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- AJ1977AJ1977
  ·2022-02-20
  Go go goo
  What Warren Buffett Can Do to Ensure a Brighter Future for Berkshire Hathaway<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以做些什么来确保伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司拥有更光明的未来</blockquote>
  It may be time for some changes at Berkshire Hathaway as CEO Warren Buffett starts to look ahead to
  What Warren Buffett Can Do to Ensure a Brighter Future for Berkshire Hathaway<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以做些什么来确保伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司拥有更光明的未来</blockquote>
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- AJ1977AJ1977
  ·2022-02-20
  Go go go
  JPMorgan Now Expects Nine Straight Fed Rate Increases Until March 2023<blockquote>摩根大通目前预计美联储将在 2023 年 3 月之前连续加息九次</blockquote>
  Economists at JPMorgan Chase said the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the future policy meetings until March 2023 in an effort to get soaring inflation
  JPMorgan Now Expects Nine Straight Fed Rate Increases Until March 2023<blockquote>摩根大通目前预计美联储将在 2023 年 3 月之前连续加息九次</blockquote>
  2,705 2
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- AJ1977AJ1977
  ·2021-12-18
  Ggggggg
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,115 评论
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- AJ1977AJ1977
  ·2021-12-08
  Gggggg
  @钞票厚厚滴：
  $富途控股(FUTU)$谁能告诉我怎么办[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] 两个月没看。
  $富途控股(FUTU)$谁能告诉我怎么办[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] 两个月没看。
  3,382 评论
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- AJ1977AJ1977
  ·2021-12-07
  Ggggggg
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,348 评论
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- AJ1977AJ1977
  ·2021-11-24
  Go go go
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,561 评论
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- AJ1977AJ1977
  ·2021-11-13
  $Paysafe Ltd(PSFE)$Keep adding! Cheap cheap!
  3,689 2
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- AJ1977AJ1977
  ·2021-11-12
  $Paysafe Ltd(PSFE)$Easily $4.70
  3,517 评论
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- AJ1977AJ1977
  ·2021-11-12
  $Nano Dimension(NNDM)$Gggggg
  3,613 评论
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- AJ1977AJ1977
  ·2021-11-12
  $Paysafe Ltd(PSFE)$Love the current price!!! Go go go! 50% profit cmin my way!!
  3,024 评论
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go goo","listText":"Go go goo","text":"Go go goo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638207419","repostId":"1111287804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111287804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645240974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111287804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-19 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Warren Buffett Can Do to Ensure a Brighter Future for Berkshire Hathaway<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以做些什么来确保伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司拥有更光明的未来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111287804","media":"Barrons","summary":"It may be time for some changes at Berkshire Hathaway as CEO Warren Buffett starts to look ahead to ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>It may be time for some changes at Berkshire Hathaway as CEO Warren Buffett starts to look ahead to his 92nd birthday later this year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>随着首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特开始展望今年晚些时候他的 92 岁生日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司可能是时候做出一些改变了。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Berkshire investors are now awaiting Buffett’s annual shareholder letter, expected on Feb. 26, for insights into the company, financial markets, and American business. There is much more he could address.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的投资者现在正在等待巴菲特预计将于 2 月 26 日发表的年度股东信，以了解公司、金融市场和美国商业的见解。他可以解决的问题还有很多。</blockquote></p><p>Over 57 years, Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) into a company with a $700 billion market value—sixth in the U.S. market—and $27 billion of annual operating earnings. Yet our view has been that he now needs to do more to prepare for the transition to a new generation of leadership at Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>57 年来，巴菲特将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（股票代码：BRK.A 和 BRK.B）打造成为一家市值达 7000 亿美元（在美国市场排名第六）、年营业利润达 270 亿美元的公司。然而，我们的观点是，他现在需要做更多的工作来准备向伯克希尔新一代领导层的过渡。