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yizong
2021-08-18

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A Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是必要的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote>

Summary The stock market is historically overvalued. The stock market is overbought on long-term ch

A Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是必要的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":831175159,"tweetId":"831175159","gmtCreate":1629297296471,"gmtModify":1631890005430,"author":{"id":3571636386843724,"idStr":"3571636386843724","authorId":3571636386843724,"authorIdStr":"3571636386843724","name":"yizong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3520301445bdba3e3e6d42a61717e6f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>&nbsp;yes</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>&nbsp;yes</body></html>","text":"yes","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831175159","repostId":1144088215,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144088215","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295773,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144088215?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是必要的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144088215","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe stock market is historically overvalued.\nThe stock market is overbought on long-term ch","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The stock market is historically overvalued.</li> <li>The stock market is overbought on long-term charts.</li> <li>Large caps stocks can easily correct 20%-30%, certain Meme and Zombie stocks could be much worse.</li> <li>The Fed, as always, will play a pivotal role in how deep of a decline we see, watch the taper closely.</li> <li>Raise cash quickly to the high end of your asset allocation policy.</li> </ul> Any look at an investment should start by asking about what the risks are. For context, we often look at the broader S&amp;P 500 (SPY) which represents most of the market capitalization in the U.S.<blockquote><ul><li>股市历来被高估。</li><li>从长期图表来看，股市处于超买状态。</li><li>大盘股可以轻松调整20%-30%，某些模因股和僵尸股可能会更糟。</li><li>美联储将一如既往地在我们看到的衰退深度中发挥关键作用，密切关注缩减规模。</li><li>快速筹集现金到你的资产配置政策的高端。</li></ul>任何对投资的审视都应该从询问风险开始。作为背景，我们经常关注更广泛的标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF），它代表了美国的大部分市值。</blockquote> Last year I warned that the stock market could become very overvalued. I urged caution in picking out stocks and ETFs. I also recommended Tesla (TSLA), Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the Invesco Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), so I am no uber-bear.<blockquote>去年我警告说，股市可能会变得非常高估。我敦促谨慎挑选股票和ETF。我还推荐了特斯拉(TSLA)、比特币(BTC-USD)、景顺清洁能源ETF(PBW)和方舟创新ETF(ARKK)，所以我不是超级空头。</blockquote> Today, the stock market is broadly overvalued, including both the Meme stocks and the Zombie stocks. Investor ideas on TINA - there's no alternative, FOMO - fear of missing out, and \"buy the dips\" has worked for over a year on the back of Fed stimulus.<blockquote>如今，股市普遍被高估，包括模因股和僵尸股。投资者对TINA的看法——别无选择，FOMO——害怕错过，在美联储刺激措施的支持下，“逢低买入”已经奏效了一年多。</blockquote> Now that stimulus is poised to start being reduced we can look back at history. We have been to this game before. Expect a choppy stock market to emerge imminently, if it hasn't already.<blockquote>既然刺激措施即将开始减少，我们可以回顾一下历史。我们以前看过这个比赛。预计动荡的股市即将出现，如果还没有出现的话。</blockquote> S&amp;P 500 Valuation<blockquote>标普500估值</blockquote> I have talked about excessive valuations in the stock market since around New Year’s. Here's about where we stand now.<blockquote>从新年前后开始，我就一直在谈论股市估值过高的问题。这是我们现在的处境。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f383143c5f4b2cf897f5a32c3dffb282\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> I pay special attention to Crestmont which I believe has an exceptional methodology. Here’s a combined look.