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2021-06-10

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Why One Bank Thinks ESG Could Trigger Hyperinflation<blockquote>为什么一家银行认为ESG可能引发恶性通货膨胀</blockquote>

In a recent blog post from DB's Francis Yared, the credit strategist looks at one of the lesser disc

Why One Bank Thinks ESG Could Trigger Hyperinflation<blockquote>为什么一家银行认为ESG可能引发恶性通货膨胀</blockquote>

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The downward pressure on oil prices, Yared writes,resulted in a shift to a lower inflation regime, which was reflected in both consumer and market inflation expectations (University of Michigan 5-10y and 5y5y breakevens) as well as monetary policy expectations and the term premium.<blockquote>正如亚雷德所写，“过去半个世纪，油价供应冲击曾三次对通胀预期产生重大影响：70年代中期、80年代中期和10年代中期。”然而，与70年代和80年代臭名昭著的价格爆炸不同，在最新的一集里，“页岩油革命”导致了一场重大的积极的石油市场的供应冲击导致石油输出国组织在2014年捍卫其市场份额而不是油价。亚里德写道，油价面临下行压力，导致向较低通胀制度的转变，这反映在消费者和市场通胀预期（密歇根大学5-10年和5年5年盈亏平衡）以及货币政策预期和期限溢价上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a506eed4b33e73391548c06fb0c26164\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Well not anymore,because ESG is unwinding the shale oil revolution.As recent events at Exxon and Shell have shown, the pressure on oil companies to reduce oil and gas exploration and adapt their business models has increased significantly over the past few months. This is reflected in crude rig counts that have lagged the recovery in oil prices and stand at 1/3rd of the 2014 peak.<blockquote>现在不是了，因为ESG正在解开页岩油革命。正如埃克森和壳牌最近发生的事件所表明的那样，过去几个月，石油公司减少油气勘探并调整商业模式的压力显著增加。这反映在原油钻机数量落后于油价回升，仅为2014年峰值的1/3。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9ca397d4dc8887948badc33be1b0354\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Similarly, carbon emission future prices in Europe have risen considerably: as theWSJ reported recently, the price of carbon credits traded in Europe has jumped 135% over the past 12 months and recently hit a series of records as economic activity rebounded from pandemic lockdowns. Only lumber, driven higher by the housing boom, has proved a better commodities investment.<blockquote>同样，欧洲的碳排放期货价格也大幅上涨：正如《华尔街日报》最近报道的那样，随着经济活动从大流行封锁中反弹，欧洲交易的碳信用额价格在过去12个月内上涨了135%，最近创下了一系列纪录。事实证明，只有受房地产繁荣推动走高的木材是更好的大宗商品投资。</blockquote> As Yared summarizes, \"ESG is a negative supply shock that internalizes the climate cost of the production of goods and services.\"This negative supply shock will be inflationary until technological progress absorbs these costs. That could take years.&nbsp; Moreover in Europe, it could garner enough of political support to justify a more aggressive fiscal policy despite the constraints at the German or EU levels.<blockquote>正如亚雷德总结的那样，“ESG是一种负面的供应冲击，它将商品和服务生产的气候成本内部化。”在技术进步吸收这些成本之前，这种负面的供应冲击将会导致通货膨胀。这可能需要数年时间。此外，在欧洲，尽管受到德国或欧盟层面的限制，但它可以获得足够的政治支持，证明采取更激进的财政政策是合理的。</blockquote> To be sure, the global economy has still to contend with the disinflationary impact of ecommerce. However, as DB concludes, \"ESG, the Fed's Average Inflation Targeting regime and a significantly more pro-active fiscal policy (at least until the US mid-term elections) constitute a new powerful combination that should be supportive of a higher inflation environment than experienced over the last 10 years.\"<blockquote>诚然，全球经济仍需应对电子商务的通货紧缩影响。然而，正如DB总结的那样，“ESG、美联储的平均通胀目标制和明显更加积极的财政政策（至少在美国中期选举之前）构成了一个新的强大组合，应该会支持比过去10年更高的通胀环境.\"</blockquote> Commenting on his colleague's observations, DB credit strategist Jim Reid agrees, and writes that \"maybe in the fullness of time this surge in mining between 2010-2015 will be the exception rather than the norm and that, in a rapidly changing and ever more ESG sensitive world, it will be&nbsp; harder to get oil out of the ground.Pricing climate-change externalities more generally could make things more expensive over time. Are we on the verge of another change in inflation expectations due to oil and energy, one that is in large part due to ESG.\"<blockquote>DB信贷策略师吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)在评论同事的观察时表示同意，并写道：“也许在适当的时候，2010年至2015年间采矿业的激增将是例外，而不是常态，而且在一个快速变化且日益增长的环境中。ESG敏感的世界，从地下开采石油将更加困难。随着时间的推移，更普遍地为气候变化外部性定价可能会使事情变得更加昂贵。我们是否正处于石油和能源导致通胀预期再次发生变化的边缘，而这种变化很大程度上是由于ESG造成的.