</blockquote></p><p>Stepping down as CEO while remaining chairman would allow his heir apparent, Greg Abel, to demonstrate that he can handle the tough job of running a giant conglomerate.</p><p><blockquote>在继续担任董事长的同时辞去首席执行官一职，可以让他的继承人格雷格·阿贝尔证明他能够胜任管理一家大型企业集团的艰巨工作。</blockquote></p><p>At a time when investors favor more-focused businesses, there will be pressure almost immediately to break up the company, post-Buffett. Keeping Berkshire together, Buffett has said, provides tax and other benefits. </p><p><blockquote>在投资者青睐更专注的业务的时候，巴菲特之后，几乎会立即面临拆分公司的压力。巴菲特表示，将伯克希尔保持在一起可以提供税收和其他好处。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc0a1951c440e2a4ddf290dce6de826\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"634\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The past decade has been one of missed opportunities. The only major acquisition—a $32 billion deal for aircraft-parts maker Precision Castparts in 2016—has been a loser. Buffett has had two investment coups, a $31 billion investment in Apple (AAPL) that is up fivefold and an investment in Bank of America (BAC) now worth about $50 billion, up threefold.</p><p><blockquote>过去十年是错失的机会之一。唯一的重大收购——2016 年以 320 亿美元收购飞机零部件制造商 Precision Castparts——一直是输家。巴菲特经历了两次投资政变，一次是对苹果 (AAPL) 的 310 亿美元投资，增长了五倍；另一次是对美国银行 (BAC) 的投资，目前价值约 500 亿美元，增长了三倍。</blockquote></p><p>In recent years, however, he has turned very cautious as an investor. He failed to capitalize on the pandemic-driven selloff in stocks, ignoring his own maxim to “befearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，近年来，作为一名投资者，他变得非常谨慎。他未能利用大流行病引发的股市抛售，无视了自己的座右铭：“别人贪婪时先恐惧，别人恐惧时才贪婪”。</blockquote></p><p>Since March 2020, Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks, including a badly timed near-complete liquidation of an 8% holding in Wells Fargo (WFC) at what we estimate was half of Wells Fargo’s current price of $56—leaving $10 billion on the table. The only major purchase, an $8 billion buy of Verizon Communications (VZ), is down 10% from Berkshire’s cost.</p><p><blockquote>自 2020 年 3 月以来，伯克希尔一直是股票的净卖家，包括在不合时宜的情况下几乎完全清算了富国银行（WFC）8%的股份，我们估计清算价格是富国银行目前 56 美元股价的一半，剩下 100 亿美元。伯克希尔唯一的重大收购是斥资 80 亿美元收购 Verizon Communications (VZ)，比伯克希尔的成本降低了 10%。</blockquote></p><p>Yet Buffett has two capable lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who each manage about 5% of Berkshire’s $325 billion equity portfolio. Let them run more of it.</p><p><blockquote>然而，巴菲特有两位能干的副手，托德-库姆斯（Todd Combs）和特德-韦施勒（Ted Weschler），他们各自管理着伯克希尔 3,250 亿美元股票投资组合的约 5%。让他们运行更多。</blockquote></p><p>“Turn Weschler loose; he has the skills,” says Bill Smead, lead manager of the Smead Value fund. He cites Weschler’s success in building a $264 million Roth IRA portfolio from less than $100,000.</p><p><blockquote>“斯米德价值基金（Smead Value fund）首席经理比尔-斯米德（Bill Smead）说：”放开韦施勒；他有技能。他列举了韦施勒用不到 10 万美元建立 2.64 亿美元罗斯个人退休帐户投资组合的成功案例。</blockquote></p><p>Buffett also will not pay a dividend and has instead ramped up share repurchases since mid-2020, buying back about $40 billion of stock, or 6% of the company’s market value.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特也不会支付股息，而是自 2020 年年中以来加大了股票回购力度，回购了约 400 亿美元的股票，占公司市值的 6%。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire stock is back in favor with investors and has returned 29% in the past year, nearly double the return on the S&amp;P 500 index. That may reflect a renewed investor interest in value-oriented stocks, the company’s aggressive stock repurchase program, and its broad exposure to an improving U.S. economy.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔股票重新受到投资者的青睐，过去一年的回报率为 29%，几乎是标普500指数回报率的两倍。这可能反映出投资者对价值导向型股票重新产生了兴趣，公司积极的股票回购计划，以及公司对美国经济好转的广泛敞口。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire was a <i>Barron’s</i> top stock pick for 2022, and the Class B shares, now around $315, still look attractive, trading for about 1.4 times estimated year-end 2021 book value.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔是一家<i>巴伦</i>2022 年的首选股票，B 类股目前约为 315 美元，看起来仍然很有吸引力，交易价格约为 2021 年底估计账面价值的 1.4 倍。</blockquote></p><p>While Berkshire has beaten the S&amp;P in the past 12 months, it’s behind the index over the past five years, even with it over 10 years, and narrowly ahead over 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯克希尔在过去 12 个月中跑赢了标准普尔指数，但在过去五年中，即使超过 10 年，伯克希尔也落后于标准普尔指数，20 年也以微弱优势领先。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire’s annual meeting on April 30 will be the first in-person gathering in Omaha, Neb., after two years of virtual events. Hearing from Berkshire’s top managers would be a welcome change. They include Abel, who oversees the company’s vast noninsurance operations, and Ajit Jain, who heads its insurance businesses.