<blockquote>我特别关注Crestmont，我认为它有一种特殊的方法。这是一个组合外观。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba63b9e6f3bb97de066c43c7580a7d0\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Clearly, valuations are partying like 1999. This includes the zombies that are on borrowed (literally) time. The questions are how long the party can last and which companies will crash the hardest?<blockquote>显然，估值正在像1999年一样狂欢。这包括借来（字面上）时间的僵尸。问题是这场派对能持续多久，哪些公司会崩溃得最严重？</blockquote> While I like the entire tech-driven innovation, clean energy, AI, IoT, automation and emerging space economy themes, most of the large-cap stocks are ahead of themselves. The valuations of the S&amp;P 500 reflect that.<blockquote>虽然我喜欢整个技术驱动的创新、清洁能源、人工智能、物联网、自动化和新兴太空经济主题，但大多数大盘股都超前了。标普500的估值反映了这一点。</blockquote> While I have a hard time believing a reversion to mean would drive stocks back to fair valuation by historical standards due to interest rates likely to stay lower for longer, the simple withdrawal of QE - quantitative easing could see stocks drop 20% to 30% across large-cap indexes. Certain Meme categories and Zombie stocks could be worse.<blockquote>虽然我很难相信回归均值会推动股市回到历史标准的公平估值，因为利率可能会在更长时间内保持在较低水平，但简单地退出QE量化宽松可能会导致大盘指数下跌20%至30%。某些模因类别和僵尸股可能会更糟。</blockquote> The Technical View Of The S&amp;P 500<blockquote>标普500的技术观</blockquote> This is a monthly (SPY) chart. What jumps out at you?<blockquote>这是月度（SPDR标普500指数ETF）图表。什么让你印象深刻？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d1a060559c8a7991499236ab7ee5b8\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> How about now?<blockquote>现在怎么样？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7a38531178fc1ee1e321842c8c80ca\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570890645cf8cc7eed30a3affaea8241\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> A correction is inevitable. You are playing with fire if you are chasing here.<blockquote>修正是不可避免的。如果你在这里追，你就是在玩火。</blockquote> But, if you like it hot, there might be a bit more cigar to puff on before your lips get burned.<blockquote>但是，如果你喜欢热的，在你的嘴唇被烧伤之前，可能会有更多的雪茄可以抽。</blockquote> Shooter’s daily chart shows that a correction hasn’t started yet, but there's very little room left on the upside. Again, tough to be a chaser here unless you're very adept at swing trading, especially moves measured in under a month.<blockquote>舒特的日线图显示，调整尚未开始，但上涨空间已经所剩无几。再说一次，除非你非常擅长波段交易，尤其是不到一个月的波动，否则很难成为一名追逐者。</blockquote> Shooter and I are both showing an S&amp;P 500 correction to between about 350 and as low as around 300. A lot will depend on the size and speed of the Fed taper.<blockquote>舒特和我都显示标普500修正在350到300左右之间。很大程度上取决于美联储锥度的大小和速度。</blockquote> What About The Fed?<blockquote>美联储呢？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa0280b46d20716904484e370a3d8e0\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> There's no denying the correlation of Fed balance sheet expansion and its impact on the stock market. When the Fed flattened the balance sheet in 2014 the stock market went choppy for two years.<blockquote>不可否认，美联储资产负债表扩张及其对股市影响的相关性。当美联储在2014年缩减资产负债表时，股市波动了两年。</blockquote> That was followed by cheap oil which pushed stocks up. But then, the Fed started to shrink their balance sheet outright and we got the two massive bouts of volatility in 2018. By September 2019 the repo market was collapsing and QE was restarted which again pushed stocks up.<blockquote>随后是廉价石油推高了股市。但随后，美联储开始彻底缩减资产负债表，2018年出现了两次大规模波动。到2019年9月，回购市场崩溃，QE重启，再次推高股市。</blockquote> Then COVID-19 hit causing one of the largest economic shocks in history. The Fed's response was massive bailouts that exceededthe economic damage. That explosive shock and awe response has carried the stock market since.<blockquote>然后新冠肺炎来袭，造成了历史上最大的经济冲击之一。美联储的反应是大规模救助，其规模超过了经济损失。这种爆炸性的震惊和敬畏反应推动了股市。