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2021-10-11

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AMD: Prepare For A Selloff<blockquote>AMD：为抛售做好准备</blockquote>

Summary AMD is the shining star of the semiconductor sector from many fundamental viewpoints. Every

AMD: Prepare For A Selloff<blockquote>AMD：为抛售做好准备</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":828744963,"tweetId":"828744963","gmtCreate":1633952317559,"gmtModify":1633952317559,"author":{"id":3574945725954257,"idStr":"3574945725954257","authorId":3574945725954257,"authorIdStr":"3574945725954257","name":"nicks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85456a6bf78b0f1c1313f64abbb3aa70","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[流泪]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[流泪]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[流泪]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828744963","repostId":1122242209,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122242209","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633938843,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122242209?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 15:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Prepare For A Selloff<blockquote>AMD：为抛售做好准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122242209","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD is the shining star of the semiconductor sector from many fundamental viewpoints.\nEvery","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>AMD is the shining star of the semiconductor sector from many fundamental viewpoints.</li> <li>Every victory for AMD is a setback for Intel; the converse is also true.</li> <li>AMD is 100% to 229% overpriced relative to the market, depending on whether you account for its tax benefits.</li> <li>October has consistently been a losing month for AMD.</li> <li>Profit from (or protect your holdings from) the statistically likely pullback via a bear ratio spread.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462c178e108d3712258ea4c46a361009\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"981\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Scott Olson/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>从许多基本面角度来看，AMD都是半导体行业的闪亮之星。</li><li>AMD的每一次胜利，都是英特尔的一次挫折；反之亦然。</li><li>AMD相对于市场定价过高100%至229%，具体取决于您是否考虑其税收优惠。</li><li>对于AMD来说，10月份一直是亏损的一个月。</li><li>通过熊市比率利差从统计上可能的回调中获利（或保护您的持股免受）。</li></ul>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> I last wrote about Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) back in April, when the stock was trading in the $70s. I was highly bullish on AMD, in part due to the Xilinx acquisition and in part due to&nbsp;being bearish on Intel(INTC). As many AMD investors know, the competition between AMD and Intel is fierce – and much of the chip game is a race to eat up competitors’ market shares.<blockquote>我上次写有关Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)的文章是在4月份，当时该股的交易价格为70多美元。我非常看好AMD，部分原因是收购Xilinx，部分原因是看跌英特尔(INTC)。正如许多AMD投资者所知，AMD和英特尔之间的竞争非常激烈——芯片游戏的大部分内容都是一场吞噬竞争对手市场份额的竞赛。</blockquote> As AMD is up 30% since my last article, I was recently asked whether AMD is still a buy, here at $100+ per share. Today, I want to answer that question. (I was also asked if INTC is still a short, it having fallen 20% since my short call – I’ll get to that question later this month.)<blockquote>由于AMD自我上一篇文章以来上涨了30%，最近有人问我AMD是否仍然值得买入，目前每股价格超过100美元。今天，我想回答这个问题。（我还被问及INTC是否仍然是空头，自我做空看涨期权以来，它已经下跌了20%-我将在本月晚些时候讨论这个问题。）</blockquote> The Long Game<blockquote>漫长的游戏</blockquote> I wanted to begin with a TLDR answer to the question as to AMD is a buy at this price, but the answer is not so simple. As you’ll see later, I believe AMD is overpriced here, but only from a short-term perspective. If you have a long-term time horizon, AMD should look cheap now, in retrospect.<blockquote>我想从TLDR回答AMD是否可以以这个价格买入的问题开始，但答案并不那么简单。正如您稍后将看到的，我认为AMD在这里定价过高，但仅从短期角度来看。如果你有一个长期的时间范围，回想起来，AMD现在应该看起来很便宜。