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五撇须
十年美股日内交易员
IP属地：福建
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五撇须
五撇须
·
05-17
这波我站tcl这边，办公软件肯定会被AI影响甚多，即使强如微软也不可避免，相对于谷歌微软当前确实是弱势，微软最大的筹码就是open AI的大股东身份，自己做的模型相当失败要不是有云计算平台回血当跟Meta一样更差，谷歌不仅自己大模型跟open AI不相上下，手里也有A的股份，还能生产TPU跟英伟达竞争，还有要上市的spaceX的巨额股份回报，看看伯克希尔都在大举买入谷歌，而阿克曼我觉得这个人始终有很深投机的成分，从疫情做空大赚29亿美金到当年在保健品公司打的那一仗落荒而逃到现在以市盈率低买入微软，实在是不够高明
微软的“剧烈分歧”：知名科技基金80亿美元清仓，知名对冲基金Ackman24亿美元抄底
多空大佬对决，微软AI前景引发百亿资金豪赌。TCI创始人Hohn因担忧AI颠覆Office和云业务，几乎清仓价值80亿美元的微软股票并反手加码谷歌；而潘兴广场Ackman则以21倍市盈率逆向抄底24亿美元，力挺M365与Azure拥有不可复制的壁垒。
微软的“剧烈分歧”：知名科技基金80亿美元清仓，知名对冲基金Ackman24亿美元抄底
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五撇须
五撇须
·
02-24
全部盈利大头都被英伟达台积电阿斯麦美光三星博通这些卖铲子赚走了，剩下毛线给AI公司盈利空间，竞争又那么激烈，用户又不是傻子
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五撇须
五撇须
·
2025-09-12
有意思的是，前几天博通财报本来没波动，也是因为接了open AI一百多亿的单子暴涨20%，这可是一万多亿美金市值的公司，谷歌也出来说芯片收入后续大幅增长也是大客户open AI，open AI要保持收入每年翻两倍的速度才能维持，就是AI还要继续大突破
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五撇须
五撇须
·
2025-09-05
连续几次都是财报出来波澜不惊，都是发布会出来才大涨，说明了什么
博通Q3 AI芯片收入超预期增63%，神秘新客户下单百亿，料下财年AI前景“大幅”改善
陈福阳称，博通正在与潜在客户合作开发AI加速器。陈福阳称，三季度博通的AI半导体营收同比增长63%至52亿美元，这也高于分析师预期的51.1亿美元。博通第二财季的AI芯片业务收入同比增长46%。陈福阳称，博通预计，四季度AI半导体营收增至62亿美元。博通2024财年的总营收将近516亿美元。博通2023年以610亿美元收购VMware，该业务现已成为其基础设施软件部门的核心，占前一财季销售额的44%。
博通Q3 AI芯片收入超预期增63%，神秘新客户下单百亿，料下财年AI前景“大幅”改善
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五撇须
五撇须
·
2025-08-06
使劲吹吧，就是一家寄生虫公司，靠着跟美国政府关系好生存的，CEO高位一直套现，当年帮着政府找到本拉登一直捞钱到现在，有政府背书还不好赚
Palantir 凭什么成为 AI 商业化第一股？
AI 核心引擎的崛起。
Palantir 凭什么成为 AI 商业化第一股？
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五撇须
五撇须
·
2025-02-21
$NQ100指数主连 2503(NQmain)$
三只市值最大的是涨的，大盘掉了一个点，护盘味道也太隆了，纳指只要一掉，几大科技股巨头就赶紧拉出一两只有个小利好来护盘，问题是这么高位了能护到几时
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五撇须
五撇须
·
2025-02-14
$黄金主连 2504(GCmain)$
避你**险，所有的风险资产都飞上天了，你避个逼险
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五撇须
五撇须
·
2024-08-20
Replying to
@老Know
:挺华为丢脸吗//
@老Know
:你用哪里看出来的我挺华为？😓
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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五撇须
五撇须
·
2024-07-09
$NQ100指数主连 2409(NQmain)$
会不会有点牛逼，是不是降息预期一直在就可以一直拉
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五撇须
五撇须
·
2024-06-26
$NQ100指数主连 2409(NQmain)$
亚马逊微软再拉新高，永远的纳指啊
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365的企业护城河"几乎无法复制"，Azure增势强劲，市场的担忧"完全错位"；Hohn则在致投资者的信中明确警告AI颠覆风险，并同步将Alphabet持仓从3%提升至5%，列为该基金最大科技持仓。</p><p>这场顶级投资人之间的公开博弈，一定程度上提振了近期承压的微软股价。周五，微软收涨3.05%，而Ackman同步表态减持的Alphabet A股则收跌1.07%。微软股价年内累计下跌逾15%，市场对其能否将AI巨额投入转化为商业回报的疑虑至今未消。</p><h2 id=\"id_4274301827\">空方：AI是微软的"威胁"，TCI近十年重仓悉数出清</h2><p>TCI自2017年第四季度起几乎持续持有微软股份，期间微软股价累计涨幅接近400%，TCI亦从这段长达近十年的投资关系中获益颇丰。此番大幅减仓，标志着该仓位的实质性终结。</p><p>Hohn在投资者信中将担忧集中于两个层面。<strong>其一是Office办公软件业务</strong>：他认为AI的快速演进可能重塑工作流程、催生新一代生产力平台，进而动摇微软Office长期以来的市场主导地位。<strong>其二是云平台Azure</strong>：Hohn同样对其增长前景表达了"一定程度的风险"判断。此次大幅减仓发生在微软股价年内已累计下跌逾15%的背景下，折射出市场对微软AI商业化进程的普遍疑虑——投资者开始质疑，持续扩大的AI资本支出能否转化为可量化的商业回报。</p><p>在减持微软的同时，TCI对Alphabet采取了截然相反的操作，将其持仓比例从3%提升至5%，使其成为该基金目前规模最大的科技持仓。这一调仓动作揭示了TCI在科技板块内部的结构性重新布局——<strong>从微软转向Alphabet</strong>。</p><p>值得注意的是，TCI整体上并非一只科技主题基金，科技股在其投资组合中占比相对有限。其核心配置集中于基础设施和航空航天领域：第一大重仓股为GE Aerospace，占投资组合比例高达18%；其他主要持仓包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>、Moody's及基础设施公司Ferrovial。TCI目前持仓仅覆盖15只股票，Hohn以持股周期长著称，平均持股时长约为九年，远超大多数对冲基金同行。TCI去年以189亿美元的投资者盈利荣登全球最赚钱对冲基金榜首，超越Ken Griffin旗下Citadel和Izzy Englander旗下Millennium。</p><h2 id=\"id_3668942703\">多方：M365与Azure护城河"几乎无法复制"，Ackman逆向抄底</h2><p>Ackman在X平台发布了一篇详细分析长文，从企业竞争壁垒、估值安全边际和市场结构三个维度，逐一回应市场对微软的担忧。</p><p>在M365层面，他指出该套件目前拥有逾4.5亿活跃用户，Word、Excel、PowerPoint、Outlook和Teams已深度嵌入几乎所有大型企业的日常工作流程，并依托微软数十年积累的身份验证、安全合规与数据治理基础设施提供支撑，<strong>护城河"几乎无法复制"。</strong>他还援引捆绑定价优势：M365月均每用户收费约20美元，不足用户分散采购同类工具所需成本的一半。M365与Azure合计贡献微软整体利润约70%。上季度，M365收入同比增长15%（按不变汇率计算）。</p><p>在Azure层面<strong>，Ackman认为外界的担忧"同样错位"。</strong>他援引Azure上季度39%的不变汇率收入增速，并指出微软已将2026年全年资本支出预算提升至约1900亿美元，其中约三分之二用于服务器及网络设备，与近期收入直接相关，并预计下半年增速将温和加速。</p><p>针对市场对微软调整与OpenAI合作关系的负面解读，Ackman亦给出了不同判断——微软放弃独家销售OpenAI模型的权利，在他看来并非退让，而是向"更开放的多模型架构"的主动转型，更有利于服务需要跨模型灵活部署的企业客户。他援引数据指出，已有逾10,000家企业客户在微软AI模型市场Azure Foundry上使用了多个模型。</p><p>Ackman还指出一个被市场忽略的估值因素：<strong>微软约27%的OpenAI经济利益，按OpenAI最新一轮融资估值测算约合2000亿美元，占微软市值的7%，但目前尚未反映在约21倍的远期市盈率之中</strong>——而这一估值水平与整体市场基本持平，远低于微软近年来的历史均值。</p><h2 id=\"id_3135650108\">AI叙事的根本分歧</h2><p>双方争议的核心，在于对AI与现有软件生态关系的根本性判断不同。</p><p>Hohn持"颠覆派"立场：AI将催生全新的生产力入口，进而侵蚀微软Office数十年积累的用户壁垒。Ackman则持"强化派"立场：AI将以增量功能嵌入现有平台，微软凭借CEO Satya Nadella直接参与主导的Copilot深度整合，以及Azure向多模型架构的转型，将成为AI浪潮中最大的企业级受益者之一。</p><p>对于微软今年4月放弃独家销售OpenAI模型权利一事——市场普遍将其解读为向OpenAI的让步——Ackman将其重新定性为"有意向更开放的多模型架构转型"，更有利于服务日益寻求多模型选择权的企业客户。他援引数据称，目前已有逾1万家企业客户在Azure Foundry上使用了超过一个模型。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>微软的“剧烈分歧”：知名科技基金80亿美元清仓，知名对冲基金Ackman24亿美元抄底</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n微软的“剧烈分歧”：知名科技基金80亿美元清仓，知名对冲基金Ackman24亿美元抄底\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-16 12:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>多空大佬对决，微软AI前景引发百亿资金豪赌。