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- zazalazazala
  ·2021-06-24
  Uppss
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- zazalazazala
  ·2021-06-24
  Record breaker
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- zazalazazala
  ·2021-06-22
  Good article
  Analysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端波动后，投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote>
  NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to
  Analysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端波动后，投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote>
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- zazalazazala
  ·2021-06-21
  Power
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- zazalazazala
  ·2021-06-21
  Powers
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- zazalazazala
  ·2021-06-21
  Good job
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- zazalazazala
  ·2021-06-21
  Im new here
  Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote>
  Summary Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and
  Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote>
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article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120745605","repostId":"1160989283","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160989283","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624339657,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160989283?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 13:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Analysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端波动后，投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160989283","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers to calm market volatility, saying the reaction to the Fed's June meeting was too extreme.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 本周所有人的目光都集中在美国央行身上，一些投资者期待美联储议长的游行来平息市场波动，称对美联储6月会议的反应过于极端。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed last week signaled a potentially tougher stance on inflation and shifted projections for its first two rate hikes into 2023, sparking a selloff in U.S. stocks, boosting the dollar and flattening the Treasury yield curve in its fastest re-shaping since March 2020, according to Citi analysts.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周暗示可能对通胀采取更强硬的立场，并将前两次加息的预测推迟至 2023 年，引发美国股市抛售，提振美元并拉平国债收益率曲线，这是自 2020 年 3 月以来最快的重塑。花旗分析师表示。</blockquote></p><p> However, those moves partially reversed on Monday as stocks rebounded and the dollar retreated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着股市反弹和美元回落，这些走势在周一部分逆转。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are now anticipating what message will come from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, due to speak before Congress on Tuesday at 2 pm ET (1800 GMT), as well as several other key Fed officials making appearances throughout the week. Data is also due on housing and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.</p><p><blockquote>投资者现在正在期待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）将于美国东部时间周二下午 2 点（格林尼治标准时间 1800）在国会发表讲话，以及本周其他几位美联储主要官员将露面。住房和美联储首选通胀指标的数据也将公布。</blockquote></p><p> \"I expect Powell will try to reverse some of the damage last week's Fed meeting did,\" said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. \"I don't think they intended to communicate such a hawkish message.\"</p><p><blockquote>布朗咨询公司固定收益主管汤姆·格拉夫表示：“我预计鲍威尔将试图扭转上周美联储会议造成的部分损害。”“我不认为他们有意传达如此鹰派的信息。”</blockquote></p><p> Graff pointed to the yield curve on Monday \"steepening a little which might show the market is expecting a little reversal.\"</p><p><blockquote>格拉夫指出，周一的收益率曲线“略微陡峭，这可能表明市场预计会出现小幅逆转。”</blockquote></p><p> In prepared remarks from Powell released by the Fed late Monday afternoon ahead of the his congressional hearing, the Fed chairman said he regards the current jump in inflation, in fact, as likely to fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周一下午晚些时候在国会听证会前发布了鲍威尔准备好的讲话，这位美联储主席表示，他认为目前的通胀飙升实际上可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p> \"I think that this is just a continuation of what they said last week that things are improving, things are getting better but we're not there yet, and I think that's what this speaks to,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p><p><blockquote>罗伯特·帕夫利克 (Robert Pavlik) 表示：“我认为这只是他们上周所说的话的延续，即情况正在改善，情况正在变得更好，但我们还没有到那里，我认为这就是所说的。”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德的达科他财富财富公司。</blockquote></p><p> REFLATION TRADE IN DANGER?</p><p><blockquote>再通胀贸易处于危险之中？</blockquote></p><p> At stake is the market's view on whether the Fed has grown hawkish enough to endanger the so-called reflation trade, a bet on a powerful U.S. growth revival that has over the last several months helped boost prices for shares of economically sensitive companies, while weighing on the dollar and lifting yields. Some of those trades unwound last week.</p><p><blockquote>市场对美联储是否已经变得足够鹰派以危及所谓的再通胀交易的看法岌岌可危，这是对美国经济强劲复苏的押注，在过去几个月中，美国经济增长复苏帮助提振了经济敏感公司的股票价格，同时打压美元并推高收益率。其中一些交易上周解除。