这波我站tcl这边，_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

五撇须
05-17

这波我站tcl这边，办公软件肯定会被AI影响甚多，即使强如微软也不可避免，相对于谷歌微软当前确实是弱势，微软最大的筹码就是open AI的大股东身份，自己做的模型相当失败要不是有云计算平台回血当跟Meta一样更差，谷歌不仅自己大模型跟open AI不相上下，手里也有A的股份，还能生产TPU跟英伟达竞争，还有要上市的spaceX的巨额股份回报，看看伯克希尔都在大举买入谷歌，而阿克曼我觉得这个人始终有很深投机的成分，从疫情做空大赚29亿美金到当年在保健品公司打的那一仗落荒而逃到现在以市盈率低买入微软，实在是不够高明

微软的“剧烈分歧”：知名科技基金80亿美元清仓，知名对冲基金Ackman24亿美元抄底

多空大佬对决，微软AI前景引发百亿资金豪赌。TCI创始人Hohn因担忧AI颠覆Office和云业务，几乎清仓价值80亿美元的微软股票并反手加码谷歌；而潘兴广场Ackman则以21倍市盈率逆向抄底24亿美元，力挺M365与Azure拥有不可复制的壁垒。

微软的“剧烈分歧”：知名科技基金80亿美元清仓，知名对冲基金Ackman24亿美元抄底

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365的企业护城河&#34;几乎无法复制&#34;，Azure增势强劲，市场的担忧&#34;完全错位&#34;；Hohn则在致投资者的信中明确警告AI颠覆风险，并同步将Alphabet持仓从3%提升至5%，列为该基金最大科技持仓。</p><p>这场顶级投资人之间的公开博弈，一定程度上提振了近期承压的微软股价。周五，微软收涨3.05%，而Ackman同步表态减持的Alphabet A股则收跌1.07%。微软股价年内累计下跌逾15%，市场对其能否将AI巨额投入转化为商业回报的疑虑至今未消。</p><h2 id=\"id_4274301827\">空方：AI是微软的&#34;威胁&#34;，TCI近十年重仓悉数出清</h2><p>TCI自2017年第四季度起几乎持续持有微软股份，期间微软股价累计涨幅接近400%，TCI亦从这段长达近十年的投资关系中获益颇丰。此番大幅减仓，标志着该仓位的实质性终结。</p><p>Hohn在投资者信中将担忧集中于两个层面。<strong>其一是Office办公软件业务</strong>：他认为AI的快速演进可能重塑工作流程、催生新一代生产力平台，进而动摇微软Office长期以来的市场主导地位。<strong>其二是云平台Azure</strong>：Hohn同样对其增长前景表达了&#34;一定程度的风险&#34;判断。此次大幅减仓发生在微软股价年内已累计下跌逾15%的背景下，折射出市场对微软AI商业化进程的普遍疑虑——投资者开始质疑，持续扩大的AI资本支出能否转化为可量化的商业回报。</p><p>在减持微软的同时，TCI对Alphabet采取了截然相反的操作，将其持仓比例从3%提升至5%，使其成为该基金目前规模最大的科技持仓。这一调仓动作揭示了TCI在科技板块内部的结构性重新布局——<strong>从微软转向Alphabet</strong>。</p><p>值得注意的是，TCI整体上并非一只科技主题基金，科技股在其投资组合中占比相对有限。其核心配置集中于基础设施和航空航天领域：第一大重仓股为GE Aerospace，占投资组合比例高达18%；其他主要持仓包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>、Moody&#39;s及基础设施公司Ferrovial。TCI目前持仓仅覆盖15只股票，Hohn以持股周期长著称，平均持股时长约为九年，远超大多数对冲基金同行。TCI去年以189亿美元的投资者盈利荣登全球最赚钱对冲基金榜首，超越Ken Griffin旗下Citadel和Izzy Englander旗下Millennium。</p><h2 id=\"id_3668942703\">多方：M365与Azure护城河&#34;几乎无法复制&#34;，Ackman逆向抄底</h2><p>Ackman在X平台发布了一篇详细分析长文，从企业竞争壁垒、估值安全边际和市场结构三个维度，逐一回应市场对微软的担忧。