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显卡之王
显卡之王
·
06-06
$NVDA 20250703 115.0 PUT$
我是在作死
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显卡之王
显卡之王
·
06-03
$英伟达(NVDA)$
这次必破前高。
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4
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显卡之王
显卡之王
·
05-29
追涨杀跌，踏空怨妇回来了
财报前抢筹超3.4万股！木头姐旗下ARK ETF加仓英伟达
智通财经APP获悉，ARK Invest掌门人Cathie Wood周二进行增持操作，在英伟达公布财报前夕大举买入34,543股芯片巨头股票。具体来看，其旗舰产品ARK创新ETF增持21,504股，ARK下一代互联网ETF买入13,039股。此次操作使英伟达在ARKK的持仓排名上升至第29位，在ARKW的持仓位次提升至第24位。当前持仓数据显示，尽管英伟达尚未进入ARKK前十大重仓股，但本次加仓后其权重排名较一季度末已显著提升。
财报前抢筹超3.4万股！木头姐旗下ARK ETF加仓英伟达
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显卡之王
显卡之王
·
05-29
$NVDL 20250620 60.0 CALL$
血亏退场。。。快撑不住了。。。
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显卡之王
显卡之王
·
05-28
$英伟达(NVDA)$
保底六万亿美金市值。
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显卡之王
显卡之王
·
05-27
$TIGR 20250620 10.0 CALL$
瑟瑟发抖中[流泪] [流泪]
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显卡之王
显卡之王
·
05-22
别吹了。
财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键
Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。总结综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 "硬件放量" 转向 "软硬协同"。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。
财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键
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显卡之王
显卡之王
·
04-24
来得及，今年 5000 肯定能达到。
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显卡之王
显卡之王
·
02-19
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
泡沫化
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显卡之王
显卡之王
·
02-10
跳梁小丑，哗众取宠
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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13:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前抢筹超3.4万股！木头姐旗下ARK ETF加仓英伟达","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2539280220","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，ARK Invest掌门人Cathie Wood周二进行增持操作，在英伟达公布财报前夕大举买入34,543股芯片巨头股票。具体来看，其旗舰产品ARK创新ETF增持21,504股，ARK下一代互联网ETF买入13,039股。此次操作使英伟达在ARKK的持仓排名上升至第29位，在ARKW的持仓位次提升至第24位。当前持仓数据显示，尽管英伟达尚未进入ARKK前十大重仓股，但本次加仓后其权重排名较一季度末已显著提升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月29日，ARK Invest掌门人Cathie Wood周二进行增持操作，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>公布财报前夕大举买入34,543股芯片巨头股票。具体来看，其旗舰产品ARK创新ETF(ARKK.US)增持21,504股，ARK下一代互联网ETF(ARKW.US)买入13,039股。此次操作使英伟达在ARKK的持仓排名上升至第29位，在ARKW的持仓位次提升至第24位。</p><p>值得关注的是，本次加仓时机与ARKK过往操作形成鲜明对比：自2022年11月以来，该基金对英伟达的十次交易中有八次为卖出操作，仅有的两次买入分别发生在本周二及5月7日(当日买入64,838股)。类似模式也出现在ARKW的交易记录中——过去十笔交易中八次减持，仅有的两次增持分别为本周二及5月7日的19,645股买入。</p><p>作为2024年人工智能行情的核心标的，英伟达本周三盘后将披露最新财报。Cathie Wood此次"打破常规"的加仓动作，恰逢市场聚焦芯片巨头业绩指引的关键节点。