，主要依赖于少数几家科技巨头的巨额资本支出。微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta、甲骨文以及OpenAI这六家公司正在争相建设AI基础设施，它们的采购需求造就了英伟达高达4.5万亿美元的市值。2025年，这五家上市公司预计资本开支将接近4000亿美元，OpenAI也承诺投入逾1万亿美元。然而，Goldberg提醒投资者关注这些巨额投入迄今为止所产生的实际回报有多么有限。他认为，这种模式与科网泡沫时期的电信基础设施建设非常相似，当时思科等公司的股价因预期中的互联网流量而飙升，但当预期未能立即兑现时，股价便遭受重创。二十多年后，思科的股价仍未回到2000年的高点。Goldberg警告：我们现在看到的模式与当时的感觉非常相似。出于很大程度上的心理原因，我们将建起所有这些AI设施。在某个时候，支出将会停止，然后整个体系都会崩溃，我们将迎来一次重置。电力、杠杆与有限的上行空间除了历史对比，Goldberg还表示，既然市场观点认为英伟达的AI芯片已基本售罄，那么股价进一步上涨的空间来自哪里，这是一个疑问。“上行的驱动因素并不多”。Goldberg同时质疑为所有新建数据中心提供增量电力的来源尚未明确。此外，围绕数据中心开发的杠杆正在不断累积：当你追溯所有这些GPU的去向时，你会深入到“新云”（neoclouds）以及所有正在发生的电力和房地产交易的细节中。很容易想见，某个不起眼的公司倒下，就可能引发整个供应链的连锁反应。值得注意的是，Goldberg的“卖出”评级并非建议投资者做空该股。他明确表示自己钦佩英伟达及其首席执行官黄仁勋的领导力。在他看来，“卖出”意味着他预计该股的表现将逊于博通、高通和AMD等同行。华尔街对AI泡沫的担忧渐增尽管Jay Goldberg是唯一给出“卖出”评级的分析师，但他对AI泡沫的担忧情绪在华尔街并非个例。高盛首席执行官David Solomon最近就将当前的AI热潮与科网泡沫时期的狂热进行了比较。据美国银行最新的全球基金经理调查显示，认为AI股票存在泡沫的受访者比例创下历史新高。甚至OpenAI的首席执行官Sam Altman在被问及是否存在AI泡沫时，也给出了肯定的回答。这些声音都为Goldberg的逆向思维提供了一定程度的佐证。 Goldberg谈到他的看空评级时也表示：我没有收到任何一个人反驳我的论点。有人说我太早了……但没有人说我是个疯子。我想我们都看到了，AI领域存在一些过度繁荣的迹象，虽然英伟达是一家好公司，但它并非不朽。压倒性看涨：“现在仍是早期阶段”尽管Goldberg发出了泡沫警告，但华尔街的主流观点仍然坚定看涨。在80名覆盖英伟达的分析师中，有73人给予了相当于“买入”的评级，另有6人持“持有”看法。Clearstead Advisors的高级董事总经理Jim Awad表示：AI是一个持续多年的代际周期，我们还处于早期阶段，甚至还没到中期。英伟达是其中的重要参与者，它正在为经济和股市提供动力。”该公司持有英伟达股票。Harding Loevner LP的投资组合经理Moon Surana也表达了类似看法，他认为现在仍处于投资阶段的早期，目前还没有出现产能过剩的迹象，没有任何GPU处于闲置状态。市场上最乐观的分析师是汇丰银行的Frank Lee，他最近将英伟达的评级上调至“买入”，目标价高达320美元，理由是AI加速器的市场需求将超越目前最大的几家客户。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":490238927282904,"gmtCreate":1760714518086,"gmtModify":1760716069467,"author":{"id":"4121237239794890","authorId":"4121237239794890","name":"Monkey D luffy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/031a1e6e44c82b59d1b23f1834926953","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121237239794890","authorIdStr":"4121237239794890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那为什么今天跌成屎了","listText":"那为什么今天跌成屎了","text":"那为什么今天跌成屎了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/490238927282904","repostId":"2576775464","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2576775464","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1760647634,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2576775464?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-17 04:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"甲骨文披露订单已超5000亿美元，预期AI基建毛利率可达35%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2576775464","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"甲骨文在拉斯维加斯年度投资者大会上举例说明，一个为期六年、总收入600亿美元的AI基础设施项目，毛利率可达35%。甲骨文公司首次披露大型AI基础设施项目的利润率预期，缓解了投资者对这项关键新业务盈利能力的担忧。此外甲骨文指出现在剩余履约义务超过5000亿美元，并预计到2030财年营收将达到2250亿美元。在截至今年8月末的2026财年第一财季，甲骨文云业务总收入72亿美元，同比增长28%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>甲骨文在拉斯维加斯年度投资者大会上举例说明，一个为期六年、总收入600亿美元的AI基础设施项目，毛利率可达35%。