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LuckyJason93

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- LuckyJason93LuckyJason93
  ·10:25
  低于指引，non-GAAP也不一定盈利了，毛利率保不住18，这些信息不用给韭菜们透露
  财报前瞻｜蔚来本季度营收预计增68.13%，机构观点偏多
  蔚来将于2026年09月01日美股盘前发布最新财报，市场关注高增长是否延续及利润端修复进度。市场一致预期本季度蔚来营收约人民币334.89亿，同比增长68.13%；调整后每股收益-0.21元，同比提升90.51%。公司上一季度未在公开口径对本季度营收、毛利率、净利率、调整后每股收益给出明确指引，当前对毛利率与净利率暂无一致预测。
  财报前瞻｜蔚来本季度营收预计增68.13%，机构观点偏多
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- LuckyJason93LuckyJason93
  ·08-26
  $蔚来(NIO)$ 加点put，看空9/1业绩
  335 评论
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- LuckyJason93LuckyJason93
  ·08-21
  $蔚来-SW(09866)$ 美股可能要在四季度跌破3了
  1,381 3
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- LuckyJason93LuckyJason93
  ·08-19
  $蔚来(NIO)$ 你们注意了，这不是彩虹出现前的暴风雨，而是彻底突破前低的开胃菜。还是保持年底破3的预期
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- LuckyJason93LuckyJason93
  ·08-13
  $蔚来(NIO)$ 看来还是蔚来会在蔚小理三个垃圾中最先倒下
  440 评论
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- LuckyJason93LuckyJason93
  ·08-11
  $蔚来(NIO)$ 我就知道做空小鹏蔚来理想这三家废物公司，一定挣得盆满钵满[开心]
  432 评论
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- LuckyJason93LuckyJason93
  ·08-11
  $蔚来(NIO)$ 好消息，先跌个20个点庆祝一下[开心]
  1,148 1
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- LuckyJason93LuckyJason93
  ·08-10
  $纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC)$ 做空中国的垃圾企业永远是对的[开心]
  204 评论
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- LuckyJason93LuckyJason93
  ·08-05
  $小鹏集团(XPEV)$ 今年底跌出历史新低，5刀以下！
  1,063 评论
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- LuckyJason93LuckyJason93
  ·07-30
  $小鹏集团(XPEV)$ 垃圾永远不会发光的，注定永远是垃圾[开心]
  789 评论
