2026 W03 汇总:美银押注太空太阳能革命
本周 TOP 10 IB Insight
01月16日 - 01月17日
每周投行观点汇总时间。本周最值得关注的几个核心分歧:美银把视野拉到了太空,认为太空太阳能才是AI电力瓶颈的终极解决方案;伯恩斯坦逆向看多中国AI产业,认为中国将把"推理"做成下一个光伏产业。
01 科技前沿/能源变革 Tech Frontier / Energy
太空太阳能不再是科幻:美银认为这是解决AI算力电力瓶颈的终极方案,相关供应链正在重估
"Space-based solar could be a game changer opportunity... Space-based solar could emerge as a long-term game changer as related supply chains may see a sharp re-rating from weak levels. We highlight Suzhou Maxwell (HJT and perovskite cell equipment), Jinko Solar... Ming Yang... are exposed to this theme."
BofA 美银 · 《Utilities - HK/China (H/A): 6 themes for 2026》 · 2026-01-16
02 中国资产看多/AI产业 China Bull / AI Industry
中国将把"AI推理"变成下一个光伏——通过制造优势将成本打到地板价,实现全球份额"降维打击"
"In the fullness of time, it would surprise us if AI inference didn't become another industry where the Chinese ability to productionise new tech and reduce costs drove share gains - especially behind the leading edge... China's AI model performance gap vs the US further shrank to 6% (from 8%)."
Bernstein 伯恩斯坦 · 《China Internet: AI Remains The Dominant Narrative In China Internet》 · 2026-01-16
03 科技前沿/电力基建 Tech Frontier / Power Infra
AI数据中心电力需求将出现史诗级挤兑:到2035年,仅数据中心就将消耗英国44%的电力
"By 2035, the UK, Spain and Finland could see up to 44%, 24% and 34% of their power demand coming from DCs, respectively... The US data centre industry is one of the most powerful structural demand drivers in commercial real estate."
Barclays 巴克莱 · 《Investment Companies: Wrap: 2026 Opportunities》 · 2026-01-16
04 科技前沿/材料科学 Tech Frontier / Materials
材料科学正从"试错法"转向"量子行为定义",未来十年技术突破将源于原子层面的计算与设计
"Materials are increasingly defined by their quantum behavior... Advances in computation are changing this dynamic... allowing scientists to design materials based not only on simplified assumptions, but on how they behave in complex, real-world environments... This opens the door to new classes of materials... from advanced batteries to superconductors."
Capgemini 凯捷 · 《Top Tech Trends of 2026》 · 2026-01-17
05 科技前沿/硬件架构 Tech Frontier / Hardware
英伟达Rubin芯片将引爆"800V直流电架构"革命,彻底改变数据中心配电标准
"The 800 V DC system is an architectural shift for data centers... Full-scale production of 800 V DC data centers will coincide with NVIDIA Kyber rack-scale systems in 2027... aimed at improving efficiency, reducing copper usage, and increasing power density in server racks to over 1 MW."
UBS 瑞银 · 《Global/EMEA Sustainability: ESG News & Views》 · 2026-01-16
06 宏观货币政策 Macro / Monetary Policy
黄金与实际利率的负相关已破裂:新的驱动力是全球"民粹主义"兴起及随之而来的财政失纪
"The first two relate to gold's price breaking with its long held negative historical correlation with real yields... Populism can be viewed as a frustration and mistrust over the effectiveness of orthodox economic policies... What is clear is that the share of countries with populist measures is at a historical high, coinciding with the significant rally in gold prices."
BofA 美银 · 《Global Emerging Markets Weekly: Decoupling meets populism》 · 2026-01-16
07 科技前沿/生物科技 Tech Frontier / Biotech
AI将成为药物发现的主要"发明者":未来十年内63%的新分子实体将直接源自AI驱动平台
"63% anticipate that most new molecular entities (NMEs) will originate from AI-driven platforms within the next decade... AI is emerging as a powerful catalyst for breakthroughs in R&D... streamlining discovery, optimizing trial design, and enabling predictive insights."
Capgemini 凯捷 · 《Smart bet, only option, or both? Biopharma R&D turns to AI》 · 2026-01-17
08 地缘政治/量化策略 Geopolitics / Quant Strategy
欧洲"价值股"策略正在失效:因空头端包含大量国防股,而国防股因地缘政治已变成高增长股
"Value's short exposure to Industrials has been a key drag, as defence-led Industrials have outperformed amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty... Defence stocks, which have historically featured more prominently within Value portfolios, are increasingly represented toward the more expensive end... contributing to the short exposure embedded in Value strategies."
Morgan Stanley 摩根士丹利 · 《Quant Matters: Value Under Pressure in Europe》 · 2026-01-16
09 科技前沿/云计算风险 Tech Frontier / Cloud Risk
Neo-Cloud(如CoreWeave)正在挑战传统巨头,但带来巨大租户信用风险——数百亿订单、零信用历史
"The most disruptive trend is the rise of neo-cloud providers such as Coreweave... offering vertically integrated, GPU-centric solutions... However, these providers introduce new tenant counterparty risks... limited credit history compared to hyperscalers like AWS... facilities with lower redundancy or limited flexibility risk becoming stranded assets."
Knight Frank 莱坊 · 《Data Centres: The AI Era》 · 2026-01-17
10 中国资产看多/资金流向 China Bull / Fund Flows
硬数据打脸市场情绪:中国12月录得2015年以来最大规模外汇流入,外资正通过ETF悄悄抄底工业板块
"SAFE data suggest the largest-ever FX inflows since 2015 in Dec... Sectorally, regional funds are most OW China Industrials... NT (National Team) buying signal: Net subscription of top 5 NT holdings ETFs (as % of total) > 2 s.d."
Goldman Sachs 高盛 · 《China Weekly Kickstart: Offshore gained 2% while A-shares lost 1%》 · 2026-01-16
下周见口罩哥的星球独家汇总
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