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2021-06-21

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Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并盈利</blockquote>

Summary Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and

Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并盈利</blockquote>

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While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.<blockquote>许多投资者误解了Twilio(TWLO)的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然该公司可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]后，该公司正在将自己打造成拥有一流客户参与平台的CPaaS领导者：Segment。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO作为满足全球客户参与需求的平台，处于有利地位。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在他们未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现TWLO的估值实际上可能低于SaaS领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote> Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock<blockquote>Twilio不是典型的SaaS股票</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">DBNER. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>DBNER.数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER&nbsp;“increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”<blockquote>Twilio作为CPaaS的价值主张与典型的SaaS公司不同，典型的SaaS公司通过定期订阅充分利用其收入，并通过交叉销售到其他产品或通过占据更多席位向客户追加销售来增加或维持其DBNER或DBNRR。TWLO的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，公司会获得更多收入，而当客户更少使用平台时，公司会获得更少收入。因此，由于它是基于使用情况的，我们只需观察其DBNER趋势就可以轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO的DBNER“当此类活跃客户帐户增加对产品的使用、将产品的使用扩展到新应用程序时，Twilio基于美元的净扩张率就会下降。”</blockquote> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a&nbsp;normalized DBNER in the range of 130s&nbsp;moving forward.<blockquote>因此，我们可以从TWLO强劲的DBNER趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，这实际上在COVID-19袭击之前就已经开始了。TWLO的DBNER也基本保持一致，该公司也有信心在130秒范围内实现标准化DBNER。</blockquote> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a&nbsp;recent article on Teladoc&nbsp;(TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.<blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是COVID-19现象的市场，没有可持续性。我们之前曾在Teladoc(TDOC)最近的一篇文章中介绍过为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行爆发之前就开始了，并且仍处于增长阶段的早期，因为该市场预计在未来的CAGR增长率将超过20%10年。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动TWLO作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增加。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\">SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance<blockquote>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：原子财经</blockquote> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses&nbsp;usage-based pricing: Snowflake&nbsp;(SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.<blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS空间时尤其如此。投资者很难找到许多像TWLO（中位数：120%）这样的NRR始终高于130%的公司。另一家同样采用基于使用量定价的公司：Snowflake(SNOW)最近一个季度的NRR为168%。投资者可能认为，如果客户使用率大幅下降，这些采用基于使用率定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此具有粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你使用它，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收具有固有的强大推动力，如果没有基于使用情况的模型，典型的基于订阅的ARR模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote> Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition<blockquote>市场确实低估了Segment的收购</blockquote> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the&nbsp;No.1 CDP worldwide&nbsp;ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):<blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了Segment对TWLO的收购。首先，Segment是IDC排名的全球第一的CDP，因此我们认为TWLO在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们来说有多重要（我们强调）：</blockquote> We think the&nbsp; industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience. Notwithstanding the&nbsp;significant dilution&nbsp;funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.<blockquote>我们认为Segment plus Twilio的工业逻辑只是一个——这不仅仅是一个本垒打。这是个大满贯.我认为对我们来说，将数据能力与通信能力结合起来对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管大部分股权交易的资金大幅稀释，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳CDP的战略重要性，这对于TWLO的基础CPaaS产品至关重要，因为它现在为客户提供了访问权限通过跨不同系统的统一视图进行实时分析。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\">Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data<blockquote>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告主感知；珍藏数据</blockquote> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.<blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中加入CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查中列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33%至45%）表示各自类别有“显著改善”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\">Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida<blockquote>营销技术决策者认为CDP的好处。数据来源：广告主感知；统一的</blockquote> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”<blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们跨多个来源统一数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说：“消费者不再仅仅局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合在一起，根据他们正在做的事情提供日益个性化的内容——随时随地，并通过他们喜欢的渠道。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\">Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners<blockquote>美国营销人员为应对第三方cookies弃用的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周刊；Phronesis合作伙伴</blockquote> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use&nbsp;first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is&nbsp;least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:<blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将被弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓解这种损失影响的方法，其中大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDP主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是最重要的客户数据来源，因为它提供了最准确和可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，这一点也得到了TWLO的认可当被问及TWLO是否因其第一方数据访问而看到隐私法规的任何推动力时，该公司回答道：</blockquote> 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp<blockquote>100%.我认为你说到点子上了，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们在这件事上非常正确。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管家。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。因此，我确实认为数据和数据监管对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。美国与他人合作共享第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；LiveRamp</blockquote> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.<blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的协作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个类似CDP的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote> Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable<blockquote>是的，我们知道公司还没有盈利</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\">EBIT margin, SG&amp;A margin, R&amp;D margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&amp;A and R&amp;D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:<blockquote>然而，应该提醒投资者，TWLO尚未实现营业利润，尽管该公司已将长期营业利润率定为28%。投资者应该明白，TWLO也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其较高的SG&amp;A和R&amp;D利润率可以看出），因为它看到了很多投资机会，也可能收购，该公司已进行了多项备受瞩目的收购，如Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip等。公司极力强调了这一点：</blockquote> But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen. Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.<blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不可能盈利。我的意思是，我们的增长水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们公司的平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吗？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，要求TWLO投资者表现出极大的耐心，给TWLO时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。