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔公司 4 月 30 日的年会将是两年来在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的首次面对面聚会。听取伯克希尔高层管理人员的意见将是一个受欢迎的变化。他们包括负责公司庞大非保险业务的阿贝尔和负责保险业务的阿吉特-贾恩。</blockquote></p><p>Big, diversified companies like Berkshire invariably pay dividends. If Berkshire had one, there would be huge demand for the shares from income-oriented investors.</p><p><blockquote>像伯克希尔这样的多元化大公司总是会支付股息。如果伯克希尔哈撒韦公司有这样的股票，那么以收入为导向的投资者将会对这些股票产生巨大的需求。</blockquote></p><p>“A 1.5%-to-2% dividend wouldn’t be an extraordinary commitment for the company, and it would be viewed positively by many investors,” says Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones who has a Buy rating on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>“爱德华-琼斯（Edward Jones）分析师吉姆-沙纳汉（Jim Shanahan）说：”1.5% 至 2% 的股息对公司来说并不是一个特别的承诺，许多投资者都会对此持积极态度。</blockquote></p><p>Buffett has said Berkshire’s shareholder base doesn’t want a dividend and points to an overwhelming vote against one in 2014.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特曾表示，伯克希尔的股东基础不希望分红，并指出2014年将有压倒性的投票反对分红。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f75d05f0b07004a98343c1163e4c3ea4\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"586\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Berkshire is daunting for investors to analyze and understand, given its complex insurance operations, dozens of businesses, and sometimes limited financial disclosure. Many investors own the stock because they want to invest alongside Buffett.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于伯克希尔复杂的保险业务、数十项业务以及有时有限的财务披露，投资者很难分析和理解伯克希尔。许多投资者持有该股票是因为他们想与巴菲特一起投资。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire will need a new investment rationale after him. An investor day to highlight important businesses like Geico and Burlington Northern Santa Fe would help greatly.</p><p><blockquote>在他之后，伯克希尔将需要一个新的投资理由。突出 Geico 和 Burlington Northern Santa Fe 等重要企业的投资者日将会有很大帮助。</blockquote></p><p>Buffett is a venerable figure, like Queen Elizabeth II. Just as the British monarchy will face challenges after her death, so will Berkshire after Buffett.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特是一位德高望重的人物，就像伊丽莎白二世女王一样。正如她去世后英国君主制将面临挑战一样，巴菲特之后伯克希尔也将面临挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Better to start preparing now, rather than hoping that things fall into place later.</p><p><blockquote>最好现在就开始准备，而不是希望事情以后会水落石出。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Warren Buffett Can Do to Ensure a Brighter Future for Berkshire Hathaway<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以做些什么来确保伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司拥有更光明的未来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Warren Buffett Can Do to Ensure a Brighter Future for Berkshire Hathaway<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以做些什么来确保伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司拥有更光明的未来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-19 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>It may be time for some changes at Berkshire Hathaway as CEO Warren Buffett starts to look ahead to his 92nd birthday later this year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>随着首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特开始展望今年晚些时候他的 92 岁生日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司可能是时候做出一些改变了。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Berkshire investors are now awaiting Buffett’s annual shareholder letter, expected on Feb. 26, for insights into the company, financial markets, and American business. There is much more he could address.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的投资者现在正在等待巴菲特预计将于 2 月 26 日发表的年度股东信，以了解公司、金融市场和美国商业的见解。他可以解决的问题还有很多。</blockquote></p><p>Over 57 years, Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) into a company with a $700 billion market value—sixth in the U.S. market—and $27 billion of annual operating earnings. Yet our view has been that he now needs to do more to prepare for the transition to a new generation of leadership at Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>57 年来，巴菲特将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（股票代码：BRK.A 和 BRK.B）打造成为一家市值达 7000 亿美元（在美国市场排名第六）、年营业利润达 270 亿美元的公司。然而，我们的观点是，他现在需要做更多的工作来准备向伯克希尔新一代领导层的过渡。</blockquote></p><p>Stepping down as CEO while remaining chairman would allow his heir apparent, Greg Abel, to demonstrate that he can handle the tough job of running a giant conglomerate.</p><p><blockquote>在继续担任董事长的同时辞去首席执行官一职，可以让他的继承人格雷格·阿贝尔证明他能够胜任管理一家大型企业集团的艰巨工作。