</blockquote></p><p> \"We saw big drama playing out in some of the reflation trades,\" said Thanos Bardas, co-head of global investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman.</p><p><blockquote>Neuberger Berman 全球投资级固定收益联席主管 Thanos Bardas 表示：“我们看到一些通胀再膨胀交易中上演了大戏。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The market over-reaction was pretty evident,\" he said, adding that he expects cooler heads to prevail this week.</p><p><blockquote>“市场过度反应非常明显，”他表示，并补充说，他预计本周将出现冷静的头脑。</blockquote></p><p> Others also saw a reversal of some of those positions likely. Analysts at TD Securities said the yield curve flattening had been \"extreme.\"</p><p><blockquote>其他人也认为其中一些立场可能会逆转。道明证券分析师表示，收益率曲线趋平是“极端的”。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve flattens when shorter-dated rates, which are more sensitive to interest-rate policy, move faster than longer-dated rates, indicating investors believe monetary policy could tighten before the economy has fully recovered from the coronavirus recession.</p><p><blockquote>当对利率政策更敏感的短期利率比长期利率变动更快时，收益率曲线会变平，这表明投资者认为在经济从冠状病毒衰退中完全复苏之前，货币政策可能会收紧。</blockquote></p><p> \"This past week showed crowded investor positioning for a steepening curve can cause the boat to flip over as flattening can occur quickly on any disinflationary developments,\" said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist, John Hancock Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>约翰·汉考克投资管理公司 (John Hancock Investment Management) 联席首席投资策略师马特·米斯金 (Matt Miskin) 表示：“过去一周表明，投资者对曲线陡峭的拥挤定位可能会导致局势倾覆，因为任何通货紧缩的发展都可能很快出现趋平。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index, an options based measure of expectations for stock market gyrations, fell on Monday after touching a 4-week high earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index was at a two-week high, while the MOVE index, a bond market volatility gauge was at a two-month high.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数是衡量股市波动预期的基于期权的指标，在盘中早些时候触及 4 周高点后，周一下跌。与此同时，德意志银行货币波动性指数处于两周高点，而衡量债券市场波动性的 MOVE 指数处于两个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> The parade of Fed speakers began on Monday morning, with two regional officials saying that a faster withdrawal from the central bank's bond purchase program could give it more leeway in deciding when to raise interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储发言人的游行于周一上午开始，两名地区官员表示，更快地退出美联储债券购买计划可能会给美联储更多决定何时加息的余地。</blockquote></p><p> Other speakers this week include Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, who leans hawkish. [FED/DIARY]</p><p><blockquote>本周的其他演讲者包括倾向于鹰派的克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长洛雷塔·梅斯特。[美联储/日记]</blockquote></p><p> Some investors were looking at the week as an opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者将本周视为一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are telling folks if you have a 12-month outlook that we would be looking at this pullback as an opportunity to enter the value trade,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, adding: \"It is a big week.\"</p><p><blockquote>亚特兰大 Truist Advisory Services 首席市场策略师 Keith Lerner 表示：“我们告诉人们，如果你有 12 个月的展望，我们会将这次回调视为进入价值交易的机会。”他补充道：“这是重要的一周。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端波动后，投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端波动后，投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 13:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers to calm market volatility, saying the reaction to the Fed's June meeting was too extreme.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 本周所有人的目光都集中在美国央行身上，一些投资者期待美联储议长的游行来平息市场波动，称对美联储6月会议的反应过于极端。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed last week signaled a potentially tougher stance on inflation and shifted projections for its first two rate hikes into 2023, sparking a selloff in U.S. stocks, boosting the dollar and flattening the Treasury yield curve in its fastest re-shaping since March 2020, according to Citi analysts.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周暗示可能对通胀采取更强硬的立场，并将前两次加息的预测推迟至 2023 年，引发美国股市抛售，提振美元并拉平国债收益率曲线，这是自 2020 年 3 月以来最快的重塑。花旗分析师表示。</blockquote></p><p> However, those moves partially reversed on Monday as stocks rebounded and the dollar retreated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着股市反弹和美元回落，这些走势在周一部分逆转。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are now anticipating what message will come from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, due to speak before Congress on Tuesday at 2 pm ET (1800 GMT), as well as several other key Fed officials making appearances throughout the week. Data is also due on housing and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.</p><p><blockquote>投资者现在正在期待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）将于美国东部时间周二下午 2 点（格林尼治标准时间 1800）在国会发表讲话，以及本周其他几位美联储主要官员将露面。住房和美联储首选通胀指标的数据也将公布。</blockquote></p><p> \"I expect Powell will try to reverse some of the damage last week's Fed meeting did,\" said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. \"I don't think they intended to communicate such a hawkish message.\"</p><p><blockquote>布朗咨询公司固定收益主管汤姆·格拉夫表示：“我预计鲍威尔将试图扭转上周美联储会议造成的部分损害。”“我不认为他们有意传达如此鹰派的信息。”