市场普遍预测，该公司21财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过30%。TWLO还承诺在未来四年内将其收入增长30%以上，因此投资者需要给TWLO时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求2至3年期限的短期投资者，或者一家将盈利能力置于增长之上的公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\">Revenue metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>收入指标。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> Valuations<blockquote>估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\">SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.<blockquote>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\">TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>TWLO EV/Fwd修订版数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.<blockquote>当我们考虑TWLO的EV/FY+1倍数为20.6倍，而SaaS的中位数为26.3倍时，可以合理地认为TWLO看起来并不昂贵。同样值得注意的是，TWLO预计也将快速增长，我们预计其市盈率将随着时间的推移大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持不变，如果TWLO继续实现其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域还有更多公司的估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote> Price Action and Technical Analysis<blockquote>价格行为和技术分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.<blockquote>我们认为TWLO总体上具有强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，这种偏差在过去3年中仅被COVID-19熊市打断过一次。价格最近在300美元左右的50W移动平均线上找到了支撑，此后价格逐渐从最近的暴跌中恢复。</blockquote> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.<blockquote>虽然我们更希望在300美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平发起或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在405美元水平附近增加，因为我们认为该水平应该有近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅逢低的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试50W支撑位，其中也有可能增加320美元的水平。</blockquote> Wrapping It All Up<blockquote>把这一切包起来</blockquote> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.<blockquote>Twilio是一只增长非常高的股票，它已将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。投资者被要求给TWLO时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力，因为该公司将自己打造成多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先企业。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并盈利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并盈利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-21 17:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li> <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li> <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li> <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">Drew Angerer/Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Twilio被误解为一只只受益于COVID-19顺风的股票，当重新开业成为中心舞台时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项关键收购继续增强实力，其中该部门交易最为重要。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能会更加需要Twilio。</li><li>按照目前的估值和133%的高DBNER，投资者应该利用最近的价格疲软立即进入Twilio。</li></ul>德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> NewsInvestment Thesis<blockquote>新闻投资论文</blockquote> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.<blockquote>许多投资者误解了Twilio(TWLO)的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然该公司可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]后，该公司正在将自己打造成拥有一流客户参与平台的CPaaS领导者：Segment。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO作为满足全球客户参与需求的平台，处于有利地位。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在他们未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现TWLO的估值实际上可能低于SaaS领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote> Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock<blockquote>Twilio不是典型的SaaS股票</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">DBNER. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>DBNER.数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER&nbsp;“increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”<blockquote>Twilio作为CPaaS的价值主张与典型的SaaS公司不同，典型的SaaS公司通过定期订阅充分利用其收入，并通过交叉销售到其他产品或通过占据更多席位向客户追加销售来增加或维持其DBNER或DBNRR。TWLO的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，公司会获得更多收入，而当客户更少使用平台时，公司会获得更少收入。因此，由于它是基于使用情况的，我们只需观察其DBNER趋势就可以轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO的DBNER“当此类活跃客户帐户增加对产品的使用、将产品的使用扩展到新应用程序时，Twilio基于美元的净扩张率就会下降。”</blockquote> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a&nbsp;normalized DBNER in the range of 130s&nbsp;moving forward.<blockquote>因此，我们可以从TWLO强劲的DBNER趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，这实际上在COVID-19袭击之前就已经开始了。TWLO的DBNER也基本保持一致，该公司也有信心在130秒范围内实现标准化DBNER。</blockquote> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a&nbsp;recent article on Teladoc&nbsp;(TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.<blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是COVID-19现象的市场，没有可持续性。我们之前曾在Teladoc(TDOC)最近的一篇文章中介绍过为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行爆发之前就开始了，并且仍处于增长阶段的早期，因为该市场预计在未来的CAGR增长率将超过20%10年。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动TWLO作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增加。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\">SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance<blockquote>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：原子财经</blockquote> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses&nbsp;usage-based pricing: Snowflake&nbsp;(SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.<blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS空间时尤其如此。投资者很难找到许多像TWLO（中位数：120%）这样的NRR始终高于130%的公司。另一家同样采用基于使用量定价的公司：Snowflake(SNOW)最近一个季度的NRR为168%。投资者可能认为，如果客户使用率大幅下降，这些采用基于使用率定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此具有粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你使用它，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收具有固有的强大推动力，如果没有基于使用情况的模型，典型的基于订阅的ARR模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote> Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition<blockquote>市场确实低估了Segment的收购</blockquote> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the&nbsp;No.1 CDP worldwide&nbsp;ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):<blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了Segment对TWLO的收购。首先，Segment是IDC排名的全球第一的CDP，因此我们认为TWLO在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们来说有多重要（我们强调）：</blockquote> We think the&nbsp; industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience. Notwithstanding the&nbsp;significant dilution&nbsp;funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.<blockquote>我们认为Segment plus Twilio的工业逻辑只是一个——这不仅仅是一个本垒打。这是个大满贯.我认为对我们来说，将数据能力与通信能力结合起来对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管大部分股权交易的资金大幅稀释，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳CDP的战略重要性，这对于TWLO的基础CPaaS产品至关重要，因为它现在为客户提供了访问权限通过跨不同系统的统一视图进行实时分析。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\">Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data<blockquote>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告主感知；珍藏数据</blockquote> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.<blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中加入CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查中列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33%至45%）表示各自类别有“显著改善”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\">Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida<blockquote>营销技术决策者认为CDP的好处。数据来源：广告主感知；统一的</blockquote> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”<blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们跨多个来源统一数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说：“消费者不再仅仅局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合在一起，根据他们正在做的事情提供日益个性化的内容——随时随地，并通过他们喜欢的渠道。