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2022-02-20

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What Warren Buffett Can Do to Ensure a Brighter Future for Berkshire Hathaway<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以做些什么来确保伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司更光明的未来</blockquote>

It may be time for some changes at Berkshire Hathaway as CEO Warren Buffett starts to look ahead to

What Warren Buffett Can Do to Ensure a Brighter Future for Berkshire Hathaway<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以做些什么来确保伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司更光明的未来</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":638207419,"tweetId":"638207419","gmtCreate":1645318259897,"gmtModify":1645318260630,"author":{"id":3574411684600657,"idStr":"3574411684600657","authorId":3574411684600657,"authorIdStr":"3574411684600657","name":"AJ1977","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa526fc2ee7ebbfedc30edc637c7981f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":62,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Go go goo</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Go go goo</body></html>","text":"Go go goo","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638207419","repostId":1111287804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111287804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645240974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111287804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-19 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Warren Buffett Can Do to Ensure a Brighter Future for Berkshire Hathaway<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以做些什么来确保伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司更光明的未来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111287804","media":"Barrons","summary":"It may be time for some changes at Berkshire Hathaway as CEO Warren Buffett starts to look ahead to ","content":"<html><head></head><body>It may be time for some changes at Berkshire Hathaway as CEO Warren Buffett starts to look ahead to his 92nd birthday later this year.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>随着首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特开始展望今年晚些时候的92岁生日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司可能是时候做出一些改变了。</body></html></blockquote>Berkshire investors are now awaiting Buffett’s annual shareholder letter, expected on Feb. 26, for insights into the company, financial markets, and American business. There is much more he could address.<blockquote>伯克希尔投资者目前正在等待巴菲特预计于2月26日发表的年度股东信，以深入了解公司、金融市场和美国业务。他还有更多可以解决的问题。</blockquote>Over 57 years, Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) into a company with a $700 billion market value—sixth in the U.S. market—and $27 billion of annual operating earnings. Yet our view has been that he now needs to do more to prepare for the transition to a new generation of leadership at Berkshire.<blockquote>57年来，巴菲特将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（股票代码：BRK.A和BRK.B）打造成一家市值7000亿美元（在美国市场排名第六）、年营业收入270亿美元的公司。然而，我们的观点是，他现在需要做更多的工作，为伯克希尔向新一代领导层的过渡做好准备。</blockquote>Stepping down as CEO while remaining chairman would allow his heir apparent, Greg Abel, to demonstrate that he can handle the tough job of running a giant conglomerate.<blockquote>辞去首席执行官一职，同时继续担任董事长，这将使他的法定继承人格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）能够证明他能够胜任经营一家大型企业集团的艰巨工作。</blockquote>At a time when investors favor more-focused businesses, there will be pressure almost immediately to break up the company, post-Buffett. Keeping Berkshire together, Buffett has said, provides tax and other benefits. <blockquote>在投资者青睐更专注的业务之际，在巴菲特之后，几乎立即就会面临拆分公司的压力。巴菲特表示，将伯克希尔保持在一起可以提供税收和其他好处。