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08:17","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻｜蔚来本季度营收预计增68.13%，机构观点偏多","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193785736","media":"财报Agent","summary":"蔚来将于2026年09月01日美股盘前发布最新财报，市场关注高增长是否延续及利润端修复进度。市场一致预期本季度蔚来营收约人民币334.89亿，同比增长68.13%；调整后每股收益-0.21元，同比提升90.51%。公司上一季度未在公开口径对本季度营收、毛利率、净利率、调整后每股收益给出明确指引，当前对毛利率与净利率暂无一致预测。","content":"<p><h2><b>摘要</b></h2>\n蔚来将于2026年09月01日美股盘前发布最新财报，市场关注高增长是否延续及利润端修复进度。\n<h2><b>市场预测</b></h2>\n市场一致预期本季度蔚来营收约人民币334.89亿，同比增长68.13%；调整后每股收益-0.21元，同比提升90.51%。公司上一季度未在公开口径对本季度营收、毛利率、净利率、调整后每股收益给出明确指引，当前对毛利率与净利率暂无一致预测。\n公司主营为整车销售，上季度汽车业务收入227.84亿，占比89.23%，结合2026年07月交付35,934台、同比增长71.00%，量能延续是本季度收入的主要支撑。发展前景较大的存量业务包括补能与服务生态，上季度“其他”收入27.49亿，在多品牌协同与网络利用率提升背景下，相关业务预计维持上行节奏。\n<h2><b>上季度回顾</b></h2>\n上季度蔚来实现营收人民币255.33亿，同比增长112.16%；毛利率19.03%；归属于母公司股东的净利润-4.96亿，净利率-1.94%；调整后每股收益0.02元，同比增长100.66%。\n业务结构方面，汽车收入227.84亿，占营收89.23%，其他业务27.49亿；净利润环比变动为-505.09%，利润端承压。交付进入三季度起步阶段延续高增，2026年07月交付35,934台、同比增长71.00%，为后续营收释放提供动能。\n<h2><b>本季度展望</b></h2>\n<h4><b>车型与交付节奏</b></h4>\n进入三季度，交付节奏延续上行：2026年07月交付35,934台，同比增长71.00%，其中蔚来品牌20,008台、乐道品牌10,155台、萤火虫品牌5,771台，结构上呈现多品牌协同发力，有利于覆盖更广的用户人群与价位区间。6月份单月交付40,597台、同比增长62.90%，叠加07月高增，使得季内开局较好，为收入确认提供数量基础。全新ES8自上市约305天累计交付达13.00万台，说明成熟车型的生命周期与认知度有助于稳定高客单价车型的订单消化。基于数量与结构的共同作用，结合一致预期营收334.89亿，本季度收入端实现高增具备可验证的交付支撑，但需跟踪到店转化与区域间节奏差异对环比走势的影响。</p>\n<p><h4><b>利润与成本控制路径</b></h4>\n利润端，市场预期调整后每股收益-0.21元，同比提升90.51%，反映单位盈利能力相较去年同期明显改善的趋势，但仍处于亏损区间。上季度毛利率为19.03%，若交付规模继续扩大而价格体系保持稳定，规模效应与BOM的持续优化有望对毛利率形成托底；另一方面，营销与研发的投入节奏、折旧摊销与保有量相关的服务成本，都会影响净利率的修复斜率。结合一致预期本季度营收高增与EBIT预估为-5.75亿、同比改善87.62%，利润率改善的方向较为明确，但何时实现盈亏平衡仍取决于费用效率与单车毛利的同步提升。</p>\n<p><h4><b>补能网络与生态协同</b></h4>\n补能与服务生态是公司“其他”业务的重要承载，上季度“其他”收入27.49亿，多品牌共享网络带来的规模效应正在释放。年内公司加速补能基础设施布局，已形成广覆盖的充换电网络，并规划在现有网络基础上新增站点，以提升用户使用便利性与网络利用率。随着品牌矩阵销量提升，网络的边际利用率有望继续上行，带动服务相关收入与用户黏性的双重改善；短期看，网络扩张带来的资本支出与折旧摊销会对利润端构成压力，长期看，网络利用率与单站效率提升是摊薄成本、增强生态粘性的关键变量。</p>\n<p><h4><b>多品牌矩阵的协同效应</b></h4>\n三品牌协同已在交付数据中体现：07月三品牌交付均创历史高位区间，年初至今累计交付227,057台，同比增长68.00%。矩阵化能够在价格带、空间与智能化需求差异化的前提下，提升线索覆盖与渠道效率，并通过共享研发与补能体系，强化规模效应。对于利润端而言，矩阵化不等同于短期内利润率自然提升，关键仍在于单车毛利、渠道费用效率与生态收入的匹配，当数量稳定增长时，费用率改善的弹性才会被逐步释放。