此外甲骨文指出现在剩余履约义务（RPO）超过5000亿美元，并预计到2030财年营收将达到2250亿美元。市场对AI基础设施业务盈利能力的信心增强，甲骨文股价收涨超3%，盘中一度上涨近6%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文公司首次披露大型AI基础设施项目的利润率预期，缓解了投资者对这项关键新业务盈利能力的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">10月16日，甲骨文在拉斯维加斯年度投资者大会上以具体案例说明了AI基础设施业务的盈利前景。<strong>一个为期六年、总收入600亿美元的AI基础设施项目，毛利率可达35%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>此外甲骨文指出现在剩余履约义务（RPO）超过5000亿美元，并预计到2030财年营收将达到2250亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，尽管甲骨文与OpenAI、Meta和马斯克旗下xAI等客户签署了大量AI数据中心开发协议，提振了公司估值，但华尔街一直质疑此类业务的盈利性。华尔街上周曾提及，甲骨文部分AI云服务的毛利率仅为14%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博行业研究分析师Anurag Rana表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">新披露的数据有助于平息对盈利能力较低的担忧。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一数据披露后，市场对AI基础设施业务盈利能力的信心增强，甲骨文股价收涨超3%，盘中一度上涨近6%，同时也带动同行业公司CoreWeave股价上扬。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11668227fe322015488ddabb98ca618b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"26beafb8\">财报业绩强劲但此前市场存疑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文第一财季业绩强劲，但备受关注的云业务上周被爆利润率逊色，因租用英伟达的先进芯片而面临盈利压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文上月公布的财报显示强劲的增长动能。在截至今年8月末的2026财年第一财季，甲骨文云业务总收入72亿美元，同比增长28%。当季云基础设施（OCI）业务收入33亿美元，同比增长55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最令市场瞩目的是，<strong>当时甲骨文公布第一财季的剩余履约义务（RPO）、即积压订单价值同比激增359%，增至4550亿美元。</strong>这主要受益于与OpenAI等AI公司签署的大额长期合同。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但是上周二据媒体报道，甲骨文AI云业务在过去一年中面临多重财务压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在截至8月末的公司上一财季，甲骨文的服务器租赁录得收入9亿美元、毛利1.25亿美元，<strong>相当于每1美元销售额获得0.14美元利润，即毛利率14%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这低于许多非科技零售企业的毛利率，而且远低于甲骨文传统软件业务约70%的整体毛利率。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据报道在某些情况下，甲骨文因小批量租赁英伟达新旧版本的芯片而录得“相当多”的亏损，<strong>比如上一财季就因租赁英伟达的新版Blackwell架构芯片而亏损近1亿美元。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>甲骨文披露订单已超5000亿美元，预期AI基建毛利率可达35%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文披露订单已超5000亿美元，预期AI基建毛利率可达35%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-17 04:47 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757338><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>甲骨文在拉斯维加斯年度投资者大会上举例说明，一个为期六年、总收入600亿美元的AI基础设施项目，毛利率可达35%。此外甲骨文指出现在剩余履约义务（RPO）超过5000亿美元，并预计到2030财年营收将达到2250亿美元。市场对AI基础设施业务盈利能力的信心增强，甲骨文股价收涨超3%，盘中一度上涨近6%。甲骨文公司首次披露大型AI基础设施项目的利润率预期，缓解了投资者对这项关键新业务盈利能力的担忧。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757338\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c35c8a27605936ee42c5dc8842ec36a","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757338","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2576775464","content_text":"甲骨文在拉斯维加斯年度投资者大会上举例说明，一个为期六年、总收入600亿美元的AI基础设施项目，毛利率可达35%。