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2021-08-31

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Five potential bubbles that may be about to burst<blockquote>五个可能即将破裂的潜在泡沫</blockquote>

If you own your home, you may have noticed that the roof above your head has been growing more valua

Five potential bubbles that may be about to burst<blockquote>五个可能即将破裂的潜在泡沫</blockquote>

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Prices in June were up more than 13pc on the year,the fastest pace since 2004.<blockquote>房地产市场的几乎每个部分——伦敦的一些公寓除外——都在蓬勃发展。6月份价格同比上涨超过13%，为2004年以来最快涨幅。</blockquote> It is not only homes which are getting more expensive. Stocks, bonds, commodities and more have all seen sharp price moves since Covid struck.<blockquote>不仅仅是房子变得越来越贵。自新冠疫情爆发以来，股票、债券、大宗商品等都出现了大幅价格波动。</blockquote> Heady rises in assets certainly make investors feel good and raise hopes the economy is on the right track, often in a self-reinforcing cycle.<blockquote>资产的大幅上涨肯定会让投资者感觉良好，并提高人们对经济走上正轨的希望，通常处于自我强化的周期中。</blockquote> But when everything is going up, twitchy markets can suddenly turn, alert for anything which could knock the rebound off course or burst what turns out to be a bubble.<blockquote>但当一切都在上涨时，动荡的市场可能会突然转向，警惕任何可能导致反弹偏离轨道或泡沫破裂的事情。</blockquote> The Federal Reserve couldbungle the end of quantitative easing, causing a 2013-style taper tantrum. Inflation’s surge could be sustained,forcing higher interest rates. Another Covid wave could shock markets out of their optimism.<blockquote>美联储可能会搞砸量化宽松的结束，引发2013年式的缩减恐慌。通胀飙升可能会持续下去，迫使利率上升。另一波新冠疫情可能会让市场失去乐观情绪。</blockquote> Here are five potential bubbles and the threats facing investors.<blockquote>以下是五个潜在的泡沫和投资者面临的威胁。</blockquote> House prices<blockquote>房价</blockquote> Prices hit records this summer. The UK average jumped to £266,000 – up £31,000 on the year, according to the Office for National Statistics.<blockquote>今年夏天价格创下历史新高。根据英国国家统计局的数据，英国的平均水平跃升至266,000英镑，同比增加31,000英镑。</blockquote> Britain’s boom is but one part of an extraordinarily hotglobal property market. US prices are up almost 15pc, the fastest pace in 30 years. Canada’s market is up almost 14pc. New Zealand’s property market is up almost 30pc.<blockquote>英国的繁荣只是异常火爆的全球房地产市场的一部分。美国房价上涨近15%，为30年来最快涨幅。加拿大市场增长了近14%。新西兰房地产市场上涨了近30%。</blockquote> This is all evidence to analysts at the Resolution Foundation that low interest rates, lockdown savings and shifting demand have been more important factors than Britain’s stamp duty holiday in pushing up prices.<blockquote>这些都向Resolution Foundation的分析师证明，低利率、锁定储蓄和需求变化是比英国印花税假期更重要的推高价格因素。</blockquote> The end of the tax break is unlikely to burst the bubble – but a rise in interest rates could.<blockquote>税收减免的结束不太可能打破泡沫，但利率上升可能会打破泡沫。</blockquote> Andrew Wishart at Capital Economics expects prices to rise another 7.5pc by the end of 2023 aided by lower mortgage rates. But he acknowledges the risk of Bank of England rate hikes.<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的Andrew Wishart预计，在抵押贷款利率下降的帮助下，到2023年底，房价将再上涨7.5%。但他承认英国央行加息的风险。</blockquote> “If the Monetary Policy Committee undertakes a significant tightening cycle, perhaps raising Bank Rate to 1.50pc, house prices could drop by 4pc,” he says.<blockquote>“如果货币政策委员会进行重大紧缩周期，或许将银行利率提高至1.50%，房价可能会下跌4%，”他表示。</blockquote> Bonds<blockquote>债券</blockquote> Families are not the only borrowers who have become extremely used to ultra-low rates.<blockquote>家庭并不是唯一已经非常习惯超低利率的借款人。</blockquote> Governments and businesses have also borrowed hard since the pandemic began with minimal repayments allowing them to spend without too many worries.<blockquote>自疫情爆发以来，政府和企业也大量借贷，还款很少，让他们可以不用太担心地消费。</blockquote> Low bond interest rates – yields – equal high bond prices, raising concern over the potential for a bust.<blockquote>低债券利率（收益率）等于高债券价格，引发了人们对破产可能性的担忧。