\"</blockquote> So in case there was still any confusion why the establishment has adopted ESG as gospel - and as a reminder, ESG is nothing new, and many years ago used to be called Corporate Social Responsibility, or CSR and even Nobel economist Milton Friedman warned against its subversive nature 50 years ago when he said that taking on externally dictated “social responsibilities” beyond those directly related to a company’s business opened the floodgates to endless pressure and interferenc - at a time when the same establishment is also desperate to inflate away thenearly $300 trillion in global debt, now you know: ESG looks like the catalyst that will unleash runaway inflation. And if central banks fail to contain it in time, the entire developed world may soon descend into hyperinflation.<blockquote>因此，如果人们仍然对为什么当权派将ESG作为福音感到困惑——提醒一下，ESG并不是什么新鲜事，许多年前它曾被称为企业社会责任，或CSR，甚至诺贝尔经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）也警告不要这样做。50年前，他表示，承担与公司业务直接相关的外部规定的“社会责任”打开了无尽压力和干预的闸门——而此时，同一当权派也不顾一切地消除最初300万亿美元的全球债务，现在你知道了：ESG看起来像是释放失控通货膨胀的催化剂。而如果各国央行未能及时遏制，整个发达国家可能很快就会陷入恶性通货膨胀。</blockquote> Which in turn should also answer the other pressing question: why are central banks so desperate to issue their own digital, programmable currencies? Well, the ability to turn money on and off with the literal flip of a switch will come in extremely useful in a world where authorities have lost control over all other monetary pathways...<blockquote>这反过来也应该回答另一个紧迫的问题：为什么央行如此不顾一切地发行自己的数字、可编程货币？嗯，在一个当局已经失去了对所有其他货币渠道的控制的世界里，只需按一下开关就能打开和关闭货币的能力将会非常有用...</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why One Bank Thinks ESG Could Trigger Hyperinflation<blockquote>为什么一家银行认为ESG可能引发恶性通货膨胀</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy One Bank Thinks ESG Could Trigger Hyperinflation<blockquote>为什么一家银行认为ESG可能引发恶性通货膨胀</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-06-10 15:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIn a recent blog post from DB's Francis Yared, the credit strategist looks at one of the lesser discussed drivers of inflation and points out that supply shocks to oil prices have historically been relevant for inflation expectations.<blockquote>在DB的Francis Yared最近的一篇博客文章中，这位信贷策略师着眼于讨论较少的通胀驱动因素之一，并指出油价的供应冲击历来与通胀预期相关。</blockquote> As Yared writes, \"supply shock to oil prices have had a significant impact on inflation expectations on three occasions over the past half century: in the mid 70s, the mid 80s and the mid 10s.\" However, unlike the infamous price explosions of the 70s and 80s, in the latest episode the \"shale oil revolution\" resulted in a significantpositivesupply shock to oil markets which led OPEC in 2014 to defend its market share rather than oil prices. The downward pressure on oil prices, Yared writes,resulted in a shift to a lower inflation regime, which was reflected in both consumer and market inflation expectations (University of Michigan 5-10y and 5y5y breakevens) as well as monetary policy expectations and the term premium.<blockquote>正如亚雷德所写，“过去半个世纪，油价供应冲击曾三次对通胀预期产生重大影响：70年代中期、80年代中期和10年代中期。”然而，与70年代和80年代臭名昭著的价格爆炸不同，在最新的一集里，“页岩油革命”导致了一场重大的积极的石油市场的供应冲击导致石油输出国组织在2014年捍卫其市场份额而不是油价。亚里德写道，油价面临下行压力，导致向较低通胀制度的转变，这反映在消费者和市场通胀预期（密歇根大学5-10年和5年5年盈亏平衡）以及货币政策预期和期限溢价上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a506eed4b33e73391548c06fb0c26164\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Well not anymore,because ESG is unwinding the shale oil revolution.As recent events at Exxon and Shell have shown, the pressure on oil companies to reduce oil and gas exploration and adapt their business models has increased significantly over the past few months. This is reflected in crude rig counts that have lagged the recovery in oil prices and stand at 1/3rd of the 2014 peak.<blockquote>现在不是了，因为ESG正在解开页岩油革命。正如埃克森和壳牌最近发生的事件所表明的那样，过去几个月，石油公司减少油气勘探并调整商业模式的压力显著增加。这反映在原油钻机数量落后于油价回升，仅为2014年峰值的1/3。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9ca397d4dc8887948badc33be1b0354\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Similarly, carbon emission future prices in Europe have risen considerably: as theWSJ reported recently, the price of carbon credits traded in Europe has jumped 135% over the past 12 months and recently hit a series of records as economic activity rebounded from pandemic lockdowns. Only lumber, driven higher by the housing boom, has proved a better commodities investment.