ARK Invest通过两只主动管理型ETF同步增持，既延续了其5月以来对英伟达的谨慎看多态度，也标志着这家以"颠覆性创新"投资闻名的机构，可能正在调整对AI龙头股的持仓策略。</p><p>当前持仓数据显示，尽管英伟达尚未进入ARKK前十大重仓股，但本次加仓后其权重排名较一季度末已显著提升。在AI算力需求持续爆发的产业背景下，这家全球市值第三的芯片巨头即将交出的成绩单，或将直接影响ARK Invest后续的调仓节奏。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前抢筹超3.4万股！木头姐旗下ARK ETF加仓英伟达</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前抢筹超3.4万股！木头姐旗下ARK ETF加仓英伟达\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-29 13:06 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1299010.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月29日，ARK Invest掌门人Cathie Wood周二进行增持操作，在英伟达公布财报前夕大举买入34,543股芯片巨头股票。具体来看，其旗舰产品ARK创新ETF(ARKK.US)增持21,504股，ARK下一代互联网ETF(ARKW.US)买入13,039股。此次操作使英伟达在ARKK的持仓排名上升至第29位，在ARKW的持仓位次提升至第24位。值得关注的是，本次加仓时机与ARKK过往...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1299010.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb0479ff67cd3a760cdce353bcb60ed","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1299010.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2539280220","content_text":"5月29日，ARK Invest掌门人Cathie Wood周二进行增持操作，在英伟达公布财报前夕大举买入34,543股芯片巨头股票。具体来看，其旗舰产品ARK创新ETF(ARKK.US)增持21,504股，ARK下一代互联网ETF(ARKW.US)买入13,039股。此次操作使英伟达在ARKK的持仓排名上升至第29位，在ARKW的持仓位次提升至第24位。值得关注的是，本次加仓时机与ARKK过往操作形成鲜明对比：自2022年11月以来，该基金对英伟达的十次交易中有八次为卖出操作，仅有的两次买入分别发生在本周二及5月7日(当日买入64,838股)。类似模式也出现在ARKW的交易记录中——过去十笔交易中八次减持，仅有的两次增持分别为本周二及5月7日的19,645股买入。作为2024年人工智能行情的核心标的，英伟达本周三盘后将披露最新财报。Cathie Wood此次\"打破常规\"的加仓动作，恰逢市场聚焦芯片巨头业绩指引的关键节点。ARK 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[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31a547a00415c90203f95df6ff5baa45","width":"618","height":"1066"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/439618478305552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437825410966240,"gmtCreate":1747926048664,"gmtModify":1747926049841,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173149581503700","authorIdStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别吹了。","listText":"别吹了。","text":"别吹了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437825410966240","repostId":"1199021275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199021275","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1747996740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199021275?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-23 18:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199021275","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。总结综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 \"硬件放量\" 转向 \"软硬协同\"。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1941147329\">摘要</h2><p>Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。根据彭博社的一致预期，英伟达Q1营收预计为432.74亿美元，同比增长 66%，调整后净利润为222.6亿美元，调整后EPS为0.886美元。