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc0a1951c440e2a4ddf290dce6de826\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"634\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>The past decade has been one of missed opportunities. The only major acquisition—a $32 billion deal for aircraft-parts maker Precision Castparts in 2016—has been a loser. Buffett has had two investment coups, a $31 billion investment in Apple (AAPL) that is up fivefold and an investment in Bank of America (BAC) now worth about $50 billion, up threefold.<blockquote>过去十年是错失良机的十年。唯一的重大收购——2016年以320亿美元收购飞机零部件制造商Precision Castparts的交易——失败了。巴菲特有过两次投资妙招，对苹果(AAPL)的投资310亿美元，增长了五倍；对美银(BAC)的投资现在价值约500亿美元，增长了三倍。</blockquote>In recent years, however, he has turned very cautious as an investor. He failed to capitalize on the pandemic-driven selloff in stocks, ignoring his own maxim to “befearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”<blockquote>然而，近年来，作为投资者，他变得非常谨慎。他未能利用大流行引发的股市抛售，忽视了自己的格言“当别人贪婪时要恐惧，只有当别人恐惧时才贪婪”。</blockquote>Since March 2020, Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks, including a badly timed near-complete liquidation of an 8% holding in Wells Fargo (WFC) at what we estimate was half of Wells Fargo’s current price of $56—leaving $10 billion on the table. The only major purchase, an $8 billion buy of Verizon Communications (VZ), is down 10% from Berkshire’s cost.<blockquote>自2020年3月以来，伯克希尔哈撒韦一直是股票的净卖家，包括不合时宜地几乎完全清算了富国银行(WFC)8%的股份，我们估计这是富国银行目前56美元价格的一半，剩下100亿美元在桌子上。唯一的重大收购是以80亿美元收购Verizon Communications(VZ)，比伯克希尔哈撒韦的成本下降了10%。</blockquote>Yet Buffett has two capable lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who each manage about 5% of Berkshire’s $325 billion equity portfolio. Let them run more of it.<blockquote>然而，巴菲特有两位能干的副手，托德·库姆斯和泰德·韦施勒，他们各自管理着伯克希尔3250亿美元股票投资组合的约5%。让他们多跑一点。</blockquote>“Turn Weschler loose; he has the skills,” says Bill Smead, lead manager of the Smead Value fund. He cites Weschler’s success in building a $264 million Roth IRA portfolio from less than $100,000.<blockquote>“放开韦施勒；他有技能，”斯米德价值基金首席经理比尔·斯米德说。他引用了韦施勒成功地从不到10万美元建立了2.64亿美元的Roth IRA投资组合。</blockquote>Buffett also will not pay a dividend and has instead ramped up share repurchases since mid-2020, buying back about $40 billion of stock, or 6% of the company’s market value.<blockquote>巴菲特也不会支付股息，而是自2020年中期以来加大了股票回购力度，回购了约400亿美元的股票，占公司市值的6%。</blockquote>Berkshire stock is back in favor with investors and has returned 29% in the past year, nearly double the return on the S&amp;P 500 index. That may reflect a renewed investor interest in value-oriented stocks, the company’s aggressive stock repurchase program, and its broad exposure to an improving U.S. economy.<blockquote>Berkshire股票重新受到投资者青睐，过去一年的回报率为29%，几乎是标普500指数回报率的两倍。这可能反映了投资者对价值导向型股票的重新兴趣、该公司积极的股票回购计划以及对美国经济改善的广泛敞口。</blockquote>Berkshire was a Barron’s top stock pick for 2022, and the Class B shares, now around $315, still look attractive, trading for about 1.4 times estimated year-end 2021 book value.<blockquote>伯克希尔是一家巴伦周刊2022年首选股票，B类股目前约为315美元，看起来仍然很有吸引力，交易价格约为2021年底预计账面价值的1.4倍。</blockquote>While Berkshire has beaten the S&amp;P in the past 12 months, it’s behind the index over the past five years, even with it over 10 years, and narrowly ahead over 20 years.<blockquote>虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦在过去12个月里跑赢了标准普尔指数，但在过去5年里，即使超过10年，它也落后于该指数，并且在20年里以微弱优势领先。</blockquote>Berkshire’s annual meeting on April 30 will be the first in-person gathering in Omaha, Neb., after two years of virtual events. Hearing from Berkshire’s top managers would be a welcome change. They include Abel, who oversees the company’s vast noninsurance operations, and Ajit Jain, who heads its insurance businesses.<blockquote>伯克希尔4月30日的年会将是两年虚拟活动后在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的首次面对面聚会。听到伯克希尔高层管理人员的意见将是一个受欢迎的变化。其中包括负责公司庞大非保险业务的阿贝尔和负责保险业务的阿吉特·贾恩。