TCI创始人Hohn因担忧AI颠覆Office和云业务，几乎清仓价值80亿美元的微软股票并反手加码谷歌；而潘兴广场Ackman则以21倍市盈率逆向抄底24亿美元，力挺M365与Azure拥有不可复制的壁垒。</p></blockquote><p>围绕人工智能究竟是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>核心业务的"威胁"还是增长引擎，两位全球顶级基金经理之间爆发了一场方向截然相反的巨额押注，微软的长期投资价值因此成为当下市场最具争议的议题之一。</p><p>英国对冲基金TCI创始人Sir Christopher Hohn以约80亿美元的规模几乎悉数清仓微软，将持仓从投资组合的10%大幅压缩至1%，警告AI的快速演进正对微软Office与Azure构成结构性威胁；美国亿万富翁Bill Ackman则宣布，其旗下潘兴广场（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSHZF\">Pershing Square</a>）已新建约24亿美元的微软核心持仓，并在当日提交的13F文件中予以披露，直接反驳Hohn的判断，称其"错了"。</p><p>Ackman在X平台详述建仓逻辑，以21倍远期市盈率入场，认为Microsoft 365的企业护城河"几乎无法复制"，Azure增势强劲，市场的担忧"完全错位"；Hohn则在致投资者的信中明确警告AI颠覆风险，并同步将Alphabet持仓从3%提升至5%，列为该基金最大科技持仓。</p><p>这场顶级投资人之间的公开博弈，一定程度上提振了近期承压的微软股价。周五，微软收涨3.05%，而Ackman同步表态减持的Alphabet A股则收跌1.07%。微软股价年内累计下跌逾15%，市场对其能否将AI巨额投入转化为商业回报的疑虑至今未消。</p><h2 id=\"id_4274301827\">空方：AI是微软的"威胁"，TCI近十年重仓悉数出清</h2><p>TCI自2017年第四季度起几乎持续持有微软股份，期间微软股价累计涨幅接近400%，TCI亦从这段长达近十年的投资关系中获益颇丰。此番大幅减仓，标志着该仓位的实质性终结。</p><p>Hohn在投资者信中将担忧集中于两个层面。<strong>其一是Office办公软件业务</strong>：他认为AI的快速演进可能重塑工作流程、催生新一代生产力平台，进而动摇微软Office长期以来的市场主导地位。<strong>其二是云平台Azure</strong>：Hohn同样对其增长前景表达了"一定程度的风险"判断。此次大幅减仓发生在微软股价年内已累计下跌逾15%的背景下，折射出市场对微软AI商业化进程的普遍疑虑——投资者开始质疑，持续扩大的AI资本支出能否转化为可量化的商业回报。</p><p>在减持微软的同时，TCI对Alphabet采取了截然相反的操作，将其持仓比例从3%提升至5%，使其成为该基金目前规模最大的科技持仓。这一调仓动作揭示了TCI在科技板块内部的结构性重新布局——<strong>从微软转向Alphabet</strong>。</p><p>值得注意的是，TCI整体上并非一只科技主题基金，科技股在其投资组合中占比相对有限。其核心配置集中于基础设施和航空航天领域：第一大重仓股为GE Aerospace，占投资组合比例高达18%；其他主要持仓包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>、Moody's及基础设施公司Ferrovial。TCI目前持仓仅覆盖15只股票，Hohn以持股周期长著称，平均持股时长约为九年，远超大多数对冲基金同行。TCI去年以189亿美元的投资者盈利荣登全球最赚钱对冲基金榜首，超越Ken Griffin旗下Citadel和Izzy Englander旗下Millennium。</p><h2 id=\"id_3668942703\">多方：M365与Azure护城河"几乎无法复制"，Ackman逆向抄底</h2><p>Ackman在X平台发布了一篇详细分析长文，从企业竞争壁垒、估值安全边际和市场结构三个维度，逐一回应市场对微软的担忧。</p><p>在M365层面，他指出该套件目前拥有逾4.5亿活跃用户，Word、Excel、PowerPoint、Outlook和Teams已深度嵌入几乎所有大型企业的日常工作流程，并依托微软数十年积累的身份验证、安全合规与数据治理基础设施提供支撑，<strong>护城河"几乎无法复制"。</strong>他还援引捆绑定价优势：M365月均每用户收费约20美元，不足用户分散采购同类工具所需成本的一半。M365与Azure合计贡献微软整体利润约70%。上季度，M365收入同比增长15%（按不变汇率计算）。</p><p>在Azure层面<strong>，Ackman认为外界的担忧"同样错位"。</strong>他援引Azure上季度39%的不变汇率收入增速，并指出微软已将2026年全年资本支出预算提升至约1900亿美元，其中约三分之二用于服务器及网络设备，与近期收入直接相关，并预计下半年增速将温和加速。</p><p>针对市场对微软调整与OpenAI合作关系的负面解读，Ackman亦给出了不同判断——微软放弃独家销售OpenAI模型的权利，在他看来并非退让，而是向"更开放的多模型架构"的主动转型，更有利于服务需要跨模型灵活部署的企业客户。他援引数据指出，已有逾10,000家企业客户在微软AI模型市场Azure Foundry上使用了多个模型。</p><p>Ackman还指出一个被市场忽略的估值因素：<strong>微软约27%的OpenAI经济利益，按OpenAI最新一轮融资估值测算约合2000亿美元，占微软市值的7%，但目前尚未反映在约21倍的远期市盈率之中</strong>——而这一估值水平与整体市场基本持平，远低于微软近年来的历史均值。</p><h2 id=\"id_3135650108\">AI叙事的根本分歧</h2><p>双方争议的核心，在于对AI与现有软件生态关系的根本性判断不同。</p><p>Hohn持"颠覆派"立场：AI将催生全新的生产力入口，进而侵蚀微软Office数十年积累的用户壁垒。Ackman则持"强化派"立场：AI将以增量功能嵌入现有平台，微软凭借CEO Satya Nadella直接参与主导的Copilot深度整合，以及Azure向多模型架构的转型，将成为AI浪潮中最大的企业级受益者之一。</p><p>对于微软今年4月放弃独家销售OpenAI模型权利一事——市场普遍将其解读为向OpenAI的让步——Ackman将其重新定性为"有意向更开放的多模型架构转型"，更有利于服务日益寻求多模型选择权的企业客户。他援引数据称，目前已有逾1万家企业客户在Azure Foundry上使用了超过一个模型。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54720eb51050254e71d6298681bc4fdb","relate_stocks":{"LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU2413666426.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"C\" (HKD) ACC","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0784385170.HKD":"BGF 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ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772413","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2635054971","content_text":"多空大佬对决，微软AI前景引发百亿资金豪赌。TCI创始人Hohn因担忧AI颠覆Office和云业务，几乎清仓价值80亿美元的微软股票并反手加码谷歌；而潘兴广场Ackman则以21倍市盈率逆向抄底24亿美元，力挺M365与Azure拥有不可复制的壁垒。围绕人工智能究竟是微软核心业务的\"威胁\"还是增长引擎，两位全球顶级基金经理之间爆发了一场方向截然相反的巨额押注，微软的长期投资价值因此成为当下市场最具争议的议题之一。英国对冲基金TCI创始人Sir Christopher Hohn以约80亿美元的规模几乎悉数清仓微软，将持仓从投资组合的10%大幅压缩至1%，警告AI的快速演进正对微软Office与Azure构成结构性威胁；美国亿万富翁Bill Ackman则宣布，其旗下潘兴广场（Pershing Square）已新建约24亿美元的微软核心持仓，并在当日提交的13F文件中予以披露，直接反驳Hohn的判断，称其\"错了\"。Ackman在X平台详述建仓逻辑，以21倍远期市盈率入场，认为Microsoft 365的企业护城河\"几乎无法复制\"，Azure增势强劲，市场的担忧\"完全错位\"；Hohn则在致投资者的信中明确警告AI颠覆风险，并同步将Alphabet持仓从3%提升至5%，列为该基金最大科技持仓。这场顶级投资人之间的公开博弈，一定程度上提振了近期承压的微软股价。周五，微软收涨3.05%，而Ackman同步表态减持的Alphabet A股则收跌1.07%。微软股价年内累计下跌逾15%，市场对其能否将AI巨额投入转化为商业回报的疑虑至今未消。空方：AI是微软的\"威胁\"，TCI近十年重仓悉数出清TCI自2017年第四季度起几乎持续持有微软股份，期间微软股价累计涨幅接近400%，TCI亦从这段长达近十年的投资关系中获益颇丰。此番大幅减仓，标志着该仓位的实质性终结。Hohn在投资者信中将担忧集中于两个层面。其一是Office办公软件业务：他认为AI的快速演进可能重塑工作流程、催生新一代生产力平台，进而动摇微软Office长期以来的市场主导地位。其二是云平台Azure：Hohn同样对其增长前景表达了\"一定程度的风险\"判断。此次大幅减仓发生在微软股价年内已累计下跌逾15%的背景下，折射出市场对微软AI商业化进程的普遍疑虑——投资者开始质疑，持续扩大的AI资本支出能否转化为可量化的商业回报。在减持微软的同时，TCI对Alphabet采取了截然相反的操作，将其持仓比例从3%提升至5%，使其成为该基金目前规模最大的科技持仓。这一调仓动作揭示了TCI在科技板块内部的结构性重新布局——从微软转向Alphabet。值得注意的是，TCI整体上并非一只科技主题基金，科技股在其投资组合中占比相对有限。其核心配置集中于基础设施和航空航天领域：第一大重仓股为GE Aerospace，占投资组合比例高达18%；其他主要持仓包括Visa、Moody's及基础设施公司Ferrovial。TCI目前持仓仅覆盖15只股票，Hohn以持股周期长著称，平均持股时长约为九年，远超大多数对冲基金同行。TCI去年以189亿美元的投资者盈利荣登全球最赚钱对冲基金榜首，超越Ken Griffin旗下Citadel和Izzy Englander旗下Millennium。多方：M365与Azure护城河\"几乎无法复制\"，Ackman逆向抄底Ackman在X平台发布了一篇详细分析长文，从企业竞争壁垒、估值安全边际和市场结构三个维度，逐一回应市场对微软的担忧。