</blockquote> Britain’s Government ran its biggest deficit on record in 2020-21, borrowing £298bn. Yet the cost of servicing the debt slumped to a record low of just 2pc of Treasury revenues, down from as much as 4pc in 2019-20 and 7pc in 2011-12.<blockquote>英国政府在2020-21年出现了有记录以来最大的赤字，借款2980亿英镑。然而，偿债成本跌至历史新低，仅占财政部收入的2%，低于2019-20年的4%和2011-12年的7%。</blockquote> But that has already crept up to 2.9pc as.<blockquote>但这一比例已经攀升至2.9%。</blockquote> Meanwhile businesses worldwide have borrowed heavily. Non-financial businesses’ debts in advanced economies boomed from 165pc of GDP in the final months of 2019 to 185pc by the end of 2020, according to the Bank for International Settlements. In emerging markets it jumped from 147pc to 173pc of GDP. It leaves borrowers vulnerable to a jump in rates.<blockquote>与此同时，世界各地的企业都在大量借贷。根据国际清算银行的数据，发达经济体非金融企业债务占GDP的比例从2019年最后几个月的165%飙升至2020年底的185%。在新兴市场，它占GDP的比例从147%跃升至173%。这使得借款人容易受到利率飙升的影响。</blockquote> Barry Naisbitt, economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, says the extent of the risk depends on how suddenly any rise in rates arrives.<blockquote>美国国家经济和社会研究所经济学家巴里·奈斯比特表示，风险的程度取决于加息的突然程度。</blockquote> “The average duration of UK government debt is long compared to other countries, so it would not immediately face having to roll over debts [at a higher rate],” he says. “But some countries and companies do need to roll over debts soon and could be caught out by a very sudden change.”<blockquote>“与其他国家相比，英国政府债务的平均期限较长，因此它不会立即面临必须（以更高的利率）展期债务的问题，”他表示。“但一些国家和公司确实需要尽快展期债务，并且可能会因突然的变化而陷入困境。”</blockquote> Stocks<blockquote>股票</blockquote> America’s S&amp;P 500 rapidly rebounded from the Covid slump and routinely reaches new highs.<blockquote>美国标普500从新冠疫情暴跌中迅速反弹，并经常创下新高。</blockquote> Optimism on growth is one thing. Assumingand inflation will not become a problem is another.<blockquote>对增长的乐观是一回事。假设通货膨胀不会成为问题是另一回事。</blockquote> Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management, expects a “smooth landing” as the Fed eases off the accelerator, but is wary of the hazards ahead.<blockquote>瑞银财富管理首席投资官马克·海菲尔预计，随着美联储放松油门，经济将“软着陆”，但对未来的危险持谨慎态度。</blockquote> “Every inflation report above 2pc will lead to a chorus of calls for the Fed and other central banks to rein in stimulus, so that inflation doesn’t spiral out of control,” he says.<blockquote>他表示：“每一份高于2%的通胀报告都将导致美联储和其他央行的评级齐声呼吁遏制刺激措施，以免通胀失控。”</blockquote> “At the same time, the Fed knows that overzealous attempts to tame inflation risk putting the economy and markets on course for a hard landing.”<blockquote>“与此同时，美联储知道，过于热心地试图抑制通胀可能会使经济和市场走上硬着陆的道路。”</blockquote> He expects the S&amp;P 500 to rise from almost 4,500 now to 4,800 by June 2022. But with “bad inflation”, a growth crunch or a new Covid scare – the market could tumble to 3,800, erasing almost all of 2021’s gain<blockquote>他预计，到2022年6月，标普500将从现在的近4,500人增加到4,800人。但由于“糟糕的通胀”、增长紧缩或新的新冠恐慌，市场可能会跌至3,800点，抹去2021年几乎所有涨幅</blockquote> Commodities<blockquote>商品</blockquote> The real economy is as big a risk as monetary policy, particularly when it comes to commodity prices.<blockquote>实体经济和货币政策一样是一个巨大的风险，尤其是在大宗商品价格方面。</blockquote> Copper offers a salutary lesson to any investors who think everything has to keep rising this year.<blockquote>铜为任何认为今年一切都必须继续上涨的投资者提供了有益的教训。</blockquote> The red metal doubled in price between its spring 2020 trough and May 2021, far above pre-pandemic levels as China’s economy boomed and the net zero agenda set demand forecasts soaring. But it stumbled several times as Chinese authorities took action to cool prices, then fears of a new wave of Covid hit demand.<blockquote>随着中国经济蓬勃发展和净零议程导致需求预测飙升，这种红色金属的价格在2020年春季低谷至2021年5月期间翻了一番，远高于大流行前的水平。但随着中国当局采取行动冷却价格，随后对新一波新冠疫情的担忧打击了需求，该价格几次跌跌撞撞。</blockquote> At their low ebb this month– high by historical standards, but a sign of how fast a booming market can change.<blockquote>本月处于低谷——按照历史标准来看是高位，但这表明蓬勃发展的市场变化速度有多快。</blockquote> Bitcoin<blockquote>比特币</blockquote> If real world assets are not enough,appears to be on another tear, rising close to $50,000 in recent days from a July low of below $30,000. In April it was more than $60,000.