</blockquote>Big, diversified companies like Berkshire invariably pay dividends. If Berkshire had one, there would be huge demand for the shares from income-oriented investors.<blockquote>像伯克希尔这样的大型多元化公司总是支付股息。如果伯克希尔拥有一只股票，以收入为导向的投资者将会对这些股票有巨大的需求。</blockquote>“A 1.5%-to-2% dividend wouldn’t be an extraordinary commitment for the company, and it would be viewed positively by many investors,” says Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones who has a Buy rating on the stock.<blockquote>爱德华·琼斯(Edward Jones)分析师吉姆·沙纳汉(Jim Shanahan)对该股给予买入评级，他表示：“1.5%至2%的股息对公司来说并不是一个非凡的承诺，而且许多投资者都会对此持积极看法。”</blockquote>Buffett has said Berkshire’s shareholder base doesn’t want a dividend and points to an overwhelming vote against one in 2014.<blockquote>巴菲特曾表示，伯克希尔的股东不想要股息，并指出2014年以压倒性多数投票反对股息。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f75d05f0b07004a98343c1163e4c3ea4\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"586\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Berkshire is daunting for investors to analyze and understand, given its complex insurance operations, dozens of businesses, and sometimes limited financial disclosure. Many investors own the stock because they want to invest alongside Buffett.<blockquote>鉴于伯克希尔复杂的保险业务、数十项业务以及有时有限的财务披露，投资者很难分析和理解伯克希尔。许多投资者持有该股票是因为他们想与巴菲特一起投资。</blockquote>Berkshire will need a new investment rationale after him. An investor day to highlight important businesses like Geico and Burlington Northern Santa Fe would help greatly.<blockquote>在他之后，伯克希尔将需要一个新的投资理由。投资者日突出Geico和Burlington Northern Santa Fe等重要企业将有很大帮助。</blockquote>Buffett is a venerable figure, like Queen Elizabeth II. Just as the British monarchy will face challenges after her death, so will Berkshire after Buffett.<blockquote>巴菲特是一位受人尊敬的人物，就像英国女王伊丽莎白二世一样。正如她去世后英国君主制将面临挑战一样，巴菲特之后的伯克希尔也将面临挑战。</blockquote>Better to start preparing now, rather than hoping that things fall into place later.<blockquote>最好现在就开始准备，而不是希望以后事情会水到渠成。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Warren Buffett Can Do to Ensure a Brighter Future for Berkshire Hathaway<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以做些什么来确保伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司更光明的未来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Warren Buffett Can Do to Ensure a Brighter Future for Berkshire Hathaway<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以做些什么来确保伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司更光明的未来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2022-02-19 11:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>It may be time for some changes at Berkshire Hathaway as CEO Warren Buffett starts to look ahead to his 92nd birthday later this year.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>随着首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特开始展望今年晚些时候的92岁生日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司可能是时候做出一些改变了。</body></html></blockquote>Berkshire investors are now awaiting Buffett’s annual shareholder letter, expected on Feb. 26, for insights into the company, financial markets, and American business. There is much more he could address.<blockquote>伯克希尔投资者目前正在等待巴菲特预计于2月26日发表的年度股东信，以深入了解公司、金融市场和美国业务。他还有更多可以解决的问题。</blockquote>Over 57 years, Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) into a company with a $700 billion market value—sixth in the U.S. market—and $27 billion of annual operating earnings. Yet our view has been that he now needs to do more to prepare for the transition to a new generation of leadership at Berkshire.<blockquote>57年来，巴菲特将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（股票代码：BRK.A和BRK.B）打造成一家市值7000亿美元（在美国市场排名第六）、年营业收入270亿美元的公司。然而，我们的观点是，他现在需要做更多的工作，为伯克希尔向新一代领导层的过渡做好准备。</blockquote>Stepping down as CEO while remaining chairman would allow his heir apparent, Greg Abel, to demonstrate that he can handle the tough job of running a giant conglomerate.