</blockquote> If you were to evaluate AMD via a fundamental perspective, with emphasis on its metrics’ trends, you’d see performance that will inevitably justify the $100+ valuation of the stock in the near future. Over the last two years, AMD has nearly tripled its revenue, improved its profit margin from single digits to 25%, and raised its GAAP net income from $191M to $3.4B – all while doubling its R&amp;D expenses. That last part is important because increased&nbsp;R&amp;D expenses have been shown to deliver a premium in the stock; as long as R&amp;D is growing alongside income as well as revenue, the stock should continue upward as well, and short-term overboughtness will in the long-term appear relatively cheap.<blockquote>如果您从基本面角度评估AMD，重点关注其指标趋势，您会看到其业绩在不久的将来不可避免地证明该股100美元以上的估值是合理的。在过去两年中，AMD的收入几乎增加了两倍，利润率从个位数提高到25%，GAAP净利润从1.91亿美元提高到3.4 B美元，同时研发费用也翻了一番。最后一部分很重要，因为研发费用的增加已被证明会带来股票溢价；只要研发与收入和收入一起增长，该股也应该继续上涨，短期超买从长远来看会显得相对便宜。</blockquote> AMD has also been consistently outpacing the industry in its earnings growth.<blockquote>AMD的盈利增长也一直超过行业。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0afecb00b1ce8168b472b74ed155655a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Simply Wall St., with permission<blockquote>资料来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</blockquote> This is possible because of AMD eating into Intel’s market share. And AMD need not conquer the whole market. The fact that AMD is fabless gives it an edge over Intel: The more of Intel’s market share AMD nibbles at, the more difficult it becomes for Intel to gain excess profits via economies of scale. Intel relies on volume to benefit from its fabs, as fabs come with high fixed costs. Thus, AMD’s revenue and earnings have an inverse relationship with Intel’s, and with AMD’s on the upswing, Intel’s is naturally on the downswing, as seen below.<blockquote>这是可能的，因为AMD正在蚕食英特尔的市场份额。AMD不需要征服整个市场。AMD是无晶圆厂的事实使其比英特尔更具优势：AMD蚕食英特尔的市场份额越多，英特尔就越难通过规模经济获得超额利润。英特尔依靠销量从其晶圆厂中受益，因为晶圆厂的固定成本很高。因此，AMD的收入和盈利与英特尔呈反比关系，随着AMD的上升，英特尔的自然会下降，如下所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598aa5214eb37cd981db9b4c517fcea4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Simply Wall St., with permission<blockquote>资料来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</blockquote> While it is possible for Intel to stage a comeback, which would put downward pressure on AMD’s revenue and earnings, thereby also hindering the stock’s momentum, at present AMD has momentum on its side. I believe this momentum will last as long as AMD has the technical edge over Intel.<blockquote>虽然英特尔有可能卷土重来，这将给AMD的收入和盈利带来下行压力，从而也阻碍该股的势头，但目前AMD的势头对其有利。我相信，只要AMD拥有超过英特尔的技术优势，这种势头就会持续下去。</blockquote> The Short Game<blockquote>短游戏</blockquote> While the macros, market trends, and fundamentals backing AMD are all strong, the stock price has gotten ahead of the story. Again, $100 AMD will inevitably look cheap in the future, but for now, the stock price is overclocked, so to speak. While EPS has grown to an amazing extent the past few years, jumping from $0.75 to $2.85, the stock is nonetheless trading at 36.6x price-to-earnings, which is 100% higher than the market average.<blockquote>虽然支持AMD的宏观、市场趋势和基本面都很强劲，但股价已经超前了。同样，100美元的AMD在未来不可避免地看起来很便宜，但就目前而言，可以说股价超频了。尽管过去几年每股收益增长惊人，从0.75美元跃升至2.85美元，但该股的市盈率仍为36.6倍，比市场平均水平高出100%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8fedf7f6480bee8ece5130df94ee677\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Simply Wall St., with permission<blockquote>资料来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</blockquote> In addition, EPS is inflated in the short term due to AMD having taken a $1.3B tax benefit. Specifically, this tax benefit has inflated the EPS by 169%. Without this tax benefit, the price-to-earnings rises to 58.6x, or 229% higher than the market average.<blockquote>此外，由于AMD获得了$1.3 B的税收优惠，每股收益在短期内被夸大。具体来说，这项税收优惠使每股收益膨胀了169%。如果没有这项税收优惠，市盈率将升至58.6倍，比市场平均水平高出229%。