</blockquote> The Fed has now moved from talking about tapering to talking about when to taper. The consensus is to start flattening the expansion soon. At the same time, we are at historic valuations and overbought on long-term charts. What could go wrong?<blockquote>美联储现在已经从谈论缩减转向谈论何时缩减。共识是尽快开始平抑扩张。与此同时，我们的估值处于历史高位，并且在长期图表上处于超买状态。会出什么问题？</blockquote> Interestingly, for the first time in a long time, margin debt ebbed a bit.<blockquote>有趣的是，很长一段时间以来，保证金债务首次有所退潮。</blockquote> That little tick near the bottom of the red line could just be a blip. Or it could be a sign of alligator jaws starting to close. There have been signs of reduced liquidity in recent weeks as indicated by the firming dollar. If the dollar rises to around $96 as I think is likely later this year or early next year, then stocks have a major headwind.<blockquote>红线底部附近的那个小滴答声可能只是一个信号。或者这可能是鳄鱼下巴开始闭合的迹象。最近几周出现了流动性减少的迹象，美元走强就表明了这一点。如果美元升至96美元左右（我认为可能在今年晚些时候或明年初），那么股市将面临重大阻力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa7bfa757b16de395877355efd9d751\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Investment Actions Now<blockquote>立即投资行动</blockquote> Very simply, raise cash levels to the conservative edge of your asset allocation plan. If you are retired and conservative by nature, raising cash to 50% by trimming your weakest positions most is a great idea.<blockquote>很简单，将现金水平提高到资产配置计划的保守边缘。如果你已经退休并且天生保守，通过削减你最弱的头寸将现金提高到50%是一个好主意。</blockquote> If you're more aggressive, then ramping up to a war chest of 20% cash makes a lot of sense by trimming your least attractive long-term holdings and weakest performers the past year. Often performance is a simple way to identify the weaklings in a portfolio, though clearly, it's not always that easy.<blockquote>如果您更加激进，那么通过削减过去一年中最没有吸引力的长期持股和表现最差的股票，将现金储备增加到20%是很有意义的。通常，业绩是识别投资组合中弱者的简单方法，尽管显然，这并不总是那么容易。</blockquote> In short, tighten up your asset allocation. Risk management first.<blockquote>简而言之，收紧资产配置。风险管理第一。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是必要的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是必要的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-08-18 22:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The stock market is historically overvalued.</li> <li>The stock market is overbought on long-term charts.</li> <li>Large caps stocks can easily correct 20%-30%, certain Meme and Zombie stocks could be much worse.</li> <li>The Fed, as always, will play a pivotal role in how deep of a decline we see, watch the taper closely.</li> <li>Raise cash quickly to the high end of your asset allocation policy.</li> </ul> Any look at an investment should start by asking about what the risks are. For context, we often look at the broader S&amp;P 500 (SPY) which represents most of the market capitalization in the U.S.<blockquote><ul><li>股市历来被高估。</li><li>从长期图表来看，股市处于超买状态。</li><li>大盘股可以轻松调整20%-30%，某些模因股和僵尸股可能会更糟。</li><li>美联储将一如既往地在我们看到的衰退深度中发挥关键作用，密切关注缩减规模。</li><li>快速筹集现金到你的资产配置政策的高端。</li></ul>任何对投资的审视都应该从询问风险开始。作为背景，我们经常关注更广泛的标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF），它代表了美国的大部分市值。</blockquote> Last year I warned that the stock market could become very overvalued. I urged caution in picking out stocks and ETFs. I also recommended Tesla (TSLA), Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the Invesco Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), so I am no uber-bear.<blockquote>去年我警告说，股市可能会变得非常高估。我敦促谨慎挑选股票和ETF。我还推荐了特斯拉(TSLA)、比特币(BTC-USD)、景顺清洁能源ETF(PBW)和方舟创新ETF(ARKK)，所以我不是超级空头。</blockquote> Today, the stock market is broadly overvalued, including both the Meme stocks and the Zombie stocks. Investor ideas on TINA - there's no alternative, FOMO - fear of missing out, and \"buy the dips\" has worked for over a year on the back of Fed stimulus.<blockquote>如今，股市普遍被高估，包括模因股和僵尸股。投资者对TINA的看法——别无选择，FOMO——害怕错过，在美联储刺激措施的支持下，“逢低买入”已经奏效了一年多。</blockquote> Now that stimulus is poised to start being reduced we can look back at history. We have been to this game before. Expect a choppy stock market to emerge imminently, if it hasn't already.