</blockquote></p><p> Graff pointed to the yield curve on Monday \"steepening a little which might show the market is expecting a little reversal.\"</p><p><blockquote>格拉夫指出，周一的收益率曲线“略微陡峭，这可能表明市场预计会出现小幅逆转。”</blockquote></p><p> In prepared remarks from Powell released by the Fed late Monday afternoon ahead of the his congressional hearing, the Fed chairman said he regards the current jump in inflation, in fact, as likely to fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周一下午晚些时候在国会听证会前发布了鲍威尔准备好的讲话，这位美联储主席表示，他认为目前的通胀飙升实际上可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p> \"I think that this is just a continuation of what they said last week that things are improving, things are getting better but we're not there yet, and I think that's what this speaks to,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p><p><blockquote>罗伯特·帕夫利克 (Robert Pavlik) 表示：“我认为这只是他们上周所说的话的延续，即情况正在改善，情况正在变得更好，但我们还没有到那里，我认为这就是所说的。”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德的达科他财富财富公司。</blockquote></p><p> REFLATION TRADE IN DANGER?</p><p><blockquote>再通胀贸易处于危险之中？</blockquote></p><p> At stake is the market's view on whether the Fed has grown hawkish enough to endanger the so-called reflation trade, a bet on a powerful U.S. growth revival that has over the last several months helped boost prices for shares of economically sensitive companies, while weighing on the dollar and lifting yields. Some of those trades unwound last week.</p><p><blockquote>市场对美联储是否已经变得足够鹰派以危及所谓的再通胀交易的看法岌岌可危，这是对美国经济强劲复苏的押注，在过去几个月中，美国经济增长复苏帮助提振了经济敏感公司的股票价格，同时打压美元并推高收益率。其中一些交易上周解除。</blockquote></p><p> \"We saw big drama playing out in some of the reflation trades,\" said Thanos Bardas, co-head of global investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman.</p><p><blockquote>Neuberger Berman 全球投资级固定收益联席主管 Thanos Bardas 表示：“我们看到一些通胀再膨胀交易中上演了大戏。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The market over-reaction was pretty evident,\" he said, adding that he expects cooler heads to prevail this week.</p><p><blockquote>“市场过度反应非常明显，”他表示，并补充说，他预计本周将出现冷静的头脑。</blockquote></p><p> Others also saw a reversal of some of those positions likely. Analysts at TD Securities said the yield curve flattening had been \"extreme.\"</p><p><blockquote>其他人也认为其中一些立场可能会逆转。道明证券分析师表示，收益率曲线趋平是“极端的”。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve flattens when shorter-dated rates, which are more sensitive to interest-rate policy, move faster than longer-dated rates, indicating investors believe monetary policy could tighten before the economy has fully recovered from the coronavirus recession.</p><p><blockquote>当对利率政策更敏感的短期利率比长期利率变动更快时，收益率曲线会变平，这表明投资者认为在经济从冠状病毒衰退中完全复苏之前，货币政策可能会收紧。</blockquote></p><p> \"This past week showed crowded investor positioning for a steepening curve can cause the boat to flip over as flattening can occur quickly on any disinflationary developments,\" said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist, John Hancock Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>约翰·汉考克投资管理公司 (John Hancock Investment Management) 联席首席投资策略师马特·米斯金 (Matt Miskin) 表示：“过去一周表明，投资者对曲线陡峭的拥挤定位可能会导致局势倾覆，因为任何通货紧缩的发展都可能很快出现趋平。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index, an options based measure of expectations for stock market gyrations, fell on Monday after touching a 4-week high earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index was at a two-week high, while the MOVE index, a bond market volatility gauge was at a two-month high.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数是衡量股市波动预期的基于期权的指标，在盘中早些时候触及 4 周高点后，周一下跌。与此同时，德意志银行货币波动性指数处于两周高点，而衡量债券市场波动性的 MOVE 指数处于两个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> The parade of Fed speakers began on Monday morning, with two regional officials saying that a faster withdrawal from the central bank's bond purchase program could give it more leeway in deciding when to raise interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储发言人的游行于周一上午开始，两名地区官员表示，更快地退出美联储债券购买计划可能会给美联储更多决定何时加息的余地。</blockquote></p><p> Other speakers this week include Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, who leans hawkish. [FED/DIARY]</p><p><blockquote>本周的其他演讲者包括倾向于鹰派的克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长洛雷塔·梅斯特。[美联储/日记]</blockquote></p><p> Some investors were looking at the week as an opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者将本周视为一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are telling folks if you have a 12-month outlook that we would be looking at this pullback as an opportunity to enter the value trade,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, adding: \"It is a big week.\"</p><p><blockquote>亚特兰大 Truist Advisory Services 首席市场策略师 Keith Lerner 表示：“我们告诉人们，如果你有 12 个月的展望，我们会将这次回调视为进入价值交易的机会。”他补充道：“这是重要的一周。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-investors-focus-central-bank-051623971.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-investors-focus-central-bank-051623971.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160989283","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers to calm market volatility, saying the reaction to the Fed's June meeting was too extreme.