</blockquote> The problem here is with valuation, not the stock itself. It’s an opportunity cost issue: You can pay 200% more for this company or buy a general market ETF. Or you could buy a sector ETF, tracking semiconductors.<blockquote>这里的问题在于估值，而不是股票本身。这是一个机会成本问题：您可以多付200%购买这家公司或购买一般市场ETF。或者您可以购买跟踪半导体的行业ETF。</blockquote> The latter option comes with fewer risks than buying AMD. For one, stocks usually mean-revert, both against their own gains and against their fundamentals. AMD is overdue for such mean reversion.<blockquote>后一种选择比购买AMD风险更小。首先，股票通常会均值回归，既不利于自身收益，也不利于基本面。AMD早就应该进行这种均值回归了。</blockquote> Second, AMD investors are negatively exposed to the risk of good news from AMD’s competitors. A new offering or strong performance from Intel’s CPUs or Nvidia’s (NVDA) GPUs could send shockwaves across the sector, negatively impacting AMD’s stock price. A sector ETF is likely to see gains in such a case.<blockquote>其次，AMD投资者面临AMD竞争对手传来好消息的风险。英特尔CPU或英伟达(NVDA)GPU的新产品或强劲性能可能会给整个行业带来冲击波，对AMD的股价产生负面影响。在这种情况下，行业ETF可能会上涨。</blockquote> Third, AMD is highly exposed to market risk. It has a beta of 2.0, and so holding AMD exposes you to double the volatility of the general market. Intel, in contrast, has a beta of roughly 0.5, and is thus the less risky chip stock despite being the weaker company from a growth perspective.<blockquote>第三，AMD面临的市场风险很高。它的贝塔值为2.0，因此持有AMD会使您面临整个市场双倍波动的风险。相比之下，英特尔的贝塔值约为0.5，因此尽管从增长角度来看是实力较弱的公司，但它是风险较小的芯片股。</blockquote> Over the past two months, AMD investors have not been rewarded for taking on such risk.<blockquote>在过去的两个月里，AMD投资者并没有因为承担这样的风险而获得回报。</blockquote> Seasonality<blockquote>季节性</blockquote> During my analysis of AMD, I came across something curious. October has been an awful month for AMD investors. Over the past fifteen years, while holding AMD would have led to a cumulative return of 220%, holding AMD over October would have led to an astonishing 83% loss!<blockquote>在我对AMD的分析过程中，我遇到了一些奇怪的事情。对于AMD投资者来说，十月是糟糕的一个月。在过去的十五年里，虽然持有AMD会带来220%的累计回报，但在10月份持有AMD会导致惊人的83%的损失！</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa09aca4ca7f8e634fe5c1ea73df2a95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo<blockquote>资料来源：达蒙·维瑞尔；数据来自Tiingo</blockquote> When I saw this result, I thought perhaps the result was overly influenced by AMD’s downward trajectory in the 2000s. However, when I restricted the backtest to AMD’s rally over the past five years, the results were still extremely bearish. While the stock rallied over 3500% since 2016, holding over October showed losses to the tune of 50%:<blockquote>当我看到这个结果时，我想也许这个结果受到了AMD在2000年代下降轨迹的过度影响。然而，当我将回溯测试限制在AMD过去五年的涨势时，结果仍然极其悲观。虽然该股自2016年以来上涨了3500%以上，但10月份持有该股的损失高达50%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf2473b904b11a1dcae5b218756de70\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo<blockquote>资料来源：达蒙·维瑞尔；数据来自Tiingo</blockquote> Such strength in seasonal patterns is rare. In my experience, such a signal is an opportunity for large profits.<blockquote>这种季节性模式的强度是罕见的。根据我的经验，这样的信号是获得巨额利润的机会。</blockquote> The Trade<blockquote>贸易</blockquote> I believe over the course of my many articles on AMD, I have made it clear that I am highly bullish on this company. That said, given the price of the stock relative to the fundamentals, mean reversion, downside risk, and strong seasonality, I believe a short position on AMD is warranted. AMD should pull back over October, and we can dip-buy back into a long-term long position on the stock.<blockquote>我相信，在我关于AMD的许多文章中，我已经明确表示我非常看好这家公司。也就是说，考虑到该股相对于基本面的价格、均值回归、下行风险和强烈的季节性，我认为有必要做空AMD。AMD应该会在10月份回调，我们可以逢低买入该股的长期多头头寸。</blockquote> Bear ratio spreads make sense here:<blockquote>空头比率利差在这里是有意义的：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Buy 1x Oct29 $105 put</li> <li>Sell 3x Oct29 $96 puts</li> </ol> At the time of writing (Oct6), the price of this spread is exactly $0. Thus it is a free spread, giving you no potential upside risk and thus works also for investors who do not wish to sell their current AMD holdings. I chose this particular spread due to the prices allowing for a free credit spread and for the $96 strike price being close to the 100-day moving average of $96.5, a price that should act as a short-term support level.