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- nicksnicks
  ·2021-10-21
  O...k....
  AMC or GME Stock: Which Is the Better Long-Term Investment?<blockquote>AMC 和 GME 股票：哪个是更好的长期投资？</blockquote>
  AMC and GameStop are the most popular meme investments
  AMC or GME Stock: Which Is the Better Long-Term Investment?<blockquote>AMC 和 GME 股票：哪个是更好的长期投资？</blockquote>
  1,933 评论
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- nicksnicks
  ·2021-10-18
  Only can hope
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,969 评论
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- nicksnicks
  ·2021-10-13
  Hmmmmm
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- nicksnicks
  ·2021-10-13
  [开心]
  EV stocks rose in Tuesday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周二早盘上涨</blockquote>
  EV stocks rose in Tuesday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,,Lucid,Nikola,Fisker,Niu Technologi
  EV stocks rose in Tuesday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周二早盘上涨</blockquote>
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- nicksnicks
  ·2021-10-11
  [流泪]
  AMD: Prepare For A Selloff<blockquote>AMD：为抛售做好准备</blockquote>
  Summary AMD is the shining star of the semiconductor sector from many fundamental viewpoints. Every
  AMD: Prepare For A Selloff<blockquote>AMD：为抛售做好准备</blockquote>
  2,545 评论
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- nicksnicks
  ·2021-10-11
  [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,321 评论
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- nicksnicks
  ·2021-10-11
  [微笑]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- nicksnicks
  ·2021-09-28
  $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$nothing has changed, stick to basics of hodl, if possible then buy and hodl
  2,598 评论
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- nicksnicks
  ·2021-09-27
  To quote AA: "Every house has a kitchen, but everyone still eats out!" What a FUD article!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- nicksnicks
  ·2021-08-12
  $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$just hodl n hodl n hodl
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13:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC or GME Stock: Which Is the Better Long-Term Investment?<blockquote>AMC 和 GME 股票：哪个是更好的长期投资？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142450583","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"AMC and GameStop are the most popular meme investments","content":"<p><div> Right out of the gate, I want to make clear I believe AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) is a terrible investment. In addition, I think GameStop(NYSE:GME) stock is also a terrible investment. So I have no ...</p><p><blockquote><div>一开始，我就想明确表示，我相信AMC院线（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）是一项糟糕的投资。此外，我认为游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）股票也是一项糟糕的投资。所以我没有……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/amc-or-gmc-stock-which-is-the-better-long-term-investment/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/amc-or-gmc-stock-which-is-the-better-long-term-investment/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC or GME Stock: Which Is the Better Long-Term Investment?<blockquote>AMC 和 GME 股票：哪个是更好的长期投资？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC or GME Stock: Which Is the Better Long-Term Investment?<blockquote>AMC 和 GME 股票：哪个是更好的长期投资？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 13:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Right out of the gate, I want to make clear I believe AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) is a terrible investment. In addition, I think GameStop(NYSE:GME) stock is also a terrible investment. So I have no ...</p><p><blockquote><div>一开始，我就想明确表示，我相信AMC院线（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）是一项糟糕的投资。此外，我认为游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）股票也是一项糟糕的投资。所以我没有……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/amc-or-gmc-stock-which-is-the-better-long-term-investment/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/amc-or-gmc-stock-which-is-the-better-long-term-investment/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/amc-or-gmc-stock-which-is-the-better-long-term-investment/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/amc-or-gmc-stock-which-is-the-better-long-term-investment/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142450583","content_text":"Right out of the gate, I want to make clear I believe AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) is a terrible investment. In addition, I think GameStop(NYSE:GME) stock is also a terrible investment. So I have no bias one way or another in this competition between the two most popular meme stocks.\nIf you want to read why I’m so bearish on AMC and GameStop, I discuss tha there and here.\nThis story is for the meme investors themselves who are looking to buy and hold for the long term. Which meme stock is likely to outperform the other in coming years? I’m putting AMC stock head-to-head with GME stock on six different measures. Together, we will determine which stock is likely the better long-term meme investment.\nRevenue Trends: AMC Stock Wins\nThis comparison is about as simple as it gets. Both AMC stock and GME stock had their revenues crushed during the 2020 pandemic. I’m looking at trailing 12-month revenue from the beginning of 2015 to the beginning of 2020. How were these companies’ revenues trending before the pandemic?\nIt turns out GameStop’s revenue peaked back in 2012. From 2015 to 2020, revenue dropped 21.1%. During the same stretch, AMC’s revenue more than doubled at 103%. If your company’s business is shrinking, it’s probably not going to be a great long-term investment. AMC stock is the clear revenue winner.\nEarnings/Losses: GME Stock Wins\nFrom 2016 through 2020, AMC generated a net loss of more than $5 billion. If you remove 2020 from the equation, AMC generated a net loss of $414.5 million from 2016 through 2019. AMC has turned a net profit in just two of the past five years.\nIn its past five fiscal years, GameStop has generated a net loss of $971.3 million. If you remove 2020 from the equation, that net loss is just $756 million. GameStop has also been profitable in two of its past five fiscal years.