<blockquote>同样，欧洲的碳排放期货价格也大幅上涨：正如《华尔街日报》最近报道的那样，随着经济活动从大流行封锁中反弹，欧洲交易的碳信用额价格在过去12个月内上涨了135%，最近创下了一系列纪录。事实证明，只有受房地产繁荣推动走高的木材是更好的大宗商品投资。</blockquote> As Yared summarizes, \"ESG is a negative supply shock that internalizes the climate cost of the production of goods and services.\"This negative supply shock will be inflationary until technological progress absorbs these costs. That could take years.&nbsp; Moreover in Europe, it could garner enough of political support to justify a more aggressive fiscal policy despite the constraints at the German or EU levels.<blockquote>正如亚雷德总结的那样，“ESG是一种负面的供应冲击，它将商品和服务生产的气候成本内部化。”在技术进步吸收这些成本之前，这种负面的供应冲击将会导致通货膨胀。这可能需要数年时间。此外，在欧洲，尽管受到德国或欧盟层面的限制，但它可以获得足够的政治支持，证明采取更激进的财政政策是合理的。</blockquote> To be sure, the global economy has still to contend with the disinflationary impact of ecommerce. However, as DB concludes, \"ESG, the Fed's Average Inflation Targeting regime and a significantly more pro-active fiscal policy (at least until the US mid-term elections) constitute a new powerful combination that should be supportive of a higher inflation environment than experienced over the last 10 years.\"<blockquote>诚然，全球经济仍需应对电子商务的通货紧缩影响。然而，正如DB总结的那样，“ESG、美联储的平均通胀目标制和明显更加积极的财政政策（至少在美国中期选举之前）构成了一个新的强大组合，应该会支持比过去10年更高的通胀环境.\"</blockquote> Commenting on his colleague's observations, DB credit strategist Jim Reid agrees, and writes that \"maybe in the fullness of time this surge in mining between 2010-2015 will be the exception rather than the norm and that, in a rapidly changing and ever more ESG sensitive world, it will be&nbsp; harder to get oil out of the ground.Pricing climate-change externalities more generally could make things more expensive over time. Are we on the verge of another change in inflation expectations due to oil and energy, one that is in large part due to ESG.\"<blockquote>DB信贷策略师吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)在评论同事的观察时表示同意，并写道：“也许在适当的时候，2010年至2015年间采矿业的激增将是例外，而不是常态，而且在一个快速变化且日益增长的环境中。ESG敏感的世界，从地下开采石油将更加困难。随着时间的推移，更普遍地为气候变化外部性定价可能会使事情变得更加昂贵。我们是否正处于石油和能源导致通胀预期再次发生变化的边缘，而这种变化很大程度上是由于ESG造成的.\"</blockquote> So in case there was still any confusion why the establishment has adopted ESG as gospel - and as a reminder, ESG is nothing new, and many years ago used to be called Corporate Social Responsibility, or CSR and even Nobel economist Milton Friedman warned against its subversive nature 50 years ago when he said that taking on externally dictated “social responsibilities” beyond those directly related to a company’s business opened the floodgates to endless pressure and interferenc - at a time when the same establishment is also desperate to inflate away thenearly $300 trillion in global debt, now you know: ESG looks like the catalyst that will unleash runaway inflation. And if central banks fail to contain it in time, the entire developed world may soon descend into hyperinflation.<blockquote>因此，如果人们仍然对为什么当权派将ESG作为福音感到困惑——提醒一下，ESG并不是什么新鲜事，许多年前它曾被称为企业社会责任，或CSR，甚至诺贝尔经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）也警告不要这样做。50年前，他表示，承担与公司业务直接相关的外部规定的“社会责任”打开了无尽压力和干预的闸门——而此时，同一当权派也不顾一切地消除最初300万亿美元的全球债务，现在你知道了：ESG看起来像是释放失控通货膨胀的催化剂。而如果各国央行未能及时遏制，整个发达国家可能很快就会陷入恶性通货膨胀。</blockquote> Which in turn should also answer the other pressing question: why are central banks so desperate to issue their own digital, programmable currencies? Well, the ability to turn money on and off with the literal flip of a switch will come in extremely useful in a world where authorities have lost control over all other monetary pathways...<blockquote>这反过来也应该回答另一个紧迫的问题：为什么央行如此不顾一切地发行自己的数字、可编程货币？嗯，在一个当局已经失去了对所有其他货币渠道的控制的世界里，只需按一下开关就能打开和关闭货币的能力将会非常有用...</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-one-bank-thinks-esg-could-trigger-hyperinflation\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-one-bank-thinks-esg-could-trigger-hyperinflation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145405384","content_text":"In a recent blog post from DB's Francis Yared, the credit strategist looks at one of the lesser discussed drivers of inflation and points out that supply shocks to oil prices have historically been relevant for inflation expectations.