</p><p>在M365层面，他指出该套件目前拥有逾4.5亿活跃用户，Word、Excel、PowerPoint、Outlook和Teams已深度嵌入几乎所有大型企业的日常工作流程，并依托微软数十年积累的身份验证、安全合规与数据治理基础设施提供支撑，<strong>护城河&#34;几乎无法复制&#34;。</strong>他还援引捆绑定价优势：M365月均每用户收费约20美元，不足用户分散采购同类工具所需成本的一半。M365与Azure合计贡献微软整体利润约70%。上季度，M365收入同比增长15%（按不变汇率计算）。</p><p>在Azure层面<strong>，Ackman认为外界的担忧&#34;同样错位&#34;。</strong>他援引Azure上季度39%的不变汇率收入增速，并指出微软已将2026年全年资本支出预算提升至约1900亿美元，其中约三分之二用于服务器及网络设备，与近期收入直接相关，并预计下半年增速将温和加速。</p><p>针对市场对微软调整与OpenAI合作关系的负面解读，Ackman亦给出了不同判断——微软放弃独家销售OpenAI模型的权利，在他看来并非退让，而是向&#34;更开放的多模型架构&#34;的主动转型，更有利于服务需要跨模型灵活部署的企业客户。他援引数据指出，已有逾10,000家企业客户在微软AI模型市场Azure Foundry上使用了多个模型。</p><p>Ackman还指出一个被市场忽略的估值因素：<strong>微软约27%的OpenAI经济利益，按OpenAI最新一轮融资估值测算约合2000亿美元，占微软市值的7%，但目前尚未反映在约21倍的远期市盈率之中</strong>——而这一估值水平与整体市场基本持平，远低于微软近年来的历史均值。</p><h2 id=\"id_3135650108\">AI叙事的根本分歧</h2><p>双方争议的核心，在于对AI与现有软件生态关系的根本性判断不同。</p><p>Hohn持&#34;颠覆派&#34;立场：AI将催生全新的生产力入口，进而侵蚀微软Office数十年积累的用户壁垒。Ackman则持&#34;强化派&#34;立场：AI将以增量功能嵌入现有平台，微软凭借CEO Satya Nadella直接参与主导的Copilot深度整合，以及Azure向多模型架构的转型，将成为AI浪潮中最大的企业级受益者之一。</p><p>对于微软今年4月放弃独家销售OpenAI模型权利一事——市场普遍将其解读为向OpenAI的让步——Ackman将其重新定性为&#34;有意向更开放的多模型架构转型&#34;，更有利于服务日益寻求多模型选择权的企业客户。他援引数据称，目前已有逾1万家企业客户在Azure Foundry上使用了超过一个模型。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n微软的“剧烈分歧”：知名科技基金80亿美元清仓，知名对冲基金Ackman24亿美元抄底\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-16 12:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>多空大佬对决，微软AI前景引发百亿资金豪赌。TCI创始人Hohn因担忧AI颠覆Office和云业务，几乎清仓价值80亿美元的微软股票并反手加码谷歌；而潘兴广场Ackman则以21倍市盈率逆向抄底24亿美元，力挺M365与Azure拥有不可复制的壁垒。</p></blockquote><p>围绕人工智能究竟是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>核心业务的&#34;威胁&#34;还是增长引擎，两位全球顶级基金经理之间爆发了一场方向截然相反的巨额押注，微软的长期投资价值因此成为当下市场最具争议的议题之一。</p><p>英国对冲基金TCI创始人Sir Christopher Hohn以约80亿美元的规模几乎悉数清仓微软，将持仓从投资组合的10%大幅压缩至1%，警告AI的快速演进正对微软Office与Azure构成结构性威胁；美国亿万富翁Bill Ackman则宣布，其旗下潘兴广场（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSHZF\">Pershing Square</a>）已新建约24亿美元的微软核心持仓，并在当日提交的13F文件中予以披露，直接反驳Hohn的判断，称其&#34;错了&#34;。