<blockquote><ol><li>买入1x Oct29$105看跌期权</li><li>卖出3倍Oct29美元看跌期权</li></ol>在撰写本文时（10月6日），该价差的价格正好为0美元。因此，这是一个自由利差，不会给您带来潜在的上行风险，因此也适用于不想出售当前AMD持股的投资者。我选择这个特定的利差是因为价格允许自由信用利差，并且96美元的执行价格接近96.5美元的100天移动平均线，这个价格应该作为短期支撑位。</blockquote> Anywhere between $96 and $105 is profit region. The risk is a sudden downward selloff pushing AMD to below $96, at which point you will lose $200 for every $1 movement below $96. You can evade this situation so long as you exit your position before AMD falls below $96. The ideal situation is AMD hitting $96 exactly by the end of October, in which case you would have made $900 on your $0 investment.<blockquote>96美元到105美元之间的任何地方都是利润区域。风险是突然向下抛售，将AMD推至96美元以下，此时每跌破96美元1美元，您将损失200美元。只要在AMD跌破96美元之前退出头寸，就可以避免这种情况。理想的情况是AMD在10月底达到96美元，在这种情况下，您的0美元投资将获得900美元。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Prepare For A Selloff<blockquote>AMD：为抛售做好准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Prepare For A Selloff<blockquote>AMD：为抛售做好准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-11 15:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>AMD is the shining star of the semiconductor sector from many fundamental viewpoints.</li> <li>Every victory for AMD is a setback for Intel; the converse is also true.</li> <li>AMD is 100% to 229% overpriced relative to the market, depending on whether you account for its tax benefits.</li> <li>October has consistently been a losing month for AMD.</li> <li>Profit from (or protect your holdings from) the statistically likely pullback via a bear ratio spread.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462c178e108d3712258ea4c46a361009\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"981\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Scott Olson/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>从许多基本面角度来看，AMD都是半导体行业的闪亮之星。</li><li>AMD的每一次胜利，都是英特尔的一次挫折；反之亦然。</li><li>AMD相对于市场定价过高100%至229%，具体取决于您是否考虑其税收优惠。</li><li>对于AMD来说，10月份一直是亏损的一个月。</li><li>通过熊市比率利差从统计上可能的回调中获利（或保护您的持股免受）。</li></ul>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> I last wrote about Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) back in April, when the stock was trading in the $70s. I was highly bullish on AMD, in part due to the Xilinx acquisition and in part due to&nbsp;being bearish on Intel(INTC). As many AMD investors know, the competition between AMD and Intel is fierce – and much of the chip game is a race to eat up competitors’ market shares.<blockquote>我上次写有关Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)的文章是在4月份，当时该股的交易价格为70多美元。我非常看好AMD，部分原因是收购Xilinx，部分原因是看跌英特尔(INTC)。正如许多AMD投资者所知，AMD和英特尔之间的竞争非常激烈——芯片游戏的大部分内容都是一场吞噬竞争对手市场份额的竞赛。</blockquote> As AMD is up 30% since my last article, I was recently asked whether AMD is still a buy, here at $100+ per share. Today, I want to answer that question. (I was also asked if INTC is still a short, it having fallen 20% since my short call – I’ll get to that question later this month.)<blockquote>由于AMD自我上一篇文章以来上涨了30%，最近有人问我AMD是否仍然值得买入，目前每股价格超过100美元。今天，我想回答这个问题。（我还被问及INTC是否仍然是空头，自我做空看涨期权以来，它已经下跌了20%-我将在本月晚些时候讨论这个问题。）</blockquote> The Long Game<blockquote>漫长的游戏</blockquote> I wanted to begin with a TLDR answer to the question as to AMD is a buy at this price, but the answer is not so simple. As you’ll see later, I believe AMD is overpriced here, but only from a short-term perspective. If you have a long-term time horizon, AMD should look cheap now, in retrospect.<blockquote>我想从TLDR回答AMD是否可以以这个价格买入的问题开始，但答案并不那么简单。正如您稍后将看到的，我认为AMD在这里定价过高，但仅从短期角度来看。如果你有一个长期的时间范围，回想起来，AMD现在应该看起来很便宜。</blockquote> If you were to evaluate AMD via a fundamental perspective, with emphasis on its metrics’ trends, you’d see performance that will inevitably justify the $100+ valuation of the stock in the near future. Over the last two years, AMD has nearly tripled its revenue, improved its profit margin from single digits to 25%, and raised its GAAP net income from $191M to $3.4B – all while doubling its R&amp;D expenses. That last part is important because increased&nbsp;R&amp;D expenses have been shown to deliver a premium in the stock; as long as R&amp;D is growing alongside income as well as revenue, the stock should continue upward as well, and short-term overboughtness will in the long-term appear relatively cheap.