<blockquote>如果现实世界的资产还不够，似乎又在上涨，最近几天从7月份低于30,000美元的低点升至接近50,000美元。4月份超过60,000美元。</blockquote> Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, has been clear about his expectations for the fashionable digital creation. “A cryptoasset is not money (hence the term cryptocurrency is misleading) and has no intrinsic value because it has no backing,” he said earlier this summer.<blockquote>英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）已经明确了他对时尚的数字创作的期望。“加密资产不是货币（因此加密货币一词具有误导性），并且没有内在价值，因为它没有支持，”他今年夏天早些时候表示。</blockquote> Its ultimate value is “highly unstable and could be nothing.”<blockquote>它的最终价值是“高度不稳定，可能什么都不是”。</blockquote> At least houses can still be lived in when a bubble pops.<blockquote>至少当泡沫破裂时，房子仍然可以居住。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1602484828908","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Five potential bubbles that may be about to burst<blockquote>五个可能即将破裂的潜在泡沫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFive potential bubbles that may be about to burst<blockquote>五个可能即将破裂的潜在泡沫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThe Telegraph2021-08-31 08:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIf you own your home, you may have noticed that the roof above your head has been growing more valuable at a startling rate.<blockquote>如果你拥有自己的房子，你可能已经注意到你头顶上的屋顶正以惊人的速度变得越来越有价值。</blockquote> Almost every part of the property market – some London flats excepted – is booming. Prices in June were up more than 13pc on the year,the fastest pace since 2004.<blockquote>房地产市场的几乎每个部分——伦敦的一些公寓除外——都在蓬勃发展。6月份价格同比上涨超过13%，为2004年以来最快涨幅。</blockquote> It is not only homes which are getting more expensive. Stocks, bonds, commodities and more have all seen sharp price moves since Covid struck.<blockquote>不仅仅是房子变得越来越贵。自新冠疫情爆发以来，股票、债券、大宗商品等都出现了大幅价格波动。</blockquote> Heady rises in assets certainly make investors feel good and raise hopes the economy is on the right track, often in a self-reinforcing cycle.<blockquote>资产的大幅上涨肯定会让投资者感觉良好，并提高人们对经济走上正轨的希望，通常处于自我强化的周期中。</blockquote> But when everything is going up, twitchy markets can suddenly turn, alert for anything which could knock the rebound off course or burst what turns out to be a bubble.<blockquote>但当一切都在上涨时，动荡的市场可能会突然转向，警惕任何可能导致反弹偏离轨道或泡沫破裂的事情。</blockquote> The Federal Reserve couldbungle the end of quantitative easing, causing a 2013-style taper tantrum. Inflation’s surge could be sustained,forcing higher interest rates. Another Covid wave could shock markets out of their optimism.<blockquote>美联储可能会搞砸量化宽松的结束，引发2013年式的缩减恐慌。通胀飙升可能会持续下去，迫使利率上升。另一波新冠疫情可能会让市场失去乐观情绪。</blockquote> Here are five potential bubbles and the threats facing investors.<blockquote>以下是五个潜在的泡沫和投资者面临的威胁。</blockquote> House prices<blockquote>房价</blockquote> Prices hit records this summer. The UK average jumped to £266,000 – up £31,000 on the year, according to the Office for National Statistics.<blockquote>今年夏天价格创下历史新高。根据英国国家统计局的数据，英国的平均水平跃升至266,000英镑，同比增加31,000英镑。</blockquote> Britain’s boom is but one part of an extraordinarily hotglobal property market. US prices are up almost 15pc, the fastest pace in 30 years. Canada’s market is up almost 14pc. New Zealand’s property market is up almost 30pc.<blockquote>英国的繁荣只是异常火爆的全球房地产市场的一部分。美国房价上涨近15%，为30年来最快涨幅。加拿大市场增长了近14%。新西兰房地产市场上涨了近30%。</blockquote> This is all evidence to analysts at the Resolution Foundation that low interest rates, lockdown savings and shifting demand have been more important factors than Britain’s stamp duty holiday in pushing up prices.<blockquote>这些都向Resolution Foundation的分析师证明，低利率、锁定储蓄和需求变化是比英国印花税假期更重要的推高价格因素。</blockquote> The end of the tax break is unlikely to burst the bubble – but a rise in interest rates could.<blockquote>税收减免的结束不太可能打破泡沫，但利率上升可能会打破泡沫。</blockquote> Andrew Wishart at Capital Economics expects prices to rise another 7.5pc by the end of 2023 aided by lower mortgage rates. But he acknowledges the risk of Bank of England rate hikes.