本季度需重点观察各品牌热销车型的订单延续性与交付转化，以及由此带来的毛利率结构变化。</p>\n<p><h4><b>现金流与营运质量关注点</b></h4>\n数量扩张阶段，现金流管理与营运质量至关重要。上季度净利率为-1.94%，净利润环比变动为-505.09%，反映费用投放与成本结构阶段性承压，本季度在维持交付高增的同时，若库存周转、预收与供应链周转改善，将有助于缓和现金与利润的短期矛盾。若补能与服务生态的使用频次与单次付费额提升，叠加规模效应，经营性现金流有望环比改善；同时需关注新站点投入节奏与固定成本的匹配度，防止利用率爬坡慢于产能或网络扩张速度而造成摊薄压力。</p>\n<p><h2><b>分析师观点</b></h2>\n从已公开的近期观点看，看多为主。典型代表为国际大型投行上调评级至“买入”并将目标价上调至美元7.00，其后公司股价当日上涨约3.64%，市场对销量改善与产品矩阵扩展的预期有所反映。结合一致预期显示本季度营收同比增长68.13%、调整后每股收益同比提升90.51%，以及07月交付同比增长71.00%的量能表现，看多观点的核心在于数量与结构推动的收入高增、费用效率改善带来的利润率修复空间与生态业务的黏性增强。需要跟踪的验证点包括：三季度月度交付的持续性、单车毛利与费用率的边际变化、以及“其他”业务在网络利用率提升下的收入占比变化，一旦这些关键指标延续改善，盈利路径的可见度将进一步提高。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻｜蔚来本季度营收预计增68.13%，机构观点偏多</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻｜蔚来本季度营收预计增68.13%，机构观点偏多\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-25 08:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h2><b>摘要</b></h2>\n蔚来将于2026年09月01日美股盘前发布最新财报，市场关注高增长是否延续及利润端修复进度。\n<h2><b>市场预测</b></h2>\n市场一致预期本季度蔚来营收约人民币334.89亿，同比增长68.13%；调整后每股收益-0.21元，同比提升90.51%。公司上一季度未在公开口径对本季度营收、毛利率、净利率、调整后每股收益给出明确指引，当前对毛利率与净利率暂无一致预测。\n公司主营为整车销售，上季度汽车业务收入227.84亿，占比89.23%，结合2026年07月交付35,934台、同比增长71.00%，量能延续是本季度收入的主要支撑。发展前景较大的存量业务包括补能与服务生态，上季度“其他”收入27.49亿，在多品牌协同与网络利用率提升背景下，相关业务预计维持上行节奏。\n<h2><b>上季度回顾</b></h2>\n上季度蔚来实现营收人民币255.33亿，同比增长112.16%；毛利率19.03%；归属于母公司股东的净利润-4.96亿，净利率-1.94%；调整后每股收益0.02元，同比增长100.66%。\n业务结构方面，汽车收入227.84亿，占营收89.23%，其他业务27.49亿；净利润环比变动为-505.09%，利润端承压。交付进入三季度起步阶段延续高增，2026年07月交付35,934台、同比增长71.00%，为后续营收释放提供动能。\n<h2><b>本季度展望</b></h2>\n<h4><b>车型与交付节奏</b></h4>\n进入三季度，交付节奏延续上行：2026年07月交付35,934台，同比增长71.00%，其中蔚来品牌20,008台、乐道品牌10,155台、萤火虫品牌5,771台，结构上呈现多品牌协同发力，有利于覆盖更广的用户人群与价位区间。6月份单月交付40,597台、同比增长62.90%，叠加07月高增，使得季内开局较好，为收入确认提供数量基础。全新ES8自上市约305天累计交付达13.00万台，说明成熟车型的生命周期与认知度有助于稳定高客单价车型的订单消化。基于数量与结构的共同作用，结合一致预期营收334.89亿，本季度收入端实现高增具备可验证的交付支撑，但需跟踪到店转化与区域间节奏差异对环比走势的影响。</p>\n<p><h4><b>利润与成本控制路径</b></h4>\n利润端，市场预期调整后每股收益-0.21元，同比提升90.51%，反映单位盈利能力相较去年同期明显改善的趋势，但仍处于亏损区间。