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2021-12-28

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Is Nvidia Stock Worth Investing In For The Long-Term?<blockquote>英伟达股票值得长期投资吗？</blockquote>

Summary Nvidia now sports a PE ratio of 90+, and the market is absolutely in love with its growth s

Is Nvidia Stock Worth Investing In For The Long-Term?<blockquote>英伟达股票值得长期投资吗？</blockquote>

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But will the growth story continue?</li> <li>In this article, we show that gaming growth is inflated artificially by high GPU AIB prices, which are not sustainable.</li> <li>Intel is about to launch its own discrete GPUs in Q1, and Ethereum is expected to go Proof-of-Stake in H1. These two are major headwinds to the Nvidia gravy train.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d3f68e7d7037092fadd0ee8f1ab7d6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">wellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Nvidia现在的市盈率为90+，市场绝对喜欢它的增长故事。但增长故事还会继续吗？</li><li>在本文中，我们展示了游戏增长是由高GPU AIB价格人为夸大的，这是不可持续的。</li><li>英特尔即将在第一季度推出自己的独立GPU，以太币预计将在上半年进行股权证明。这两个是Nvidia肉汁列车的主要阻力。</li></ul>wellesenterprises/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Nvidia (NVDA) has been an investor darling and had a spectacular runup year to date with the stock appreciating over 125%.<blockquote>Nvidia(NVDA)一直是投资者的宠儿，今年迄今为止股价上涨幅度惊人，涨幅超过125%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf4117b89da612f24b90b1bebd6f5d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Despite having an \"F\" on valuation, the quant rating on the stock continues to be bullish (image below)<blockquote>尽管估值为“F”，但该股的量化评级仍然看涨（如下图）</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3784fdd1da9ebec7afe973fa798288\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"180\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> There is no shortage of boosters for the stock. Wall Street analysts are super bullish with only two of 42 surveyed analysts being bearish.<blockquote>该股不乏助推器。华尔街分析师超级看涨，42名接受调查的分析师中只有两人看跌。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93dec36cd051edd36b91bef78bc2d74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"174\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Is it a good thing to be bullish about a stock with an \"F\" rating on valuation? It depends. It depends on the drivers behind the valuation drivers and it depends on the drivers for future growth.<blockquote>看好估值“F”级的股票是好事吗？这要看情况。这取决于估值驱动因素背后的驱动因素，也取决于未来增长的驱动因素。</blockquote> Nvidia Stock Recent Performance<blockquote>英伟达股票近期表现</blockquote> Let us take a look at Nvidia's recent growth and profitability drivers. As can be seen from the image below, despite the strong data center narrative, the Company's top revenue generator continues to be the \"gaming\" segment. To be sure, data center is growing more rapidly than \"gaming\" and will likely surpass gaming revenues in CY2022, but the impact of gaming on the recent earnings beat should be looked at carefully.<blockquote>让我们来看看英伟达最近的增长和盈利驱动因素。从下图可以看出，尽管数据中心叙事强劲，但该公司的最大收入来源仍然是“游戏”部门。可以肯定的是，数据中心的增长速度快于“游戏”，并且可能会在2022年超过游戏收入，但应仔细考虑游戏对近期盈利增长的影响。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5251fd26538fd8dad470c12bc7987c82\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Nvidia<blockquote>资料来源：英伟达</blockquote> While these breakdowns are useful, Nvidia does two things that make interpreting the sustainability of these results difficult. The first one is that Nvidia underplays the impact of crypto-related buying in the gaming segment when multiple data points strongly indicate that it is crypto that is driving the gaming business. The second one is that Nvidia does not disclose the ASPs in the gaming business. A look at the table above shows that the gaming business grew from $1.9B in Q3 FY21 to $2.936B in Q3 FY22. At first, that comes across as a spectacular 55% growth year-over-year. But did the \"gaming\" business really grow that rapidly? Are there 55% more gaming card purchases? Given the lack of information from Nvidia, it is difficult to tell what the unit growth numbers look like. Fortunately, we can get a decent estimate by looking at retail prices of GPUs and from market research data. There are multiple data points out there that indicate that GPU ASPs are sky high now and cards are selling at prices never seen before.