唱衰美股的人不是傻就_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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云中杨过
2023-08-11

唱衰美股的人不是傻就是坏，有本事买A股

市场快见顶了？这个巴菲特最爱的指标显示美股“被严重高估”

迈入牛市的美股离大幅调整不远了？

市场快见顶了？这个巴菲特最爱的指标显示美股“被严重高估”

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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老夫追涨杀跌
·2023-08-12
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唱衰美股其实也没什么错，毕竟要转移矛盾
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- 云中杨过:
  讨厌你的网名，和我死党一样骚气
  2023-08-13
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小东王子
·2023-08-12
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A股的股民看见你这个言论很受伤
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- 云中杨过:
  唱衰美股，唱多A股的人真的让我损失了一些钱。看到了就来气！
  2023-08-13
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权力的游戏厅
·2023-08-12
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其实短线的美股并没有什么大机会
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- 云中杨过:
  不敢说，升息后期暴涨的历史重复了很多次，所以上半年涨了，现在很多投资人都紧盯市场，既怕市场跌，更怕市场涨自己没上车
  2023-08-13
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哎呀呀小伙子
·2023-08-12
做多不可以的话，做空应该是有机会的
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梅川洼子
·2023-08-12
A股虐我千百遍，我待A股如初恋
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弹力绳22
·2023-08-12
没有体会过美股的人不懂你说的是什么
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tg-height=\"873\"/></p><p>去年，这一指数曾证明其价值，该指数从去年1月份的210%暴跌至9月份的150%，与此同时，标普500指数跌近30%。</p><p>今年以来，标普500在市场的乐观情绪中涨超16%，7月开始的美股财报季也证实了大公司的盈利能力，并正摆脱通胀困扰。分析师纷纷上调对公司的盈利预期，支撑股价上涨。</p><p>同时，AI风暴席卷，大型科技股大幅反弹，纳斯达克年内涨幅达到了惊人的30%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcaf1d6771632a78c153286caa9773c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"472\"/></p><p>美股大幅上涨也让“巴菲特指数”重回大众视野，华尔街大型投行们都不约而同的发出了估值过高的警告，这或许正开始给美股带来压力。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席策略师Marko Kolanovic在最新的一份报告中写道，因欧美央行不太可能在近期转向，市盈率看起来过高。建议投资者减持股票：</p><blockquote>美股当前估值表明，投资者预计经济会继续扩张、或“不着陆”，同时货币政策会放宽。 但今年或明年经济衰退的可能性为65%，软着陆的可能性为35%，建议持低配股票和信用债，超配现金和大宗商品。</blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>也发出警告，AI概念股的泡沫正在接近顶峰，其策略师指出，作为风向标的AI标杆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>今年初以来累计涨超200%。基于历史纪录预计，这轮股市上涨将走到末期：</p><blockquote>因为过往纪录显示，在高峰到来前的三年内，美股的泡沫通常有154%的中位值涨幅。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-10 18:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3695227><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>巴菲特最爱的估值指标正拉响警报，迈入牛市的美股离大幅调整不远了？2001年巴菲特在《财富》杂志上发表的《巴菲特论股市》一文中表示：所有公开交易的股票的市值占美国GNP的比例，这个比例虽然有一定的局限性，但是在任何时候衡量股市估值水平方面可能是最佳的单一指标。也因巴菲特的原因，该指标被称为巴菲特指标。简单来说，“巴菲特指标”计算方式为：美股总市值 / 美国国家GDP。8月8日，根据GuruFocus...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3695227\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f760ec61ce8878ede99076ef387b4867","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3695227","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2358374647","content_text":"巴菲特最爱的估值指标正拉响警报，迈入牛市的美股离大幅调整不远了？2001年巴菲特在《财富》杂志上发表的《巴菲特论股市》一文中表示：所有公开交易的股票的市值占美国GNP的比例，这个比例虽然有一定的局限性，但是在任何时候衡量股市估值水平方面可能是最佳的单一指标。也因巴菲特的原因，该指标被称为巴菲特指标。简单来说，“巴菲特指标”计算方式为：美股总市值 / 美国国家GDP。8月8日，根据GuruFocus的数据显示，美股总市值（威尔希尔5000指数）为45万亿美元，较2022年9月的低点大幅上升22%。今年以来，标普500指数上涨19%，纳斯达克指数飙升37%，推动了该指数的上涨。同时，美国经济分析局对美国第二季度GDP的预估为26.84万亿美元，这意味着“巴菲特指数”达到惊人的170%。巴菲特曾指出，巴菲特指标为100%时，表明美股估值合理，在70%或80%的水平上买入可能会很好，114％至134％的区间为略微高估，超过134％即为严重高估，在200%左右购买美股等同于“玩火自焚”。很明显，从巴菲特指标来看，目前美股已被“严重高估”。去年，这一指数曾证明其价值，该指数从去年1月份的210%暴跌至9月份的150%，与此同时，标普500指数跌近30%。今年以来，标普500在市场的乐观情绪中涨超16%，7月开始的美股财报季也证实了大公司的盈利能力，并正摆脱通胀困扰。分析师纷纷上调对公司的盈利预期，支撑股价上涨。同时，AI风暴席卷，大型科技股大幅反弹，纳斯达克年内涨幅达到了惊人的30%。美股大幅上涨也让“巴菲特指数”重回大众视野，华尔街大型投行们都不约而同的发出了估值过高的警告，这或许正开始给美股带来压力。摩根大通首席策略师Marko Kolanovic在最新的一份报告中写道，因欧美央行不太可能在近期转向，市盈率看起来过高。建议投资者减持股票：美股当前估值表明，投资者预计经济会继续扩张、或“不着陆”，同时货币政策会放宽。 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