在M365层面，他指出该套件目前拥有逾4.5亿活跃用户，Word、Excel、PowerPoint、Outlook和Teams已深度嵌入几乎所有大型企业的日常工作流程，并依托微软数十年积累的身份验证、安全合规与数据治理基础设施提供支撑，护城河\"几乎无法复制\"。他还援引捆绑定价优势：M365月均每用户收费约20美元，不足用户分散采购同类工具所需成本的一半。M365与Azure合计贡献微软整体利润约70%。上季度，M365收入同比增长15%（按不变汇率计算）。在Azure层面，Ackman认为外界的担忧\"同样错位\"。他援引Azure上季度39%的不变汇率收入增速，并指出微软已将2026年全年资本支出预算提升至约1900亿美元，其中约三分之二用于服务器及网络设备，与近期收入直接相关，并预计下半年增速将温和加速。针对市场对微软调整与OpenAI合作关系的负面解读，Ackman亦给出了不同判断——微软放弃独家销售OpenAI模型的权利，在他看来并非退让，而是向\"更开放的多模型架构\"的主动转型，更有利于服务需要跨模型灵活部署的企业客户。他援引数据指出，已有逾10,000家企业客户在微软AI模型市场Azure Foundry上使用了多个模型。Ackman还指出一个被市场忽略的估值因素：微软约27%的OpenAI经济利益，按OpenAI最新一轮融资估值测算约合2000亿美元，占微软市值的7%，但目前尚未反映在约21倍的远期市盈率之中——而这一估值水平与整体市场基本持平，远低于微软近年来的历史均值。AI叙事的根本分歧双方争议的核心，在于对AI与现有软件生态关系的根本性判断不同。Hohn持\"颠覆派\"立场：AI将催生全新的生产力入口，进而侵蚀微软Office数十年积累的用户壁垒。Ackman则持\"强化派\"立场：AI将以增量功能嵌入现有平台，微软凭借CEO Satya Nadella直接参与主导的Copilot深度整合，以及Azure向多模型架构的转型，将成为AI浪潮中最大的企业级受益者之一。对于微软今年4月放弃独家销售OpenAI模型权利一事——市场普遍将其解读为向OpenAI的让步——Ackman将其重新定性为\"有意向更开放的多模型架构转型\"，更有利于服务日益寻求多模型选择权的企业客户。他援引数据称，目前已有逾1万家企业客户在Azure 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AI一百多亿的单子暴涨20%，这可是一万多亿美金市值的公司，谷歌也出来说芯片收入后续大幅增长也是大客户open AI，open AI要保持收入每年翻两倍的速度才能维持，就是AI还要继续大突破","listText":"有意思的是，前几天博通财报本来没波动，也是因为接了open AI一百多亿的单子暴涨20%，这可是一万多亿美金市值的公司，谷歌也出来说芯片收入后续大幅增长也是大客户open AI，open AI要保持收入每年翻两倍的速度才能维持，就是AI还要继续大突破","text":"有意思的是，前几天博通财报本来没波动，也是因为接了open AI一百多亿的单子暴涨20%，这可是一万多亿美金市值的公司，谷歌也出来说芯片收入后续大幅增长也是大客户open AI，open AI要保持收入每年翻两倍的速度才能维持，就是AI还要继续大突破","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477829048172800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":475379654611352,"gmtCreate":1757062772300,"gmtModify":1757062774370,"author":{"id":"3450061884314599","authorId":"3450061884314599","name":"五撇须","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b54c88afdc73085ffe810fdd03c5b90a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450061884314599","authorIdStr":"3450061884314599"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"连续几次都是财报出来波澜不惊，都是发布会出来才大涨，说明了什么","listText":"连续几次都是财报出来波澜不惊，都是发布会出来才大涨，说明了什么","text":"连续几次都是财报出来波澜不惊，都是发布会出来才大涨，说明了什么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/475379654611352","repostId":"1123770804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123770804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1757026373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123770804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-05 06:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"博通Q3 AI芯片收入超预期增63%，神秘新客户下单百亿，料下财年AI前景“大幅”改善","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123770804","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"陈福阳称，博通正在与潜在客户合作开发AI加速器。陈福阳称，三季度博通的AI半导体营收同比增长63%至52亿美元，这也高于分析师预期的51.1亿美元。博通第二财季的AI芯片业务收入同比增长46%。陈福阳称，博通预计，四季度AI半导体营收增至62亿美元。博通2024财年的总营收将近516亿美元。博通2023年以610亿美元收购VMware，该业务现已成为其基础设施软件部门的核心，占前一财季销售额的44%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>第三财季<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>营收创同期新高、同比增22%；四财季营收指引同比增近24%强于预期，AI芯片收入料环比加速增19%至62亿美元、较分析师预期高6%以上。CEO称，上季度，一家AI加速器的潜在客户向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>发出生产订单、价值100亿美元，博通现在预计，2026财年AI收入前景较上季度预测大幅改善，从2026年起出货将很强劲。博通股价盘后涨近4%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">博通上个财季保持了两位数的收入劲增势头，比本已较高的华尔街预期水平更强劲，并预计本财季的人工智能（AI）芯片业务继续提速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">博通CEO陈福阳点评业绩称，博通第三财季营收创同期历史新高，得益于定制AI加速器、网络和VMware业务的持续强劲增长，并预计，由于客户的持续强劲投资，AI芯片本财季的营收将加速增长至62亿美元，实现连续11个季度增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业绩电话会上，陈福阳释放了定制AI芯片需求强劲的利好。陈福阳称，博通正在与潜在客户合作开发AI加速器。这意味着博通在开发<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>称霸的市场。而后他说，“上个季度，其中一家潜在客户向博通发出了生产订单”，未透露具体客户名称。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据陈福阳所说，上述未公开的第四位“神秘”客户给博通带来价值100亿美元的订单，他称因此该客户被定性为博通定制AI加速器XPU的合格客户。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">接着陈福阳说，博通“现在预计，2026财年的AI收入前景将较上个季度的预测大幅改善”，还说“从2026年开始，我们的出货量将非常强劲。” 评论认为，这些言论有助于缓解投资者对AI业务放缓的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报公布后，本周四收涨逾1.2%的博通盘后股价震荡，先曾跳涨约2%，后一度转跌超1%，业绩电话会期间摆脱跌势，盘后涨近4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至本周三收盘，博通股价过去一年几乎翻倍大涨，成为涨幅第三高的纳斯达克100指数成分股，市值同期增加约7300亿美元。但鉴于英伟达等AI芯片股最近发布财报后表现疲软，一些市场人士此前担心，即使博通的业绩亮眼，也可能面临“买消息、卖事实”的抛售风险。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c5ad8af9cc38812b1e3d99812d7276\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"567\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间9月4日周四，博通公布截至2025年8月3日的公司2025财年第三财季（下称“三季度”）财务数据，并提供第四财季（“四季度”）的业绩指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1）主要财务数据</strong>：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>营收</strong>：三季度营业收入159.5亿美元，同比增长22%，分析师预期158.4亿美元，公司指引158亿美元，前一季度同比增长20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>净利润</strong>：非GAAP口径下调整后三季度净利润为84.04亿美元，同比增长37.3%，前一季度同比增长44%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EBITDA</strong>：调整后三季度税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）为107.02亿美元，同比增长30.1%，分析师预期约105亿美元，利润率67.1%，前一季度同比增长34.6%、利润率66.7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EPS</strong>：调整后每股收益（EPS）三季度为1.69美元，同比增长36.3%，分析师预期1.66美元，前一季度同比增长43.6%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2）细分业务数据</strong>：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>半导体解决方案</strong>，包括ASIC在内的半导体解决方案业务收入为91.66亿美元，同比增长26%，占总营收的57%，分析师预期91亿美元，前一季度同比增长16.7%、占总营收的56%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>基础设施软件</strong>：包括VMware在内的基础设施软件业务收入为67.86亿美元，同比增长17%，占总营收的43%，前一季度同比增长24.8%、占总营收的44%。