<blockquote>虽然这些细分很有用，但英伟达做了两件事，使得解释这些结果的可持续性变得困难。第一个是，当多个数据点强烈表明加密货币正在推动游戏业务时，英伟达低估了加密货币相关购买在游戏领域的影响。第二个是英伟达没有披露游戏业务的ASP。上表显示，游戏业务从21财年第三季度的$19亿增长到22财年第三季度的$29.36亿。起初，这给人的印象是同比增长55%。但是“游戏”业务真的增长那么快吗？游戏卡购买量增加了55%吗？鉴于缺乏英伟达的信息，很难判断单位增长数字是什么样的。幸运的是，我们可以通过查看GPU的零售价格和市场研究数据来获得一个不错的估计。有多个数据点表明，GPU的平均售价现在非常高，卡的售价也前所未有。</blockquote> For example, John Peddie Research, the source of the GPU data for the image below, shows that Add-In-Card GPU ASPs jumped from $487 in Q3 CY20 to $1077 in Q3 CY21. That is an increase of over 100% in ASPs at the board level. Note that the market research uses calendar years whereas Nvidia numbers are fiscal years. So, there is a slight offset, but the numbers are close enough. Note also that Nvidia reports a blend of chip and add-in-board sales whereas JPR quotes only AIB ASP. Because of the crypto demand, the AIB prices have shot up considerably, but chip prices may not have shot up as much. JPR also gives an estimate of the unit demand which they estimate went up from about 11.5Mu to 12.72Mu. That is only about a 10% growth in units. Working backward, we can see that the lion's share of Nvidia gaming growth came in ASP increases and not in unit growth.<blockquote>例如，下图GPU数据的来源John Peddie Research显示，附加卡GPU平均售价从2020年第三季度的487美元跃升至2021年第三季度的1077美元。这意味着董事会层面的平均售价增长了100%以上。请注意，市场研究使用日历年，而Nvidia的数据是财政年度。所以，有一个轻微的偏移，但数字足够接近。另请注意，Nvidia报告了芯片和附加板销售额的混合，而JPR仅引用了AIB ASP。由于加密货币需求，AIB价格大幅上涨，但芯片价格可能没有上涨那么多。JPR还给出了单位需求的估计，他们估计单位需求从大约11.5亩上升到12.72亩。这只是单位增长了10%左右。回顾过去，我们可以看到英伟达游戏增长的最大份额来自平均售价的增长，而不是单位增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee66f54799a076a486504bbb315da026\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"158\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: 3DCenter.org<blockquote>资料来源：3DCenter.org</blockquote> Nvidia can achieve the big ASP gains by three methods - a) by increasing the prices of its chips, b) by selling AIBs at high ASPs directly to end customers, and c) by increasingly pushing the market toward higher-end solutions such as the 3070, 3080s, and 3090s. As most semiconductor investors know well, in a high leverage business like semiconductors, the incremental prices drop to the bottom line at a high rate. In other words, the current crypto-driven boom is artificially padding up revenue growth and is padding up profitability growth even more.<blockquote>Nvidia可以通过三种方法实现巨大的ASP收益——a)提高芯片价格，b)以高ASP直接向最终客户销售AIB，以及c)越来越多地推动市场转向更高端的解决方案，例如3070、3080和3090。正如大多数半导体投资者所熟知的，在半导体这样的高杠杆业务中，增量价格以很高的速度下降到底线。换句话说，当前加密货币驱动的繁荣正在人为地提高收入增长，甚至进一步提高盈利能力增长。</blockquote> Impact of Crypto Miners on NVDA Stock<blockquote>加密货币矿工对NVDA股票的影响</blockquote> So, why is it that gamers are all of a sudden paying two times or higher prices for GPU cards? Is this sustainable? Firstly, there is absolutely no evidence that gamers are shelling out huge bucks to buy these cards. Gamer forums are full of complaints about gamers being unable to buy cards at reasonable prices - if at all. So, who is buying these cards?<blockquote>那么，为什么游戏玩家突然为GPU卡支付两倍或更高的价格呢？这可持续吗？首先，绝对没有证据表明游戏玩家会花大价钱购买这些卡。玩家论坛上充斥着对玩家无法以合理价格购买卡片的抱怨——如果有的话。那么，谁在买这些卡呢？</blockquote> The answer is simple. It is the crypto miners who are buying these cards and can justify paying the high prices due to high crypto prices - especially for Ethereum. A vast majority of the entire \"gaming\" supply appears to be getting sold to these miners as they see these cards as an investment.<blockquote>答案很简单。购买这些卡的是加密货币矿工，他们可以证明由于加密货币价格高而支付高价是合理的——尤其是对以太币而言。整个“游戏”供应的绝大多数似乎都卖给了这些矿工，因为他们将这些卡视为一种投资。