<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的Andrew Wishart预计，在抵押贷款利率下降的帮助下，到2023年底，房价将再上涨7.5%。但他承认英国央行加息的风险。</blockquote> “If the Monetary Policy Committee undertakes a significant tightening cycle, perhaps raising Bank Rate to 1.50pc, house prices could drop by 4pc,” he says.<blockquote>“如果货币政策委员会进行重大紧缩周期，或许将银行利率提高至1.50%，房价可能会下跌4%，”他表示。</blockquote> Bonds<blockquote>债券</blockquote> Families are not the only borrowers who have become extremely used to ultra-low rates.<blockquote>家庭并不是唯一已经非常习惯超低利率的借款人。</blockquote> Governments and businesses have also borrowed hard since the pandemic began with minimal repayments allowing them to spend without too many worries.<blockquote>自疫情爆发以来，政府和企业也大量借贷，还款很少，让他们可以不用太担心地消费。</blockquote> Low bond interest rates – yields – equal high bond prices, raising concern over the potential for a bust.<blockquote>低债券利率（收益率）等于高债券价格，引发了人们对破产可能性的担忧。</blockquote> Britain’s Government ran its biggest deficit on record in 2020-21, borrowing £298bn. Yet the cost of servicing the debt slumped to a record low of just 2pc of Treasury revenues, down from as much as 4pc in 2019-20 and 7pc in 2011-12.<blockquote>英国政府在2020-21年出现了有记录以来最大的赤字，借款2980亿英镑。然而，偿债成本跌至历史新低，仅占财政部收入的2%，低于2019-20年的4%和2011-12年的7%。</blockquote> But that has already crept up to 2.9pc as.<blockquote>但这一比例已经攀升至2.9%。</blockquote> Meanwhile businesses worldwide have borrowed heavily. Non-financial businesses’ debts in advanced economies boomed from 165pc of GDP in the final months of 2019 to 185pc by the end of 2020, according to the Bank for International Settlements. In emerging markets it jumped from 147pc to 173pc of GDP. It leaves borrowers vulnerable to a jump in rates.<blockquote>与此同时，世界各地的企业都在大量借贷。根据国际清算银行的数据，发达经济体非金融企业债务占GDP的比例从2019年最后几个月的165%飙升至2020年底的185%。在新兴市场，它占GDP的比例从147%跃升至173%。这使得借款人容易受到利率飙升的影响。</blockquote> Barry Naisbitt, economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, says the extent of the risk depends on how suddenly any rise in rates arrives.<blockquote>美国国家经济和社会研究所经济学家巴里·奈斯比特表示，风险的程度取决于加息的突然程度。</blockquote> “The average duration of UK government debt is long compared to other countries, so it would not immediately face having to roll over debts [at a higher rate],” he says. “But some countries and companies do need to roll over debts soon and could be caught out by a very sudden change.”<blockquote>“与其他国家相比，英国政府债务的平均期限较长，因此它不会立即面临必须（以更高的利率）展期债务的问题，”他表示。“但一些国家和公司确实需要尽快展期债务，并且可能会因突然的变化而陷入困境。”</blockquote> Stocks<blockquote>股票</blockquote> America’s S&amp;P 500 rapidly rebounded from the Covid slump and routinely reaches new highs.<blockquote>美国标普500从新冠疫情暴跌中迅速反弹，并经常创下新高。</blockquote> Optimism on growth is one thing. Assumingand inflation will not become a problem is another.<blockquote>对增长的乐观是一回事。假设通货膨胀不会成为问题是另一回事。</blockquote> Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management, expects a “smooth landing” as the Fed eases off the accelerator, but is wary of the hazards ahead.<blockquote>瑞银财富管理首席投资官马克·海菲尔预计，随着美联储放松油门，经济将“软着陆”，但对未来的危险持谨慎态度。</blockquote> “Every inflation report above 2pc will lead to a chorus of calls for the Fed and other central banks to rein in stimulus, so that inflation doesn’t spiral out of control,” he says.<blockquote>他表示：“每一份高于2%的通胀报告都将导致美联储和其他央行的评级齐声呼吁遏制刺激措施，以免通胀失控。”</blockquote> “At the same time, the Fed knows that overzealous attempts to tame inflation risk putting the economy and markets on course for a hard landing.”<blockquote>“与此同时，美联储知道，过于热心地试图抑制通胀可能会使经济和市场走上硬着陆的道路。”</blockquote> He expects the S&amp;P 500 to rise from almost 4,500 now to 4,800 by June 2022. But with “bad inflation”, a growth crunch or a new Covid scare – the market could tumble to 3,800, erasing almost all of 2021’s gain<blockquote>他预计，到2022年6月，标普500将从现在的近4,500人增加到4,800人。但由于“糟糕的通胀”、增长紧缩或新的新冠恐慌，市场可能会跌至3,800点，抹去2021年几乎所有涨幅</blockquote> Commodities<blockquote>商品</blockquote> The real economy is as big a risk as monetary policy, particularly when it comes to commodity prices.