一点都不给Intel_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Heinz
01-13 17:53

一点都不给Intel Foundary计价啊[笑哭] 全球第一个量产1.8nm视而不见。作为机构就这水平，很难说不是有别的意图。$英特尔(INTC)$

花旗：卖出英特尔与AMD！

花旗维持对AMD的“中性”评级，对英特尔维持“卖出”评级。02 |公司影响：对AMD与英特尔构成短暂喘息第四季度出货数据优于预期，为AMD和英特尔即将发布的季度财报带来了温和的短期积极影响。花旗指出，AMD约30%的营收来自PC端市场，而英特尔则有约90%的营收依赖于PC与服务器市场。花旗给出的AMD目标价为260美元，基于约32倍2027年预期市盈率；英特尔目标价为29美元，约为其2026年预估账面价值的1倍，反映出对其较低盈利能力的担忧。

花旗：卖出英特尔与AMD！

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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Heinz
·01-13 19:13
foundry[贱笑]
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天空使者
·01-13 18:00
花旗没上车，后悔了

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>（营收占比36%）等依赖笔记本业务的公司构成短期温和利好。然而，分析师预计2026年第一季度笔记本出货将环比下降15%，显著弱于正常的季节性下滑9%，主要受内存供应限制影响。花旗维持对AMD的“中性”评级，对英特尔维持“卖出”评级。01 |数据解读：Q4优于预期，但Q1前景疲软2025年12月，全球笔记本（主要通过中国台湾ODM数据观测）出货量环比增长14%，超出花旗预期。这使得2025年第四季度整体笔记本出货量环比下降5%，优于花旗此前下滑11%的预测，也高于历史同期平均7%的降幅。然而，展望2026年第一季度，花旗笔记本分析师Carrie Liu预计，由于内存供应限制，出货量将环比下降15%，显著低于正常季节性环比下降9%的规律。这预示着个人电脑市场在年初将面临短期压力。02 |公司影响：对AMD与英特尔构成短暂喘息<img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260113160329700v206nu2w6elrsh7\"/>第四季度出货数据优于预期，为AMD和英特尔即将发布的季度财报带来了温和的短期积极影响。花旗指出，AMD约30%的营收来自PC端市场，而英特尔则有约90%的营收依赖于PC与服务器市场。尽管有短期利好，但花旗对两家公司的长期看法并未改变，维持了对AMD的“中性”评级，以及对英特尔的“卖出”评级。花旗给出的AMD目标价为260美元，基于约32倍2027年预期市盈率；英特尔目标价为29美元，约为其2026年预估账面价值的1倍，反映出对其较低盈利能力的担忧。03 |风险透视：关键风险点解析报告详细列举了AMD与英特尔面临的主要风险：“对于AMD”1. 竞争风险：在微处理器市场直接与英特尔竞争，在GPU和AI加速器市场则直面<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>，市场份额的任何波动都可能影响业绩。2. 终端市场风险：约30%营收来自PC产业，高度依赖企业IT支出。3. 客户集中风险：约15%营收来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">索尼</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>，来自这两家大客户的订单波动将直接影响业绩预期。4. 估值风险：当前估值略高于历史区间，市场共识收入预测的修正可能导致股价高波动。“对于英特尔”1. 终端市场风险：约90%营收来自PC与服务器，对IT支出周期极为敏感。2. 竞争风险：在核心CPU市场持续面临AMD的激烈竞争。3. 客户集中风险：前几大PC OEM客户合计贡献约45%营收，大客户订单下滑将带来显著负面影响。4. 宏观经济风险：业务遍布全球， prolonged 的宏观经济下行或上行会影响其业绩与评级。04 |总结【核心观点】Q4笔记本供应链数据因内存价格预期引发的战略性备货而短暂走强，为依赖该市场的半导体公司（尤其是INTC）提供了季度业绩的缓冲垫。但这并非需求侧的真实改善信号。【关键推断】Q1指引的大幅下滑（-15% QoQ vs. 季节性-9%）验证了终端需求的疲软和渠道库存回补的不可持续性。内存供应限制是表象，核心仍是终端消费与企业IT支出的放缓。【操作启示】该数据不足以扭转对PC半导体板块的结构性看跌观点。AMD因在AI/数据中心领域的增长叙事而获得估值支撑，维持中性；INTC因其对PC/服务器市场的极高敞口、竞争劣势及盈利能见度低，下行风险更甚，维持看跌。交易应回避对传统PC周期敏感的标的，关注库存去化进度与AI相关资本开支的持续性。...完整内容在星球了...<img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260113160337249v206ebgac0toc6j\"/>...深度星球订阅链接：https://t.zsxq.com/NR0qH本文所涉及一切内容仅供分享参考，接收人不因阅读本文而被视为我方客户，也不构成向任何人发出出售或购买证券或其他投资标的的邀请，更不构成交易依据。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，本文所有信息及观点均不构成任何投资建议；过往业绩不代表未来表现，投资者应依据自身风险承受能力进行审慎评估、独立决策并自行承担全部责任。任何情况下，我方均不对因使用本文内容而产生的任何损失承担责任。相关数据可能存在滞后或误差，我方不对信息的完整性及准确性承担法律责任。</article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>花旗：卖出英特尔与AMD！</title>\n<style 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\"A\" (USD) INC","LU0130517989.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"R\" INC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260113160413a714d59a&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2603098165","content_text":"花旗研究发布最新半导体行业报告指出，2025年12月笔记本出货环比增长14%，推动第四季度整体出货仅环比下降5%，优于此前下滑11%的预期，主要受内存价格上涨推动的战略性库存回补影响。