</blockquote></p><p>At a time when investors favor more-focused businesses, there will be pressure almost immediately to break up the company, post-Buffett. Keeping Berkshire together, Buffett has said, provides tax and other benefits. </p><p><blockquote>在投资者青睐更专注的业务的时候，巴菲特之后，几乎会立即面临拆分公司的压力。巴菲特表示，将伯克希尔保持在一起可以提供税收和其他好处。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc0a1951c440e2a4ddf290dce6de826\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"634\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The past decade has been one of missed opportunities. The only major acquisition—a $32 billion deal for aircraft-parts maker Precision Castparts in 2016—has been a loser. Buffett has had two investment coups, a $31 billion investment in Apple (AAPL) that is up fivefold and an investment in Bank of America (BAC) now worth about $50 billion, up threefold.</p><p><blockquote>过去十年是错失的机会之一。唯一的重大收购——2016 年以 320 亿美元收购飞机零部件制造商 Precision Castparts——一直是输家。巴菲特经历了两次投资政变，一次是对苹果 (AAPL) 的 310 亿美元投资，增长了五倍；另一次是对美国银行 (BAC) 的投资，目前价值约 500 亿美元，增长了三倍。</blockquote></p><p>In recent years, however, he has turned very cautious as an investor. He failed to capitalize on the pandemic-driven selloff in stocks, ignoring his own maxim to “befearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，近年来，作为一名投资者，他变得非常谨慎。他未能利用大流行病引发的股市抛售，无视了自己的座右铭：“别人贪婪时先恐惧，别人恐惧时才贪婪”。</blockquote></p><p>Since March 2020, Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks, including a badly timed near-complete liquidation of an 8% holding in Wells Fargo (WFC) at what we estimate was half of Wells Fargo’s current price of $56—leaving $10 billion on the table. The only major purchase, an $8 billion buy of Verizon Communications (VZ), is down 10% from Berkshire’s cost.</p><p><blockquote>自 2020 年 3 月以来，伯克希尔一直是股票的净卖家，包括在不合时宜的情况下几乎完全清算了富国银行（WFC）8%的股份，我们估计清算价格是富国银行目前 56 美元股价的一半，剩下 100 亿美元。伯克希尔唯一的重大收购是斥资 80 亿美元收购 Verizon Communications (VZ)，比伯克希尔的成本降低了 10%。</blockquote></p><p>Yet Buffett has two capable lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who each manage about 5% of Berkshire’s $325 billion equity portfolio. Let them run more of it.</p><p><blockquote>然而，巴菲特有两位能干的副手，托德-库姆斯（Todd Combs）和特德-韦施勒（Ted Weschler），他们各自管理着伯克希尔 3,250 亿美元股票投资组合的约 5%。让他们运行更多。</blockquote></p><p>“Turn Weschler loose; he has the skills,” says Bill Smead, lead manager of the Smead Value fund. He cites Weschler’s success in building a $264 million Roth IRA portfolio from less than $100,000.</p><p><blockquote>“斯米德价值基金（Smead Value fund）首席经理比尔-斯米德（Bill Smead）说：”放开韦施勒；他有技能。他列举了韦施勒用不到 10 万美元建立 2.64 亿美元罗斯个人退休帐户投资组合的成功案例。</blockquote></p><p>Buffett also will not pay a dividend and has instead ramped up share repurchases since mid-2020, buying back about $40 billion of stock, or 6% of the company’s market value.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特也不会支付股息，而是自 2020 年年中以来加大了股票回购力度，回购了约 400 亿美元的股票，占公司市值的 6%。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire stock is back in favor with investors and has returned 29% in the past year, nearly double the return on the S&amp;P 500 index. That may reflect a renewed investor interest in value-oriented stocks, the company’s aggressive stock repurchase program, and its broad exposure to an improving U.S. economy.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔股票重新受到投资者的青睐，过去一年的回报率为 29%，几乎是标普500指数回报率的两倍。这可能反映出投资者对价值导向型股票重新产生了兴趣，公司积极的股票回购计划，以及公司对美国经济好转的广泛敞口。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire was a <i>Barron’s</i> top stock pick for 2022, and the Class B shares, now around $315, still look attractive, trading for about 1.4 times estimated year-end 2021 book value.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔是一家<i>巴伦</i>2022 年的首选股票，B 类股目前约为 315 美元，看起来仍然很有吸引力，交易价格约为 2021 年底估计账面价值的 1.4 倍。</blockquote></p><p>While Berkshire has beaten the S&amp;P in the past 12 months, it’s behind the index over the past five years, even with it over 10 years, and narrowly ahead over 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯克希尔在过去 12 个月中跑赢了标准普尔指数，但在过去五年中，即使超过 10 年，伯克希尔也落后于标准普尔指数，20 年也以微弱优势领先。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire’s annual meeting on April 30 will be the first in-person gathering in Omaha, Neb., after two years of virtual events. Hearing from Berkshire’s top managers would be a welcome change. They include Abel, who oversees the company’s vast noninsurance operations, and Ajit Jain, who heads its insurance businesses.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔公司 4 月 30 日的年会将是两年来在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的首次面对面聚会。听取伯克希尔高层管理人员的意见将是一个受欢迎的变化。他们包括负责公司庞大非保险业务的阿贝尔和负责保险业务的阿吉特-贾恩。