\nThe Fed last week signaled a potentially tougher stance on inflation and shifted projections for its first two rate hikes into 2023, sparking a selloff in U.S. stocks, boosting the dollar and flattening the Treasury yield curve in its fastest re-shaping since March 2020, according to Citi analysts.\nHowever, those moves partially reversed on Monday as stocks rebounded and the dollar retreated.\nInvestors are now anticipating what message will come from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, due to speak before Congress on Tuesday at 2 pm ET (1800 GMT), as well as several other key Fed officials making appearances throughout the week. Data is also due on housing and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.\n\"I expect Powell will try to reverse some of the damage last week's Fed meeting did,\" said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. \"I don't think they intended to communicate such a hawkish message.\"\nGraff pointed to the yield curve on Monday \"steepening a little which might show the market is expecting a little reversal.\"\nIn prepared remarks from Powell released by the Fed late Monday afternoon ahead of the his congressional hearing, the Fed chairman said he regards the current jump in inflation, in fact, as likely to fade.\n\"I think that this is just a continuation of what they said last week that things are improving, things are getting better but we're not there yet, and I think that's what this speaks to,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.\nREFLATION TRADE IN DANGER?\nAt stake is the market's view on whether the Fed has grown hawkish enough to endanger the so-called reflation trade, a bet on a powerful U.S. growth revival that has over the last several months helped boost prices for shares of economically sensitive companies, while weighing on the dollar and lifting yields. Some of those trades unwound last week.\n\"We saw big drama playing out in some of the reflation trades,\" said Thanos Bardas, co-head of global investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman.\n\"The market over-reaction was pretty evident,\" he said, adding that he expects cooler heads to prevail this week.\nOthers also saw a reversal of some of those positions likely. Analysts at TD Securities said the yield curve flattening had been \"extreme.\"\nThe yield curve flattens when shorter-dated rates, which are more sensitive to interest-rate policy, move faster than longer-dated rates, indicating investors believe monetary policy could tighten before the economy has fully recovered from the coronavirus recession.\n\"This past week showed crowded investor positioning for a steepening curve can cause the boat to flip over as flattening can occur quickly on any disinflationary developments,\" said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist, John Hancock Investment Management.\nThe Cboe Volatility Index, an options based measure of expectations for stock market gyrations, fell on Monday after touching a 4-week high earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index was at a two-week high, while the MOVE index, a bond market volatility gauge was at a two-month high.\nThe parade of Fed speakers began on Monday morning, with two regional officials saying that a faster withdrawal from the central bank's bond purchase program could give it more leeway in deciding when to raise interest rates.\nOther speakers this week include Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, who leans hawkish. [FED/DIARY]\nSome investors were looking at the week as an opportunity.\n\"We are telling folks if you have a 12-month outlook that we would be looking at this pullback as an opportunity to enter the value trade,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, adding: \"It is a big week.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120063654,"gmtCreate":1624288587478,"gmtModify":1631888657932,"author":{"id":"4087368817620280","authorId":"4087368817620280","name":"zazala","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c32d5c277155d8a5183d3822fdc86cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087368817620280","authorIdStr":"4087368817620280"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Power","listText":"Power","text":"Power","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120063654","repostId":"1154361270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120063807,"gmtCreate":1624288577909,"gmtModify":1634008314688,"author":{"id":"4087368817620280","authorId":"4087368817620280","name":"zazala","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c32d5c277155d8a5183d3822fdc86cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087368817620280","authorIdStr":"4087368817620280"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Powers","listText":"Powers","text":"Powers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120063807","repostId":"1154361270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120069902,"gmtCreate":1624288535906,"gmtModify":1634008315810,"author":{"id":"4087368817620280","authorId":"4087368817620280","name":"zazala","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c32d5c277155d8a5183d3822fdc86cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087368817620280","authorIdStr":"4087368817620280"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good