<blockquote>辞去首席执行官一职，同时继续担任董事长，这将使他的法定继承人格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）能够证明他能够胜任经营一家大型企业集团的艰巨工作。</blockquote>At a time when investors favor more-focused businesses, there will be pressure almost immediately to break up the company, post-Buffett. Keeping Berkshire together, Buffett has said, provides tax and other benefits. <blockquote>在投资者青睐更专注的业务之际，在巴菲特之后，几乎立即就会面临拆分公司的压力。巴菲特表示，将伯克希尔保持在一起可以提供税收和其他好处。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc0a1951c440e2a4ddf290dce6de826\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"634\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>The past decade has been one of missed opportunities. The only major acquisition—a $32 billion deal for aircraft-parts maker Precision Castparts in 2016—has been a loser. Buffett has had two investment coups, a $31 billion investment in Apple (AAPL) that is up fivefold and an investment in Bank of America (BAC) now worth about $50 billion, up threefold.<blockquote>过去十年是错失良机的十年。唯一的重大收购——2016年以320亿美元收购飞机零部件制造商Precision Castparts的交易——失败了。巴菲特有过两次投资妙招，对苹果(AAPL)的投资310亿美元，增长了五倍；对美银(BAC)的投资现在价值约500亿美元，增长了三倍。</blockquote>In recent years, however, he has turned very cautious as an investor. He failed to capitalize on the pandemic-driven selloff in stocks, ignoring his own maxim to “befearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”<blockquote>然而，近年来，作为投资者，他变得非常谨慎。他未能利用大流行引发的股市抛售，忽视了自己的格言“当别人贪婪时要恐惧，只有当别人恐惧时才贪婪”。</blockquote>Since March 2020, Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks, including a badly timed near-complete liquidation of an 8% holding in Wells Fargo (WFC) at what we estimate was half of Wells Fargo’s current price of $56—leaving $10 billion on the table. The only major purchase, an $8 billion buy of Verizon Communications (VZ), is down 10% from Berkshire’s cost.<blockquote>自2020年3月以来，伯克希尔哈撒韦一直是股票的净卖家，包括不合时宜地几乎完全清算了富国银行(WFC)8%的股份，我们估计这是富国银行目前56美元价格的一半，剩下100亿美元在桌子上。唯一的重大收购是以80亿美元收购Verizon Communications(VZ)，比伯克希尔哈撒韦的成本下降了10%。</blockquote>Yet Buffett has two capable lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who each manage about 5% of Berkshire’s $325 billion equity portfolio. Let them run more of it.<blockquote>然而，巴菲特有两位能干的副手，托德·库姆斯和泰德·韦施勒，他们各自管理着伯克希尔3250亿美元股票投资组合的约5%。让他们多跑一点。</blockquote>“Turn Weschler loose; he has the skills,” says Bill Smead, lead manager of the Smead Value fund. He cites Weschler’s success in building a $264 million Roth IRA portfolio from less than $100,000.<blockquote>“放开韦施勒；他有技能，”斯米德价值基金首席经理比尔·斯米德说。他引用了韦施勒成功地从不到10万美元建立了2.64亿美元的Roth IRA投资组合。</blockquote>Buffett also will not pay a dividend and has instead ramped up share repurchases since mid-2020, buying back about $40 billion of stock, or 6% of the company’s market value.<blockquote>巴菲特也不会支付股息，而是自2020年中期以来加大了股票回购力度，回购了约400亿美元的股票，占公司市值的6%。</blockquote>Berkshire stock is back in favor with investors and has returned 29% in the past year, nearly double the return on the S&amp;P 500 index. That may reflect a renewed investor interest in value-oriented stocks, the company’s aggressive stock repurchase program, and its broad exposure to an improving U.S. economy.<blockquote>Berkshire股票重新受到投资者青睐，过去一年的回报率为29%，几乎是标普500指数回报率的两倍。这可能反映了投资者对价值导向型股票的重新兴趣、该公司积极的股票回购计划以及对美国经济改善的广泛敞口。</blockquote>Berkshire was a Barron’s top stock pick for 2022, and the Class B shares, now around $315, still look attractive, trading for about 1.4 times estimated year-end 2021 book value.<blockquote>伯克希尔是一家巴伦周刊2022年首选股票，B类股目前约为315美元，看起来仍然很有吸引力，交易价格约为2021年底预计账面价值的1.4倍。</blockquote>While Berkshire has beaten the S&amp;P in the past 12 months, it’s behind the index over the past five years, even with it over 10 years, and narrowly ahead over 20 years.