上季度毛利率为19.03%，若交付规模继续扩大而价格体系保持稳定，规模效应与BOM的持续优化有望对毛利率形成托底；另一方面，营销与研发的投入节奏、折旧摊销与保有量相关的服务成本，都会影响净利率的修复斜率。结合一致预期本季度营收高增与EBIT预估为-5.75亿、同比改善87.62%，利润率改善的方向较为明确，但何时实现盈亏平衡仍取决于费用效率与单车毛利的同步提升。</p>\n<p><h4><b>补能网络与生态协同</b></h4>\n补能与服务生态是公司“其他”业务的重要承载，上季度“其他”收入27.49亿，多品牌共享网络带来的规模效应正在释放。年内公司加速补能基础设施布局，已形成广覆盖的充换电网络，并规划在现有网络基础上新增站点，以提升用户使用便利性与网络利用率。随着品牌矩阵销量提升，网络的边际利用率有望继续上行，带动服务相关收入与用户黏性的双重改善；短期看，网络扩张带来的资本支出与折旧摊销会对利润端构成压力，长期看，网络利用率与单站效率提升是摊薄成本、增强生态粘性的关键变量。</p>\n<p><h4><b>多品牌矩阵的协同效应</b></h4>\n三品牌协同已在交付数据中体现：07月三品牌交付均创历史高位区间，年初至今累计交付227,057台，同比增长68.00%。矩阵化能够在价格带、空间与智能化需求差异化的前提下，提升线索覆盖与渠道效率，并通过共享研发与补能体系，强化规模效应。对于利润端而言，矩阵化不等同于短期内利润率自然提升，关键仍在于单车毛利、渠道费用效率与生态收入的匹配，当数量稳定增长时，费用率改善的弹性才会被逐步释放。本季度需重点观察各品牌热销车型的订单延续性与交付转化，以及由此带来的毛利率结构变化。</p>\n<p><h4><b>现金流与营运质量关注点</b></h4>\n数量扩张阶段，现金流管理与营运质量至关重要。上季度净利率为-1.94%，净利润环比变动为-505.09%，反映费用投放与成本结构阶段性承压，本季度在维持交付高增的同时，若库存周转、预收与供应链周转改善，将有助于缓和现金与利润的短期矛盾。若补能与服务生态的使用频次与单次付费额提升，叠加规模效应，经营性现金流有望环比改善；同时需关注新站点投入节奏与固定成本的匹配度，防止利用率爬坡慢于产能或网络扩张速度而造成摊薄压力。</p>\n<p><h2><b>分析师观点</b></h2>\n从已公开的近期观点看，看多为主。典型代表为国际大型投行上调评级至“买入”并将目标价上调至美元7.00，其后公司股价当日上涨约3.64%，市场对销量改善与产品矩阵扩展的预期有所反映。结合一致预期显示本季度营收同比增长68.13%、调整后每股收益同比提升90.51%，以及07月交付同比增长71.00%的量能表现，看多观点的核心在于数量与结构推动的收入高增、费用效率改善带来的利润率修复空间与生态业务的黏性增强。需要跟踪的验证点包括：三季度月度交付的持续性、单车毛利与费用率的边际变化、以及“其他”业务在网络利用率提升下的收入占比变化，一旦这些关键指标延续改善，盈利路径的可见度将进一步提高。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193785736","content_text":"摘要\n蔚来将于2026年09月01日美股盘前发布最新财报，市场关注高增长是否延续及利润端修复进度。\n市场预测\n市场一致预期本季度蔚来营收约人民币334.89亿，同比增长68.13%；调整后每股收益-0.21元，同比提升90.51%。公司上一季度未在公开口径对本季度营收、毛利率、净利率、调整后每股收益给出明确指引，当前对毛利率与净利率暂无一致预测。\n公司主营为整车销售，上季度汽车业务收入227.84亿，占比89.23%，结合2026年07月交付35,934台、同比增长71.00%，量能延续是本季度收入的主要支撑。发展前景较大的存量业务包括补能与服务生态，上季度“其他”收入27.49亿，在多品牌协同与网络利用率提升背景下，相关业务预计维持上行节奏。\n上季度回顾\n上季度蔚来实现营收人民币255.33亿，同比增长112.16%；毛利率19.03%；归属于母公司股东的净利润-4.96亿，净利率-1.94%；调整后每股收益0.02元，同比增长100.66%。\n业务结构方面，汽车收入227.84亿，占营收89.23%，其他业务27.49亿；净利润环比变动为-505.09%，利润端承压。