\nThis measure is a brutal one for both companies. Both are clearly struggling with profits, and both are still generating heavy losses as of their most recent quarterly reports. I’m going to give the earnings nod to GME stock as the winner simply because of how ugly that $4.6 billion net loss in 2020 was for AMC.\nDebt And Balance Sheet: GME Stock Wins\nAMC stock currently has $5.5 billion in total long-term debt. That long-term debt has risen by 43.7% over the past five years.\nAt the same time, GameStop currently has $47.5 million in long-term debt. Surprisingly, GameStop’s long-term debt has actually declined by 94.1% over the past five years.\nThis is another category with a clear winner. AMC has one of the worst balance sheets in the entire market, which is why it was on the brink of bankruptcy in early 2021. The company has avoided bankruptcy for the time being. But that debt and the interest associated with it will remain an albatross for AMC stock investors. GME stock wins this one.\nShareholder Dilution: GME Stock Wins\nWhen it comes to shareholder dilution, it’s another no-brainer. The reason AMC was able to avoid bankruptcy in 2021 is because meme stock traders allowed AMC to flood the market with new shares of stock to raise desperately needed capital.\nAMC’s shares outstanding are up 403% in the past five years. In that same stretch, GameStop’s outstanding share count is down 25%. GME stock is the clear winner.\nShort Interest: AMC Stock Wins\nThe entire meme stock trading fiasco started with Reddit traders deliberately triggering short squeezes. So what’s the short squeeze potential for AMC stock and GME stock these days?\nAMC currently has a short percent of float of 17.4%, according to Ortex Analytics.  GameStop’s short percent of float is currently 12.2%.\nYear-to-date, GameStop’s short interest is down 89%, while AMC’s is still up 133.5%. If either stock still has potential for another short squeeze in the near-term, its AMC stock.\nValuation: GME Stock Wins\nWithout earnings, it’s difficult to assess these two stocks from a fundamental perspective. Analysts are currently expecting GameStop to report 15 cents in EPS in fiscal 2023. AMC is not expected to be profitable through at least 2022.\nAMC stock trades at 23.5x sales compared to a price-sales ratio of just 2.5 for GME stock. In the past five years, AMC’s P/S ratio is up 1,310%, while GameStop’s is up just 693.5%.\nThese two stocks are both ridiculously overvalued based on their businesses. The only way GME stock looks attractively valued is when it is compared to AMC. GME stock wins.\nAnd the Winner Is …\nCongratulations to GME stock investors. Your meme stock appears to be a better investment than its high-profile counterpart.\nBut rather than investing in the best of the worst stocks in the market, serious long-term investors would be much better served forgetting about AMC and GameStop all together. Instead, buy and hold a low-cost S&P 500 index ETF, such as the Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF(NYSE:VOO).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850130230,"gmtCreate":1634564080850,"gmtModify":1634564081205,"author":{"id":"3574945725954257","authorId":"3574945725954257","name":"nicks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85456a6bf78b0f1c1313f64abbb3aa70","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574945725954257","idStr":"3574945725954257"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Only can hope","listText":"Only can hope","text":"Only can hope","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850130230","repostId":"2175191373","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822195880,"gmtCreate":1634098750302,"gmtModify":1634098750761,"author":{"id":"3574945725954257","authorId":"3574945725954257","name":"nicks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85456a6bf78b0f1c1313f64abbb3aa70","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574945725954257","idStr":"3574945725954257"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmmmm","listText":"Hmmmmm","text":"Hmmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822195880","repostId":"2175137215","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826784221,"gmtCreate":1634054683418,"gmtModify":1634054683564,"author":{"id":"3574945725954257","authorId":"3574945725954257","name":"nicks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85456a6bf78b0f1c1313f64abbb3aa70","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574945725954257","idStr":"3574945725954257"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826784221","repostId":"1154635938","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1154635938","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634046349,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154635938?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks rose in Tuesday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周二早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154635938","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks rose in Tuesday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,,Lucid,Nikola,Fisker,Niu Technologi","content":"<p>EV stocks rose in Tuesday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,,Lucid,Nikola,Fisker,Niu Technologies,Nikola&nbsp;and Faraday Future climbed between 1% and 5%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股周二早盘上涨。特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏汽车、Lucid、Nikola、Fisker、小牛电动、Nikola和法拉第未来上涨1%至5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9faa240c3ac5ee0c06311d580fae1d48\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla sold just over 56,000 vehicles made in China during September, the largest monthly total since it started production in Shanghai two years ago.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉9月份在华销售了5.6万多辆汽车，这是自两年前在沪投产以来的最高月度销量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks rose in Tuesday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周二早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-12 21:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks rose in Tuesday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,,Lucid,Nikola,Fisker,Niu Technologies,Nikola&nbsp;and Faraday Future climbed between 1% and 5%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股周二早盘上涨。