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HAKUBUN
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HAKUBUN
HAKUBUN
·
08-29 03:26
满嘴官话套话
沃什杰克逊霍尔首秀释放鹰派信号：通胀仍高于2%，美联储“还有工作要做”
8月28日，美联储主席沃什表示，通胀数据并未显示通胀趋势出现显著改善；如果通胀率不能快速达到2%，就还有工作要做。
沃什杰克逊霍尔首秀释放鹰派信号：通胀仍高于2%，美联储“还有工作要做”
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HAKUBUN
HAKUBUN
·
08-17
看不懂。真心看不懂
段永平继续加仓拼多多，大幅减持英伟达、谷歌
截至二季度末，由段永平管理的H&H International Investment基金总持仓市值约191亿美元，约合人民币1370亿元，较去年四季度末的200亿美元有所下降。二季度，段永平继续增持拼
段永平继续加仓拼多多，大幅减持英伟达、谷歌
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HAKUBUN
HAKUBUN
·
08-15
他要是没加杠杆就赚翻了。不过我也很倒霉， 美联储议息会议前一天清仓的 ，这肉割的，结结实实的
爆仓前最后一个月，“AI股神”加仓美光、闪迪
据监管文件显示，Situational Awareness在今年二季度大幅增持了存储芯片企业美光科技和闪迪，两家公司持仓合计约110亿美元，占该基金当时净资产的约四分之一。与此同时，该基金还削减了对英伟达、博通及超威半导体的期权空头头寸。
爆仓前最后一个月，“AI股神”加仓美光、闪迪
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HAKUBUN
HAKUBUN
·
08-15
不信，你们为什么不做空呢？
SK集团会长崔泰源：明年将是内存短缺现象最为严重的一年，将引发“芯片通胀”
崔泰源将美国当地客户的需求视为关键变量，正在多方面评估以扩大公司的全球生产基地。崔泰源将当前市场形势定义为一场争夺内存芯片的“战争”。崔会长判断，明年将是内存短缺现象最为严重的一年，将引发“芯片通胀”，即半导体价格飙升的局面。为解决供应瓶颈问题，SK集团已决定进行大规模扩张，在未来5年内将内存产能提高2倍。SK海力士计划密切审视未来市场需求以及与客户公司的合作关系，以最终确定追加投资地区。
SK集团会长崔泰源：明年将是内存短缺现象最为严重的一年，将引发“芯片通胀”
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HAKUBUN
HAKUBUN
·
08-07
东亚藤壶又多了一个品种
韩国严管杠杆后，本土散户涌入美国3倍ETF
韩国金融当局收紧单一股票杠杆ETF监管后，韩国国内交易量骤降逾九成，但高风险投资需求并未消退，而是迅速转移至美国市场。投资者正在无约束地买入倍数更高、风险更大的美国杠杆ETF产品，监管政策的实际效果面临质疑。同期，ProShares UltraPro QQQ买入规模达3.93亿美元，$特斯拉$两倍杠杆ETF净买入2.14亿美元，韩国股市三倍杠杆ETF亦录得1.31亿美元净流入。
韩国严管杠杆后，本土散户涌入美国3倍ETF
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HAKUBUN
HAKUBUN
·
08-05
华尔街的擦屁股纸，泡沫太多的时候擦一下，用完就扔了
《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌
重点伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”因电影《大空头》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里，即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。
《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌
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HAKUBUN
HAKUBUN
·
07-29
这种对利率的未知恐惧，已经起到一定程度的加息作用了。
警惕美联储今夜“突袭加息”！多家华尔街机构拉响警报，交易员历史性“焦虑对冲”
美联储即将公布政策决定，债券交易员们情绪紧张，尽管大多数人预测利率不会改变，但一些专家预计利率将会上调。自5月22日上任以来，沃什彻底颠覆了美联储的沟通范式。他成立多个工作组重新评估美联储的沟通机制、通胀框架和资产负债表管理。Flight认为市场再次低估了美联储政策立场转向鹰派的程度，“本周加息将明确结束前瞻性指引时代”。机构对76位经济学家的调查显示，所有受访者均预计美联储将维持利率不变。
警惕美联储今夜“突袭加息”！多家华尔街机构拉响警报，交易员历史性“焦虑对冲”
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HAKUBUN
HAKUBUN
·
07-28
华尔街的空投最喜欢拿中国鬼故事吓唬市场，真是屡试不爽呀
中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩
SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。
中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩
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HAKUBUN
HAKUBUN
·
07-27
大裤头蹬鼻子上脸了，怎么不懂得见好就收呢
“大空头”继续狙击AI！Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位，维持做空特斯拉、Palantir
Burry发文披露最新持仓动向，扩大对美光、英伟达及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位，同时新增做空卡特彼勒，并维持做空特斯拉、Palantir及持有纳斯达克100看跌期权。他认为英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户，而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动。
“大空头”继续狙击AI！Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位，维持做空特斯拉、Palantir
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HAKUBUN
HAKUBUN
·
07-27
嗯，伊朗越打越富，美国陷入绝境
美伊暂停互袭！美方连续两晚停袭，伊军方：暂停对等打击
伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚表示，伊朗现阶段采取的是“报复性威慑”战略，即通过实施对等打击，威慑美国不要继续违反其承诺，并迫使其遵守相关谅解备忘录。美国两名知情人士称，特朗普暂缓扩大对伊朗军事打击规模，原因是美方担忧战争升级或招致伊方更猛烈报复，进一步消耗五角大楼在中东地区的防空拦截弹储备。
美伊暂停互袭！美方连续两晚停袭，伊军方：暂停对等打击
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tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美联储主席沃什杰克逊霍尔演讲要点总结：</strong></p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1、美联储主席凯文·沃什周五在为堪萨斯城联储经济研讨会预备的发言稿中重申，央行的通胀目标以个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数为基准。“不应有任何误解：美联储以个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数衡量的2%物价稳定目标，是一个坚定且不可动摇的目标，”他说。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2、沃什确认，“短期利率是实现双重使命的主要工具。旨在刺激经济活动的非常规政策或许适用于真正的危机时刻，但在其他情况下应谨慎使用，甚至根本不用。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3、沃什表示，如果基础通胀未能继续下降，官员们将不得不采取行动。“我们必须有信心，基础通胀正在朝着我们的目标方向移动，而且是清晰且足够快速地移动。否则，我们还有工作要做。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4、沃什称，决策者目前应聚焦物价，并补充说，近期好于预期的通胀数据并不意味着“基础趋势已经出现了有意义的改善。通胀仍高于我们2%的目标。因此，美联储目前的首要关注点应该是物价，”他说。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5、沃什还为其缺乏前瞻性指引的做法进行了辩护。“一个更安静的美联储，在沟通上更有针对性，将更能实现其目标。而我们能否兑现使命——这才是检验我们公信力的唯一真正标准。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以下是沃什在杰克逊霍尔的讲话全文整理版：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谢谢大家。很高兴再次来到这里，见到这么多熟悉的面孔。我一直期待着这个周末——还有什么地方比这里更适合纪念我出任主席的第100天呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于这里热情好客的款待，在座的各位都欠堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长杰夫·施密德及其同事们一份情。杰夫，感谢你们所有人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">杰夫和其他策划者为今天晚些时候安排了一些娱乐活动。我建议大家在做选择时要非常小心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正如我多年前学到的，在杰克逊霍尔周围的小径上，你可以选择两种不同的徒步方式。我可以用两个词来总结我与前副主席唐·科恩一起徒步的经历：我幸存下来了。这些如同钢铁马拉松般的死亡行军，揭示了我未曾预料到的唐的另一面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有另一种徒步方式——我将其与我的老同事本·伯南克主席联系在一起。和本在一起，节奏要悠闲得多，是在洛克菲勒保护区蜿蜒的小径上轻松漫步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，在出发之前，先做个体能状况检查，问问自己：“今天是科恩式的日子，还是伯南克式的日子？”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这次聚会最大的好处是，它帮助我们所有人理清思绪，清醒地思考我们的世界和我们的时代。对我来说，这感觉是正确的地点，也是正确的受众，来真正探讨那些最重要的想法。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">创新是本次会议的主题，我相信公众和市场——以其集体智慧——理解美联储在政策实施上的创新将有助于在实现充分就业的同时实现物价稳定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以下是我今天上午讲话内容的快速概览。你可以称之为大纲……你可以称之为路线图……只是别称之为前瞻性指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，我将谈及美联储正在就最新的通用技术——人工智能（AI）——及其可能将经济带向何方所提出的一些长期问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后，我将对前瞻性指引的实践以及央行与金融市场之间的互动进行一些反思。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">接下来，我将提出一些我认为应指导货币政策实施的关键原则。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，我将给出我对经济的评估。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为未来的政策时点做准备</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在以不变的提顿山脉为背景的这里，我们所审视的经济景象绝非静止不动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在不久之前——在2008年危机爆发前夕以及随后的十年里——经济学家和政策制定者还在谈论长期停滞和全球储蓄过剩。当时普遍认为，过剩的资本将长期处于观望状态，因为根本不会有足够吸引人的投资机会。所有好东西都已被发明出来了。因此，增长将是低速且缓慢的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">嗯，时代确实变了。我们正处在一个历史的转折点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">举一个最明显的例子，人工智能——这项有80年历史的新技术名称——的进展速度甚至比其倡导者一两年前的预测还要快。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大幅提高增长的潜力正在上升。不断扩大的资本池正涌入各类与人工智能相关的基础设施。一种超摩尔定律似乎正在显现。规模定律也在改变创新的方法和速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资本和劳动力相结合，创造了处于人工智能核心的大语言模型。用户购买代币以获得对这些模型的访问权。据报道，仅两家领先实验室的年化代币销售额就超过1000亿美元——比一年前增长了500%以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储密切关注着这一切。我们认识到人工智能是一个新的变量——可能是一个新的生产要素——它将并对经济和货币政策的实施都会产生影响。它开启了一些重要的研究课题：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">人工智能的应用是否会导致整个经济体中生产力显著、持续地上升？如果是，何时发生？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">代币的使用将与劳动力形成互补还是竞争？下一代人工智能模型是否会要求更大的资本密集度，还是模型本身会帮助设计出一种轻资本的解决方案？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其他未知因素还包括由此产生的市场结构。资本回报将落在何处，或在什么时间框架内实现，这尚不明确。初期，多少盈余会流向稀缺资产的所有者——人工智能实验室、芯片制造商、能源生产商和云服务提供商？随着时间的推移，有多少价值会归于企业和消费者？这对工人和美联储职责中的就业方面有何广泛影响？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同样，我们尚不清楚代币的均衡价格。是否会出现代币的异质性，以至于越来越多的资金将被用于购买前沿最佳模型的访问权限？旧模型的代币价格是否会降至其边际成本的水平？</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们将在生产力与就业工作组的帮助下思考这些问题。我与该工作组及其他四个工作组的负责人进行的初步沟通令人鼓舞。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但需要明确的是，他们的建议将在之后提出，并且不会对我们当前政策时点的决策产生影响。但我相信，对于未来的政策挑战，今天这种智力上的投资将使我们准备得更为充分。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在我们的工作组开展工作时，我并未坐等引入美联储的创新来使我们适应目标。举一个例子，我已经开始着手改变美联储主席所谓前瞻性指引的形式和功能。你们可能知道我长期以来对未来政策决策的早期声明感到不适。我更喜欢另一条路径……并将为之辩护。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于未来政策决策沟通的透明度本身并非一种美德。沟通必须服务于美联储的首要责任：制定正确的货币政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前瞻性指引作为一种常规做法，是我和我的同事在全球金融危机期间采用的。这在当时是必要的，我们大力推行了它。但是，正如过去危机留下的其他遗产一样，我认为这种做法已经过时了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在正常时期，前瞻性指引的作用应是有限和受约束的。否则，它就有以清晰之名制造模糊的风险。过度分享政策审议和过度承诺未来决策，可能会误导市场、企业和家庭。我相信，当政策制定者在整个周期内对利率做出准承诺时，我们会抑制自己在需要决策时做出正确判断的自由。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">要制定正确的政策，我们还需要处理好金融市场与央行之间的关系。美联储需要清晰的市场信号，尽可能未经过滤……来自市场内部……各类资产价格的水平与变化……国债的价格和交易量……美元的汇价……信贷的成本和可用性……以及广泛大宗商品的价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些及其他指标应在整个商业周期内为美联储对经济活动和通胀的短期展望提供信息。它们还应揭示更广泛的金融状况……以及金融周期中的风险和不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，市场参与者自身应追踪整个经济的真实信息。他们应得出自己的结论；形成自己对产出、就业和通胀的预期；并敏锐地关注风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储应保持谦逊，且永不天真。美联储在经济和市场中扮演着至关重要的角色。我们的工具是强大的。我们决定了短期利率的路径。市场参与者将始终试图预测我们下一步的行动。但我们不应纵容一个市场参与者主要依赖美联储来决定其下一次交易的体制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">经济学文献早已描述了这种扭曲效应：一个镜中奇境问题。如果市场严重依赖美联储的指导，而美联储又依赖市场价格，我们都更可能对新事态视而不见……更可能在事态转折时措手不及……更可能在政策制定中犯错。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具有讽刺意味的是，市场参与者不太可能承担镜中奇境问题的最大成本。最严重的危害很可能降临到那些没有金融资产的人身上。如果美联储错误判断通胀和经济，谁遭受最严重的后果？不是金融界的精英们。辛勤工作的美国人才要面对过高的通胀或突然显得不那么稳定的工作。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，如果前瞻性指引不适合正常时期，那新美联储主席至少承诺一个明确的反应函数如何？当然，他应该告诉我们他的利率路径——比如说，如果数据出现热或冷的情况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我希望我们对经济的理解能精确到足以提供一个机械的、久经考验的答案——像泰勒规则这样的简单函数可以被严格依赖。但我们的知识还远未达到那个程度——至少现在还没有——而且与货币政策正确实施最相关的因素会随时间变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">提供预测来说明美联储的反应函数，在理论上比实践中更有效，在实验室里比在实际环境中更有效。不止我一个人注意到，举一个例子，2021年的前瞻性指引很可能减缓了对高通胀的政策反应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在我的主席任期内，我和我的同事们将努力构建更可靠的模型和更稳健的规则来指导政策决策。我们这样做时也清楚，经济预测的准确性仍只是一个愿望。在地缘政治、全球供应链和技术变化如此之快的当下，对我们能知与未知保持谦逊是明智的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本着同样的精神，我们应接纳可能为美联储货币政策决策提供信息的各种想法。如果目标是优化决策，我们就不应排斥对经济的各种观点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，如何规划一条更好的政策路径呢？在我余下的讲话中，我将分享一些指导我思考适当货币政策实施的关键原则……然后提供我承诺的对经济的评估。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关键原则</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">接下来谈谈原则……</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一，我注意到，在这一行，昨天的新闻常常被误认为是当前正在发生的事情。挑战在于辨别其中的差异。换言之，我们必须审视现实，以确保我们没有基于过时或不准确的数据来制定前瞻性政策。我们也不应依赖孤立的数据点。趋势最为重要。美联储是一个决策机构。我们在不确定性中做出选择，我们所依据的数据必须尽可能相关、及时、准确和可行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二，联邦储备的行动旨在确保经济的总需求侧与总供给大体一致。然而，我们直接观察到的只是经济活动。我们从未看到，只能推断供给侧真正发生了什么。因此，评估总供给与总需求之间当前和预期的平衡是不精确的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三，不应有任何误解：<strong>美联储以个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数衡量的2%的物价稳定目标，是一个坚定、固定的目标。让我们同样明确该目标的另一方面：物价稳定并非自动实现的，通胀也未必是均值回归的。实现稳定物价是美联储的工作。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第四，美联储也对实现最大就业负有责任。在中期内实现我们使命的双重目标并非二选一的问题。我不认为美联储的双重使命是相互冲突的。毕竟，高通胀本身对经济繁荣非常有害。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第五，短期利率是实现双重使命的主要工具。为刺激经济活动而采取的非常规政策可能适用于真正的危机，但在其他情况下应谨慎使用，甚至不用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第六，货币很重要。这在当今并不流行，但我认为货币与货币政策有着重要的关联。我们应关注央行创造的货币以及来自银行和金融体系的货币。诚然，金融创新和其他因素改变了连接货币基础、货币流通速度和更广泛经济的机制。但这几乎不是忽视货币最终对金融条件和价格影响的理由。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，一个更为安静、沟通更具目的性的美联储，能更好地实现其目标。我们可以为实现我们的职责而接受问责——这是对我们信誉的真正考验。借用查克·耶格尔将军的一句话：“在关键时刻，要么有理由，要么有结果。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前经济状况</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在，基于这些原则，我如何看待当前的经济？窗外到底发生了什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你可能已经在七月份的会议纪要中看到了联邦公开市场委员会的一致看法：劳动力市场稳定，产出稳健。但通胀仍然过高。我和我的大多数同事认为，更明智的做法是在会议间歇期等待新的信息——特别是考虑到供应链、投资流和地缘政治可能的发展——然后再决定是否改变利率政策是明智的。我们并表示愿意根据情况需要采取行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就我而言，今天我对经济的整体表现印象深刻，它似乎已经走强。衡量经济实力的一个指标是它抵御冲击的能力。在这一点上，主街和华尔街都表现出了非凡的韧性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">几点观察：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">企业资本支出——未来经济增长的种子——正在快速增长。设备和无形资产投资的四个季度变化约为9%，为2021年以来的最高增长率。今年超过一半的资本支出增长可能归因于与人工智能相关的建设。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于标准普尔500指数中的公司，过去一年利润增长了超过20%。利润率相对于历史水平相当高。整体股票市场波动性较低。我们密切关注市场内部情况，观察各板块的表现。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对资本支出和企业盈利增长的预期都相当高。我将继续关注其增长率的变化，即二阶导数。对资产价格、商业信心、居民收入支出和消费的连锁效应同样重要。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司债券和杠杆贷款的信用利差接近历史区间的低端，这些市场的发行量今年以来一直相当强劲。放眼固定收益市场之外看银行业务，在七月份的高级贷款官意见调查中，银行告诉我们，商业和工业贷款的标准处于其历史区间的较松一端。这有助于解释我们今年在这些贷款中看到的增长。信贷和贷款市场几乎没有显示出政策约束的迹象。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">某些行业——如住房和农业——正显示出压力。但总体而言，我很难将广泛的金融状况描述为限制性的。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管受到冲击，实际消费者支出一直保持健康，在过去四个季度增长了超过2%。将消费与我们观察到的活跃投资结合起来，私人国内最终购买（PDFP）也有所增长。今年到目前为止，PDFP的增长速度接近3%。这个指标通常比国内生产总值包含更多信号，其趋势也是积极的。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储双重使命的就业方面，我们国家做得很好。劳动力市场相当稳定。失业率为4.1%，按历史标准看仍然很低，且几年来变化不大。以四周平均值计算的失业救济金申请人数——一个经验上稳健的实时指标——接近数十年来的最低水平。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在我看来，当今劳动力市场相对较低的周转率，部分是疫情后环境中雇主与员工之间大规模重新匹配的结果。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当劳动力供应几乎没有增长时，月度就业增长自然会较低。劳动力市场总有令人担忧的领域——例如，在应届毕业生中。但总体而言，想要工作的人，大体上都在保留或找到工作。他们可能担心未来潜在的劳动力中断，但截至目前，我相信劳动力市场与充分就业是一致的。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但在我们使命的物价稳定方面，数据更令人担忧。美联储偏好的通胀指标，即PCE价格指数的12个月变化率为3.7%，而六个月变化率为4.1%。