job","listText":"Good job","text":"Good job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120069902","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167646897,"gmtCreate":1624267417119,"gmtModify":1634008671218,"author":{"id":"4087368817620280","authorId":"4087368817620280","name":"zazala","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c32d5c277155d8a5183d3822fdc86cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087368817620280","authorIdStr":"4087368817620280"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Im new here&nbsp;","listText":"Im new here&nbsp;","text":"Im new here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167646897","repostId":"1107200738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107200738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624266640,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107200738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107200738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li>  <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li>  <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li>  <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Twilio 被误解为只受益于 COVID-19 顺风的股票，当重新开放成为焦点时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项重要收购继续增强实力，其中分部交易是最重要的。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能需要Twilio更进一步。</li><li>鉴于其目前的估值和 133% 的高 DBNER，投资者现在应该利用近期价格疲软的机会购买 Twilio。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格勒/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsInvestment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者误解了 Twilio (TWLO) 的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然它可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]：Segment后，该公司正在通过一流的客户参与平台将自己打造成CPaaS领导者。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO处于有利地位，作为全球客户参与需求的平台。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现 TWLO 的估值实际上可能低于 SaaS 领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Twilio 不是典型的 SaaS 股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DBNER. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德布纳。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER&nbsp;“increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 作为 CPaaS 的价值主张不同于典型的 SaaS 公司，后者通过定期订阅获得大部分收入，并通过交叉销售其他产品或通过占用更多席位向客户追加销售来增加或维持其 DBNER 或 DBNRR。TWLO 的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更多收入，而当客户更少使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更少收入。因此，由于 TWLO 是基于使用量的，我们只需观察其 DBNER 趋势，就能轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO 的 DBNER “当此类活跃客户账户增加产品使用量、将产品使用量扩展到新应用或采用新产品时，TWLO 的 DBNER 就会增加。当此类活跃客户账户停止或减少产品使用量，或公司降低产品使用量价格时，TWLO 以美元计算的净增长率就会下降”。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a&nbsp;normalized DBNER in the range of 130s&nbsp;moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们可以从 TWLO 强劲的 DBNER 趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，而这实际上在 COVID-19 来袭之前就已经开始了。TWLO 的 DBNER 也基本保持稳定，该公司也有信心在未来实现 130 度范围内的标准化 DBNER。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a&nbsp;recent article on Teladoc&nbsp;(TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是没有可持续性的新冠肺炎现象的市场。我们曾在 Teladoc (TDOC) 最近的一篇文章中介绍过，为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行病来袭之前就已经开始了，而且仍处于增长阶段，因为预计未来 10 年市场的复合年增长率将超过 20%。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动 TWLO 作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：Atom Finance</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses&nbsp;usage-based pricing: Snowflake&nbsp;(SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.</p><p><blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS领域时，尤其如此。投资者将很难找到许多像 TWLO（中位数：120%）那样拥有 NRR 一直高于 130% 的公司。另一家也使用基于使用的定价的公司：Snowflake (SNOW) 最近一个季度的 NRR 为 168%。投资者可能会认为，如果客户大幅降低使用率，这些采用基于使用量定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此的粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你在上面，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收有内在的强大推动作用，而如果没有基于使用情况的模式，典型的基于订阅的 ARR 模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场真正被低估的细分市场收购</b></blockquote></p><p> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the&nbsp;No.1 CDP worldwide&nbsp;ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了 Segment 对 TWLO 的收购。首先，Segment 是 IDC 排名全球第一的 CDP，因此我们认为 TWLO 在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们意味着多么重要（我们强调）：</blockquote></p><p>   We think the&nbsp;  <b>industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam</b>. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.  Notwithstanding the&nbsp;significant dilution&nbsp;funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为<b>Segment plus Twilio 的工业逻辑只是一个——它不仅仅是一个全垒打。这是个大满贯</b>我认为对我们来说，数据能力与通信能力相结合对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管主要是股权交易提供了大幅稀释资金，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳 CDP 的战略重要性，这对 TWLO 的基础 CPaaS 产品至关重要，因为它现在可以让客户在不同的系统中以统一的视图访问实时分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告商认知；宝藏数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.