特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏汽车、Lucid、Nikola、Fisker、小牛电动、Nikola和法拉第未来上涨1%至5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9faa240c3ac5ee0c06311d580fae1d48\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla sold just over 56,000 vehicles made in China during September, the largest monthly total since it started production in Shanghai two years ago.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉9月份在华销售了5.6万多辆汽车，这是自两年前在沪投产以来的最高月度销量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","NIU":"小牛电动","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","XPEV":"小鹏集团","FSR":"菲斯克"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154635938","content_text":"EV stocks rose in Tuesday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,,Lucid,Nikola,Fisker,Niu Technologies,Nikola and Faraday Future climbed between 1% and 5%.\n\nTesla sold just over 56,000 vehicles made in China during September, the largest monthly total since it started production in Shanghai two years ago.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"RIDE":0.9,"LCID":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"NIU":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"TSP":0.9,"ARVL":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NKLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828744963,"gmtCreate":1633952317559,"gmtModify":1633952317559,"author":{"id":"3574945725954257","authorId":"3574945725954257","name":"nicks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85456a6bf78b0f1c1313f64abbb3aa70","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574945725954257","idStr":"3574945725954257"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828744963","repostId":"1122242209","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122242209","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633938843,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122242209?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 15:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Prepare For A Selloff<blockquote>AMD：为抛售做好准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122242209","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD is the shining star of the semiconductor sector from many fundamental viewpoints.\nEvery","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD is the shining star of the semiconductor sector from many fundamental viewpoints.</li>  <li>Every victory for AMD is a setback for Intel; the converse is also true.</li>  <li>AMD is 100% to 229% overpriced relative to the market, depending on whether you account for its tax benefits.</li>  <li>October has consistently been a losing month for AMD.</li>  <li>Profit from (or protect your holdings from) the statistically likely pullback via a bear ratio spread.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462c178e108d3712258ea4c46a361009\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"981\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从许多基本面来看，AMD都是半导体行业的闪亮之星。</li><li>AMD的每一次胜利对英特尔来说都是一次挫折；反之亦然。</li><li>相对于市场，AMD 的定价高出 100% 至 229%，具体取决于您是否考虑其税收优惠。</li><li>十月对于 AMD 来说一直是亏损的月份。</li><li>通过熊市利差从统计上可能的回调中获利（或保护您的持股免受）。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) back in April, when the stock was trading in the $70s. I was highly bullish on AMD, in part due to the Xilinx acquisition and in part due to&nbsp;being bearish on Intel(INTC). As many AMD investors know, the competition between AMD and Intel is fierce – and much of the chip game is a race to eat up competitors’ market shares.</p><p><blockquote>我上一次写有关 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 的文章是在 4 月份，当时该股的交易价格为 70 美元左右。我非常看好 AMD，部分原因是收购了赛灵思，部分原因是看跌英特尔 (INTC)。许多 AMD 投资者都知道，AMD 和英特尔之间的竞争非常激烈，芯片游戏的大部分内容都是一场蚕食竞争对手市场份额的竞赛。</blockquote></p><p> As AMD is up 30% since my last article, I was recently asked whether AMD is still a buy, here at $100+ per share. Today, I want to answer that question. (I was also asked if INTC is still a short, it having fallen 20% since my short call – I’ll get to that question later this month.)</p><p><blockquote>自我上一篇文章以来，AMD 已经上涨了 30%，最近有人问我 AMD 是否仍然值得买入，每股价格为 100 美元以上。今天，我想回答这个问题。(我还被问及INTC是否仍然是空头，自从我的空头看涨期权以来，INTC已经下跌了20%--我将在本月晚些时候谈到这个问题）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Long Game</b></p><p><blockquote><b>漫长的游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> I wanted to begin with a TLDR answer to the question as to AMD is a buy at this price, but the answer is not so simple. As you’ll see later, I believe AMD is overpriced here, but only from a short-term perspective. If you have a long-term time horizon, AMD should look cheap now, in retrospect.</p><p><blockquote>我想从一个TLDR回答AMD在这个价格是否值得买入的问题开始，但答案并不那么简单。正如你稍后会看到的，我认为 AMD 在这里的定价过高，但只是从短期角度来看。如果你有一个长期的时间范围，回想起来，AMD现在应该看起来很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> If you were to evaluate AMD via a fundamental perspective, with emphasis on its metrics’ trends, you’d see performance that will inevitably justify the $100+ valuation of the stock in the near future. Over the last two years, AMD has nearly tripled its revenue, improved its profit margin from single digits to 25%, and raised its GAAP net income from $191M to $3.4B – all while doubling its R&amp;D expenses. That last part is important because increased&nbsp;R&amp;D expenses have been shown to deliver a premium in the stock; as long as R&amp;D is growing alongside income as well as revenue, the stock should continue upward as well, and short-term overboughtness will in the long-term appear relatively cheap.</p><p><blockquote>如果从基本面的角度来评估 AMD，重点关注其指标的趋势，那么在不久的将来，AMD 的业绩将不可避免地证明该股 100 美元以上的估值是合理的。在过去两年中，AMD 的收入几乎增加了两倍，利润率从个位数提高到 25%，GAAP 净利润从 1.91 亿美元提高到 34 亿美元，同时研发费用翻了一番。最后一部分很重要，因为研发费用的增加已被证明会给股票带来溢价；只要研发与收入和收入一起增长，该股也应该继续上涨，短期超买从长期来看将显得相对便宜。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has also been consistently outpacing the industry in its earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的盈利增长也一直超越行业。