消费者价格指数（CPI）的可比指标也处于高位，PCE和CPI通胀的核心指标也是如此。这些指标都不是完美的，但它们都讲述了类似的故事：通胀运行在我们2%的目标之上。因此，美联储目前的主要焦点应该是物价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">政策制定者的工作是捕捉潜在的通胀趋势——即经济中普遍的、不受特殊因素影响的价格变动。我们要判断潜在通胀是在上升、下降还是停滞。我们不仅要了解变动的方向，还要了解变动的速度。这些广义通胀指标中的每一个都已从2022年的高点显著下降。但过去两年的进展是温和的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管今年夏天的PCE和CPI数据好于预期，但它们并未告诉我潜在趋势已显著改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据还显示出温和的工资增长。但在追踪潜在通胀时，工资增长在很长一段时间内并未被证明是未来通胀的可靠指标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为了尝试衡量潜在通胀，我发现将PCE价格指标的199个细分组成部分进行分解具有启发性。在过去12个月中，PCE篮子中有54%的商品和服务的价格涨幅超过3%。这远低于疫情后约77%的高点，但仍远高于疫情前二十年32%的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">仅看过去六个月，结论类似：PCE篮子中有49%的商品和服务的年化价格涨幅超过3%。同样，这远低于疫情后的高点，但仍相当高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期整体大宗商品价格的上涨也值得关注。我们需要判断的是，这些趋势是否表明通胀存在上行风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，过去五年多的通胀数据是否已渗透到预期中也很重要。好消息是，中期通胀预期的指标大体上看起来稳定。来自掉期市场的通胀补偿指标也发出了强烈而相似的信息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特别是鉴于近期的发展，市场价格的信心，即我们将实现物价稳定，这既是美联储作为一个机构的荣誉，也符合美联储最好的传统。我可以向你们保证……他们是对的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在经济史上，市场对通胀预期的衡量指标往往看起来强劲而持久，直到它们不再如此。这些预期不容易被动摇，目前它们被很好地锚定。但必须密切关注。确保通胀预期不会失锚是美联储的工作。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有一个信号谁都不能忽视：持续65个月的高通胀的责任完全在于中央银行。而且就该如此。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我的标准是：我们必须确信潜在通胀正朝着我们的目标移动，路径清晰且速度足够。否则，我们就有工作要做。那是我们的工作……我们的使命……我们肩负的重任。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我今天站在这里，致力于一种纪律，而非一个决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我和我的美联储同事们绝非首次在如此重要的时刻担任这些职位。我们决心通过尽最大努力做好工作来不负时光。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们以谦逊和决心严肃对待我们的责任。如此之多的事情取决于我们所做的选择。稳健的货币政策有助于家庭和企业繁荣。当有效执行时，它会拓宽和加深我们经济的势头……并有助于确保美国在世界上的领导地位。我知道我们的国家需要我们深思熟虑并明智行事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">能够再次在联邦储备系统服务，是莫大的荣幸。我衷心感谢我的同事们……以及在这个房间里的众多人士给予我的鼓励和宝贵建议。为此，以及感谢大家今天上午的耐心聆听，我谢谢各位。</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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22:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>8月28日，美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔年会上释放强硬信号，明确将抗通胀置于货币政策优先位置。受此影响，美债收益率上演“V型”反转，10年期和2年期收益率均在快速下探后明显反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五，沃什在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度经济政策研讨会上发表讲话。这是他今年5月就任美联储主席以来首次公开发表全面政策演讲。<strong>他警告称，近期通胀数据尚不足以证明物价压力已得到实质性缓解，如果美联储无法对通胀以足够快的速度回落至目标建立信心，“还有工作要做”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什重申，<strong>2%的通胀目标“坚定不移、不容更改”</strong>，美联储将确保物价稳定最终实现。他同时表示，当前金融条件并不具有限制性，利率仍是美联储履行双重使命的“主要工具”，这一表态也意味着货币政策仍保留进一步收紧的空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前，美国通胀仍高于2%的目标水平。尽管今年夏季PCE和CPI数据均好于预期，沃什对此仍持谨慎态度。<strong>他表示，这些数据“未能告诉我，通胀的底层趋势已出现实质性改善”，价格稳定并不会自动实现，通胀也不一定会自行回归目标。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fbe4f84f1ca95a0e31daed5671ad7a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美联储主席沃什杰克逊霍尔演讲要点总结：</strong></p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1、美联储主席凯文·沃什周五在为堪萨斯城联储经济研讨会预备的发言稿中重申，央行的通胀目标以个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数为基准。“不应有任何误解：美联储以个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数衡量的2%物价稳定目标，是一个坚定且不可动摇的目标，”他说。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2、沃什确认，“短期利率是实现双重使命的主要工具。旨在刺激经济活动的非常规政策或许适用于真正的危机时刻，但在其他情况下应谨慎使用，甚至根本不用。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3、沃什表示，如果基础通胀未能继续下降，官员们将不得不采取行动。“我们必须有信心，基础通胀正在朝着我们的目标方向移动，而且是清晰且足够快速地移动。否则，我们还有工作要做。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4、沃什称，决策者目前应聚焦物价，并补充说，近期好于预期的通胀数据并不意味着“基础趋势已经出现了有意义的改善。通胀仍高于我们2%的目标。因此，美联储目前的首要关注点应该是物价，”他说。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5、沃什还为其缺乏前瞻性指引的做法进行了辩护。“一个更安静的美联储，在沟通上更有针对性，将更能实现其目标。而我们能否兑现使命——这才是检验我们公信力的唯一真正标准。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以下是沃什在杰克逊霍尔的讲话全文整理版：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谢谢大家。很高兴再次来到这里，见到这么多熟悉的面孔。我一直期待着这个周末——还有什么地方比这里更适合纪念我出任主席的第100天呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于这里热情好客的款待，在座的各位都欠堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长杰夫·施密德及其同事们一份情。杰夫，感谢你们所有人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">杰夫和其他策划者为今天晚些时候安排了一些娱乐活动。我建议大家在做选择时要非常小心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正如我多年前学到的，在杰克逊霍尔周围的小径上，你可以选择两种不同的徒步方式。我可以用两个词来总结我与前副主席唐·科恩一起徒步的经历：我幸存下来了。这些如同钢铁马拉松般的死亡行军，揭示了我未曾预料到的唐的另一面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有另一种徒步方式——我将其与我的老同事本·伯南克主席联系在一起。和本在一起，节奏要悠闲得多，是在洛克菲勒保护区蜿蜒的小径上轻松漫步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，在出发之前，先做个体能状况检查，问问自己：“今天是科恩式的日子，还是伯南克式的日子？”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这次聚会最大的好处是，它帮助我们所有人理清思绪，清醒地思考我们的世界和我们的时代。对我来说，这感觉是正确的地点，也是正确的受众，来真正探讨那些最重要的想法。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">创新是本次会议的主题，我相信公众和市场——以其集体智慧——理解美联储在政策实施上的创新将有助于在实现充分就业的同时实现物价稳定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以下是我今天上午讲话内容的快速概览。你可以称之为大纲……你可以称之为路线图……只是别称之为前瞻性指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，我将谈及美联储正在就最新的通用技术——人工智能（AI）——及其可能将经济带向何方所提出的一些长期问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后，我将对前瞻性指引的实践以及央行与金融市场之间的互动进行一些反思。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">接下来，我将提出一些我认为应指导货币政策实施的关键原则。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，我将给出我对经济的评估。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为未来的政策时点做准备</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在以不变的提顿山脉为背景的这里，我们所审视的经济景象绝非静止不动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在不久之前——在2008年危机爆发前夕以及随后的十年里——经济学家和政策制定者还在谈论长期停滞和全球储蓄过剩。当时普遍认为，过剩的资本将长期处于观望状态，因为根本不会有足够吸引人的投资机会。所有好东西都已被发明出来了。因此，增长将是低速且缓慢的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">嗯，时代确实变了。我们正处在一个历史的转折点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">举一个最明显的例子，人工智能——这项有80年历史的新技术名称——的进展速度甚至比其倡导者一两年前的预测还要快。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大幅提高增长的潜力正在上升。不断扩大的资本池正涌入各类与人工智能相关的基础设施。一种超摩尔定律似乎正在显现。规模定律也在改变创新的方法和速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资本和劳动力相结合，创造了处于人工智能核心的大语言模型。用户购买代币以获得对这些模型的访问权。据报道，仅两家领先实验室的年化代币销售额就超过1000亿美元——比一年前增长了500%以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储密切关注着这一切。我们认识到人工智能是一个新的变量——可能是一个新的生产要素——它将并对经济和货币政策的实施都会产生影响。它开启了一些重要的研究课题：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">人工智能的应用是否会导致整个经济体中生产力显著、持续地上升？如果是，何时发生？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">代币的使用将与劳动力形成互补还是竞争？下一代人工智能模型是否会要求更大的资本密集度，还是模型本身会帮助设计出一种轻资本的解决方案？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其他未知因素还包括由此产生的市场结构。资本回报将落在何处，或在什么时间框架内实现，这尚不明确。初期，多少盈余会流向稀缺资产的所有者——人工智能实验室、芯片制造商、能源生产商和云服务提供商？随着时间的推移，有多少价值会归于企业和消费者？这对工人和美联储职责中的就业方面有何广泛影响？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同样，我们尚不清楚代币的均衡价格。是否会出现代币的异质性，以至于越来越多的资金将被用于购买前沿最佳模型的访问权限？旧模型的代币价格是否会降至其边际成本的水平？</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们将在生产力与就业工作组的帮助下思考这些问题。我与该工作组及其他四个工作组的负责人进行的初步沟通令人鼓舞。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但需要明确的是，他们的建议将在之后提出，并且不会对我们当前政策时点的决策产生影响。但我相信，对于未来的政策挑战，今天这种智力上的投资将使我们准备得更为充分。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在我们的工作组开展工作时，我并未坐等引入美联储的创新来使我们适应目标。举一个例子，我已经开始着手改变美联储主席所谓前瞻性指引的形式和功能。你们可能知道我长期以来对未来政策决策的早期声明感到不适。我更喜欢另一条路径……并将为之辩护。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于未来政策决策沟通的透明度本身并非一种美德。沟通必须服务于美联储的首要责任：制定正确的货币政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前瞻性指引作为一种常规做法，是我和我的同事在全球金融危机期间采用的。这在当时是必要的，我们大力推行了它。但是，正如过去危机留下的其他遗产一样，我认为这种做法已经过时了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在正常时期，前瞻性指引的作用应是有限和受约束的。否则，它就有以清晰之名制造模糊的风险。过度分享政策审议和过度承诺未来决策，可能会误导市场、企业和家庭。我相信，当政策制定者在整个周期内对利率做出准承诺时，我们会抑制自己在需要决策时做出正确判断的自由。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">要制定正确的政策，我们还需要处理好金融市场与央行之间的关系。美联储需要清晰的市场信号，尽可能未经过滤……来自市场内部……各类资产价格的水平与变化……国债的价格和交易量……美元的汇价……信贷的成本和可用性……以及广泛大宗商品的价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些及其他指标应在整个商业周期内为美联储对经济活动和通胀的短期展望提供信息。它们还应揭示更广泛的金融状况……以及金融周期中的风险和不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，市场参与者自身应追踪整个经济的真实信息。他们应得出自己的结论；形成自己对产出、就业和通胀的预期；并敏锐地关注风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储应保持谦逊，且永不天真。美联储在经济和市场中扮演着至关重要的角色。我们的工具是强大的。我们决定了短期利率的路径。市场参与者将始终试图预测我们下一步的行动。但我们不应纵容一个市场参与者主要依赖美联储来决定其下一次交易的体制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">经济学文献早已描述了这种扭曲效应：一个镜中奇境问题。如果市场严重依赖美联储的指导，而美联储又依赖市场价格，我们都更可能对新事态视而不见……更可能在事态转折时措手不及……更可能在政策制定中犯错。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具有讽刺意味的是，市场参与者不太可能承担镜中奇境问题的最大成本。最严重的危害很可能降临到那些没有金融资产的人身上。如果美联储错误判断通胀和经济，谁遭受最严重的后果？不是金融界的精英们。辛勤工作的美国人才要面对过高的通胀或突然显得不那么稳定的工作。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，如果前瞻性指引不适合正常时期，那新美联储主席至少承诺一个明确的反应函数如何？当然，他应该告诉我们他的利率路径——比如说，如果数据出现热或冷的情况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我希望我们对经济的理解能精确到足以提供一个机械的、久经考验的答案——像泰勒规则这样的简单函数可以被严格依赖。但我们的知识还远未达到那个程度——至少现在还没有——而且与货币政策正确实施最相关的因素会随时间变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">提供预测来说明美联储的反应函数，在理论上比实践中更有效，在实验室里比在实际环境中更有效。不止我一个人注意到，举一个例子，2021年的前瞻性指引很可能减缓了对高通胀的政策反应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在我的主席任期内，我和我的同事们将努力构建更可靠的模型和更稳健的规则来指导政策决策。我们这样做时也清楚，经济预测的准确性仍只是一个愿望。在地缘政治、全球供应链和技术变化如此之快的当下，对我们能知与未知保持谦逊是明智的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本着同样的精神，我们应接纳可能为美联储货币政策决策提供信息的各种想法。如果目标是优化决策，我们就不应排斥对经济的各种观点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，如何规划一条更好的政策路径呢？在我余下的讲话中，我将分享一些指导我思考适当货币政策实施的关键原则……然后提供我承诺的对经济的评估。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关键原则</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">接下来谈谈原则……</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一，我注意到，在这一行，昨天的新闻常常被误认为是当前正在发生的事情。挑战在于辨别其中的差异。换言之，我们必须审视现实，以确保我们没有基于过时或不准确的数据来制定前瞻性政策。我们也不应依赖孤立的数据点。趋势最为重要。美联储是一个决策机构。我们在不确定性中做出选择，我们所依据的数据必须尽可能相关、及时、准确和可行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二，联邦储备的行动旨在确保经济的总需求侧与总供给大体一致。然而，我们直接观察到的只是经济活动。我们从未看到，只能推断供给侧真正发生了什么。因此，评估总供给与总需求之间当前和预期的平衡是不精确的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三，不应有任何误解：<strong>美联储以个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数衡量的2%的物价稳定目标，是一个坚定、固定的目标。让我们同样明确该目标的另一方面：物价稳定并非自动实现的，通胀也未必是均值回归的。实现稳定物价是美联储的工作。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第四，美联储也对实现最大就业负有责任。在中期内实现我们使命的双重目标并非二选一的问题。我不认为美联储的双重使命是相互冲突的。毕竟，高通胀本身对经济繁荣非常有害。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第五，短期利率是实现双重使命的主要工具。为刺激经济活动而采取的非常规政策可能适用于真正的危机，但在其他情况下应谨慎使用，甚至不用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第六，货币很重要。这在当今并不流行，但我认为货币与货币政策有着重要的关联。我们应关注央行创造的货币以及来自银行和金融体系的货币。诚然，金融创新和其他因素改变了连接货币基础、货币流通速度和更广泛经济的机制。但这几乎不是忽视货币最终对金融条件和价格影响的理由。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，一个更为安静、沟通更具目的性的美联储，能更好地实现其目标。我们可以为实现我们的职责而接受问责——这是对我们信誉的真正考验。借用查克·耶格尔将军的一句话：“在关键时刻，要么有理由，要么有结果。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前经济状况</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在，基于这些原则，我如何看待当前的经济？窗外到底发生了什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你可能已经在七月份的会议纪要中看到了联邦公开市场委员会的一致看法：劳动力市场稳定，产出稳健。但通胀仍然过高。我和我的大多数同事认为，更明智的做法是在会议间歇期等待新的信息——特别是考虑到供应链、投资流和地缘政治可能的发展——然后再决定是否改变利率政策是明智的。我们并表示愿意根据情况需要采取行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就我而言，今天我对经济的整体表现印象深刻，它似乎已经走强。衡量经济实力的一个指标是它抵御冲击的能力。在这一点上，主街和华尔街都表现出了非凡的韧性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">几点观察：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">企业资本支出——未来经济增长的种子——正在快速增长。设备和无形资产投资的四个季度变化约为9%，为2021年以来的最高增长率。今年超过一半的资本支出增长可能归因于与人工智能相关的建设。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于标准普尔500指数中的公司，过去一年利润增长了超过20%。利润率相对于历史水平相当高。整体股票市场波动性较低。我们密切关注市场内部情况，观察各板块的表现。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对资本支出和企业盈利增长的预期都相当高。我将继续关注其增长率的变化，即二阶导数。对资产价格、商业信心、居民收入支出和消费的连锁效应同样重要。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司债券和杠杆贷款的信用利差接近历史区间的低端，这些市场的发行量今年以来一直相当强劲。放眼固定收益市场之外看银行业务，在七月份的高级贷款官意见调查中，银行告诉我们，商业和工业贷款的标准处于其历史区间的较松一端。这有助于解释我们今年在这些贷款中看到的增长。信贷和贷款市场几乎没有显示出政策约束的迹象。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">某些行业——如住房和农业——正显示出压力。但总体而言，我很难将广泛的金融状况描述为限制性的。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管受到冲击，实际消费者支出一直保持健康，在过去四个季度增长了超过2%。将消费与我们观察到的活跃投资结合起来，私人国内最终购买（PDFP）也有所增长。今年到目前为止，PDFP的增长速度接近3%。这个指标通常比国内生产总值包含更多信号，其趋势也是积极的。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储双重使命的就业方面，我们国家做得很好。劳动力市场相当稳定。失业率为4.1%，按历史标准看仍然很低，且几年来变化不大。以四周平均值计算的失业救济金申请人数——一个经验上稳健的实时指标——接近数十年来的最低水平。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在我看来，当今劳动力市场相对较低的周转率，部分是疫情后环境中雇主与员工之间大规模重新匹配的结果。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当劳动力供应几乎没有增长时，月度就业增长自然会较低。劳动力市场总有令人担忧的领域——例如，在应届毕业生中。但总体而言，想要工作的人，大体上都在保留或找到工作。他们可能担心未来潜在的劳动力中断，但截至目前，我相信劳动力市场与充分就业是一致的。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但在我们使命的物价稳定方面，数据更令人担忧。美联储偏好的通胀指标，即PCE价格指数的12个月变化率为3.7%，而六个月变化率为4.1%。消费者价格指数（CPI）的可比指标也处于高位，PCE和CPI通胀的核心指标也是如此。这些指标都不是完美的，但它们都讲述了类似的故事：通胀运行在我们2%的目标之上。因此，美联储目前的主要焦点应该是物价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">政策制定者的工作是捕捉潜在的通胀趋势——即经济中普遍的、不受特殊因素影响的价格变动。我们要判断潜在通胀是在上升、下降还是停滞。我们不仅要了解变动的方向，还要了解变动的速度。这些广义通胀指标中的每一个都已从2022年的高点显著下降。但过去两年的进展是温和的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管今年夏天的PCE和CPI数据好于预期，但它们并未告诉我潜在趋势已显著改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据还显示出温和的工资增长。但在追踪潜在通胀时，工资增长在很长一段时间内并未被证明是未来通胀的可靠指标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为了尝试衡量潜在通胀，我发现将PCE价格指标的199个细分组成部分进行分解具有启发性。