</blockquote> But this crypto boom is likely to end soon as Ethereum is expected to go to Proof-of-Stake in H1 2022. Even if that gets delayed, as it has in the past, investors should be aware that Intel (INTC) is about to enter the gaming GPU market in Q1. Intel's entry should substantially change the supply-demand situation as there will now be three suppliers - Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel - serving the GPU market. Note that both AMD and Intel have low market share and are likely to derive proportionally small percentages of their revenues from the GPU segment and thus can afford to be very aggressive in going after market share. This dynamic is likely to be a severe headwind to Nvidia as the market leader has a lot more to lose than the challengers.<blockquote>但这种加密货币热潮可能很快就会结束，因为以太币预计将在2022年上半年进行权益证明。即使像过去一样被推迟，投资者也应该意识到英特尔(INTC)即将在第一季度进入游戏GPU市场。英特尔的进入应该会极大地改变供需状况，因为现在将有三家供应商——英伟达、超微设备（AMD）和英特尔——服务于GPU市场。请注意，AMD和英特尔的市场份额都很低，并且可能从GPU领域获得很小比例的收入，因此可以非常积极地争夺市场份额。这种动态可能会对英伟达构成严重阻力，因为市场领导者比挑战者损失更多。</blockquote> Conclusion: Is NVDA Stock a Long-Term Buy?<blockquote>结论：NVDA股票值得长期买入吗？</blockquote> Nvidia's data center business is likely to do well in the near term, but the largest business segment taking big hits on revenues and profitability is likely to cause considerable harm to the growth story. Nvidia currently sports over 90x price-earnings multiple as the stock has become somewhat of a symbol for a growth story - although much of the recent growth has not been organic and instead a result of the Mellanox acquisition. In some ways, the GPU story is similar to how AMD went after Intel CPU market share and for the last several years Intel share price has stagnated as AMD gained share. Over time, Intel's ASPs have fallen, its margins and profitability have fallen, and the street is no longer in love with Intel. And Intel's stock price stagnation occurred even though Intel stock was not richly valued. Nvidia stock price has a lot more to give in context. Considering the steep valuation multiple the stock sports, now is not a good time to be long this story.<blockquote>英伟达的数据中心业务短期内可能会表现良好，但最大的业务部门在收入和盈利能力方面遭受重创，可能会对增长故事造成相当大的损害。Nvidia目前的市盈率超过90倍，因为该股在某种程度上已成为增长故事的象征——尽管最近的增长大部分不是有机的，而是收购Mellanox的结果。在某些方面，GPU的故事类似于AMD争夺英特尔CPU市场份额的方式，在过去几年中，随着AMD份额的增加，英特尔股价一直停滞不前。随着时间的推移，英特尔的平均售价下降，利润率和盈利能力下降，华尔街不再爱英特尔。尽管英特尔股票估值并不高，但英特尔的股价还是出现了停滞。英伟达的股价在背景下还有很多可以提供的。考虑到股票运动的估值倍数很高，现在不是做多这个故事的好时机。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Nvidia Stock Worth Investing In For The Long-Term?<blockquote>英伟达股票值得长期投资吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Nvidia Stock Worth Investing In For The Long-Term?<blockquote>英伟达股票值得长期投资吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-28 16:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Nvidia now sports a PE ratio of 90+, and the market is absolutely in love with its growth story. But will the growth story continue?</li> <li>In this article, we show that gaming growth is inflated artificially by high GPU AIB prices, which are not sustainable.</li> <li>Intel is about to launch its own discrete GPUs in Q1, and Ethereum is expected to go Proof-of-Stake in H1. These two are major headwinds to the Nvidia gravy train.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d3f68e7d7037092fadd0ee8f1ab7d6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">wellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Nvidia现在的市盈率为90+，市场绝对喜欢它的增长故事。但增长故事还会继续吗？</li><li>在本文中，我们展示了游戏增长是由高GPU AIB价格人为夸大的，这是不可持续的。</li><li>英特尔即将在第一季度推出自己的独立GPU，以太币预计将在上半年进行股权证明。这两个是Nvidia肉汁列车的主要阻力。</li></ul>wellesenterprises/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Nvidia (NVDA) has been an investor darling and had a spectacular runup year to date with the stock appreciating over 125%.