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0afecb00b1ce8168b472b74ed155655a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Simply Wall St., with permission</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is possible because of AMD eating into Intel’s market share. And AMD need not conquer the whole market. The fact that AMD is fabless gives it an edge over Intel: The more of Intel’s market share AMD nibbles at, the more difficult it becomes for Intel to gain excess profits via economies of scale. Intel relies on volume to benefit from its fabs, as fabs come with high fixed costs. Thus, AMD’s revenue and earnings have an inverse relationship with Intel’s, and with AMD’s on the upswing, Intel’s is naturally on the downswing, as seen below.</p><p><blockquote>这是可能的，因为 AMD 正在蚕食英特尔的市场份额。而AMD也不需要征服整个市场。AMD 没有晶圆厂的事实使其比英特尔更有优势： AMD 蚕食英特尔的市场份额越多，英特尔就越难通过规模经济获得超额利润。英特尔依靠产量从其晶圆厂中受益，因为晶圆厂的固定成本很高。因此，AMD 的收入和盈利与英特尔成反比，AMD 的收入和盈利在上升，英特尔的收入和盈利自然在下降，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598aa5214eb37cd981db9b4c517fcea4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Simply Wall St., with permission</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While it is possible for Intel to stage a comeback, which would put downward pressure on AMD’s revenue and earnings, thereby also hindering the stock’s momentum, at present AMD has momentum on its side. I believe this momentum will last as long as AMD has the technical edge over Intel.</p><p><blockquote>虽然英特尔有可能卷土重来，这将对 AMD 的收入和盈利造成下行压力，从而也阻碍了该股的发展势头，但目前 AMD 的发展势头强劲。我相信，只要AMD拥有相对于英特尔的技术优势，这种势头就会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Short Game</b></p><p><blockquote><b>简短游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> While the macros, market trends, and fundamentals backing AMD are all strong, the stock price has gotten ahead of the story. Again, $100 AMD will inevitably look cheap in the future, but for now, the stock price is overclocked, so to speak. While EPS has grown to an amazing extent the past few years, jumping from $0.75 to $2.85, the stock is nonetheless trading at 36.6x price-to-earnings, which is 100% higher than the market average.</p><p><blockquote>尽管支持 AMD 的宏观经济、市场趋势和基本面都很强劲，但股价却走在了故事的前面。同样，100美元的AMD在未来将不可避免地看起来很便宜，但就目前而言，股价可以说是超频了。尽管过去几年每股收益增长到惊人的程度，从 0.75 美元跃升至 2.85 美元，但该股的市盈率仍为 36.6 倍，比市场平均水平高出 100%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8fedf7f6480bee8ece5130df94ee677\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Simply Wall St., with permission</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, EPS is inflated in the short term due to AMD having taken a $1.3B tax benefit. Specifically, this tax benefit has inflated the EPS by 169%. Without this tax benefit, the price-to-earnings rises to 58.6x, or 229% higher than the market average.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于 AMD 享受了 $1.3B 的税收优惠，每股收益在短期内会膨胀。具体来说，这项税收优惠使每股收益膨胀了 169%。如果没有这项税收优惠，市盈率将升至 58.6 倍，比市场平均水平高出 229%。</blockquote></p><p> The problem here is with valuation, not the stock itself. It’s an opportunity cost issue: You can pay 200% more for this company or buy a general market ETF. Or you could buy a sector ETF, tracking semiconductors.</p><p><blockquote>这里的问题在于估值，而不是股票本身。这是一个机会成本问题： 你可以多花 200% 的价格购买这家公司，也可以购买一般市场 ETF。或者您可以购买跟踪半导体的行业 ETF。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The latter option comes with fewer risks than buying AMD. For one, stocks usually mean-revert, both against their own gains and against their fundamentals. AMD is overdue for such mean reversion.</p><p><blockquote>后一种选择比购买 AMD 风险更小。首先，股票通常会出现均值回归，无论是违背自身涨幅还是违背基本面。AMD早就应该实现这种均值回归了。</blockquote></p><p> Second, AMD investors are negatively exposed to the risk of good news from AMD’s competitors. A new offering or strong performance from Intel’s CPUs or Nvidia’s (NVDA) GPUs could send shockwaves across the sector, negatively impacting AMD’s stock price. A sector ETF is likely to see gains in such a case.</p><p><blockquote>其次，AMD 投资者面临着来自 AMD 竞争对手的好消息风险。英特尔 CPU 或英伟达 (NVDA) GPU 的新产品或强劲性能可能会给整个行业带来冲击波，对 AMD 的股价产生负面影响。在这种情况下，行业 ETF 可能会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Third, AMD is highly exposed to market risk. It has a beta of 2.0, and so holding AMD exposes you to double the volatility of the general market. Intel, in contrast, has a beta of roughly 0.5, and is thus the less risky chip stock despite being the weaker company from a growth perspective.</p><p><blockquote>第三，AMD高度暴露于市场风险。它的测试版为 2.0，因此持有 AMD 会使整体市场的波动性增加一倍。相比之下，英特尔的贝塔系数约为 0.5，因此尽管从增长角度来看是较弱的公司，但它是风险较小的芯片股。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past two months, AMD investors have not been rewarded for taking on such risk.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的两个月里，AMD投资者并没有因为承担这样的风险而获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seasonality</b></p><p><blockquote><b>季节性</b></blockquote></p><p> During my analysis of AMD, I came across something curious. October has been an awful month for AMD investors. Over the past fifteen years, while holding AMD would have led to a cumulative return of 220%, holding AMD over October would have led to an astonishing 83% loss!</p><p><blockquote>在分析AMD的过程中，我遇到了一些奇怪的事情。对于 AMD 投资者来说，十月是糟糕的一个月。在过去的15年里，虽然持有AMD会导致220%的累计回报率，但在10月份持有AMD会导致惊人的83%的损失!</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa09aca4ca7f8e634fe5c1ea73df2a95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：达蒙·维里亚尔；来自Tiingo的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I saw this result, I thought perhaps the result was overly influenced by AMD’s downward trajectory in the 2000s. However, when I restricted the backtest to AMD’s rally over the past five years, the results were still extremely bearish. While the stock rallied over 3500% since 2016, holding over October showed losses to the tune of 50%:</p><p><blockquote>当我看到这个结果时，我想也许这个结果受到了 AMD 在 2000 年代走下坡路的过度影响。然而，当我将回溯测试限制在 AMD 过去五年的涨势时，结果仍然极其悲观。虽然该股自 2016 年以来上涨了 3500% 以上，但 10 月份持有该股的跌幅高达 50%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf2473b904b11a1dcae5b218756de70\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：达蒙·维里亚尔；来自Tiingo的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Such strength in seasonal patterns is rare. In my experience, such a signal is an opportunity for large profits.</p><p><blockquote>这种季节性模式的强度是罕见的。