在过去12个月中，PCE篮子中有54%的商品和服务的价格涨幅超过3%。这远低于疫情后约77%的高点，但仍远高于疫情前二十年32%的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">仅看过去六个月，结论类似：PCE篮子中有49%的商品和服务的年化价格涨幅超过3%。同样，这远低于疫情后的高点，但仍相当高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期整体大宗商品价格的上涨也值得关注。我们需要判断的是，这些趋势是否表明通胀存在上行风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，过去五年多的通胀数据是否已渗透到预期中也很重要。好消息是，中期通胀预期的指标大体上看起来稳定。来自掉期市场的通胀补偿指标也发出了强烈而相似的信息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特别是鉴于近期的发展，市场价格的信心，即我们将实现物价稳定，这既是美联储作为一个机构的荣誉，也符合美联储最好的传统。我可以向你们保证……他们是对的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在经济史上，市场对通胀预期的衡量指标往往看起来强劲而持久，直到它们不再如此。这些预期不容易被动摇，目前它们被很好地锚定。但必须密切关注。确保通胀预期不会失锚是美联储的工作。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有一个信号谁都不能忽视：持续65个月的高通胀的责任完全在于中央银行。而且就该如此。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我的标准是：我们必须确信潜在通胀正朝着我们的目标移动，路径清晰且速度足够。否则，我们就有工作要做。那是我们的工作……我们的使命……我们肩负的重任。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我今天站在这里，致力于一种纪律，而非一个决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我和我的美联储同事们绝非首次在如此重要的时刻担任这些职位。我们决心通过尽最大努力做好工作来不负时光。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们以谦逊和决心严肃对待我们的责任。如此之多的事情取决于我们所做的选择。稳健的货币政策有助于家庭和企业繁荣。当有效执行时，它会拓宽和加深我们经济的势头……并有助于确保美国在世界上的领导地位。我知道我们的国家需要我们深思熟虑并明智行事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">能够再次在联邦储备系统服务，是莫大的荣幸。我衷心感谢我的同事们……以及在这个房间里的众多人士给予我的鼓励和宝贵建议。为此，以及感谢大家今天上午的耐心聆听，我谢谢各位。</p></blockquote></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ced04ddb827bfc6052d582d3f0ecc1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","NJAN":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - January","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X 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联储，能更好地实现其目标。我们可以为实现我们的职责而接受问责——这是对我们信誉的真正考验。借用查克·耶格尔将军的一句话：“在关键时刻，要么有理由，要么有结果。”当前经济状况现在，基于这些原则，我如何看待当前的经济？窗外到底发生了什么？你可能已经在七月份的会议纪要中看到了联邦公开市场委员会的一致看法：劳动力市场稳定，产出稳健。但通胀仍然过高。我和我的大多数同事认为，更明智的做法是在会议间歇期等待新的信息——特别是考虑到供应链、投资流和地缘政治可能的发展——然后再决定是否改变利率政策是明智的。我们并表示愿意根据情况需要采取行动。就我而言，今天我对经济的整体表现印象深刻，它似乎已经走强。衡量经济实力的一个指标是它抵御冲击的能力。在这一点上，主街和华尔街都表现出了非凡的韧性。几点观察：企业资本支出——未来经济增长的种子——正在快速增长。设备和无形资产投资的四个季度变化约为9%，为2021年以来的最高增长率。今年超过一半的资本支出增长可能归因于与人工智能相关的建设。对于标准普尔500指数中的公司，过去一年利润增长了超过20%。利润率相对于历史水平相当高。整体股票市场波动性较低。我们密切关注市场内部情况，观察各板块的表现。对资本支出和企业盈利增长的预期都相当高。我将继续关注其增长率的变化，即二阶导数。对资产价格、商业信心、居民收入支出和消费的连锁效应同样重要。公司债券和杠杆贷款的信用利差接近历史区间的低端，这些市场的发行量今年以来一直相当强劲。放眼固定收益市场之外看银行业务，在七月份的高级贷款官意见调查中，银行告诉我们，商业和工业贷款的标准处于其历史区间的较松一端。这有助于解释我们今年在这些贷款中看到的增长。信贷和贷款市场几乎没有显示出政策约束的迹象。某些行业——如住房和农业——正显示出压力。但总体而言，我很难将广泛的金融状况描述为限制性的。尽管受到冲击，实际消费者支出一直保持健康，在过去四个季度增长了超过2%。将消费与我们观察到的活跃投资结合起来，私人国内最终购买（PDFP）也有所增长。今年到目前为止，PDFP的增长速度接近3%。这个指标通常比国内生产总值包含更多信号，其趋势也是积极的。在美联储双重使命的就业方面，我们国家做得很好。劳动力市场相当稳定。失业率为4.1%，按历史标准看仍然很低，且几年来变化不大。以四周平均值计算的失业救济金申请人数——一个经验上稳健的实时指标——接近数十年来的最低水平。在我看来，当今劳动力市场相对较低的周转率，部分是疫情后环境中雇主与员工之间大规模重新匹配的结果。当劳动力供应几乎没有增长时，月度就业增长自然会较低。劳动力市场总有令人担忧的领域——例如，在应届毕业生中。但总体而言，想要工作的人，大体上都在保留或找到工作。他们可能担心未来潜在的劳动力中断，但截至目前，我相信劳动力市场与充分就业是一致的。但在我们使命的物价稳定方面，数据更令人担忧。美联储偏好的通胀指标，即PCE价格指数的12个月变化率为3.7%，而六个月变化率为4.1%。消费者价格指数（CPI）的可比指标也处于高位，PCE和CPI通胀的核心指标也是如此。这些指标都不是完美的，但它们都讲述了类似的故事：通胀运行在我们2%的目标之上。因此，美联储目前的主要焦点应该是物价。政策制定者的工作是捕捉潜在的通胀趋势——即经济中普遍的、不受特殊因素影响的价格变动。我们要判断潜在通胀是在上升、下降还是停滞。我们不仅要了解变动的方向，还要了解变动的速度。这些广义通胀指标中的每一个都已从2022年的高点显著下降。但过去两年的进展是温和的。尽管今年夏天的PCE和CPI数据好于预期，但它们并未告诉我潜在趋势已显著改善。数据还显示出温和的工资增长。但在追踪潜在通胀时，工资增长在很长一段时间内并未被证明是未来通胀的可靠指标。为了尝试衡量潜在通胀，我发现将PCE价格指标的199个细分组成部分进行分解具有启发性。在过去12个月中，PCE篮子中有54%的商品和服务的价格涨幅超过3%。这远低于疫情后约77%的高点，但仍远高于疫情前二十年32%的水平。仅看过去六个月，结论类似：PCE篮子中有49%的商品和服务的年化价格涨幅超过3%。同样，这远低于疫情后的高点，但仍相当高。近期整体大宗商品价格的上涨也值得关注。我们需要判断的是，这些趋势是否表明通胀存在上行风险。此外，过去五年多的通胀数据是否已渗透到预期中也很重要。好消息是，中期通胀预期的指标大体上看起来稳定。来自掉期市场的通胀补偿指标也发出了强烈而相似的信息。特别是鉴于近期的发展，市场价格的信心，即我们将实现物价稳定，这既是美联储作为一个机构的荣誉，也符合美联储最好的传统。我可以向你们保证……他们是对的。在经济史上，市场对通胀预期的衡量指标往往看起来强劲而持久，直到它们不再如此。这些预期不容易被动摇，目前它们被很好地锚定。但必须密切关注。确保通胀预期不会失锚是美联储的工作。有一个信号谁都不能忽视：持续65个月的高通胀的责任完全在于中央银行。而且就该如此。我的标准是：我们必须确信潜在通胀正朝着我们的目标移动，路径清晰且速度足够。否则，我们就有工作要做。那是我们的工作……我们的使命……我们肩负的重任。我今天站在这里，致力于一种纪律，而非一个决定。我和我的美联储同事们绝非首次在如此重要的时刻担任这些职位。我们决心通过尽最大努力做好工作来不负时光。我们以谦逊和决心严肃对待我们的责任。如此之多的事情取决于我们所做的选择。稳健的货币政策有助于家庭和企业繁荣。当有效执行时，它会拓宽和加深我们经济的势头……并有助于确保美国在世界上的领导地位。我知道我们的国家需要我们深思熟虑并明智行事。能够再次在联邦储备系统服务，是莫大的荣幸。我衷心感谢我的同事们……以及在这个房间里的众多人士给予我的鼓励和宝贵建议。为此，以及感谢大家今天上午的耐心聆听，我谢谢各位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"SPY":0.6,".DJI":2,"TQQQ":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,".IXIC":2,"DDM":0.6,"03034":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"02834":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"NDX":2,"NAPR":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"09086":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"09834":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,".SPX":2,"07266":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"07568":0.6,"03455":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"03086":0.6,"07261":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"07522":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":597556569547872,"gmtCreate":1786906037592,"gmtModify":1786906039292,"author":{"id":"4228385961123602","authorId":"4228385961123602","name":"HAKUBUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e39f638d455bd5828c866ff7fee9d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4228385961123602","authorIdStr":"4228385961123602"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"看不懂。真心看不懂","listText":"看不懂。真心看不懂","text":"看不懂。真心看不懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/597556569547872","repostId":"2659712040","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2659712040","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1786773916,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2659712040?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-15 14:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"段永平继续加仓拼多多，大幅减持英伟达、谷歌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659712040","media":"格隆汇","summary":"截至二季度末，由段永平管理的H&H International Investment基金总持仓市值约191亿美元，约合人民币1370亿元，较去年四季度末的200亿美元有所下降。二季度，段永平继续增持拼","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至二季度末，由段永平管理的H&H International Investment基金总持仓市值约191亿美元，约合人民币1370亿元，较去年四季度末的200亿美元有所下降。二季度，段永平继续增持拼多多，重新买入阿里巴巴，同时减持苹果、英伟达、谷歌、微软等，清仓台积电、CrowdStrike等个股。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e3e2ce5c89e76bf7905b8f7a825d0fc\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"717\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">具体来看，截至6月30日，H&H International Investment共持有18只股票。苹果仍为第一大重仓股，持仓市值约78.4亿美元，占投资组合41.05%；伯克希尔B股位列第二，持仓市值约46.2亿美元，占比24.18%；拼多多以约19.1亿美元的持仓市值排名第三，占投资组合9.99%；特斯拉和英伟达则分列第四、第五位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从调仓动作来看，拼多多是段永平二季度加仓力度最大的标的，期间增持527.38万股，持股数量增至2502.21万股，较一季度末增长26.71%。截至二季度末，拼多多已稳居其第三大重仓股，持仓占比接近10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近年来，段永平持续看好拼多多，并多次加码布局，使其持仓规模仅次于苹果和伯克希尔。除继续增持拼多多外，他还于二季度重新建仓阿里巴巴，新买入30.14万股，期末持仓市值约2893万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平继续加仓拼多多，大幅减持英伟达、谷歌</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平继续加仓拼多多，大幅减持英伟达、谷歌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-15 14:05 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>截至二季度末，由段永平管理的H&H International Investment基金总持仓市值约191亿美元，约合人民币1370亿元，较去年四季度末的200亿美元有所下降。二季度，段永平继续增持拼多多，重新买入阿里巴巴，同时减持苹果、英伟达、谷歌、微软等，清仓台积电、CrowdStrike等个股。具体来看，截至6月30日，H&H International Investment共持有18只股票...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893c4259212e1f56adaa2aed6196983d","relate_stocks":{"IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","AIPI":"REX AI EQUITY PREMIUM INCOME ETF","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","EFIV":"SPDR S&P 500 ESG ETF","CLSE":"Convergence Long/Short Equity ETF","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","AIQ":"Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU1992135472.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation 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INC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2659712040","content_text":"截至二季度末，由段永平管理的H&H International Investment基金总持仓市值约191亿美元，约合人民币1370亿元，较去年四季度末的200亿美元有所下降。二季度，段永平继续增持拼多多，重新买入阿里巴巴，同时减持苹果、英伟达、谷歌、微软等，清仓台积电、CrowdStrike等个股。具体来看，截至6月30日，H&H International Investment共持有18只股票。苹果仍为第一大重仓股，持仓市值约78.4亿美元，占投资组合41.05%；伯克希尔B股位列第二，持仓市值约46.2亿美元，占比24.18%；拼多多以约19.1亿美元的持仓市值排名第三，占投资组合9.99%；特斯拉和英伟达则分列第四、第五位。从调仓动作来看，拼多多是段永平二季度加仓力度最大的标的，期间增持527.38万股，持股数量增至2502.21万股，较一季度末增长26.71%。截至二季度末，拼多多已稳居其第三大重仓股，持仓占比接近10%。近年来，段永平持续看好拼多多，并多次加码布局，使其持仓规模仅次于苹果和伯克希尔。除继续增持拼多多外，他还于二季度重新建仓阿里巴巴，新买入30.14万股，期末持仓市值约2893万美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOX":0.6,"KWEB":0.6,"STSM":0.6,"CGNG":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"TINS":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"TSMG":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"CWI":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"BLOX":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"UMMA":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"PDDL":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"PDD":1.97,"BABW":0.6,"AVEM":0.6,"SKYY":0.6,"07788":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"BABA":1.85,"BABU":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"SNVDAmain":0.6,"LTL":0.6,"KPDD":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"03145":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"CQTM":0.6,"MEMX":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"ONLN":0.6,"KNOW":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"TSMZ":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"USD":0.6,"09988":1.85,"SPWO":0.6,"ASIA":0.6,"AVSE":0.6,"EMC":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"ADVE":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"KBAB":0.6,"BBYY":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"GXPC":0.6,"FDNI":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"CORO":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"EMM":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"TRUC":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"ESIM":0.6,"GOOGL":1.9,"AIPI":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"FCOM":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"CGDG":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"VOX":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"VT":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"BABX":0.6,"METV":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"NVDA":1.92,"XDAT":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"CLIX":0.6,"DRAG":0.6,"XLC":0.6,"CGIC":0.6,"TSM":1.84,"AVXC":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"TTXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":597103176238024,"gmtCreate":1786795305492,"gmtModify":1786796631849,"author":{"id":"4228385961123602","authorId":"4228385961123602","name":"HAKUBUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e39f638d455bd5828c866ff7fee9d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4228385961123602","authorIdStr":"4228385961123602"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他要是没加杠杆就赚翻了。不过我也很倒霉， 美联储议息会议前一天清仓的 ，这肉割的，结结实实的","listText":"他要是没加杠杆就赚翻了。不过我也很倒霉， 美联储议息会议前一天清仓的 ，这肉割的，结结实实的","text":"他要是没加杠杆就赚翻了。不过我也很倒霉， 美联储议息会议前一天清仓的 ，这肉割的，结结实实的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/597103176238024","repostId":"2659772127","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2659772127","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786773040,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2659772127?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-15 13:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"爆仓前最后一个月，“AI股神”加仓美光、闪迪","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659772127","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"据监管文件显示，Situational Awareness在今年二季度大幅增持了存储芯片企业美光科技和闪迪，两家公司持仓合计约110亿美元，占该基金当时净资产的约四分之一。与此同时，该基金还削减了对英伟达、博通及超威半导体的期权空头头寸。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期Situational Awareness“折戟杠杆”震惊资本市场，最新监管文件显示，这家由“AI股神”掌管的人工智能对冲基金，在崩盘前夕仍在大举买入半导体股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据监管文件显示，<strong>Situational Awareness在今年二季度大幅增持了存储芯片企业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>，两家公司持仓合计约110亿美元，占该基金当时净资产的约四分之一。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>与此同时，该基金还削减了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>及超威半导体的期权空头头寸。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，上述布局随后遭遇重创。上月AI相关股票急剧抛售期间，美光股价下跌29%，闪迪跌幅更深达47%。科技投资头寸的快速贬值迫使这家高杠杆基金被动出售公众股票，肯·格里芬旗下城堡投资（Citadel）最终接盘了该基金持有的大量AI股票。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3222f421885bf71f429582e8ebe25a62\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1792\" tg-height=\"1180\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">激进加仓存储芯片，同期削减对冲头寸</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Situational Awareness由前OpenAI研究员Leopold Aschenbrenner创立，定位于押注人工智能基础设施浪潮。然而，AI相关股票上月遭遇大规模集中抛售，存储芯片首当其冲。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">二季度文件显示，该基金在增持美光和闪迪的同时，还削减了对英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微</a>半导体的期权空头头寸。