此外甲骨文指出现在剩余履约义务（RPO）超过5000亿美元，并预计到2030财年营收将达到2250亿美元。市场对AI基础设施业务盈利能力的信心增强，甲骨文股价收涨超3%，盘中一度上涨近6%。甲骨文公司首次披露大型AI基础设施项目的利润率预期，缓解了投资者对这项关键新业务盈利能力的担忧。10月16日，甲骨文在拉斯维加斯年度投资者大会上以具体案例说明了AI基础设施业务的盈利前景。一个为期六年、总收入600亿美元的AI基础设施项目，毛利率可达35%。此外甲骨文指出现在剩余履约义务（RPO）超过5000亿美元，并预计到2030财年营收将达到2250亿美元。此前，尽管甲骨文与OpenAI、Meta和马斯克旗下xAI等客户签署了大量AI数据中心开发协议，提振了公司估值，但华尔街一直质疑此类业务的盈利性。华尔街上周曾提及，甲骨文部分AI云服务的毛利率仅为14%。彭博行业研究分析师Anurag Rana表示：新披露的数据有助于平息对盈利能力较低的担忧。这一数据披露后，市场对AI基础设施业务盈利能力的信心增强，甲骨文股价收涨超3%，盘中一度上涨近6%，同时也带动同行业公司CoreWeave股价上扬。财报业绩强劲但此前市场存疑甲骨文第一财季业绩强劲，但备受关注的云业务上周被爆利润率逊色，因租用英伟达的先进芯片而面临盈利压力。甲骨文上月公布的财报显示强劲的增长动能。在截至今年8月末的2026财年第一财季，甲骨文云业务总收入72亿美元，同比增长28%。当季云基础设施（OCI）业务收入33亿美元，同比增长55%。最令市场瞩目的是，当时甲骨文公布第一财季的剩余履约义务（RPO）、即积压订单价值同比激增359%，增至4550亿美元。这主要受益于与OpenAI等AI公司签署的大额长期合同。但是上周二据媒体报道，甲骨文AI云业务在过去一年中面临多重财务压力。在截至8月末的公司上一财季，甲骨文的服务器租赁录得收入9亿美元、毛利1.25亿美元，相当于每1美元销售额获得0.14美元利润，即毛利率14%。这低于许多非科技零售企业的毛利率，而且远低于甲骨文传统软件业务约70%的整体毛利率。据报道在某些情况下，甲骨文因小批量租赁英伟达新旧版本的芯片而录得“相当多”的亏损，比如上一财季就因租赁英伟达的新版Blackwell架构芯片而亏损近1亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":490217442632040,"gmtCreate":1760709509226,"gmtModify":1760709510956,"author":{"id":"4121237239794890","authorId":"4121237239794890","name":"Monkey D 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http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>甲骨文公司债务现已超过5000亿美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文公司债务现已超过5000亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-17 04:22 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251017043736a6bd9154&s=b><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>甲骨文 公司债务现已超过5000亿美元。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251017043736a6bd9154&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0476273544.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"BU\" (USD) ACC","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE 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涨啊，我不想接盘！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/486894357492608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493359761462174","authorId":"3493359761462174","name":"GLA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070ae2a9e1ce414b25abe707f0cf9f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493359761462174","authorIdStr":"3493359761462174"},"content":"这么好的股票，怎么会接盘呢？一个月之后翻倍信不","text":"这么好的股票，怎么会接盘呢？一个月之后翻倍信不","html":"这么好的股票，怎么会接盘呢？一个月之后翻倍信不"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":486690457722944,"gmtCreate":1759849977097,"gmtModify":1759852614212,"author":{"id":"4121237239794890","authorId":"4121237239794890","name":"Monkey D 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23:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"甲骨文租赁英伟达芯片服务器的毛利率在过去一年平均约为16%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135030748","media":"美股速递","summary":"甲骨文租赁英伟达芯片服务器的毛利率在过去一年平均约为16%。","content":"<p>甲骨文租赁英伟达芯片服务器的毛利率在过去一年平均约为16%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>甲骨文租赁英伟达芯片服务器的毛利率在过去一年平均约为16%</title>\n<style 