根据我的经验，这样的信号是获得巨额利润的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Trade</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贸易</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe over the course of my many articles on AMD, I have made it clear that I am highly bullish on this company. That said, given the price of the stock relative to the fundamentals, mean reversion, downside risk, and strong seasonality, I believe a short position on AMD is warranted. AMD should pull back over October, and we can dip-buy back into a long-term long position on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，在我撰写的许多关于 AMD 的文章中，我已经明确表示我非常看好这家公司。也就是说，考虑到该股的价格相对于基本面、均值回归、下行风险和强烈的季节性，我认为有必要对 AMD 进行空头头寸。AMD 应该会在 10 月份回调，我们可以逢低买入该股的长期多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Bear ratio spreads make sense here:</p><p><blockquote>熊比率价差在这里是有意义的：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Buy 1x Oct29 $105 put</li>  <li>Sell 3x Oct29 $96 puts</li> </ol> At the time of writing (Oct6), the price of this spread is exactly $0. Thus it is a free spread, giving you no potential upside risk and thus works also for investors who do not wish to sell their current AMD holdings. I chose this particular spread due to the prices allowing for a free credit spread and for the $96 strike price being close to the 100-day moving average of $96.5, a price that should act as a short-term support level.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>购买 1x Oct29 $105 看跌期权</li><li>出售 3 倍 10 月 29 日 96 美元看跌期权</li></ol>在撰写本文时（10 月 6 日），该价差的价格正好为 0 美元。因此，它是一个自由价差，不会给你潜在的上行风险，因此也适用于不希望出售当前AMD持股的投资者。我选择这个特定的价差是因为价格允许自由信用价差，并且 96 美元的执行价格接近 100 天移动平均线 96.5 美元，该价格应作为短期支撑位。</blockquote></p><p> Anywhere between $96 and $105 is profit region. The risk is a sudden downward selloff pushing AMD to below $96, at which point you will lose $200 for every $1 movement below $96. You can evade this situation so long as you exit your position before AMD falls below $96. The ideal situation is AMD hitting $96 exactly by the end of October, in which case you would have made $900 on your $0 investment.</p><p><blockquote>96美元到105美元之间的任何地方都是利润区域。风险是突然向下抛售将 AMD 推至 96 美元以下，届时每低于 96 美元 1 美元，您将损失 200 美元。只要在AMD跌破96美元之前平仓，就可以规避这种情况。理想的情况是AMD在10月底达到96美元，在这种情况下，你将从0美元的投资中获得900美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Prepare For A Selloff<blockquote>AMD：为抛售做好准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Prepare For A Selloff<blockquote>AMD：为抛售做好准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-11 15:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD is the shining star of the semiconductor sector from many fundamental viewpoints.</li>  <li>Every victory for AMD is a setback for Intel; the converse is also true.</li>  <li>AMD is 100% to 229% overpriced relative to the market, depending on whether you account for its tax benefits.</li>  <li>October has consistently been a losing month for AMD.</li>  <li>Profit from (or protect your holdings from) the statistically likely pullback via a bear ratio spread.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462c178e108d3712258ea4c46a361009\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"981\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从许多基本面来看，AMD都是半导体行业的闪亮之星。</li><li>AMD的每一次胜利对英特尔来说都是一次挫折；反之亦然。</li><li>相对于市场，AMD 的定价高出 100% 至 229%，具体取决于您是否考虑其税收优惠。</li><li>十月对于 AMD 来说一直是亏损的月份。</li><li>通过熊市利差从统计上可能的回调中获利（或保护您的持股免受）。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) back in April, when the stock was trading in the $70s. I was highly bullish on AMD, in part due to the Xilinx acquisition and in part due to&nbsp;being bearish on Intel(INTC). As many AMD investors know, the competition between AMD and Intel is fierce – and much of the chip game is a race to eat up competitors’ market shares.</p><p><blockquote>我上一次写有关 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 的文章是在 4 月份，当时该股的交易价格为 70 美元左右。我非常看好 AMD，部分原因是收购了赛灵思，部分原因是看跌英特尔 (INTC)。许多 AMD 投资者都知道，AMD 和英特尔之间的竞争非常激烈，芯片游戏的大部分内容都是一场蚕食竞争对手市场份额的竞赛。</blockquote></p><p> As AMD is up 30% since my last article, I was recently asked whether AMD is still a buy, here at $100+ per share. Today, I want to answer that question. (I was also asked if INTC is still a short, it having fallen 20% since my short call – I’ll get to that question later this month.)</p><p><blockquote>自我上一篇文章以来，AMD 已经上涨了 30%，最近有人问我 AMD 是否仍然值得买入，每股价格为 100 美元以上。今天，我想回答这个问题。(我还被问及INTC是否仍然是空头，自从我的空头看涨期权以来，INTC已经下跌了20%--我将在本月晚些时候谈到这个问题）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Long Game</b></p><p><blockquote><b>漫长的游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> I wanted to begin with a TLDR answer to the question as to AMD is a buy at this price, but the answer is not so simple. As you’ll see later, I believe AMD is overpriced here, but only from a short-term perspective. If you have a long-term time horizon, AMD should look cheap now, in retrospect.</p><p><blockquote>我想从一个TLDR回答AMD在这个价格是否值得买入的问题开始，但答案并不那么简单。正如你稍后会看到的，我认为 AMD 在这里的定价过高，但只是从短期角度来看。如果你有一个长期的时间范围，回想起来，AMD现在应该看起来很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> If you were to evaluate AMD via a fundamental perspective, with emphasis on its metrics’ trends, you’d see performance that will inevitably justify the $100+ valuation of the stock in the near future. Over the last two years, AMD has nearly tripled its revenue, improved its profit margin from single digits to 25%, and raised its GAAP net income from $191M to $3.4B – all while doubling its R&amp;D expenses. That last part is important because increased&nbsp;R&amp;D expenses have been shown to deliver a premium in the stock; as long as R&amp;D is growing alongside income as well as revenue, the stock should continue upward as well, and short-term overboughtness will in the long-term appear relatively cheap.</p><p><blockquote>如果从基本面的角度来评估 AMD，重点关注其指标的趋势，那么在不久的将来，AMD 的业绩将不可避免地证明该股 100 美元以上的估值是合理的。在过去两年中，AMD 的收入几乎增加了两倍，利润率从个位数提高到 25%，GAAP 净利润从 1.91 亿美元提高到 34 亿美元，同时研发费用翻了一番。最后一部分很重要，因为研发费用的增加已被证明会给股票带来溢价；只要研发与收入和收入一起增长，该股也应该继续上涨，短期超买从长期来看将显得相对便宜。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has also been consistently outpacing the industry in its earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的盈利增长也一直超越行业。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0afecb00b1ce8168b472b74ed155655a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Simply Wall St., with permission</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is possible because of AMD eating into Intel’s market share. And AMD need not conquer the whole market. The fact that AMD is fabless gives it an edge over Intel: The more of Intel’s market share AMD nibbles at, the more difficult it becomes for Intel to gain excess profits via economies of scale. Intel relies on volume to benefit from its fabs, as fabs come with high fixed costs. Thus, AMD’s revenue and earnings have an inverse relationship with Intel’s, and with AMD’s on the upswing, Intel’s is naturally on the downswing, as seen below.