</p><p>Ackman在X平台详述建仓逻辑，以21倍远期市盈率入场，认为Microsoft 365的企业护城河&#34;几乎无法复制&#34;，Azure增势强劲，市场的担忧&#34;完全错位&#34;；Hohn则在致投资者的信中明确警告AI颠覆风险，并同步将Alphabet持仓从3%提升至5%，列为该基金最大科技持仓。</p><p>这场顶级投资人之间的公开博弈，一定程度上提振了近期承压的微软股价。周五，微软收涨3.05%，而Ackman同步表态减持的Alphabet A股则收跌1.07%。微软股价年内累计下跌逾15%，市场对其能否将AI巨额投入转化为商业回报的疑虑至今未消。</p><h2 id=\"id_4274301827\">空方：AI是微软的&#34;威胁&#34;，TCI近十年重仓悉数出清</h2><p>TCI自2017年第四季度起几乎持续持有微软股份，期间微软股价累计涨幅接近400%，TCI亦从这段长达近十年的投资关系中获益颇丰。此番大幅减仓，标志着该仓位的实质性终结。</p><p>Hohn在投资者信中将担忧集中于两个层面。<strong>其一是Office办公软件业务</strong>：他认为AI的快速演进可能重塑工作流程、催生新一代生产力平台，进而动摇微软Office长期以来的市场主导地位。<strong>其二是云平台Azure</strong>：Hohn同样对其增长前景表达了&#34;一定程度的风险&#34;判断。此次大幅减仓发生在微软股价年内已累计下跌逾15%的背景下，折射出市场对微软AI商业化进程的普遍疑虑——投资者开始质疑，持续扩大的AI资本支出能否转化为可量化的商业回报。</p><p>在减持微软的同时，TCI对Alphabet采取了截然相反的操作，将其持仓比例从3%提升至5%，使其成为该基金目前规模最大的科技持仓。这一调仓动作揭示了TCI在科技板块内部的结构性重新布局——<strong>从微软转向Alphabet</strong>。</p><p>值得注意的是，TCI整体上并非一只科技主题基金，科技股在其投资组合中占比相对有限。其核心配置集中于基础设施和航空航天领域：第一大重仓股为GE Aerospace，占投资组合比例高达18%；其他主要持仓包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>、Moody&#39;s及基础设施公司Ferrovial。TCI目前持仓仅覆盖15只股票，Hohn以持股周期长著称，平均持股时长约为九年，远超大多数对冲基金同行。TCI去年以189亿美元的投资者盈利荣登全球最赚钱对冲基金榜首，超越Ken Griffin旗下Citadel和Izzy Englander旗下Millennium。</p><h2 id=\"id_3668942703\">多方：M365与Azure护城河&#34;几乎无法复制&#34;，Ackman逆向抄底</h2><p>Ackman在X平台发布了一篇详细分析长文，从企业竞争壁垒、估值安全边际和市场结构三个维度，逐一回应市场对微软的担忧。</p><p>在M365层面，他指出该套件目前拥有逾4.5亿活跃用户，Word、Excel、PowerPoint、Outlook和Teams已深度嵌入几乎所有大型企业的日常工作流程，并依托微软数十年积累的身份验证、安全合规与数据治理基础设施提供支撑，<strong>护城河&#34;几乎无法复制&#34;。</strong>他还援引捆绑定价优势：M365月均每用户收费约20美元，不足用户分散采购同类工具所需成本的一半。M365与Azure合计贡献微软整体利润约70%。上季度，M365收入同比增长15%（按不变汇率计算）。</p><p>在Azure层面<strong>，Ackman认为外界的担忧&#34;同样错位&#34;。</strong>他援引Azure上季度39%的不变汇率收入增速，并指出微软已将2026年全年资本支出预算提升至约1900亿美元，其中约三分之二用于服务器及网络设备，与近期收入直接相关，并预计下半年增速将温和加速。</p><p>针对市场对微软调整与OpenAI合作关系的负面解读，Ackman亦给出了不同判断——微软放弃独家销售OpenAI模型的权利，在他看来并非退让，而是向&#34;更开放的多模型架构&#34;的主动转型，更有利于服务需要跨模型灵活部署的企业客户。他援引数据指出，已有逾10,000家企业客户在微软AI模型市场Azure Foundry上使用了多个模型。