个人中心 - 老虎社区

炒股要戒贪嗔痴

IP属地：浙江

帖子 · 1帖子 · 1
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- 炒股要戒贪嗔痴炒股要戒贪嗔痴
  ·2025-12-08
  危险了
  华尔街最乐观预测来了，奥本海默：标普500明年将涨到8100点
  逻辑基于美国经济韧性与企业盈利增长。
  华尔街最乐观预测来了，奥本海默：标普500明年将涨到8100点
  828 评论
  1
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"4197596797801262","uuid":"4197596797801262","gmtCreate":1734495925247,"gmtModify":1760334950225,"name":"炒股要戒贪嗔痴","pinyin":"cgyjtccchaoguyaojietanchenchi","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":52,"tweetSize":1,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":1,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.05.03","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.11","exceedPercentage":"93.86%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.11","exceedPercentage":"93.43%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc-1","templateUuid":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc","name":"知识体验官","description":"观看学堂课程满5节","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.25","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"浙江","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":31,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":508616151306264,"gmtCreate":1765205308329,"gmtModify":1765205792997,"author":{"id":"4197596797801262","authorId":"4197596797801262","name":"炒股要戒贪嗔痴","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4197596797801262","idStr":"4197596797801262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"危险了","listText":"危险了","text":"危险了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/508616151306264","repostId":"1124249207","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124249207","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765201231,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124249207?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-08 21:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街最乐观预测来了，奥本海默：标普500明年将涨到8100点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124249207","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"逻辑基于美国经济韧性与企业盈利增长。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>华尔街对美股的看多情绪创下新高，奥本海默（Oppenheimer Asset Management）给出了目前华尔街最激进的预测。该公司首席投资策略师John Stoltzfus预计，<strong>受企业盈利强劲增长和美国经济韧性的推动，标普500指数将在2026年进一步攀升至8100点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据彭博汇总的数据显示，Stoltzfus设定的这一目标位意味着标普500指数将在当前水平上再上涨18%，<strong>在所有受访策略师的预测中位列第一。</strong>该团队指出，乐观预期主要基于美国经济数据的持续韧性，以及标普500成分股企业在今年大部分时间内的业绩表现均超出预期，预计明年企业盈利增幅将达到12%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，市场短期内也面临由于预期兑现而引发的波动风险。<strong>摩根大通策略师警告称，鉴于市场对美联储本周降息的预期已达到92%并被充分计价，近期的股市涨势可能会陷入停滞。</strong>投资者或倾向于在年底前锁定收益，而非在政策落地时继续增加风险敞口，这意味着短期股市可能缺乏进一步上涨的催化剂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管短期博弈加剧，但机构对明年市场的整体信心依然稳固。据一项针对亚洲、欧洲和华尔街资产管理机构的非正式调查显示，超过四分之三的受访者表示正在为2026年的风险偏好环境配置投资组合。这一趋势表明，尽管存在对短期回调的担忧，甚至美国劳动力市场信号混杂，但投资者仍普遍看好美股在更广泛宏观环境支持下的中期走势。</p><h2 id=\"id_4260935475\" style=\"text-align: start;\">华尔街最乐观的目标位</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Oppenheimer团队的报告大大提振了市场的多头氛围。目前，华尔街策略师对2026年底标普500指数的目标均值为7315点，而上周五该指数收盘于6870点。John Stoltzfus给出的8100点目标显著高于均值，突显了其对基本面的强烈信心。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e2cad179322fd6ee6639d4e47a0c414\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该团队强调，支撑这一乐观预测的核心在于每股收益（EPS）将持续保持两位数增长。