这一操作表明，基金管理层彼时对半导体板块整体持更为乐观的判断，主动降低了对冲敞口，进一步加大了净多头暴露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于Situational Awareness而言，高杠杆叠加高度集中的持仓结构，使得这场下跌的冲击被成倍放大。110亿美元的集中持仓仅覆盖两只个股，在流动性快速收紧、净值大幅回撤的情形下，基金几乎没有腾挪空间。该基金随即被迫启动公开市场股票的强制平仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，Citadel旗舰基金Wellington在7月份大涨5.9%，主要驱动力来自该公司以约九折折扣收购了Situational Awareness公开股票持仓这笔闪电交易。在7月最后一周交易启动之前，Wellington当月涨幅仅约0.45%，折扣收购带来的收益几乎是即时兑现。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>爆仓前最后一个月，“AI股神”加仓美光、闪迪</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n爆仓前最后一个月，“AI股神”加仓美光、闪迪\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-15 13:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期Situational Awareness“折戟杠杆”震惊资本市场，最新监管文件显示，这家由“AI股神”掌管的人工智能对冲基金，在崩盘前夕仍在大举买入半导体股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据监管文件显示，<strong>Situational Awareness在今年二季度大幅增持了存储芯片企业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>，两家公司持仓合计约110亿美元，占该基金当时净资产的约四分之一。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>与此同时，该基金还削减了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>及超威半导体的期权空头头寸。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，上述布局随后遭遇重创。上月AI相关股票急剧抛售期间，美光股价下跌29%，闪迪跌幅更深达47%。科技投资头寸的快速贬值迫使这家高杠杆基金被动出售公众股票，肯·格里芬旗下城堡投资（Citadel）最终接盘了该基金持有的大量AI股票。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3222f421885bf71f429582e8ebe25a62\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1792\" tg-height=\"1180\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">激进加仓存储芯片，同期削减对冲头寸</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Situational Awareness由前OpenAI研究员Leopold Aschenbrenner创立，定位于押注人工智能基础设施浪潮。然而，AI相关股票上月遭遇大规模集中抛售，存储芯片首当其冲。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">二季度文件显示，该基金在增持美光和闪迪的同时，还削减了对英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微</a>半导体的期权空头头寸。这一操作表明，基金管理层彼时对半导体板块整体持更为乐观的判断，主动降低了对冲敞口，进一步加大了净多头暴露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于Situational Awareness而言，高杠杆叠加高度集中的持仓结构，使得这场下跌的冲击被成倍放大。110亿美元的集中持仓仅覆盖两只个股，在流动性快速收紧、净值大幅回撤的情形下，基金几乎没有腾挪空间。该基金随即被迫启动公开市场股票的强制平仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，Citadel旗舰基金Wellington在7月份大涨5.9%，主要驱动力来自该公司以约九折折扣收购了Situational Awareness公开股票持仓这笔闪电交易。在7月最后一周交易启动之前，Wellington当月涨幅仅约0.45%，折扣收购带来的收益几乎是即时兑现。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c211ed162293b2506489bdebe2cb01ff","relate_stocks":{"LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU2102340556.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - RISK PARITY FACTOR \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345768740.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) INC","TDIV":"第一信托纳斯达克科技股利指数基金","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","MU":"美光科技","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","AIS":"VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF","ILDR":"First Trust Innovation Leaders ETF","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360108059.USD":"BGF CIRCULAR ECONOMY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779501","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659772127","content_text":"近期Situational Awareness“折戟杠杆”震惊资本市场，最新监管文件显示，这家由“AI股神”掌管的人工智能对冲基金，在崩盘前夕仍在大举买入半导体股票。据监管文件显示，Situational Awareness在今年二季度大幅增持了存储芯片企业美光科技和闪迪，两家公司持仓合计约110亿美元，占该基金当时净资产的约四分之一。与此同时，该基金还削减了对英伟达、博通及超威半导体的期权空头头寸。然而，上述布局随后遭遇重创。上月AI相关股票急剧抛售期间，美光股价下跌29%，闪迪跌幅更深达47%。科技投资头寸的快速贬值迫使这家高杠杆基金被动出售公众股票，肯·格里芬旗下城堡投资（Citadel）最终接盘了该基金持有的大量AI股票。激进加仓存储芯片，同期削减对冲头寸Situational Awareness由前OpenAI研究员Leopold Aschenbrenner创立，定位于押注人工智能基础设施浪潮。然而，AI相关股票上月遭遇大规模集中抛售，存储芯片首当其冲。二季度文件显示，该基金在增持美光和闪迪的同时，还削减了对英伟达、博通以及超微半导体的期权空头头寸。这一操作表明，基金管理层彼时对半导体板块整体持更为乐观的判断，主动降低了对冲敞口，进一步加大了净多头暴露。对于Situational Awareness而言，高杠杆叠加高度集中的持仓结构，使得这场下跌的冲击被成倍放大。110亿美元的集中持仓仅覆盖两只个股，在流动性快速收紧、净值大幅回撤的情形下，基金几乎没有腾挪空间。该基金随即被迫启动公开市场股票的强制平仓。值得注意的是，Citadel旗舰基金Wellington在7月份大涨5.9%，主要驱动力来自该公司以约九折折扣收购了Situational Awareness公开股票持仓这笔闪电交易。在7月最后一周交易启动之前，Wellington当月涨幅仅约0.45%，折扣收购带来的收益几乎是即时兑现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CNAV":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"CIBR":0.6,"FCUS":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"AVGX":0.6,"TMSL":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"07788":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"OPTZ":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"SNVDAmain":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"SAVGOmain":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"USD":0.6,"SCHM":0.6,"AVGW":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"MU":2.1,"MUU":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"07388":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"PTF":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNDG":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"CGBL":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"SMU00main":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"QQQG":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"CGDG":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"SNDK":2.1,"USXF":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"FSMD":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"AVGO":1.85,"HAKY":0.6,"VT":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"HBMX":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"METV":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"NVDA":1.85,"SHOC":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"COWG":0.6,"SCHA":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"TTXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":596840083960816,"gmtCreate":1786731074418,"gmtModify":1786731076157,"author":{"id":"4228385961123602","authorId":"4228385961123602","name":"HAKUBUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e39f638d455bd5828c866ff7fee9d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4228385961123602","authorIdStr":"4228385961123602"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不信，你们为什么不做空呢？","listText":"不信，你们为什么不做空呢？","text":"不信，你们为什么不做空呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/596840083960816","repostId":"1118936442","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1118936442","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1786719260,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118936442?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-14 22:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SK集团会长崔泰源：明年将是内存短缺现象最为严重的一年，将引发“芯片通胀”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118936442","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"崔泰源将美国当地客户的需求视为关键变量，正在多方面评估以扩大公司的全球生产基地。崔泰源将当前市场形势定义为一场争夺内存芯片的“战争”。崔会长判断，明年将是内存短缺现象最为严重的一年，将引发“芯片通胀”，即半导体价格飙升的局面。为解决供应瓶颈问题，SK集团已决定进行大规模扩张，在未来5年内将内存产能提高2倍。SK海力士计划密切审视未来市场需求以及与客户公司的合作关系，以最终确定追加投资地区。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c87ca7fe6218ff77fa9c6650d1a1622a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"338\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在人工智能（AI）半导体需求爆发导致内存供应短缺加剧的背景下，SK集团会长崔泰源对在美国建设前端半导体工厂（fab）的可能性持开放态度。崔泰源将美国当地客户的需求视为关键变量，正在多方面评估以扩大公司的全球生产基地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在当地时间8月13日接受美国CNBC采访时，崔泰源表示，公司一个多月来一直在包括美国在内的多个地区考察内存工厂选址。他特别提到，美国客户希望在本国建设晶圆厂，并表示如果客户有此意愿，愿意共同推进相关机会。目前，SK海力士正在美国印第安纳州建设后端封装厂，但处理晶圆的前端晶圆厂的具体计划尚未正式确定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">崔泰源将当前市场形势定义为一场争夺内存芯片的“战争”。他分析称，所有客户都要求明年的供应量比此前水平增加近两倍，但供应未能跟上。崔会长判断，明年将是内存短缺现象最为严重的一年，将引发“芯片通胀”（Chiplation），即半导体价格飙升的局面。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为解决供应瓶颈问题，SK集团已决定进行大规模扩张，在未来5年内将内存产能提高2倍。这也是在最近宣布在湖南地区建设2座新前端晶圆厂之后，集团着手确保更多选址的原因。不过，崔泰源强调，确保水、电、土地以及打造半导体生态系统是晶圆厂建设的核心前提，显示出在寻找合适地点方面的谨慎态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于大规模设施投资可能引发供应过剩的担忧，他提出了一套彻底基于需求的策略。其解释是，只有在存在确定需求的条件下才会推进扩产，并通过与客户签订长期供应合同（LTA）来消除不确定性。此外，他还补充说，正在引入各种能够分担风险的项目，例如成立合资企业，或以“内存即服务”（Memory as a Service）的形式提供内存。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">崔泰源预测，AI时代的内存周期将呈现出与过去不同的模式。这是因为过去依赖硬件设备的出货数量，而如今市场可扩展性增强，单个用户会使用多个AI代理。崔泰源强调，由于这些变化，比过去长得多的繁荣周期将持续下去，需求强劲上升的趋势短期内仍将延续。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管目前尚未与美国政府进行直接对话，但美国商务部长等主要人物正向韩国企业施压，要求其在美国建设新的前端晶圆厂。SK海力士计划密切审视未来市场需求以及与客户公司的合作关系，以最终确定追加投资地区。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SK集团会长崔泰源：明年将是内存短缺现象最为严重的一年，将引发“芯片通胀”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSK集团会长崔泰源：明年将是内存短缺现象最为严重的一年，将引发“芯片通胀”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-14 22:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c87ca7fe6218ff77fa9c6650d1a1622a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"338\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在人工智能（AI）半导体需求爆发导致内存供应短缺加剧的背景下，SK集团会长崔泰源对在美国建设前端半导体工厂（fab）的可能性持开放态度。崔泰源将美国当地客户的需求视为关键变量，正在多方面评估以扩大公司的全球生产基地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在当地时间8月13日接受美国CNBC采访时，崔泰源表示，公司一个多月来一直在包括美国在内的多个地区考察内存工厂选址。他特别提到，美国客户希望在本国建设晶圆厂，并表示如果客户有此意愿，愿意共同推进相关机会。目前，SK海力士正在美国印第安纳州建设后端封装厂，但处理晶圆的前端晶圆厂的具体计划尚未正式确定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">崔泰源将当前市场形势定义为一场争夺内存芯片的“战争”。他分析称，所有客户都要求明年的供应量比此前水平增加近两倍，但供应未能跟上。崔会长判断，明年将是内存短缺现象最为严重的一年，将引发“芯片通胀”（Chiplation），即半导体价格飙升的局面。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为解决供应瓶颈问题，SK集团已决定进行大规模扩张，在未来5年内将内存产能提高2倍。这也是在最近宣布在湖南地区建设2座新前端晶圆厂之后，集团着手确保更多选址的原因。不过，崔泰源强调，确保水、电、土地以及打造半导体生态系统是晶圆厂建设的核心前提，显示出在寻找合适地点方面的谨慎态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于大规模设施投资可能引发供应过剩的担忧，他提出了一套彻底基于需求的策略。其解释是，只有在存在确定需求的条件下才会推进扩产，并通过与客户签订长期供应合同（LTA）来消除不确定性。此外，他还补充说，正在引入各种能够分担风险的项目，例如成立合资企业，或以“内存即服务”（Memory as a Service）的形式提供内存。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">崔泰源预测，AI时代的内存周期将呈现出与过去不同的模式。这是因为过去依赖硬件设备的出货数量，而如今市场可扩展性增强，单个用户会使用多个AI代理。崔泰源强调，由于这些变化，比过去长得多的繁荣周期将持续下去，需求强劲上升的趋势短期内仍将延续。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管目前尚未与美国政府进行直接对话，但美国商务部长等主要人物正向韩国企业施压，要求其在美国建设新的前端晶圆厂。SK海力士计划密切审视未来市场需求以及与客户公司的合作关系，以最终确定追加投资地区。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c87ca7fe6218ff77fa9c6650d1a1622a","relate_stocks":{"SKUU":"2倍做多海力士ETF-GraniteShares","SKHX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","SKHY":"SK海力士","HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX","SKHA":"Tradr 2X Long SK hynix Daily ETF","SKHZ":"1倍做空海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","SKDD":"2倍做空海力士ETF-GraniteShares","07709":"南方东英SK海力士每日杠杆最多 (2x) 产品","SKHU":"2倍做多海力士-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118936442","content_text":"在人工智能（AI）半导体需求爆发导致内存供应短缺加剧的背景下，SK集团会长崔泰源对在美国建设前端半导体工厂（fab）的可能性持开放态度。崔泰源将美国当地客户的需求视为关键变量，正在多方面评估以扩大公司的全球生产基地。在当地时间8月13日接受美国CNBC采访时，崔泰源表示，公司一个多月来一直在包括美国在内的多个地区考察内存工厂选址。他特别提到，美国客户希望在本国建设晶圆厂，并表示如果客户有此意愿，愿意共同推进相关机会。目前，SK海力士正在美国印第安纳州建设后端封装厂，但处理晶圆的前端晶圆厂的具体计划尚未正式确定。崔泰源将当前市场形势定义为一场争夺内存芯片的“战争”。他分析称，所有客户都要求明年的供应量比此前水平增加近两倍，但供应未能跟上。崔会长判断，明年将是内存短缺现象最为严重的一年，将引发“芯片通胀”（Chiplation），即半导体价格飙升的局面。为解决供应瓶颈问题，SK集团已决定进行大规模扩张，在未来5年内将内存产能提高2倍。这也是在最近宣布在湖南地区建设2座新前端晶圆厂之后，集团着手确保更多选址的原因。不过，崔泰源强调，确保水、电、土地以及打造半导体生态系统是晶圆厂建设的核心前提，显示出在寻找合适地点方面的谨慎态度。对于大规模设施投资可能引发供应过剩的担忧，他提出了一套彻底基于需求的策略。其解释是，只有在存在确定需求的条件下才会推进扩产，并通过与客户签订长期供应合同（LTA）来消除不确定性。此外，他还补充说，正在引入各种能够分担风险的项目，例如成立合资企业，或以“内存即服务”（Memory as a Service）的形式提供内存。崔泰源预测，AI时代的内存周期将呈现出与过去不同的模式。这是因为过去依赖硬件设备的出货数量，而如今市场可扩展性增强，单个用户会使用多个AI代理。崔泰源强调，由于这些变化，比过去长得多的繁荣周期将持续下去，需求强劲上升的趋势短期内仍将延续。尽管目前尚未与美国政府进行直接对话，但美国商务部长等主要人物正向韩国企业施压，要求其在美国建设新的前端晶圆厂。SK海力士计划密切审视未来市场需求以及与客户公司的合作关系，以最终确定追加投资地区。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SKHZ":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"07709":0.6,"SK":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"SKHA":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"SKHY":2,"HYNX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":594009529627696,"gmtCreate":1786038546621,"gmtModify":1786038548621,"author":{"id":"4228385961123602","authorId":"4228385961123602","name":"HAKUBUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e39f638d455bd5828c866ff7fee9d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4228385961123602","authorIdStr":"4228385961123602"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"东亚藤壶又多了一个品种","listText":"东亚藤壶又多了一个品种","text":"东亚藤壶又多了一个品种","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/594009529627696","repostId":"2657656082","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2657656082","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786035938,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2657656082?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-07 01:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"韩国严管杠杆后，本土散户涌入美国3倍ETF","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2657656082","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"韩国金融当局收紧单一股票杠杆ETF监管后，韩国国内交易量骤降逾九成，但高风险投资需求并未消退，而是迅速转移至美国市场。投资者正在无约束地买入倍数更高、风险更大的美国杠杆ETF产品，监管政策的实际效果面临质疑。同期，ProShares UltraPro QQQ买入规模达3.93亿美元，$特斯拉$两倍杠杆ETF净买入2.14亿美元，韩国股市三倍杠杆ETF亦录得1.31亿美元净流入。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>韩国金融当局收紧单一股票杠杆ETF监管后，韩国国内交易量骤降逾九成，但高风险投资需求并未消退，而是迅速转移至美国市场。</strong>投资者正在无约束地买入倍数更高、风险更大的美国杠杆ETF产品，监管政策的实际效果面临质疑。</p>\n<p>据韩国预托结算院数据，7月16日至8月3日期间，韩国个人投资者海外股票买入结算规模第一名为Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X（SOXL），买入结算规模高达46.36亿美元。