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\">Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners<blockquote>美国营销人员为应对第三方cookies弃用的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周刊；Phronesis合作伙伴</blockquote> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use&nbsp;first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is&nbsp;least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:<blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将被弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓解这种损失影响的方法，其中大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDP主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是最重要的客户数据来源，因为它提供了最准确和可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，这一点也得到了TWLO的认可当被问及TWLO是否因其第一方数据访问而看到隐私法规的任何推动力时，该公司回答道：</blockquote> 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp<blockquote>100%.我认为你说到点子上了，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们在这件事上非常正确。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管家。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。因此，我确实认为数据和数据监管对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。美国与他人合作共享第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；LiveRamp</blockquote> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.<blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的协作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个类似CDP的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote> Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable<blockquote>是的，我们知道公司还没有盈利</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\">EBIT margin, SG&amp;A margin, R&amp;D margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&amp;A and R&amp;D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:<blockquote>然而，应该提醒投资者，TWLO尚未实现营业利润，尽管该公司已将长期营业利润率定为28%。投资者应该明白，TWLO也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其较高的SG&amp;A和R&amp;D利润率可以看出），因为它看到了很多投资机会，也可能收购，该公司已进行了多项备受瞩目的收购，如Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip等。公司极力强调了这一点：</blockquote> But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen. Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.<blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不可能盈利。我的意思是，我们的增长水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们公司的平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吗？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，要求TWLO投资者表现出极大的耐心，给TWLO时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。市场普遍预测，该公司21财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过30%。TWLO还承诺在未来四年内将其收入增长30%以上，因此投资者需要给TWLO时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求2至3年期限的短期投资者，或者一家将盈利能力置于增长之上的公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\">Revenue metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>收入指标。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> Valuations<blockquote>估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\">SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.<blockquote>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\">TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>TWLO EV/Fwd修订版数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.<blockquote>当我们考虑TWLO的EV/FY+1倍数为20.6倍，而SaaS的中位数为26.3倍时，可以合理地认为TWLO看起来并不昂贵。同样值得注意的是，TWLO预计也将快速增长，我们预计其市盈率将随着时间的推移大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持不变，如果TWLO继续实现其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域还有更多公司的估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote> Price Action and Technical Analysis<blockquote>价格行为和技术分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.<blockquote>我们认为TWLO总体上具有强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，这种偏差在过去3年中仅被COVID-19熊市打断过一次。价格最近在300美元左右的50W移动平均线上找到了支撑，此后价格逐渐从最近的暴跌中恢复。</blockquote> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.<blockquote>虽然我们更希望在300美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平发起或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在405美元水平附近增加，因为我们认为该水平应该有近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅逢低的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试50W支撑位，其中也有可能增加320美元的水平。</blockquote> Wrapping It All Up<blockquote>把这一切包起来</blockquote> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.<blockquote>Twilio是一只增长非常高的股票，它已将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。投资者被要求给TWLO时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力，因为该公司将自己打造成多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先企业。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107200738","content_text":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.\nMeanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.\nAs a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.\nAt its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.\n\nDrew Angerer/Getty Images\nNewsInvestment Thesis\nMany investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.\nTwilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock\nDBNER. Data source: Company filings\nTwilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER “increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”\nTherefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a normalized DBNER in the range of 130s moving forward.\nMoreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a recent article on Teladoc (TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.\nSaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance\nThis is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses usage-based pricing: Snowflake (SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.\nMarket Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition\nIn our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the No.1 CDP worldwide ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):\n\n We think the \n industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.\n\nNotwithstanding the significant dilution funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.\nLevel of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data\nWe could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.\nBenefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida\nIn addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”\nMeasures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners\nMoreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:\n\n 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.\n\nShare of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp\nIn order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.\nYes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable\nEBIT margin, SG&A margin, R&D margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&A and R&D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:\n\n But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.\n\nTherefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.\nRevenue metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nValuations\nSaaS EV / 2021 Rev.\nTWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nWe think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.\nAlthough we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.\nWrapping It All Up\nTwilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWLO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1195,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}