<blockquote>Nvidia(NVDA)一直是投资者的宠儿，今年迄今为止股价上涨幅度惊人，涨幅超过125%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf4117b89da612f24b90b1bebd6f5d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Despite having an \"F\" on valuation, the quant rating on the stock continues to be bullish (image below)<blockquote>尽管估值为“F”，但该股的量化评级仍然看涨（如下图）</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3784fdd1da9ebec7afe973fa798288\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"180\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> There is no shortage of boosters for the stock. Wall Street analysts are super bullish with only two of 42 surveyed analysts being bearish.<blockquote>该股不乏助推器。华尔街分析师超级看涨，42名接受调查的分析师中只有两人看跌。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93dec36cd051edd36b91bef78bc2d74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"174\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Is it a good thing to be bullish about a stock with an \"F\" rating on valuation? It depends. It depends on the drivers behind the valuation drivers and it depends on the drivers for future growth.<blockquote>看好估值“F”级的股票是好事吗？这要看情况。这取决于估值驱动因素背后的驱动因素，也取决于未来增长的驱动因素。</blockquote> Nvidia Stock Recent Performance<blockquote>英伟达股票近期表现</blockquote> Let us take a look at Nvidia's recent growth and profitability drivers. As can be seen from the image below, despite the strong data center narrative, the Company's top revenue generator continues to be the \"gaming\" segment. To be sure, data center is growing more rapidly than \"gaming\" and will likely surpass gaming revenues in CY2022, but the impact of gaming on the recent earnings beat should be looked at carefully.<blockquote>让我们来看看英伟达最近的增长和盈利驱动因素。从下图可以看出，尽管数据中心叙事强劲，但该公司的最大收入来源仍然是“游戏”部门。可以肯定的是，数据中心的增长速度快于“游戏”，并且可能会在2022年超过游戏收入，但应仔细考虑游戏对近期盈利增长的影响。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5251fd26538fd8dad470c12bc7987c82\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Nvidia<blockquote>资料来源：英伟达</blockquote> While these breakdowns are useful, Nvidia does two things that make interpreting the sustainability of these results difficult. The first one is that Nvidia underplays the impact of crypto-related buying in the gaming segment when multiple data points strongly indicate that it is crypto that is driving the gaming business. The second one is that Nvidia does not disclose the ASPs in the gaming business. A look at the table above shows that the gaming business grew from $1.9B in Q3 FY21 to $2.936B in Q3 FY22. At first, that comes across as a spectacular 55% growth year-over-year. But did the \"gaming\" business really grow that rapidly? Are there 55% more gaming card purchases? Given the lack of information from Nvidia, it is difficult to tell what the unit growth numbers look like. Fortunately, we can get a decent estimate by looking at retail prices of GPUs and from market research data. There are multiple data points out there that indicate that GPU ASPs are sky high now and cards are selling at prices never seen before.<blockquote>虽然这些细分很有用，但英伟达做了两件事，使得解释这些结果的可持续性变得困难。第一个是，当多个数据点强烈表明加密货币正在推动游戏业务时，英伟达低估了加密货币相关购买在游戏领域的影响。第二个是英伟达没有披露游戏业务的ASP。上表显示，游戏业务从21财年第三季度的$19亿增长到22财年第三季度的$29.36亿。起初，这给人的印象是同比增长55%。但是“游戏”业务真的增长那么快吗？游戏卡购买量增加了55%吗？鉴于缺乏英伟达的信息，很难判断单位增长数字是什么样的。幸运的是，我们可以通过查看GPU的零售价格和市场研究数据来获得一个不错的估计。有多个数据点表明，GPU的平均售价现在非常高，卡的售价也前所未有。</blockquote> For example, John Peddie Research, the source of the GPU data for the image below, shows that Add-In-Card GPU ASPs jumped from $487 in Q3 CY20 to $1077 in Q3 CY21. That is an increase of over 100% in ASPs at the board level. Note that the market research uses calendar years whereas Nvidia numbers are fiscal years. So, there is a slight offset, but the numbers are close enough. Note also that Nvidia reports a blend of chip and add-in-board sales whereas JPR quotes only AIB ASP. Because of the crypto demand, the AIB prices have shot up considerably, but chip prices may not have shot up as much. JPR also gives an estimate of the unit demand which they estimate went up from about 11.5Mu to 12.72Mu. That is only about a 10% growth in units. Working backward, we can see that the lion's share of Nvidia gaming growth came in ASP increases and not in unit growth.