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace6ef26938dc019de7f1c36719c9908\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1439\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3）业绩指引</strong>：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>营收</strong>：四季度营收预计约为174亿美元，同比增长23.8%，分析师预期170.5亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EBITDA</strong>：四季度EBITDA利润率预计约67%，分析师预期66%。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_829186562\">营收创三季度最高纪录 AI芯片营收四季度料增至62亿美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，三季度博通的营收和利润端增长比华尔街预期的强劲。当季营收创公司史上第三财季最高纪录，同比增速由前一季的20%提升至22%，分析师预期增长约21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三季度博通的EPS同比增速由前一季的将近44%放缓至约36%，但还强于分析师预计不足34%的增速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">陈福阳称，三季度博通的AI半导体营收同比增长63%至52亿美元，这也高于分析师预期的51.1亿美元。而且增速高于前一季度。博通第二财季的AI芯片业务收入同比增长46%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业绩指引方面，博通预计四季度营收增长将进一步加快至将近24%，强于分析师预计的约21%增速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">陈福阳称，博通预计，四季度AI半导体营收增至62亿美元。这一指引较分析师预期的58.2亿美元高6.5%，相当于环比增长19%，环比增速也超过三季度的约18%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMMT\">Summit</a> Insights的分析师 Kinngai Chan评论称，博通的AI相关的半导体需求持续亮眼。三季度业绩增长主要得益于AI互联互通以及定制ASIC业务。</p><h2 id=\"id_2366803111\">ASIC在内半导体解决方案收入增26% </h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分业务看，三季度包括ASIC在内的半导体解决方案收入也提速，从前一季度的不到17%提高至26%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ASIC是专为特定领域或功能量身定制的集成电路。此前评论认为，去年博通之所以能让市值突破1万亿美元，是因为讲述了AI专用芯片ASIC的超大叙事，预计三年后ASIC与GPU至少平分天下，甚至取而代之。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">陈福阳去年12月预测，到2027年财年，市场的ASIC需求将达600亿至900亿美元。分析称，若这一预测准确，未来三年博通ASIC相关的AI业务有望实现每年翻倍增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析师预计，博通的定制芯片业务2026年可带来收入250亿至300亿美元，2027年有望超过400亿美元。那将占博通收入的一大半。博通2024财年的总营收将近516亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">博通2023年以610亿美元收购VMware，该业务现已成为其基础设施软件部门的核心，占前一财季销售额的44%。VMware业务的增长情况也是投资者关注的一个要点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三季度，包括VMware在内的基础设施软件业务收入增长有所放缓，同比增速由前一季的将近25%放缓至17%，在总营收中保持超过40%的比重。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>分析师最近指出，博通的非AI半导体业务已较峰值下降约40%，该业务占本财年预期销售额的27%，其复苏应能抵消AI业务带来的毛利率稀释效应。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1700700604709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>博通Q3 AI芯片收入超预期增63%，神秘新客户下单百亿，料下财年AI前景“大幅”改善</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n博通Q3 AI芯片收入超预期增63%，神秘新客户下单百亿，料下财年AI前景“大幅”改善\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-05 06:52 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754969><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>第三财季博通营收创同期新高、同比增22%；四财季营收指引同比增近24%强于预期，AI芯片收入料环比加速增19%至62亿美元、较分析师预期高6%以上。CEO称，上季度，一家AI加速器的潜在客户向博通发出生产订单、价值100亿美元，博通现在预计，2026财年AI收入前景较上季度预测大幅改善，从2026年起出货将很强劲。博通股价盘后涨近4%。博通上个财季保持了两位数的收入劲增势头，比本已较高的华尔街预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754969\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05ac5664b8d2d8af314c2fe1951c78e0","relate_stocks":{"IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMCWC346.EUR":"GUINNESS EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BVYPNV92.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) ACC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDGV0183.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) INC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4612":"AI芯片","L":"洛斯公司","BK4588":"碎股","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","AVGO":"博通","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","IE00BYV24P56.USD":"GUINNESS EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754969","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123770804","content_text":"第三财季博通营收创同期新高、同比增22%；四财季营收指引同比增近24%强于预期，AI芯片收入料环比加速增19%至62亿美元、较分析师预期高6%以上。CEO称，上季度，一家AI加速器的潜在客户向博通发出生产订单、价值100亿美元，博通现在预计，2026财年AI收入前景较上季度预测大幅改善，从2026年起出货将很强劲。博通股价盘后涨近4%。博通上个财季保持了两位数的收入劲增势头，比本已较高的华尔街预期水平更强劲，并预计本财季的人工智能（AI）芯片业务继续提速。博通CEO陈福阳点评业绩称，博通第三财季营收创同期历史新高，得益于定制AI加速器、网络和VMware业务的持续强劲增长，并预计，由于客户的持续强劲投资，AI芯片本财季的营收将加速增长至62亿美元，实现连续11个季度增长。业绩电话会上，陈福阳释放了定制AI芯片需求强劲的利好。陈福阳称，博通正在与潜在客户合作开发AI加速器。这意味着博通在开发英伟达称霸的市场。而后他说，“上个季度，其中一家潜在客户向博通发出了生产订单”，未透露具体客户名称。据陈福阳所说，上述未公开的第四位“神秘”客户给博通带来价值100亿美元的订单，他称因此该客户被定性为博通定制AI加速器XPU的合格客户。接着陈福阳说，博通“现在预计，2026财年的AI收入前景将较上个季度的预测大幅改善”，还说“从2026年开始，我们的出货量将非常强劲。” 评论认为，这些言论有助于缓解投资者对AI业务放缓的担忧。财报公布后，本周四收涨逾1.2%的博通盘后股价震荡，先曾跳涨约2%，后一度转跌超1%，业绩电话会期间摆脱跌势，盘后涨近4%。截至本周三收盘，博通股价过去一年几乎翻倍大涨，成为涨幅第三高的纳斯达克100指数成分股，市值同期增加约7300亿美元。但鉴于英伟达等AI芯片股最近发布财报后表现疲软，一些市场人士此前担心，即使博通的业绩亮眼，也可能面临“买消息、卖事实”的抛售风险。