主要依赖 Blackwell 架构 GPU 量产及 H200 交付量提升，头部云厂商订单占比 55%。受台积电封装良率影响，毛利率预计降至 69.65%（上季度 73%），研发投入增至 40.7 亿美元（同比 + 49%），重点投向 Blackwell Ultra 架构。FY25Q4 营收 393 亿美元（同比 + 78%），数据中心业务占 86%，但 HBM 出口限制导致 15% 订单延迟。越南测试产线 Q2 末投产后，预计降低封装成本 10%-15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f1f26d003e3e7ab0add1f58d3403a4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1526\" tg-height=\"218\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1771872495\">市场预测</h2><p>根据英伟达投资者网站披露，公司预计FY26Q1营收为430亿美元（±2%），同比增幅达66%。该预测基于Blackwell架构GPU的量产进度及H200交付量的爬坡，其中微软、谷歌等头部云厂商的订单占比达55%。毛利率预计降至69.65%（上季度73%），主因马来西亚封装测试环节关税成本上升及台积电CoWoS-L封装工艺的良率爬坡压力。研发同比增长49%至40.7亿美元，主要用于Blackwell Ultra架构的研发投入（占研发预算60%）。</p><h2 id=\"id_3203938694\">上季度回顾</h2><p>2024 年四季度收入为 393 亿美元，同比增长 78%，环比增长 12%，超越彭博一致预期（382 亿美元）；GAAP 毛利率为 73%，符合彭博一致预期；净利润为 221 亿美元，超越彭博一致预期（198 亿美元），GAAP 净利润率为 56.2%；GAAP每股收益为 0.89 美元，同比增长 82%，环比增长 14%。管理层在电话会议中透露，越南测试产线将于Q2末投产，预计降低封装环节10%-15%成本。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabf4c5954f1b34b80ab9e905fdbcbbc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1530\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2259532674\">本季度展望</h2><h4 id=\"id_1495851561\">数据中心业务：结构性增长与客户集中度风险并存</h4><p>尽管全球云计算资本开支增速放缓至18%（IDC），但AI算力投资占比提升至35%，驱动英伟达GPU需求升高。本季度微软、谷歌H200采购量环比增长40%，但中小云服务商因融资成本上升削减订单，前五大客户集中度攀升至58%（同比+15pct）。高盛指出，TOP10云厂商2025年AI资本开支达1420亿美元，其中65%流向GPU采购，但头部化趋势可能导致英伟达议价权边际弱化。此外，AMD MI300X推理性能较H100提升30%，或分流20%推理市场份额。</p><h4 id=\"id_4036667996\">供应链韧性测试：产能转移与关税成本传导</h4><p>美国对全球尤其是亚洲半导体关税大幅升高，将直接影响马来西亚封装环节成本结构。目前英伟达采取三阶段应对：1）将H20芯片流片转移至台积电台湾厂区，规避原产地规则；2）与日月光合作开发Chiplet封装，晶圆损耗率从8%降至4.5%；3）越南测试产线首批设备已调试完成，预计Q2末量产。然而，过渡期H100交付周期延长至12周，部分客户转向AMD MI300X或谷歌TPU v5（供应链调研显示替代率约7%）。</p><h4 id=\"id_1264992437\">定价权博弈：技术溢价与商业条款再平衡</h4><p>Blackwell架构GPU量产推动产品均价提升15%，但客户采购策略趋严。亚马逊AWS最新合同显示，30%采购量附加“性能对赌条款”——若实际算力效率低于宣传值10%，英伟达需返还货款的5%-8%。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。此外，NVIDIA AI Enterprise软件订阅服务贡献营收占比升至8%，有望缓解硬件毛利率压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_1990478644\">总结</h2><p>综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 "硬件放量" 转向 "软硬协同"。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。若 Blackwell Ultra 架构能如期在 2025 年下半年推出并实现 40 倍推理性能提升，叠加越南产线降本效应释放，或可缓解当前压力；但若替代品威胁持续扩大或地缘政策进一步收紧，其市场份额与盈利能力将面临更严峻考验。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-23 18:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1941147329\">摘要</h2><p>Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。根据彭博社的一致预期，英伟达Q1营收预计为432.74亿美元，同比增长 66%，调整后净利润为222.6亿美元，调整后EPS为0.886美元。主要依赖 Blackwell 架构 GPU 量产及 H200 交付量提升，头部云厂商订单占比 55%。受台积电封装良率影响，毛利率预计降至 69.65%（上季度 73%），研发投入增至 40.7 亿美元（同比 + 49%），重点投向 Blackwell Ultra 架构。