<blockquote>实体经济和货币政策一样是一个巨大的风险，尤其是在大宗商品价格方面。</blockquote> Copper offers a salutary lesson to any investors who think everything has to keep rising this year.<blockquote>铜为任何认为今年一切都必须继续上涨的投资者提供了有益的教训。</blockquote> The red metal doubled in price between its spring 2020 trough and May 2021, far above pre-pandemic levels as China’s economy boomed and the net zero agenda set demand forecasts soaring. But it stumbled several times as Chinese authorities took action to cool prices, then fears of a new wave of Covid hit demand.<blockquote>随着中国经济蓬勃发展和净零议程导致需求预测飙升，这种红色金属的价格在2020年春季低谷至2021年5月期间翻了一番，远高于大流行前的水平。但随着中国当局采取行动冷却价格，随后对新一波新冠疫情的担忧打击了需求，该价格几次跌跌撞撞。</blockquote> At their low ebb this month– high by historical standards, but a sign of how fast a booming market can change.<blockquote>本月处于低谷——按照历史标准来看是高位，但这表明蓬勃发展的市场变化速度有多快。</blockquote> Bitcoin<blockquote>比特币</blockquote> If real world assets are not enough,appears to be on another tear, rising close to $50,000 in recent days from a July low of below $30,000. In April it was more than $60,000.<blockquote>如果现实世界的资产还不够，似乎又在上涨，最近几天从7月份低于30,000美元的低点升至接近50,000美元。4月份超过60,000美元。</blockquote> Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, has been clear about his expectations for the fashionable digital creation. “A cryptoasset is not money (hence the term cryptocurrency is misleading) and has no intrinsic value because it has no backing,” he said earlier this summer.<blockquote>英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）已经明确了他对时尚的数字创作的期望。“加密资产不是货币（因此加密货币一词具有误导性），并且没有内在价值，因为它没有支持，”他今年夏天早些时候表示。</blockquote> Its ultimate value is “highly unstable and could be nothing.”<blockquote>它的最终价值是“高度不稳定，可能什么都不是”。</blockquote> At least houses can still be lived in when a bubble pops.<blockquote>至少当泡沫破裂时，房子仍然可以居住。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/five-potential-bubbles-may-burst-113839455.html\">The Telegraph</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/five-potential-bubbles-may-burst-113839455.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122000344","content_text":"If you own your home, you may have noticed that the roof above your head has been growing more valuable at a startling rate.\nAlmost every part of the property market – some London flats excepted – is booming. Prices in June were up more than 13pc on the year,the fastest pace since 2004.\nIt is not only homes which are getting more expensive. Stocks, bonds, commodities and more have all seen sharp price moves since Covid struck.\nHeady rises in assets certainly make investors feel good and raise hopes the economy is on the right track, often in a self-reinforcing cycle.\nBut when everything is going up, twitchy markets can suddenly turn, alert for anything which could knock the rebound off course or burst what turns out to be a bubble.\nThe Federal Reserve couldbungle the end of quantitative easing, causing a 2013-style taper tantrum. Inflation’s surge could be sustained,forcing higher interest rates. Another Covid wave could shock markets out of their optimism.\nHere are five potential bubbles and the threats facing investors.\nHouse prices\nPrices hit records this summer. The UK average jumped to £266,000 – up £31,000 on the year, according to the Office for National Statistics.\nBritain’s boom is but one part of an extraordinarily hotglobal property market. US prices are up almost 15pc, the fastest pace in 30 years. Canada’s market is up almost 14pc. New Zealand’s property market is up almost 30pc.\nThis is all evidence to analysts at the Resolution Foundation that low interest rates, lockdown savings and shifting demand have been more important factors than Britain’s stamp duty holiday in pushing up prices.\nThe end of the tax break is unlikely to burst the bubble – but a rise in interest rates could.