$老铺黄金(0618_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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Leader
01-02

$老铺黄金(06181)$

$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$

$美光科技(MU)$

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

老铺黄金估值合理么？

真金不怕火炼，泡沫惧怕阳光

首先我们看市场定位：走在黄金的时代红利，附带文化根脉，历史典故，古法工艺设计，打出差异化竞争，做出结构性竞争，品牌打造，吸引高净值顾客，做出资产加情绪的市场，未来市场空间成长大！

产品一口价模式意味着：滞后黄金上涨，价格优势，25年2月，8月，10月调价3次，综合超25%，比黄金累积涨幅略低，股价涨的比黄金慢了，可能存在潜在估值（11月增值税政策大约提高5%成本）

渠道端选址：北京，上海，深圳，南京，西安SKP，香港，新加坡）

服务会员模式5%折扣，年销售额由96%忠诚顾客提供

奢侈品重叠高端顾客达72%（粘度高，复购率高）

客单价达6万，单店年营收4.6亿，传承金模式

提价抵消扩店基数，21～25稳定毛利率40%左右

估值比率：

* P/E TTM 29.81：高于历史平均水平，但根据增长，可能合理。

* 预测EPS 28.48元，当前股价对应远期PE，计算：622 / 28.48 ≈ 21.84

* ROE 59.72%

乐观35倍PE（1000），悲观25倍PE（710）

保守预期：PE25/26×EPS28.5=730

风险：金价下跌，资金板块轮动，现金流，负债率，库存，需要谨慎！

老铺黄金累积买了3个月，从606-650，长期价投，享受股价的波动，回归合理均值，综上中长期看好老铺黄金市场，第一目标价730！

投资有风险，不具备投资建议！

微信公众号：HopeLee OnePiece

分享个人美港股，场外基金投资经历！

欢迎关注，感谢老虎提供平台！

修改于 2026-01-02 21:00

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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EarlBoyle
·01-02
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老铺黄金潜力大，730目标价靠谱！
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  嗯哼
  01-04
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Leader
·01-03
若问归期未有期，巴山夜雨涨秋池
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06181\">$老铺黄金(06181)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLD\">$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;\n<p><br></p>\n<p>老铺黄金估值合理么？</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>真金不怕火炼，泡沫惧怕阳光</p>\n<p>首先我们看市场定位：走在黄金的时代红利，附带文化根脉，历史典故，古法工艺设计，打出差异化竞争，做出结构性竞争，品牌打造，吸引高净值顾客，做出资产加情绪的市场，未来市场空间成长大！</p>\n<p>产品一口价模式意味着：滞后黄金上涨，价格优势，25年2月，8月，10月调价3次，综合超25%，比黄金累积涨幅略低，股价涨的比黄金慢了，可能存在潜在估值（11月增值税政策大约提高5%成本）</p>\n<p>渠道端选址：北京，上海，深圳，南京，西安SKP，香港，新加坡）</p>\n<p>服务会员模式5%折扣，年销售额由96%忠诚顾客提供</p>\n<p>奢侈品重叠高端顾客达72%（粘度高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993422044192890880&amp;word=复购率\">复购率</a>高）</p>\n<p>客单价达6万，单店年营收4.6亿，传承金模式</p>\n<p>提价抵消扩店基数，21～25稳定<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1991472437275369472&amp;word=毛利率\">毛利率</a>40%左右</p>\n<p>估值比率：</p>\n<p>* <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993361210338598912&amp;word=P/E\">P/E</a> TTM 29.81：高于历史平均水平，但根据增长，可能合理。</p>\n<p>* 预测EPS 28.48元，当前股价对应远期PE，计算：622 / 28.48 ≈ 21.84</p>\n<p>* <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993381224702074880&amp;word=ROE\">ROE</a> 59.72%</p>\n<p>乐观35倍PE（1000），悲观25倍PE（710）</p>\n<p>保守预期：PE25/26×EPS28.5=730</p>\n<p>风险：金价下跌，资金<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993572172761456640&amp;word=板块轮动\">板块轮动</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993471461087928320&amp;word=现金流\">现金流</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993288144594460672&amp;word=负债率\">负债率</a>，库存，需要谨慎！</p>\n<p>老铺黄金累积买了3个月，从606-650，长期价投，享受股价的波动，回归合理均值，综上中长期看好老铺黄金市场，第一目标价730！</p>\n<p>投资有风险，不具备投资建议！</p>\n<p>微信公众号：HopeLee OnePiece</p>\n<p>分享个人美港股，场外基金投资经历！</p>\n<p>欢迎关注，感谢老虎提供平台！