<blockquote>例如，下图GPU数据的来源John Peddie Research显示，附加卡GPU平均售价从2020年第三季度的487美元跃升至2021年第三季度的1077美元。这意味着董事会层面的平均售价增长了100%以上。请注意，市场研究使用日历年，而Nvidia的数据是财政年度。所以，有一个轻微的偏移，但数字足够接近。另请注意，Nvidia报告了芯片和附加板销售额的混合，而JPR仅引用了AIB ASP。由于加密货币需求，AIB价格大幅上涨，但芯片价格可能没有上涨那么多。JPR还给出了单位需求的估计，他们估计单位需求从大约11.5亩上升到12.72亩。这只是单位增长了10%左右。回顾过去，我们可以看到英伟达游戏增长的最大份额来自平均售价的增长，而不是单位增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee66f54799a076a486504bbb315da026\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"158\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: 3DCenter.org<blockquote>资料来源：3DCenter.org</blockquote> Nvidia can achieve the big ASP gains by three methods - a) by increasing the prices of its chips, b) by selling AIBs at high ASPs directly to end customers, and c) by increasingly pushing the market toward higher-end solutions such as the 3070, 3080s, and 3090s. As most semiconductor investors know well, in a high leverage business like semiconductors, the incremental prices drop to the bottom line at a high rate. In other words, the current crypto-driven boom is artificially padding up revenue growth and is padding up profitability growth even more.<blockquote>Nvidia可以通过三种方法实现巨大的ASP收益——a)提高芯片价格，b)以高ASP直接向最终客户销售AIB，以及c)越来越多地推动市场转向更高端的解决方案，例如3070、3080和3090。正如大多数半导体投资者所熟知的，在半导体这样的高杠杆业务中，增量价格以很高的速度下降到底线。换句话说，当前加密货币驱动的繁荣正在人为地提高收入增长，甚至进一步提高盈利能力增长。</blockquote> Impact of Crypto Miners on NVDA Stock<blockquote>加密货币矿工对NVDA股票的影响</blockquote> So, why is it that gamers are all of a sudden paying two times or higher prices for GPU cards? Is this sustainable? Firstly, there is absolutely no evidence that gamers are shelling out huge bucks to buy these cards. Gamer forums are full of complaints about gamers being unable to buy cards at reasonable prices - if at all. So, who is buying these cards?<blockquote>那么，为什么游戏玩家突然为GPU卡支付两倍或更高的价格呢？这可持续吗？首先，绝对没有证据表明游戏玩家会花大价钱购买这些卡。玩家论坛上充斥着对玩家无法以合理价格购买卡片的抱怨——如果有的话。那么，谁在买这些卡呢？</blockquote> The answer is simple. It is the crypto miners who are buying these cards and can justify paying the high prices due to high crypto prices - especially for Ethereum. A vast majority of the entire \"gaming\" supply appears to be getting sold to these miners as they see these cards as an investment.<blockquote>答案很简单。购买这些卡的是加密货币矿工，他们可以证明由于加密货币价格高而支付高价是合理的——尤其是对以太币而言。整个“游戏”供应的绝大多数似乎都卖给了这些矿工，因为他们将这些卡视为一种投资。</blockquote> But this crypto boom is likely to end soon as Ethereum is expected to go to Proof-of-Stake in H1 2022. Even if that gets delayed, as it has in the past, investors should be aware that Intel (INTC) is about to enter the gaming GPU market in Q1. Intel's entry should substantially change the supply-demand situation as there will now be three suppliers - Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel - serving the GPU market. Note that both AMD and Intel have low market share and are likely to derive proportionally small percentages of their revenues from the GPU segment and thus can afford to be very aggressive in going after market share. This dynamic is likely to be a severe headwind to Nvidia as the market leader has a lot more to lose than the challengers.<blockquote>但这种加密货币热潮可能很快就会结束，因为以太币预计将在2022年上半年进行权益证明。即使像过去一样被推迟，投资者也应该意识到英特尔(INTC)即将在第一季度进入游戏GPU市场。英特尔的进入应该会极大地改变供需状况，因为现在将有三家供应商——英伟达、超微设备（AMD）和英特尔——服务于GPU市场。请注意，AMD和英特尔的市场份额都很低，并且可能从GPU领域获得很小比例的收入，因此可以非常积极地争夺市场份额。这种动态可能会对英伟达构成严重阻力，因为市场领导者比挑战者损失更多。</blockquote> Conclusion: Is NVDA Stock a Long-Term Buy?<blockquote>结论：NVDA股票值得长期买入吗？