\nAs Yared writes, \"supply shock to oil prices have had a significant impact on inflation expectations on three occasions over the past half century: in the mid 70s, the mid 80s and the mid 10s.\" However, unlike the infamous price explosions of the 70s and 80s, in the latest episode the \"shale oil revolution\" resulted in a significantpositivesupply shock to oil markets which led OPEC in 2014 to defend its market share rather than oil prices. The downward pressure on oil prices, Yared writes,resulted in a shift to a lower inflation regime, which was reflected in both consumer and market inflation expectations (University of Michigan 5-10y and 5y5y breakevens) as well as monetary policy expectations and the term premium.\n\nWell not anymore,because ESG is unwinding the shale oil revolution.As recent events at Exxon and Shell have shown, the pressure on oil companies to reduce oil and gas exploration and adapt their business models has increased significantly over the past few months. This is reflected in crude rig counts that have lagged the recovery in oil prices and stand at 1/3rd of the 2014 peak.\n\nSimilarly, carbon emission future prices in Europe have risen considerably: as theWSJ reported recently, the price of carbon credits traded in Europe has jumped 135% over the past 12 months and recently hit a series of records as economic activity rebounded from pandemic lockdowns. Only lumber, driven higher by the housing boom, has proved a better commodities investment.\nAs Yared summarizes, \"ESG is a negative supply shock that internalizes the climate cost of the production of goods and services.\"This negative supply shock will be inflationary until technological progress absorbs these costs. That could take years.  Moreover in Europe, it could garner enough of political support to justify a more aggressive fiscal policy despite the constraints at the German or EU levels.\nTo be sure, the global economy has still to contend with the disinflationary impact of ecommerce. However, as DB concludes, \"ESG, the Fed's Average Inflation Targeting regime and a significantly more pro-active fiscal policy (at least until the US mid-term elections) constitute a new powerful combination that should be supportive of a higher inflation environment than experienced over the last 10 years.\"\nCommenting on his colleague's observations, DB credit strategist Jim Reid agrees, and writes that \"maybe in the fullness of time this surge in mining between 2010-2015 will be the exception rather than the norm and that, in a rapidly changing and ever more ESG sensitive world, it will be  harder to get oil out of the ground.Pricing climate-change externalities more generally could make things more expensive over time. Are we on the verge of another change in inflation expectations due to oil and energy, one that is in large part due to ESG.\"\nSo in case there was still any confusion why the establishment has adopted ESG as gospel - and as a reminder, ESG is nothing new, and many years ago used to be called Corporate Social Responsibility, or CSR and even Nobel economist Milton Friedman warned against its subversive nature 50 years ago when he said that taking on externally dictated “social responsibilities” beyond those directly related to a company’s business opened the floodgates to endless pressure and interferenc - at a time when the same establishment is also desperate to inflate away thenearly $300 trillion in global debt, now you know: ESG looks like the catalyst that will unleash runaway inflation. And if central banks fail to contain it in time, the entire developed world may soon descend into hyperinflation.\nWhich in turn should also answer the other pressing question: why are central banks so desperate to issue their own digital, programmable currencies? Well, the ability to turn money on and off with the literal flip of a switch will come in extremely useful in a world where authorities have lost control over all other monetary pathways...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}