美东时间9月4日周四，博通公布截至2025年8月3日的公司2025财年第三财季（下称“三季度”）财务数据，并提供第四财季（“四季度”）的业绩指引。1）主要财务数据：营收：三季度营业收入159.5亿美元，同比增长22%，分析师预期158.4亿美元，公司指引158亿美元，前一季度同比增长20%。净利润：非GAAP口径下调整后三季度净利润为84.04亿美元，同比增长37.3%，前一季度同比增长44%。EBITDA：调整后三季度税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）为107.02亿美元，同比增长30.1%，分析师预期约105亿美元，利润率67.1%，前一季度同比增长34.6%、利润率66.7%。EPS：调整后每股收益（EPS）三季度为1.69美元，同比增长36.3%，分析师预期1.66美元，前一季度同比增长43.6%。2）细分业务数据：半导体解决方案，包括ASIC在内的半导体解决方案业务收入为91.66亿美元，同比增长26%，占总营收的57%，分析师预期91亿美元，前一季度同比增长16.7%、占总营收的56%。基础设施软件：包括VMware在内的基础设施软件业务收入为67.86亿美元，同比增长17%，占总营收的43%，前一季度同比增长24.8%、占总营收的44%。3）业绩指引：营收：四季度营收预计约为174亿美元，同比增长23.8%，分析师预期170.5亿美元。EBITDA：四季度EBITDA利润率预计约67%，分析师预期66%。营收创三季度最高纪录 AI芯片营收四季度料增至62亿美元财报显示，三季度博通的营收和利润端增长比华尔街预期的强劲。当季营收创公司史上第三财季最高纪录，同比增速由前一季的20%提升至22%，分析师预期增长约21%。三季度博通的EPS同比增速由前一季的将近44%放缓至约36%，但还强于分析师预计不足34%的增速。陈福阳称，三季度博通的AI半导体营收同比增长63%至52亿美元，这也高于分析师预期的51.1亿美元。而且增速高于前一季度。博通第二财季的AI芯片业务收入同比增长46%。业绩指引方面，博通预计四季度营收增长将进一步加快至将近24%，强于分析师预计的约21%增速。陈福阳称，博通预计，四季度AI半导体营收增至62亿美元。这一指引较分析师预期的58.2亿美元高6.5%，相当于环比增长19%，环比增速也超过三季度的约18%。Summit Insights的分析师 Kinngai Chan评论称，博通的AI相关的半导体需求持续亮眼。三季度业绩增长主要得益于AI互联互通以及定制ASIC业务。ASIC在内半导体解决方案收入增26% 分业务看，三季度包括ASIC在内的半导体解决方案收入也提速，从前一季度的不到17%提高至26%。ASIC是专为特定领域或功能量身定制的集成电路。此前评论认为，去年博通之所以能让市值突破1万亿美元，是因为讲述了AI专用芯片ASIC的超大叙事，预计三年后ASIC与GPU至少平分天下，甚至取而代之。陈福阳去年12月预测，到2027年财年，市场的ASIC需求将达600亿至900亿美元。分析称，若这一预测准确，未来三年博通ASIC相关的AI业务有望实现每年翻倍增长。分析师预计，博通的定制芯片业务2026年可带来收入250亿至300亿美元，2027年有望超过400亿美元。那将占博通收入的一大半。博通2024财年的总营收将近516亿美元。博通2023年以610亿美元收购VMware，该业务现已成为其基础设施软件部门的核心，占前一财季销售额的44%。VMware业务的增长情况也是投资者关注的一个要点。三季度，包括VMware在内的基础设施软件业务收入增长有所放缓，同比增速由前一季的将近25%放缓至17%，在总营收中保持超过40%的比重。花旗分析师最近指出，博通的非AI半导体业务已较峰值下降约40%，该业务占本财年预期销售额的27%，其复苏应能抵消AI业务带来的毛利率稀释效应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGO":1,"L":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464644473934280,"gmtCreate":1754464153971,"gmtModify":1754464997218,"author":{"id":"3450061884314599","authorId":"3450061884314599","name":"五撇须","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b54c88afdc73085ffe810fdd03c5b90a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450061884314599","authorIdStr":"3450061884314599"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"使劲吹吧，就是一家寄生虫公司，靠着跟美国政府关系好生存的，CEO高位一直套现，当年帮着政府找到本拉登一直捞钱到现在，有政府背书还不好赚","listText":"使劲吹吧，就是一家寄生虫公司，靠着跟美国政府关系好生存的，CEO高位一直套现，当年帮着政府找到本拉登一直捞钱到现在，有政府背书还不好赚","text":"使劲吹吧，就是一家寄生虫公司，靠着跟美国政府关系好生存的，CEO高位一直套现，当年帮着政府找到本拉登一直捞钱到现在，有政府背书还不好赚","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464644473934280","repostId":"1195010424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195010424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1754452048,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195010424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-06 11:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Palantir 凭什么成为 AI 商业化第一股？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195010424","media":"有新Newin","summary":"AI 核心引擎的崛起。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在 2025 年第二季度财报中， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> 交出了一份几乎所有 SaaS 从业者都梦寐以求的成绩单：<strong>美国商业业务收入同比增长 93%、总收入突破 10 亿美元、调整后经营利润率 46%、自由现金流利润率 57%、Rule of 40 指数高达 94%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这家公司也因此被称为“<strong>AI 商业化第一股</strong>”。这个称号并非源自其讲 AI 最早、融资最多，而是因为 Palantir 是目前<strong>唯一一家实现“高增速、高利润率、高现金流”三重闭环</strong>的 AI 公司——它不仅完成了从模型到产品、从产品到结构、从结构到利润的全流程打通，更构建出了一整套可复制、可放大的组织增长逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">二季度 Palantir 首次突破 10 亿美元季度收入，同比增长 48%，美国市场收入增长更是达到 68%。尤其值得注意的是，美国商业业务收入同比大涨 93%，在整个收入中的占比由去年同期的 23% 上升至 31%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">政府业务亦增长 53%，虽然增速不及商业板块，但单季度仍录得 4.26 亿美元收入。这一对比清晰表明：<strong>Palantir 的增长重心已从以往以政府客户为主，逐渐转向商业领域，尤其是面向大企业的 AI 落地服务。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>拉动 Palantir 增长的，不是传统的软件销售模式，而是一套围绕 AI 产品落地打造的全新价值链体系。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以客户数增长为例，截至二季度末， Palantir 总客户数同比增长 43%，达到 849 家；其中美国商业客户数为 485 家，同比增长 64%。这意味着， Palantir 不仅在“大客户深耕”上持续突破，也在“中型客户渗透”层面扩大了市场根基。</p><h3 id=\"id_1996231496\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">▍AI 核心引擎的崛起</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从营收结构拆解来看， Palantir 录得历史最高的 TCV 为 23 亿美元，同比增长 140%；其中商业 TCV 为 11 亿美元，同比增长 185%，美国商业 TCV 更是达 8.43 亿美元，同比增长高达 222%。<strong>这套增长曲线背后，是 AI 真正走入企业底层流程的信号。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以 Citibank 和 Fannie Mae 为例，过去需要数天甚至数月完成的 KYC 审查或欺诈识别，现在可在数秒内完成；Lear Corporation 在过去 2.5 年内，通过 Foundry 与 AIP（Artificial Intelligence Platform）支持了超 1.1 万名员工的 175 个用例，覆盖从制造线动态平衡到行政流程自动化等多个场景；Nebraska Medicine 总裁则表示，医院的出院休息区使用率提升了 2100%，“我们甚至用 Palantir 单位时间来衡量价值。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些案例不只是功能落地，更是客户自身结构和效率的“第二次重构”。这也意味着， Palantir 在销售策略上不再依赖庞大的直销团队，而是靠产品效果和客户网络的口碑增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CEO Alexander Karp 明确表示：“<strong>我们没有兴趣建立一个靠请客吃饭、卖无效软件的销售体系。我们所有的价值都由产品和部署工程师团队驱动</strong>。”美国企业客户的转化，往往从一句“你得看看他们怎么做”开始。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Palantir 所定义的“AI 落地”，并非部署一个 LLM，而是以 Ontology 为核心的系统性理解力。