这对AMD（营收占比15%）与英特尔（营收占比36%）等依赖笔记本业务的公司构成短期温和利好。然而，分析师预计2026年第一季度笔记本出货将环比下降15%，显著弱于正常的季节性下滑9%，主要受内存供应限制影响。花旗维持对AMD的“中性”评级，对英特尔维持“卖出”评级。01 |数据解读：Q4优于预期，但Q1前景疲软2025年12月，全球笔记本（主要通过中国台湾ODM数据观测）出货量环比增长14%，超出花旗预期。这使得2025年第四季度整体笔记本出货量环比下降5%，优于花旗此前下滑11%的预测，也高于历史同期平均7%的降幅。然而，展望2026年第一季度，花旗笔记本分析师Carrie Liu预计，由于内存供应限制，出货量将环比下降15%，显著低于正常季节性环比下降9%的规律。这预示着个人电脑市场在年初将面临短期压力。02 |公司影响：对AMD与英特尔构成短暂喘息第四季度出货数据优于预期，为AMD和英特尔即将发布的季度财报带来了温和的短期积极影响。花旗指出，AMD约30%的营收来自PC端市场，而英特尔则有约90%的营收依赖于PC与服务器市场。尽管有短期利好，但花旗对两家公司的长期看法并未改变，维持了对AMD的“中性”评级，以及对英特尔的“卖出”评级。花旗给出的AMD目标价为260美元，基于约32倍2027年预期市盈率；英特尔目标价为29美元，约为其2026年预估账面价值的1倍，反映出对其较低盈利能力的担忧。03 |风险透视：关键风险点解析报告详细列举了AMD与英特尔面临的主要风险：“对于AMD”1. 竞争风险：在微处理器市场直接与英特尔竞争，在GPU和AI加速器市场则直面英伟达，市场份额的任何波动都可能影响业绩。2. 终端市场风险：约30%营收来自PC产业，高度依赖企业IT支出。3. 客户集中风险：约15%营收来自索尼和微软，来自这两家大客户的订单波动将直接影响业绩预期。4. 估值风险：当前估值略高于历史区间，市场共识收入预测的修正可能导致股价高波动。“对于英特尔”1. 终端市场风险：约90%营收来自PC与服务器，对IT支出周期极为敏感。2. 竞争风险：在核心CPU市场持续面临AMD的激烈竞争。3. 客户集中风险：前几大PC OEM客户合计贡献约45%营收，大客户订单下滑将带来显著负面影响。4. 宏观经济风险：业务遍布全球， prolonged 的宏观经济下行或上行会影响其业绩与评级。04 |总结【核心观点】Q4笔记本供应链数据因内存价格预期引发的战略性备货而短暂走强，为依赖该市场的半导体公司（尤其是INTC）提供了季度业绩的缓冲垫。但这并非需求侧的真实改善信号。【关键推断】Q1指引的大幅下滑（-15% QoQ vs. 季节性-9%）验证了终端需求的疲软和渠道库存回补的不可持续性。内存供应限制是表象，核心仍是终端消费与企业IT支出的放缓。【操作启示】该数据不足以扭转对PC半导体板块的结构性看跌观点。AMD因在AI/数据中心领域的增长叙事而获得估值支撑，维持中性；INTC因其对PC/服务器市场的极高敞口、竞争劣势及盈利能见度低，下行风险更甚，维持看跌。交易应回避对传统PC周期敏感的标的，关注库存去化进度与AI相关资本开支的持续性。...完整内容在星球了......深度星球订阅链接：https://t.zsxq.com/NR0qH本文所涉及一切内容仅供分享参考，接收人不因阅读本文而被视为我方客户，也不构成向任何人发出出售或购买证券或其他投资标的的邀请，更不构成交易依据。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，本文所有信息及观点均不构成任何投资建议；过往业绩不代表未来表现，投资者应依据自身风险承受能力进行审慎评估、独立决策并自行承担全部责任。任何情况下，我方均不对因使用本文内容而产生的任何损失承担责任。相关数据可能存在滞后或误差，我方不对信息的完整性及准确性承担法律责任。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"04335":1.95,"AMD":1.93,"INTC":1.95}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1582,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["INTC"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":115,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":521289495974624,"commentId":"521289495974624","gmtCreate":1768302806033,"gmtModify":1768309057862,"authorId":40182151190748,"author":{"id":40182151190748,"idStr":"40182151190748","authorId":40182151190748,"name":"Heinz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":521294095663128,"objectIdStr":"521294095663128","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"foundry[贱笑]","text":"foundry[贱笑]","html":"foundry[贱笑]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":521296176358120,"commentId":"521296176358120","gmtCreate":1768298448612,"gmtModify":1768298454569,"authorId":11107014341500,"author":{"id":11107014341500,"idStr":"11107014341500","authorId":11107014341500,"name":"天空使者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c86841c011641e27a5e95607f7abd2c9","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":521294095663128,"objectIdStr":"521294095663128","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"花旗没上车，后悔了\n ","text":"花旗没上车，后悔了\n ","html":"花旗没上车，后悔了\n ","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}

花旗：卖出英特尔与AMD！

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