</p><p><blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中设置CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33% 至 45%）表示各自类别有 “显著改善”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\"><span>Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>营销技术决策者对CDP的好处。数据来源：广告商认知；统一</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们统一多个来源的数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio 还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说 “消费者不再局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合起来，根据他们的工作--随时随地，通过他们喜欢的渠道--提供越来越个性化的内容”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\"><span>Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国营销人员为应对弃用第三方cookies的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周；Phronesis合作伙伴</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use&nbsp;first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is&nbsp;least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓冲这种损失影响的方法，他们中的大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDPs 主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是客户数据最重要的来源，因为它提供了最准确、最可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，TWLO 也承认了这一点当被问及 TWLO 是否由于其第一方数据访问而看到了隐私法规的任何顺风时，该公司回答道：</blockquote></p><p>   100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp</span></p><p><blockquote>100%.我认为你切中要害，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们是非常正确的。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管理者。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。所以我确实认为数据和数据法规对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>与他人合作共享美国第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；活放大器</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的合作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个像CDP这样的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是的，我们知道公司仍然没有盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>EBIT margin, SG&amp;A margin, R&amp;D margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&amp;A and R&amp;D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，应该提醒投资者，尽管该公司随着时间的推移将长期营业利润率定为 28%，但 TWLO 尚未实现营业利润。投资者应该明白，预计 TWLO 也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其高 SG&amp;A 和研发利润率可以看出），因为它看到了大量投资和可能收购的机会，它已经进行了许多备受瞩目的收购，例如 Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip 等。公司强烈强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.  Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.</p><p><blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不能盈利。我的意思是，我们的发展水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们的公司平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吧？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，TWLO 投资者被要求表现出极大的耐心，给 TWLO 时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。普遍估计，该公司 21 财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约 44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过 30%。TWLO 还承诺在未来四年内将收入增长 30% 以上，因此投资者需要给 TWLO 时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求 2 至 3 年期限的短期投资者，或优先考虑盈利而不是增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Revenue metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>收入指标。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\"><span>SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. 数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到 TWLO 的 EV / FY+1 倍数为 20.6 倍，而 SaaS 的中位数为 26.3 倍时，可以合理地认为 TWLO 看起来并不昂贵。值得注意的是，TWLO 预计也将快速增长，但随着时间的推移，我们预计其倍数将大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持稳定，如果 TWLO 继续实施其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域中有更多的公司估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 TWLO 具有普遍强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，过去 3 年仅被 COVID-19 熊市中断过一次。价格最近在 50 瓦移动平均线 300 美元左右找到支撑，此后价格逐渐继续从最近的暴跌中复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们更倾向于在 300 美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平开始或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在 405 美元水平附近上涨，因为我们认为该水平应该存在近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅便宜货的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试 50W 支撑位，其中 320 美元的水平也是可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 是一只非常高增长的股票，它将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。随着 TWLO 将自己定位为多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先参与者，投资者被要求给 TWLO 时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 17:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li>  <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li>  <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li>  <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Twilio 被误解为只受益于 COVID-19 顺风的股票，当重新开放成为焦点时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项重要收购继续增强实力，其中分部交易是最重要的。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能需要Twilio更进一步。</li><li>鉴于其目前的估值和 133% 的高 DBNER，投资者现在应该利用近期价格疲软的机会购买 Twilio。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格勒/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsInvestment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者误解了 Twilio (TWLO) 的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然它可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]：Segment后，该公司正在通过一流的客户参与平台将自己打造成CPaaS领导者。