<blockquote>如果您从基本面角度评估AMD，重点关注其指标趋势，您会看到其业绩在不久的将来不可避免地证明该股100美元以上的估值是合理的。在过去两年中，AMD的收入几乎增加了两倍，利润率从个位数提高到25%，GAAP净利润从1.91亿美元提高到3.4 B美元，同时研发费用也翻了一番。最后一部分很重要，因为研发费用的增加已被证明会带来股票溢价；只要研发与收入和收入一起增长，该股也应该继续上涨，短期超买从长远来看会显得相对便宜。</blockquote> AMD has also been consistently outpacing the industry in its earnings growth.<blockquote>AMD的盈利增长也一直超过行业。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0afecb00b1ce8168b472b74ed155655a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Simply Wall St., with permission<blockquote>资料来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</blockquote> This is possible because of AMD eating into Intel’s market share. And AMD need not conquer the whole market. The fact that AMD is fabless gives it an edge over Intel: The more of Intel’s market share AMD nibbles at, the more difficult it becomes for Intel to gain excess profits via economies of scale. Intel relies on volume to benefit from its fabs, as fabs come with high fixed costs. Thus, AMD’s revenue and earnings have an inverse relationship with Intel’s, and with AMD’s on the upswing, Intel’s is naturally on the downswing, as seen below.<blockquote>这是可能的，因为AMD正在蚕食英特尔的市场份额。AMD不需要征服整个市场。AMD是无晶圆厂的事实使其比英特尔更具优势：AMD蚕食英特尔的市场份额越多，英特尔就越难通过规模经济获得超额利润。英特尔依靠销量从其晶圆厂中受益，因为晶圆厂的固定成本很高。因此，AMD的收入和盈利与英特尔呈反比关系，随着AMD的上升，英特尔的自然会下降，如下所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598aa5214eb37cd981db9b4c517fcea4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Simply Wall St., with permission<blockquote>资料来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</blockquote> While it is possible for Intel to stage a comeback, which would put downward pressure on AMD’s revenue and earnings, thereby also hindering the stock’s momentum, at present AMD has momentum on its side. I believe this momentum will last as long as AMD has the technical edge over Intel.<blockquote>虽然英特尔有可能卷土重来，这将给AMD的收入和盈利带来下行压力，从而也阻碍该股的势头，但目前AMD的势头对其有利。我相信，只要AMD拥有超过英特尔的技术优势，这种势头就会持续下去。</blockquote> The Short Game<blockquote>短游戏</blockquote> While the macros, market trends, and fundamentals backing AMD are all strong, the stock price has gotten ahead of the story. Again, $100 AMD will inevitably look cheap in the future, but for now, the stock price is overclocked, so to speak. While EPS has grown to an amazing extent the past few years, jumping from $0.75 to $2.85, the stock is nonetheless trading at 36.6x price-to-earnings, which is 100% higher than the market average.<blockquote>虽然支持AMD的宏观、市场趋势和基本面都很强劲，但股价已经超前了。同样，100美元的AMD在未来不可避免地看起来很便宜，但就目前而言，可以说股价超频了。尽管过去几年每股收益增长惊人，从0.75美元跃升至2.85美元，但该股的市盈率仍为36.6倍，比市场平均水平高出100%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8fedf7f6480bee8ece5130df94ee677\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Simply Wall St., with permission<blockquote>资料来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</blockquote> In addition, EPS is inflated in the short term due to AMD having taken a $1.3B tax benefit. Specifically, this tax benefit has inflated the EPS by 169%. Without this tax benefit, the price-to-earnings rises to 58.6x, or 229% higher than the market average.<blockquote>此外，由于AMD获得了$1.3 B的税收优惠，每股收益在短期内被夸大。具体来说，这项税收优惠使每股收益膨胀了169%。如果没有这项税收优惠，市盈率将升至58.6倍，比市场平均水平高出229%。</blockquote> The problem here is with valuation, not the stock itself. It’s an opportunity cost issue: You can pay 200% more for this company or buy a general market ETF. Or you could buy a sector ETF, tracking semiconductors.<blockquote>这里的问题在于估值，而不是股票本身。这是一个机会成本问题：您可以多付200%购买这家公司或购买一般市场ETF。或者您可以购买跟踪半导体的行业ETF。</blockquote> The latter option comes with fewer risks than buying AMD. For one, stocks usually mean-revert, both against their own gains and against their fundamentals. AMD is overdue for such mean reversion.