交付进入三季度起步阶段延续高增，2026年07月交付35,934台、同比增长71.00%，为后续营收释放提供动能。\n本季度展望\n车型与交付节奏\n进入三季度，交付节奏延续上行：2026年07月交付35,934台，同比增长71.00%，其中蔚来品牌20,008台、乐道品牌10,155台、萤火虫品牌5,771台，结构上呈现多品牌协同发力，有利于覆盖更广的用户人群与价位区间。6月份单月交付40,597台、同比增长62.90%，叠加07月高增，使得季内开局较好，为收入确认提供数量基础。全新ES8自上市约305天累计交付达13.00万台，说明成熟车型的生命周期与认知度有助于稳定高客单价车型的订单消化。基于数量与结构的共同作用，结合一致预期营收334.89亿，本季度收入端实现高增具备可验证的交付支撑，但需跟踪到店转化与区域间节奏差异对环比走势的影响。\n利润与成本控制路径\n利润端，市场预期调整后每股收益-0.21元，同比提升90.51%，反映单位盈利能力相较去年同期明显改善的趋势，但仍处于亏损区间。上季度毛利率为19.03%，若交付规模继续扩大而价格体系保持稳定，规模效应与BOM的持续优化有望对毛利率形成托底；另一方面，营销与研发的投入节奏、折旧摊销与保有量相关的服务成本，都会影响净利率的修复斜率。结合一致预期本季度营收高增与EBIT预估为-5.75亿、同比改善87.62%，利润率改善的方向较为明确，但何时实现盈亏平衡仍取决于费用效率与单车毛利的同步提升。\n补能网络与生态协同\n补能与服务生态是公司“其他”业务的重要承载，上季度“其他”收入27.49亿，多品牌共享网络带来的规模效应正在释放。年内公司加速补能基础设施布局，已形成广覆盖的充换电网络，并规划在现有网络基础上新增站点，以提升用户使用便利性与网络利用率。随着品牌矩阵销量提升，网络的边际利用率有望继续上行，带动服务相关收入与用户黏性的双重改善；短期看，网络扩张带来的资本支出与折旧摊销会对利润端构成压力，长期看，网络利用率与单站效率提升是摊薄成本、增强生态粘性的关键变量。\n多品牌矩阵的协同效应\n三品牌协同已在交付数据中体现：07月三品牌交付均创历史高位区间，年初至今累计交付227,057台，同比增长68.00%。矩阵化能够在价格带、空间与智能化需求差异化的前提下，提升线索覆盖与渠道效率，并通过共享研发与补能体系，强化规模效应。对于利润端而言，矩阵化不等同于短期内利润率自然提升，关键仍在于单车毛利、渠道费用效率与生态收入的匹配，当数量稳定增长时，费用率改善的弹性才会被逐步释放。本季度需重点观察各品牌热销车型的订单延续性与交付转化，以及由此带来的毛利率结构变化。\n现金流与营运质量关注点\n数量扩张阶段，现金流管理与营运质量至关重要。上季度净利率为-1.94%，净利润环比变动为-505.09%，反映费用投放与成本结构阶段性承压，本季度在维持交付高增的同时，若库存周转、预收与供应链周转改善，将有助于缓和现金与利润的短期矛盾。若补能与服务生态的使用频次与单次付费额提升，叠加规模效应，经营性现金流有望环比改善；同时需关注新站点投入节奏与固定成本的匹配度，防止利用率爬坡慢于产能或网络扩张速度而造成摊薄压力。\n分析师观点\n从已公开的近期观点看，看多为主。典型代表为国际大型投行上调评级至“买入”并将目标价上调至美元7.00，其后公司股价当日上涨约3.64%，市场对销量改善与产品矩阵扩展的预期有所反映。结合一致预期显示本季度营收同比增长68.13%、调整后每股收益同比提升90.51%，以及07月交付同比增长71.00%的量能表现，看多观点的核心在于数量与结构推动的收入高增、费用效率改善带来的利润率修复空间与生态业务的黏性增强。需要跟踪的验证点包括：三季度月度交付的持续性、单车毛利与费用率的边际变化、以及“其他”业务在网络利用率提升下的收入占比变化，一旦这些关键指标延续改善，盈利路径的可见度将进一步提高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalSc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美股可能要在四季度跌破3了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">$蔚来-SW(09866)$&nbsp;</a> 美股可能要在四季度跌破3了","text":"$蔚来-SW(09866)$ 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