</p>\n<p>同期，ProShares UltraPro QQQ（TQQQ）买入规模达3.93亿美元，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>两倍杠杆ETF（TSLL）净买入2.14亿美元，韩国股市三倍杠杆ETF（KORU）亦录得1.31亿美元净流入。</p>\n<p>这一资金流向直接挑战了监管初衷。分析人士指出，国内产品受到限制，投资者转而持有涵盖汇率风险、杠杆倍数更高的境外产品，实际承受的风险敞口不降反升，监管产生了明显的"气球效应"。</p>\n<h2><strong>韩国国内交易量骤降近九成</strong></h2>\n<p>据KRX信息数据系统，<strong>监管措施实施后，韩国国内上市的16只单一股票杠杆及反向ETF交易额从7月15日的13.04万亿韩元急跌至8月4日的1.33万亿韩元，降幅达89.8%。</strong></p>\n<p>此次监管的核心措施为大幅提高基本预托金门槛——由此前含可用证券在内的1000万韩元，调整为现金3000万韩元——同时对个人投资者设置投资上限。</p>\n<p>规制实施前一日（7月30日），个人与外国人买入交易额分别为5.54万亿韩元和4.86万亿韩元；预托金新规生效次日（7月31日）即分别骤降至4237亿韩元和1.02万亿韩元，8月4日进一步收窄至3092亿韩元和4880亿韩元。</p>\n<p>监管加码的背景在于单一股票杠杆ETF本身的结构性风险。该类产品追踪标的资产日收益率的两倍，在高波动行情下会产生所谓"负复利效应"，使亏损随时间持续扩大、本金难以回收。</p>\n<p>DB证券研究员设太现（설태현）表示，单一股票杠杆产品在熊市延续时，因波动损耗效应，损失会大于基础标的，"比起情绪化地追加买入以弥补亏损，基于数据的投资策略更为必要"。</p>\n<h2><strong>资金外流：美国三倍产品成新宠</strong></h2>\n<p>国内监管趋严的同时，韩国个人投资者赴美买入杠杆产品的热情明显升温。</p>\n<p><strong>7月份，韩国个人投资者海外股票净买入规模达45.8亿美元（约6万亿韩元），为月度历史第五高；其中美国股票净买入从上月的6.3亿美元急增至46.4亿美元，SOXL、TQQQ、QLD等杠杆ETF及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>ADR均跻身净买入榜前列。</strong></p>\n<p>值得关注的是，美国市场上的杠杆产品在风险维度上更为复杂：投资者不仅面临最高三倍的杠杆敞口，还须同步承担汇率波动风险，整体波动性显著高于国内受规管产品。</p>\n<p>地乐研究（지엘리서치）代表朴昌允（박창윤）指出，单一股票杠杆ETF最初引入的部分目的，正是将流向境外的投资需求引回国内市场，同时有助于稳定汇率。</p>\n<p>他表示，"监管在短期内连续强化，可能产生投资者重返海外杠杆产品的副作用"，并建议当局在确认市场稳定效果的基础上，给予充分预告期，分阶段完善制度，以提升投资者的可预期性和政策公信力。</p>\n<h2><strong>政策实效存疑，学界呼吁重审</strong></h2>\n<p>学界对此次监管的实际效果提出明确质疑。</p>\n<p>崇实大学会计学系教授손재성表示，此次监管具有较强的"事后补救"性质，是在损失已经发生之后才出台的措施，"国内单一股票杠杆ETF波动性过高，而美国市场相对稳定，投资者向海外杠杆ETF迁移是自然结果"。</p>\n<p>他同时警告，在国内产品受限而海外产品不受约束的现行结构下，资金持续向境外集中的趋势可能难以逆转。</p>\n<p>业界亦有声音认为，监管方向有必要重新检视——在尚未观察到政策效果的情况下，接连出台追加规制，可能引发市场更大的反弹与混乱。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>韩国严管杠杆后，本土散户涌入美国3倍ETF</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n韩国严管杠杆后，本土散户涌入美国3倍ETF\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-07 01:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>韩国金融当局收紧单一股票杠杆ETF监管后，韩国国内交易量骤降逾九成，但高风险投资需求并未消退，而是迅速转移至美国市场。</strong>投资者正在无约束地买入倍数更高、风险更大的美国杠杆ETF产品，监管政策的实际效果面临质疑。</p>\n<p>据韩国预托结算院数据，7月16日至8月3日期间，韩国个人投资者海外股票买入结算规模第一名为Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X（SOXL），买入结算规模高达46.36亿美元。</p>\n<p>同期，ProShares UltraPro QQQ（TQQQ）买入规模达3.93亿美元，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>两倍杠杆ETF（TSLL）净买入2.14亿美元，韩国股市三倍杠杆ETF（KORU）亦录得1.31亿美元净流入。</p>\n<p>这一资金流向直接挑战了监管初衷。分析人士指出，国内产品受到限制，投资者转而持有涵盖汇率风险、杠杆倍数更高的境外产品，实际承受的风险敞口不降反升，监管产生了明显的"气球效应"。</p>\n<h2><strong>韩国国内交易量骤降近九成</strong></h2>\n<p>据KRX信息数据系统，<strong>监管措施实施后，韩国国内上市的16只单一股票杠杆及反向ETF交易额从7月15日的13.04万亿韩元急跌至8月4日的1.33万亿韩元，降幅达89.8%。</strong></p>\n<p>此次监管的核心措施为大幅提高基本预托金门槛——由此前含可用证券在内的1000万韩元，调整为现金3000万韩元——同时对个人投资者设置投资上限。</p>\n<p>规制实施前一日（7月30日），个人与外国人买入交易额分别为5.54万亿韩元和4.86万亿韩元；预托金新规生效次日（7月31日）即分别骤降至4237亿韩元和1.02万亿韩元，8月4日进一步收窄至3092亿韩元和4880亿韩元。</p>\n<p>监管加码的背景在于单一股票杠杆ETF本身的结构性风险。该类产品追踪标的资产日收益率的两倍，在高波动行情下会产生所谓"负复利效应"，使亏损随时间持续扩大、本金难以回收。</p>\n<p>DB证券研究员设太现（설태현）表示，单一股票杠杆产品在熊市延续时，因波动损耗效应，损失会大于基础标的，"比起情绪化地追加买入以弥补亏损，基于数据的投资策略更为必要"。</p>\n<h2><strong>资金外流：美国三倍产品成新宠</strong></h2>\n<p>国内监管趋严的同时，韩国个人投资者赴美买入杠杆产品的热情明显升温。</p>\n<p><strong>7月份，韩国个人投资者海外股票净买入规模达45.8亿美元（约6万亿韩元），为月度历史第五高；其中美国股票净买入从上月的6.3亿美元急增至46.4亿美元，SOXL、TQQQ、QLD等杠杆ETF及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>ADR均跻身净买入榜前列。</strong></p>\n<p>值得关注的是，美国市场上的杠杆产品在风险维度上更为复杂：投资者不仅面临最高三倍的杠杆敞口，还须同步承担汇率波动风险，整体波动性显著高于国内受规管产品。</p>\n<p>地乐研究（지엘리서치）代表朴昌允（박창윤）指出，单一股票杠杆ETF最初引入的部分目的，正是将流向境外的投资需求引回国内市场，同时有助于稳定汇率。</p>\n<p>他表示，"监管在短期内连续强化，可能产生投资者重返海外杠杆产品的副作用"，并建议当局在确认市场稳定效果的基础上，给予充分预告期，分阶段完善制度，以提升投资者的可预期性和政策公信力。</p>\n<h2><strong>政策实效存疑，学界呼吁重审</strong></h2>\n<p>学界对此次监管的实际效果提出明确质疑。</p>\n<p>崇实大学会计学系教授손재성表示，此次监管具有较强的"事后补救"性质，是在损失已经发生之后才出台的措施，"国内单一股票杠杆ETF波动性过高，而美国市场相对稳定，投资者向海外杠杆ETF迁移是自然结果"。</p>\n<p>他同时警告，在国内产品受限而海外产品不受约束的现行结构下，资金持续向境外集中的趋势可能难以逆转。</p>\n<p>业界亦有声音认为，监管方向有必要重新检视——在尚未观察到政策效果的情况下，接连出台追加规制，可能引发市场更大的反弹与混乱。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cd99b5d7e3c16025e04e65c1a70c229","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778878","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2657656082","content_text":"韩国金融当局收紧单一股票杠杆ETF监管后，韩国国内交易量骤降逾九成，但高风险投资需求并未消退，而是迅速转移至美国市场。投资者正在无约束地买入倍数更高、风险更大的美国杠杆ETF产品，监管政策的实际效果面临质疑。\n据韩国预托结算院数据，7月16日至8月3日期间，韩国个人投资者海外股票买入结算规模第一名为Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X（SOXL），买入结算规模高达46.36亿美元。\n同期，ProShares UltraPro QQQ（TQQQ）买入规模达3.93亿美元，特斯拉两倍杠杆ETF（TSLL）净买入2.14亿美元，韩国股市三倍杠杆ETF（KORU）亦录得1.31亿美元净流入。\n这一资金流向直接挑战了监管初衷。分析人士指出，国内产品受到限制，投资者转而持有涵盖汇率风险、杠杆倍数更高的境外产品，实际承受的风险敞口不降反升，监管产生了明显的\"气球效应\"。\n韩国国内交易量骤降近九成\n据KRX信息数据系统，监管措施实施后，韩国国内上市的16只单一股票杠杆及反向ETF交易额从7月15日的13.04万亿韩元急跌至8月4日的1.33万亿韩元，降幅达89.8%。\n此次监管的核心措施为大幅提高基本预托金门槛——由此前含可用证券在内的1000万韩元，调整为现金3000万韩元——同时对个人投资者设置投资上限。\n规制实施前一日（7月30日），个人与外国人买入交易额分别为5.54万亿韩元和4.86万亿韩元；预托金新规生效次日（7月31日）即分别骤降至4237亿韩元和1.02万亿韩元，8月4日进一步收窄至3092亿韩元和4880亿韩元。\n监管加码的背景在于单一股票杠杆ETF本身的结构性风险。该类产品追踪标的资产日收益率的两倍，在高波动行情下会产生所谓\"负复利效应\"，使亏损随时间持续扩大、本金难以回收。\nDB证券研究员设太现（설태현）表示，单一股票杠杆产品在熊市延续时，因波动损耗效应，损失会大于基础标的，\"比起情绪化地追加买入以弥补亏损，基于数据的投资策略更为必要\"。\n资金外流：美国三倍产品成新宠\n国内监管趋严的同时，韩国个人投资者赴美买入杠杆产品的热情明显升温。\n7月份，韩国个人投资者海外股票净买入规模达45.8亿美元（约6万亿韩元），为月度历史第五高；其中美国股票净买入从上月的6.3亿美元急增至46.4亿美元，SOXL、TQQQ、QLD等杠杆ETF及SK海力士ADR均跻身净买入榜前列。\n值得关注的是，美国市场上的杠杆产品在风险维度上更为复杂：投资者不仅面临最高三倍的杠杆敞口，还须同步承担汇率波动风险，整体波动性显著高于国内受规管产品。\n地乐研究（지엘리서치）代表朴昌允（박창윤）指出，单一股票杠杆ETF最初引入的部分目的，正是将流向境外的投资需求引回国内市场，同时有助于稳定汇率。\n他表示，\"监管在短期内连续强化，可能产生投资者重返海外杠杆产品的副作用\"，并建议当局在确认市场稳定效果的基础上，给予充分预告期，分阶段完善制度，以提升投资者的可预期性和政策公信力。\n政策实效存疑，学界呼吁重审\n学界对此次监管的实际效果提出明确质疑。\n崇实大学会计学系教授손재성表示，此次监管具有较强的\"事后补救\"性质，是在损失已经发生之后才出台的措施，\"国内单一股票杠杆ETF波动性过高，而美国市场相对稳定，投资者向海外杠杆ETF迁移是自然结果\"。\n他同时警告，在国内产品受限而海外产品不受约束的现行结构下，资金持续向境外集中的趋势可能难以逆转。\n业界亦有声音认为，监管方向有必要重新检视——在尚未观察到政策效果的情况下，接连出台追加规制，可能引发市场更大的反弹与混乱。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FDN":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":593496637023400,"gmtCreate":1785906029190,"gmtModify":1785906031362,"author":{"id":"4228385961123602","authorId":"4228385961123602","name":"HAKUBUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e39f638d455bd5828c866ff7fee9d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4228385961123602","authorIdStr":"4228385961123602"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街的擦屁股纸，泡沫太多的时候擦一下，用完就扔了","listText":"华尔街的擦屁股纸，泡沫太多的时候擦一下，用完就扔了","text":"华尔街的擦屁股纸，泡沫太多的时候擦一下，用完就扔了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593496637023400","repostId":"1108282527","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108282527","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785890794,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108282527?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-05 08:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108282527","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"重点伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”因电影《大空头》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里，即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">重点</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利好于预期以及油价再次下跌推动了市场上涨。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因电影《大空头（<span>The Big Short</span>）》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里（<span>Michael Burry</span>），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>标普500指数</strong>周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对<strong>霍尔木兹海峡</strong>将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">科技股占比较高的<strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种<strong>自我强化的循环</strong>，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的<strong>空头头寸</strong>：</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美光科技（Micron）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达（Nvidia）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Palantir</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>特斯拉（Tesla）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>应用材料（Applied Materials）</strong></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他说，目前这些空头头寸<strong>除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-05 08:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">重点</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利好于预期以及油价再次下跌推动了市场上涨。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因电影《大空头（<span>The Big Short</span>）》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里（<span>Michael Burry</span>），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>标普500指数</strong>周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对<strong>霍尔木兹海峡</strong>将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">科技股占比较高的<strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种<strong>自我强化的循环</strong>，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的<strong>空头头寸</strong>：</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美光科技（Micron）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达（Nvidia）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Palantir</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>特斯拉（Tesla）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>应用材料（Applied Materials）</strong></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他说，目前这些空头头寸<strong>除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec1b39b22a82612ecf8be42d25d85963","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","NVDO":"2倍上限加速NVDA ETF-Leverage Shares","DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","CAT":"卡特彼勒","PLTY":"PLTR期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","07388":"南方两倍做空英伟达","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","PLOO":"2倍上限加速PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","PLTZ":"2倍做空PLTR ETF-Defiance","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","TSLA":"特斯拉","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","PLTA":"ProShares Ultra PLTR ETF","MUD":"1倍做空MU ETF-Direxion","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF","NVDB":"ProShares Ultra 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Burry），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对霍尔木兹海峡将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。科技股占比较高的纳斯达克综合指数大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的空头头寸：iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）美光科技（Micron）英伟达（Nvidia）卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）Palantir特斯拉（Tesla）应用材料（Applied Materials）伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。他说，目前这些空头头寸除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态。伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMAT":2,"NVDB":0.6,"09766":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"MU":2,"MULL":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"07366":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"SOXX":2,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"PLTD":0.6,"PLTR":2,"NVII":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"07388":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"09366":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"07788":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"CAT":2,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"TSLA":2,"PLTZ":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"NVDA":2,"PLOO":0.6,"NVDY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591029967709440,"gmtCreate":1785296132156,"gmtModify":1785296134260,"author":{"id":"4228385961123602","authorId":"4228385961123602","name":"HAKUBUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e39f638d455bd5828c866ff7fee9d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4228385961123602","authorIdStr":"4228385961123602"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这种对利率的未知恐惧，已经起到一定程度的加息作用了。","listText":"这种对利率的未知恐惧，已经起到一定程度的加息作用了。","text":"这种对利率的未知恐惧，已经起到一定程度的加息作用了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591029967709440","repostId":"1101404339","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101404339","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1785288398,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101404339?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-29 09:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"警惕美联储今夜“突袭加息”！多家华尔街机构拉响警报，交易员历史性“焦虑对冲”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101404339","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"美联储即将公布政策决定，债券交易员们情绪紧张，尽管大多数人预测利率不会改变，但一些专家预计利率将会上调。自5月22日上任以来，沃什彻底颠覆了美联储的沟通范式。他成立多个工作组重新评估美联储的沟通机制、通胀框架和资产负债表管理。Flight认为市场再次低估了美联储政策立场转向鹰派的程度，“本周加息将明确结束前瞻性指引时代”。机构对76位经济学家的调查显示，所有受访者均预计美联储将维持利率不变。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储即将公布政策决定，债券交易员们情绪紧张，尽管大多数人预测利率不会改变，但一些专家预计利率将会上调。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席凯文·沃什将于北京时间周四凌晨2点公布他上任以来的第二次利率决议时，全球资本市场正屏息凝视一个前所未有的悬念。就在一个月前，市场还近乎笃定7月将按兵不动;而此刻，CME FedWatch工具显示加息25个基点的概率已从一周前的13%飙升至30%。花旗直言，这是“自2024年9月以来分歧最大的时刻” 。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a0a098da5accee3405532f61ed076a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>更令人紧张的是，联邦基金利率期货未平仓合约在上周五达到909,714份后，周一进一步飙升至967,136份，刷新历史纪录。“以往到了会前这个时候，市场对政策结果的预期通常已高度一致”，但这次完全不同。BMO Capital Markets数据显示，自2015年以来，交易员在美联储决议前一天对最终利率决定的预测平均误差仅为2.4个基点——而这次，误差可能以“码”来计算。