</blockquote> Nvidia's data center business is likely to do well in the near term, but the largest business segment taking big hits on revenues and profitability is likely to cause considerable harm to the growth story. Nvidia currently sports over 90x price-earnings multiple as the stock has become somewhat of a symbol for a growth story - although much of the recent growth has not been organic and instead a result of the Mellanox acquisition. In some ways, the GPU story is similar to how AMD went after Intel CPU market share and for the last several years Intel share price has stagnated as AMD gained share. Over time, Intel's ASPs have fallen, its margins and profitability have fallen, and the street is no longer in love with Intel. And Intel's stock price stagnation occurred even though Intel stock was not richly valued. Nvidia stock price has a lot more to give in context. Considering the steep valuation multiple the stock sports, now is not a good time to be long this story.<blockquote>英伟达的数据中心业务短期内可能会表现良好，但最大的业务部门在收入和盈利能力方面遭受重创，可能会对增长故事造成相当大的损害。Nvidia目前的市盈率超过90倍，因为该股在某种程度上已成为增长故事的象征——尽管最近的增长大部分不是有机的，而是收购Mellanox的结果。在某些方面，GPU的故事类似于AMD争夺英特尔CPU市场份额的方式，在过去几年中，随着AMD份额的增加，英特尔股价一直停滞不前。随着时间的推移，英特尔的平均售价下降，利润率和盈利能力下降，华尔街不再爱英特尔。尽管英特尔股票估值并不高，但英特尔的股价还是出现了停滞。英伟达的股价在背景下还有很多可以提供的。考虑到股票运动的估值倍数很高，现在不是做多这个故事的好时机。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476962-nvidia-stock-worth-investing-long-term\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476962-nvidia-stock-worth-investing-long-term","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140347058","content_text":"Summary\n\nNvidia now sports a PE ratio of 90+, and the market is absolutely in love with its growth story. But will the growth story continue?\nIn this article, we show that gaming growth is inflated artificially by high GPU AIB prices, which are not sustainable.\nIntel is about to launch its own discrete GPUs in Q1, and Ethereum is expected to go Proof-of-Stake in H1. These two are major headwinds to the Nvidia gravy train.\n\nwellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nNvidia (NVDA) has been an investor darling and had a spectacular runup year to date with the stock appreciating over 125%.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nDespite having an \"F\" on valuation, the quant rating on the stock continues to be bullish (image below)\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThere is no shortage of boosters for the stock. Wall Street analysts are super bullish with only two of 42 surveyed analysts being bearish.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nIs it a good thing to be bullish about a stock with an \"F\" rating on valuation? It depends. It depends on the drivers behind the valuation drivers and it depends on the drivers for future growth.\nNvidia Stock Recent Performance\nLet us take a look at Nvidia's recent growth and profitability drivers. As can be seen from the image below, despite the strong data center narrative, the Company's top revenue generator continues to be the \"gaming\" segment. To be sure, data center is growing more rapidly than \"gaming\" and will likely surpass gaming revenues in CY2022, but the impact of gaming on the recent earnings beat should be looked at carefully.\nSource: Nvidia\nWhile these breakdowns are useful, Nvidia does two things that make interpreting the sustainability of these results difficult. The first one is that Nvidia underplays the impact of crypto-related buying in the gaming segment when multiple data points strongly indicate that it is crypto that is driving the gaming business. The second one is that Nvidia does not disclose the ASPs in the gaming business. A look at the table above shows that the gaming business grew from $1.9B in Q3 FY21 to $2.936B in Q3 FY22. At first, that comes across as a spectacular 55% growth year-over-year. But did the \"gaming\" business really grow that rapidly? Are there 55% more gaming card purchases? Given the lack of information from Nvidia, it is difficult to tell what the unit growth numbers look like. Fortunately, we can get a decent estimate by looking at retail prices of GPUs and from market research data. There are multiple data points out there that indicate that GPU ASPs are sky high now and cards are selling at prices never seen before.