</blockquote></p><p>Big, diversified companies like Berkshire invariably pay dividends. If Berkshire had one, there would be huge demand for the shares from income-oriented investors.</p><p><blockquote>像伯克希尔这样的多元化大公司总是会支付股息。如果伯克希尔哈撒韦公司有这样的股票，那么以收入为导向的投资者将会对这些股票产生巨大的需求。</blockquote></p><p>“A 1.5%-to-2% dividend wouldn’t be an extraordinary commitment for the company, and it would be viewed positively by many investors,” says Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones who has a Buy rating on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>“爱德华-琼斯（Edward Jones）分析师吉姆-沙纳汉（Jim Shanahan）说：”1.5% 至 2% 的股息对公司来说并不是一个特别的承诺，许多投资者都会对此持积极态度。</blockquote></p><p>Buffett has said Berkshire’s shareholder base doesn’t want a dividend and points to an overwhelming vote against one in 2014.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特曾表示，伯克希尔的股东基础不希望分红，并指出2014年将有压倒性的投票反对分红。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f75d05f0b07004a98343c1163e4c3ea4\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"586\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Berkshire is daunting for investors to analyze and understand, given its complex insurance operations, dozens of businesses, and sometimes limited financial disclosure. Many investors own the stock because they want to invest alongside Buffett.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于伯克希尔复杂的保险业务、数十项业务以及有时有限的财务披露，投资者很难分析和理解伯克希尔。许多投资者持有该股票是因为他们想与巴菲特一起投资。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire will need a new investment rationale after him. An investor day to highlight important businesses like Geico and Burlington Northern Santa Fe would help greatly.</p><p><blockquote>在他之后，伯克希尔将需要一个新的投资理由。突出 Geico 和 Burlington Northern Santa Fe 等重要企业的投资者日将会有很大帮助。</blockquote></p><p>Buffett is a venerable figure, like Queen Elizabeth II. Just as the British monarchy will face challenges after her death, so will Berkshire after Buffett.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特是一位德高望重的人物，就像伊丽莎白二世女王一样。正如她去世后英国君主制将面临挑战一样，巴菲特之后伯克希尔也将面临挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Better to start preparing now, rather than hoping that things fall into place later.</p><p><blockquote>最好现在就开始准备，而不是希望事情以后会水落石出。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-warren-buffett-can-do-to-ensure-a-brighter-future-for-berkshire-hathaway-51645222075?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-warren-buffett-can-do-to-ensure-a-brighter-future-for-berkshire-hathaway-51645222075?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111287804","content_text":"It may be time for some changes at Berkshire Hathaway as CEO Warren Buffett starts to look ahead to his 92nd birthday later this year.Berkshire investors are now awaiting Buffett’s annual shareholder letter, expected on Feb. 26, for insights into the company, financial markets, and American business. There is much more he could address.Over 57 years, Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) into a company with a $700 billion market value—sixth in the U.S. market—and $27 billion of annual operating earnings. Yet our view has been that he now needs to do more to prepare for the transition to a new generation of leadership at Berkshire.Stepping down as CEO while remaining chairman would allow his heir apparent, Greg Abel, to demonstrate that he can handle the tough job of running a giant conglomerate.At a time when investors favor more-focused businesses, there will be pressure almost immediately to break up the company, post-Buffett. Keeping Berkshire together, Buffett has said, provides tax and other benefits. The past decade has been one of missed opportunities. The only major acquisition—a $32 billion deal for aircraft-parts maker Precision Castparts in 2016—has been a loser. Buffett has had two investment coups, a $31 billion investment in Apple (AAPL) that is up fivefold and an investment in Bank of America (BAC) now worth about $50 billion, up threefold.In recent years, however, he has turned very cautious as an investor. He failed to capitalize on the pandemic-driven selloff in stocks, ignoring his own maxim to “befearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”Since March 2020, Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks, including a badly timed near-complete liquidation of an 8% holding in Wells Fargo (WFC) at what we estimate was half of Wells Fargo’s current price of $56—leaving $10 billion on the table. The only major purchase, an $8 billion buy of Verizon Communications (VZ), is down 10% from Berkshire’s cost.Yet Buffett has two capable lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who each manage about 5% of Berkshire’s $325 billion equity portfolio. Let them run more of it.