<blockquote>虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦在过去12个月里跑赢了标准普尔指数，但在过去5年里，即使超过10年，它也落后于该指数，并且在20年里以微弱优势领先。</blockquote>Berkshire’s annual meeting on April 30 will be the first in-person gathering in Omaha, Neb., after two years of virtual events. Hearing from Berkshire’s top managers would be a welcome change. They include Abel, who oversees the company’s vast noninsurance operations, and Ajit Jain, who heads its insurance businesses.<blockquote>伯克希尔4月30日的年会将是两年虚拟活动后在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的首次面对面聚会。听到伯克希尔高层管理人员的意见将是一个受欢迎的变化。其中包括负责公司庞大非保险业务的阿贝尔和负责保险业务的阿吉特·贾恩。</blockquote>Big, diversified companies like Berkshire invariably pay dividends. If Berkshire had one, there would be huge demand for the shares from income-oriented investors.<blockquote>像伯克希尔这样的大型多元化公司总是支付股息。如果伯克希尔拥有一只股票，以收入为导向的投资者将会对这些股票有巨大的需求。</blockquote>“A 1.5%-to-2% dividend wouldn’t be an extraordinary commitment for the company, and it would be viewed positively by many investors,” says Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones who has a Buy rating on the stock.<blockquote>爱德华·琼斯(Edward Jones)分析师吉姆·沙纳汉(Jim Shanahan)对该股给予买入评级，他表示：“1.5%至2%的股息对公司来说并不是一个非凡的承诺，而且许多投资者都会对此持积极看法。”</blockquote>Buffett has said Berkshire’s shareholder base doesn’t want a dividend and points to an overwhelming vote against one in 2014.<blockquote>巴菲特曾表示，伯克希尔的股东不想要股息，并指出2014年以压倒性多数投票反对股息。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f75d05f0b07004a98343c1163e4c3ea4\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"586\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Berkshire is daunting for investors to analyze and understand, given its complex insurance operations, dozens of businesses, and sometimes limited financial disclosure. Many investors own the stock because they want to invest alongside Buffett.<blockquote>鉴于伯克希尔复杂的保险业务、数十项业务以及有时有限的财务披露，投资者很难分析和理解伯克希尔。许多投资者持有该股票是因为他们想与巴菲特一起投资。</blockquote>Berkshire will need a new investment rationale after him. An investor day to highlight important businesses like Geico and Burlington Northern Santa Fe would help greatly.<blockquote>在他之后，伯克希尔将需要一个新的投资理由。投资者日突出Geico和Burlington Northern Santa Fe等重要企业将有很大帮助。</blockquote>Buffett is a venerable figure, like Queen Elizabeth II. Just as the British monarchy will face challenges after her death, so will Berkshire after Buffett.<blockquote>巴菲特是一位受人尊敬的人物，就像英国女王伊丽莎白二世一样。正如她去世后英国君主制将面临挑战一样，巴菲特之后的伯克希尔也将面临挑战。</blockquote>Better to start preparing now, rather than hoping that things fall into place later.<blockquote>最好现在就开始准备，而不是希望以后事情会水到渠成。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-warren-buffett-can-do-to-ensure-a-brighter-future-for-berkshire-hathaway-51645222075?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-warren-buffett-can-do-to-ensure-a-brighter-future-for-berkshire-hathaway-51645222075?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111287804","content_text":"It may be time for some changes at Berkshire Hathaway as CEO Warren Buffett starts to look ahead to his 92nd birthday later this year.Berkshire investors are now awaiting Buffett’s annual shareholder letter, expected on Feb. 26, for insights into the company, financial markets, and American business. There is much more he could address.Over 57 years, Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) into a company with a $700 billion market value—sixth in the U.S. market—and $27 billion of annual operating earnings. Yet our view has been that he now needs to do more to prepare for the transition to a new generation of leadership at Berkshire.Stepping down as CEO while remaining chairman would allow his heir apparent, Greg Abel, to demonstrate that he can handle the tough job of running a giant conglomerate.At a time when investors favor more-focused businesses, there will be pressure almost immediately to break up the company, post-Buffett. Keeping