</p><p><blockquote>这是可能的，因为 AMD 正在蚕食英特尔的市场份额。而AMD也不需要征服整个市场。AMD 没有晶圆厂的事实使其比英特尔更有优势： AMD 蚕食英特尔的市场份额越多，英特尔就越难通过规模经济获得超额利润。英特尔依靠产量从其晶圆厂中受益，因为晶圆厂的固定成本很高。因此，AMD 的收入和盈利与英特尔成反比，AMD 的收入和盈利在上升，英特尔的收入和盈利自然在下降，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598aa5214eb37cd981db9b4c517fcea4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Simply Wall St., with permission</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While it is possible for Intel to stage a comeback, which would put downward pressure on AMD’s revenue and earnings, thereby also hindering the stock’s momentum, at present AMD has momentum on its side. I believe this momentum will last as long as AMD has the technical edge over Intel.</p><p><blockquote>虽然英特尔有可能卷土重来，这将对 AMD 的收入和盈利造成下行压力，从而也阻碍了该股的发展势头，但目前 AMD 的发展势头强劲。我相信，只要AMD拥有相对于英特尔的技术优势，这种势头就会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Short Game</b></p><p><blockquote><b>简短游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> While the macros, market trends, and fundamentals backing AMD are all strong, the stock price has gotten ahead of the story. Again, $100 AMD will inevitably look cheap in the future, but for now, the stock price is overclocked, so to speak. While EPS has grown to an amazing extent the past few years, jumping from $0.75 to $2.85, the stock is nonetheless trading at 36.6x price-to-earnings, which is 100% higher than the market average.</p><p><blockquote>尽管支持 AMD 的宏观经济、市场趋势和基本面都很强劲，但股价却走在了故事的前面。同样，100美元的AMD在未来将不可避免地看起来很便宜，但就目前而言，股价可以说是超频了。尽管过去几年每股收益增长到惊人的程度，从 0.75 美元跃升至 2.85 美元，但该股的市盈率仍为 36.6 倍，比市场平均水平高出 100%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8fedf7f6480bee8ece5130df94ee677\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Simply Wall St., with permission</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Simply Wall St.，经许可</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, EPS is inflated in the short term due to AMD having taken a $1.3B tax benefit. Specifically, this tax benefit has inflated the EPS by 169%. Without this tax benefit, the price-to-earnings rises to 58.6x, or 229% higher than the market average.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于 AMD 享受了 $1.3B 的税收优惠，每股收益在短期内会膨胀。具体来说，这项税收优惠使每股收益膨胀了 169%。如果没有这项税收优惠，市盈率将升至 58.6 倍，比市场平均水平高出 229%。</blockquote></p><p> The problem here is with valuation, not the stock itself. It’s an opportunity cost issue: You can pay 200% more for this company or buy a general market ETF. Or you could buy a sector ETF, tracking semiconductors.</p><p><blockquote>这里的问题在于估值，而不是股票本身。这是一个机会成本问题： 你可以多花 200% 的价格购买这家公司，也可以购买一般市场 ETF。或者您可以购买跟踪半导体的行业 ETF。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The latter option comes with fewer risks than buying AMD. For one, stocks usually mean-revert, both against their own gains and against their fundamentals. AMD is overdue for such mean reversion.</p><p><blockquote>后一种选择比购买 AMD 风险更小。首先，股票通常会出现均值回归，无论是违背自身涨幅还是违背基本面。AMD早就应该实现这种均值回归了。</blockquote></p><p> Second, AMD investors are negatively exposed to the risk of good news from AMD’s competitors. A new offering or strong performance from Intel’s CPUs or Nvidia’s (NVDA) GPUs could send shockwaves across the sector, negatively impacting AMD’s stock price. A sector ETF is likely to see gains in such a case.</p><p><blockquote>其次，AMD 投资者面临着来自 AMD 竞争对手的好消息风险。英特尔 CPU 或英伟达 (NVDA) GPU 的新产品或强劲性能可能会给整个行业带来冲击波，对 AMD 的股价产生负面影响。在这种情况下，行业 ETF 可能会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Third, AMD is highly exposed to market risk. It has a beta of 2.0, and so holding AMD exposes you to double the volatility of the general market. Intel, in contrast, has a beta of roughly 0.5, and is thus the less risky chip stock despite being the weaker company from a growth perspective.</p><p><blockquote>第三，AMD高度暴露于市场风险。它的测试版为 2.0，因此持有 AMD 会使整体市场的波动性增加一倍。相比之下，英特尔的贝塔系数约为 0.5，因此尽管从增长角度来看是较弱的公司，但它是风险较小的芯片股。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past two months, AMD investors have not been rewarded for taking on such risk.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的两个月里，AMD投资者并没有因为承担这样的风险而获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seasonality</b></p><p><blockquote><b>季节性</b></blockquote></p><p> During my analysis of AMD, I came across something curious. October has been an awful month for AMD investors. Over the past fifteen years, while holding AMD would have led to a cumulative return of 220%, holding AMD over October would have led to an astonishing 83% loss!</p><p><blockquote>在分析AMD的过程中，我遇到了一些奇怪的事情。对于 AMD 投资者来说，十月是糟糕的一个月。在过去的15年里，虽然持有AMD会导致220%的累计回报率，但在10月份持有AMD会导致惊人的83%的损失!</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa09aca4ca7f8e634fe5c1ea73df2a95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：达蒙·维里亚尔；来自Tiingo的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I saw this result, I thought perhaps the result was overly influenced by AMD’s downward trajectory in the 2000s. However, when I restricted the backtest to AMD’s rally over the past five years, the results were still extremely bearish. While the stock rallied over 3500% since 2016, holding over October showed losses to the tune of 50%:</p><p><blockquote>当我看到这个结果时，我想也许这个结果受到了 AMD 在 2000 年代走下坡路的过度影响。然而，当我将回溯测试限制在 AMD 过去五年的涨势时，结果仍然极其悲观。虽然该股自 2016 年以来上涨了 3500% 以上，但 10 月份持有该股的跌幅高达 50%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf2473b904b11a1dcae5b218756de70\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：达蒙·维里亚尔；来自Tiingo的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Such strength in seasonal patterns is rare. In my experience, such a signal is an opportunity for large profits.</p><p><blockquote>这种季节性模式的强度是罕见的。根据我的经验，这样的信号是获得巨额利润的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Trade</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贸易</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe over the course of my many articles on AMD, I have made it clear that I am highly bullish on this company. That said, given the price of the stock relative to the fundamentals, mean reversion, downside risk, and strong seasonality, I believe a short position on AMD is warranted. AMD should pull back over October, and we can dip-buy back into a long-term long position on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，在我撰写的许多关于 AMD 的文章中，我已经明确表示我非常看好这家公司。