“Turn Weschler loose; he has the skills,” says Bill Smead, lead manager of the Smead Value fund. He cites Weschler’s success in building a $264 million Roth IRA portfolio from less than $100,000.Buffett also will not pay a dividend and has instead ramped up share repurchases since mid-2020, buying back about $40 billion of stock, or 6% of the company’s market value.Berkshire stock is back in favor with investors and has returned 29% in the past year, nearly double the return on the S&P 500 index. That may reflect a renewed investor interest in value-oriented stocks, the company’s aggressive stock repurchase program, and its broad exposure to an improving U.S. economy.Berkshire was a Barron’s top stock pick for 2022, and the Class B shares, now around $315, still look attractive, trading for about 1.4 times estimated year-end 2021 book value.While Berkshire has beaten the S&P in the past 12 months, it’s behind the index over the past five years, even with it over 10 years, and narrowly ahead over 20 years.Berkshire’s annual meeting on April 30 will be the first in-person gathering in Omaha, Neb., after two years of virtual events. Hearing from Berkshire’s top managers would be a welcome change. They include Abel, who oversees the company’s vast noninsurance operations, and Ajit Jain, who heads its insurance businesses.Big, diversified companies like Berkshire invariably pay dividends. If Berkshire had one, there would be huge demand for the shares from income-oriented investors.“A 1.5%-to-2% dividend wouldn’t be an extraordinary commitment for the company, and it would be viewed positively by many investors,” says Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones who has a Buy rating on the stock.Buffett has said Berkshire’s shareholder base doesn’t want a dividend and points to an overwhelming vote against one in 2014.Berkshire is daunting for investors to analyze and understand, given its complex insurance operations, dozens of businesses, and sometimes limited financial disclosure. Many investors own the stock because they want to invest alongside Buffett.Berkshire will need a new investment rationale after him. An investor day to highlight important businesses like Geico and Burlington Northern Santa Fe would help greatly.Buffett is a venerable figure, like Queen Elizabeth II. Just as the British monarchy will face challenges after her death, so will Berkshire after Buffett.Better to start preparing now, rather than hoping that things fall into place later.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638207509,"gmtCreate":1645318195406,"gmtModify":1645318196108,"author":{"id":"3574411684600657","authorId":"3574411684600657","name":"AJ1977","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa526fc2ee7ebbfedc30edc637c7981f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574411684600657","idStr":"3574411684600657"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go go go&nbsp;","listText":"Go go go&nbsp;","text":"Go go go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638207509","repostId":"1148786525","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148786525","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645318213,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148786525?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-20 08:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Now Expects Nine Straight Fed Rate Increases Until March 2023<blockquote>摩根大通目前预计美联储将在 2023 年 3 月之前连续加息九次</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148786525","media":"Barrons","summary":"Economists at JPMorgan Chase said the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the future policy meetings until March 2023 in an effort to get soaring inflation ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists at JPMorgan Chase said the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the future policy meetings until March 2023 in an effort to get soaring inflation under control. That would mean nine consecutive rate increases, to 2.25%, by March next year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>摩根大通经济学家表示，美联储可能会在 2023 年 3 月之前的每次政策会议上加息 25 个基点，以控制飙升的通胀。