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO处于有利地位，作为全球客户参与需求的平台。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现 TWLO 的估值实际上可能低于 SaaS 领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Twilio 不是典型的 SaaS 股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DBNER. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德布纳。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER&nbsp;“increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 作为 CPaaS 的价值主张不同于典型的 SaaS 公司，后者通过定期订阅获得大部分收入，并通过交叉销售其他产品或通过占用更多席位向客户追加销售来增加或维持其 DBNER 或 DBNRR。TWLO 的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更多收入，而当客户更少使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更少收入。因此，由于 TWLO 是基于使用量的，我们只需观察其 DBNER 趋势，就能轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO 的 DBNER “当此类活跃客户账户增加产品使用量、将产品使用量扩展到新应用或采用新产品时，TWLO 的 DBNER 就会增加。当此类活跃客户账户停止或减少产品使用量，或公司降低产品使用量价格时，TWLO 以美元计算的净增长率就会下降”。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a&nbsp;normalized DBNER in the range of 130s&nbsp;moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们可以从 TWLO 强劲的 DBNER 趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，而这实际上在 COVID-19 来袭之前就已经开始了。TWLO 的 DBNER 也基本保持稳定，该公司也有信心在未来实现 130 度范围内的标准化 DBNER。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a&nbsp;recent article on Teladoc&nbsp;(TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是没有可持续性的新冠肺炎现象的市场。我们曾在 Teladoc (TDOC) 最近的一篇文章中介绍过，为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行病来袭之前就已经开始了，而且仍处于增长阶段，因为预计未来 10 年市场的复合年增长率将超过 20%。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动 TWLO 作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：Atom Finance</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses&nbsp;usage-based pricing: Snowflake&nbsp;(SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.</p><p><blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS领域时，尤其如此。投资者将很难找到许多像 TWLO（中位数：120%）那样拥有 NRR 一直高于 130% 的公司。另一家也使用基于使用的定价的公司：Snowflake (SNOW) 最近一个季度的 NRR 为 168%。投资者可能会认为，如果客户大幅降低使用率，这些采用基于使用量定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此的粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你在上面，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收有内在的强大推动作用，而如果没有基于使用情况的模式，典型的基于订阅的 ARR 模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场真正被低估的细分市场收购</b></blockquote></p><p> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the&nbsp;No.1 CDP worldwide&nbsp;ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了 Segment 对 TWLO 的收购。首先，Segment 是 IDC 排名全球第一的 CDP，因此我们认为 TWLO 在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们意味着多么重要（我们强调）：</blockquote></p><p>   We think the&nbsp;  <b>industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam</b>. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.  Notwithstanding the&nbsp;significant dilution&nbsp;funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为<b>Segment plus Twilio 的工业逻辑只是一个——它不仅仅是一个全垒打。这是个大满贯</b>我认为对我们来说，数据能力与通信能力相结合对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管主要是股权交易提供了大幅稀释资金，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳 CDP 的战略重要性，这对 TWLO 的基础 CPaaS 产品至关重要，因为它现在可以让客户在不同的系统中以统一的视图访问实时分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告商认知；宝藏数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.</p><p><blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中设置CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33% 至 45%）表示各自类别有 “显著改善”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\"><span>Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>营销技术决策者对CDP的好处。数据来源：广告商认知；统一</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们统一多个来源的数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio 还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说 “消费者不再局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合起来，根据他们的工作--随时随地，通过他们喜欢的渠道--提供越来越个性化的内容”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\"><span>Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国营销人员为应对弃用第三方cookies的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周；Phronesis合作伙伴</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use&nbsp;first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is&nbsp;least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓冲这种损失影响的方法，他们中的大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDPs 主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是客户数据最重要的来源，因为它提供了最准确、最可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，TWLO 也承认了这一点当被问及 TWLO 是否由于其第一方数据访问而看到了隐私法规的任何顺风时，该公司回答道：</blockquote></p><p>   100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp</span></p><p><blockquote>100%.我认为你切中要害，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们是非常正确的。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管理者。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。所以我确实认为数据和数据法规对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>与他人合作共享美国第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；活放大器</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的合作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个像CDP这样的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是的，我们知道公司仍然没有盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>EBIT margin, SG&amp;A margin, R&amp;D margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&amp;A and R&amp;D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，应该提醒投资者，尽管该公司随着时间的推移将长期营业利润率定为 28%，但 TWLO 尚未实现营业利润。