也就是说，考虑到该股的价格相对于基本面、均值回归、下行风险和强烈的季节性，我认为有必要对 AMD 进行空头头寸。AMD 应该会在 10 月份回调，我们可以逢低买入该股的长期多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Bear ratio spreads make sense here:</p><p><blockquote>熊比率价差在这里是有意义的：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Buy 1x Oct29 $105 put</li>  <li>Sell 3x Oct29 $96 puts</li> </ol> At the time of writing (Oct6), the price of this spread is exactly $0. Thus it is a free spread, giving you no potential upside risk and thus works also for investors who do not wish to sell their current AMD holdings. I chose this particular spread due to the prices allowing for a free credit spread and for the $96 strike price being close to the 100-day moving average of $96.5, a price that should act as a short-term support level.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>购买 1x Oct29 $105 看跌期权</li><li>出售 3 倍 10 月 29 日 96 美元看跌期权</li></ol>在撰写本文时（10 月 6 日），该价差的价格正好为 0 美元。因此，它是一个自由价差，不会给你潜在的上行风险，因此也适用于不希望出售当前AMD持股的投资者。我选择这个特定的价差是因为价格允许自由信用价差，并且 96 美元的执行价格接近 100 天移动平均线 96.5 美元，该价格应作为短期支撑位。</blockquote></p><p> Anywhere between $96 and $105 is profit region. The risk is a sudden downward selloff pushing AMD to below $96, at which point you will lose $200 for every $1 movement below $96. You can evade this situation so long as you exit your position before AMD falls below $96. The ideal situation is AMD hitting $96 exactly by the end of October, in which case you would have made $900 on your $0 investment.</p><p><blockquote>96美元到105美元之间的任何地方都是利润区域。风险是突然向下抛售将 AMD 推至 96 美元以下，届时每低于 96 美元 1 美元，您将损失 200 美元。只要在AMD跌破96美元之前平仓，就可以规避这种情况。理想的情况是AMD在10月底达到96美元，在这种情况下，你将从0美元的投资中获得900美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459252-amd-prepare-for-a-selloff\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459252-amd-prepare-for-a-selloff","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122242209","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD is the shining star of the semiconductor sector from many fundamental viewpoints.\nEvery victory for AMD is a setback for Intel; the converse is also true.\nAMD is 100% to 229% overpriced relative to the market, depending on whether you account for its tax benefits.\nOctober has consistently been a losing month for AMD.\nProfit from (or protect your holdings from) the statistically likely pullback via a bear ratio spread.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nI last wrote about Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) back in April, when the stock was trading in the $70s. I was highly bullish on AMD, in part due to the Xilinx acquisition and in part due to being bearish on Intel(INTC). As many AMD investors know, the competition between AMD and Intel is fierce – and much of the chip game is a race to eat up competitors’ market shares.\nAs AMD is up 30% since my last article, I was recently asked whether AMD is still a buy, here at $100+ per share. Today, I want to answer that question. (I was also asked if INTC is still a short, it having fallen 20% since my short call – I’ll get to that question later this month.)\nThe Long Game\nI wanted to begin with a TLDR answer to the question as to AMD is a buy at this price, but the answer is not so simple. As you’ll see later, I believe AMD is overpriced here, but only from a short-term perspective. If you have a long-term time horizon, AMD should look cheap now, in retrospect.\nIf you were to evaluate AMD via a fundamental perspective, with emphasis on its metrics’ trends, you’d see performance that will inevitably justify the $100+ valuation of the stock in the near future. Over the last two years, AMD has nearly tripled its revenue, improved its profit margin from single digits to 25%, and raised its GAAP net income from $191M to $3.4B – all while doubling its R&D expenses. That last part is important because increased R&D expenses have been shown to deliver a premium in the stock; as long as R&D is growing alongside income as well as revenue, the stock should continue upward as well, and short-term overboughtness will in the long-term appear relatively cheap.\nAMD has also been consistently outpacing the industry in its earnings growth.\nSource: Simply Wall St., with permission\nThis is possible because of AMD eating into Intel’s market share. And AMD need not conquer the whole market. The fact that AMD is fabless gives it an edge over Intel: The more of Intel’s market share AMD nibbles at, the more difficult it becomes for Intel to gain excess profits via economies of scale. Intel relies on volume to benefit from its fabs, as fabs come with high fixed costs. Thus, AMD’s revenue and earnings have an inverse relationship with Intel’s, and with AMD’s on the upswing, Intel’s is naturally on the downswing, as seen below.\nSource: Simply Wall St., with permission\nWhile it is possible for Intel to stage a comeback, which would put downward pressure on AMD’s revenue and earnings, thereby also hindering the stock’s momentum, at present AMD has momentum on its side. I believe this momentum will last as long as AMD has the technical edge over Intel.\nThe Short Game\nWhile the macros, market trends, and fundamentals backing AMD are all strong, the stock price has gotten ahead of the story. Again, $100 AMD will inevitably look cheap in the future, but for now, the stock price is overclocked, so to speak. While EPS has grown to an amazing extent the past few years, jumping from $0.75 to $2.85, the stock is nonetheless trading at 36.6x price-to-earnings, which is 100% higher than the market average.\nSource: Simply Wall St., with permission\nIn addition, EPS is inflated in the short term due to AMD having taken a $1.3B tax benefit. Specifically, this tax benefit has inflated the EPS by 169%. Without this tax benefit, the price-to-earnings rises to 58.6x, or 229% higher than the market average.\nThe problem here is with valuation, not the stock itself. It’s an opportunity cost issue: You can pay 200% more for this company or buy a general market ETF. Or you could buy a sector ETF, tracking semiconductors.