\nFor example, John Peddie Research, the source of the GPU data for the image below, shows that Add-In-Card GPU ASPs jumped from $487 in Q3 CY20 to $1077 in Q3 CY21. That is an increase of over 100% in ASPs at the board level. Note that the market research uses calendar years whereas Nvidia numbers are fiscal years. So, there is a slight offset, but the numbers are close enough. Note also that Nvidia reports a blend of chip and add-in-board sales whereas JPR quotes only AIB ASP. Because of the crypto demand, the AIB prices have shot up considerably, but chip prices may not have shot up as much. JPR also gives an estimate of the unit demand which they estimate went up from about 11.5Mu to 12.72Mu. That is only about a 10% growth in units. Working backward, we can see that the lion's share of Nvidia gaming growth came in ASP increases and not in unit growth.\nSource: 3DCenter.org\nNvidia can achieve the big ASP gains by three methods - a) by increasing the prices of its chips, b) by selling AIBs at high ASPs directly to end customers, and c) by increasingly pushing the market toward higher-end solutions such as the 3070, 3080s, and 3090s. As most semiconductor investors know well, in a high leverage business like semiconductors, the incremental prices drop to the bottom line at a high rate. In other words, the current crypto-driven boom is artificially padding up revenue growth and is padding up profitability growth even more.\nImpact of Crypto Miners on NVDA Stock\nSo, why is it that gamers are all of a sudden paying two times or higher prices for GPU cards? Is this sustainable? Firstly, there is absolutely no evidence that gamers are shelling out huge bucks to buy these cards. Gamer forums are full of complaints about gamers being unable to buy cards at reasonable prices - if at all. So, who is buying these cards?\nThe answer is simple. It is the crypto miners who are buying these cards and can justify paying the high prices due to high crypto prices - especially for Ethereum. A vast majority of the entire \"gaming\" supply appears to be getting sold to these miners as they see these cards as an investment.\nBut this crypto boom is likely to end soon as Ethereum is expected to go to Proof-of-Stake in H1 2022. Even if that gets delayed, as it has in the past, investors should be aware that Intel (INTC) is about to enter the gaming GPU market in Q1. Intel's entry should substantially change the supply-demand situation as there will now be three suppliers - Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel - serving the GPU market. Note that both AMD and Intel have low market share and are likely to derive proportionally small percentages of their revenues from the GPU segment and thus can afford to be very aggressive in going after market share. This dynamic is likely to be a severe headwind to Nvidia as the market leader has a lot more to lose than the challengers.\nConclusion: Is NVDA Stock a Long-Term Buy?\nNvidia's data center business is likely to do well in the near term, but the largest business segment taking big hits on revenues and profitability is likely to cause considerable harm to the growth story. Nvidia currently sports over 90x price-earnings multiple as the stock has become somewhat of a symbol for a growth story - although much of the recent growth has not been organic and instead a result of the Mellanox acquisition. In some ways, the GPU story is similar to how AMD went after Intel CPU market share and for the last several years Intel share price has stagnated as AMD gained share. Over time, Intel's ASPs have fallen, its margins and profitability have fallen, and the street is no longer in love with Intel. And Intel's stock price stagnation occurred even though Intel stock was not richly valued. Nvidia stock price has a lot more to give in context. Considering the steep valuation multiple the stock sports, now is not a good time to be long this story.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2102,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}