<blockquote>后一种选择比购买AMD风险更小。首先，股票通常会均值回归，既不利于自身收益，也不利于基本面。AMD早就应该进行这种均值回归了。</blockquote> Second, AMD investors are negatively exposed to the risk of good news from AMD’s competitors. A new offering or strong performance from Intel’s CPUs or Nvidia’s (NVDA) GPUs could send shockwaves across the sector, negatively impacting AMD’s stock price. A sector ETF is likely to see gains in such a case.<blockquote>其次，AMD投资者面临AMD竞争对手传来好消息的风险。英特尔CPU或英伟达(NVDA)GPU的新产品或强劲性能可能会给整个行业带来冲击波，对AMD的股价产生负面影响。在这种情况下，行业ETF可能会上涨。</blockquote> Third, AMD is highly exposed to market risk. It has a beta of 2.0, and so holding AMD exposes you to double the volatility of the general market. Intel, in contrast, has a beta of roughly 0.5, and is thus the less risky chip stock despite being the weaker company from a growth perspective.<blockquote>第三，AMD面临的市场风险很高。它的贝塔值为2.0，因此持有AMD会使您面临整个市场双倍波动的风险。相比之下，英特尔的贝塔值约为0.5，因此尽管从增长角度来看是实力较弱的公司，但它是风险较小的芯片股。</blockquote> Over the past two months, AMD investors have not been rewarded for taking on such risk.<blockquote>在过去的两个月里，AMD投资者并没有因为承担这样的风险而获得回报。</blockquote> Seasonality<blockquote>季节性</blockquote> During my analysis of AMD, I came across something curious. October has been an awful month for AMD investors. Over the past fifteen years, while holding AMD would have led to a cumulative return of 220%, holding AMD over October would have led to an astonishing 83% loss!<blockquote>在我对AMD的分析过程中，我遇到了一些奇怪的事情。对于AMD投资者来说，十月是糟糕的一个月。在过去的十五年里，虽然持有AMD会带来220%的累计回报，但在10月份持有AMD会导致惊人的83%的损失！</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa09aca4ca7f8e634fe5c1ea73df2a95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo<blockquote>资料来源：达蒙·维瑞尔；数据来自Tiingo</blockquote> When I saw this result, I thought perhaps the result was overly influenced by AMD’s downward trajectory in the 2000s. However, when I restricted the backtest to AMD’s rally over the past five years, the results were still extremely bearish. While the stock rallied over 3500% since 2016, holding over October showed losses to the tune of 50%:<blockquote>当我看到这个结果时，我想也许这个结果受到了AMD在2000年代下降轨迹的过度影响。然而，当我将回溯测试限制在AMD过去五年的涨势时，结果仍然极其悲观。虽然该股自2016年以来上涨了3500%以上，但10月份持有该股的损失高达50%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf2473b904b11a1dcae5b218756de70\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo<blockquote>资料来源：达蒙·维瑞尔；数据来自Tiingo</blockquote> Such strength in seasonal patterns is rare. In my experience, such a signal is an opportunity for large profits.<blockquote>这种季节性模式的强度是罕见的。根据我的经验，这样的信号是获得巨额利润的机会。</blockquote> The Trade<blockquote>贸易</blockquote> I believe over the course of my many articles on AMD, I have made it clear that I am highly bullish on this company. That said, given the price of the stock relative to the fundamentals, mean reversion, downside risk, and strong seasonality, I believe a short position on AMD is warranted. AMD should pull back over October, and we can dip-buy back into a long-term long position on the stock.<blockquote>我相信，在我关于AMD的许多文章中，我已经明确表示我非常看好这家公司。也就是说，考虑到该股相对于基本面的价格、均值回归、下行风险和强烈的季节性，我认为有必要做空AMD。AMD应该会在10月份回调，我们可以逢低买入该股的长期多头头寸。</blockquote> Bear ratio spreads make sense here:<blockquote>空头比率利差在这里是有意义的：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Buy 1x Oct29 $105 put</li> <li>Sell 3x Oct29 $96 puts</li> </ol> At the time of writing (Oct6), the price of this spread is exactly $0. Thus it is a free spread, giving you no potential upside risk and thus works also for investors who do not wish to sell their current AMD holdings. I chose this particular spread due to the prices allowing for a free credit spread and for the $96 strike price being close to the 100-day moving average of $96.5, a price that should act as a short-term support level.<blockquote><ol><li>买入1x Oct29$105看跌期权</li><li>卖出3倍Oct29美元看跌期权</li></ol>在撰写本文时（10月6日），该价差的价格正好为0美元。因此，这是一个自由利差，不会给您带来潜在的上行风险，因此也适用于不想出售当前AMD持股的投资者。我选择这个特定的利差是因为价格允许自由信用利差，并且96美元的执行价格接近96.5美元的100天移动平均线，这个价格应该作为短期支撑位。