CRO Ryan Taylor 指出：“<strong>LLM 是割裂的智能，Ontology 才是真实理解的逻辑。没有 Palantir，LLM 无法真正工作在现实世界中。</strong>”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正是基于这一逻辑， Palantir 在 AI 迭代中选择了极其强硬的立场 —— 所有的 AI 项目都必须以 Ontology 为前提，才能形成规模化、结构化落地的路径。在产品层面，这种理解力通过 Foundry 与 AIP 形成具体体现，而在组织层面，则被嵌入到每一个与客户对接的工程师工作中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在军工和政府系统中，这一优势同样显著。Palantir 在上季度获得 Space Force 的 2.18 亿美元合同，用于构建空天一体作战系统；Maven Smart System 项目合同上限提升 7.95 亿美元；与美国陆军签订了长达 10 年、价值最高可达 100 亿美元的大合同，整合 75 项原有合同。<strong>这些超长周期的深度合作，是 Palantir 把 AI 工具变成系统平台、再变成作战单位的核心体现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CEO Alexander Karp 毫不掩饰对 Palantir 当下地位的判断：“这是一家没有多余层级、没有寄生组织、没有无效销售的 Palantir ，所有的组件都在创造价值。”他反复强调，<strong>Palantir 是唯一一家在产品、组织、文化和政治立场上保持一致性的 AI 企业。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> AI 对一线劳工的赋能，也是这家 Palantir 战略中的另一条明线。 Palantir 正在通过 AI FDE（Forward Deployed Engineer）体系推进产品在工厂、医院、造船厂等场景的部署；而在产品端，诸如 Warp Speed 工业操作系统，MRP 产线调度模块等，都基于 AIP 打造，并在多个国防工业基地投入使用。一位客户称：“原本需要一天的产线调度，现在只需一小时。”</p><h3 id=\"id_403452017\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">▍赢在结构而非规模的组织模型</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于 Palantir 的增长，外界可能首先看到的是数字——同比超 90% 的美国商业增长、突破 10 亿美元的季度收入、历史最高的 TCV 记录。但真正支撑这些爆发性业绩的，是一套与多数软件 Palantir 完全不同的组织模型与文化架构。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Palantir 并不是靠庞大的销售体系成长起来的，而是靠产品效果与部署方式不断积累用户信任；也不是靠遵循软件业传统经验建立规模，而是从一开始就选择了“极不主流”的路径，彻底围绕价值来组织资源。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个典型例子是销售方式。CEO Alexander Karp 明确表示，Palantir 的销售并非靠 1 万人的大团队，不是靠每季度飞去见 CIO、请客户吃饭、搞内部推动链条这种“状态晚宴式”销售。他形容传统软件销售是“售出一个基本没用但一旦用上就甩不掉的工具”，然后组织围绕这个工具重新编排流程，而 Palantir 坚决反对这种思路。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相反，Palantir 采取的是以产品工程师为前线、以实际效果为信任基础的“价值导向销售”。<strong>Palantir 最大的销售杠杆来自老客户的推荐，尤其是在美国企业内部，人才流动频繁，一位曾经在某企业引入 Foundry 的用户，到了另一家 Palantir 后第一件事就是“请他们来”。这是“产品组织型企业”的终极形态：销售是由产品效果自然延展出来的网络结构，而不是人为堆砌的销售漏斗。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一模型带来的直接效果是进入门槛的快速提升。客户从第一天开始就会部署完整的 Ontology 模型与 AIP 架构，不再是慢慢试错式采购，而是围绕价值目标快速集成。这种变化也体现在客户反馈中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CRO Ryan Taylor 表示，现在越来越多客户在项目初始阶段就主动提问：“我们怎么把这个部署到整个企业？”而不是以往那种“先做一个 POC、看看能不能工作”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Alexander Karp 将这种价值传递机制总结为：“<strong>我们是站在自己单元经济模型的下游，把这个模型分享给客户。</strong>”也就是说，Palantir 自身是一个拥有极强单位经济收益率（如 94 的 Rule of 40）的组织，它通过产品和组织方式将这种收益能力“外溢”给客户。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Palantir 至今仍然：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拥有极小的销售团队</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">维持极低的管理层级</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拥有最异质性、最有技术判断力的人才结构</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">采用以“部署工程师”为核心的协作方式</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拥有完整自主的产品栈，从 Foundry 到 Ontology 到 AIP</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Karp 指出， Palantir 很多最关键的商业突破都来自美国，并称当前是“美国式工业与 AI 技术大爆发”的窗口期，“我们拥有在欧洲不具备的那种组织灵活性与商业渗透路径”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，Palantir 正积极向蓝领工人传递 AI 的赋能机制。他提出一个特别值得关注的判断：在 AI 浪潮中，很多未受高等教育的用户使用 Palantir 工具所创造的价值，甚至超过了大学毕业生。这并非情绪性语言，而是一种通过产品实践验证得出的系统性认知。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还提到 Palantir 正在制定“劳工合作”计划，打算与美国的工会组织合作，推动蓝领用户获得更多 AI 工具主导权与使用收益。这也是 Palantir 对“AI 应该成为人的代理能力增强器”理念的具象实践。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在这一基础上，他再次强调“单位经济模型”的重要性：“我们能让客户获得的并不仅是功能，更是和我们一样的单位经济模型结构，这种结构一旦成立，客户在行业内也能获得类似我们今天展示的 93%、94%、68% 的增长与利润效率。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一思路也反映在客户生命周期中。Ryan Taylor 补充称， Palantir 现在看到的不是客户慢慢启动、然后以线性方式扩张，而是“一开始就快速部署，然后在极短时间内完成组织范围内的推广”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Karp 也提到， Palantir 并不排斥增加销售团队，但前提始终是“<strong>以产品为核的组织逻辑</strong>”。他补充说：“我们没有兴趣建立一个靠口才和误导签下大单、却没有实际交付价值的销售团队。相反，我们会持续建立一种结构，让客户在信任基础上，把组织重构交给我们。”正如他所说，“<strong>这是结构带来的信任，而不是规模带来的强迫。</strong>”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>对于人才，Karp 抛出了一个极具穿透力的“去学历化”判断。他反复强调，在 Palantir ，出身、背景、学校、家庭都不再是评价人才的标准，唯一的 credential 是在 Palantir 证明过的价值。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_4290587937\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">▍现金流、利润率与增长三重奏</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Palantir 这一季度的财报不止在收入端给出了亮眼答卷，更在利润与现金流方面实现突破，验证其 AI 商业化模式不仅“能做大”，更“能赚钱”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CFO David Glazer 在财报发布后的陈述，将这套财务表现拆解得非常细致，也印证了 CEO Karp 所强调的“单位经济模型”的真正含义：<strong>当增长率、利润率和现金流三者同时进入快车道时，才意味着企业真正跨入了“AI 结构化红利”的核心地带。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先从增长指标来看，Q2 总收入为 10.04 亿美元，同比增长 48%，不仅高于市场预期，也较 Q1 增长了 14%。与去年同期相比， Palantir 单季增速提高 21 个百分点，表明增长曲线正逐季陡峭化。美国市场则继续拉动全球增长，Q2 实现收入 7.33 亿美元，同比增长 68%、环比增长 17%。<strong>这一增速与全球大模型落地节奏高度一致，且表明 Palantir 已从 AI 基建转向 AI 运营系统角色，成为客户业务中不可或缺的一环。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在利润率方面，Palantir 表现同样抢眼。调整后营业利润为 4.64 亿美元，经营利润率达 46%，超出上季度给出的指引上限近 300 个基点。