FY25Q4 营收 393 亿美元（同比 + 78%），数据中心业务占 86%，但 HBM 出口限制导致 15% 订单延迟。越南测试产线 Q2 末投产后，预计降低封装成本 10%-15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f1f26d003e3e7ab0add1f58d3403a4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1526\" tg-height=\"218\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1771872495\">市场预测</h2><p>根据英伟达投资者网站披露，公司预计FY26Q1营收为430亿美元（±2%），同比增幅达66%。该预测基于Blackwell架构GPU的量产进度及H200交付量的爬坡，其中微软、谷歌等头部云厂商的订单占比达55%。毛利率预计降至69.65%（上季度73%），主因马来西亚封装测试环节关税成本上升及台积电CoWoS-L封装工艺的良率爬坡压力。研发同比增长49%至40.7亿美元，主要用于Blackwell Ultra架构的研发投入（占研发预算60%）。</p><h2 id=\"id_3203938694\">上季度回顾</h2><p>2024 年四季度收入为 393 亿美元，同比增长 78%，环比增长 12%，超越彭博一致预期（382 亿美元）；GAAP 毛利率为 73%，符合彭博一致预期；净利润为 221 亿美元，超越彭博一致预期（198 亿美元），GAAP 净利润率为 56.2%；GAAP每股收益为 0.89 美元，同比增长 82%，环比增长 14%。管理层在电话会议中透露，越南测试产线将于Q2末投产，预计降低封装环节10%-15%成本。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabf4c5954f1b34b80ab9e905fdbcbbc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1530\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2259532674\">本季度展望</h2><h4 id=\"id_1495851561\">数据中心业务：结构性增长与客户集中度风险并存</h4><p>尽管全球云计算资本开支增速放缓至18%（IDC），但AI算力投资占比提升至35%，驱动英伟达GPU需求升高。本季度微软、谷歌H200采购量环比增长40%，但中小云服务商因融资成本上升削减订单，前五大客户集中度攀升至58%（同比+15pct）。高盛指出，TOP10云厂商2025年AI资本开支达1420亿美元，其中65%流向GPU采购，但头部化趋势可能导致英伟达议价权边际弱化。此外，AMD MI300X推理性能较H100提升30%，或分流20%推理市场份额。</p><h4 id=\"id_4036667996\">供应链韧性测试：产能转移与关税成本传导</h4><p>美国对全球尤其是亚洲半导体关税大幅升高，将直接影响马来西亚封装环节成本结构。目前英伟达采取三阶段应对：1）将H20芯片流片转移至台积电台湾厂区，规避原产地规则；2）与日月光合作开发Chiplet封装，晶圆损耗率从8%降至4.5%；3）越南测试产线首批设备已调试完成，预计Q2末量产。然而，过渡期H100交付周期延长至12周，部分客户转向AMD MI300X或谷歌TPU v5（供应链调研显示替代率约7%）。</p><h4 id=\"id_1264992437\">定价权博弈：技术溢价与商业条款再平衡</h4><p>Blackwell架构GPU量产推动产品均价提升15%，但客户采购策略趋严。亚马逊AWS最新合同显示，30%采购量附加“性能对赌条款”——若实际算力效率低于宣传值10%，英伟达需返还货款的5%-8%。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。此外，NVIDIA AI Enterprise软件订阅服务贡献营收占比升至8%，有望缓解硬件毛利率压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_1990478644\">总结</h2><p>综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 "硬件放量" 转向 "软硬协同"。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。若 Blackwell Ultra 架构能如期在 2025 年下半年推出并实现 40 倍推理性能提升，叠加越南产线降本效应释放，或可缓解当前压力；但若替代品威胁持续扩大或地缘政策进一步收紧，其市场份额与盈利能力将面临更严峻考验。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d00325b3cb3f8302fe4544d2a072ea9","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199021275","content_text":"摘要Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。根据彭博社的一致预期，英伟达Q1营收预计为432.74亿美元，同比增长 66%，调整后净利润为222.6亿美元，调整后EPS为0.886美元。主要依赖 Blackwell 架构 GPU 量产及 H200 交付量提升，头部云厂商订单占比 55%。受台积电封装良率影响，毛利率预计降至 69.65%（上季度 73%），研发投入增至 40.7 亿美元（同比 + 49%），重点投向 Blackwell Ultra 架构。FY25Q4 营收 393 亿美元（同比 + 78%），数据中心业务占 86%，但 HBM 出口限制导致 15% 订单延迟。越南测试产线 Q2 末投产后，预计降低封装成本 10%-15%。