<blockquote>既然刺激措施即将开始减少，我们可以回顾一下历史。我们以前看过这个比赛。预计动荡的股市即将出现，如果还没有出现的话。</blockquote> S&amp;P 500 Valuation<blockquote>标普500估值</blockquote> I have talked about excessive valuations in the stock market since around New Year’s. Here's about where we stand now.<blockquote>从新年前后开始，我就一直在谈论股市估值过高的问题。这是我们现在的处境。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f383143c5f4b2cf897f5a32c3dffb282\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> I pay special attention to Crestmont which I believe has an exceptional methodology. Here’s a combined look.<blockquote>我特别关注Crestmont，我认为它有一种特殊的方法。这是一个组合外观。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba63b9e6f3bb97de066c43c7580a7d0\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Clearly, valuations are partying like 1999. This includes the zombies that are on borrowed (literally) time. The questions are how long the party can last and which companies will crash the hardest?<blockquote>显然，估值正在像1999年一样狂欢。这包括借来（字面上）时间的僵尸。问题是这场派对能持续多久，哪些公司会崩溃得最严重？</blockquote> While I like the entire tech-driven innovation, clean energy, AI, IoT, automation and emerging space economy themes, most of the large-cap stocks are ahead of themselves. The valuations of the S&amp;P 500 reflect that.<blockquote>虽然我喜欢整个技术驱动的创新、清洁能源、人工智能、物联网、自动化和新兴太空经济主题，但大多数大盘股都超前了。标普500的估值反映了这一点。</blockquote> While I have a hard time believing a reversion to mean would drive stocks back to fair valuation by historical standards due to interest rates likely to stay lower for longer, the simple withdrawal of QE - quantitative easing could see stocks drop 20% to 30% across large-cap indexes. Certain Meme categories and Zombie stocks could be worse.<blockquote>虽然我很难相信回归均值会推动股市回到历史标准的公平估值，因为利率可能会在更长时间内保持在较低水平，但简单地退出QE量化宽松可能会导致大盘指数下跌20%至30%。某些模因类别和僵尸股可能会更糟。</blockquote> The Technical View Of The S&amp;P 500<blockquote>标普500的技术观</blockquote> This is a monthly (SPY) chart. What jumps out at you?<blockquote>这是月度（SPDR标普500指数ETF）图表。什么让你印象深刻？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d1a060559c8a7991499236ab7ee5b8\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> How about now?<blockquote>现在怎么样？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7a38531178fc1ee1e321842c8c80ca\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570890645cf8cc7eed30a3affaea8241\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> A correction is inevitable. You are playing with fire if you are chasing here.<blockquote>修正是不可避免的。如果你在这里追，你就是在玩火。</blockquote> But, if you like it hot, there might be a bit more cigar to puff on before your lips get burned.<blockquote>但是，如果你喜欢热的，在你的嘴唇被烧伤之前，可能会有更多的雪茄可以抽。</blockquote> Shooter’s daily chart shows that a correction hasn’t started yet, but there's very little room left on the upside. Again, tough to be a chaser here unless you're very adept at swing trading, especially moves measured in under a month.<blockquote>舒特的日线图显示，调整尚未开始，但上涨空间已经所剩无几。再说一次，除非你非常擅长波段交易，尤其是不到一个月的波动，否则很难成为一名追逐者。</blockquote> Shooter and I are both showing an S&amp;P 500 correction to between about 350 and as low as around 300. A lot will depend on the size and speed of the Fed taper.<blockquote>舒特和我都显示标普500修正在350到300左右之间。很大程度上取决于美联储锥度的大小和速度。</blockquote> What About The Fed?<blockquote>美联储呢？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa0280b46d20716904484e370a3d8e0\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> There's no denying the correlation of Fed balance sheet expansion and its impact on the stock market. When the Fed flattened the balance sheet in 2014 the stock market went choppy for two years.<blockquote>不可否认，美联储资产负债表扩张及其对股市影响的相关性。当美联储在2014年缩减资产负债表时，股市波动了两年。</blockquote> That was followed by cheap oil which pushed stocks up. But then, the Fed started to shrink their balance sheet outright and we got the two massive bouts of volatility in 2018. By September 2019 the repo market was collapsing and QE was restarted which again pushed stocks up.