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23:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>甲骨文租赁英伟达芯片服务器的毛利率在过去一年平均约为16%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2491050154.USD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0342679015.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL EQUITY UNCONSTRAINED \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU2461242641.AUD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"A2\" (EUR) ACC A","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME 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Inc.股价大幅上涨5.05%，引发市场关注。这一大规模合作凸显了CoreWeave在快速增长的AI市场中的关键地位。值得注意的是，CoreWeave不仅与Meta建立了合作关系，还与其他科技巨头保持密切联系。此外，CoreWeave还与支持者英伟达签署了价值63亿美元的初始订单，这些交易进一步巩固了公司在AI基础设施市场的地位。","content":"<p>周一盘中，人工智能基础设施提供商CoreWeave, Inc.（股票代码：CRWV）股价大幅上涨5.05%，引发市场关注。</p>\n\n<p>此次股价上涨主要得益于CoreWeave在人工智能基础设施领域的强劲表现。最新消息显示，该公司与社交媒体巨头Meta签署了一项价值140亿美元的重大协议，为Facebook母公司提供计算能力。这一大规模合作凸显了CoreWeave在快速增长的AI市场中的关键地位。</p>\n\n<p>值得注意的是，CoreWeave不仅与Meta建立了合作关系，还与其他科技巨头保持密切联系。今年3月，公司与OpenAI签订了一份为期5年、价值119亿美元的合同。此外，CoreWeave还与支持者英伟达签署了价值63亿美元的初始订单，这些交易进一步巩固了公司在AI基础设施市场的地位。随着人工智能技术的快速发展和应用范围的不断扩大，CoreWeave作为核心基础设施提供商的价值日益凸显，这也解释了投资者对该公司股票的热情。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读 | 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22:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周一盘中，人工智能基础设施提供商CoreWeave, Inc.（股票代码：CRWV）股价大幅上涨5.05%，引发市场关注。</p>\n\n<p>此次股价上涨主要得益于CoreWeave在人工智能基础设施领域的强劲表现。最新消息显示，该公司与社交媒体巨头Meta签署了一项价值140亿美元的重大协议，为Facebook母公司提供计算能力。这一大规模合作凸显了CoreWeave在快速增长的AI市场中的关键地位。</p>\n\n<p>值得注意的是，CoreWeave不仅与Meta建立了合作关系，还与其他科技巨头保持密切联系。今年3月，公司与OpenAI签订了一份为期5年、价值119亿美元的合同。此外，CoreWeave还与支持者英伟达签署了价值63亿美元的初始订单，这些交易进一步巩固了公司在AI基础设施市场的地位。随着人工智能技术的快速发展和应用范围的不断扩大，CoreWeave作为核心基础设施提供商的价值日益凸显，这也解释了投资者对该公司股票的热情。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWV":"CoreWeave, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177135918","content_text":"周一盘中，人工智能基础设施提供商CoreWeave, Inc.（股票代码：CRWV）股价大幅上涨5.05%，引发市场关注。\n此次股价上涨主要得益于CoreWeave在人工智能基础设施领域的强劲表现。最新消息显示，该公司与社交媒体巨头Meta签署了一项价值140亿美元的重大协议，为Facebook母公司提供计算能力。这一大规模合作凸显了CoreWeave在快速增长的AI市场中的关键地位。\n值得注意的是，CoreWeave不仅与Meta建立了合作关系，还与其他科技巨头保持密切联系。今年3月，公司与OpenAI签订了一份为期5年、价值119亿美元的合同。此外，CoreWeave还与支持者英伟达签署了价值63亿美元的初始订单，这些交易进一步巩固了公司在AI基础设施市场的地位。随着人工智能技术的快速发展和应用范围的不断扩大，CoreWeave作为核心基础设施提供商的价值日益凸显，这也解释了投资者对该公司股票的热情。