这意味着到明年 3 月将连续加息九次，达到 2.25%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The forecast came as U.S. consumer prices in January showed their biggest jump in four decades, triggering concerns about an overheated economy and sharp selloff of the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>这一预测发布之际，美国1月份消费者价格出现了40年来的最大涨幅，引发了人们对经济过热和股市大幅抛售的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>A number of Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of faster policy tightening in the past weeks. On Friday, Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said the Fed needed a “substantial adjustment” of its “wrong-footed” monetary policy given the sharp increase of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>过去几周，一些美联储官员暗示了加快政策收紧的可能性。周五，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长查尔斯-埃文斯（Charles Evans）表示，鉴于通胀急剧上升，美联储需要对其 “错误的 ”货币政策进行 “实质性调整 ”。</blockquote></p><p>The challenges facing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the central bank are examined in the <i>Barron’s</i> cover story this weekend.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和央行面临的挑战在<i>巴伦</i>本周末封面故事。</blockquote></p><p>The futures market is now priced for a 64% probability of a 25-basis-point rate boost at the next Fed meeting in March, and a 36% chance of an even more aggressive increase of 50 basis points.</p><p><blockquote>期货市场目前预计，在 3 月份的下一次美联储会议上加息 25 个基点的可能性为 64%，而更激进地加息 50 个基点的可能性为 36%。</blockquote></p><p>Following the latest inflation readings, JPMorgan economists adjusted their global CPI forecast for the first quarter to 5.7% higher from the same period last year, up from the previous forecast of a 3.5% growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新的通胀数据，摩根大通经济学家将第一季度全球CPI预测调整为比去年同期高出5.7%，高于之前预测的3.5%。</blockquote></p><p>“We now no longer see deceleration from last quarter’s near-record pace,” wrote the team led by chief economist Bruce Kasman in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>“首席经济学家布鲁斯-卡斯曼（Bruce Kasman）领导的团队在一份研究报告中写道：”我们现在不再看到上一季度接近创纪录的速度出现放缓。</blockquote></p><p>Although the recent price pressures in the energy sector will likely fade, recent data are pointing to broadening inflation and “a feedback loop taking hold between strong growth, cost pressures, and private sector behavior,” Kasman wrote.</p><p><blockquote>卡斯曼写道，尽管能源行业近期的价格压力可能会消退，但最近的数据表明通胀正在扩大，“强劲增长、成本压力和私营部门行为之间的反馈循环正在形成”。</blockquote></p><p>“We think the risk that central banks shift and perceive a need to generate slow growth—and the corresponding impact on global financial conditions—is now the most significant threat to an otherwise healthy global backdrop,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”我们认为，各国央行转变并认为有必要产生缓慢增长的风险--以及对全球金融状况的相应影响--现在是对原本健康的全球背景的最大威胁。</blockquote></p><p>JPMorgan isn’t the only bank on Wall Street predicting more aggressive rate hikes. Goldman Sachs is forecasting seven increases this year, up from its earlier prediction of five. Bank of America also increased its forecasts and now expects seven increases this year, or once at every meeting.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通并不是华尔街唯一一家预测更激进加息的银行。高盛预计今年将增长七次，高于之前预测的五次。美国银行也上调了预测，目前预计今年将上调七次，即每次会议上调一次。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Now Expects Nine Straight Fed Rate Increases Until March 2023<blockquote>摩根大通目前预计美联储将在 2023 年 3 月之前连续加息九次</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Now Expects Nine Straight Fed Rate Increases Until March 2023<blockquote>摩根大通目前预计美联储将在 2023 年 3 月之前连续加息九次</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-20 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists at JPMorgan Chase said the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the future policy meetings until March 2023 in an effort to get soaring inflation under control. That would mean nine consecutive rate increases, to 2.25%, by March next year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>摩根大通经济学家表示，美联储可能会在 2023 年 3 月之前的每次政策会议上加息 25 个基点，以控制飙升的通胀。这意味着到明年 3 月将连续加息九次，达到 2.25%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The forecast came as U.S. consumer prices in January showed their biggest jump in four decades, triggering concerns about an overheated economy and sharp selloff of the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>这一预测发布之际，美国1月份消费者价格出现了40年来的最大涨幅，引发了人们对经济过热和股市大幅抛售的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>A number of Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of faster policy tightening in the past weeks. On Friday, Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said the Fed needed a “substantial adjustment” of its “wrong-footed” monetary policy given the sharp increase of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>过去几周，一些美联储官员暗示了加快政策收紧的可能性。周五，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长查尔斯-埃文斯（Charles Evans）表示，鉴于通胀急剧上升，美联储需要对其 “错误的 ”货币政策进行 “实质性调整 ”。</blockquote></p><p>The challenges facing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the central bank are examined in the <i>Barron’s</i> cover story this weekend.