<blockquote>随后是廉价石油推高了股市。但随后，美联储开始彻底缩减资产负债表，2018年出现了两次大规模波动。到2019年9月，回购市场崩溃，QE重启，再次推高股市。</blockquote> Then COVID-19 hit causing one of the largest economic shocks in history. The Fed's response was massive bailouts that exceededthe economic damage. That explosive shock and awe response has carried the stock market since.<blockquote>然后新冠肺炎来袭，造成了历史上最大的经济冲击之一。美联储的反应是大规模救助，其规模超过了经济损失。这种爆炸性的震惊和敬畏反应推动了股市。</blockquote> The Fed has now moved from talking about tapering to talking about when to taper. The consensus is to start flattening the expansion soon. At the same time, we are at historic valuations and overbought on long-term charts. What could go wrong?<blockquote>美联储现在已经从谈论缩减转向谈论何时缩减。共识是尽快开始平抑扩张。与此同时，我们的估值处于历史高位，并且在长期图表上处于超买状态。会出什么问题？</blockquote> Interestingly, for the first time in a long time, margin debt ebbed a bit.<blockquote>有趣的是，很长一段时间以来，保证金债务首次有所退潮。</blockquote> That little tick near the bottom of the red line could just be a blip. Or it could be a sign of alligator jaws starting to close. There have been signs of reduced liquidity in recent weeks as indicated by the firming dollar. If the dollar rises to around $96 as I think is likely later this year or early next year, then stocks have a major headwind.<blockquote>红线底部附近的那个小滴答声可能只是一个信号。或者这可能是鳄鱼下巴开始闭合的迹象。最近几周出现了流动性减少的迹象，美元走强就表明了这一点。如果美元升至96美元左右（我认为可能在今年晚些时候或明年初），那么股市将面临重大阻力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa7bfa757b16de395877355efd9d751\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Investment Actions Now<blockquote>立即投资行动</blockquote> Very simply, raise cash levels to the conservative edge of your asset allocation plan. If you are retired and conservative by nature, raising cash to 50% by trimming your weakest positions most is a great idea.<blockquote>很简单，将现金水平提高到资产配置计划的保守边缘。如果你已经退休并且天生保守，通过削减你最弱的头寸将现金提高到50%是一个好主意。</blockquote> If you're more aggressive, then ramping up to a war chest of 20% cash makes a lot of sense by trimming your least attractive long-term holdings and weakest performers the past year. Often performance is a simple way to identify the weaklings in a portfolio, though clearly, it's not always that easy.<blockquote>如果您更加激进，那么通过削减过去一年中最没有吸引力的长期持股和表现最差的股票，将现金储备增加到20%是很有意义的。通常，业绩是识别投资组合中弱者的简单方法，尽管显然，这并不总是那么容易。</blockquote> In short, tighten up your asset allocation. Risk management first.<blockquote>简而言之，收紧资产配置。风险管理第一。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450105-a-correction-is-due-and-it-could-be-deep\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450105-a-correction-is-due-and-it-could-be-deep","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144088215","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe stock market is historically overvalued.\nThe stock market is overbought on long-term charts.\nLarge caps stocks can easily correct 20%-30%, certain Meme and Zombie stocks could be much worse.\nThe Fed, as always, will play a pivotal role in how deep of a decline we see, watch the taper closely.\nRaise cash quickly to the high end of your asset allocation policy.\n\nAny look at an investment should start by asking about what the risks are. For context, we often look at the broader S&P 500 (SPY) which represents most of the market capitalization in the U.S.\nLast year I warned that the stock market could become very overvalued. I urged caution in picking out stocks and ETFs. I also recommended Tesla (TSLA), Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the Invesco Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), so I am no uber-bear.\nToday, the stock market is broadly overvalued, including both the Meme stocks and the Zombie stocks. Investor ideas on TINA - there's no alternative, FOMO - fear of missing out, and \"buy the dips\" has worked for over a year on the back of Fed stimulus.