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3167133643\">从“10%”到“30%”：一场被地缘政治逆转的通胀叙事</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月14日，美国劳工部公布6月CPI数据：CPI同比上涨3.5%，较5月的4.2%显著回落，环比下降0.4%，创2020年4月以来最大单月降幅;核心CPI环比持平，为2021年1月以来最小增幅。这份数据一度让市场相信，美联储可以继续按兵不动，通胀降温的信号一度将市场对7月加息的押注压低至约10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70621edec4c2bd8da0a3a647450c6791\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，降温的只是数据，而非趋势。美伊脆弱的停火协议破裂后，中东局势再度升级。7月24日，布伦特原油盘中突破每桶100美元，自6月美联储会议以来累计涨幅已达25%。油价上涨迅速传导至汽油和柴油价格，令消费者和美国工业的成本双双承压。与此同时，特朗普政府于7月24日宣布对60个国家征收10%至12.5%的新关税，作为最高法院此前否决“解放日”关税后的替代方案。此外，AI投资持续强劲，推动相关需求增长。三重因素叠加，扭转了市场对通胀降温的判断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">PGIM首席美国经济学家Robert Sockin将本周会议形容为“几乎是五五开”。Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家Neil Dutta更直言，7月加息可以让美联储获得“未来的灵活性”，避免在9月被逼入墙角。“你必须在共识中寻找机会，我觉得这次可能就是这样的时刻，”Dutta在7月22日的报告中写道。</p><h2 id=\"id_133539095\">沃什的“沉默革命”：不提前任之路，不提供任何指引</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场会议的最大变量，来自沃什本人。自5月22日上任以来，沃什彻底颠覆了美联储的沟通范式。他明确承诺放弃“前瞻性指引”——即不再提前向市场暗示利率路径。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在7月15日的国会听证会上，他拒绝就未来几个月的利率走势提供任何具体见解。他成立多个工作组重新评估美联储的沟通机制、通胀框架和资产负债表管理。正如Hartford Funds固定收益投资专家Joe Boyle所言：“沃什仍然是个难以捉摸的人物，他一直坚称自己对前瞻性指引不感兴趣。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一做法的后果正在显现——市场失去了过去十几年习以为常的“政策指南针”。R.J. O'Brien衍生品经纪人Alex Manzara指出：“过去，美联储通常不会令市场意外。临近会议时，联邦基金期货隐含利率与最终政策利率通常不会相差超过两三个基点。现在合约中突然出现了不确定性，而这带来了交易需求。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fdc49cef2c40505b17941c946a0a7d4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bianco Research总裁Jim Bianco表示 ：“没有前瞻指引，意味着我们将频繁看到20%、30%、40%的概率分布”。高盛指出，投资者认为7月会议结果存在“异常大的不确定性”，原因正是美联储内部意见分歧、沃什本人立场尚不明确。</p><h2 id=\"id_323543074\">政治暗流：沃什与特朗普的微妙平衡</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场政策博弈的背后，还隐藏着复杂的政治计算。特朗普已公开向沃什施压要求降息，称“利率应该降低”，“我们应该拥有全球最低的利率”。债券市场资深人士Harley Bassman在报告中直言，美联储应该“撕掉创可贴”，将利率提高50个基点。“加息50个基点表明市场出现了一位新警长，他并不受总统的约束”——此举既能获得抗通胀信誉，又能抵御特朗普总统降低借贷成本的压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SMBC日兴证券美国首席经济学家Joseph Lavorgna指出，若等到9月甚至10月才行动——第一次加息正好在中期选举之前——“那会是什么样子?他不如现在就行动”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什面临的考验在于：他在国会誓言“零容忍”通胀，却迟迟不愿透露具体路径。正如贝莱德此前所指出的，沃什“认识到信誉仍然是央行最强大的政策工具”——但“这些话最终需要用行动来支撑”。</p><h2 id=\"id_2680896766\">鹰派集结：至少两张反对票在途，城堡证券押注“突袭加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储内部的分歧同样罕见。达拉斯联储主席洛根近期明确呼吁“略微更高的利率”，认为通胀仍明显高于2%目标。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也警告通胀压力过高。两人均拥有2026年FOMC投票权，曾在4月投下反对票，本周极可能再次反对。<strong>高盛预计至少一位委员将投赞成加息的异议票;丹斯克银行预计2至4名委员支持加息;而花旗则押注按兵不动。不过，花旗预计，若反对票超过两张，将被市场解读为更强烈的鹰派信号。机构预测本周至少会有两张反对票。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>更激进的信号来自华尔街。城堡证券宏观策略主管Frank Flight出人意料地改变基本预期，转而支持本周加息。</strong>他在报告中写道，加息25个基点将强化沃什恢复价格稳定的承诺，同时表明政策制定者不再依赖提前向市场“明示”每一次政策行动。Flight认为市场再次低估了美联储政策立场转向鹰派的程度，“本周加息将明确结束前瞻性指引时代”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall表示，美联储没有理由不加息。</strong>PGIM全球债券主管兼首席投资策略师Robert Tipp则表示，市场可能低估了周三加息的可能性。Tipp说：“他确实为加息做好了准备。现在推迟决定会增加九月份加息50个基点的可能性。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，分析指出，沃什本人可能并不支持现在加息。他在7月15日的国会证词中将能源价格冲击描述为“特定价格发生的特定冲击，我们无法控制”。加息将“预判”他刚成立的工作组的结论。此外，6月CPI已出现六年来首次下降，就业增长放缓，为按兵不动提供了理由。机构对76位经济学家的调查显示，所有受访者均预计美联储将维持利率不变。</p><h2 id=\"id_3797664327\">市场屏息：无论结果如何，波动都将剧烈</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle坦言，他20年来从未像现在这样对美联储即将做出的利率决定感到如此不确定，上次感到不确定还要追溯到本·伯南克担任美联储主席的时候；<strong>他指出，沃什缺乏过往历史以及美联储官员近期的分歧进一步加剧了前景的不确定性，但他不排除沃什最终投下决定性一票的可能性。</strong>美国银行美国利率策略主管Mark Cabana的总结更为精辟：“投资者仍在试图了解美联储在沃什担任主席期间将如何运作。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>不确定性正在驱动前所未有的对冲需求。8月联邦基金期货合约的未平仓合约量在7月27日达到967,136份，刷新历史纪录。</strong>花旗交易团队已买入7月FOMC合约——该头寸将在央行维持利率不变时获利，其短期利率交易全球负责人Akshay Singal表示，“沃什一直明确表示希望市场关注数据，而当前数据尚不足以支持加息”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365fa0bfcd36b7feabaf2feca5d4e12e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">宏观策略师Michael Ball指出：“虽然市场正与一位可能在不预告意图的情况下采取行动的美联储主席踏入未知领域，但这样的举措最终可能被投资者接受为适当政策。那将在短期内支撑风险资产”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n警惕美联储今夜“突袭加息”！多家华尔街机构拉响警报，交易员历史性“焦虑对冲”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-29 09:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储即将公布政策决定，债券交易员们情绪紧张，尽管大多数人预测利率不会改变，但一些专家预计利率将会上调。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席凯文·沃什将于北京时间周四凌晨2点公布他上任以来的第二次利率决议时，全球资本市场正屏息凝视一个前所未有的悬念。就在一个月前，市场还近乎笃定7月将按兵不动;而此刻，CME FedWatch工具显示加息25个基点的概率已从一周前的13%飙升至30%。花旗直言，这是“自2024年9月以来分歧最大的时刻” 。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a0a098da5accee3405532f61ed076a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>更令人紧张的是，联邦基金利率期货未平仓合约在上周五达到909,714份后，周一进一步飙升至967,136份，刷新历史纪录。“以往到了会前这个时候，市场对政策结果的预期通常已高度一致”，但这次完全不同。BMO Capital Markets数据显示，自2015年以来，交易员在美联储决议前一天对最终利率决定的预测平均误差仅为2.4个基点——而这次，误差可能以“码”来计算。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3167133643\">从“10%”到“30%”：一场被地缘政治逆转的通胀叙事</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月14日，美国劳工部公布6月CPI数据：CPI同比上涨3.5%，较5月的4.2%显著回落，环比下降0.4%，创2020年4月以来最大单月降幅;核心CPI环比持平，为2021年1月以来最小增幅。这份数据一度让市场相信，美联储可以继续按兵不动，通胀降温的信号一度将市场对7月加息的押注压低至约10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70621edec4c2bd8da0a3a647450c6791\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，降温的只是数据，而非趋势。美伊脆弱的停火协议破裂后，中东局势再度升级。7月24日，布伦特原油盘中突破每桶100美元，自6月美联储会议以来累计涨幅已达25%。油价上涨迅速传导至汽油和柴油价格，令消费者和美国工业的成本双双承压。与此同时，特朗普政府于7月24日宣布对60个国家征收10%至12.5%的新关税，作为最高法院此前否决“解放日”关税后的替代方案。此外，AI投资持续强劲，推动相关需求增长。三重因素叠加，扭转了市场对通胀降温的判断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">PGIM首席美国经济学家Robert Sockin将本周会议形容为“几乎是五五开”。Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家Neil Dutta更直言，7月加息可以让美联储获得“未来的灵活性”，避免在9月被逼入墙角。“你必须在共识中寻找机会，我觉得这次可能就是这样的时刻，”Dutta在7月22日的报告中写道。</p><h2 id=\"id_133539095\">沃什的“沉默革命”：不提前任之路，不提供任何指引</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场会议的最大变量，来自沃什本人。自5月22日上任以来，沃什彻底颠覆了美联储的沟通范式。他明确承诺放弃“前瞻性指引”——即不再提前向市场暗示利率路径。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在7月15日的国会听证会上，他拒绝就未来几个月的利率走势提供任何具体见解。他成立多个工作组重新评估美联储的沟通机制、通胀框架和资产负债表管理。正如Hartford Funds固定收益投资专家Joe Boyle所言：“沃什仍然是个难以捉摸的人物，他一直坚称自己对前瞻性指引不感兴趣。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一做法的后果正在显现——市场失去了过去十几年习以为常的“政策指南针”。R.J. O'Brien衍生品经纪人Alex Manzara指出：“过去，美联储通常不会令市场意外。临近会议时，联邦基金期货隐含利率与最终政策利率通常不会相差超过两三个基点。现在合约中突然出现了不确定性，而这带来了交易需求。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fdc49cef2c40505b17941c946a0a7d4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bianco Research总裁Jim Bianco表示 ：“没有前瞻指引，意味着我们将频繁看到20%、30%、40%的概率分布”。高盛指出，投资者认为7月会议结果存在“异常大的不确定性”，原因正是美联储内部意见分歧、沃什本人立场尚不明确。</p><h2 id=\"id_323543074\">政治暗流：沃什与特朗普的微妙平衡</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场政策博弈的背后，还隐藏着复杂的政治计算。特朗普已公开向沃什施压要求降息，称“利率应该降低”，“我们应该拥有全球最低的利率”。债券市场资深人士Harley Bassman在报告中直言，美联储应该“撕掉创可贴”，将利率提高50个基点。“加息50个基点表明市场出现了一位新警长，他并不受总统的约束”——此举既能获得抗通胀信誉，又能抵御特朗普总统降低借贷成本的压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SMBC日兴证券美国首席经济学家Joseph Lavorgna指出，若等到9月甚至10月才行动——第一次加息正好在中期选举之前——“那会是什么样子?他不如现在就行动”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什面临的考验在于：他在国会誓言“零容忍”通胀，却迟迟不愿透露具体路径。正如贝莱德此前所指出的，沃什“认识到信誉仍然是央行最强大的政策工具”——但“这些话最终需要用行动来支撑”。</p><h2 id=\"id_2680896766\">鹰派集结：至少两张反对票在途，城堡证券押注“突袭加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储内部的分歧同样罕见。达拉斯联储主席洛根近期明确呼吁“略微更高的利率”，认为通胀仍明显高于2%目标。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也警告通胀压力过高。两人均拥有2026年FOMC投票权，曾在4月投下反对票，本周极可能再次反对。<strong>高盛预计至少一位委员将投赞成加息的异议票;丹斯克银行预计2至4名委员支持加息;而花旗则押注按兵不动。不过，花旗预计，若反对票超过两张，将被市场解读为更强烈的鹰派信号。机构预测本周至少会有两张反对票。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>更激进的信号来自华尔街。城堡证券宏观策略主管Frank Flight出人意料地改变基本预期，转而支持本周加息。</strong>他在报告中写道，加息25个基点将强化沃什恢复价格稳定的承诺，同时表明政策制定者不再依赖提前向市场“明示”每一次政策行动。Flight认为市场再次低估了美联储政策立场转向鹰派的程度，“本周加息将明确结束前瞻性指引时代”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall表示，美联储没有理由不加息。</strong>PGIM全球债券主管兼首席投资策略师Robert Tipp则表示，市场可能低估了周三加息的可能性。Tipp说：“他确实为加息做好了准备。现在推迟决定会增加九月份加息50个基点的可能性。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，分析指出，沃什本人可能并不支持现在加息。他在7月15日的国会证词中将能源价格冲击描述为“特定价格发生的特定冲击，我们无法控制”。加息将“预判”他刚成立的工作组的结论。此外，6月CPI已出现六年来首次下降，就业增长放缓，为按兵不动提供了理由。机构对76位经济学家的调查显示，所有受访者均预计美联储将维持利率不变。</p><h2 id=\"id_3797664327\">市场屏息：无论结果如何，波动都将剧烈</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle坦言，他20年来从未像现在这样对美联储即将做出的利率决定感到如此不确定，上次感到不确定还要追溯到本·伯南克担任美联储主席的时候；<strong>他指出，沃什缺乏过往历史以及美联储官员近期的分歧进一步加剧了前景的不确定性，但他不排除沃什最终投下决定性一票的可能性。</strong>美国银行美国利率策略主管Mark Cabana的总结更为精辟：“投资者仍在试图了解美联储在沃什担任主席期间将如何运作。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>不确定性正在驱动前所未有的对冲需求。8月联邦基金期货合约的未平仓合约量在7月27日达到967,136份，刷新历史纪录。</strong>花旗交易团队已买入7月FOMC合约——该头寸将在央行维持利率不变时获利，其短期利率交易全球负责人Akshay Singal表示，“沃什一直明确表示希望市场关注数据，而当前数据尚不足以支持加息”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365fa0bfcd36b7feabaf2feca5d4e12e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">宏观策略师Michael Ball指出：“虽然市场正与一位可能在不预告意图的情况下采取行动的美联储主席踏入未知领域，但这样的举措最终可能被投资者接受为适当政策。那将在短期内支撑风险资产”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","07568":"FI二南方纳指","SMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER SEP ETF","GPIQ":"GOLDMAN SACHS NASDAQ 100 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF","NOCT":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - 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O'Brien衍生品经纪人Alex Manzara指出：“过去，美联储通常不会令市场意外。临近会议时，联邦基金期货隐含利率与最终政策利率通常不会相差超过两三个基点。现在合约中突然出现了不确定性，而这带来了交易需求。”Bianco Research总裁Jim Bianco表示 ：“没有前瞻指引，意味着我们将频繁看到20%、30%、40%的概率分布”。高盛指出，投资者认为7月会议结果存在“异常大的不确定性”，原因正是美联储内部意见分歧、沃什本人立场尚不明确。政治暗流：沃什与特朗普的微妙平衡这场政策博弈的背后，还隐藏着复杂的政治计算。特朗普已公开向沃什施压要求降息，称“利率应该降低”，“我们应该拥有全球最低的利率”。债券市场资深人士Harley Bassman在报告中直言，美联储应该“撕掉创可贴”，将利率提高50个基点。“加息50个基点表明市场出现了一位新警长，他并不受总统的约束”——此举既能获得抗通胀信誉，又能抵御特朗普总统降低借贷成本的压力。SMBC日兴证券美国首席经济学家Joseph Lavorgna指出，若等到9月甚至10月才行动——第一次加息正好在中期选举之前——“那会是什么样子?他不如现在就行动”。沃什面临的考验在于：他在国会誓言“零容忍”通胀，却迟迟不愿透露具体路径。正如贝莱德此前所指出的，沃什“认识到信誉仍然是央行最强大的政策工具”——但“这些话最终需要用行动来支撑”。鹰派集结：至少两张反对票在途，城堡证券押注“突袭加息”美联储内部的分歧同样罕见。达拉斯联储主席洛根近期明确呼吁“略微更高的利率”，认为通胀仍明显高于2%目标。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也警告通胀压力过高。两人均拥有2026年FOMC投票权，曾在4月投下反对票，本周极可能再次反对。高盛预计至少一位委员将投赞成加息的异议票;丹斯克银行预计2至4名委员支持加息;而花旗则押注按兵不动。不过，花旗预计，若反对票超过两张，将被市场解读为更强烈的鹰派信号。机构预测本周至少会有两张反对票。更激进的信号来自华尔街。城堡证券宏观策略主管Frank Flight出人意料地改变基本预期，转而支持本周加息。他在报告中写道，加息25个基点将强化沃什恢复价格稳定的承诺，同时表明政策制定者不再依赖提前向市场“明示”每一次政策行动。Flight认为市场再次低估了美联储政策立场转向鹰派的程度，“本周加息将明确结束前瞻性指引时代”。Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall表示，美联储没有理由不加息。PGIM全球债券主管兼首席投资策略师Robert Tipp则表示，市场可能低估了周三加息的可能性。Tipp说：“他确实为加息做好了准备。现在推迟决定会增加九月份加息50个基点的可能性。”然而，分析指出，沃什本人可能并不支持现在加息。他在7月15日的国会证词中将能源价格冲击描述为“特定价格发生的特定冲击，我们无法控制”。加息将“预判”他刚成立的工作组的结论。此外，6月CPI已出现六年来首次下降，就业增长放缓，为按兵不动提供了理由。机构对76位经济学家的调查显示，所有受访者均预计美联储将维持利率不变。市场屏息：无论结果如何，波动都将剧烈瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle坦言，他20年来从未像现在这样对美联储即将做出的利率决定感到如此不确定，上次感到不确定还要追溯到本·伯南克担任美联储主席的时候；他指出，沃什缺乏过往历史以及美联储官员近期的分歧进一步加剧了前景的不确定性，但他不排除沃什最终投下决定性一票的可能性。美国银行美国利率策略主管Mark Cabana的总结更为精辟：“投资者仍在试图了解美联储在沃什担任主席期间将如何运作。”不确定性正在驱动前所未有的对冲需求。8月联邦基金期货合约的未平仓合约量在7月27日达到967,136份，刷新历史纪录。花旗交易团队已买入7月FOMC合约——该头寸将在央行维持利率不变时获利，其短期利率交易全球负责人Akshay Singal表示，“沃什一直明确表示希望市场关注数据，而当前数据尚不足以支持加息”。宏观策略师Michael Ball指出：“虽然市场正与一位可能在不预告意图的情况下采取行动的美联储主席踏入未知领域，但这样的举措最终可能被投资者接受为适当政策。那将在短期内支撑风险资产”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPUU":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"03034":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"NDX":2,"NOCT":0.6,"03086":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"09086":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"09834":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"07266":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"02834":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".IXIC":2,"IVV":0.6,".SPX":2,"HIBL":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"03455":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"07568":0.6,"07522":0.6,"07261":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,".DJI":2,"SPY":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"QMAR":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590688302822152,"gmtCreate":1785212522824,"gmtModify":1785212524951,"author":{"id":"4228385961123602","authorId":"4228385961123602","name":"HAKUBUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e39f638d455bd5828c866ff7fee9d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4228385961123602","authorIdStr":"4228385961123602"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街的空投最喜欢拿中国鬼故事吓唬市场，真是屡试不爽呀","listText":"华尔街的空投最喜欢拿中国鬼故事吓唬市场，真是屡试不爽呀","text":"华尔街的空投最喜欢拿中国鬼故事吓唬市场，真是屡试不爽呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590688302822152","repostId":"1187931355","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187931355","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785197923,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187931355?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-28 08:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187931355","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21ac8ecb5c5dcf5cc5f94e612e8c0127\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/857babbd27fd7e1470bfb614f1eac087\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac643d36cc83251efa77003eda7b4b1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。