</p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582db722eaf0763726f478c060de974c\" tg-width=\"4032\" tg-height=\"3024\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511edba84afdebdbb3563d116743ef65\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f106e574f22b801d365d84265a052193\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\"></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06181\">$老铺黄金(06181)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLD\">$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;\n<p><br></p>\n<p>老铺黄金估值合理么？</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>真金不怕火炼，泡沫惧怕阳光</p>\n<p>首先我们看市场定位：走在黄金的时代红利，附带文化根脉，历史典故，古法工艺设计，打出差异化竞争，做出结构性竞争，品牌打造，吸引高净值顾客，做出资产加情绪的市场，未来市场空间成长大！</p>\n<p>产品一口价模式意味着：滞后黄金上涨，价格优势，25年2月，8月，10月调价3次，综合超25%，比黄金累积涨幅略低，股价涨的比黄金慢了，可能存在潜在估值（11月增值税政策大约提高5%成本）</p>\n<p>渠道端选址：北京，上海，深圳，南京，西安SKP，香港，新加坡）</p>\n<p>服务会员模式5%折扣，年销售额由96%忠诚顾客提供</p>\n<p>奢侈品重叠高端顾客达72%（粘度高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993422044192890880&amp;word=复购率\">复购率</a>高）</p>\n<p>客单价达6万，单店年营收4.6亿，传承金模式</p>\n<p>提价抵消扩店基数，21～25稳定<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1991472437275369472&amp;word=毛利率\">毛利率</a>40%左右</p>\n<p>估值比率：</p>\n<p>* <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993361210338598912&amp;word=P/E\">P/E</a> TTM 29.81：高于历史平均水平，但根据增长，可能合理。</p>\n<p>* 预测EPS 28.48元，当前股价对应远期PE，计算：622 / 28.48 ≈ 21.84</p>\n<p>* <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993381224702074880&amp;word=ROE\">ROE</a> 59.72%</p>\n<p>乐观35倍PE（1000），悲观25倍PE（710）</p>\n<p>保守预期：PE25/26×EPS28.5=730</p>\n<p>风险：金价下跌，资金<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993572172761456640&amp;word=板块轮动\">板块轮动</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993471461087928320&amp;word=现金流\">现金流</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993288144594460672&amp;word=负债率\">负债率</a>，库存，需要谨慎！</p>\n<p>老铺黄金累积买了3个月，从606-650，长期价投，享受股价的波动，回归合理均值，综上中长期看好老铺黄金市场，第一目标价730！</p>\n<p>投资有风险，不具备投资建议！</p>\n<p>微信公众号：HopeLee OnePiece</p>\n<p>分享个人美港股，场外基金投资经历！</p>\n<p>欢迎关注，感谢老虎提供平台！</p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582db722eaf0763726f478c060de974c\" tg-width=\"4032\" tg-height=\"3024\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511edba84afdebdbb3563d116743ef65\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f106e574f22b801d365d84265a052193\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\"></body></html>","text":"$老铺黄金(06181)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $美光科技(MU)$ $博通(AVGO)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 老铺黄金估值合理么？ 真金不怕火炼，泡沫惧怕阳光 首先我们看市场定位：走在黄金的时代红利，附带文化根脉，历史典故，古法工艺设计，打出差异化竞争，做出结构性竞争，品牌打造，吸引高净值顾客，做出资产加情绪的市场，未来市场空间成长大！ 产品一口价模式意味着：滞后黄金上涨，价格优势，25年2月，8月，10月调价3次，综合超25%，比黄金累积涨幅略低，股价涨的比黄金慢了，可能存在潜在估值（11月增值税政策大约提高5%成本） 渠道端选址：北京，上海，深圳，南京，西安SKP，香港，新加坡） 服务会员模式5%折扣，年销售额由96%忠诚顾客提供 奢侈品重叠高端顾客达72%（粘度高，复购率高） 客单价达6万，单店年营收4.6亿，传承金模式 提价抵消扩店基数，21～25稳定毛利率40%左右 估值比率： * P/E TTM 29.81：高于历史平均水平，但根据增长，可能合理。 * 预测EPS 28.48元，当前股价对应远期PE，计算：622 / 28.48 ≈ 21.84 * ROE 59.72% 乐观35倍PE（1000），悲观25倍PE（710） 保守预期：PE25/26×EPS28.5=730 风险：金价下跌，资金板块轮动，现金流，负债率，库存，需要谨慎！ 老铺黄金累积买了3个月，从606-650，长期价投，享受股价的波动，回归合理均值，综上中长期看好老铺黄金市场，第一目标价730！ 投资有风险，不具备投资建议！ 微信公众号：HopeLee OnePiece 分享个人美港股，场外基金投资经历！ 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