</p><p>Ackman还指出一个被市场忽略的估值因素：<strong>微软约27%的OpenAI经济利益，按OpenAI最新一轮融资估值测算约合2000亿美元，占微软市值的7%，但目前尚未反映在约21倍的远期市盈率之中</strong>——而这一估值水平与整体市场基本持平，远低于微软近年来的历史均值。</p><h2 id=\"id_3135650108\">AI叙事的根本分歧</h2><p>双方争议的核心，在于对AI与现有软件生态关系的根本性判断不同。</p><p>Hohn持&#34;颠覆派&#34;立场：AI将催生全新的生产力入口，进而侵蚀微软Office数十年积累的用户壁垒。Ackman则持&#34;强化派&#34;立场：AI将以增量功能嵌入现有平台，微软凭借CEO Satya Nadella直接参与主导的Copilot深度整合，以及Azure向多模型架构的转型，将成为AI浪潮中最大的企业级受益者之一。</p><p>对于微软今年4月放弃独家销售OpenAI模型权利一事——市场普遍将其解读为向OpenAI的让步——Ackman将其重新定性为&#34;有意向更开放的多模型架构转型&#34;，更有利于服务日益寻求多模型选择权的企业客户。他援引数据称，目前已有逾1万家企业客户在Azure Foundry上使用了超过一个模型。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54720eb51050254e71d6298681bc4fdb","relate_stocks":{"LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU2413666426.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"C\" (HKD) ACC","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) 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ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772413","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2635054971","content_text":"多空大佬对决，微软AI前景引发百亿资金豪赌。TCI创始人Hohn因担忧AI颠覆Office和云业务，几乎清仓价值80亿美元的微软股票并反手加码谷歌；而潘兴广场Ackman则以21倍市盈率逆向抄底24亿美元，力挺M365与Azure拥有不可复制的壁垒。围绕人工智能究竟是微软核心业务的\"威胁\"还是增长引擎，两位全球顶级基金经理之间爆发了一场方向截然相反的巨额押注，微软的长期投资价值因此成为当下市场最具争议的议题之一。英国对冲基金TCI创始人Sir Christopher Hohn以约80亿美元的规模几乎悉数清仓微软，将持仓从投资组合的10%大幅压缩至1%，警告AI的快速演进正对微软Office与Azure构成结构性威胁；美国亿万富翁Bill Ackman则宣布，其旗下潘兴广场（Pershing Square）已新建约24亿美元的微软核心持仓，并在当日提交的13F文件中予以披露，直接反驳Hohn的判断，称其\"错了\"。Ackman在X平台详述建仓逻辑，以21倍远期市盈率入场，认为Microsoft 365的企业护城河\"几乎无法复制\"，Azure增势强劲，市场的担忧\"完全错位\"；Hohn则在致投资者的信中明确警告AI颠覆风险，并同步将Alphabet持仓从3%提升至5%，列为该基金最大科技持仓。这场顶级投资人之间的公开博弈，一定程度上提振了近期承压的微软股价。周五，微软收涨3.05%，而Ackman同步表态减持的Alphabet A股则收跌1.07%。微软股价年内累计下跌逾15%，市场对其能否将AI巨额投入转化为商业回报的疑虑至今未消。空方：AI是微软的\"威胁\"，TCI近十年重仓悉数出清TCI自2017年第四季度起几乎持续持有微软股份，期间微软股价累计涨幅接近400%，TCI亦从这段长达近十年的投资关系中获益颇丰。此番大幅减仓，标志着该仓位的实质性终结。Hohn在投资者信中将担忧集中于两个层面。其一是Office办公软件业务：他认为AI的快速演进可能重塑工作流程、催生新一代生产力平台，进而动摇微软Office长期以来的市场主导地位。