</p><h2 id=\"id_1280442175\">中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。</p><h2 id=\"id_1213106346\">长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。</p><h2 id=\"id_1542057506\">AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-28 08:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21ac8ecb5c5dcf5cc5f94e612e8c0127\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/857babbd27fd7e1470bfb614f1eac087\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac643d36cc83251efa77003eda7b4b1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。</p><h2 id=\"id_1280442175\">中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。</p><h2 id=\"id_1213106346\">长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。</p><h2 id=\"id_1542057506\">AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","SKHX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","AMDL":"2倍做多AMD ETF-GraniteShares","SNDC":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Corgi","MIC":"2倍做多MU ETF-Corgi","ASMU":"Direxion Daily ASML Bull 2X ETF","SKHZ":"1倍做空海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","MUU":"2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion","NVDG":"2倍做多NVDA ETF- Leverage Shares","SNDG":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Leverage Shares","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","ASML":"阿斯麦","NVDB":"ProShares Ultra NVDA ETF","MUYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOSTMU ETF","NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","SKHU":"2倍做多海力士-ProShares","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","SNDQ":"2倍做空SNDK ETF-Tradr","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF","AMUU":"2倍做多AMD ETF-Direxion","ASMG":"2倍做多ASML ETF- Leverage Shares","DAMD":"2倍做空AMD ETF-Defiance","NVDQ":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-T-Rex","MUZ":"2倍做空MU ETF-Defiance","AMDU":"Defiance Leveraged Long + Income AMD ETF","SNDU":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-T-REX","SKDD":"2倍做空海力士ETF-GraniteShares","07709":"南方东英SK海力士每日杠杆最多 (2x) 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Shares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187931355","content_text":"周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ANV":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"SNDG":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"NVDA":2,"WDCX":0.6,"SNDK":2,"SNDU":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"MU":2,"WDC":2,"NVDD":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"SKHY":2,"07709":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"ASMU":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"SK":0.6,"ASMG":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"AMD":2,"MUZ":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"STX":2,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"07788":0.6,"07388":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"ASML":2,"NVDW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590310160712760,"gmtCreate":1785120243823,"gmtModify":1785120245648,"author":{"id":"4228385961123602","authorId":"4228385961123602","name":"HAKUBUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e39f638d455bd5828c866ff7fee9d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4228385961123602","authorIdStr":"4228385961123602"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"大裤头蹬鼻子上脸了，怎么不懂得见好就收呢","listText":"大裤头蹬鼻子上脸了，怎么不懂得见好就收呢","text":"大裤头蹬鼻子上脸了，怎么不懂得见好就收呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590310160712760","repostId":"2654842068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2654842068","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785047083,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2654842068?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-26 14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“大空头”继续狙击AI！Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位，维持做空特斯拉、Palantir","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2654842068","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Burry发文披露最新持仓动向，扩大对美光、英伟达及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位，同时新增做空卡特彼勒，并维持做空特斯拉、Palantir及持有纳斯达克100看跌期权。他认为英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户，而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"大空头"Michael Burry再度加码做空美光等AI相关股票，并维持对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>的空头押注，其对半导体板块的看空逻辑正受到市场越来越多的关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry于当地时间7月25日在Substack发文披露最新持仓动向，显示他<strong>进一步扩大了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位，同时新增做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88feab16c1c637e5f7c39eb4fb752f9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"368\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他明确表示，<strong>英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户，而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动，并援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告加以佐证。</strong>与此同时，他<strong>对特斯拉和Palantir的空头仓位保持不变，并继续持有纳斯达克100 ETF的看跌期权。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次披露正值半导体板块承压之际。华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry此前曾表示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>公布的韩国半导体资本支出计划，是半导体行业景气周期"由盛转衰的开始"，并预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，认为AI基础设施相关公司估值已严重偏高。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">扩大半导体空头：美光、英伟达、SOXX齐齐加码</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在Substack文章中披露，他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技，以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位，并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。他表示，<strong>SOXX空头仓位与其持有的看跌期权合并计算，已构成其投资组合中的一个大型仓位。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在英伟达的做空逻辑上，Burry措辞直接。他表示，<strong>目前英伟达大量需求并非由真实终端客户驱动，相关需求的融资安排游离于资产负债表之外且未予披露，未来收入"大部分通过循环安排融资"</strong>。他援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告作为支撑依据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，这并非Burry首次出手做空美光。华尔街见闻文章写道，Burry此前曾在1051.87美元的价位做空美光，并表示"对这类情形的最终结局有相当清晰的了解"，同时还增加了另外五个做空仓位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Burry对AI相关板块的看空，建立在对行业需求真实性的质疑之上。</strong>他认为，当前AI基础设施投资热潮中，大量资本开支并未对应真实的终端需求，而是通过不透明的融资结构自我循环，存在系统性高估风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，并将三星和SK海力士的资本支出扩张计划视为行业景气周期"由盛转衰的开始"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另外，在维持原有空头仓位方面，Burry表示<strong>尚未平仓特斯拉空头，并以轻描淡写的口吻称该仓位"自己在慢慢缩小"</strong>——暗示特斯拉股价下跌已令其空头仓位的名义规模自然收缩。他同时维持对Palantir的做空，并继续持有QQQ看跌期权，表明其对整体科技板块的看空立场未有松动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从今年以来的股价表现来看，Burry的部分空头押注面临一定压力。美光年内累计涨幅接近200%，英伟达上涨约10%。不过，Palantir、特斯拉和DraftKings年内均已下跌逾三成，分别录得约34%、33%和34%的跌幅，与Burry的看空方向基本吻合。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839c9c1dcef2800f837df02e079a4f9c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1212\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在做空AI的同时，Burry也在积极布局多头仓位，且方向集中于体育博彩领域。他以100.72美元买入"相当数量"的Flutter Entertainment，并以23.07美元买入DraftKings。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在文章中写道："将FLUT和DKNG合并来看，作为对预测市场的一次押注，两者合计构成我较大的仓位之一。"此外，他还增持了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOH\">Molina Healthcare</a>，买入价格为197.02美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一多头布局与其空头逻辑形成鲜明对比——在看空AI基础设施泡沫的同时，Burry将资金转向与科技热潮相关性较低的消费及医疗领域，折射出其对当前市场结构的整体判断。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“大空头”继续狙击AI！Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位，维持做空特斯拉、Palantir</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大空头”继续狙击AI！Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位，维持做空特斯拉、Palantir\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-26 14:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"大空头"Michael Burry再度加码做空美光等AI相关股票，并维持对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>的空头押注，其对半导体板块的看空逻辑正受到市场越来越多的关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry于当地时间7月25日在Substack发文披露最新持仓动向，显示他<strong>进一步扩大了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位，同时新增做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88feab16c1c637e5f7c39eb4fb752f9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"368\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他明确表示，<strong>英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户，而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动，并援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告加以佐证。</strong>与此同时，他<strong>对特斯拉和Palantir的空头仓位保持不变，并继续持有纳斯达克100 ETF的看跌期权。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次披露正值半导体板块承压之际。华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry此前曾表示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>公布的韩国半导体资本支出计划，是半导体行业景气周期"由盛转衰的开始"，并预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，认为AI基础设施相关公司估值已严重偏高。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">扩大半导体空头：美光、英伟达、SOXX齐齐加码</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在Substack文章中披露，他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技，以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位，并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。他表示，<strong>SOXX空头仓位与其持有的看跌期权合并计算，已构成其投资组合中的一个大型仓位。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在英伟达的做空逻辑上，Burry措辞直接。他表示，<strong>目前英伟达大量需求并非由真实终端客户驱动，相关需求的融资安排游离于资产负债表之外且未予披露，未来收入"大部分通过循环安排融资"</strong>。他援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告作为支撑依据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，这并非Burry首次出手做空美光。华尔街见闻文章写道，Burry此前曾在1051.87美元的价位做空美光，并表示"对这类情形的最终结局有相当清晰的了解"，同时还增加了另外五个做空仓位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Burry对AI相关板块的看空，建立在对行业需求真实性的质疑之上。</strong>他认为，当前AI基础设施投资热潮中，大量资本开支并未对应真实的终端需求，而是通过不透明的融资结构自我循环，存在系统性高估风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，并将三星和SK海力士的资本支出扩张计划视为行业景气周期"由盛转衰的开始"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另外，在维持原有空头仓位方面，Burry表示<strong>尚未平仓特斯拉空头，并以轻描淡写的口吻称该仓位"自己在慢慢缩小"</strong>——暗示特斯拉股价下跌已令其空头仓位的名义规模自然收缩。他同时维持对Palantir的做空，并继续持有QQQ看跌期权，表明其对整体科技板块的看空立场未有松动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从今年以来的股价表现来看，Burry的部分空头押注面临一定压力。美光年内累计涨幅接近200%，英伟达上涨约10%。不过，Palantir、特斯拉和DraftKings年内均已下跌逾三成，分别录得约34%、33%和34%的跌幅，与Burry的看空方向基本吻合。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839c9c1dcef2800f837df02e079a4f9c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1212\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在做空AI的同时，Burry也在积极布局多头仓位，且方向集中于体育博彩领域。他以100.72美元买入"相当数量"的Flutter Entertainment，并以23.07美元买入DraftKings。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在文章中写道："将FLUT和DKNG合并来看，作为对预测市场的一次押注，两者合计构成我较大的仓位之一。"此外，他还增持了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOH\">Molina Healthcare</a>，买入价格为197.02美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一多头布局与其空头逻辑形成鲜明对比——在看空AI基础设施泡沫的同时，Burry将资金转向与科技热潮相关性较低的消费及医疗领域，折射出其对当前市场结构的整体判断。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623fa826a3925ac5d5f18b0f16bb748d","relate_stocks":{"IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) INC","LU2237957811.SGD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (SGD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","HK0000532082.HKD":"ALLIANZ SELECTION INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","XLK":"高科技指数ETF-SPDR","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU2413666699.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) 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POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4612":"AI芯片"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777945","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2654842068","content_text":"\"大空头\"Michael Burry再度加码做空美光等AI相关股票，并维持对特斯拉和Palantir的空头押注，其对半导体板块的看空逻辑正受到市场越来越多的关注。Burry于当地时间7月25日在Substack发文披露最新持仓动向，显示他进一步扩大了对美光科技、英伟达及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位，同时新增做空卡特彼勒。他明确表示，英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户，而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动，并援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告加以佐证。与此同时，他对特斯拉和Palantir的空头仓位保持不变，并继续持有纳斯达克100 ETF的看跌期权。此次披露正值半导体板块承压之际。华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry此前曾表示，三星和SK海力士公布的韩国半导体资本支出计划，是半导体行业景气周期\"由盛转衰的开始\"，并预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，认为AI基础设施相关公司估值已严重偏高。扩大半导体空头：美光、英伟达、SOXX齐齐加码Burry在Substack文章中披露，他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技，以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位，并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。他表示，SOXX空头仓位与其持有的看跌期权合并计算，已构成其投资组合中的一个大型仓位。在英伟达的做空逻辑上，Burry措辞直接。他表示，目前英伟达大量需求并非由真实终端客户驱动，相关需求的融资安排游离于资产负债表之外且未予披露，未来收入\"大部分通过循环安排融资\"。他援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告作为支撑依据。值得注意的是，这并非Burry首次出手做空美光。华尔街见闻文章写道，Burry此前曾在1051.87美元的价位做空美光，并表示\"对这类情形的最终结局有相当清晰的了解\"，同时还增加了另外五个做空仓位。Burry对AI相关板块的看空，建立在对行业需求真实性的质疑之上。他认为，当前AI基础设施投资热潮中，大量资本开支并未对应真实的终端需求，而是通过不透明的融资结构自我循环，存在系统性高估风险。华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，并将三星和SK海力士的资本支出扩张计划视为行业景气周期\"由盛转衰的开始\"。