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRWV":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":484819832008840,"gmtCreate":1759414439182,"gmtModify":1759414442279,"author":{"id":"4121237239794890","authorId":"4121237239794890","name":"Monkey D luffy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/031a1e6e44c82b59d1b23f1834926953","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121237239794890","authorIdStr":"4121237239794890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a 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luffy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/031a1e6e44c82b59d1b23f1834926953","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121237239794890","authorIdStr":"4121237239794890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分析师都喜欢瞎放屁，上次我准备买甲骨文，分析师说甲骨文太依赖 openAi，不看好，我就没买，后来甲骨文涨了 30%，分析师当笑话听听得了","listText":"分析师都喜欢瞎放屁，上次我准备买甲骨文，分析师说甲骨文太依赖 openAi，不看好，我就没买，后来甲骨文涨了 30%，分析师当笑话听听得了","text":"分析师都喜欢瞎放屁，上次我准备买甲骨文，分析师说甲骨文太依赖 openAi，不看好，我就没买，后来甲骨文涨了 30%，分析师当笑话听听得了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/484197686514256","repostId":"2571007048","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2571007048","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1759139727,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2571007048?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-29 17:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股“泡沫警报”响起！三大趋势预示1999年狂欢前夜重现","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2571007048","media":"智通财经网","summary":"一场堪比互联网泡沫的危机正在悄然酝酿。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月29日，尽管就业和房地产市场出现了越来越多的不利迹象，但美国主要股指仍持续上涨。整体经济增长似乎依然强劲。但分析师警告称，一场堪比互联网泡沫的危机正在悄然酝酿。</p><p>美国经济和股市受到巨额且不可持续的财政赤字支出以及人工智能支出爆炸式增长的推动。</p><p>包括亿万富翁基金经理大卫·艾因霍恩在内的人士开始担忧巨额人工智能投资是否会带来回报。《哈佛商业评论》最近也发表了一项研究，对人工智能是否能真正提高生产力提出了质疑。</p><p>在Seeking Alpha撰稿人Bret Jensen看来，当前的经济/市场形势越来越像1999年的情景，也就是2000年初互联网泡沫破裂前的那段时间。</p><p>Jensen强调，当前市场/经济中的三个关键趋势与1999年互联网繁荣末期情况惊人地相似。</p><p><strong>1.估值已变得"疯狂"</strong></p><p>高估值或许是这两个时期最明显的相似之处。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>信息技术板块的预期市销率达到8.8倍。这远高于互联网繁荣末期的水平，也是有史以来的最高水平。</p><p>标普500信息技术板块的预期市销率</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ffaf1bdc4807b4aae53f0a2ee646bc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\"/></p><p>席勒市盈率接近40，这在历史上仅出现过两次，目前略低于1999年达到的水平。据悉，“席勒市盈率”，即周期调整市盈率(CAPE)，剔除通胀因素后用10年的平均盈利来计算市盈率，可以平滑经济周期对估值的影响。过往数据显示，美股CAPE超过25倍就进入“非理性繁荣”的疯狂期。</p><p>席勒市盈率接近40</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68e63da95b846d05d263d250f7157867\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"373\"/></p><p>另外，股票市值和GDP之比达到历史高位，这一比率也被称为“巴菲特指标”，衡量整个市场的超买程度。</p><p>巴菲特指标达创纪录高位</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce7ffa8cc62c35bb79de217f9865f27f\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"529\"/></p><p><strong>2.“供应商融资”回归</strong></p><p>年长的投资者可能还记得“供应商融资”曾迅猛增长。在这种模式中，像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>(CSCO.US)这样的供应商会在销售的同时，以优惠的条件为购买其设备的客户提供融资服务。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)上周宣布，将向OpenAI投资至多1000亿美元，助力这家ChatGPT母公司大规模建设搭载英伟达芯片的数据中心。