市场预测根据英伟达投资者网站披露，公司预计FY26Q1营收为430亿美元（±2%），同比增幅达66%。该预测基于Blackwell架构GPU的量产进度及H200交付量的爬坡，其中微软、谷歌等头部云厂商的订单占比达55%。毛利率预计降至69.65%（上季度73%），主因马来西亚封装测试环节关税成本上升及台积电CoWoS-L封装工艺的良率爬坡压力。研发同比增长49%至40.7亿美元，主要用于Blackwell Ultra架构的研发投入（占研发预算60%）。上季度回顾2024 年四季度收入为 393 亿美元，同比增长 78%，环比增长 12%，超越彭博一致预期（382 亿美元）；GAAP 毛利率为 73%，符合彭博一致预期；净利润为 221 亿美元，超越彭博一致预期（198 亿美元），GAAP 净利润率为 56.2%；GAAP每股收益为 0.89 美元，同比增长 82%，环比增长 14%。管理层在电话会议中透露，越南测试产线将于Q2末投产，预计降低封装环节10%-15%成本。本季度展望数据中心业务：结构性增长与客户集中度风险并存尽管全球云计算资本开支增速放缓至18%（IDC），但AI算力投资占比提升至35%，驱动英伟达GPU需求升高。本季度微软、谷歌H200采购量环比增长40%，但中小云服务商因融资成本上升削减订单，前五大客户集中度攀升至58%（同比+15pct）。高盛指出，TOP10云厂商2025年AI资本开支达1420亿美元，其中65%流向GPU采购，但头部化趋势可能导致英伟达议价权边际弱化。此外，AMD MI300X推理性能较H100提升30%，或分流20%推理市场份额。供应链韧性测试：产能转移与关税成本传导美国对全球尤其是亚洲半导体关税大幅升高，将直接影响马来西亚封装环节成本结构。目前英伟达采取三阶段应对：1）将H20芯片流片转移至台积电台湾厂区，规避原产地规则；2）与日月光合作开发Chiplet封装，晶圆损耗率从8%降至4.5%；3）越南测试产线首批设备已调试完成，预计Q2末量产。然而，过渡期H100交付周期延长至12周，部分客户转向AMD MI300X或谷歌TPU v5（供应链调研显示替代率约7%）。定价权博弈：技术溢价与商业条款再平衡Blackwell架构GPU量产推动产品均价提升15%，但客户采购策略趋严。亚马逊AWS最新合同显示，30%采购量附加“性能对赌条款”——若实际算力效率低于宣传值10%，英伟达需返还货款的5%-8%。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。此外，NVIDIA AI Enterprise软件订阅服务贡献营收占比升至8%，有望缓解硬件毛利率压力。总结综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 \"硬件放量\" 转向 \"软硬协同\"。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。若 Blackwell Ultra 架构能如期在 2025 年下半年推出并实现 40 倍推理性能提升，叠加越南产线降本效应释放，或可缓解当前压力；但若替代品威胁持续扩大或地缘政策进一步收紧，其市场份额与盈利能力将面临更严峻考验。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":427949356990592,"gmtCreate":1745500563098,"gmtModify":1745500564448,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173149581503700","authorIdStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"来得及，今年 5000 肯定能达到。","listText":"来得及，今年 5000 肯定能达到。","text":"来得及，今年 5000 肯定能达到。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/427949356990592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405238119203448,"gmtCreate":1739959544947,"gmtModify":1739959546539,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173149581503700","authorIdStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 泡沫化","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 泡沫化","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 泡沫化","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405238119203448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":402159501738224,"gmtCreate":1739201576140,"gmtModify":1739202540845,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4173149581503700","authorIdStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"跳梁小丑，哗众取宠","listText":"跳梁小丑，哗众取宠","text":"跳梁小丑，哗众取宠","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/402159501738224","repostId":"1177729320","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}