这一结果也带动 Rule of 40 得分由 Q1 的 83% 升至 Q2 的 94%，创下历史最高纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果进一步看净利润层面，GAAP 净利润为 3.27 亿美元，净利润率为 33%；调整后每股收益为 0.16 美元，高于市场预期。值得一提的是， Palantir 仍在以高比例进行股权激励，但即便如此，其 GAAP 净利润表现已具备可持续性，这也是 Palantir 成为少数真正实现 AI 商业化盈利的 Palantir 之一的重要标志。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现金流方面，Palantir 本季度运营性现金流为 5.39 亿美元，调整后自由现金流达到 5.69 亿美元，自由现金流率高达 57%。在全球 SaaS 企业中，这样的现金回收能力极为罕见，也让 Palantir 拥有充足的战略灵活性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在客户结构方面， Palantir 客户总数达到 849 个，同比增长 43%，环比增长 10%。其中，美国商业客户数增长 64%，说明 AI 应用的落地正加速走出技术人员圈层，逐步成为运营、管理甚至战略层的核心工具。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，Palantir 的大客户价值持续增长。前 20 大客户在过去 12 个月内贡献的平均收入达到 7500 万美元，同比增长 30%。这不仅体现出客户粘性，也说明产品正以平台化的形态深入核心系统，成为企业数字基建的一部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外， Palantir 公布的部分运营指标也值得关注：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">净收入留存率为 128%，较上季度提升 400 个基点；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">总剩余合同价值达到 71 亿美元，同比增长 65%、环比增长 20%；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">剩余履约义务（RPO）为 24 亿美元，同比增长 77%、环比增长 27%；</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些数据表明：<strong>不仅现有客户付费意愿增强，且新增客户已进入续约与扩单周期，客户生命周期整体延长。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在 AI Palantir 普遍“高估值但盈利遥遥无期”的背景下，Palantir 正走出一条极为罕见的路径：它不仅能做到超 45% 的收入增速，同时实现超 45% 的利润率和超 50% 的自由现金流率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这三项指标的协同突破，构成了一套真实可运行的“AI 营运系统”模板，也为其高估值与资本市场认可提供了坚实的底层支撑。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1692098431120","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir 凭什么成为 AI 商业化第一股？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir 凭什么成为 AI 商业化第一股？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-06 11:47 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/F08wzOaCcOvy0MPJyDEQCg><strong>有新Newin</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在 2025 年第二季度财报中， Palantir Technologies Inc. 交出了一份几乎所有 SaaS 从业者都梦寐以求的成绩单：美国商业业务收入同比增长 93%、总收入突破 10 亿美元、调整后经营利润率 46%、自由现金流利润率 57%、Rule of 40 指数高达 94%。这家公司也因此被称为“AI 商业化第一股”。这个称号并非源自其讲 AI 最早、融资最多，而是因为 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/F08wzOaCcOvy0MPJyDEQCg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc0af02a59494f34c3937bf5981ba427","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/F08wzOaCcOvy0MPJyDEQCg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195010424","content_text":"在 2025 年第二季度财报中， Palantir Technologies Inc. 交出了一份几乎所有 SaaS 从业者都梦寐以求的成绩单：美国商业业务收入同比增长 93%、总收入突破 10 亿美元、调整后经营利润率 46%、自由现金流利润率 57%、Rule of 40 指数高达 94%。这家公司也因此被称为“AI 商业化第一股”。这个称号并非源自其讲 AI 最早、融资最多，而是因为 Palantir 是目前唯一一家实现“高增速、高利润率、高现金流”三重闭环的 AI 公司——它不仅完成了从模型到产品、从产品到结构、从结构到利润的全流程打通，更构建出了一整套可复制、可放大的组织增长逻辑。二季度 Palantir 首次突破 10 亿美元季度收入，同比增长 48%，美国市场收入增长更是达到 68%。尤其值得注意的是，美国商业业务收入同比大涨 93%，在整个收入中的占比由去年同期的 23% 上升至 31%。政府业务亦增长 53%，虽然增速不及商业板块，但单季度仍录得 4.26 亿美元收入。这一对比清晰表明：Palantir 的增长重心已从以往以政府客户为主，逐渐转向商业领域，尤其是面向大企业的 AI 落地服务。拉动 Palantir 增长的，不是传统的软件销售模式，而是一套围绕 AI 产品落地打造的全新价值链体系。以客户数增长为例，截至二季度末， Palantir 总客户数同比增长 43%，达到 849 家；其中美国商业客户数为 485 家，同比增长 64%。这意味着， Palantir 不仅在“大客户深耕”上持续突破，也在“中型客户渗透”层面扩大了市场根基。▍AI 核心引擎的崛起从营收结构拆解来看， Palantir 录得历史最高的 TCV 为 23 亿美元，同比增长 140%；其中商业 TCV 为 11 亿美元，同比增长 185%，美国商业 TCV 更是达 8.43 亿美元，同比增长高达 222%。这套增长曲线背后，是 AI 真正走入企业底层流程的信号。以 Citibank 和 Fannie Mae 为例，过去需要数天甚至数月完成的 KYC 审查或欺诈识别，现在可在数秒内完成；Lear Corporation 在过去 2.5 年内，通过 Foundry 与 AIP（Artificial Intelligence Platform）支持了超 1.1 万名员工的 175 个用例，覆盖从制造线动态平衡到行政流程自动化等多个场景；Nebraska Medicine 总裁则表示，医院的出院休息区使用率提升了 2100%，“我们甚至用 Palantir 单位时间来衡量价值。”这些案例不只是功能落地，更是客户自身结构和效率的“第二次重构”。这也意味着， Palantir 在销售策略上不再依赖庞大的直销团队，而是靠产品效果和客户网络的口碑增长。CEO Alexander Karp 明确表示：“我们没有兴趣建立一个靠请客吃饭、卖无效软件的销售体系。我们所有的价值都由产品和部署工程师团队驱动。”美国企业客户的转化，往往从一句“你得看看他们怎么做”开始。Palantir 所定义的“AI 落地”，并非部署一个 LLM，而是以 Ontology 为核心的系统性理解力。CRO Ryan Taylor 指出：“LLM 是割裂的智能，Ontology 才是真实理解的逻辑。没有 Palantir，LLM 无法真正工作在现实世界中。”正是基于这一逻辑， Palantir 在 AI 迭代中选择了极其强硬的立场 —— 所有的 AI 项目都必须以 Ontology 为前提，才能形成规模化、结构化落地的路径。在产品层面，这种理解力通过 Foundry 与 AIP 形成具体体现，而在组织层面，则被嵌入到每一个与客户对接的工程师工作中。在军工和政府系统中，这一优势同样显著。Palantir 在上季度获得 Space Force 的 2.18 亿美元合同，用于构建空天一体作战系统；Maven Smart System 项目合同上限提升 7.95 亿美元；与美国陆军签订了长达 10 年、价值最高可达 100 亿美元的大合同，整合 75 项原有合同。这些超长周期的深度合作，是 Palantir 把 AI 工具变成系统平台、再变成作战单位的核心体现。CEO Alexander Karp 毫不掩饰对 Palantir 当下地位的判断：“这是一家没有多余层级、没有寄生组织、没有无效销售的 Palantir ，所有的组件都在创造价值。”他反复强调，Palantir 是唯一一家在产品、组织、文化和政治立场上保持一致性的 AI 企业。 AI 对一线劳工的赋能，也是这家 Palantir 战略中的另一条明线。 Palantir 正在通过 AI FDE（Forward Deployed Engineer）体系推进产品在工厂、医院、造船厂等场景的部署；而在产品端，诸如 Warp Speed 工业操作系统，MRP 产线调度模块等，都基于 AIP 打造，并在多个国防工业基地投入使用。一位客户称：“原本需要一天的产线调度，现在只需一小时。”▍赢在结构而非规模的组织模型对于 Palantir 的增长，外界可能首先看到的是数字——同比超 90% 的美国商业增长、突破 10 亿美元的季度收入、历史最高的 TCV 记录。但真正支撑这些爆发性业绩的，是一套与多数软件 Palantir 完全不同的组织模型与文化架构。Palantir 并不是靠庞大的销售体系成长起来的，而是靠产品效果与部署方式不断积累用户信任；也不是靠遵循软件业传统经验建立规模，而是从一开始就选择了“极不主流”的路径，彻底围绕价值来组织资源。一个典型例子是销售方式。CEO Alexander Karp 明确表示，Palantir 的销售并非靠 1 万人的大团队，不是靠每季度飞去见 CIO、请客户吃饭、搞内部推动链条这种“状态晚宴式”销售。他形容传统软件销售是“售出一个基本没用但一旦用上就甩不掉的工具”，然后组织围绕这个工具重新编排流程，而 Palantir 坚决反对这种思路。相反，Palantir 采取的是以产品工程师为前线、以实际效果为信任基础的“价值导向销售”。