\nNow that stimulus is poised to start being reduced we can look back at history. We have been to this game before. Expect a choppy stock market to emerge imminently, if it hasn't already.\nS&P 500 Valuation\nI have talked about excessive valuations in the stock market since around New Year’s. Here's about where we stand now.\n\nI pay special attention to Crestmont which I believe has an exceptional methodology. Here’s a combined look.\n\nClearly, valuations are partying like 1999. This includes the zombies that are on borrowed (literally) time. The questions are how long the party can last and which companies will crash the hardest?\nWhile I like the entire tech-driven innovation, clean energy, AI, IoT, automation and emerging space economy themes, most of the large-cap stocks are ahead of themselves. The valuations of the S&P 500 reflect that.\nWhile I have a hard time believing a reversion to mean would drive stocks back to fair valuation by historical standards due to interest rates likely to stay lower for longer, the simple withdrawal of QE - quantitative easing could see stocks drop 20% to 30% across large-cap indexes. Certain Meme categories and Zombie stocks could be worse.\nThe Technical View Of The S&P 500\nThis is a monthly (SPY) chart. What jumps out at you?\n\nHow about now?\n\nA correction is inevitable. You are playing with fire if you are chasing here.\nBut, if you like it hot, there might be a bit more cigar to puff on before your lips get burned.\nShooter’s daily chart shows that a correction hasn’t started yet, but there's very little room left on the upside. Again, tough to be a chaser here unless you're very adept at swing trading, especially moves measured in under a month.\nShooter and I are both showing an S&P 500 correction to between about 350 and as low as around 300. A lot will depend on the size and speed of the Fed taper.\nWhat About The Fed?\n\nThere's no denying the correlation of Fed balance sheet expansion and its impact on the stock market. When the Fed flattened the balance sheet in 2014 the stock market went choppy for two years.\nThat was followed by cheap oil which pushed stocks up. But then, the Fed started to shrink their balance sheet outright and we got the two massive bouts of volatility in 2018. By September 2019 the repo market was collapsing and QE was restarted which again pushed stocks up.\nThen COVID-19 hit causing one of the largest economic shocks in history. The Fed's response was massive bailouts that exceededthe economic damage. That explosive shock and awe response has carried the stock market since.\nThe Fed has now moved from talking about tapering to talking about when to taper. The consensus is to start flattening the expansion soon. At the same time, we are at historic valuations and overbought on long-term charts. What could go wrong?\nInterestingly, for the first time in a long time, margin debt ebbed a bit.\nThat little tick near the bottom of the red line could just be a blip. Or it could be a sign of alligator jaws starting to close. There have been signs of reduced liquidity in recent weeks as indicated by the firming dollar. If the dollar rises to around $96 as I think is likely later this year or early next year, then stocks have a major headwind.\n\nInvestment Actions Now\nVery simply, raise cash levels to the conservative edge of your asset allocation plan. If you are retired and conservative by nature, raising cash to 50% by trimming your weakest positions most is a great idea.\nIf you're more aggressive, then ramping up to a war chest of 20% cash makes a lot of sense by trimming your least attractive long-term holdings and weakest performers the past year. Often performance is a simple way to identify the weaklings in a portfolio, though clearly, it's not always that easy.\nIn short, tighten up your asset allocation. Risk management first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}