$特斯拉(TSLA)_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

邓文鄧文邓闻
2023-10-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 不知道这波是否对美联储的意识判断失误，在水位处于供需平衡的零界点，美联储要么抑制市场的隐含波动率、要么释放IV，释放IV有两个点：1是有大事发生，如前面的国债流动性危机银行事件等，2对冲中等事件，如这波的关门、霸工，我判断美联储抑制IV的概率要大于释放IV，其二是去年都在释放ＩＶ，今年情况这么好，没理由再释放，但这波会议后，数据+官员的讲话，冲击了我的认为，今晚数据差于预期、如果官员讲话反过来偏鸽，那么冲击率加大、如果还是偏鹰的路径那么没有冲击波，后者也决定了VIX的走势，VIX下跌和下跌的速率决定了其与股市的相关性的大小；以上，应该可以决定市场箱体运动的幅度大小，其也跟IV正相关，

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