\nAndrew Wishart at Capital Economics expects prices to rise another 7.5pc by the end of 2023 aided by lower mortgage rates. But he acknowledges the risk of Bank of England rate hikes.\n“If the Monetary Policy Committee undertakes a significant tightening cycle, perhaps raising Bank Rate to 1.50pc, house prices could drop by 4pc,” he says.\nBonds\nFamilies are not the only borrowers who have become extremely used to ultra-low rates.\nGovernments and businesses have also borrowed hard since the pandemic began with minimal repayments allowing them to spend without too many worries.\nLow bond interest rates – yields – equal high bond prices, raising concern over the potential for a bust.\nBritain’s Government ran its biggest deficit on record in 2020-21, borrowing £298bn. Yet the cost of servicing the debt slumped to a record low of just 2pc of Treasury revenues, down from as much as 4pc in 2019-20 and 7pc in 2011-12.\nBut that has already crept up to 2.9pc as.\nMeanwhile businesses worldwide have borrowed heavily. Non-financial businesses’ debts in advanced economies boomed from 165pc of GDP in the final months of 2019 to 185pc by the end of 2020, according to the Bank for International Settlements. In emerging markets it jumped from 147pc to 173pc of GDP. It leaves borrowers vulnerable to a jump in rates.\nBarry Naisbitt, economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, says the extent of the risk depends on how suddenly any rise in rates arrives.\n“The average duration of UK government debt is long compared to other countries, so it would not immediately face having to roll over debts [at a higher rate],” he says. “But some countries and companies do need to roll over debts soon and could be caught out by a very sudden change.”\nStocks\nAmerica’s S&P 500 rapidly rebounded from the Covid slump and routinely reaches new highs.\nOptimism on growth is one thing. Assumingand inflation will not become a problem is another.\nMark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management, expects a “smooth landing” as the Fed eases off the accelerator, but is wary of the hazards ahead.\n“Every inflation report above 2pc will lead to a chorus of calls for the Fed and other central banks to rein in stimulus, so that inflation doesn’t spiral out of control,” he says.\n“At the same time, the Fed knows that overzealous attempts to tame inflation risk putting the economy and markets on course for a hard landing.”\nHe expects the S&P 500 to rise from almost 4,500 now to 4,800 by June 2022. But with “bad inflation”, a growth crunch or a new Covid scare – the market could tumble to 3,800, erasing almost all of 2021’s gain\nCommodities\nThe real economy is as big a risk as monetary policy, particularly when it comes to commodity prices.\nCopper offers a salutary lesson to any investors who think everything has to keep rising this year.\nThe red metal doubled in price between its spring 2020 trough and May 2021, far above pre-pandemic levels as China’s economy boomed and the net zero agenda set demand forecasts soaring. But it stumbled several times as Chinese authorities took action to cool prices, then fears of a new wave of Covid hit demand.\nAt their low ebb this month– high by historical standards, but a sign of how fast a booming market can change.\nBitcoin\nIf real world assets are not enough,appears to be on another tear, rising close to $50,000 in recent days from a July low of below $30,000. In April it was more than $60,000.\nAndrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, has been clear about his expectations for the fashionable digital creation. “A cryptoasset is not money (hence the term cryptocurrency is misleading) and has no intrinsic value because it has no backing,” he said earlier this summer.\nIts ultimate value is “highly unstable and could be nothing.”\nAt least houses can still be lived in when a bubble pops.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2888,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}