另外，在维持原有空头仓位方面，Burry表示尚未平仓特斯拉空头，并以轻描淡写的口吻称该仓位\"自己在慢慢缩小\"——暗示特斯拉股价下跌已令其空头仓位的名义规模自然收缩。他同时维持对Palantir的做空，并继续持有QQQ看跌期权，表明其对整体科技板块的看空立场未有松动。从今年以来的股价表现来看，Burry的部分空头押注面临一定压力。美光年内累计涨幅接近200%，英伟达上涨约10%。不过，Palantir、特斯拉和DraftKings年内均已下跌逾三成，分别录得约34%、33%和34%的跌幅，与Burry的看空方向基本吻合。在做空AI的同时，Burry也在积极布局多头仓位，且方向集中于体育博彩领域。他以100.72美元买入\"相当数量\"的Flutter Entertainment，并以23.07美元买入DraftKings。Burry在文章中写道：\"将FLUT和DKNG合并来看，作为对预测市场的一次押注，两者合计构成我较大的仓位之一。\"此外，他还增持了Molina Healthcare，买入价格为197.02美元。这一多头布局与其空头逻辑形成鲜明对比——在看空AI基础设施泡沫的同时，Burry将资金转向与科技热潮相关性较低的消费及医疗领域，折射出其对当前市场结构的整体判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EGGY":0.6,"DRAY":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"SMOG":0.6,"DKNX":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"METV":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"TSLA":1.89,"NVII":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"DKUP":0.6,"USD":0.6,"PLTD":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"WANT":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"SHLD":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"MU":1.94,"XLK":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"07788":0.6,"WATS":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"DKNG":1.84,"TSLI":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"07388":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"EYES":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"IDRV":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"09766":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"09366":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"LIT":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"BETZ":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"PLT":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"VT":0.6,"ODDS":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"HBMX":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"07366":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"NVDA":1.95,"TSLP":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"PLTR":1.87,"EFIV":0.6,"FDRV":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"GUNZ":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"07766":0.6,"SOXX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590309099836664,"gmtCreate":1785120105209,"gmtModify":1785120107510,"author":{"id":"4228385961123602","authorId":"4228385961123602","name":"HAKUBUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e39f638d455bd5828c866ff7fee9d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4228385961123602","authorIdStr":"4228385961123602"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"嗯，伊朗越打越富，美国陷入绝境","listText":"嗯，伊朗越打越富，美国陷入绝境","text":"嗯，伊朗越打越富，美国陷入绝境","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590309099836664","repostId":"2654663090","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2654663090","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785103832,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2654663090?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-27 06:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美伊暂停互袭！美方连续两晚停袭，伊军方：暂停对等打击","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2654663090","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚表示，伊朗现阶段采取的是“报复性威慑”战略，即通过实施对等打击，威慑美国不要继续违反其承诺，并迫使其遵守相关谅解备忘录。美国两名知情人士称，特朗普暂缓扩大对伊朗军事打击规模，原因是美方担忧战争升级或招致伊方更猛烈报复，进一步消耗五角大楼在中东地区的防空拦截弹储备。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚表示，伊朗现阶段采取的是“报复性威慑”战略，即通过实施对等打击，威慑美国不要继续违反其承诺，并迫使其遵守相关谅解备忘录。美国两名知情人士称，特朗普暂缓扩大对伊朗军事打击规模，原因是美方担忧战争升级或招致伊方更猛烈报复，进一步消耗五角大楼在中东地区的防空拦截弹储备。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月27日，美股三大股指期货高开，纳指期货涨1.17%，标普500指数期货涨0.64%，道琼斯指数期货涨0.52%；国际油价大跌，WTI原油期货跌5.09%，报84.76美元/桶；布伦特原油期货跌3.95%，报82.14美元/桶；现货黄金价格涨1%，报4093.90美元/盎司；现货白银价格涨2.34%，报59.54美元/盎司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8443bad2bec4541fb5c473ff624379\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"402\" tg-height=\"327\"/></p><p>美伊军事冲突出现降温迹象。特朗普下令美军暂停持续近两周的对伊空袭，伊朗军方随即宣布相应停止对等打击，双方进入短暂休战窗口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据CCTV国际时讯消息，据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社7月26日报道，伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚表示，美方过去两晚停止对伊打击后，伊朗的对等打击行动也随之停止。他将伊朗当前策略定性为"报复性威慑"——通过对等打击迫使美国遵守相关谅解备忘录。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻文章此前写道，据央视记者获悉，当地时间7月25日，特朗普收到军方新的对伊作战计划后未予批准，直接下令当天暂停空袭，终止了此前持续13天的每日打击行动。两名知情人士透露，此举一方面意在为外交谈判留出空间，另一方面是特朗普判断，在不重启大规模军事行动的前提下，现有空袭已基本达到效果上限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间25日，美国两名知情人士称，<strong>美国总统特朗普暂缓扩大对伊朗军事打击规模，原因是美方担忧战争升级或招致伊方更猛烈报复，进一步消耗五角大楼在中东地区的防空拦截弹储备。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两名知情人士表示，特朗普24日与高级顾问和政府高级官员召开会议，聚焦五角大楼“爱国者”等防空弹药库存减少的问题。一名政府高官提及，伊朗弹道导弹日前突破美防空系统的防御，造成3名驻约旦美军士兵死亡。</p><h2 id=\"id_2578272913\">伊朗宣示对等战略，公布美军受损清单</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚对此次互停打击给出了明确的战略解读。他表示，<strong>伊朗现阶段采取的是"报复性威慑"战略，核心逻辑是通过实施对等打击，威慑美国不要继续违反其承诺。</strong>他的表态将伊朗的停火定性为一种主动的战略选择，而非被动妥协。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，据伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队于当地时间7月25日晚公布了一份美军军事资产受损清单，称这是伊朗武装部队回应美国袭击期间对美军目标实施打击的结果。<strong>目前，这一清单尚未得到美国军方证实。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0673011b178fac2e48738960677613\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"604\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4119090196\">伊朗军方警告地面战风险，称已备战各类情景</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻，伊朗武装部队发言人谢卡尔奇26日表示，美国当前面临的局势"混乱且对其不利"，美方在霍尔木兹海峡以及削弱伊朗方面"均未能实现既定目标"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谢卡尔奇称，美方目前正在寻求新的战略，不排除退出战争的可能，但他强调，这"将取决于以色列方面是否同意"。他还指出，随着以色列总理内塔尼亚胡访问美国，<strong>未来伊朗可能面对空袭或地面军事行动等情景，</strong>而在地面战选项中，美国"将面临更大的脆弱性"。谢卡尔奇表示，伊朗已为各种可能出现的情况做好充分准备。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，CCTV国际时讯称，据伊朗媒体今天（7月26日）报道，伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚也表示<strong>，美国可能的选择之一是退出战争，另一可能的选择是在以方压力下发动大规模空袭，还有一个选择是美国可能发动地面行动。伊朗将观察美国接下来有何举动，并已为各种可能做好准备。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d018bba5f931c1132c4478a61c2ee36\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"552\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还表示，目前战争涉及的地理范围已经扩展到曼德海峡，伊朗的行动也涵盖了从约旦到波斯湾沿岸各国的美军目标。</p><h2 id=\"id_84833622\">霍尔木兹海峡谈判取得进展，本周末或见分晓</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得关注的是，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃26日确认，24日至25日伊朗与阿曼在德黑兰举行多轮副外长级会谈，双方围绕确保霍尔木兹海峡船舶安全通行的共同原则和具体操作机制深入交换意见。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴加埃称会谈"富有成效"，并取得一定进展，阿曼代表团已于25日下午离开德黑兰，但双方将在技术和政治层面继续保持磋商。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻文章写道，据两名了解谈判情况的地区消息人士表示，阿曼与伊朗有望在本周末达成协议，届时特朗普将决定是否接受这一方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴加埃同时指出，目前霍尔木兹海峡船舶通航状况尚未发生变化。霍尔木兹海峡是全球重要的石油运输通道，其通航安排的谈判进展，将是外界判断此轮美伊军事紧张能否转向实质性缓和的核心观察窗口。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美伊暂停互袭！美方连续两晚停袭，伊军方：暂停对等打击</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美伊暂停互袭！美方连续两晚停袭，伊军方：暂停对等打击\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-27 06:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚表示，伊朗现阶段采取的是“报复性威慑”战略，即通过实施对等打击，威慑美国不要继续违反其承诺，并迫使其遵守相关谅解备忘录。美国两名知情人士称，特朗普暂缓扩大对伊朗军事打击规模，原因是美方担忧战争升级或招致伊方更猛烈报复，进一步消耗五角大楼在中东地区的防空拦截弹储备。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月27日，美股三大股指期货高开，纳指期货涨1.17%，标普500指数期货涨0.64%，道琼斯指数期货涨0.52%；国际油价大跌，WTI原油期货跌5.09%，报84.76美元/桶；布伦特原油期货跌3.95%，报82.14美元/桶；现货黄金价格涨1%，报4093.90美元/盎司；现货白银价格涨2.34%，报59.54美元/盎司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8443bad2bec4541fb5c473ff624379\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"402\" tg-height=\"327\"/></p><p>美伊军事冲突出现降温迹象。特朗普下令美军暂停持续近两周的对伊空袭，伊朗军方随即宣布相应停止对等打击，双方进入短暂休战窗口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据CCTV国际时讯消息，据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社7月26日报道，伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚表示，美方过去两晚停止对伊打击后，伊朗的对等打击行动也随之停止。他将伊朗当前策略定性为"报复性威慑"——通过对等打击迫使美国遵守相关谅解备忘录。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻文章此前写道，据央视记者获悉，当地时间7月25日，特朗普收到军方新的对伊作战计划后未予批准，直接下令当天暂停空袭，终止了此前持续13天的每日打击行动。两名知情人士透露，此举一方面意在为外交谈判留出空间，另一方面是特朗普判断，在不重启大规模军事行动的前提下，现有空袭已基本达到效果上限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间25日，美国两名知情人士称，<strong>美国总统特朗普暂缓扩大对伊朗军事打击规模，原因是美方担忧战争升级或招致伊方更猛烈报复，进一步消耗五角大楼在中东地区的防空拦截弹储备。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两名知情人士表示，特朗普24日与高级顾问和政府高级官员召开会议，聚焦五角大楼“爱国者”等防空弹药库存减少的问题。一名政府高官提及，伊朗弹道导弹日前突破美防空系统的防御，造成3名驻约旦美军士兵死亡。</p><h2 id=\"id_2578272913\">伊朗宣示对等战略，公布美军受损清单</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚对此次互停打击给出了明确的战略解读。他表示，<strong>伊朗现阶段采取的是"报复性威慑"战略，核心逻辑是通过实施对等打击，威慑美国不要继续违反其承诺。</strong>他的表态将伊朗的停火定性为一种主动的战略选择，而非被动妥协。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，据伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队于当地时间7月25日晚公布了一份美军军事资产受损清单，称这是伊朗武装部队回应美国袭击期间对美军目标实施打击的结果。<strong>目前，这一清单尚未得到美国军方证实。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0673011b178fac2e48738960677613\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"604\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4119090196\">伊朗军方警告地面战风险，称已备战各类情景</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据央视新闻，伊朗武装部队发言人谢卡尔奇26日表示，美国当前面临的局势"混乱且对其不利"，美方在霍尔木兹海峡以及削弱伊朗方面"均未能实现既定目标"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谢卡尔奇称，美方目前正在寻求新的战略，不排除退出战争的可能，但他强调，这"将取决于以色列方面是否同意"。他还指出，随着以色列总理内塔尼亚胡访问美国，<strong>未来伊朗可能面对空袭或地面军事行动等情景，</strong>而在地面战选项中，美国"将面临更大的脆弱性"。谢卡尔奇表示，伊朗已为各种可能出现的情况做好充分准备。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，CCTV国际时讯称，据伊朗媒体今天（7月26日）报道，伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚也表示<strong>，美国可能的选择之一是退出战争，另一可能的选择是在以方压力下发动大规模空袭，还有一个选择是美国可能发动地面行动。伊朗将观察美国接下来有何举动，并已为各种可能做好准备。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d018bba5f931c1132c4478a61c2ee36\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"552\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还表示，目前战争涉及的地理范围已经扩展到曼德海峡，伊朗的行动也涵盖了从约旦到波斯湾沿岸各国的美军目标。</p><h2 id=\"id_84833622\">霍尔木兹海峡谈判取得进展，本周末或见分晓</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得关注的是，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃26日确认，24日至25日伊朗与阿曼在德黑兰举行多轮副外长级会谈，双方围绕确保霍尔木兹海峡船舶安全通行的共同原则和具体操作机制深入交换意见。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴加埃称会谈"富有成效"，并取得一定进展，阿曼代表团已于25日下午离开德黑兰，但双方将在技术和政治层面继续保持磋商。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻文章写道，据两名了解谈判情况的地区消息人士表示，阿曼与伊朗有望在本周末达成协议，届时特朗普将决定是否接受这一方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴加埃同时指出，目前霍尔木兹海峡船舶通航状况尚未发生变化。霍尔木兹海峡是全球重要的石油运输通道，其通航安排的谈判进展，将是外界判断此轮美伊军事紧张能否转向实质性缓和的核心观察窗口。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8deb964fe83a788e7ae02a962af884","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777962","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2654663090","content_text":"伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚表示，伊朗现阶段采取的是“报复性威慑”战略，即通过实施对等打击，威慑美国不要继续违反其承诺，并迫使其遵守相关谅解备忘录。美国两名知情人士称，特朗普暂缓扩大对伊朗军事打击规模，原因是美方担忧战争升级或招致伊方更猛烈报复，进一步消耗五角大楼在中东地区的防空拦截弹储备。7月27日，美股三大股指期货高开，纳指期货涨1.17%，标普500指数期货涨0.64%，道琼斯指数期货涨0.52%；国际油价大跌，WTI原油期货跌5.09%，报84.76美元/桶；布伦特原油期货跌3.95%，报82.14美元/桶；现货黄金价格涨1%，报4093.90美元/盎司；现货白银价格涨2.34%，报59.54美元/盎司。美伊军事冲突出现降温迹象。特朗普下令美军暂停持续近两周的对伊空袭，伊朗军方随即宣布相应停止对等打击，双方进入短暂休战窗口。据CCTV国际时讯消息，据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社7月26日报道，伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚表示，美方过去两晚停止对伊打击后，伊朗的对等打击行动也随之停止。他将伊朗当前策略定性为\"报复性威慑\"——通过对等打击迫使美国遵守相关谅解备忘录。华尔街见闻文章此前写道，据央视记者获悉，当地时间7月25日，特朗普收到军方新的对伊作战计划后未予批准，直接下令当天暂停空袭，终止了此前持续13天的每日打击行动。两名知情人士透露，此举一方面意在为外交谈判留出空间，另一方面是特朗普判断，在不重启大规模军事行动的前提下，现有空袭已基本达到效果上限。据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间25日，美国两名知情人士称，美国总统特朗普暂缓扩大对伊朗军事打击规模，原因是美方担忧战争升级或招致伊方更猛烈报复，进一步消耗五角大楼在中东地区的防空拦截弹储备。两名知情人士表示，特朗普24日与高级顾问和政府高级官员召开会议，聚焦五角大楼“爱国者”等防空弹药库存减少的问题。一名政府高官提及，伊朗弹道导弹日前突破美防空系统的防御，造成3名驻约旦美军士兵死亡。伊朗宣示对等战略，公布美军受损清单伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚对此次互停打击给出了明确的战略解读。他表示，伊朗现阶段采取的是\"报复性威慑\"战略，核心逻辑是通过实施对等打击，威慑美国不要继续违反其承诺。他的表态将伊朗的停火定性为一种主动的战略选择，而非被动妥协。与此同时，据伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队于当地时间7月25日晚公布了一份美军军事资产受损清单，称这是伊朗武装部队回应美国袭击期间对美军目标实施打击的结果。目前，这一清单尚未得到美国军方证实。伊朗军方警告地面战风险，称已备战各类情景据央视新闻，伊朗武装部队发言人谢卡尔奇26日表示，美国当前面临的局势\"混乱且对其不利\"，美方在霍尔木兹海峡以及削弱伊朗方面\"均未能实现既定目标\"。谢卡尔奇称，美方目前正在寻求新的战略，不排除退出战争的可能，但他强调，这\"将取决于以色列方面是否同意\"。他还指出，随着以色列总理内塔尼亚胡访问美国，未来伊朗可能面对空袭或地面军事行动等情景，而在地面战选项中，美国\"将面临更大的脆弱性\"。谢卡尔奇表示，伊朗已为各种可能出现的情况做好充分准备。与此同时，CCTV国际时讯称，据伊朗媒体今天（7月26日）报道，伊朗陆军发言人阿克拉米尼亚也表示，美国可能的选择之一是退出战争，另一可能的选择是在以方压力下发动大规模空袭，还有一个选择是美国可能发动地面行动。伊朗将观察美国接下来有何举动，并已为各种可能做好准备。他还表示，目前战争涉及的地理范围已经扩展到曼德海峡，伊朗的行动也涵盖了从约旦到波斯湾沿岸各国的美军目标。霍尔木兹海峡谈判取得进展，本周末或见分晓值得关注的是，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃26日确认，24日至25日伊朗与阿曼在德黑兰举行多轮副外长级会谈，双方围绕确保霍尔木兹海峡船舶安全通行的共同原则和具体操作机制深入交换意见。巴加埃称会谈\"富有成效\"，并取得一定进展，阿曼代表团已于25日下午离开德黑兰，但双方将在技术和政治层面继续保持磋商。华尔街见闻文章写道，据两名了解谈判情况的地区消息人士表示，阿曼与伊朗有望在本周末达成协议，届时特朗普将决定是否接受这一方案。巴加埃同时指出，目前霍尔木兹海峡船舶通航状况尚未发生变化。霍尔木兹海峡是全球重要的石油运输通道，其通航安排的谈判进展，将是外界判断此轮美伊军事紧张能否转向实质性缓和的核心观察窗口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":2,"MNQ2612":2,"BZmain":2,"YMmain":2,"CLmain":2,"MNQmain":2,"ESmain":2,"MNQ2603":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}