</blockquote> Anywhere between $96 and $105 is profit region. The risk is a sudden downward selloff pushing AMD to below $96, at which point you will lose $200 for every $1 movement below $96. You can evade this situation so long as you exit your position before AMD falls below $96. The ideal situation is AMD hitting $96 exactly by the end of October, in which case you would have made $900 on your $0 investment.<blockquote>96美元到105美元之间的任何地方都是利润区域。风险是突然向下抛售，将AMD推至96美元以下，此时每跌破96美元1美元，您将损失200美元。只要在AMD跌破96美元之前退出头寸，就可以避免这种情况。理想的情况是AMD在10月底达到96美元，在这种情况下，您的0美元投资将获得900美元。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459252-amd-prepare-for-a-selloff\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459252-amd-prepare-for-a-selloff","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122242209","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD is the shining star of the semiconductor sector from many fundamental viewpoints.\nEvery victory for AMD is a setback for Intel; the converse is also true.\nAMD is 100% to 229% overpriced relative to the market, depending on whether you account for its tax benefits.\nOctober has consistently been a losing month for AMD.\nProfit from (or protect your holdings from) the statistically likely pullback via a bear ratio spread.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nI last wrote about Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) back in April, when the stock was trading in the $70s. I was highly bullish on AMD, in part due to the Xilinx acquisition and in part due to being bearish on Intel(INTC). As many AMD investors know, the competition between AMD and Intel is fierce – and much of the chip game is a race to eat up competitors’ market shares.\nAs AMD is up 30% since my last article, I was recently asked whether AMD is still a buy, here at $100+ per share. Today, I want to answer that question. (I was also asked if INTC is still a short, it having fallen 20% since my short call – I’ll get to that question later this month.)\nThe Long Game\nI wanted to begin with a TLDR answer to the question as to AMD is a buy at this price, but the answer is not so simple. As you’ll see later, I believe AMD is overpriced here, but only from a short-term perspective. If you have a long-term time horizon, AMD should look cheap now, in retrospect.\nIf you were to evaluate AMD via a fundamental perspective, with emphasis on its metrics’ trends, you’d see performance that will inevitably justify the $100+ valuation of the stock in the near future. Over the last two years, AMD has nearly tripled its revenue, improved its profit margin from single digits to 25%, and raised its GAAP net income from $191M to $3.4B – all while doubling its R&D expenses. That last part is important because increased R&D expenses have been shown to deliver a premium in the stock; as long as R&D is growing alongside income as well as revenue, the stock should continue upward as well, and short-term overboughtness will in the long-term appear relatively cheap.\nAMD has also been consistently outpacing the industry in its earnings growth.\nSource: Simply Wall St., with permission\nThis is possible because of AMD eating into Intel’s market share. And AMD need not conquer the whole market. The fact that AMD is fabless gives it an edge over Intel: The more of Intel’s market share AMD nibbles at, the more difficult it becomes for Intel to gain excess profits via economies of scale. Intel relies on volume to benefit from its fabs, as fabs come with high fixed costs. Thus, AMD’s revenue and earnings have an inverse relationship with Intel’s, and with AMD’s on the upswing, Intel’s is naturally on the downswing, as seen below.\nSource: Simply Wall St., with permission\nWhile it is possible for Intel to stage a comeback, which would put downward pressure on AMD’s revenue and earnings, thereby also hindering the stock’s momentum, at present AMD has momentum on its side. I believe this momentum will last as long as AMD has the technical edge over Intel.