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和央行面临的挑战在<i>巴伦</i>本周末封面故事。</blockquote></p><p>The futures market is now priced for a 64% probability of a 25-basis-point rate boost at the next Fed meeting in March, and a 36% chance of an even more aggressive increase of 50 basis points.</p><p><blockquote>期货市场目前预计，在 3 月份的下一次美联储会议上加息 25 个基点的可能性为 64%，而更激进地加息 50 个基点的可能性为 36%。</blockquote></p><p>Following the latest inflation readings, JPMorgan economists adjusted their global CPI forecast for the first quarter to 5.7% higher from the same period last year, up from the previous forecast of a 3.5% growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新的通胀数据，摩根大通经济学家将第一季度全球CPI预测调整为比去年同期高出5.7%，高于之前预测的3.5%。</blockquote></p><p>“We now no longer see deceleration from last quarter’s near-record pace,” wrote the team led by chief economist Bruce Kasman in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>“首席经济学家布鲁斯-卡斯曼（Bruce Kasman）领导的团队在一份研究报告中写道：”我们现在不再看到上一季度接近创纪录的速度出现放缓。</blockquote></p><p>Although the recent price pressures in the energy sector will likely fade, recent data are pointing to broadening inflation and “a feedback loop taking hold between strong growth, cost pressures, and private sector behavior,” Kasman wrote.</p><p><blockquote>卡斯曼写道，尽管能源行业近期的价格压力可能会消退，但最近的数据表明通胀正在扩大，“强劲增长、成本压力和私营部门行为之间的反馈循环正在形成”。</blockquote></p><p>“We think the risk that central banks shift and perceive a need to generate slow growth—and the corresponding impact on global financial conditions—is now the most significant threat to an otherwise healthy global backdrop,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”我们认为，各国央行转变并认为有必要产生缓慢增长的风险--以及对全球金融状况的相应影响--现在是对原本健康的全球背景的最大威胁。</blockquote></p><p>JPMorgan isn’t the only bank on Wall Street predicting more aggressive rate hikes. Goldman Sachs is forecasting seven increases this year, up from its earlier prediction of five. Bank of America also increased its forecasts and now expects seven increases this year, or once at every meeting.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通并不是华尔街唯一一家预测更激进加息的银行。高盛预计今年将增长七次，高于之前预测的五次。美国银行也上调了预测，目前预计今年将上调七次，即每次会议上调一次。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-now-expects-nine-straight-fed-rate-increases-until-march-2023-51645298667?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-now-expects-nine-straight-fed-rate-increases-until-march-2023-51645298667?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148786525","content_text":"Economists at JPMorgan Chase said the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the future policy meetings until March 2023 in an effort to get soaring inflation under control. That would mean nine consecutive rate increases, to 2.25%, by March next year.The forecast came as U.S. consumer prices in January showed their biggest jump in four decades, triggering concerns about an overheated economy and sharp selloff of the stock market.A number of Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of faster policy tightening in the past weeks. On Friday, Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said the Fed needed a “substantial adjustment” of its “wrong-footed” monetary policy given the sharp increase of inflation.The challenges facing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the central bank are examined in the Barron’s cover story this weekend.The futures market is now priced for a 64% probability of a 25-basis-point rate boost at the next Fed meeting in March, and a 36% chance of an even more aggressive increase of 50 basis points.Following the latest inflation readings, JPMorgan economists adjusted their global CPI forecast for the first quarter to 5.7% higher from the same period last year, up from the previous forecast of a 3.5% growth.“We now no longer see deceleration from last quarter’s near-record pace,” wrote the team led by chief economist Bruce Kasman in a research note.Although the recent price pressures in the energy sector will likely fade, recent data are pointing to broadening inflation and “a feedback loop taking hold between strong growth, cost pressures, and private sector behavior,” Kasman wrote.“We think the risk that central banks shift and perceive a need to generate slow growth—and the corresponding impact on global financial conditions—is now the most significant threat to an otherwise healthy global backdrop,” he wrote.JPMorgan isn’t the only bank on Wall Street predicting more aggressive rate hikes. Goldman Sachs is forecasting seven increases this year, up from its earlier prediction of five. 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