Palantir 最大的销售杠杆来自老客户的推荐，尤其是在美国企业内部，人才流动频繁，一位曾经在某企业引入 Foundry 的用户，到了另一家 Palantir 后第一件事就是“请他们来”。这是“产品组织型企业”的终极形态：销售是由产品效果自然延展出来的网络结构，而不是人为堆砌的销售漏斗。这一模型带来的直接效果是进入门槛的快速提升。客户从第一天开始就会部署完整的 Ontology 模型与 AIP 架构，不再是慢慢试错式采购，而是围绕价值目标快速集成。这种变化也体现在客户反馈中。CRO Ryan Taylor 表示，现在越来越多客户在项目初始阶段就主动提问：“我们怎么把这个部署到整个企业？”而不是以往那种“先做一个 POC、看看能不能工作”。Alexander Karp 将这种价值传递机制总结为：“我们是站在自己单元经济模型的下游，把这个模型分享给客户。”也就是说，Palantir 自身是一个拥有极强单位经济收益率（如 94 的 Rule of 40）的组织，它通过产品和组织方式将这种收益能力“外溢”给客户。Palantir 至今仍然：拥有极小的销售团队维持极低的管理层级拥有最异质性、最有技术判断力的人才结构采用以“部署工程师”为核心的协作方式拥有完整自主的产品栈，从 Foundry 到 Ontology 到 AIPKarp 指出， Palantir 很多最关键的商业突破都来自美国，并称当前是“美国式工业与 AI 技术大爆发”的窗口期，“我们拥有在欧洲不具备的那种组织灵活性与商业渗透路径”。同时，Palantir 正积极向蓝领工人传递 AI 的赋能机制。他提出一个特别值得关注的判断：在 AI 浪潮中，很多未受高等教育的用户使用 Palantir 工具所创造的价值，甚至超过了大学毕业生。这并非情绪性语言，而是一种通过产品实践验证得出的系统性认知。他还提到 Palantir 正在制定“劳工合作”计划，打算与美国的工会组织合作，推动蓝领用户获得更多 AI 工具主导权与使用收益。这也是 Palantir 对“AI 应该成为人的代理能力增强器”理念的具象实践。在这一基础上，他再次强调“单位经济模型”的重要性：“我们能让客户获得的并不仅是功能，更是和我们一样的单位经济模型结构，这种结构一旦成立，客户在行业内也能获得类似我们今天展示的 93%、94%、68% 的增长与利润效率。”这一思路也反映在客户生命周期中。Ryan Taylor 补充称， Palantir 现在看到的不是客户慢慢启动、然后以线性方式扩张，而是“一开始就快速部署，然后在极短时间内完成组织范围内的推广”。Karp 也提到， Palantir 并不排斥增加销售团队，但前提始终是“以产品为核的组织逻辑”。他补充说：“我们没有兴趣建立一个靠口才和误导签下大单、却没有实际交付价值的销售团队。相反，我们会持续建立一种结构，让客户在信任基础上，把组织重构交给我们。”正如他所说，“这是结构带来的信任，而不是规模带来的强迫。”对于人才，Karp 抛出了一个极具穿透力的“去学历化”判断。他反复强调，在 Palantir ，出身、背景、学校、家庭都不再是评价人才的标准，唯一的 credential 是在 Palantir 证明过的价值。▍现金流、利润率与增长三重奏Palantir 这一季度的财报不止在收入端给出了亮眼答卷，更在利润与现金流方面实现突破，验证其 AI 商业化模式不仅“能做大”，更“能赚钱”。CFO David Glazer 在财报发布后的陈述，将这套财务表现拆解得非常细致，也印证了 CEO Karp 所强调的“单位经济模型”的真正含义：当增长率、利润率和现金流三者同时进入快车道时，才意味着企业真正跨入了“AI 结构化红利”的核心地带。首先从增长指标来看，Q2 总收入为 10.04 亿美元，同比增长 48%，不仅高于市场预期，也较 Q1 增长了 14%。与去年同期相比， Palantir 单季增速提高 21 个百分点，表明增长曲线正逐季陡峭化。美国市场则继续拉动全球增长，Q2 实现收入 7.33 亿美元，同比增长 68%、环比增长 17%。这一增速与全球大模型落地节奏高度一致，且表明 Palantir 已从 AI 基建转向 AI 运营系统角色，成为客户业务中不可或缺的一环。在利润率方面，Palantir 表现同样抢眼。调整后营业利润为 4.64 亿美元，经营利润率达 46%，超出上季度给出的指引上限近 300 个基点。这一结果也带动 Rule of 40 得分由 Q1 的 83% 升至 Q2 的 94%，创下历史最高纪录。如果进一步看净利润层面，GAAP 净利润为 3.27 亿美元，净利润率为 33%；调整后每股收益为 0.16 美元，高于市场预期。值得一提的是， Palantir 仍在以高比例进行股权激励，但即便如此，其 GAAP 净利润表现已具备可持续性，这也是 Palantir 成为少数真正实现 AI 商业化盈利的 Palantir 之一的重要标志。现金流方面，Palantir 本季度运营性现金流为 5.39 亿美元，调整后自由现金流达到 5.69 亿美元，自由现金流率高达 57%。在全球 SaaS 企业中，这样的现金回收能力极为罕见，也让 Palantir 拥有充足的战略灵活性。在客户结构方面， Palantir 客户总数达到 849 个，同比增长 43%，环比增长 10%。其中，美国商业客户数增长 64%，说明 AI 应用的落地正加速走出技术人员圈层，逐步成为运营、管理甚至战略层的核心工具。与此同时，Palantir 的大客户价值持续增长。前 20 大客户在过去 12 个月内贡献的平均收入达到 7500 万美元，同比增长 30%。这不仅体现出客户粘性，也说明产品正以平台化的形态深入核心系统，成为企业数字基建的一部分。此外， Palantir 公布的部分运营指标也值得关注：净收入留存率为 128%，较上季度提升 400 个基点；总剩余合同价值达到 71 亿美元，同比增长 65%、环比增长 20%；剩余履约义务（RPO）为 24 亿美元，同比增长 77%、环比增长 27%；这些数据表明：不仅现有客户付费意愿增强，且新增客户已进入续约与扩单周期，客户生命周期整体延长。在 AI Palantir 普遍“高估值但盈利遥遥无期”的背景下，Palantir 正走出一条极为罕见的路径：它不仅能做到超 45% 的收入增速，同时实现超 45% 的利润率和超 50% 的自由现金流率。这三项指标的协同突破，构成了一套真实可运行的“AI 营运系统”模板，也为其高估值与资本市场认可提供了坚实的底层支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544518779726666","authorId":"3544518779726666","name":"里二外三","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544518779726666","authorIdStr":"3544518779726666"},"content":"对的，就像比特币一样，当年就是骗子，一直骗到现在，从几毛骗到现在十二万一枚，太厉害了。","text":"对的，就像比特币一样，当年就是骗子，一直骗到现在，从几毛骗到现在十二万一枚，太厉害了。","html":"对的，就像比特币一样，当年就是骗子，一直骗到现在，从几毛骗到现在十二万一枚，太厉害了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405704990982456,"gmtCreate":1740076042342,"gmtModify":1740076045347,"author":{"id":"3450061884314599","authorId":"3450061884314599","name":"五撇须","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b54c88afdc73085ffe810fdd03c5b90a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450061884314599","authorIdStr":"3450061884314599"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2503(NQmain)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 三只市值最大的是涨的，大盘掉了一个点，护盘味道也太隆了，纳指只要一掉，几大科技股巨头就赶紧拉出一两只有个小利好来护盘，问题是这么高位了能护到几时","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2503(NQmain)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 三只市值最大的是涨的，大盘掉了一个点，护盘味道也太隆了，纳指只要一掉，几大科技股巨头就赶紧拉出一两只有个小利好来护盘，问题是这么高位了能护到几时","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2503(NQmain)$ 三只市值最大的是涨的，大盘掉了一个点，护盘味道也太隆了，纳指只要一掉，几大科技股巨头就赶紧拉出一两只有个小利好来护盘，问题是这么高位了能护到几时","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c660cec431a9723a9459dd521cb39d2","width":"1152","height":"2376"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405704990982456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":403471341146512,"gmtCreate":1739528673915,"gmtModify":1739528675023,"author":{"id":"3450061884314599","authorId":"3450061884314599","name":"五撇须","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b54c88afdc73085ffe810fdd03c5b90a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450061884314599","authorIdStr":"3450061884314599"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2504(GCmain)$ </a> 避你**险，所有的风险资产都飞上天了，你避个逼险","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 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亚马逊微软再拉新高，永远的纳指啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321057994547264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}