\nThe latter option comes with fewer risks than buying AMD. For one, stocks usually mean-revert, both against their own gains and against their fundamentals. AMD is overdue for such mean reversion.\nSecond, AMD investors are negatively exposed to the risk of good news from AMD’s competitors. A new offering or strong performance from Intel’s CPUs or Nvidia’s (NVDA) GPUs could send shockwaves across the sector, negatively impacting AMD’s stock price. A sector ETF is likely to see gains in such a case.\nThird, AMD is highly exposed to market risk. It has a beta of 2.0, and so holding AMD exposes you to double the volatility of the general market. Intel, in contrast, has a beta of roughly 0.5, and is thus the less risky chip stock despite being the weaker company from a growth perspective.\nOver the past two months, AMD investors have not been rewarded for taking on such risk.\nSeasonality\nDuring my analysis of AMD, I came across something curious. October has been an awful month for AMD investors. Over the past fifteen years, while holding AMD would have led to a cumulative return of 220%, holding AMD over October would have led to an astonishing 83% loss!\nSource: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo\nWhen I saw this result, I thought perhaps the result was overly influenced by AMD’s downward trajectory in the 2000s. However, when I restricted the backtest to AMD’s rally over the past five years, the results were still extremely bearish. While the stock rallied over 3500% since 2016, holding over October showed losses to the tune of 50%:\nSource: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo\nSuch strength in seasonal patterns is rare. In my experience, such a signal is an opportunity for large profits.\nThe Trade\nI believe over the course of my many articles on AMD, I have made it clear that I am highly bullish on this company. That said, given the price of the stock relative to the fundamentals, mean reversion, downside risk, and strong seasonality, I believe a short position on AMD is warranted. AMD should pull back over October, and we can dip-buy back into a long-term long position on the stock.\nBear ratio spreads make sense here:\n\nBuy 1x Oct29 $105 put\nSell 3x Oct29 $96 puts\n\nAt the time of writing (Oct6), the price of this spread is exactly $0. Thus it is a free spread, giving you no potential upside risk and thus works also for investors who do not wish to sell their current AMD holdings. I chose this particular spread due to the prices allowing for a free credit spread and for the $96 strike price being close to the 100-day moving average of $96.5, a price that should act as a short-term support level.\nAnywhere between $96 and $105 is profit region. The risk is a sudden downward selloff pushing AMD to below $96, at which point you will lose $200 for every $1 movement below $96. You can evade this situation so long as you exit your position before AMD falls below $96. The ideal situation is AMD hitting $96 exactly by the end of October, in which case you would have made $900 on your $0 investment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828817213,"gmtCreate":1633885136269,"gmtModify":1633885136269,"author":{"id":"3574945725954257","authorId":"3574945725954257","name":"nicks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85456a6bf78b0f1c1313f64abbb3aa70","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574945725954257","idStr":"3574945725954257"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828817213","repostId":"2174692190","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828817893,"gmtCreate":1633885084956,"gmtModify":1633885084956,"author":{"id":"3574945725954257","authorId":"3574945725954257","name":"nicks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85456a6bf78b0f1c1313f64abbb3aa70","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574945725954257","idStr":"3574945725954257"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828817893","repostId":"2174892254","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866576882,"gmtCreate":1632793742546,"gmtModify":1632797573336,"author":{"id":"3574945725954257","authorId":"3574945725954257","name":"nicks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85456a6bf78b0f1c1313f64abbb3aa70","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574945725954257","idStr":"3574945725954257"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>nothing has changed, stick to basics of hodl, if possible then buy and hodl","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>nothing has changed, stick to basics of hodl, if possible then buy and hodl","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$nothing has changed, stick to basics of hodl, if possible then buy and hodl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866576882","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866878528,"gmtCreate":1632756766064,"gmtModify":1632798038464,"author":{"id":"3574945725954257","authorId":"3574945725954257","name":"nicks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85456a6bf78b0f1c1313f64abbb3aa70","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574945725954257","idStr":"3574945725954257"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To quote AA: \"Every house has a kitchen, but everyone still eats out!\" What a FUD article!&nbsp;","listText":"To quote AA: \"Every house has a kitchen, but everyone still eats out!\" What a FUD article!&nbsp;","text":"To quote AA: \"Every house has a kitchen, but everyone still eats out!\" What a FUD article!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866878528","repostId":"2170146216","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":895930338,"gmtCreate":1628700297124,"gmtModify":1633744996401,"author":{"id":"3574945725954257","authorId":"3574945725954257","name":"nicks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85456a6bf78b0f1c1313f64abbb3aa70","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574945725954257","idStr":"3574945725954257"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>just hodl n hodl n hodl","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>just hodl n hodl n hodl","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$just hodl n hodl n hodl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895930338","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}