投资者应该明白，预计 TWLO 也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其高 SG&amp;A 和研发利润率可以看出），因为它看到了大量投资和可能收购的机会，它已经进行了许多备受瞩目的收购，例如 Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip 等。公司强烈强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.  Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.</p><p><blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不能盈利。我的意思是，我们的发展水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们的公司平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吧？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，TWLO 投资者被要求表现出极大的耐心，给 TWLO 时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。普遍估计，该公司 21 财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约 44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过 30%。TWLO 还承诺在未来四年内将收入增长 30% 以上，因此投资者需要给 TWLO 时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求 2 至 3 年期限的短期投资者，或优先考虑盈利而不是增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Revenue metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>收入指标。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\"><span>SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. 数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到 TWLO 的 EV / FY+1 倍数为 20.6 倍，而 SaaS 的中位数为 26.3 倍时，可以合理地认为 TWLO 看起来并不昂贵。值得注意的是，TWLO 预计也将快速增长，但随着时间的推移，我们预计其倍数将大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持稳定，如果 TWLO 继续实施其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域中有更多的公司估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 TWLO 具有普遍强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，过去 3 年仅被 COVID-19 熊市中断过一次。价格最近在 50 瓦移动平均线 300 美元左右找到支撑，此后价格逐渐继续从最近的暴跌中复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们更倾向于在 300 美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平开始或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在 405 美元水平附近上涨，因为我们认为该水平应该存在近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅便宜货的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试 50W 支撑位，其中 320 美元的水平也是可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 是一只非常高增长的股票，它将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。随着 TWLO 将自己定位为多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先参与者，投资者被要求给 TWLO 时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107200738","content_text":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.\nMeanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.\nAs a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.\nAt its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.\n\nDrew Angerer/Getty Images\nNewsInvestment Thesis\nMany investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.\nTwilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock\nDBNER. Data source: Company filings\nTwilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER “increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”\nTherefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a normalized DBNER in the range of 130s moving forward.\nMoreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a recent article on Teladoc (TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.\nSaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance\nThis is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses usage-based pricing: Snowflake (SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.\nMarket Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition\nIn our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the No.1 CDP worldwide ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):\n\n We think the \n industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.\n\nNotwithstanding the significant dilution funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.\nLevel of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data\nWe could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.\nBenefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida\nIn addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”\nMeasures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners\nMoreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:\n\n 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.\n\nShare of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp\nIn order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.\nYes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable\nEBIT margin, SG&A margin, R&D margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&A and R&D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:\n\n But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.\n\nTherefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.\nRevenue metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nValuations\nSaaS EV / 2021 Rev.\nTWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nWe think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.\nAlthough we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.\nWrapping It All Up\nTwilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWLO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}