</p><p>华尔街分析师对这笔交易看法不一。看涨者认为，这进一步证明了人工智能基础设施业务的蓬勃发展。而看跌者则认为，这只是英伟达在帮助一个资金匮乏的客户。</p><p>部分人士还表示，这笔“投资”似乎是换了个幌子的供应商融资。</p><p><strong>3.市场表现分化</strong></p><p>1999年末，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)是整个股市中价值最高的股票，其市值达到了约6000亿美元。这令人瞩目，但这一数值仅占当时法国年度GDP的约三分之一。</p><p>正如现在一样，互联网繁荣末期市场出现了明显的两极分化，市值排名前十的股票约占整个市场总价值的40%。唯一一家在25年前就位列前十的公司是微软。</p><p>然而，如今英伟达的市值略高于4.3万亿美元，远超英国(3.6万亿美元)和法国(略低于3.2万亿美元)的年度GDP。微软和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL.US)的市值也接近4.3万亿美元。Alphabet (GOOG.US,GOOGL.US)的市值为3万亿美元。</p><p>那么，这次会有所不同吗?</p><p>Seeking Alpha的Jensen表示，FOMO(投资错失恐惧症)、动量、算法交易程序和被动指数投资等因素共同作用，可以让股市在脱离合理估值后持续处于高位。然而，随着时间的推移，高估值难以持续。对于投资者而言，这次的情况并不会有所不同。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股“泡沫警报”响起！三大趋势预示1999年狂欢前夜重现</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股“泡沫警报”响起！三大趋势预示1999年狂欢前夜重现\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-29 17:55 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1350560.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月29日，尽管就业和房地产市场出现了越来越多的不利迹象，但美国主要股指仍持续上涨。整体经济增长似乎依然强劲。但分析师警告称，一场堪比互联网泡沫的危机正在悄然酝酿。美国经济和股市受到巨额且不可持续的财政赤字支出以及人工智能支出爆炸式增长的推动。包括亿万富翁基金经理大卫·艾因霍恩在内的人士开始担忧巨额人工智能投资是否会带来回报。《哈佛商业评论》最近也发表了一项研究，对人工智能是否能真正提高生产力提出...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1350560.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1350560.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2571007048","content_text":"9月29日，尽管就业和房地产市场出现了越来越多的不利迹象，但美国主要股指仍持续上涨。整体经济增长似乎依然强劲。但分析师警告称，一场堪比互联网泡沫的危机正在悄然酝酿。美国经济和股市受到巨额且不可持续的财政赤字支出以及人工智能支出爆炸式增长的推动。包括亿万富翁基金经理大卫·艾因霍恩在内的人士开始担忧巨额人工智能投资是否会带来回报。《哈佛商业评论》最近也发表了一项研究，对人工智能是否能真正提高生产力提出了质疑。在Seeking Alpha撰稿人Bret Jensen看来，当前的经济/市场形势越来越像1999年的情景，也就是2000年初互联网泡沫破裂前的那段时间。Jensen强调，当前市场/经济中的三个关键趋势与1999年互联网繁荣末期情况惊人地相似。1.估值已变得\"疯狂\"高估值或许是这两个时期最明显的相似之处。标普500信息技术板块的预期市销率达到8.8倍。这远高于互联网繁荣末期的水平，也是有史以来的最高水平。标普500信息技术板块的预期市销率席勒市盈率接近40，这在历史上仅出现过两次，目前略低于1999年达到的水平。据悉，“席勒市盈率”，即周期调整市盈率(CAPE)，剔除通胀因素后用10年的平均盈利来计算市盈率，可以平滑经济周期对估值的影响。过往数据显示，美股CAPE超过25倍就进入“非理性繁荣”的疯狂期。席勒市盈率接近40另外，股票市值和GDP之比达到历史高位，这一比率也被称为“巴菲特指标”，衡量整个市场的超买程度。巴菲特指标达创纪录高位2.“供应商融资”回归年长的投资者可能还记得“供应商融资”曾迅猛增长。在这种模式中，像思科(CSCO.US)这样的供应商会在销售的同时，以优惠的条件为购买其设备的客户提供融资服务。英伟达(NVDA.US)上周宣布，将向OpenAI投资至多1000亿美元，助力这家ChatGPT母公司大规模建设搭载英伟达芯片的数据中心。华尔街分析师对这笔交易看法不一。看涨者认为，这进一步证明了人工智能基础设施业务的蓬勃发展。而看跌者则认为，这只是英伟达在帮助一个资金匮乏的客户。部分人士还表示，这笔“投资”似乎是换了个幌子的供应商融资。3.市场表现分化1999年末，微软(MSFT.US)是整个股市中价值最高的股票，其市值达到了约6000亿美元。这令人瞩目，但这一数值仅占当时法国年度GDP的约三分之一。正如现在一样，互联网繁荣末期市场出现了明显的两极分化，市值排名前十的股票约占整个市场总价值的40%。唯一一家在25年前就位列前十的公司是微软。然而，如今英伟达的市值略高于4.3万亿美元，远超英国(3.6万亿美元)和法国(略低于3.2万亿美元)的年度GDP。微软和苹果(AAPL.US)的市值也接近4.3万亿美元。Alphabet (GOOG.US,GOOGL.US)的市值为3万亿美元。那么，这次会有所不同吗?Seeking Alpha的Jensen表示，FOMO(投资错失恐惧症)、动量、算法交易程序和被动指数投资等因素共同作用，可以让股市在脱离合理估值后持续处于高位。然而，随着时间的推移，高估值难以持续。对于投资者而言，这次的情况并不会有所不同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}