其二是云平台Azure：Hohn同样对其增长前景表达了\"一定程度的风险\"判断。此次大幅减仓发生在微软股价年内已累计下跌逾15%的背景下，折射出市场对微软AI商业化进程的普遍疑虑——投资者开始质疑，持续扩大的AI资本支出能否转化为可量化的商业回报。在减持微软的同时，TCI对Alphabet采取了截然相反的操作，将其持仓比例从3%提升至5%，使其成为该基金目前规模最大的科技持仓。这一调仓动作揭示了TCI在科技板块内部的结构性重新布局——从微软转向Alphabet。值得注意的是，TCI整体上并非一只科技主题基金，科技股在其投资组合中占比相对有限。其核心配置集中于基础设施和航空航天领域：第一大重仓股为GE Aerospace，占投资组合比例高达18%；其他主要持仓包括Visa、Moody's及基础设施公司Ferrovial。TCI目前持仓仅覆盖15只股票，Hohn以持股周期长著称，平均持股时长约为九年，远超大多数对冲基金同行。TCI去年以189亿美元的投资者盈利荣登全球最赚钱对冲基金榜首，超越Ken Griffin旗下Citadel和Izzy Englander旗下Millennium。多方：M365与Azure护城河\"几乎无法复制\"，Ackman逆向抄底Ackman在X平台发布了一篇详细分析长文，从企业竞争壁垒、估值安全边际和市场结构三个维度，逐一回应市场对微软的担忧。在M365层面，他指出该套件目前拥有逾4.5亿活跃用户，Word、Excel、PowerPoint、Outlook和Teams已深度嵌入几乎所有大型企业的日常工作流程，并依托微软数十年积累的身份验证、安全合规与数据治理基础设施提供支撑，护城河\"几乎无法复制\"。他还援引捆绑定价优势：M365月均每用户收费约20美元，不足用户分散采购同类工具所需成本的一半。M365与Azure合计贡献微软整体利润约70%。上季度，M365收入同比增长15%（按不变汇率计算）。在Azure层面，Ackman认为外界的担忧\"同样错位\"。他援引Azure上季度39%的不变汇率收入增速，并指出微软已将2026年全年资本支出预算提升至约1900亿美元，其中约三分之二用于服务器及网络设备，与近期收入直接相关，并预计下半年增速将温和加速。针对市场对微软调整与OpenAI合作关系的负面解读，Ackman亦给出了不同判断——微软放弃独家销售OpenAI模型的权利，在他看来并非退让，而是向\"更开放的多模型架构\"的主动转型，更有利于服务需要跨模型灵活部署的企业客户。他援引数据指出，已有逾10,000家企业客户在微软AI模型市场Azure Foundry上使用了多个模型。Ackman还指出一个被市场忽略的估值因素：微软约27%的OpenAI经济利益，按OpenAI最新一轮融资估值测算约合2000亿美元，占微软市值的7%，但目前尚未反映在约21倍的远期市盈率之中——而这一估值水平与整体市场基本持平，远低于微软近年来的历史均值。AI叙事的根本分歧双方争议的核心，在于对AI与现有软件生态关系的根本性判断不同。Hohn持\"颠覆派\"立场：AI将催生全新的生产力入口，进而侵蚀微软Office数十年积累的用户壁垒。Ackman则持\"强化派\"立场：AI将以增量功能嵌入现有平台，微软凭借CEO Satya Nadella直接参与主导的Copilot深度整合，以及Azure向多模型架构的转型，将成为AI浪潮中最大的企业级受益者之一。对于微软今年4月放弃独家销售OpenAI模型权利一事——市场普遍将其解读为向OpenAI的让步——Ackman将其重新定性为\"有意向更开放的多模型架构转型\"，更有利于服务日益寻求多模型选择权的企业客户。他援引数据称，目前已有逾1万家企业客户在Azure Foundry上使用了超过一个模型。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFL":0.6,"MSFT":2,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["YMAG","SOCL","MAGY","XDAT","CHAT","AIPO","AGIX","ARTY","BULZ"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":466,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}