\nThe Short Game\nWhile the macros, market trends, and fundamentals backing AMD are all strong, the stock price has gotten ahead of the story. Again, $100 AMD will inevitably look cheap in the future, but for now, the stock price is overclocked, so to speak. While EPS has grown to an amazing extent the past few years, jumping from $0.75 to $2.85, the stock is nonetheless trading at 36.6x price-to-earnings, which is 100% higher than the market average.\nSource: Simply Wall St., with permission\nIn addition, EPS is inflated in the short term due to AMD having taken a $1.3B tax benefit. Specifically, this tax benefit has inflated the EPS by 169%. Without this tax benefit, the price-to-earnings rises to 58.6x, or 229% higher than the market average.\nThe problem here is with valuation, not the stock itself. It’s an opportunity cost issue: You can pay 200% more for this company or buy a general market ETF. Or you could buy a sector ETF, tracking semiconductors.\nThe latter option comes with fewer risks than buying AMD. For one, stocks usually mean-revert, both against their own gains and against their fundamentals. AMD is overdue for such mean reversion.\nSecond, AMD investors are negatively exposed to the risk of good news from AMD’s competitors. A new offering or strong performance from Intel’s CPUs or Nvidia’s (NVDA) GPUs could send shockwaves across the sector, negatively impacting AMD’s stock price. A sector ETF is likely to see gains in such a case.\nThird, AMD is highly exposed to market risk. It has a beta of 2.0, and so holding AMD exposes you to double the volatility of the general market. Intel, in contrast, has a beta of roughly 0.5, and is thus the less risky chip stock despite being the weaker company from a growth perspective.\nOver the past two months, AMD investors have not been rewarded for taking on such risk.\nSeasonality\nDuring my analysis of AMD, I came across something curious. October has been an awful month for AMD investors. Over the past fifteen years, while holding AMD would have led to a cumulative return of 220%, holding AMD over October would have led to an astonishing 83% loss!\nSource: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo\nWhen I saw this result, I thought perhaps the result was overly influenced by AMD’s downward trajectory in the 2000s. However, when I restricted the backtest to AMD’s rally over the past five years, the results were still extremely bearish. While the stock rallied over 3500% since 2016, holding over October showed losses to the tune of 50%:\nSource: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo\nSuch strength in seasonal patterns is rare. In my experience, such a signal is an opportunity for large profits.\nThe Trade\nI believe over the course of my many articles on AMD, I have made it clear that I am highly bullish on this company. That said, given the price of the stock relative to the fundamentals, mean reversion, downside risk, and strong seasonality, I believe a short position on AMD is warranted. AMD should pull back over October, and we can dip-buy back into a long-term long position on the stock.\nBear ratio spreads make sense here:\n\nBuy 1x Oct29 $105 put\nSell 3x Oct29 $96 puts\n\nAt the time of writing (Oct6), the price of this spread is exactly $0. Thus it is a free spread, giving you no potential upside risk and thus works also for investors who do not wish to sell their current AMD holdings. I chose this particular spread due to the prices allowing for a free credit spread and for the $96 strike price being close to the 100-day moving average of $96.5, a price that should act as a short-term support level.\nAnywhere between $96 and $105 is profit region. The risk is a sudden downward selloff pushing AMD to below $96, at which point you will lose $200 for every $1 movement below $96. You can evade this situation so long as you exit your position before AMD falls below $96. The ideal situation is AMD hitting $96 exactly by the end of October, in which case you would have made $900 on your $0 investment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}