Oppenheimer预计，随着美国经济表现出强于预期的韧性，企业盈利能力将进一步修复，明年整体盈利增幅有望达到12%。这种由业绩驱动的上涨逻辑，被视为支撑估值扩张的关键因素。</p><h2 id=\"id_532382801\" style=\"text-align: start;\">短期回调风险与获利了结</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在乐观的中期展望之外，部分大型投行对短期市场节奏发出了预警。由Mislav Matejka领导的摩根大通策略师团队在报告中指出，过去数周决策者的鸽派表态已推动降息预期稳步上升，并带动股市重返高位。<strong>目前市场对美联储周四降息的定价已接近完全确定，这种高度一致的预期往往伴随着“买预期、卖事实”的风险。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Matejka团队认为，降息预期已完全反映在当前价格中。面对年底的时间节点，投资者面临时机选择：是兑现累积的涨幅，还是继续加码。摩根大通倾向认为，投资者届时可能选择锁定收益，而非增加方向性风险敞口，这可能导致近期涨势停滞。值得注意的是，Matejka曾在美联储9月降息前发出过类似警告，随后的市场波动验证了其预判，这为其最新的谨慎观点增添了分量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管提示了短期调整风险，摩根大通对股市的中期前景仍保持看涨立场。<strong>Matejka在报告中分析称，鸽派的美联储将继续为股市提供流动性支撑。</strong>与此同时，油价低迷、工资增长放缓以及美国关税压力的缓和，共同构成了一个有利的宏观组合，使美联储能够在不引发通胀反弹的情况下放松货币政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，报告还列举了支撑2026年股市的关键驱动力，包括贸易不确定性的降低、欧元区财政支出的增加，以及人工智能在美国的快速推广应用。这些结构性因素被认为将抵消短期宏观数据的扰动，支持股市在中期内延续升势。市场调查也佐证了这一观点，尽管劳动力市场信号混杂且2026年政策路径尚存不确定性，但全球资产管理机构仍在大举布局明年的风险资产。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街最乐观预测来了，奥本海默：标普500明年将涨到8100点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街最乐观预测来了，奥本海默：标普500明年将涨到8100点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-08 21:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760927><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华尔街对美股的看多情绪创下新高，奥本海默（Oppenheimer Asset Management）给出了目前华尔街最激进的预测。该公司首席投资策略师John Stoltzfus预计，受企业盈利强劲增长和美国经济韧性的推动，标普500指数将在2026年进一步攀升至8100点。据彭博汇总的数据显示，Stoltzfus设定的这一目标位意味着标普500指数将在当前水平上再上涨18%，在所有受访策略师的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760927\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760927","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124249207","content_text":"华尔街对美股的看多情绪创下新高，奥本海默（Oppenheimer Asset Management）给出了目前华尔街最激进的预测。该公司首席投资策略师John Stoltzfus预计，受企业盈利强劲增长和美国经济韧性的推动，标普500指数将在2026年进一步攀升至8100点。据彭博汇总的数据显示，Stoltzfus设定的这一目标位意味着标普500指数将在当前水平上再上涨18%，在所有受访策略师的预测中位列第一。该团队指出，乐观预期主要基于美国经济数据的持续韧性，以及标普500成分股企业在今年大部分时间内的业绩表现均超出预期，预计明年企业盈利增幅将达到12%。然而，市场短期内也面临由于预期兑现而引发的波动风险。摩根大通策略师警告称，鉴于市场对美联储本周降息的预期已达到92%并被充分计价，近期的股市涨势可能会陷入停滞。投资者或倾向于在年底前锁定收益，而非在政策落地时继续增加风险敞口，这意味着短期股市可能缺乏进一步上涨的催化剂。尽管短期博弈加剧，但机构对明年市场的整体信心依然稳固。据一项针对亚洲、欧洲和华尔街资产管理机构的非正式调查显示，超过四分之三的受访者表示正在为2026年的风险偏好环境配置投资组合。这一趋势表明，尽管存在对短期回调的担忧，甚至美国劳动力市场信号混杂，但投资者仍普遍看好美股在更广泛宏观环境支持下的中期走势。华尔街最乐观的目标位Oppenheimer团队的报告大大提振了市场的多头氛围。目前，华尔街策略师对2026年底标普500指数的目标均值为7315点，而上周五该指数收盘于6870点。John Stoltzfus给出的8100点目标显著高于均值，突显了其对基本面的强烈信心。该团队强调，支撑这一乐观预测的核心在于每股收益（EPS）将持续保持两位数增长。Oppenheimer预计，随着美国经济表现出强于预期的韧性，企业盈利能力将进一步修复，明年整体盈利增幅有望达到12%。这种由业绩驱动的上涨逻辑，被视为支撑估值扩张的关键因素。短期回调风险与获利了结在乐观的中期展望之外，部分大型投行对短期市场节奏发出了预警。由Mislav Matejka领导的摩根大通策略师团队在报告中指出，过去数周决策者的鸽派表态已推动降息预期稳步上升，并带动股市重返高位。目前市场对美联储周四降息的定价已接近完全确定，这种高度一致的预期往往伴随着“买预期、卖事实”的风险。Matejka团队认为，降息预期已完全反映在当前价格中。面对年底的时间节点，投资者面临时机选择：是兑现累积的涨幅，还是继续加码。摩根大通倾向认为，投资者届时可能选择锁定收益，而非增加方向性风险敞口，这可能导致近期涨势停滞。值得注意的是，Matejka曾在美联储9月降息前发出过类似警告，随后的市场波动验证了其预判，这为其最新的谨慎观点增添了分量。尽管提示了短期调整风险，摩根大通对股市的中期前景仍保持看涨立场。Matejka在报告中分析称，鸽派的美联储将继续为股市提供流动性支撑。与此同时，油价低迷、工资增长放缓以及美国关税压力的缓和，共同构成了一个有利的宏观组合，使美联储能够在不引发通胀反弹的情况下放松货币政策。此外，报告还列举了支撑2026年股市的关键驱动力，包括贸易不确定性的降低、欧元区财政支出的增加，以及人工智能在美国的快速推广应用。这些结构性因素被认为将抵消短期宏观数据的扰动，支持股市在中期内延续升势。市场调查也佐证了这一观点，尽管劳动力市场信号混杂且2026年政策路径尚存不确定性，但全球资产管理机构仍在大举布局明年的风险资产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":2,"SPY":2,"VOO":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}