Berkshire together, Buffett has said, provides tax and other benefits. The past decade has been one of missed opportunities. The only major acquisition—a $32 billion deal for aircraft-parts maker Precision Castparts in 2016—has been a loser. Buffett has had two investment coups, a $31 billion investment in Apple (AAPL) that is up fivefold and an investment in Bank of America (BAC) now worth about $50 billion, up threefold.In recent years, however, he has turned very cautious as an investor. He failed to capitalize on the pandemic-driven selloff in stocks, ignoring his own maxim to “befearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”Since March 2020, Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks, including a badly timed near-complete liquidation of an 8% holding in Wells Fargo (WFC) at what we estimate was half of Wells Fargo’s current price of $56—leaving $10 billion on the table. The only major purchase, an $8 billion buy of Verizon Communications (VZ), is down 10% from Berkshire’s cost.Yet Buffett has two capable lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who each manage about 5% of Berkshire’s $325 billion equity portfolio. Let them run more of it.“Turn Weschler loose; he has the skills,” says Bill Smead, lead manager of the Smead Value fund. He cites Weschler’s success in building a $264 million Roth IRA portfolio from less than $100,000.Buffett also will not pay a dividend and has instead ramped up share repurchases since mid-2020, buying back about $40 billion of stock, or 6% of the company’s market value.Berkshire stock is back in favor with investors and has returned 29% in the past year, nearly double the return on the S&P 500 index. That may reflect a renewed investor interest in value-oriented stocks, the company’s aggressive stock repurchase program, and its broad exposure to an improving U.S. economy.Berkshire was a Barron’s top stock pick for 2022, and the Class B shares, now around $315, still look attractive, trading for about 1.4 times estimated year-end 2021 book value.While Berkshire has beaten the S&P in the past 12 months, it’s behind the index over the past five years, even with it over 10 years, and narrowly ahead over 20 years.Berkshire’s annual meeting on April 30 will be the first in-person gathering in Omaha, Neb., after two years of virtual events. Hearing from Berkshire’s top managers would be a welcome change. They include Abel, who oversees the company’s vast noninsurance operations, and Ajit Jain, who heads its insurance businesses.Big, diversified companies like Berkshire invariably pay dividends. If Berkshire had one, there would be huge demand for the shares from income-oriented investors.“A 1.5%-to-2% dividend wouldn’t be an extraordinary commitment for the company, and it would be viewed positively by many investors,” says Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones who has a Buy rating on the stock.Buffett has said Berkshire’s shareholder base doesn’t want a dividend and points to an overwhelming vote against one in 2014.Berkshire is daunting for investors to analyze and understand, given its complex insurance operations, dozens of businesses, and sometimes limited financial disclosure. Many investors own the stock because they want to invest alongside Buffett.Berkshire will need a new investment rationale after him. An investor day to highlight important businesses like Geico and Burlington Northern Santa Fe would help greatly.Buffett is a venerable figure, like Queen Elizabeth II. Just as the British monarchy will face challenges after her death, so will Berkshire after Buffett.Better to start preparing now, rather than hoping that things fall into place later.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3308,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}